politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negativ

moonshine said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

Get Layla in for Swinson quick

Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson

If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader

He won't.

Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter

Chuka seems a nice lad. He doesn’t strike me as a leader. Depends if the Lib Dem’s are happy to sit around talking to themselves in a nice and pleasant way, or want to become the second party post Corbyn. Equally I am mystified why anyone thinks the quite peculiar seeming Layla Moran would be fairing better than Swinson.

Chuka certainly looks more like a PM than Corbyn, Pidcock and Long-Bailey

Unless The Sun have a poll (which tends to be released after midnight) that should be it for tonight's polls I think?

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

Get Layla in for Swinson quick

Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson

If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader

I think that's right but he has to win on December 12th

moonshine said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

Get Layla in for Swinson quick

Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson

If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader

He won't.

Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter

Chuka seems a nice lad. He doesn’t strike me as a leader. Depends if the Lib Dem’s are happy to sit around talking to themselves in a nice and pleasant way, or want to become the second party post Corbyn. Equally I am mystified why anyone thinks the quite peculiar seeming Layla Moran would be fairing better than Swinson.

A party purporting to be slightly left of centre cannot behave like it has under Tory Swinson

Abstaining on not selling off the NHS to Trump

Not allowing a 2 week GNU under the LOTO with one purpose of stopping No Deal

And worst of all knee jerking to Revoke

Layla LDs wouldnt have gone down this dead end.

Philip_Thompson said:

Gabs2 said:

egg said:

Gabs2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.

I doubt they are moderate on taxing billionaires more. Even Republican voters seem to like that.

I’m still doubtful billionaires pay tax.

I feel more confident they would with Warren as President.

If Warren were President and Johnson PM then yes I'm very confident we'd get more billionaires paying tax in the UK - and Ireland would too.

The US tax code, unlike most others, taxes all citizens on global income, wherever they might live. So whereas a UK citizen seeking to avoid UK income tax could decamp to Monaco or the like, a US citizen can't avoid federal tax by permamently leaving the US. They would have to revoke their citizenship, which the IRS can challenge (and did in the case of some Heinz executives who renounced their US citizenship and moved to Ireland)

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.

With Sanders and Warren leading New Hampshire and Iowa in most polls now not at the moment

I think we're being fooled by there only being two left wing candidates and about a dozen moderates. Klobuchar, Booker, O'Rourke, Yang, Castro are all on the moderate wing of the Democrats. Their votes will go to the moderate most likely to beat Warren. And the big shift that's happening right now, is that Buttigieg is grabbing that mantle from Biden.

Now, his strategy is predicated on winning in Iowa (which may well not happen), but if he does, then he'll place top two in New Hampshire, and I think consolidate the moderate vote around himself. It'll be Warren vs Buttigieg all the way to the convention. And I think he wins over her.

I'd note that there has been some recent polling to back this up: 52% of Democratic primary voters want a moderate, only 40% want someone on the left of the party.

rcs1000 said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

Get Layla in for Swinson quick

Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson

If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader

If Layla was leader now I dont think they would have knee jerked Revoke and could see them taking many LAB and CON seats.

Its wipeout under Tory Swinson

The LibDems will gain seats and increase their share of the vote under Jo Swinson.

But 2019 will also be an enormous missed opportunity for them. With a good leader (no Layla Moran was not the one), someone of Ashdown or Kennedy or Steel's calibre, they would probably have gotten in the 20s, vote share-wise, and be challenging Labour for second place.

Of course, Jo Swinson may well grow into the job, but I think she's clearly made some fairly substantial errors. There's the crazy cult of personality stuff, the leaflets with her face on it, and the revoke pledge.

The trouble they had was that they didn’t have a Paddy or a Charlie. If they’d persuaded Gina Miller to do it I reckon they’d be racing towards the high 20s or evening above 30% by now.

Or George Osborne for that matter.

egg said:

moonshine said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

Get Layla in for Swinson quick

Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson

If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader

He won't.

Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter

Chuka seems a nice lad. He doesn’t strike me as a leader. Depends if the Lib Dem’s are happy to sit around talking to themselves in a nice and pleasant way, or want to become the second party post Corbyn. Equally I am mystified why anyone thinks the quite peculiar seeming Layla Moran would be fairing better than Swinson.

