politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum
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100% not first - just like George Osborne on The People's Vote "leading remainers" spreadsheet!
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That was SOT south, which has more prosporous areas/middleclass areas like Trentham. It also used to have mines within it and we have seen ex mining areas drift away from Labour/ less hostile to the Tories.ydoethur said:
I’ve never lived there, but in case you have forgotten, they Already HAVE won a seat there:The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
He was afraid of a geopolitical schism between Europe and America, and sacrificed his legacy and ultimately plunged his country into an existential crisis in a futile attempt to act as a bridge.Peter_the_Punter said:
Simples. Brownnosing Bush - an unnecessary and disastrous tendency.OldKingCole said:Just been to see 'Official Secrets'. Tony Blair, what the &^%$£ did you think you were doing over Iraq. I know it's a while ago now, but.......
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This election has come about by Jo Swinson wrong footing the peoples vote and labour with a brave decision
Well done to her0 -
But we were talking of establishing laws...Beibheirli_C said:
I think counting was around before the concept of an axiomatic system to explain it and the point of an axiomatic system is that you accept the axioms and thus avoid the need for a framework.Nigelb said:
One has to establish a whole mathematical framework before one can count.ydoethur said:
Nah, the first law of politics is, ‘count.’Nigelb said:
The first law of politics is that politics has an awful lot of first laws.IanB2 said:
First law of politics is that people opposed to anything are always the most exercised.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Apart from anything else, if you can’t count you won’t know how many other first laws of politics there are.0 -
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.Recidivist said:I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.0 -
I live about 25 miles from Stoke but it feels more like 250 miles away.Recidivist said:
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.0 -
Romney becoming considerably more scathing about Trump than hitherto;
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/467939-romney-vindman-attacks-absurd-disgusting
It’s absurd, disgusting, and way off the mark. This is a decorated American soldier and he should be given the respect that his service to our country demands...0 -
Baseline 10-15 gain, less SW brexity outliers?Philip_Thompson said:
So the par line then is a 19% Tory majority over the LDs?rcs1000 said:
Of course. The LD vote share is up from 7% to 19%, and the Tories are down from 44% to 37%. If you add 12 point to the LD vote share and take seven from the Conservatives, then it's a LD gain.Philip_Thompson said:
Any majority over 5000 and over 10% in normal times is fairly massive, especially when a party is forecast to be gaining not losing seats! 6000 votes and 10.7% majority is pretty massive in my eyes especially given this is a general election not a by election.rcs1000 said:
She doesn't have a massive majority, she has a 6,000 vote one.Philip_Thompson said:
Why are people so confidently predicting that? Her majority was slashed last time but she still has a massive majority. If Tories are losing seats with such a big majority it seems unlikely they will hold a majority overall.rcs1000 said:
To be fair, that's the last speech in the House of Commons that Anne Main is likely to make.AndyJS said:Not very fair that Anne Main spoke for 35 minutes and Caroline Lucas gets 3 minutes for her speech.
On my four part model:
1. UNS?
LD by a big margin.
2. Remainy?
Yes very.
3. Local elections?
LDs did extremely well this year.
