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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negativ

SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negative response to her healthcare funding plan

There’ve been big movements in the betting in the fight for the Democratic nomination with one-time favourite, Beto O’Rourke, now pulling himself out of the race and the current favourite Elizabeth Warren seeing a dramatic slide in her betting position.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    First.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    First.

    You're a moderator. I cry foul.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Loving TSE's opium den smoking jacket on the previous thread.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Anyway, just collected my winnings on a December election from Betfair.

    Only partly lifts my dark mood as I sense a Johnson win ahead.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.

    This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.

    But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-49471321
    Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    MarqueeMark said:

    Loving TSE's opium den smoking jacket on the previous thread.....

    It has been christened my Hugh Hefner jacket.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.

    This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.

    But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-49471321
    Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?
    Have you headed up north recently ?
    People would sooner join the euro than have fracking anywhere near them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
    Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.

    This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.

    But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-49471321
    Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?
    Have you headed up north recently ?
    People would sooner join the euro than have fracking anywhere near them.
    They probably think it's similar to arklefting.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
    He was first recommended by James Naughtie on late night radio many months ago. He used to work in the US and he said he'd heard from friends that Buttigleg was the hot prospect.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    What is the unpopular part of Warren's plan?

    From what I heard second hand it would cost almost everyone, including employers, less than the status quo.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited November 2019
    FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,721
    Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

    The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.

    Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?

  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    For the record, I am sceptical of the economics of fracking in the UK. But that is not a matter for central government regulation. Wealthy ecologists in North London shouldn't be deciding whether fracking is right for Blackpool - that should be a matter for the locals.

    This is yet another area where, Brexit aside, I'm finding myself with very little reason to vote Conservative.

    But it is nothing to do with "wealthy ecologists in North London" deciding it. It is because each time the Govt. has allowed fracking to start up again, the eathquakes have resumed. There seems to be an undeniable causal link.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-49471321
    Of course there's a causal link. But shouldn't the people of Blackpool get to decide how serious a really, really small earthquake is?
    Fracking was rejected by Labour-led Lancashire county council. Javid overruled that.

    Cuadrilla has been told to pack up by Tory-led Fylde borough council. The local Tory MP for the Fylde has asked for it to be stopped. The Labour MP for Blackpool likewise.

    National opinion polls are negative on fracking. I imagine a poll of Fylde residents would be very negative. People getting woken up by the house shaking kind of turns you off the industry.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Gallowgate said:

    FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.

    And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.
  • PagetVCPagetVC Posts: 13
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1190728473981149186?s=21
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    edited November 2019
    PagetVC said:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1190728473981149186?s=21

    Not sure that table is going to cover all Labour's losses.....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    https://twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/1190417989272686592
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,597
    Foxy said:

    Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

    The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.

    Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?

    Well into the Presidency, if the current incumbent is anything to go by?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/1190417989272686592

    That's a good ad.

    Shame the crisps are crap.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
    Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1
    My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late March
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    MikeSmithson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
    Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1
    My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late March
    His odds went out recently during the Warren surge. I topped up then
  • RWPRWP Posts: 9
    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/1190417989272686592

    That's a good ad.

    Shame the crisps are crap.
    So I'm not alone in thinking their crisps are massively over-rated! Bland, bland, bland.

    Meanwhile, all Arlene Foster wants for Christmas is unionist unity.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    RWP said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/1190417989272686592

    That's a good ad.

    Shame the crisps are crap.
    So I'm not alone in thinking their crisps are massively over-rated! Bland, bland, bland.

    Meanwhile, all Arlene Foster wants for Christmas is unionist unity.
    Bland boring crap - and unless they've changed it with everyone going on about packaging waste, a bag of air most of the time.

    McCoys, Doritos and Pringles are all far better of the big brands.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    SandyRentool said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.

    And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.
    Train from Gainsborough Central to Barnetby black-biro'ed today, despite the shit weather and various engineering diversions. Also did the Sleaford avoider, and rode my first LNER Class 800 Azuma back to London!
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Sorry have I missed the poll talk. Opinonion has boris cruising up yet more towards the mid forties and orb has Tory’s up ten points.