Way out in front to be labour leader before he pulled out.

Counterfactual time, what if he didn’t pull out? Would Corbyn still have beaten him?

Yes. Corbyn’s victory was nothing to do with leadership. It still isn’t or he would have been out months ago. He simply isn’t a leader. He hasn’t the brains, the drive, the imagination or the skill for it.

Corbyn was elected and holds his position simply because he allows ordinary Labour members to feel they are still the propah socialists of the 80s, facing down the big issues of our time, rather than a group of politicians with an eye to the main chance of power.

Ummuna could not have competed with that. Nor should he have tried to, he would therefore have lost.

Barnesian said:

Putting latest polls into model gives:

Con 37.0% (+2.1)
Lab 25.9 (+1.5)
LD 17.0% (-1.3)
BXP 10.7% (-1.5)
Green 4.0% (-0.5)

Con 320 (+8)
Lab 224 (+2)
LD 35 (-11)

Individual English constituencies here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCm3uVr3Z6DI4nFxUjmOyKRGZPNqOLu1BMKVeZvv3T8/edit?usp=sharing

Yes being serious it's bang on. CON may or may not get an overall majority

nico67 said:

The squeeze of the Lib Dem vote has already started . They’ll be doing well to get 10% to 12% of the vote in the GE.

The squeeze is fine and welcome in 500 seats to allow Labour to come through. In the other 100 target LD seats the LD share may be going up, even if the national LD share is going down. This all looks good to me.

bigjohnowls said:

No i have that as a LD Gain TBF

Lose Norfolk North and Eastbourne in a terrible night for Tory Swinson

I doubt they'll lose Eastbourne. Their MP is practically an independent, who only just rejoined the party ahead of the election. He's promised his constituents he would vote for Brexit, and split with the LDs over that issue. I'm sure he'll make a similar promise this time around (and stick to it).

egg said:

moonshine said:

bigjohnowls said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

Get Layla in for Swinson quick

Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson

If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader

He won't.

Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter

Chuka seems a nice lad. He doesn’t strike me as a leader. Depends if the Lib Dem’s are happy to sit around talking to themselves in a nice and pleasant way, or want to become the second party post Corbyn. Equally I am mystified why anyone thinks the quite peculiar seeming Layla Moran would be fairing better than Swinson.

Way out in front to be labour leader before he pulled out.

Counterfactual time, what if he didn’t pull out? Would Corbyn still have beaten him?

With a energetically remain labour leadership 2016 result might have gone the other way.
the entryism wouldn’t have happened. The leadership office v PLP war wouldn’t have happened. The shadow cabinet would have a rather more moderate and talented look to it all this time. And PM austerity Osborne would be facing a 2020 election about 15 points down at Christmas.

What a fine decision maker the temperamental flounce Chuck is. I’m with BIgjohn, kick him out of politics.

Didn't he have skeletons in the cupboard...? Though I entirely agree. I was enthused by Chuka when he announced he was running for leader. And seriously contemplated TIG when he did that. And here I am in the LibDems having watched an interview he gave after joining where I agreed with everything he said.

In other news, back in the UK after a glorious week in Spain. Last night's family BBQ in balmy hot sultry evening followed by outdoor bar, Then fly home and its 6c and tipping down. Need to rethink the life plan so that it has far more Spain in it...

Barnesian said:

nico67 said:

The squeeze of the Lib Dem vote has already started . They’ll be doing well to get 10% to 12% of the vote in the GE.

The squeeze is fine and welcome in 500 seats to allow Labour to come through. In the other 100 target LD seats the LD share may be going up, even if the national LD share is going down. This all looks good to me.

Yes, I hope so. Fascinating looking at your model - lots of seats hanging on a knife-edge of 0-3% there. The ones I know about look plausible.

Pulpstar said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway I've stuck £200 on Labour this evening....

In the name of the Lord above, why did you do that?

Any other election Barnsley and Doncaster would be 1-100 ?

Phew I am less scared now because I value your betting views. Yes those are 1-100 real value. I thought you may have put that on LAB largest party

My PC isn't working very well. Does Layla know anything about PC maintenance?

