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williamglenn said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

A consensual approach cannot start by predetermining the particular outcome you are aiming for.

He was not predetermining the particular outcome but the general outcome. The particular (CU, SM, FTA etc) was open to negotiation but the general outcome (Brexit) was not.

Anabobazina said:

Completely agree. I said last night on here that most people would expect the odious Rees to say things of this nature.

In fact I was a bit shocked by it. I saw the fuss, the one liners etc, and prepared myself for what usually happens when I take the time to delve into something like this, hear the ACTUAL words, consider the context, which is that the whole thing is overblown and just nothing like as terrible as it's being made out to be.

So I clicked in and heard the following, addressed by Mogg to his interlocutor -

"I mean, if you or I were in a burning building, whatever the fire brigade told us to do, we would leave the burning building. It just seems like the common sense thing to do."

That will take some beating for ghastliness.

noneoftheabove said:

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

There wasn't a Brexit that Rory would have been able to get through parliament...other than perhaps BRINO with a referendum.

There isn't a consensus to be had pre-Brexit.

However, once this particular hurdle has been cleared I would expect the Conservatives to return to a broader, one-nation party.

At which point hopefully former Tory remainers will be willing to move on and look to the future.

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

Unfortunate is an interesting choice of word, it is not misfortune that has led us here but the deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

Anabobazina said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Anabobazina said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I doubt whether any of these campaign 'disasters' will cut through to voting intention TBH. Probably only the Rees-Mogg gaffe will be noticed by ordinary people, and they are either ardent Leavers who will forgive him anything because he's an ardent Leaver, or they are not in which case they already think he's a dork and won't be surprised to see their opinion confirmed.

Completely agree. I said last night on here that most people would expect the odious Rees to say things of this nature.

A case of "What can you expect from a pig but a grunt"? Hardly a ringing endorsement of the man.

Oh sure, but the point is it's unlikely to move public opinion because public opinion of the snivelling Rees is already very low.

It's like that old saw about libel damaging one's reputation in the eyes of right-thinking people: it is only possible if one has any reputation left to damage in the first place.

AlastairMeeks said:

I'm certainly not worried about the opinions of affluent reactionaries who are chortlingly inflicting the most severe act of self-damage that this country has experienced in living memory, while seeking to exploit the opportunities that the disaster will throw up.

I admire your willingness to be open about your identity but does it not concern you that some of your more unsavoury posts may reflect negatively on you away from here?

noneoftheabove said:

He specifically ruled out a referendum. I disagree that he couldnt get a soft Brexit through parliament.

I don't doubt for a moment he could have got BRINO through Parliament.

Which is why he was never going to be given the chance.

Fast forward 5 years and the picture will look completely different.

Boris speaking significantly better than normal. Usually he is terrible - his PMQs performances are tooth-drawing stuff. Today he is positively adequate.

This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?

Cyclefree said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

Unfortunate is an interesting choice of word, it is not misfortune that has led us here but the deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

Exactly. The loss of people like Rory Stewart is deliberate. @DavidL may bemoan it as unfortunate but he is still going to vote for the party which caused it and which prefers people like Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen and Mark Francois to represent it.

The choice available at this election is distinctly sub-optimal. But choices have to be made. I remain hopeful that once the hysteria of Brexit dies away the manifest and patent incompetence and ineptitude of those you name will curtail their careers.

dyedwoolie said:

This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?

As far as I can see he wasn’t booked, then agreed to appear, then pulled out, making it bit worse by claiming he was on another show while his chair was being interviewed (he wasn’t). I expect the Tories will try and spin the not-booked line but not sure how aggressively they can go after a perhaps-a-bit-unfair video the day after being caught out doctoring one.

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

Unfortunate is an interesting choice of word, it is not misfortune that has led us here but the deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

Exactly. The loss of people like Rory Stewart is deliberate. @DavidL may bemoan it as unfortunate but he is still going to vote for the party which caused it and which prefers people like Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen and Mark Francois to represent it.

The choice available at this election is distinctly sub-optimal. But choices have to be made. I remain hopeful that once the hysteria of Brexit dies away the manifest and patent incompetence and ineptitude of those you name will curtail their careers.

