I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:
- Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good). - Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).
So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.
Just one poll, etc, but that's a mighty big LD drop. Still a big improvement on last time, but those fickle voters might just not deliver for them once again.
What was the 53 that their guy was touting as the most interesting number from the poll? Apart from LAB+LD+BXP I can't find any 53s.
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
Who knows.
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.
I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:
- Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good). - Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).
So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.
All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful. </p>
Why would Corbyn get as much as Brown? He certainly won't do as well as Brown in Scotland, that's a couple of percentage points right there. He's not going to do as well as Brown in Wales either, that's maybe 1% more?
That's before considering how many voters in England don't want to vote for an antisemite but were happy to vote for Brown.
EDIT: PS even if Tories did no better than 2017 that's >40% possible.
To be honest with you HY, the poll numbers seem very credible for where we are right now, but at first glance the seat numbers feel so big a Tory victory. But at second glance that isn’t that great a lab to Tory seat pick up to create that 70 near landslide majority.
But that is if you think of the figures at end of parliament, not the moment we finished the election last time. Those figures changed dramatically during the short parliament. One thing Curtice put his head up and said the moment the election called, we could see a lot more non Tory and Labour MPs returned than historically. Does that seat calculator say Tory win every single seat from defector and whipless wonder?
I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe
For Democratic primary voters whose priority is beating Trump, then having something like that "may hit her with general election voters" is a problem.
In addition, advocating a policy that forces Union members to give up their current hard earned and often generous private health benefits in exchange for Medicare is problematic with Union member Democrats and their families. The UAW just had a huge strike at GM and the one thing they refused to give an inch on was health benefits - they currently have a health plan where they pay 3% of the cost, as opposed to an average employee contribution of 25%+. Biden and Buttegieg will hammer her on that.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
G, I do believe you are completely wrong. We will see 13th December.
This is going to get very boring if we have another election campaign where the media spend all the time constantly talking about opinion polls. It’s almost as if the worse the pollsters perform election after election, the more the press treat them as definitive guides to public opinion. Madness!
Surely, once all the candidates are announced, the media will switch attention to their social media profile, Facebook and twitter feeds.
If we are going to have 650 TBP candidates, as well as hurried selections by the other parties, there are going to be plenty of nutters who will slip through.
TBP candidate who believed she was an extraterrestrial from Sirius was a very promising start, but there is more fun & games for the media to come.
Subsample. They even put in the article that it should be ignored.
SNP 27, Con 24, Lab 21
Pure fanciful bullshit. They should be ashamed of publishing that.
I'm sure HYUFD will be along to take it as gospel in a moment.
On those figures - which I am not inclined to trust - Labour will gain several seats from the SNP! Having checked the 2017 results, Labour would gain 8 seats from the SNP.
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
Who knows.
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
Who knows.
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
The BBC election night coverage since the 50's is on YouTube. If you look at them, one thing stands out: the Libs always undershoot, never exceed expectations. Sometimes they do well, sometimes badly, but always a little bit worse than expected and sometimes much worse.
A couple of days ago the Lib Dems were hyping a Gain in Ross, Skye and Lochaber. From 4th place and 12% of the vote. They are their own worst enemies.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
G, I do believe you are completely wrong. We will see 13th December.
I think we may both be satisfied. Some SNP gains but some Scons holds because of the union vote
But of course we will see in December and whatever the result I still have the Scots at the centre of my affections and I will accept it without question.
Either all of these polls are crap or the Lds are on the slide.
By my reckoning the Lib Dems have nearly doubled their vote share since 2017.
Yes but the recent direction of travel is backwards. As you know.
The LDs have dropped 4-5 points in the last month.
It is worth, however, noting that (outside of party primaries) there's no such thing as momentum. Indeed, the evidence is that a move one month has no impact on the likelihood of seeing another move the next.
Fits the vote for anyone other than Boris, get the communist Corbyn narrative that Boris wants.
Lol if the Times is right that the Tories plan to attack Labour for reckless spending...
Labour does have reckless spending plans. They need to explain how they are going to pay for it all without the same promised tax cuts the Tories are offering.
The problem with the glossy Jo Swinson booklet was that the content was really poor. Lots of vague vacuous statements, not grounded in lived experience, or stories that people could relate to. The response to a question about why she was involved in politics mentioned student campaigning she did at university, but the most specific thing referred to is "Body Shop petitions" whatever that means.