😊😊😊

rcs1000 said:

bigjohnowls said:

No i have that as a LD Gain TBF

Lose Norfolk North and Eastbourne in a terrible night for Tory Swinson

I doubt they'll lose Eastbourne. Their MP is practically an independent, who only just rejoined the party ahead of the election. He's promised his constituents he would vote for Brexit, and split with the LDs over that issue. I'm sure he'll make a similar promise this time around (and stick to it).

He's promised to back remain this time round and been very clear about it

Good call Pulpstar I think we are 1-33 on that 1-5 is good bet

Jezza might pull it back a bit but largest party is a huge ask

NickPalmer said:

While I think Swinson has made mistakes, people are writing the LibDems off too quickly on this thread. They were always likely to be squeezed nationally and the "fight everywhere and win a majority!" plan, if it really existed, needs to be binned. But if they focus on their targets they should come out ahead.

Me and thee have had a difference of opinion. But on this I entirely agree. This year the polls have swung violently. In 2017's campaign the polls swung violently. Some people seem insistent that there will be no poll swings violent or otherwise during this campaign - which feels odd.

One example of game changing events. In a few weeks time ITV are putting Corbyn and Johnson head to head on live TV. It will be a very painful hour of TV, reinforcing to voters just why they hate the pair of them so much. My new lot have made the point that the choice of debatees of leave vs leave is absurd, but its in our interests not to be there. The more time Johnson and Corbyn have on screen smothering each other to death the better.

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

viewcode said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway I've stuck £200 on Labour this evening....

In the name of the Lord above, why did you do that?

Any other election Barnsley and Doncaster would be 1-100 ?

Oh I'm sorry, I thought you meant Labour most seats/overall majority nationwide. Sorry for the confusion.

I remember in EU2016 @Casino_Royale reported somebody doubling their bet to £20K just to settle an argument. I wanted to know if this was a similarly emotion-driven bet, hence my question about motive.

Good lord no. I have bets on all parties

Pulpstar said:

Anyway I've stuck £200 on Labour this evening. £50 on Miliband 1-2 to hold £50 Barnsley Central 2-7 and £100 vote share match bet Vs Lib Dems 1-4

Where was this 1/2 on Milliband winning. Was it a proper bookie or a betfair loon ? That makes no sense - if there really is a 33% chance of him losing that seat then either i) someone has inside info and has bet accordingly or ii) Labour are facing a ScotLab style collapse (which frankly isn't reflected in the seats betting)

I'd almost be scared to take that bet as the price seems that out of sync with everything else we know that I'd fear there must be some crazy tabloid story in the works.

PaulM said:

Pulpstar said:

Anyway I've stuck £200 on Labour this evening. £50 on Miliband 1-2 to hold £50 Barnsley Central 2-7 and £100 vote share match bet Vs Lib Dems 1-4

Where was this 1/2 on Milliband winning. Was it a proper bookie or a betfair loon ? That makes no sense - if there really is a 33% chance of him losing that seat then either i) someone has inside info and has bet accordingly or ii) Labour are facing a ScotLab style collapse (which frankly isn't reflected in the seats betting)

I'd almost be scared to take that bet as the price seems that out of sync with everything else we know that I'd fear there must be some crazy tabloid story in the works.

Skybet

Barnesian said:

Putting latest polls into model gives:

Con 37.0% (+2.1)
Lab 25.9 (+1.5)
LD 17.0% (-1.3)
BXP 10.7% (-1.5)
Green 4.0% (-0.5)

Con 320 (+8)
Lab 224 (+2)
LD 35 (-11)

Individual English constituencies here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCm3uVr3Z6DI4nFxUjmOyKRGZPNqOLu1BMKVeZvv3T8/edit?usp=sharing

Evening Barnesian

Going through your sheet I am confused where you get your headline numbers you have reported here from.

Adding up the gains an losses I see the Tories only making 4 gains overall in England on your spreadsheet. And there are no Labour gains listed at all in spite of loads of Labour losses.

Where do you expect the extra 4 Tory gains to come from and a whole load of Labour gains to compensate for their losses in England?