If you win and pass the deal, we'll be up straight against the deadline to decide whether to extend transition. Why will that be any different to the arguments we've been having over the last two years?

dyedwoolie said:

This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?

Rumours she is to be reported to Ofcom

She deserves to be

We need more polls to fill the vacuum of information.

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

Unfortunate is an interesting choice of word, it is not misfortune that has led us here but the deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

Exactly. The loss of people like Rory Stewart is deliberate. @DavidL may bemoan it as unfortunate but he is still going to vote for the party which caused it and which prefers people like Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen and Mark Francois to represent it.

The choice available at this election is distinctly sub-optimal. But choices have to be made. I remain hopeful that once the hysteria of Brexit dies away the manifest and patent incompetence and ineptitude of those you name will curtail their careers.

If you win and pass the deal, we'll be up straight against the deadline to decide whether to extend transition. Why will that be any different to the arguments we've been having over the last two years?

We will be out

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1192066711568166912?s=20

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

One persons 'English populist nationalist party'...

...is another persons 'respecter of the referendum result against the establishment elite'.

We get to choose our definitions next month.

Yes lets pretend the party that has been in govt the last decade and most of the last century is not the establishment elite. Nor the Eton educated PM or his lackeys such as Baron Rees-Mogg the hedge fund managing son of the editor of the Times.

How easily people are persuaded of nonsense in pursuit of this Brexit religion. Black is white and white is black as long as the temples are led by believers.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1192066711568166912?s=20

https://images.app.goo.gl/evmPjFxLoeCQLWUf6

dyedwoolie said:

Polruan said:

dyedwoolie said:

This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?

As far as I can see he wasn’t booked, then agreed to appear, then pulled out, making it bit worse by claiming he was on another show while his chair was being interviewed (he wasn’t). I expect the Tories will try and spin the not-booked line but not sure how aggressively they can go after a perhaps-a-bit-unfair video the day after being caught out doctoring one.

Be interesting to know the ins and outs. She was unusually belligerent, like something rather more confrontational had happened.

Yeah, she said she'd spoken to him a few minutes before, and he was clearly in the same building, so I suspect there was a lot more to it than "spoken to him".

Kay was royally pissed-off.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dyedwoolie said:

This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?

Rumours she is to be reported to Ofcom

She deserves to be

Not immediately obvious why: she gives all parties a hard time and offers right of reply, which on this occasion the Tories declined to use.

Charles said:

PClipp said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I wonder what treats we have in store for the rest of the day. Film of Sajid Javid urinating on a homeless man? Liz Truss launching a verbal tirade against David Attenborough? Priti Patel musing on the good side of Fred West?

The imagination of the Conservative master strategists to date has been flawless.

Is urinating on homeless people something you think about a lot?

IIRC, Mr Meeks is not a Conservative.

In 30 years I’ve never heard a Tory suggest anything remotely as unpleasant as that.

It suggests that @AlastairMeeks views fellow citizens with contempt

What a nasty man he has turned into

On a day that the PM compared Corbyn to Stalin on the front page of the Telegraph, you're having a fit of the vapours over Alastair's hyperbole ?

noneoftheabove said:

Yes lets pretend the party that has been in govt the last decade and most of the last century is not the establishment elite. Nor the Eton educated PM or his lackeys such as Baron Rees-Mogg the hedge fund managing son of the editor of the Times.

How easily people are persuaded of nonsense in pursuit of this Brexit religion. Black is white and white is black as long as the temples are led by believers.

You are sort of making my point for me.

I read your post and it screams furious remainer who would love to overturn the result of the referendum in a heartbeat.

On the subject of Brexit there is clearly little to no common ground between us which is probably representative of the country at large now.

That's why this is a fight to the metaphorical death but once it is done it's done.

Normality can return.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

Unfortunate is an interesting choice of word, it is not misfortune that has led us here but the deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

Exactly. The loss of people like Rory Stewart is deliberate. @DavidL may bemoan it as unfortunate but he is still going to vote for the party which caused it and which prefers people like Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen and Mark Francois to represent it.

The choice available at this election is distinctly sub-optimal. But choices have to be made. I remain hopeful that once the hysteria of Brexit dies away the manifest and patent incompetence and ineptitude of those you name will curtail their careers.

If you win and pass the deal, we'll be up straight against the deadline to decide whether to extend transition. Why will that be any different to the arguments we've been having over the last two years?