    Labour ought to just pack bags and fly out to med for a holiday. Nothing for them here for at least 2 or 3 years even if they get leadership right next time
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    edited November 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
    Yes, he did. And I got on him at about 50-1 from memory.

    My first political bet - and if he gets the nomination, either as candidate for President or V-P, a very profitable one.

    :)

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,130
    When was the last poll with Labour in front?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    Delta : Con 40 Lab 28 LD 14 BXP 11
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    egg said:

    Sorry have I missed the poll talk. Opinonion has boris cruising up yet more towards the mid forties and orb has Tory’s up ten points.

    Labour ought to just pack bags and fly out to med for a holiday. Nothing for them here for at least 2 or 3 years even if they get leadership right next time

    The higher Tory vote recorded by ORB is compared with last April!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    viewcode said:

    When was the last poll with Labour in front?

    End of July, with ComRes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    Gallowgate said:

    FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.

    4 years ago and approx £600 feed it tariff plus reduction in energy used of approx £200.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    felix said:

    Delta : Con 40 Lab 28 LD 14 BXP 11

    Yet another outlier :lol:
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,570
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.

    And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.
    Train from Gainsborough Central to Barnetby black-biro'ed today, despite the shit weather and various engineering diversions. Also did the Sleaford avoider, and rode my first LNER Class 800 Azuma back to London!
    Did you come through Ancaster on the Sleaford train? If so you went within about half a mile of me.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Fourth pollster to put Tories on 40%+
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    Delta : Con 40 Lab 28 LD 14 BXP 11

    That is Con +3 Lab +4 LD -5 BXP No Change.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    viewcode said:

    When was the last poll with Labour in front?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432

    SNP just ahead in Scotland?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Artist said:

    Fourth pollster to put Tories on 40%+

    Ah, complacency feels good. :D:p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
    By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)
  • PagetVCPagetVC Posts: 13
    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
    And BXP..
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Suspect there will be a You [What] Gov as well? :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Gallowgate said:

    FPT @Big_G_NorthWales I can only assume you got your PV installed quite a few years ago when the rates were high. There’s no way a 4kW domestic array will yield £800 a year now.

    And still an 8 year simple payback at that revenue level.
    Train from Gainsborough Central to Barnetby black-biro'ed today, despite the shit weather and various engineering diversions. Also did the Sleaford avoider, and rode my first LNER Class 800 Azuma back to London!
    Did you come through Ancaster on the Sleaford train? If so you went within about half a mile of me.
    A bit complicated really. Went from Kings Cross to Newark where we were de-trained due to a faulty windscreen wiper of all things! Determined to get to Retford in time for the Gainsborough/Brigg/Barnetby train, I felt I had no choice but to get a cab! Then went from Retford via the Saturday-only train through Brigg. Took that all the way to Cleethorpes. By that time, the main line through Retford and Newark was closed for scheduled engineering, so decided to go to Doncaster, where I picked up the Azuma train which, due to its "bi-mode" diesel engines, was able to head back to London via Lincoln, avoiding Sleaford, rejoining the main line at Peterborough.

    I have been through Ancaster, back in 2016, when I did Nottingham to Skegness.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    I suspect the "Get Brexit Done" message is working for Boris. People want it to be over and a Conservative majority government is the quickest way to do it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    ORB a bit lazy aren't they? Last poll in April? :lol:
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    Deltapoll

    Net approval

    Boris +-2
    Corbyn -43

    Best for NHS

    Boris 40%
    Corbyn 34%

    Best for Brexit

    Boris 51%
    Corbyn 26%

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Bah, all outliers, every single one of them!

    :lol:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    nunu2 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432

    SNP just ahead in Scotland?

    Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.

    SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21

    Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.

    I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    The LibDems are duds at expectations management.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 40% (+3)
    LAB: 28% (+4)
    LDEM: 14% (-5)
    BREX: 11% (-)

    via
    @DeltapollUK
    , 31 Oct - 02 Nov

    LDs on zero at this rate of decline.

    Tory Swinson really is useless
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Suspect there will be a You [What] Gov as well? :D
    Hmm the big unknown seems to be the tory share.