4. Squeezability?
Lots of Lab votes to go LD
rcs1000 says "one of about a dozen LD gains this year"
Is UNS really showing LDs taking 10.7% majorities by a big margin?0 -
Still is if you’re heading east for Uttoxeter, Ashbourne and Derby.Beibheirli_C said:
SoT - the local joke is that the best thing about SoT is the road out of it. Ironically that was the A50 for a long time....The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.0 -
So what you’re saying is, it wasn’t proper Stoke on Trent?The_Taxman said:
That was SOT south, which has more prosporous areas/middleclass areas like Trentham. It also used to have mines within it and we have seen ex mining areas drift away from Labour/ less hostile to the Tories.ydoethur said:
I’ve never lived there, but in case you have forgotten, they Already HAVE won a seat there:The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)1 -
Is there an accessible spreadsheet that anyone is aware of that combines the GE 2017 result and the 2016 referendum result by constituency? Logic suggests to me that there should be, but a quick Google search doesn't reveal one.0
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This is going to be the election which kills off UNS. swing is not uniform but UNS does nothing to counter it. What is needed is something like UNS but provides a level of certainty of the results (and a band of likely seats not an absolute number).ydoethur said:
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.Recidivist said:I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.1 -
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?Recidivist said:
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.-1 -
Well, you're putting it kindly.williamglenn said:
He was afraid of a geopolitical schism between Europe and America, and sacrificed his legacy and ultimately plunged his country into an existential crisis in a futile attempt to act as a bridge.Peter_the_Punter said:
Simples. Brownnosing Bush - an unnecessary and disastrous tendency.OldKingCole said:Just been to see 'Official Secrets'. Tony Blair, what the &^%$£ did you think you were doing over Iraq. I know it's a while ago now, but.......
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Recidivist said:
I lived there for a number of years, and also in Newcastle under Lyme. There are middle class pockets, and people commuting to elsewhere in the West Mids, lured by the transport links and cheap housing. Plus a lot of pissed off Leave voters, who aren't sold on the likes of Corbyn.The_Taxman said:
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.ydoethur said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...The_Taxman said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.Recidivist said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Brom said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Recidivist said:
.HYUFD said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
Will be interesing to watch S-o-T seats on election night. I think Paul Farrelly is retiring in Newcastle-u-L, which could easily go blue. There used to be a sizeable LD vote in Newcastle, (due to Keele University students living mainly in the seat, and Mike Tappin winning Staffs East as an MEP) which could let the Tories in.0 -
Absolutely. The LDs have a better chance of winning Wimbledon than North Devon at this election even though they only need a small swing to win the latter and in Wimbledon they were 32% behind in third place. It's going to be more like a Canadian election in many ways, where the swings in different areas are all over the place.spudgfsh said:
This is going to be the election which kills off UNS. swing is not uniform but UNS does nothing to counter it. What is needed is something like UNS but provides a level of certainty of the results (and a band of likely seats not an absolute number).ydoethur said:
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.Recidivist said:I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.1 -
He might have read it on a topical forum.RobD said:
What a ridiculous question.Beibheirli_C said:
Does anyone still read that?rottenborough said:Another headline change at D Mail website.
How else would he know?
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This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!0 -
PB has of course a proprietary interest in that one, eh, @Tissue_Price?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I lived there for a number of years, and also in Newcastle under Lyme. There are middle class pockets, and people commuting to elsewhere in the West Mids, lured by the transport links and cheap housing. Plus a lot of pissed off Leave voters, who aren't sold on the likes of Corbyn.
Will be interesing to watch S-o-T seats on election night. I think Paul Farrelly is retiring in Newcastle-u-L, which could easily go blue. There used to be a sizeable LD vote in Newcastle, (due to Keele University students living mainly in the seat, and Mike Tappin winning Staffs East as an MEP) which could let the Tories in.
https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1176593835385872384?lang=en2 -
That is the more sensible solution allow 16+ to vote in locals and see how it goes they are have an interest in local services and would involve them earlier.AndyJS said:On the subject of 16 and 17 year olds, I would allow them to drink beer, wine and cider at pubs and restaurants without having to have an adult present with a meal as is the case at present, and bring it into line with most mainland European countries. And they should be allowed to vote at local elections IMO.
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Swire standing down must make the E Devon Indy the favourite there1
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A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.0
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And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?ydoethur said:
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.Recidivist said:I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.1 -
I don't see the appeal of such devotion, frankly, and his qualities were not so apparenty that he remained happily anonymous on the back benches for 30 years,Roger said:I have just watched Corbyn announce the start of his campaign. He's an attractive politician and I suspect we're all underestimating him. What's more his followers adore him. You can see it. I think in the midst of all the criticism and always being on the back foot it was easy to forget his qualities. He has an aura and an honesty and in to days politics that could be quite a USP.
