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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negativ

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  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:

    - Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good).
    - Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).

    So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.

    All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Swinson in the debates
  • My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP

    Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.

    However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament

    And that is my honest non biased opinion
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Banterman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fits the vote for anyone other than Boris, get the communist Corbyn narrative that Boris wants.
    Lol if the Times is right that the Tories plan to attack Labour for reckless spending...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    "*Waah* It's not fair, we have a few MPs why aren't we included in the debates?" 😭
  • I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%

    He knows his voter base
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    edited November 2019
    Received our first Labour election literature today in Newcastle. Zero mention of Corbyn.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%

    He knows his voter base

    God that’s cynical as anything.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.
  • kle4 said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Just one poll, etc, but that's a mighty big LD drop. Still a big improvement on last time, but those fickle voters might just not deliver for them once again.
    What was the 53 that their guy was touting as the most interesting number from the poll? Apart from LAB+LD+BXP I can't find any 53s.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
    Who knows.

    In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
    The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2019
    moonshine said:

    I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:

    - Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good).
    - Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).

    So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.

    All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful. </p>

    Why would Corbyn get as much as Brown? He certainly won't do as well as Brown in Scotland, that's a couple of percentage points right there. He's not going to do as well as Brown in Wales either, that's maybe 1% more?

    That's before considering how many voters in England don't want to vote for an antisemite but were happy to vote for Brown.

    EDIT: PS even if Tories did no better than 2017 that's >40% possible.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:
    To be honest with you HY, the poll numbers seem very credible for where we are right now, but at first glance the seat numbers feel so big a Tory victory. But at second glance that isn’t that great a lab to Tory seat pick up to create that 70 near landslide majority.

    But that is if you think of the figures at end of parliament, not the moment we finished the election last time. Those figures changed dramatically during the short parliament. One thing Curtice put his head up and said the moment the election called, we could see a lot more non Tory and Labour MPs returned than historically. Does that seat calculator say Tory win every single seat from defector and whipless wonder?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing

    JICIPM

    CON 375
    LAB 204
    LD 11
    SNP 37
    PC 4
    NI 18
    GRN 1

    SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
    Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
    LD Gain Richmond
  • I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%

    He knows his voter base

    God that’s cynical as anything.
    I think it is based on average pay rises in October figures which was 3.9%

    Ironic TM was going to abolish the triple lock before Corbyn vetoed it
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    For Democratic primary voters whose priority is beating Trump, then having something like that "may hit her with general election voters" is a problem.

    In addition, advocating a policy that forces Union members to give up their current hard earned and often generous private health benefits in exchange for Medicare is problematic with Union member Democrats and their families. The UAW just had a huge strike at GM and the one thing they refused to give an inch on was health benefits - they currently have a health plan where they pay 3% of the cost, as opposed to an average employee contribution of 25%+. Biden and Buttegieg will hammer her on that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    justin124 said:

    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
    Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.
    At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
    Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6

    And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit

    In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
    G, I do believe you are completely wrong. We will see 13th December.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    alex. said:

    This is going to get very boring if we have another election campaign where the media spend all the time constantly talking about opinion polls. It’s almost as if the worse the pollsters perform election after election, the more the press treat them as definitive guides to public opinion. Madness!

    Surely, once all the candidates are announced, the media will switch attention to their social media profile, Facebook and twitter feeds.

    If we are going to have 650 TBP candidates, as well as hurried selections by the other parties, there are going to be plenty of nutters who will slip through.

    TBP candidate who believed she was an extraterrestrial from Sirius was a very promising start, but there is more fun & games for the media to come.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    malcolmg said:
    I know elves had big ears. Because they sent Noddy a ransom note.
  • HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Swinson in the debates
    They can’t invite the Lib Dems without inviting the SNP, which the BBC are desperate to avoid.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    justin124 said:

    Alistair said:

    nunu2 said:
    Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.

    SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21

    Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.

    I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
    On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP!
    Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.
    LOL. some desperate people on here.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing

    JICIPM

    CON 375
    LAB 204
    LD 11
    SNP 37
    PC 4
    NI 18
    GRN 1

    SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
    Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
    LD Gain Richmond

    penistown?

    Your not bigging that one up?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%

    He knows his voter base

    God that’s cynical as anything.
    Well yeah. We're going to see even more desperate and cynical moves than usual as even more rides on this GE than most, given Brexit.
    viewcode said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
    Who knows.

