There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead. For different reasons. I suspect that both the Tory and Labour camps will be quite satisfied tonight . The LDs will have taken a knock.
All to be taken with a bucket of salt at this stage of a v volatile election.
But is it volatile. Poll after poll show 40% want brexit wrangling out their lives with a Boris win. Why shouldn’t this be it, all up to the glorious 12th?
No evidence at all to suggest it's volatile, but the last couple have been so people are assuming it'll continue.
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift. Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Spreads might be smart enough to suspect regional variations and much TV.
TV meaning tactical vote. Just thought ide explain that for any newbies lurking wondering what an election is and all the jargon we use.
For those curious newbies, other jargon we use.
pineapple. A pineapple is a term for a poll you don’t like the taste of. Just thinking of the poll makes you feel queasy.
All the polls are pineapple to labour tonight.
Other tips for newbie lurkers, if you see any reference to train timetable, journey, engine or carriage numbers, this is in fact secret code how we share hot tips with each other without rest of world getting on it and shifting the price.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift. Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as well
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017. I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift. Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as well
No loyalty is involved - I am spoiling my ballot paper. On tonight's figures Labour will gain seats in Scotland - IF they are at all accurate.
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017. I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift. Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as well
No loyalty is involved - I am spoiling my ballot paper. On tonight's figures Labour will gain seats in Scotlanf - IF they are at all accurate.
I hope you are keeping an eye on your niece -- we don't want her to lose that bequest with a slip of the pen on the ballot paper !
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
All of that is baked into these Voting Intention figures.If Corbyn campaigns well , that data will shift. Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.
If nothing else you are loyal but Corbyn is too far behind in all areas and he is going to lose seats and that is the case in Scotland as well
No loyalty is involved - I am spoiling my ballot paper. On tonight's figures Labour will gain seats in Scotland - IF they are at all accurate.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Delta does show a slight fall in the Tory lead from 13% to 12%. At the same point in the 2017 campaign , Opinium reported a 17% Tory lead with ORB putting them 11% ahead.
Look at the leader ratings and now Boris is ahead on the NHS by 6
And do not even think on who is most trusted on brexit
In Scotland I do believe Nicola has made a big mistake because she has united the union vote sgainst her
This was always going to happen regardless of what Sturgeon said.
Apart from abandoning the very notion of independence itself what could have Sturgeon said to avoid uniting the unionist vote against her?
2017 saw unprecedented levels of Unionist tactical voting
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017. I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
You are blinded to reality and in denial
You think Boris is honest, will complete Brexit and unite the country.
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017. I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
Yes, sometimes it is turned around, but most of the time it won't be. 2001 - Labour had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory. 1997 - Labout had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory. 1987 - The Tories had some double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory. 1983 - The Tories had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
2019 - The Tories have double digit poll leads. The most likely outcome is that they win a crushing victory.
Gimme hope Jo Swinson Hope Jo Swinson Gimme hope Jo Swinson 'Fore the morning come Gimme hope, Jo Swinson Hope, Jo Swinson Hope before the morning come
Corbyn 6 behind Boris on the NHS. Maybe the voters want it sold to the US?
Nope. They just don’t believe they hype and attacks that comes out the unpopular labour leadership. And so shall it continue, probably all up to and passed the point it is privatised.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Yes - but justin is correct that the route to improving the outcome goes through avoiding anti-Tory voters wandering off to the LibDems in Lab-Con marginals. I'm reasonably OK with these polls at this point - I'll explain why in a header tomorrow.
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
What makes you think that? What we don't know is how much the figures are concentrating in marginals, of course. But although Corbyn is behind Johnson in every catrgory on the latest poll, Swinson is behind Corbyn in every category too (except Grinch!), and the LibDems have made her a central figure in their literature, so I'm not sure it's still lack of familiarity.
I agree, silly isn’t it. Boris in crisis because his rating chugging ever upward are running out of steam.
Like the papers coverage of the football, when you haven’t won for 4 games suddenly you’re in crisis.
What’s interesting getting so many polls at once is the clear trend. Tories round about 40, labour about 27, libdems about 18. Brexit Party crushed and not even a player now.
Kinda curious to see poll after poll implying a crushing Bozo victory, yet the spreads are stuck on 320.
Wondering perhaps if the betting markets are fighting the last war, assuming a repeat.