TheGreenMachine said:

Hi folks, what are your northern Ireland constituency predictions and whos the best bet?

Welcome to life below the line

NI always tricky to assess because it's not polled too regularly

tlg86 said:

Great tip @pulpstar - No way should Labour be the same odds of winning Doncaster North as Brighton Kemptown.

Someone else spotted it earlier but too good not to spread once we've had a bite

Barnesian said:

Putting latest polls into model gives:

Con 37.0% (+2.1)
Lab 25.9 (+1.5)
LD 17.0% (-1.3)
BXP 10.7% (-1.5)
Green 4.0% (-0.5)

Con 320 (+8)
Lab 224 (+2)
LD 35 (-11)

Individual English constituencies here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCm3uVr3Z6DI4nFxUjmOyKRGZPNqOLu1BMKVeZvv3T8/edit?usp=sharing

You still have Buckingham for the Speaker. Chalk another up for the blue column.....

Richard_Tyndall said:

Barnesian said:

Putting latest polls into model gives:

Con 37.0% (+2.1)
Lab 25.9 (+1.5)
LD 17.0% (-1.3)
BXP 10.7% (-1.5)
Green 4.0% (-0.5)

Con 320 (+8)
Lab 224 (+2)
LD 35 (-11)

Individual English constituencies here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCm3uVr3Z6DI4nFxUjmOyKRGZPNqOLu1BMKVeZvv3T8/edit?usp=sharing

Evening Barnesian

Going through your sheet I am confused where you get your headline numbers you have reported here from.

Adding up the gains an losses I see the Tories only making 4 gains overall in England on your spreadsheet. And there are no Labour gains listed at all in spite of loads of Labour losses.

Where do you expect the extra 4 Tory gains to come from and a whole load of Labour gains to compensate for their losses in England?

In my spreadsheet the Tories make 26 gains from Labour and lose 19 to the LibDems making net gain of 7. (Have you assumed that all the LibDem gains are from the Tories?)

In my model, Labour get 224 seats in GB compared with 262 last time, i.e. a net loss of 38, 30 of them in England. No gains at all in England.

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

It looks to me that the value is betting on short price favourites in the constituency bets.

If you're looking for a longer odds bet at the moment, William Hill are offering 50-1 on Sheff Utd to finish in the Top 6.

bet365

TheGreenMachine said:

Hi folks, what are your northern Ireland constituency predictions and whos the best bet?

Foyle might be interesting. Heavily nationalist seat (John Hume's old seat in Derry)
Sinn Fein won last time for the first time ever by fewer than 200 votes from SDLP. SDLP leader Colm Eastwood is their candidate. 7,000+ DUP votes, many of which used to go tactically against SF. And Aontú are standing a local doctor on a Republican anti-abortion platform which might make a difference in a close race.

Paddy Power have SDLP at 4/6 and SF at 11/10.

PaulM said:

TheGreenMachine said:

Hi folks, what are your northern Ireland constituency predictions and whos the best bet?

Foyle might be interesting. Heavily nationalist seat (John Hume's old seat in Derry)
Sinn Fein won last time for the first time ever by fewer than 200 votes from SDLP. SDLP leader Colm Eastwood is their candidate. 7,000+ DUP votes, many of which used to go tactically against SF. And Aontú are standing a local doctor on a Republican anti-abortion platform which might make a difference in a close race.

Paddy Power have SDLP at 4/6 and SF at 11/10.

I'm on SDLP to win Foyle, they were both 5-6 and my money has moved the odds.

I think he's a good thing personally.

RochdalePioneers said:

edmundintokyo said:

RochdalePioneers said:

One example of game changing events. In a few weeks time ITV are putting Corbyn and Johnson head to head on live TV. It will be a very painful hour of TV, reinforcing to voters just why they hate the pair of them so much. My new lot have made the point that the choice of debatees of leave vs leave is absurd, but its in our interests not to be there. The more time Johnson and Corbyn have on screen smothering each other to death the better.

OK, but how does Swinson even get herself on the telly at all? If Corbyn and Johnson lock her out of the debates, which I guess they can, how does she get coverage? I guess she could do a head-to-head with Farage???