    36 or 42, that's a big range.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    RobD said:

    Artist said:

    Fourth pollster to put Tories on 40%+

    Ah, complacency feels good. :D:p
    Theresa May 2017 complacency? :lol:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    It would if Labour weren't led by antisemites.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Look, until YouGov publish their MRP everything is just bollox random number generators.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2019
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    RobD said:

    Artist said:

    Fourth pollster to put Tories on 40%+

    Ah, complacency feels good. :D:p
    Theresa May 2017 complacency? :lol:
    A vintage year. I’ve been having nightmares about those bongs.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    BXP seem to be taking 2017 Labour voters more than Tory ones, of course efficiency of voter distribution will be key.

    In the past the Labour vote was very efficient, I suspect that this isn't as true as before, it's looking like they could rack up 700,000 votes in Scotland for almost no return. This will be a major drag on their UK wide numbers.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    edited November 2019
    From twitter

    Tories: Deliver Brexit. Move on as a country.

    Lib Dems: Cancel Brexit. Try to move on as a country.

    Labour: Two more referendums and another renegotiation for the lolz.

    Brexit Party: Renegotiate all over again to get the deal that Boris’ deal actually leads to anyway.



    Pretty much where we are
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    nunu2 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432

    SNP just ahead in Scotland?

    Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.

    SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21

    Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.

    I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
    On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!
    Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
    By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.
    Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    Me? :smiley:
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Tories: Deliver Brexit. Move on as a country.

    Lib Dems: Cancel Brexit. Try to move on as a country.

    Labour: Two more referendums and another renegotiation for the lolz.

    Brexit Party: Renegotiate all over again to get the deal that Boris’ deal actually leads to anyway.

    Labour: What's Brexit? For the many not the Jew.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Shadsy’s Vote Share Match Bet looks like a dead cert 25% return in just 5 weeks:

    Lab 1/4
    LD 11/4
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Bah, all outliers, every single one of them!

    :lol:
    All to be taken with a bucket of salt at this stage of a v volatile election.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
    By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.
    Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.
    Indeed so - there is no sign at all of momentum.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    MikeSmithson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
    Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1
    My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late March
    I'm on at 110.

    Big surprise could be coming in Iowa.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,291
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Deltapoll

    Net approval

    Boris +-2
    Corbyn -43

    Best for NHS

    Boris 40%
    Corbyn 34%

    Best for Brexit

    Boris 51%
    Corbyn 26%

    Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PB poster was pushing Buttigieg when he was available at more than 20-1?

    As the odds weren't 50/1, presumably not your dad?

    Didn't Cyclefree's son big him up very early on?
    Yep. She mentioned him when he was more than 100-1
    My best Buttigieg bet was at 40/1 in late March
    His odds went out recently during the Warren surge. I topped up then
    Good decision.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Buttigieg as POTUS would be my biggest ever payout by a long chalk.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    dodrade said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    I suspect the "Get Brexit Done" message is working for Boris. People want it to be over and a Conservative majority government is the quickest way to do it.
    It will certainly not be over when the Deal is passed. The serious negotiations will be about to begin.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Deltapoll

    Net approval

    Boris +-2
    Corbyn -43

    Best for NHS

    Boris 40%
    Corbyn 34%

    Best for Brexit

    Boris 51%
    Corbyn 26%

    Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!
    Whose the 26% who think he’s best for brexit?

    Actually, what does that even mean, best for brexit?
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
    By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.
    Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.
    Indeed so - there is no sign at all of momentum.
    I’m sure they are working away in the background...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Deltapoll

    Net approval

    Boris +-2
    Corbyn -43

    Best for NHS

    Boris 40%
    Corbyn 34%

    Best for Brexit

    Boris 51%
    Corbyn 26%

    Terrible numbers for Jezza. Really dreadful!
    Naught but Tory propaganda!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    edited November 2019
    "Beyond the words, though, the speech notably highlighted the newfound power for Buttigieg's growing organization in Iowa. As the South Bend, Indiana, mayor spoke on Friday night, hundreds of Buttigieg's supporters sporting yellow shirts emblazoned with "PETE" roared during lulls in the speech. Some had block lettering that read "Boot Edge Edge."

    Here in Iowa, Buttigieg's campaign is ascendant..."

    https://www.abc57.com/news/pete-buttigieg-touts-rising-organizing-power-in-optimistic-iowa-speech
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/1190417989272686592

    That's a good ad.