However, you are right that he is underestimated and that adoration, however much I do not understand it, is useful.
But it does have limitations, and there are reasons he has spent years struggling with his own MPs and poor ratings - MPs want an easy life, they don't express such concerns without reservations being genuine.
Perfect consistency may not be reasonable, but more consistency than we have at present is not, and there are many things where the basic question of if we think they are children or adults would see changes to the age limits.kinabalu said:
Adopt a child at 18? That feels wrong.Gabs2 said:I would put all of that at 18.
I think the desire for perfect consistency in these matter is misplaced.0 -
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!0 -
The problem being of course that minor party votes especially for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are much more likely to hurt Labour than the conservatives, who as Curtice himself notes stand pretty well alone on the right. The Brexit Party might be an exception, but every survey we’ve got indicates they harm Labour at least as much.Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!0 -
I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.ydoethur said:
So what you’re saying is, it wasn’t proper Stoke on Trent?The_Taxman said:
That was SOT south, which has more prosporous areas/middleclass areas like Trentham. It also used to have mines within it and we have seen ex mining areas drift away from Labour/ less hostile to the Tories.ydoethur said:
I’ve never lived there, but in case you have forgotten, they Already HAVE won a seat there:The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke ot ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoke-on-Trent_South_(UK_Parliament_constituency)0 -
Agreed. For exactly the reasons I give.IanB2 said:
And a cautionary tale about relying too heavily on people who ‘know the area’?ydoethur said:
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.Recidivist said:I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.0 -
The Leave vote didn't need to march.Nigel_Foremain said:A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
We won.4 -
Farage is going nowhere, most Leavers are now firmly behind Boris while Swinson's main role at present is keeping Corbyn out of Downing Streetwilliamglenn said:
If the Brexit Party does relatively well, they will prevent the Conservatives winning seats from Labour, and supercharge the Lib Dems in Tory areas.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Nigel Farage could put Jo Swinson in Downing Street.0 -
There are many areas of the country where the average voter would rather poke his own eyes out with a blunt instrument than vote Tory. Spotty and gullible Boris fanboys that think he will change this dynamic are in for a rude awakening.AndyJS said:
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?Recidivist said:
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.0 -
My experienced is the former is less focused, as some feel voting is now pointless as parliament refused to follow through, and some will vote counter productively as Boris's Brexit is not really Brexit. Pissed off remainers could be divided between various different parties insisting they are the only true remain option, but have more reason to be tactical. Voting tactically for Boris won't deliver no deal, not anymore, but voting tactically for Lab/LD/SNP will deliver a referendum.Nigel_Foremain said:A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
0 -
I did.AndyJS said:
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?Recidivist said:
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4 years. I doubt the Tories will win there and seriously question where the footsoldiers will come from to canvass it. Labour have a machine in those seats. It may not be as robust as it once demonstrated but i am very sceptical about the viability of seats like that as Tory gains, particularly in December...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.0 -
I will be knocking on doors in marginal seats in London and Essex and it is C2 voters the Tories need not deprived DEs who will stay LabourThe_Taxman said:
Hyufd has no idea. He wont be knocking on doors in the dark in deprived areas in the north...Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
0 -
You may have meant it, but as far as I can see you didn’t say it.The_Taxman said:I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.
Indeed, on paper SOTS should be less amenable to the Tories than SOTN.
So I don’t see your point matches the facts. It’s me and Ystradgynlais all over again.
By the way, will I make people jealous if I say I’m outside on a balcony in shirtsleeves, shorts and sandals?0 -
To use the comparisons beloved of HYUFD, could Jo become the Jacinda Arden of 2019?Big_G_NorthWales said:This election has come about by Jo Swinson wrong footing the peoples vote and labour with a brave decision
Well done to her0 -
Well done Aaron!ydoethur said:
PB has of course a proprietary interest in that one, eh, @Tissue_Price?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:I lived there for a number of years, and also in Newcastle under Lyme. There are middle class pockets, and people commuting to elsewhere in the West Mids, lured by the transport links and cheap housing. Plus a lot of pissed off Leave voters, who aren't sold on the likes of Corbyn.
