Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters

123468

Comments

  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky Europe Editor has just said the leaders had left their meeting yesterday before the Letwin amendment came to light and said that one source has commented that one thing that will infuriate EU leaders is if they are being gamed by British politicians, and this feels like they are being gamed

    He said to watch this space as there might not be as much good will for an extension as there was 24 hours ago

    And for those who doubt my words play Sky news at approx 5.15 tonight

    As I said the EU wants us gone on 31st October so the new Parliament can start with a clean slate on 1st November.
    Indeed, those trying to drag this on for silly buggers will get short shrift.
    Anecdotal only but of 30 or so work colleagues roughly split evenly between remain and leave all effectively saying same thing - just get it done and let’s move on.

    Not scientific. Only anecdotal.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,598
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote tomorrow? Clearly the 7 terrorists/friends of Jeremy, the Speaker (except on a tie) and 3 deputies, what about O'Mara? Anyone else?

    If that is all 638 votes, a winning line of 320. Sounds a lot without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggested Dennis Skinner.

    He is a hard leaver, a pal of Jeremy [who was a hard leaver when he was on the backbenches] and hates the Tories. I think he might combust if he voted with the Tories but backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with the Tories on this, unlikely, but we seem to be so far through the looking glass now that anything is possible.

    I voted remain, but if he gets this deal through without the DUP nutters, I hope they get a massive backlash at the election. Spend all their time wanging on about the Union, but seem to be staring down the barrel of an Irish border poll if they carry on like this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it is an amazing time.

    The DUP think they are the only ones who care about the UK. I've yet to read the changes so dont know if their concerns are right, but its certainly true that since they always moan self righteously it's hard to tell when they have a point.
    The DUP are completely correct from their perspective. I'm astonished that the Scottish Conservative MPs aren't having canaries over the precedent it sets.
    Last time I checked Scotland had not had a terrorist war for decades and did not border another EU nation unlike Northern Ireland
    I've already pointed out to you

    (a) the shamefulness of denying the Scots a referendum just cos they don't start a terrorist campaign

    (b) that Scotland has a land border with another EU nation, ie England, and maritime ones with others. ,
    a) Scotland had a referendum in 2014 and voted No, given the SNP have refused to respect the results of the 2014 and 2016 referendums I have no problem in refusing them another.
    b) Scotlsnd is part of the UK, England is not a separate sovereign nation unlike the Republic of Ireland
    You were the one who called Scotland a nation. And the basis of the 2014 referendum was on the assumption of EU membership. It is the English (and Welsh) who are refusing to respect that. In the circs, you think it permissible to deny referenda? What will you do next, invade Gibraltar from Spain?
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    Remainers don't know when to give up... e.g. Jolyon's case.
    Oh what happened with Jolyon?
    Guessing he lost yet again
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,099
    Here's some more on the timeline for the European Parliament ratification from the president of the parliament, David Sassoli. He hopes it will be possible by 31 October. Nothing about waiting for the UK parliament (though he was obviously expecting a decision tomorrow). The timeline is a matter for the Conference of Presidents (of the parliament).

    Addressing a packed news conference at the council in Brussels, he said, “I welcome that a deal is now on the table that respects citizens’ rights and the single market. The European Parliament is now ready to look at the legal text in close detail. I also hope UK MPs will now accept the deal.”

    The MEP also said he hopes the European parliament will have enough time to vote and possibly debate on the deal within the “required timeframe.” Referring to the UK’s proposed EU exit on 31 October, he said, “I hope the timetable that has been set out will be respected.”

    On Friday, a spokesman for the Socialists in the parliament told this website that group leaders are due to meet on Monday to discuss the deal.

    “Obviously, we're sad the UK might leave but respect the decision taken in 2016. Our priority is to avoid a damaging no-deal scenario, protect the peace process and guarantee citizens' rights. A deal is the best way to achieve all this and at the same time reduce uncertainty.”

    “I welcome that a deal is now on the table that respects citizens’ rights and the single market. The European Parliament is now ready to look at the legal text in close detail" I also hope UK MPs will now accept the deal” European Parliament president David Sassoli

    He said, “The group is studying the details of the proposed deal to cross check that our red lines have been respected. The ball is now in the UK Parliament's camp. The European Parliament will exercise its prerogative in full.”