I expect that some debates will happen with a spread of candidates. TBH Swinson vs Farage would be good. We either do Brexit or we don't. What is the point in voting for sort-of Brexit offered by Johnson or Corbyn?

Swinson vs Farage sounds good, love to see it (I know who my money would be on) but it ain't gonna happen. She would never take on Farage nor would anyone.

Barnesian said:

camel said:

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

Other possibles, some of them very tight

Sheffield Hallam (not tight)
Thornbury
Torbay
Taunton Deane
Sutton and Cheam
North Devon
Eastleigh
Chippenham
Cheltenham
Cheadle

Some good ones there, however my model assumes a big swing from labour to libdem, and some of these have virtually no labour presence at all = thornbury produced just 6000 labour votes in 2017.

The hard one to fathom is Hallam - will the labour vote collapse in embarrassment after the fiasco that has been the (admittedly, clearly mentally ill) current incumbent, or will it be refreshed. I have happy memories of Hallam in 2017 - I cleaned up.

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432?s=20

camel said:

Barnesian said:

camel said:

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

Other possibles, some of them very tight

Sheffield Hallam (not tight)
Thornbury
Torbay
Taunton Deane
Sutton and Cheam
North Devon
Eastleigh
Chippenham
Cheltenham
Cheadle

Some good ones there, however my model assumes a big swing from labour to libdem, and some of these have virtually no labour presence at all = thornbury produced just 6000 labour votes in 2017.

The hard one to fathom is Hallam - will the labour vote collapse in embarrassment after the fiasco that has been the (admittedly, clearly mentally ill) current incumbent, or will it be refreshed. I have happy memories of Hallam in 2017 - I cleaned up.

There's a swing from Tory to LibDem as well.
I've got Thornbury as 41% Tory, 44% LibDem.
MRP has it as 38% Tory, 39% LibDem.
Tight.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432?s=20

I can't believe London and Scotland.

Barnesian said:

camel said:

Barnesian said:

camel said:

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

Other possibles, some of them very tight

Sheffield Hallam (not tight)
Thornbury
Torbay
Taunton Deane
Sutton and Cheam
North Devon
Eastleigh
Chippenham
Cheltenham
Cheadle

Some good ones there, however my model assumes a big swing from labour to libdem, and some of these have virtually no labour presence at all = thornbury produced just 6000 labour votes in 2017.

The hard one to fathom is Hallam - will the labour vote collapse in embarrassment after the fiasco that has been the (admittedly, clearly mentally ill) current incumbent, or will it be refreshed. I have happy memories of Hallam in 2017 - I cleaned up.

There's a swing from Tory to LibDem as well.
I've got Thornbury as 41% Tory, 44% LibDem.
MRP has it as 38% Tory, 39% LibDem.
Tight.

Indeed I have modelled for a a tory to libdem swing.

I have it 90% tory/libdem (48% tory 42% libdem) just 10% for others.

In 2017 it was 87% tory/libdem and 13% others,

You have 85% for libdem/con and 15% for others which looks very credible, better than my model given the likely BXP standing.

MRP has it 77% for libdem/con and 23% for other which looks much less credible.

What is MRP by the way?

camel said:

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

You have Brecon and Radnorshire in there three times...

No Sheffield Hallam?

I have a Four Part model: UNS, Remain/Leave, Local Strength and Labour vote to squeeze.

On that, LDs gain: Richmond Park, Ceridigion, St Ives, St Albans, Fife NE, Leeds NW, Sheffield Hallam, Hornsey & Wood Green, and South Cambridgeshire for a total of 21 seats.

There are about a dozen other seats that might be in reach on a good day, such as a few of the London ones. I'm not optimistic they'll do well in the South West. I think they'll do surprisingly well in studenty areas where "Bollox to Brexit" seems clever and sophisticated.

I do have Brecon and Radnorshire in there three times. It is a very large constituency, physically, but even so I've been ambitious there.

One of them should read Cheadle. Not sure about the other. I am concentrating on watching the cricket rather than concentrating on my cutting and pasting.

Yes, Sheffield Hallam ought to go yellow but I wonder if it might go blue for the first time in many years. I consider it too freaky a constituency to bet on.

You are predicting 10-20 gains with which I concur. Bet365's analysts are predicting 33. I've placed a bet.