    In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
    The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.
    Every time? You'd think we'd learn.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%

    He knows his voter base

    God that’s cynical as anything.
    Its politics.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Received our first Labour election literature today in Newcastle. Zero mention of Corbyn.

    God that’s cynical as anything.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Tweaked my model some, and it's saying SNP majority in the HoC. Think I might have broken something .....
  • viewcode said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Three VI polls in the Sunday papers

    Opinium/Observer (31st-1st):

    CON 42 (+2)
    LAB 26 (+2)
    LD 16 (+1)
    BXP 9 (-1)

    ORB/Sunday Telegraph (31st-1st):

    CON 36 (+10)
    LAB 28 (-1)
    LD 14 (+6)
    BXP 12 (-2)

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
    Who knows.

    In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
    The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.
    A couple of days ago the Lib Dems were hyping a Gain in Ross, Skye and Lochaber. From 4th place and 12% of the vote. They are their own worst enemies.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,130
    edited November 2019
    malcolmg said:

    justin124 said:

    viewcode said:

    justin124 said:

    There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.

    Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
    Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%.
    At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
    Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6

    And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit

    In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
    G, I do believe you are completely wrong. We will see 13th December.
    I think we may both be satisfied. Some SNP gains but some Scons holds because of the union vote

    But of course we will see in December and whatever the result I still have the Scots at the centre of my affections and I will accept it without question.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    egg said:

    BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing

    JICIPM

    CON 375
    LAB 204
    LD 11
    SNP 37
    PC 4
    NI 18
    GRN 1

    SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
    Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
    LD Gain Richmond

    penistown?

    Your not bigging that one up?
    After all it is a General Erection.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Delta poll

    Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday (31st-2nd):

    CON 40 (+3)
    LAB 28 (+4)
    LD 14 (-5)
    BXP 11 (=)

    Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
    By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.
    Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.
    The LDs have dropped 4-5 points in the last month.

    It is worth, however, noting that (outside of party primaries) there's no such thing as momentum. Indeed, the evidence is that a move one month has no impact on the likelihood of seeing another move the next.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    IanB2 said:

    Banterman said:

    Scott_P said:
    Fits the vote for anyone other than Boris, get the communist Corbyn narrative that Boris wants.
    Lol if the Times is right that the Tories plan to attack Labour for reckless spending...
    Labour does have reckless spending plans. They need to explain how they are going to pay for it all without the same promised tax cuts the Tories are offering.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)

    SNP 46%
    CON 16%
    LAB 19%
    LD 9%

    Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it

    SNP still polling below 2015 levels even then
    almost impossible to poll above 2015 levels, it seems to be your solace every time
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%

    He knows his voter base

    Whats the triple lock say Sept wage growth.

    Oh its 3.9%

    HE HAS NO CHOICE its the law BigG
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP

    Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.

    However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament

    And that is my honest non biased opinion

    And it’s spot on.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.
    I doubt they are moderate on taxing billionaires more. Even Republican voters seem to like that.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    egg said:

    BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing

    JICIPM

    CON 375
    LAB 204
    LD 11
    SNP 37
    PC 4
    NI 18
    GRN 1

    SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
    Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
    LD Gain Richmond

    penistown?

    Your not bigging that one up?
    Penis Town is funny Tinge land FACT
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    I understand Boris is to offer an inflation busting pay rise to all pensioners of 3.9%

    He knows his voter base

    Whats the triple lock say Sept wage growth.

    Oh its 3.9%

    HE HAS NO CHOICE its the law BigG
    Excellent , I will get it in 2021, be good pocket money.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)

    SNP 46%
    CON 16%
    LAB 19%
    LD 9%

    Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it

    SNP still polling below 2015 levels even then
    almost impossible to poll above 2015 levels, it seems to be your solace every time
    Looking good for LD CON and LAB gains from SNP😊
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    The problem with the glossy Jo Swinson booklet was that the content was really poor. Lots of vague vacuous statements, not grounded in lived experience, or stories that people could relate to. The response to a question about why she was involved in politics mentioned student campaigning she did at university, but the most specific thing referred to is "Body Shop petitions" whatever that means.

    I remember the stuff that the Tories sent out in 2010, and it was so much better (even though I strongly disagreed with the politics). So far, and it's *very* early, they look to be missing out on a big opportunity.