Will be interesing to watch S-o-T seats on election night. I think Paul Farrelly is retiring in Newcastle-u-L, which could easily go blue. There used to be a sizeable LD vote in Newcastle, (due to Keele University students living mainly in the seat, and Mike Tappin winning Staffs East as an MEP) which could let the Tories in.
https://twitter.com/aaronbell4nul/status/1176593835385872384?lang=en0 -
Dear CorbynHYUFD said:
I will be knocking on doors in marginal seats in London and Essex and it is C2 voters the Tories need not deprived DEs who will stay LabourThe_Taxman said:
Hyufd has no idea. He wont be knocking on doors in the dark in deprived areas in the north...Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
Good news! You’re going to do better than expected in London and Essex.1 -
keep clutching those straws!ydoethur said:
The problem being of course that minor party votes especially for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are much more likely to hurt Labour than the conservatives, who as Curtice himself notes stand pretty well alone on the right. The Brexit Party might be an exception, but every survey we’ve got indicates they harm Labour at least as much.Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!0 -
after the 2005 election there were 93 'non labour/tory' MPs and Labour got a comfortable majority. That said both Tories and Labour are going to lose votes when compared to the last election, it will make it difficult to determine what seats will change hands (and to whom).Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!0 -
Sense has prevailed and the two amendments on EU nationals and 16 and 17 year olds have not been picked .
There is a discussion to be had but this needs proper consultation and not attached to this bill .
And to be blunt some MPs were more interested in showboating and looking for campaign slogans .
Either they want an election or they don’t.0 -
The Tories already have an MP in Stoke and now have 15 Tory councillors there too, they have plenty of on the ground activists alreadyThe_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
0 -
No point, I’ve drunk everything in the glass.Nigel_Foremain said:
keep clutching those straws!ydoethur said:
The problem being of course that minor party votes especially for the Greens and the Liberal Democrats are much more likely to hurt Labour than the conservatives, who as Curtice himself notes stand pretty well alone on the right. The Brexit Party might be an exception, but every survey we’ve got indicates they harm Labour at least as much.Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!0 -
-
Quite an effective character assassination wasn't it even if it was several years ago.OldKingCole said:Just been to see 'Official Secrets'. Tony Blair, what the &^%$£ did you think you were doing over Iraq. I know it's a while ago now, but.......
0 -
No, for starters Ardern already led the main opppositionPeterC said:
To use the comparisons beloved of HYUFD, could Jo become the Jacinda Arden of 2019?Big_G_NorthWales said:This election has come about by Jo Swinson wrong footing the peoples vote and labour with a brave decision
Well done to her0 -
Agreed, my very uncertain guess/prediction is a minority Labour administration, not led by Corbyn , with confidence and supply from SNP and LDs. New referendum highly likely, though not necessarily desirable IMHOkle4 said:
My experienced is the former is less focused, as some feel voting is now pointless as parliament refused to follow through, and some will vote counter productively as Boris's Brexit is not really Brexit. Pissed off remainers could be divided between various different parties insisting they are the only true remain option, but have more reason to be tactical. Voting tactically for Boris won't deliver no deal, not anymore, but voting tactically for Lab/LD/SNP will deliver a referendum.Nigel_Foremain said:A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
0 -
See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy3
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Could easily but I've not looked closely.Pro_Rata said:
Any support for a hunch that at least one of the Tory gains from Labour last time out will revert, because the seats are more BXP friendly and BXP19 will outpoll UKIP 17?TOPPING said:
I need to find that interview with some bloke on R5 who said that 13 of the 26 Labour "northern leave seats" will remain Labour while Cons might lose its 13 Scots seats leaving it a wash.contrarian said:The 'strongest leave voting seats' do have some pretty entrenched and well known labour figures - eg Yvette Cooper....surely she would be safe.