Now to see if James Vince bats better than he fields.

RH1992 said:

camel said:

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

I cannot see Leeds NW going LD. The local MP is popular and the LDs used to have a stronghold in Headingley but it's solid Labour now. Otley and the parts outside the ring road are still LD but the lean over the past few years is in Labour's direction.

I've assumed a fair swing from labour to libdem in remainy areas (and not attempted to adjust for local factors) but you might be right about Leeds NW. Mulholland might have had the name recognition to regain, but I see the LibDems have appointed a new candidate. should be close.

PaulM said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Gabs2 said:

egg said:

Gabs2 said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.

I doubt they are moderate on taxing billionaires more. Even Republican voters seem to like that.

I’m still doubtful billionaires pay tax.

I feel more confident they would with Warren as President.

If Warren were President and Johnson PM then yes I'm very confident we'd get more billionaires paying tax in the UK - and Ireland would too.

The US tax code, unlike most others, taxes all citizens on global income, wherever they might live. So whereas a UK citizen seeking to avoid UK income tax could decamp to Monaco or the like, a US citizen can't avoid federal tax by permamently leaving the US. They would have to revoke their citizenship, which the IRS can challenge (and did in the case of some Heinz executives who renounced their US citizenship and moved to Ireland)

Tax authorities worldwide are a lot more savvy than they used to be.

RH1992 said:

camel said:

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

I cannot see Leeds NW going LD. The local MP is popular and the LDs used to have a stronghold in Headingley but it's solid Labour now. Otley and the parts outside the ring road are still LD but the lean over the past few years is in Labour's direction.

Bristol West could be a unexpected win if the remain/Green vote shifts....I sense there are a few seats where they may come from nowehere....

Barnesian said:

camel said:

LibDems 5/6 to get 44.5 seats or less.
Initially I felt that they might hoover up some female votes from the tories and remainer votes from labour, but can only model 12 gains and 6 possibles

I cannot see where they can rack up 33gains.

Which consituencies am I missing, or all in at 5/6?

Gains:

Richmond Park
Ceredigion
St Ives
Brecon and RadnorshireCheadle
Leeds North West
Lewes
St Albans
Southport
Wells
Hazel Grove
Cornwall North
Brecon and Radnorshire

Possibles:

Fife North East
Winchester
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Cambridge
Brecon and Radnorshire

Other possibles, some of them very tight

Sheffield Hallam (not tight)
Thornbury
Torbay
Taunton Deane
Sutton and Cheam
North Devon
Eastleigh
Chippenham
Cheltenham
Cheadle

Guildford is an example of a constituency where the swing to the LDs is projected to be higher than UNS.

Morning all. Great discussions on constituency seat market betting. PB at its best 👍

StuartDickson said:

viewcode said:

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

CON 42 (+2)
LAB 26 (+2)
LD 16 (+1)
BXP 9 (-1)

ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

CON 36 (+10)
LAB 28 (-1)
LD 14 (+6)
BXP 12 (-2)

Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

CON 40 (+3)
LAB 28 (+4)
LD 14 (-5)
BXP 11 (=)

I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.

Who knows.

In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...

The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.

A couple of days ago the Lib Dems were hyping a Gain in Ross, Skye and Lochaber. From 4th place and 12% of the vote. They are their own worst enemies.

If the Ross Sky Locharber is remotely true then it implies the massive Lib - >Con conversion that happened in 2017 is over.

edmundintokyo said:

RochdalePioneers said:

One example of game changing events. In a few weeks time ITV are putting Corbyn and Johnson head to head on live TV. It will be a very painful hour of TV, reinforcing to voters just why they hate the pair of them so much. My new lot have made the point that the choice of debatees of leave vs leave is absurd, but its in our interests not to be there. The more time Johnson and Corbyn have on screen smothering each other to death the better.

OK, but how does Swinson even get herself on the telly at all? If Corbyn and Johnson lock her out of the debates, which I guess they can, how does she get coverage? I guess she could do a head-to-head with Farage???

Before I read the final sentence that's exactly what I was going to suggest. They could frame it as the only people offering an honest choice on Europe - either fully out, or cancelling Brexit altogether.