    The Body Shop organises petitions among its customers - I was responsible for arranging one a few years ago on ending animal testing for cosmetics (which they've now repeated globally and got a million signatures). But while she might have got some reader interest if she'd said what the petitions were about, just mentioning signing namless petitions sounds vacuous.
  • #GE2019 Polling Update (2nd Nov):

    CON: 38.0% (+1.4)
    LAB: 26.0% (+1.5)
    LDM: 16.7% (-1.2)
    BXP: 10.2% (-0.9)
    GRN: 3.4% (-0.6)

    Changes w/ 29th Oct. https://t.co/WL4LvRteRR
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    The Comres Scottish subsample is (because that is apparently a thing serious newspapers now report on)

    SNP 46%
    CON 16%
    LAB 19%
    LD 9%

    Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it

    SNP still polling below 2015 levels even then
    almost impossible to poll above 2015 levels, it seems to be your solace every time
    2015 was pre the Brexit vote, if the SNP cannot even get over 50% after the Brexit vote and Yes got 45% in 2014 they are still going nowhere.

    Though of course a Tory majority Government will block indyref2 until at least the next Holyrood elections anyway
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing

    JICIPM

    CON 375
    LAB 204
    LD 11
    SNP 37
    PC 4
    NI 18
    GRN 1

    SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
    Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
    LD Gain Richmond

    It's about right. SuperJo is up the road
  • egg said:

    My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP

    Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.

    However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament

    And that is my honest non biased opinion

    And it’s spot on.
    It is always good to agree
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Received our first Labour election literature today in Newcastle. Zero mention of Corbyn.

    I got them to personalise just for you.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.
    I doubt they are moderate on taxing billionaires more. Even Republican voters seem to like that.
    I’m still doubtful billionaires pay tax.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    moonshine said:

    I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:

    - Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good).
    - Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).

    So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.

    All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful. </p>

    Why would Corbyn get as much as Brown? He certainly won't do as well as Brown in Scotland, that's a couple of percentage points right there. He's not going to do as well as Brown in Wales either, that's maybe 1% more?

    That's before considering how many voters in England don't want to vote for an antisemite but were happy to vote for Brown.

    EDIT: PS even if Tories did no better than 2017 that's >40% possible.
    I suppose I’m saying that Corbyn will outperform Brown in England because Swinson will underperform Clegg. And I think Corbyn’s appeal remains better than assumed/polled.

    If Boris gets 40% then biscuits and gravy. But I’d have thought he’s being nowhere near as complacent to assume he’s on course for this.

    What’s the view on turnout? Worse than 2017? The best money Cummings could spend this campaign sounds like to pay a few people with video cameras to very visibly stand outside the polling booths in places like Canterbury.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.
    With Sanders and Warren leading New Hampshire and Iowa in most polls now not at the moment
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    My take is the polls show a majority for Boris, labour have improved from a low base, the lib dems seem to be falling as well as TBP

    Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.

    However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament

    And that is my honest non biased opinion

    And it’s spot on.
    It is always good to agree
    And like you, and many of the political commentators, I can’t see much that can really the maths.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Swinson in the debates
    They can’t invite the Lib Dems without inviting the SNP, which the BBC are desperate to avoid.
    There will be at least 1 multiparty leader debate like 2015
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    egg said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.
    I doubt they are moderate on taxing billionaires more. Even Republican voters seem to like that.
    I’m still doubtful billionaires pay tax.
    I feel more confident they would with Warren as President.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    PaulM said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    For Democratic primary voters whose priority is beating Trump, then having something like that "may hit her with general election voters" is a problem.

    In addition, advocating a policy that forces Union members to give up their current hard earned and often generous private health benefits in exchange for Medicare is problematic with Union member Democrats and their families. The UAW just had a huge strike at GM and the one thing they refused to give an inch on was health benefits - they currently have a health plan where they pay 3% of the cost, as opposed to an average employee contribution of 25%+. Biden and Buttegieg will hammer her on that.
    Yes, Trump is still hoping to face Warren
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:
    To be honest with you HY, the poll numbers seem very credible for where we are right now, but at first glance the seat numbers feel so big a Tory victory. But at second glance that isn’t that great a lab to Tory seat pick up to create that 70 near landslide majority.