0 -
Buzzing for this election.0
-
I confess I did have a chuckle at this take on why certain pro-eu politicians are more or less popular
https://twitter.com/imbadatlife/status/11891068926704926723 -
Royal Mail management will now come under a lot of pressure to sort their dispute and head off the threatened December postal strike.0
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does that only hold if the election is in term time though?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
True. It's great being out of the EU isn't it.MarqueeMark said:
The Leave vote didn't need to march.Nigel_Foremain said:A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
We won.1 -
They are not yet motivated because currently we are being told we are still leaving. If that looks like changing then it is a very different matter.Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
0 -
The problem is that for a Labour government to be formed not led by Corbyn, he will have to resign as leader. That seems a bit unlikely if he’s forced a second successive hung Parliament against all the odds.Nigel_Foremain said:
Agreed, my very uncertain guess/prediction is a minority Labour administration, not led by Corbyn , with confidence and supply from SNP and LDs. New referendum highly likely, though not necessarily desirable IMHOkle4 said:
My experienced is the former is less focused, as some feel voting is now pointless as parliament refused to follow through, and some will vote counter productively as Boris's Brexit is not really Brexit. Pissed off remainers could be divided between various different parties insisting they are the only true remain option, but have more reason to be tactical. Voting tactically for Boris won't deliver no deal, not anymore, but voting tactically for Lab/LD/SNP will deliver a referendum.Nigel_Foremain said:A lot may hinge on whether the "pissed off leave voter" is more flakey than the "pissed off remain voter". The marches of the two polarised viewpoints suggest the one time 48% seem considerably more motivated.
0 -
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
1 -
Lol @ the Tories on 10% in a seat they held when I was a studentTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Most of the top 100 Tory target seats did vote for Thatcher or Major or Cameron, they have not always been Labour.Nigel_Foremain said:
There are many areas of the country where the average voter would rather poke his own eyes out with a blunt instrument than vote Tory. Spotty and gullible Boris fanboys that think he will change this dynamic are in for a rude awakening.AndyJS said:
Did you visit the National Garden Festival in 1986?Recidivist said:
I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.The_Taxman said:
I lived in SOT for 3/4er...ydoethur said:
The point about Stoke on Trent is that it has suffered forty years of austerity under governments of three different parties (four if the DUP are included). Indeed, the worst ravages came in around 2003-2005 with the closure of three of the remaining four factories - under a Labour government.The_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
It is not, therefore, a happy stamping ground for any political party. It is a happy hunting ground for a Brexit referendum vote, because it was an easy way of sticking two fingers up at politicians.
Indeed on current polls the Tories are likely to win some seats for the first time since 19830 -
Because of what has happened over recent months. And the result of that is? No overall majority.noneoftheabove said:
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
Curtice is making a very important point. Essentially, either Labour or Conservatives will have to tank for the other to win outright.0 -
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1189247129107206144?s=19
Whip restored to the MPs above by the PM..not Spreadsheet Phil though0 -
For a moment I thought that was a national poll.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I'm waiting to see the swing in Bristol West0
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Curtice is working from GE outcomes, not subsequent defections and suspensionsMysticrose said:
Because of what has happened over recent months. And the result of that is? No overall majority.noneoftheabove said:
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
Curtice is making a very important point. Essentially, either Labour or Conservatives will have to tank for the other to win outright.0 -
Boris restoring the Tory whip to some MPs only, apparently.0
-
Not sure it is very important or novel, no overall majority has been strong odds on most of the last year.Mysticrose said:
Because of what has happened over recent months. And the result of that is? No overall majority.noneoftheabove said:
Err, the last time there were at least 100 MPs who are neither Tory nor Labour was today!Mysticrose said:This is SUCH an important point by John Curtice
https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/shelagh-fogarty/professor-john-curtice-makes-surprising-prediction/
Curtice makes the point that there should be at least 100 MPs who are neither Conservative nor Labour, for the first time ever. That makes an outright win for either Cons or Labour that much harder.