    He added, “The timeline is for the Conference of Presidents to decide and the next meeting is Monday evening (6pm).Let's see what the vote in the House of Commons brings tomorrow( Saturday 19th).”

    https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/articles/news/european-parliament-president-satisfied-new-brexit-deal-will-fully-protect-rights
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Floater said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    Remainers don't know when to give up... e.g. Jolyon's case.
    Oh what happened with Jolyon?
    Guessing he lost yet again
    I don't think there has been a ruling yet. Even the Speaker said it was nonsense.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,946
    Followed by a duet from Arlene and Nigel no doubt
  • Options

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense

    Things I'll be glad to see the back of:

    1) Jo Maugham and his endless crowdfunded court cases
    2) Emma Kennedy on Twitter
    3) Petitions
    4) Multi tweet threads
    5) Open letters
    6) Bernard Jenkin's gormless face on television
    7) Anyone caring what Mark Francois thinks about anything
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Because our deal would be closer to what the EU wants.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Anyone know about the rules on wrecking amendments? I would have thought this Letwin amendment might not pass the smell test.....
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited October 2019

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense

    LOL!

    So basically the Court said Jogon Jolyon! :D
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,099
    This is a rally calling for the rejection of the deal and an extension under the Benn Act, presumably?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,131
    Gabs2 said:

    The Remain alliance are following the Chinese Community Party approach. They know they can't win in a fair debate so are engaging in guerilla warfare. This is why people hate politicians.

    You must be VERY excited about finally Leaving! :wink:
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense

    LOL!

    So basically the Country said Jogon Jolyon! :D
    Different case, but that's the gist of it.
  • Options
    isam said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    I've been highly pissed off about LetwIn since around 2001 so join the club EU! :D
    These sort of know it all, smart arse shenanigans from MPs are the reason Leave won
    Mystic Meg voters just knew this was going to happen.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,832

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky Europe Editor has just said the leaders had left their meeting yesterday before the Letwin amendment came to light and said that one source has commented that one thing that will infuriate EU leaders is if they are being gamed by British politicians, and this feels like they are being gamed

    He said to watch this space as there might not be as much good will for an extension as there was 24 hours ago

    And for those who doubt my words play Sky news at approx 5.15 tonight

    As I said the EU wants us gone on 31st October so the new Parliament can start with a clean slate on 1st November.
    Indeed, those trying to drag this on for silly buggers will get short shrift.
    So we've gone from "No Deal is worse than a bad Deal" to "Any Deal will do". Tired people make bad decisions, tired people support bad decisions.

    There are plenty of reasons to allow proper scrutiny of Johnson's Deal and plenty of reasons to ask whether this is truly in the country's best interests but no one cares - all they want is this "over with".

    The Overwithers will have plenty of time for buyers' remorse in the months and years ahead.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.
    Labour voted against May's deal. Or were they being opportunistic then, too?
  • Options

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky Europe Editor has just said the leaders had left their meeting yesterday before the Letwin amendment came to light and said that one source has commented that one thing that will infuriate EU leaders is if they are being gamed by British politicians, and this feels like they are being gamed

    He said to watch this space as there might not be as much good will for an extension as there was 24 hours ago

    And for those who doubt my words play Sky news at approx 5.15 tonight

    As I said the EU wants us gone on 31st October so the new Parliament can start with a clean slate on 1st November.
    Indeed, those trying to drag this on for silly buggers will get short shrift.
    Anecdotal only but of 30 or so work colleagues roughly split evenly between remain and leave all effectively saying same thing - just get it done and let’s move on.

    Not scientific. Only anecdotal.
    Indeed I know people who were genuinely worried about No Deal and were happy to see MPs try and block No Deal, but dragging on this farce with no deal off the table doesn't seem popular.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Because our deal would be closer to what the EU wants.
    You won't have a deal, you will be rejecting it.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense

    LOL!

    So basically the Country said Jogon Jolyon! :D
    Different case, but that's the gist of it.
    Another court case?

    How many times is it that Boris has been taken to court?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,966
    edited October 2019
    Will he be burning his Republic of Ireland EU passport?
  • Options
    If MPs vote for letwin bill, it wont be any surprise if the EU are seriously pissed off. That 3 years, 2 different deals and still they wont make a final decision one way or another.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    Anyone know about the rules on wrecking amendments? I would have thought this Letwin amendment might not pass the smell test.....

    If the Letwin Amendment doesn’t pass the deal vote will crash and burn anyway .

    The majority of the Tory rebels didn’t come this far ,lose the whip to allow even the remotest chance of a no deal .

  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense

    LOL!

    So basically the Country said Jogon Jolyon! :D
    Different case, but that's the gist of it.
    Another court case?

    How many times is it that Boris has been taken to court?
    He's probably won more court cases than votes in Parliament.
  • Options
    Bercow possibly wishing he'd resigned now, looks very close, he is guaranteed to win the vote but lose the public if its a tie whichever way he decides.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    https://twitter.com/PA/status/1185232780684419072?s=19

    Feel bad for the fools that crowdfunded this nonsense

    LOL!

    So basically the Country said Jogon Jolyon! :D
    Different case, but that's the gist of it.
    Another court case?