I remember the stuff that the Tories sent out in 2010, and it was so much better (even though I strongly disagreed with the politics). So far, and it's *very* early, they look to be missing out on a big opportunity.
The Body Shop organises petitions among its customers - I was responsible for arranging one a few years ago on ending animal testing for cosmetics (which they've now repeated globally and got a million signatures). But while she might have got some reader interest if she'd said what the petitions were about, just mentioning signing namless petitions sounds vacuous.
I know there’s been a lot of churn in 10 years. But aren’t we looking at:
- Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good). - Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).
So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.
All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful. </p>
Why would Corbyn get as much as Brown? He certainly won't do as well as Brown in Scotland, that's a couple of percentage points right there. He's not going to do as well as Brown in Wales either, that's maybe 1% more?
That's before considering how many voters in England don't want to vote for an antisemite but were happy to vote for Brown.
EDIT: PS even if Tories did no better than 2017 that's >40% possible.
I suppose I’m saying that Corbyn will outperform Brown in England because Swinson will underperform Clegg. And I think Corbyn’s appeal remains better than assumed/polled.
If Boris gets 40% then biscuits and gravy. But I’d have thought he’s being nowhere near as complacent to assume he’s on course for this.
What’s the view on turnout? Worse than 2017? The best money Cummings could spend this campaign sounds like to pay a few people with video cameras to very visibly stand outside the polling booths in places like Canterbury.
I doubt Warren' health plans will hit her with Democratic primary voters, with general election voters maybe
For Democratic primary voters whose priority is beating Trump, then having something like that "may hit her with general election voters" is a problem.
In addition, advocating a policy that forces Union members to give up their current hard earned and often generous private health benefits in exchange for Medicare is problematic with Union member Democrats and their families. The UAW just had a huge strike at GM and the one thing they refused to give an inch on was health benefits - they currently have a health plan where they pay 3% of the cost, as opposed to an average employee contribution of 25%+. Biden and Buttegieg will hammer her on that.
To be honest with you HY, the poll numbers seem very credible for where we are right now, but at first glance the seat numbers feel so big a Tory victory. But at second glance that isn’t that great a lab to Tory seat pick up to create that 70 near landslide majority.
But that is if you think of the figures at end of parliament, not the moment we finished the election last time. Those figures changed dramatically during the short parliament. One thing Curtice put his head up and said the moment the election called, we could see a lot more non Tory and Labour MPs returned than historically. Does that seat calculator say Tory win every single seat from defector and whipless wonder?
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?
The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.
S Carolina is his problem. But it will be a nice problem to have if he wins in Iowa.
Indeed.
I see Buttigieg and Warren as being roughly 45% shots apiece for Iowa. Buttigieg absolutely has to win it. Warren, so long as she's a good second, can afford to lose.
The really interesting question is what happens if Biden places third or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His selling point is that he's a winner. And I think if you take that away, there's not much there.
But its still incredible that some are writing Labour off as though such a recovery is definitely impossible. It doesn't even need to be the same level of recovery as last time. The debate might even be a critical moment, if up to then not much Labour cutting the gap, or the reverse, to see if BoJo and JerCo can step up.
The Lib Dems need to do something or other and fast.
Get Layla in for Swinson quick
Layla could give the leadership a bash after Swinson
If Chuka wins Cities of London and Westminster he will likely be next LD leader
He won't.
Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter
Chuka seems a nice lad. He doesn’t strike me as a leader. Depends if the Lib Dem’s are happy to sit around talking to themselves in a nice and pleasant way, or want to become the second party post Corbyn. Equally I am mystified why anyone thinks the quite peculiar seeming Layla Moran would be fairing better than Swinson.
The only polling that is close is the Iowa ones, but there Warren is polling better. In the other early contests Buttigeig is not in the running.
Warren certainly has detailed plans and policies vulnerable to fisking, while Buttigeig specialises in vague waffle, but how long is that sustainable?
The latest New Hampshire poll has him in double digits. He's got the big mo.
S Carolina is his problem. But it will be a nice problem to have if he wins in Iowa.
Indeed.
I see Buttigieg and Warren as being roughly 45% shots apiece for Iowa. Buttigieg absolutely has to win it. Warren, so long as she's a good second, can afford to lose.
The really interesting question is what happens if Biden places third or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His selling point is that he's a winner. And I think if you take that away, there's not much there.
Especially if Booker and Harris had already run out of funds and pulled out.