Do listen and bet accordingly!
Curtice is making a very important point. Essentially, either Labour or Conservatives will have to tank for the other to win outright.0 -
Sorry for the misunderstanding. Time will tell but as i say footsoldiers are key in winning a seat. Where will the Tories get people to do the donkey work? The Tories are targetting 5 seats around SOT if one includes sot south (its tory but a hyper marginal so will be defence imo), north & central. Then newcastle under lyme plus seperatly crewe and nantwich. I dont see it paying off that is all i am saying.ydoethur said:
You may have meant it, but as far as I can see you didn’t say it.The_Taxman said:I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.
Indeed, on paper SOTS should be less amenable to the Tories than SOTN.
So I don’t see your point matches the facts. It’s me and Ystradgynlais all over again.
By the way, will I make people jealous if I say I’m outside on a balcony in shirtsleeves, shorts and sandals?0 -
Agree with you Heidi Allen, and she cannot be the only MP who must be wondering whether the abuse is worth the pay scale. I visit the Cambs area regularly. People on the ground are telling me that in the non-fenland areas (where the turnip Taliban hold sway), the LDs are making substantial headway.madmacs said:See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy
1 -
Some made it pretty clear they aren't interested in having it back, so not really a surprise.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Boris restoring the Tory whip to some MPs only, apparently.
0 -
Is that traditional Labour or Tory areas?Nigel_Foremain said:
Agree with you Heidi Allen, and she cannot be the only MP who must be wondering whether the abuse is worth the pay scale. I visit the Cambs area regularly. People on the ground are telling me that in the non-fenland areas (where the turnip Taliban hold sway), the LDs are making substantial headway.madmacs said:See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy
0 -
I want to see several major upsets in London.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
In particular I want to see incumbents come third in Uxbridge, Hackney, both Islington seats and hopefully Chingford.3 -
Just need to know the dateAramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
1 -
Those procedures consisting of a note in 48pt text saying 'Do not pick the next Jared O'Mara'rottenborough said:2 -
Off topic, Chris Grayling has to be the worst transport secretary of all time.
He’s completely buggered up the railway network and franchising system and the price we’ll all be likely to pay now is nationalisation.0 -
that makes sense. an election has been on the cards for a while (and JC has been calling for one for years). if they haven't selected a candidate yet then they have run out of time.rottenborough said:0 -
Cambridge itself has been traditionally red, sometimes blue, sometimes orange. The surrounding seats are blue.Gallowgate said:
Is that traditional Labour or Tory areas?Nigel_Foremain said:
Agree with you Heidi Allen, and she cannot be the only MP who must be wondering whether the abuse is worth the pay scale. I visit the Cambs area regularly. People on the ground are telling me that in the non-fenland areas (where the turnip Taliban hold sway), the LDs are making substantial headway.madmacs said:See on Britain Elects that there is a constituency poll for Cambridge which has the Lib Dems up by 9% on Labour. I know they are notriously un-reliable but with the Greens on 11% and likely to be squeezed must give the Lib Dems a good chance. Guess it was commissioned by the lib Dems and released by them - sure to be all over their Focus leaflets. As an aside it is sad to see Heidi Allen pushed out by trolls etc - what ever your political views, surely this is a sad indictment of our democracy
0 -
Who is going to attend the counts to lead a Jimmy 'Up Your Hacienda' Goldsmith chant of 'Out, Out, Out'?ydoethur said:
I want to see several major upsets in London.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
In particular I want to see incumbents come third in Uxbridge, Hackney, both Islington seats and hopefully Chingford.0 -
Which Tories don't have the whip going into the (probable) election now0
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Three different seats in stoke. I am well aware of the tory in sot south. Still you all know better than i do....HYUFD said:
The Tories already have an MP in Stoke and now have 15 Tory councillors there too, they have plenty of on the ground activists alreadyThe_Taxman said:
+1 The other interesting angle is where do the Tories get the foot soldiers to canvass target seats? For instance will Tories from Macclesfield or Congleton travel to Stoke onTrent North or Central to canvass an inner city area of deprivation which has seen a decade of deprivation under the Tories? I dont think so! Especially in the dark...Recidivist said:
Well they aren't marching at all are they. My point was that maybe Brexiters aren't as motivated as all that compared to leavers, so HYFUD may find that Brexit loses the Tories support in their normally strong areas without as much compensation in places that don't generally back them.Brom said:
The North certainly doesn't seem fussed about going on a People's Vote march that much is true.Recidivist said:
Will it be that symmetrical? I wonder. Apart from on BBC news broadcasts I haven't really picked up the feeling that people in the North are that fussed about Brexit. While my little home counties town supplied quite a contingent to the People's Vote march.HYUFD said:The Tories should be hoping to take all the strongest Leave voting seats and the LDs will equally be hoping to take the strongest Remain voting seats
0 -
Whatever happens re the Tory rebels they deserve the gratitude of all those who didn’t want a no deal .