    How many times is it that Boris has been taken to court?
    My mistake, the court of Session case referenced in that tweet was Jolyon's. There was also one in the Court of Appeal which was also thrown out.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    nico67 said:

    Anyone know about the rules on wrecking amendments? I would have thought this Letwin amendment might not pass the smell test.....

    If the Letwin Amendment doesn’t pass the deal vote will crash and burn anyway .

    The majority of the Tory rebels didn’t come this far ,lose the whip to allow even the remotest chance of a no deal .

    Projections say that there is already a majority for it. hardly crashing and burning.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    If MPs vote for letwin bill, it wont be any surprise if the EU are seriously pissed off. That 3 years, 2 different deals and still they wont make a final decision one way or another.

    Government just need to attach their own amendment, replicating Letwin, to MV4.

    There would then be no reason for Bercow to choose Letwin.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,715
    noneoftheabove: " Bercow possibly wishing he'd resigned now, looks very close, he is guaranteed to win the vote but lose the public if its a tie whichever way he decides."

    He has no decision to make - he must vote against if it is a tie.
  • Options

    Bercow possibly wishing he'd resigned now, looks very close, he is guaranteed to win the vote but lose the public if its a tie whichever way he decides.

    In a tie he'll follow tradition strictly.

    Since that also matches how he'd want to vote anyway but he can say it is sticking to Speaker Dennison's Rule.
  • Options
    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040
    Still to close to call but I think the momentum is with the deal passing tomorrow.

    It's disappointing as staying in the EU is the obvious choice of the sane but that's way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

    Those Labour MPs who vote for the deal are fools. Not only will it mean that Boris Johnson's dreadful deal passes but it also ensures a Tory victory (even landslide) at the subsequent election. Are Onn and co that thick? F*ckwits!
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    noneoftheabove: " Bercow possibly wishing he'd resigned now, looks very close, he is guaranteed to win the vote but lose the public if its a tie whichever way he decides."

    He has no decision to make - he must vote against if it is a tie.

    Close. He should vote against if it is a tie.

    Bercow has been happy to go against tradition where it suits him. He has no need to here since on a free vote he'd vote against and tradition says he votes against.
  • Options
    ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Will he be burning his Republic of Ireland EU passport?
    There a bus. It’s got three hundred and fifty million lies printed down the side of it. The DUP are now under the bus. The bus is now being driven by the IRA. A speech bubble comes out from under the bus. Is this what you call taking back control, Cummings?

    First rule of surrendering Boris, don’t surrender to the IRA.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's a short step from Ian Paisley to King Lear.
  • Options
    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?
  • Options
    ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    murali_s said:

    Still to close to call but I think the momentum is with the deal passing tomorrow.

    It's disappointing as staying in the EU is the obvious choice of the sane but that's way the cookie crumbles sometimes.

    Those Labour MPs who vote for the deal are fools. Not only will it mean that Boris Johnson's dreadful deal passes but it also ensures a Tory victory (even landslide) at the subsequent election. Are Onn and co that thick? F*ckwits!

    All Labour need to do is get a sane Leader before a GE. Then all bets off.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Does he know the meeting isn't being held in Sri Lanka?
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Rumblings on Twitter that the EU are highly pissed off about letwins amendment

    Remainers don't know when to give up... e.g. Jolyon's case.
    Oh what happened with Jolyon?
    He lost
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.

    I’d be surprised if the May deal would still be on offer. From the EU perspective the Johnson one is much better.

  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Because our deal would be closer to what the EU wants.
    You won't have a deal, you will be rejecting it.
    All hypothetical, but it would have been put to the voters. And I suspect that it would have stood a better chance of success than Bozo's deal in a referendum.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    It removes the meaningful vote aspect meaning the deal is not approved and is asking the EU to extend because 'ummmmmmmm dunno, for a laugh?'
  • Options
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.
    Labour voted against May's deal. Or were they being opportunistic then, too?
    Yes politicians played politics shocker. None more than our PM who sabotaged a very similar but slightly better deal 12 months ago purely so he could eject his leader and take over control.
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    noneoftheabove: " Bercow possibly wishing he'd resigned now, looks very close, he is guaranteed to win the vote but lose the public if its a tie whichever way he decides."

    He has no decision to make - he must vote against if it is a tie.

    Thats not how it will be portrayed in the media, social media or by our political leaders.
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    GIN1138 said:

    If MPs vote for letwin bill, it wont be any surprise if the EU are seriously pissed off. That 3 years, 2 different deals and still they wont make a final decision one way or another.

    Government just need to attach their own amendment, replicating Letwin, to MV4.

    There would then be no reason for Bercow to choose Letwin.
    An amendment to the MV4 is not legally binding . Normally MPs would accept assurances that a government would honour that amendment but given the behaviour of Johnson over the last few months why on earth would they trust him.