Comments
- Labour unlikely to do worse than Brown 2010, when Clegg achieved a historic outperformance for the Libs (Jo not as good).
- Tory unlikely to do better than May 2017, when there was a historic consolidation by the Big 2 (and no functioning anti EU party to drain their vote share).
So that’s Labour to get >30%. And Tory to get <40%.
All this about 12-16% leads seems fanciful.
Boris leads in most indicators and will not be a TM on the campaign trail.
However, this has five more weeks to go and it could still be a hung parliament
And that is my honest non biased opinion
He knows his voter base
That's before considering how many voters in England don't want to vote for an antisemite but were happy to vote for Brown.
EDIT: PS even if Tories did no better than 2017 that's >40% possible.
But that is if you think of the figures at end of parliament, not the moment we finished the election last time. Those figures changed dramatically during the short parliament. One thing Curtice put his head up and said the moment the election called, we could see a lot more non Tory and Labour MPs returned than historically. Does that seat calculator say Tory win every single seat from defector and whipless wonder?
JICIPM
CON 375
LAB 204
LD 11
SNP 37
PC 4
NI 18
GRN 1
SNP Gain Dumbartonshire East
Con Gain Barrow Bassetlaw Bedford Dudley North PenisTown Both Stoke seats Workington
LD Gain Richmond
Ironic TM was going to abolish the triple lock before Corbyn vetoed it
In addition, advocating a policy that forces Union members to give up their current hard earned and often generous private health benefits in exchange for Medicare is problematic with Union member Democrats and their families. The UAW just had a huge strike at GM and the one thing they refused to give an inch on was health benefits - they currently have a health plan where they pay 3% of the cost, as opposed to an average employee contribution of 25%+. Biden and Buttegieg will hammer her on that.
If we are going to have 650 TBP candidates, as well as hurried selections by the other parties, there are going to be plenty of nutters who will slip through.
TBP candidate who believed she was an extraterrestrial from Sirius was a very promising start, but there is more fun & games for the media to come.
Your not bigging that one up?
But of course we will see in December and whatever the result I still have the Scots at the centre of my affections and I will accept it without question.
It is worth, however, noting that (outside of party primaries) there's no such thing as momentum. Indeed, the evidence is that a move one month has no impact on the likelihood of seeing another move the next.
Oh its 3.9%
HE HAS NO CHOICE its the law BigG
Is it too late for a Labour leadership election before polling day?
CON: 38.0% (+1.4)
LAB: 26.0% (+1.5)
LDM: 16.7% (-1.2)
BXP: 10.2% (-0.9)
GRN: 3.4% (-0.6)
Changes w/ 29th Oct. https://t.co/WL4LvRteRR
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/difficult-not-use-force-nick-clegg-says-john-mcdonnell-video/
Though of course a Tory majority Government will block indyref2 until at least the next Holyrood elections anyway
If Boris gets 40% then biscuits and gravy. But I’d have thought he’s being nowhere near as complacent to assume he’s on course for this.
What’s the view on turnout? Worse than 2017? The best money Cummings could spend this campaign sounds like to pay a few people with video cameras to very visibly stand outside the polling booths in places like Canterbury.
Because it wont be a moderate
Wild card, post-defeat - Jess Phillips
Plus the Brexit Party will take Labour working class votes in the North, Wales and Midlands and the LDs are doing better in Labour Remain seats
Its wipeout under Tory Swinson
I can’t keep up. It all too volatile. Jo started the evening storming it.
Nobody likes a hypocrite and splitter
I see Buttigieg and Warren as being roughly 45% shots apiece for Iowa. Buttigieg absolutely has to win it. Warren, so long as she's a good second, can afford to lose.
The really interesting question is what happens if Biden places third or worse in both Iowa and New Hampshire. His selling point is that he's a winner. And I think if you take that away, there's not much there.
Incidentally, with a Dec 12 election, what’s the latest it can be held, five years on top is right on Christmas again 🥳.
But its still incredible that some are writing Labour off as though such a recovery is definitely impossible. It doesn't even need to be the same level of recovery as last time. The debate might even be a critical moment, if up to then not much Labour cutting the gap, or the reverse, to see if BoJo and JerCo can step up.
Lose Norfolk North and Eastbourne in a terrible night for Tory Swinson
BTW, I am disappointed that nobody has attempted to sound the Scottish Labour surge KLAXON!