3 -
I don’t think it necessarily likely either. All I am pointing out is that the current situation means it isn’t impossible.The_Taxman said:
Sorry for the misunderstanding. Time will tell but as i say footsoldiers are key in winning a seat. Where will the Tories get people to do the donkey work? The Tories are targetting 5 seats around SOT if one includes sot south (its tory but a hyper marginal so will be defence imo), north & central. Then newcastle under lyme plus seperatly crewe and nantwich. I dont see it paying off that is all i am saying.ydoethur said:
You may have meant it, but as far as I can see you didn’t say it.The_Taxman said:I was referring to the two different seats of SOT central and SOT North. SOT has three seats. SOT Central is basically innercity. SOT North is partly innercity plus small towns and villages. The reason i mentioned these two seats was in response to hyufd saying the tories could pick up strong leave seats where Labour had the seats.
Indeed, on paper SOTS should be less amenable to the Tories than SOTN.
So I don’t see your point matches the facts. It’s me and Ystradgynlais all over again.
By the way, will I make people jealous if I say I’m outside on a balcony in shirtsleeves, shorts and sandals?
As for canvassing do you think a Labour bother to canvass these seats using foot soldiers? If so, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying.0 -
“Were you up for JRM?”ydoethur said:
I want to see several major upsets in London.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
In particular I want to see incumbents come third in Uxbridge, Hackney, both Islington seats and hopefully Chingford.2 -
Would love to see it happen to Bozo and Corbyn. It would be perfect Karma after what they have both done to our democracy.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Who is going to attend the counts to lead a Jimmy 'Up Your Hacienda' Goldsmith chant of 'Out, Out, Out'?ydoethur said:
I want to see several major upsets in London.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
In particular I want to see incumbents come third in Uxbridge, Hackney, both Islington seats and hopefully Chingford.3 -
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPaynePulpstar said:Which Tories don't have the whip going into the (probable) election now
5m
The 10 independent Conservatives who haven’t been offered the whip:
- Guto Bebb
- Ken Clarke
- David Gauke
- Justine Greening
- Dominic Grieve
- Philip Hammond
- Oliver Letwin
- Anne Milton
- Antionette Sandbach
- Rory Stewart
Quite a few standing down anyway, but Spreadsheet Phil was pouring petrol on the bridge on R4 Today this morning,0 -
Even the abject Grayling is a poor second to Ernest Marples.Casino_Royale said:Off topic, Chris Grayling has to be the worst transport secretary of all time.