    Shame the crisps are crap.
    Pity they missed the obvious pun... "All I want for Crispmas....."

    I will not bother taking off my hat or coat.... :D:D
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    justin124 said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu2 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432

    SNP just ahead in Scotland?

    Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.

    SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21

    Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.

    I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
    On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!
    Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.
    Labour was actually on 22 in the subsample.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    justin124 said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    felix said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
    By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.
    Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.
    Indeed so - there is no sign at all of momentum.
    I’m sure they are working away in the background...
    Doubtless that is so - but it makes the repeated claims of big gains in London appear pretty fanciful!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,285
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Deltapoll

    Net approval

    Boris +-2
    Corbyn -43

    Best for NHS

    Boris 40%
    Corbyn 34%

    Best for Brexit

    Boris 51%
    Corbyn 26%

    So is that up on the -60 he had earlier, or is it a different company?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Warren and Buttigieg Gain Momentum in Iowa Democratic Race

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/02/us/politics/Iowa-buttigieg-warren.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ORB a bit lazy aren't they? Last poll in April? :lol:

    Their one pollster finding ten representative people to interview each weekday, spread around the country, is actually working flat out.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,130
    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Deltapoll

    Net approval

    Boris +-2
    Corbyn -43

    Best for NHS

    Boris 40%
    Corbyn 34%

    Best for Brexit

    Boris 51%
    Corbyn 26%

    So is that up on the -60 he had earlier, or is it a different company?
    I really do not know to be honest

    Comparing polls since the election to those before the lib dems are the losers so far
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Alistair said:

    justin124 said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu2 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/MoS_Politics/status/1190734821842194432

    SNP just ahead in Scotland?

    Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.

    SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21

    Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.

    I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
    On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!
    Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.
    Labour was actually on 22 in the subsample.
    Ok - if the figures were SNP 27 Con 24 Lab 22 , it implies a 2.5% swing from SNP to Labour compared with 2017. Labour would gain 9 seats there on that basis.
    However, I remain very wary of subsamples - good or bad!
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    rottenborough said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Bah, all outliers, every single one of them!

    :lol:
    All to be taken with a bucket of salt at this stage of a v volatile election.
    But is it volatile. Poll after poll show 40% want brexit wrangling out their lives with a Boris win. Why shouldn’t this be it, all up to the glorious 12th?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    nunu2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Suspect there will be a You [What] Gov as well? :D
    Hmm the big unknown seems to be the tory share.

    36 or 42, that's a big range.
    Depends on labour's range as well
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited November 2019
    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
    Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.
    At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
    For different reasons. I suspect that both the Tory and Labour camps will be quite satisfied tonight . The LDs will have taken a knock.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
    Let’s not demoralise Justin before the end of the first week. Where’s the sport in that.

    Keep telling yourself Justin, All oppositions recover from bad polls, it’s always governments who die in the end.

    Hang in till at least last weekend before polling hoping something miraculous will turn up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Lib Dems in all these CON LAB marginals looking a bit like May in Leeds East 2017 to me.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Those attempts to downplay the anti semitism problem have got off to a bad start

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/labour-suspends-art-critic-standing-parliamentary-candidate/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Foxy said:

    Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

    The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.

    Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?

    The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.

    Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
    Similarly - if you want to avoid a marxist government tolerant of anti semites vote blue to stop very, very red.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    https://twitter.com/walkers_crisps/status/1190417989272686592

    That's a good ad.

    Shame the crisps are crap.
    Pity they missed the obvious pun... "All I want for Crispmas....."

    I will not bother taking off my hat or coat.... :D:D
    All I want for crispmas is you.

    How are you, warm in that coat?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    justin124 said:

    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
    Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.
    At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
    Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6

    And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit

    In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Deltapoll

    Net approval

    Boris +-2
    Corbyn -43

    Best for NHS

    Boris 40%
    Corbyn 34%

    Best for Brexit

    Boris 51%
    Corbyn 26%

    So is that up on the -60 he had earlier, or is it a different company?
    I think that number is from the latest Ipsos Mori poll, so probably not best to compare it directly to the the number from the Delta poll.
This discussion has been closed.