We will be out

And you think that will be the end of it? That Europe will not be dominating us and our news headlines for years to come?

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

Unfortunate is an interesting choice of word, it is not misfortune that has led us here but the deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

Exactly. The loss of people like Rory Stewart is deliberate. @DavidL may bemoan it as unfortunate but he is still going to vote for the party which caused it and which prefers people like Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen and Mark Francois to represent it.

The choice available at this election is distinctly sub-optimal. But choices have to be made. I remain hopeful that once the hysteria of Brexit dies away the manifest and patent incompetence and ineptitude of those you name will curtail their careers.

If you win and pass the deal, we'll be up straight against the deadline to decide whether to extend transition. Why will that be any different to the arguments we've been having over the last two years?

Because the transition will become the base of the deal. Which will suit me (and, rather more importantly, the UK) fine.

"the transition will become the base of the deal"

So no US trade deal?

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

PClipp said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I wonder what treats we have in store for the rest of the day. Film of Sajid Javid urinating on a homeless man? Liz Truss launching a verbal tirade against David Attenborough? Priti Patel musing on the good side of Fred West?

The imagination of the Conservative master strategists to date has been flawless.

Is urinating on homeless people something you think about a lot?

IIRC, Mr Meeks is not a Conservative.

In 30 years I’ve never heard a Tory suggest anything remotely as unpleasant as that.

It suggests that @AlastairMeeks views fellow citizens with contempt

What a nasty man he has turned into

On a day that the PM compared Corbyn to Stalin on the front page of the Telegraph, you're having a fit of the vapours over Alastair's hyperbole ?

Point of order - I think what Alastair was engaged in on this occasion was persiflage, not hyperbole.

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

Yes lets pretend the party that has been in govt the last decade and most of the last century is not the establishment elite. Nor the Eton educated PM or his lackeys such as Baron Rees-Mogg the hedge fund managing son of the editor of the Times.

How easily people are persuaded of nonsense in pursuit of this Brexit religion. Black is white and white is black as long as the temples are led by believers.

You are sort of making my point for me.

I read your post and it screams furious remainer who would love to overturn the result of the referendum in a heartbeat.

On the subject of Brexit there is clearly little to no common ground between us which is probably representative of the country at large now.

That's why this is a fight to the metaphorical death but once it is done it's done.

Normality can return.

At what point will it be 'done' do you think?

Polruan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dyedwoolie said:

This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?

Rumours she is to be reported to Ofcom

She deserves to be

Not immediately obvious why: she gives all parties a hard time and offers right of reply, which on this occasion the Tories declined to use.

He was on air doing a scheduled broadcast for Talk Radio (in the same building) when Kay gave him the empty chair treatment.

Kay / Sky may have tried to add a last minute interview with him as he was in the building, but her reaction seems OTT.

Maybe Kay was offended that she was stood up for a mere radio interview with Julia Hartley Beermaker.

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

Yes lets pretend the party that has been in govt the last decade and most of the last century is not the establishment elite. Nor the Eton educated PM or his lackeys such as Baron Rees-Mogg the hedge fund managing son of the editor of the Times.

How easily people are persuaded of nonsense in pursuit of this Brexit religion. Black is white and white is black as long as the temples are led by believers.

You are sort of making my point for me.

I read your post and it screams furious remainer who would love to overturn the result of the referendum in a heartbeat.

On the subject of Brexit there is clearly little to no common ground between us which is probably representative of the country at large now.

That's why this is a fight to the metaphorical death but once it is done it's done.

Normality can return.

I have been advocating a Brexit deal since one has been offered. If I was an MP I would have voted admittedly reluctantly for Mays deal or even Johnson's worse deal. In the imaginery scenario it was up to me I would have chosen SM/CU Brexit, not remain. You are not listening but misinterpreting anyone who is not of the same mindset as a furious remainer.

philiph said:

Polruan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dyedwoolie said:

This may be slightly counter intuitive but I wonder if Kay Burley might get in some hot water over this mornings antics..... aggressively no chairing someone not booked on your show in an election campaign? Shes got her gotcha moment but is it a self gotcha?

Rumours she is to be reported to Ofcom

She deserves to be

Not immediately obvious why: she gives all parties a hard time and offers right of reply, which on this occasion the Tories declined to use.