    But that is if you think of the figures at end of parliament, not the moment we finished the election last time. Those figures changed dramatically during the short parliament. One thing Curtice put his head up and said the moment the election called, we could see a lot more non Tory and Labour MPs returned than historically. Does that seat calculator say Tory win every single seat from defector and whipless wonder?
    As most of them are in safe seats they should do
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    #GE2019 Polling Update (2nd Nov):

    CON: 38.0% (+1.4)
    LAB: 26.0% (+1.5)
    LDM: 16.7% (-1.2)
    BXP: 10.2% (-0.9)
    GRN: 3.4% (-0.6)

    Changes w/ 29th Oct. https://t.co/WL4LvRteRR

    0.05% swing to Lab!!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    The LibDems need a slap across the face to wake them up.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Floater said:

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
    Straight answer - Starmer.

    Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Labour need to be under 200 seats. They need a serious smashing to get rid of Corbyn and those who think like him ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    There will be no dementia tax gaffes like last time and a more populist campaign from Boris than May and Boris will do the debates too unlike May.

    Plus the Brexit Party will take Labour working class votes in the North, Wales and Midlands and the LDs are doing better in Labour Remain seats
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    There will be no dementia tax gaffes like last time and a more populist campaign from Boris than May and Boris will do the debates too unlike May.

    Plus the Brexit Party will take Labour working class votes in the North, Wales and Midlands and the LDs are doing better in Labour Remain seats
    Oh look its this reply again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    Floater said:

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
    Straight answer - Starmer.

    Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
    Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainly
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    We know the model then was broken. What happened then and what is being polled are not the same. They have all tweaked their models to some extent.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    egg said:

    BJESUS based on tonights polls (Big John Electoral Services Uniform Swing

    JICIPM

    CON 375
    LAB 204
    LD 11
    SNP 37
    PC 4
    NI 18
    GRN 1

    SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
    Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
    LD Gain Richmond

    penistown?

    Your not bigging that one up?
    Penis Town is funny Tinge land FACT
    I think we should get it checked out. It sounds just wrong.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    #SuperLayla
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Leia beat him to it, saying "It's a Trap!" twice to Luke after his arrival in Cloud City!
    I know it's a stretch, but I'm fairly sure Farage does not look like Carrie Fisher... :)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
    Straight answer - Starmer.

    Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
    Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainly
    Remember that the MPs decide who gets on the ballot.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    The LibDems need a slap across the face to wake them up.
    The voters are about to supply that slap. Swinson was a dreadful unforced error.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    We know the model then was broken. What happened then and what is being polled are not the same. They have all tweaked their models to some extent.
    That, and opinion actually changed during the campaign.
  • Gabs2 said:

    egg said:

    Gabs2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe

    Democratic primary voters are more moderate than you think.
    I doubt they are moderate on taxing billionaires more. Even Republican voters seem to like that.
    I’m still doubtful billionaires pay tax.
    I feel more confident they would with Warren as President.
    If Warren were President and Johnson PM then yes I'm very confident we'd get more billionaires paying tax in the UK - and Ireland would too.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Latest poll says CON gain Durham NW. Cheerio Pidcock!
  • HYUFD said:

    There will be no dementia tax gaffes like last time and a more populist campaign from Boris than May and Boris will do the debates too unlike May.

    Plus the Brexit Party will take Labour working class votes in the North, Wales and Midlands and the LDs are doing better in Labour Remain seats
    Copy and paste king. Solid for the next 5 weeks.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader
    If Layla was leader now I dont think they would have knee jerked Revoke and could see them taking many LAB and CON seats.

    Its wipeout under Tory Swinson
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    Ave_it said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    #SuperLayla
    A laylapede? Morangasm?

    I can’t keep up. It all too volatile. Jo started the evening storming it.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    We know the model then was broken. What happened then and what is being polled are not the same. They have all tweaked their models to some extent.
    That, and opinion actually changed during the campaign.
    Yes and there won't be unforced errors like removing winter fuel allowance etc etc etc. May's 2017 campaign was the worst ever by a Tory leader.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Ave_it said:

    Latest poll says CON gain Durham NW. Cheerio Pidcock!

    You are getting me all excited, Ave_it. :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader
    He won't.

    Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    egg said:

    Ave_it said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    #SuperLayla
    A laylapede? Morangasm?

    I can’t keep up. It all too volatile. Jo started the evening storming it.
    Unbelievable. Looks like SNP might gain seats now. Earlier today I told malcolmg that LD would cream SNP!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,236

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

    The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.

    Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?

    The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.
    S Carolina is his problem. But it will be a nice problem to have if he wins in Iowa.
    Indeed.

    I see Buttigieg and Warren as being roughly 45% shots apiece for Iowa. Buttigieg absolutely has to win it. Warren, so long as she's a good second, can afford to lose.

    The really interesting question is what happens if Biden places third or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His selling point is that he's a winner. And I think if you take that away, there's not much there.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
    Straight answer - Starmer.

    Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
    Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainly
    It will be Long Bailey. Pidcock interests me, there’s something there.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader
    If Layla was leader now I dont think they would have knee jerked Revoke and could see them taking many LAB and CON seats.

    Its wipeout under Tory Swinson
    Looks like it's LAB hold Sheffield Hallam!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Anyway I've stuck £200 on Labour this evening. £50 on Miliband 1-2 to hold £50 Barnsley Central 2-7 and £100 vote share match bet Vs Lib Dems 1-4
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited November 2019
    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
    Straight answer - Starmer.

    Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
    Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainly
    It will be Long Bailey. Pidcock interests me, there’s something there.
    And, not to LD benefit if Tory support crashes and burns before 2025 election. Which can’t be ruled out.

    Incidentally, with a Dec 12 election, what’s the latest it can be held, five years on top is right on Christmas again 🥳.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Ave_it said:

    Latest poll says CON gain Durham NW. Cheerio Pidcock!

    It's going to be very close there IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited November 2019
    #notgoingtobethesamethistime etc etc

    But its still incredible that some are writing Labour off as though such a recovery is definitely impossible. It doesn't even need to be the same level of recovery as last time. The debate might even be a critical moment, if up to then not much Labour cutting the gap, or the reverse, to see if BoJo and JerCo can step up.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    No i have that as a LD Gain TBF

    Lose Norfolk North and Eastbourne in a terrible night for Tory Swinson
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    RobD said:

    Ave_it said:

    Latest poll says CON gain Durham NW. Cheerio Pidcock!

    You are getting me all excited, Ave_it. :)
    That’s Ave it for you. Doing his thing. 😜
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader
    He won't.

    Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter
    Chuka seems a nice lad. He doesn’t strike me as a leader. Depends if the Lib Dem’s are happy to sit around talking to themselves in a nice and pleasant way, or want to become the second party post Corbyn. Equally I am mystified why anyone thinks the quite peculiar seeming Layla Moran would be fairing better than Swinson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    PagetVC said:
    Good grief, what an awesomely unflattering picture that is, it’s worse than the infamous bacon sarnie they slapped Miliband with.

    BTW, I am disappointed that nobody has attempted to sound the Scottish Labour surge KLAXON!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
    Straight answer - Starmer.

    Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
    Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainly
    Remember that the MPs decide who gets on the ballot.
    And it has to be a choice of two ie a moderate and a Corbynista, plus thanks to Momentum selections Labour MPs 0are more Corbynista than 2015 too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    edited November 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.

    Get Layla in for Swinson quick
    Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
    If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader
    He won't.

    Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter
    They do like a winner and if he gains a seat on a huge swing he will be that
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    So tonights polls have leads of 8,8,12,12,16 average lead 11.2%

    Or 10% if you ignore the outlier...

    Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
    Which of the lunatics do you want running the asylum?

    Because it wont be a moderate
    Straight answer - Starmer.

    Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
    Will be, Long-Bailey or Pidcock, to the LDs benefit mainly
    Remember that the MPs decide who gets on the ballot.
    There will still be Labour MPs after this?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The squeeze of the Lib Dem vote has already started . They’ll be doing well to get 10% to 12% of the vote in the GE.

  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Mayor Pete polling in the last 3 national polls at 2%, 4% and 8%, with Warren at 3 times that score:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

    The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.

    Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?

    The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.
    S Carolina is his problem. But it will be a nice problem to have if he wins in Iowa.
    Indeed.

    I see Buttigieg and Warren as being roughly 45% shots apiece for Iowa. Buttigieg absolutely has to win it. Warren, so long as she's a good second, can afford to lose.

    The really interesting question is what happens if Biden places third or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His selling point is that he's a winner. And I think if you take that away, there's not much there.
    Especially if Booker and Harris had already run out of funds and pulled out.
This discussion has been closed.