He’s completely buggered up the railway network and franchising system and the price we’ll all be likely to pay now is nationalisation.0 -
Feel like you might as well give Clarke the whip back just for old times sake, as he can no longer cause any more trouble. Some of the others are planning to stand against Tories elsewhere, so doesn't seem unreasonable.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Sebastian Payne @SebastianEPaynePulpstar said:Which Tories don't have the whip going into the (probable) election now
5m
The 10 independent Conservatives who haven’t been offered the whip:
- Guto Bebb
- Ken Clarke
- David Gauke
- Justine Greening
- Dominic Grieve
- Philip Hammond
- Oliver Letwin
- Anne Milton
- Antionette Sandbach
- Rory Stewart
Quite a few standing down anyway, but Spreadsheet Phil was pouring petrol on the bridge on R4 Today this morning,0 -
As long as Dominic Grieve isn't one.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Boris restoring the Tory whip to some MPs only, apparently.
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I would love to see it.IanB2 said:
“Were you up for JRM?”ydoethur said:
I want to see several major upsets in London.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
In particular I want to see incumbents come third in Uxbridge, Hackney, both Islington seats and hopefully Chingford.
For balance, that tit in Brighton Kemptown needs to go, as well.0 -
Why? Have they apologised for being naughty?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That man has done more for this country than you’ll ever do.MarqueeMark said:
As long as Dominic Grieve isn't one.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Boris restoring the Tory whip to some MPs only, apparently.
2 -
Indeed. And the Labour rebels. Whilst CUK and TIG have been a disaster in many ways, they did show that ultimately MPs can be effective parliamentarians without the support of the party whips and patronage. With increasingly authoritarian leaders being selected in both major parties that is an important precedent.nico67 said:Whatever happens re the Tory rebels they deserve the gratitude of all those who didn’t want a no deal .
1 -
That’s rather a personal question.IanB2 said:
“Were you up for JRM?”ydoethur said:
I want to see several major upsets in London.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Me too, we could be in for a highly entertaining night, with a number of 1997 style oustings.Gallowgate said:Buzzing for this election.
In particular I want to see incumbents come third in Uxbridge, Hackney, both Islington seats and hopefully Chingford.
Anyway, he’s an MP in Dorset.0 -
UNS has always been bad for individual seats but good enough for national seat totals.spudgfsh said:
This is going to be the election which kills off UNS. swing is not uniform but UNS does nothing to counter it. What is needed is something like UNS but provides a level of certainty of the results (and a band of likely seats not an absolute number).ydoethur said:
One thing to bear in mind is that this is an election where many old loyalties have been broken and therefore many old certainties are no longer certain. Let’s take B&R. One reason I was fairly confident of a Tory hold was that I knew Chris Davies’ vote in rural areas was solid. Given the geography of the seat I simply did not believe that the Liberal Democrats could overcome that solidity without the aid of Ystradgynlais, which knowing Ystradgynlais well I was certain they would not get. Tactical voting is a concept as alien to those voters as fiscal sanity is to Lloyd Russell-Moyle or sexual continence to Boris Johnson.Recidivist said:I visited Stoke in the eighties, when it wasn't especially prosperous and then again a few months ago. I can completely understand why people there are pissed off with Labour. I don't think I'd vote Tory there though.
And I was right, they couldn’t. But they didn’t need to. Ystradgynlais deserted Labour to the Liberal Democrats.
If that can happen there, there is the potential for a huge number of shocks and wins from third. That makes the election highly unpredictable even before we factor in the timing, the unprecedented weakness of key figures and the backdrop of national crisis.
Given that UNS is the [weighted] average of the individual swings then mathematically it's hard for it not to be reasonably accurate for the national seat totals. In order to break it a party would have to have an optimally distributed swing that was just good enough to win/avoid losing most of the seats (ie big where it needs to be big and small where it didn't).
A Brexit realignment makes that a bit more likely, but not much.0 -
As Groucho Marx once said "These are my principles. If you don't like them, well, ...... I have other ones too"TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Lewis Goodall
It might not be over yet amendment wise
Report stage still to come later tonight
Amendments permissible then
Am told MPs working on amendments on 17 year olds voting etc, anything speaker might find in order
And crucially it’s Bercow who selects, not Hoyle0 -
Good but no Ken Clarke means No rejoining the Tory party for me.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm less worried about Grieve or Letwin.... would prefer Phil back in.0