Looks that way. I think that, most elections, if one party starts the campaign with leads in the range of 10-15 points then they're going to win a crushing victory. Sometimes, rarely, it will be turned around, but it's really hard to do.
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
But it is a smaller lead than enjoyed by the Tories at the same stage in 2017. I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
Yes, sometimes it is turned around, but most of the time it won't be. 2001 - Labour had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory. 1997 - Labout had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory. 1987 - The Tories had some double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory. 1983 - The Tories had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
2019 - The Tories have double digit poll leads. The most likely outcome is that they win a crushing victory.
But in both 1997 and 2001 Labour's lead in the popular vote was much smaller than polls were suggesting early in those campaigns. In 1997 Labour won by 13% - in 2001 the margin was circa 9% -, but polls had been predicting 20% plus margins for much of both campaigns. In 1987 the Tories began with leads as high as 18% - and won by 11.8%. The Tory margin held up in 1983 - but the vote shares of both parties fell back as a result of the Alliance surge.
Gimme hope Jo Swinson Hope Jo Swinson Gimme hope Jo Swinson 'Fore the morning come Gimme hope, Jo Swinson Hope, Jo Swinson Hope before the morning come
But there’s still time for the Swinstorm (c)philih once she starts debating. How does she normally debate, serene, respectful, with the aura of experience and wisdom the moment needs?
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
What makes you think that? What we don't know is how much the figures are concentrating in marginals, of course. But although Corbyn is behind Johnson in every catrgory on the latest poll, Swinson is behind Corbyn in every category too (except Grinch!), and the LibDems have made her a central figure in their literature, so I'm not sure it's still lack of familiarity.
The problem with the glossy Jo Swinson booklet was that the content was really poor. Lots of vague vacuous statements, not grounded in lived experience, or stories that people could relate to. The response to a question about why she was involved in politics mentioned student campaigning she did at university, but the most specific thing referred to is "Body Shop petitions" whatever that means.
I remember the stuff that the Tories sent out in 2010, and it was so much better (even though I strongly disagreed with the politics). So far, and it's *very* early, they look to be missing out on a big opportunity.
Just one poll, etc, but that's a mighty big LD drop. Still a big improvement on last time, but those fickle voters might just not deliver for them once again.
There is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is now well clear of the LDs for the first time since April. That makes it easier to push the message 'If you want to stop Johnson , you have to Vote Labour'.
Similarly, there is growing evidence from these polls that Labour is well behind Cons and isn't reducing the lead
Let’s not demoralise Justin before the end of the first week. Where’s the sport in that.
Keep telling yourself Justin, All oppositions recover from bad polls, it’s always governments who die in the end.
Hang in till at least last weekend before polling hoping something miraculous will turn up.
I think if labour are not closing the gap at all in the next couple of weeks thered be reason to be very concerned for labour. Thus early on it's just concerning for them without giving reason to give up hope.
I suspect the LDs are doing much better than this.
Who knows.
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
So we are pouring over the numbers looking for signs of Joggasm? The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?
Update. Swinstorm much better.
Swinstorm it is. A tornado valley type twister to lift Dorothy all the way to Downing Street.
Don’t you just love PB when we set a lead for the rest of the media to follow?
Needs to have love-in connotations like Cleggasm. May I humbly suggest Swinswoon.
Oh I love swinswoon. Very good. Very strong. It’s up there with swinstorm. Just marginally behind I suggest, because it’s not so slippy off the tongue, and a storm is a storm is a storm, which you’d rather have in politics than a swoon?
This is going to get very boring if we have another election campaign where the media spend all the time constantly talking about opinion polls. It’s almost as if the worse the pollsters perform election after election, the more the press treat them as definitive guides to public opinion. Madness!
Labour's highest vote share with Yougov since end of April. Labour began the 2017 campaign with a 24% share.
A lot of people want to believe LD voters wont go Lab again, or that it makes no sense. Early days, but theres at least some indications that is bollocks.
This is going to get very boring if we have another election campaign where the media spend all the time constantly talking about opinion polls. It’s almost as if the worse the pollsters perform election after election, the more the press treat them as definitive guides to public opinion. Madness!
It's a simple area to focus on and reporting them cannot draw complaint in the way reporting on an actual event does.
Concerning thing is there is a lot of LD to squeeze there. BXP squeeze nearly complete.
It is a real risk if LibDem voters come to the conclusion that Revoke with the Libdems is dead but there is still a chance with Labour's renegotiation then second vote.