He was on air doing a scheduled broadcast for Talk Radio (in the same building) when Kay gave him the empty chair treatment.

Kay / Sky may have tries to add a last minute interview with him as he was in the building, but her reaction seems OTT.

Maybe Kay was offended that she was stood up for a mere radio interview with Julia Hartley Beermaker.

She had a list of prepared questions in her hand and proceeded to address them to an empty chair. An interview had not been arranged. Perhaps there was a cockup behind the scenes but she didn't even try to extemporise. Hardly impressive.

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party membership.

Personally I would rather Boris doesn't try and run a minority government and instead vote down any alternative suggested.

We can go back to the polls again where I would expect voters to coalesce around a single alternative.

Presumably you won't be casting your vote for the Tories then David?

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

RobD said:

Alistair said:

@RobD

By using the Lib Dem and Conservative national vote share together the Ross, Skye and Lochaber totals almost perfectly fits a linear model for predicting the LD vote.

It's so good I might need to double check I haven't fucked up somehow.

But if true then Lib Dems polling 13% in Scotland puts them on 38% of the vote in Ross Skye And Lochaber and within striking range of Blackford.

You haven't been up all night doing this, have you?

Lol, thanks to the joy of Python and scikitlearn this has been a pretty trivial exercise.

I'm pretty gobsmacked at how simple this seems, I was expecting a much more complicated relationship between the 4 parties and turnout but a straight up linear regressions explains the last 4 elections for the LD and Con in Ross Skye and Lochaber and in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine.

Now I just need to a little data lunging and I can see how well this holds across Scotland and start to bet accordingly when the polls come rolling in.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I doubt whether any of these campaign 'disasters' will cut through to voting intention TBH. Probably only the Rees-Mogg gaffe will be noticed by ordinary people, and they are either ardent Leavers who will forgive him anything because he's an ardent Leaver, or they are not in which case they already think he's a dork and won't be surprised to see their opinion confirmed.

None of this will affect the campaign, which only really starts today.

Nevertheless the Tories need to be much more disciplined for the next 5 weeks.

PaulM said:

CarlottaVance said:

What is there to decide?

Labour's ruling body, the NEC, was also considering the case of former Leicester East MP Keith Vaz and it's understood no final decision has been made on whether he can stand for the party again.

Mr Vaz was suspended by Parliament for six months after he was found to have "expressed willingness" to purchase cocaine for male prostitutes.

https://tinyurl.com/y4gqrghb

There are no criminal charges being brought, he denies it (however unconvincingly) and the CLP adopted him as a candidate. It probably depends on how the Labour rulebook is written and legal advice.

Even if true, does procuring icing sugar matter that much any more or has the Conservative leadership election moved the Overton window?

The Grenfell firefighters did their bloody best. Sure, question their commanders and their orders but do not question their commitment.

If there's one thing that utterly utterly pisses me off it's the sort of comment @nunu2 made about the rank and file officers somehow being culpable for what unfolded.
And there is far too much of that around Grenfell.

felix said:

Xtrain said:

Pulpstar said:

Now's the time to sell your story to the redtops if you've been involved with a Tory MP

Remind me is Keith Vaz standing?

More likely 'assuming the position'!

I thought he was a white goods salesman now..

Cookie said:

Point of order - I think what Alastair was engaged in on this occasion was persiflage, not hyperbole.

Looked that up - excellent word!

Will be using it at the very first opportunity.

philiph said:

He was on air doing a scheduled broadcast for Talk Radio (in the same building) when Kay gave him the empty chair treatment.

Kay / Sky may have tried to add a last minute interview with him as he was in the building, but her reaction seems OTT.

Maybe Kay was offended that she was stood up for a mere radio interview with Julia Hartley Beermaker.

I doubt there will have been a deliberate snub, especially given the start the Tory campaign has had. Much more likely it was a cock-up.

I think Kay has gone a little overboard but it will get sorted i'm sure.

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

NickPalmer said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

If that Ipsos Mori poll is new, why are the changes listed since September?

It's not. It's their Oct 25-28 poll, reheated.

Nick, any thoughts on Ashfield?

I don't know anything about the current squabble. When I was in Broxtowe next door, Ashfield politics was famously internecine with real venom within and across parties. The LibDems were the worst but Labour and Tories weren't far behind, and it was reinforced by scurrilous anonymous leaflets which were (fairly or not, who knows) generally thought to be from the BNP. It seemed to have settled down under Gloria so I'm sorry to see they're at it again.

Ashfield is so difficult to call it could have been designed by the Only Connect team.

Cyclefree said:

DavidL said:

Cyclefree said:

noneoftheabove said:

DavidL said:

noneoftheabove said:

SunnyJim said:

noneoftheabove said:

...other candidates were available who would have been far better at leading a minority govt.

Who would have stopped Brexit you mean?

They were never going to be elected by the party

Rory Stewart, for example, specifically ruled out stopping Brexit. You are misinterpreting his willingness to build consensus as stopping Brexit despite his explicit assurances to the contrary. Then making the leap that it is only possible to build consensus by stopping Brexit. His plan was Brexit with consensus through different style and language, it would have had me and plenty of former tories on board.

If Ken Clarke was a living reminder of past glories Rory Stewart was the future. He is a terrible loss to the party and indeed to politics (I know he's standing for London Mayor but I mean serious politics). If people like him cannot find a home we head down the path to ever greater division, the dialogue of the deaf and total disillusionment. Its very unfortunate.

Unfortunate is an interesting choice of word, it is not misfortune that has led us here but the deliberate shift of the Tory party from a conservative, unionist and pro business party into an English populist nationalist party that cares only about the latest polls.

Exactly. The loss of people like Rory Stewart is deliberate. @DavidL may bemoan it as unfortunate but he is still going to vote for the party which caused it and which prefers people like Priti Patel, Andrew Bridgen and Mark Francois to represent it.

The choice available at this election is distinctly sub-optimal. But choices have to be made. I remain hopeful that once the hysteria of Brexit dies away the manifest and patent incompetence and ineptitude of those you name will curtail their careers.

Why do you think that? They will have won an election on the back of votes like yours. They will see it as vindication of their views and actions. If they get the sort of majority the polls seem to indicate they may, they will be without any sort of restraint and no amount of moaning by sensible people like you will make an iota of difference. There are choices - sub-optimal ones, maybe - other than the Tories or Labour.

That is what every reluctant Tory voter needs to be aware of, that and the make up of the new Tory intake. There will be no going back to one nation conservatism. The same is true of labour.

Pulpstar said:

The Grenfell firefighters did their bloody best. Sure, question their commanders and their orders but do not question their commitment.

If there's one thing that utterly utterly pisses me off it's the sort of comment @nunu2 made about the rank and file officers somehow being culpable for what unfolded.
And there is far too much of that around Grenfell.

Oh God, please don’t let any journalists ask a Tory MP whether those at the scene should have disobeyed the orders of those in command.

nichomar said:

That is what every reluctant Tory voter needs to be aware of, that and the make up of the new Tory intake. There will be no going back to one nation conservatism. The same is true of labour.

People need to calm down a bit. Francois et al are a very public element of the Tories. They have always been there, however, and it is true that Boris has enabled them to shine, if that's the right word, for the moment.

But there is a vast swathe of Cons MPs, even allowing for the hugely regretted number stepping down, who are decent, centre right types who would no sooner think of endorsing Francois as they would of jumping off a cliff, especially a Brexit one. The Party hasn't completely transformed in a matter of days.

The rump Conservatives remain sensible and ones deserving of sensible peoples' votes. It is my belief that they won't allow the loons to take control of the keys any time soon.

AndyJS said:

"Swing state polling suggests Donald Trump's 2020 re-election chances are much better than presumed"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/04/swing-state-polling-suggests-donald-trumps-2020-re-election/

Not news to US voters. Just news to....er......the people who are meant to be reporting the news...

Cookie said:

Nigelb said:

Charles said:

PClipp said:

Charles said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I wonder what treats we have in store for the rest of the day. Film of Sajid Javid urinating on a homeless man? Liz Truss launching a verbal tirade against David Attenborough? Priti Patel musing on the good side of Fred West?

The imagination of the Conservative master strategists to date has been flawless.

Is urinating on homeless people something you think about a lot?

IIRC, Mr Meeks is not a Conservative.