However, it requires LibDems to vote for the anti-semites. They have to hold their nose and overcome their gag reflex. It's not for all by any means.
Comments
Still, there is a possibility that the YouGov MRP will show something different.
All anyone hears is revoke and that could be a very big error
Why on earth did they not adopt the peoples vote (daft name) and openly campaign for a referendum. Curious to say the least
Re - Scotland I rather agree with you as far as Sturgeon is concerned - but the pro- union vote actually looks divided on those figures with Tories on 24% and Labour on 22%. As I have pointed out in the past, if the SNP fall back at all compared with 2017 , Labour has the potential for significant gains there. I have never expected the SNP to exceed 35% at the next Westminster election - but I would need confirmatory evidence before really accepting the data released tonight.
TV meaning tactical vote. Just thought ide explain that for any newbies lurking wondering what an election is and all the jargon we use.
For those curious newbies, other jargon we use.
pineapple. A pineapple is a term for a poll you don’t like the taste of. Just thinking of the poll makes you feel queasy.
All the polls are pineapple to labour tonight.
Other tips for newbie lurkers, if you see any reference to train timetable, journey, engine or carriage numbers, this is in fact secret code how we share hot tips with each other without rest of world getting on it and shifting the price.
In 2005 everyone thought they'd win 100 seats after Iraq. In 2010 we had the Cleggasm yet the Libs lost seats in the end...
I am also recalling the February 1974 election - which was only a 3 week campaign. In the first week there were polls giving the Tories leads of 8% , 9% and 11%. Barely two weeks later the Tories led in the popular vote by 0.8%.
The Cleggasm didn’t start squirting till that first debate in Bristol?
Apart from abandoning the very notion of independence itself what could have Sturgeon said to avoid uniting the unionist vote against her?
2017 saw unprecedented levels of Unionist tactical voting
Swinstorm it is. A tornado valley type twister to lift Dorothy all the way to Downing Street.
Don’t you just love PB when we set a lead for the rest of the media to follow?
2001 - Labour had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1997 - Labout had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1987 - The Tories had some double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
1983 - The Tories had double-digit poll leads. They won a crushing victory.
2019 - The Tories have double digit poll leads. The most likely outcome is that they win a crushing victory.
Pot. Kettle.
Con 39 (+3)
Lab 27 (+6)
LD 16 (-3)
BXP 7 (-6)
Hope Jo Swinson
Gimme hope Jo Swinson
'Fore the morning come
Gimme hope, Jo Swinson
Hope, Jo Swinson
Hope before the morning come
Tory lead up to 8
Con 36 +3
Lab 28 -1
LD 17 -1
BP 10 -2
Otherwise it will be a boring 6 weeks
Like the papers coverage of the football, when you haven’t won for 4 games suddenly you’re in crisis.
What’s interesting getting so many polls at once is the clear trend. Tories round about 40, labour about 27, libdems about 18. Brexit Party crushed and not even a player now.
In 1987 the Tories began with leads as high as 18% - and won by 11.8%. The Tory margin held up in 1983 - but the vote shares of both parties fell back as a result of the Alliance surge.
How does she normally debate, serene, respectful, with the aura of experience and wisdom the moment needs?
SNP 46%
CON 16%
LAB 19%
LD 9%
Stick that in your seat calculator and smoke it
I remember the stuff that the Tories sent out in 2010, and it was so much better (even though I strongly disagreed with the politics). So far, and it's *very* early, they look to be missing out on a big opportunity.
Comres/Orb/Survation 8%
Panel/YG/Delta 11/12/12
Opinium (and guessing Kantar) 16%
https://starwars.fandom.com/wiki/Admiral?file=Ackbar_CloseUp.jpg
It’s up there with swinstorm. Just marginally behind I suggest, because it’s not so slippy off the tongue, and a storm is a storm is a storm, which you’d rather have in politics than a swoon?
So of course that's not it.
And if BP get traction could they squeeze back, and it becomes a game of who squeeze me last laughs loudest?
However, it requires LibDems to vote for the anti-semites. They have to hold their nose and overcome their gag reflex. It's not for all by any means.
So their YouGov won’t be getting back into double figures at Boris expense.
They’ve been juiced.
And there was me thinking I was actually in agreement with you.
Tories 359
Labour 205
LDs 29
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36&LAB=28&LIB=17&Brexit=10&Green=3&UKIP=1&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
That seems to be the standard of the commentary tonight from the newspapers.