In 30 years I’ve never heard a Tory suggest anything remotely as unpleasant as that.

It suggests that @AlastairMeeks views fellow citizens with contempt

What a nasty man he has turned into

On a day that the PM compared Corbyn to Stalin on the front page of the Telegraph, you're having a fit of the vapours over Alastair's hyperbole ?

Point of order - I think what Alastair was engaged in on this occasion was persiflage, not hyperbole.

You are quite right to correct me.
Though one might claim it was hyperbolic persiflage ?

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

The Grenfell firefighters did their bloody best. Sure, question their commanders and their orders but do not question their commitment.

If there's one thing that utterly utterly pisses me off it's the sort of comment @nunu2 made about the rank and file officers somehow being culpable for what unfolded.
And there is far too much of that around Grenfell.

Oh God, please don’t let any journalists ask a Tory MP whether those at the scene should have disobeyed the orders of those in command.

It stops them asking about the Mayor's cuts to the fire service.

SunnyJim said:

nichomar said:

That is what every reluctant Tory voter needs to be aware of, that and the make up of the new Tory intake. There will be no going back to one nation conservatism. The same is true of labour.

Disagree.

If politics were cricket then this election will see the T20 Brexit side out in the field looking to blast the opposition in a quick victory.

As soon as Brexit is over the line then the test match side will re-appear, with Captain Boris heading up a one-nation team, moving back to the centre of the pitch as the opposition disappear ever leftwards to the boundary ropes.

Or something.

"As soon as Brexit is over..." is the bit people are deluding themselves about.

Brexit will never be over.

Living in a marginal Lab-Con constituency, I am astonished that with just 5 weeks to go there is next to nothing so far to suggest that a general election is going on here. Just a small A5 flyer from Labour with virtually no content and a couple of pretty routine mentions for the MP and challenger in the local paper. That's it. A complete contrast from the years worth of continuous bumpf that we received in 2015 (especially from the Tories) and so far nothing even to match the more concentrated 2017 campaign.

It wasn't as though an Autumn GE wasn't highly likely and yet it is obvious that both the Conservatives and Labour have failed to take action nationally to prepare their ground game in key constituencies at a national level, relying on local parties to instigate early campaigning (or not, at least here). I excuse the LDs since there is absolutely no reason for them to mount more than a paper campaign here.

Casino_Royale said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I doubt whether any of these campaign 'disasters' will cut through to voting intention TBH. Probably only the Rees-Mogg gaffe will be noticed by ordinary people, and they are either ardent Leavers who will forgive him anything because he's an ardent Leaver, or they are not in which case they already think he's a dork and won't be surprised to see their opinion confirmed.

None of this will affect the campaign, which only really starts today.

Nevertheless the Tories need to be much more disciplined for the next 5 weeks.

The so called Starmer gaffe has lead to 820,000 views of the Tory video. I'm sure they are extremely happy with those numbers and the discussion of Labour's messy policy. That they edited the footage to dramatise their point is neither here or there.

Benpointer said:

"As soon as Brexit is over..." is the bit people are deluding themselves about.

Brexit will never be over.

I agree there will be some who would try the patience of Hiroo Onoda.

AndyJS said:

"Swing state polling suggests Donald Trump's 2020 re-election chances are much better than presumed"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/04/swing-state-polling-suggests-donald-trumps-2020-re-election/

You are someone who tries to make a virtue out of believing pre-campaign polling.

I quickly looked up the latest polling on Real Clear Politics. Biden and Warren hold big double digit leads over Trumpton in the latest polls.

Tell me, are those polls wildly 'wrong' or is this CNN analysis based on rum data?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/national_general_election/

DecrepitJohnL said:

tlg86 said:

Pulpstar said:

The Grenfell firefighters did their bloody best. Sure, question their commanders and their orders but do not question their commitment.

If there's one thing that utterly utterly pisses me off it's the sort of comment @nunu2 made about the rank and file officers somehow being culpable for what unfolded.
And there is far too much of that around Grenfell.

Oh God, please don’t let any journalists ask a Tory MP whether those at the scene should have disobeyed the orders of those in command.

It stops them asking about the Mayor's cuts to the fire service.

Oh, I'm sure that was asked....

https://youtu.be/UN3e-aYUusc