    The Benn Act is watertight that’s why MPs don’t want to let that go till the WAIB is voted through and has received Royal Assent.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,946
    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If MPs vote for letwin bill, it wont be any surprise if the EU are seriously pissed off. That 3 years, 2 different deals and still they wont make a final decision one way or another.

    Government just need to attach their own amendment, replicating Letwin, to MV4.

    There would then be no reason for Bercow to choose Letwin.
    An amendment to the MV4 is not legally binding . Normally MPs would accept assurances that a government would honour that amendment but given the behaviour of Johnson over the last few months why on earth would they trust him.
    An amendment to a bill that is subsequently made into a law is not legally binding?
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,901
    edited October 2019
    The deal passing is odds on now, after I closed out for a £20 loss at 6/5 thanks to the Letwin nonsense!
  • Options
    ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Because our deal would be closer to what the EU wants.
    You won't have a deal, you will be rejecting it.
    All hypothetical, but it would have been put to the voters. And I suspect that it would have stood a better chance of success than Bozo's deal in a referendum.
    Don’t be daft thommo Labour will get a deal in ten seconds. They will ask EU for all U.K. in CU and the truth is EU will junk Boris Deal in closest bin and agree with Labour on the spot.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    edited October 2019
    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do know there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,694
    edited October 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Scott_P said:
    That is just fundamentally not true. The UK can sign FTAs and negotiate tariff rates under the Boris deal, which was impossible under the backstop. An independent trade policy is a major shift, it is not fiddling at the edges.

    Remainers are having to jump from one ridiculous argument to another at the moment.
    Do you think anyone cares less whether UK imports of Peruvian guano come with a 2% tariff while the EU one is 3%. Is it really worth imposing barriers to trade with the EU as well as impose unworkable solutions for Northern Ireland just for that freedom?

    We need some perspective.
  • Options
    ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Brexiteers back in love with rule of law the founding block of democracy.

    Love a happy ending.
  • Options
    Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Zephyr said:

    Will he be burning his Republic of Ireland EU passport?
    There a bus. It’s got three hundred and fifty million lies printed down the side of it. The DUP are now under the bus. The bus is now being driven by the IRA. A speech bubble comes out from under the bus. Is this what you call taking back control, Cummings?

    First rule of surrendering Boris, don’t surrender to the IRA.
    If it was surrendering to the IRA, why would David Trimble, chief unionist in the Good Friday Agreemenr support it, after opposing May's deal?
  • Options
    PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.
    Labour voted against May's deal. Or were they being opportunistic then, too?
    Yes politicians played politics shocker. None more than our PM who sabotaged a very similar but slightly better deal 12 months ago purely so he could eject his leader and take over control.
    They didn't sabotage it though, they just made the majority it lost by far worse.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.

    Why is it posturing? It’s a huge agreement, there may be issues in the detail that could cause trouble further down the line. I genuinely don’t see the problem. It’s done. We’re leaving.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Zephyr said:

    Brexiteers back in love with rule of law the founding block of democracy.

    Love a happy ending.
    No I just enjoy that utter arsehole Maugham getting his butt kicked
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    HYUFD said:

    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
    But they'll be voting for the Boris Deal before 31st October. Meantime, they can feel good about themselves. Maybe have a hot soaky bath. With candles and that.



  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,028
    HYUFD said:

    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
    Is that before or after Boris Johnson goes to prison for refusing to make the extension request?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.

    Why is it posturing? It’s a huge agreement, there may be issues in the detail that could cause trouble further down the line. I genuinely don’t see the problem. It’s done. We’re leaving.
    Are we? These wrecking amendments and court cases are all about stopping Brexit.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,946
    edited October 2019
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    How many are not going to vote without the DUP.

    Kelvin Hopkins is a hard leaver but a pal of Jeremy, he may well abstain
    That's why I suggestedbut backs leaving.
    I'd laugh my arse off if Skinner voted with ike this. Idiots.
    With Farage now a remain supporting defender of the Benn Act it oint.
    The DUP are completely correct from their it sets.
    Last time I checked Scotland had not had a nd
    I've already pointed out to s. ,
    a) Scotland had a referendum in 2014 and voted No, given the SNP
    You were the one who called Scotland a nation. And the basis of the 2014 referendum was on the assumption of EU membership. It is the English (and Welsh) who are refusing to respect that. In the circs, you think it permissible to deny referenda? What will you do next, invade Gibraltar from Spain?
    Scotland is a country but not a sovereign country, it is only that as part of the UK.

    In the unlikely event Spain wants to follow the precedent set by Argentina in 1982 and invade Gibraltar that is up to Spain, it will be met with the same response.

    The fact Boris and Westminster would refuse indyref2 as Spain has refused a Catalan referendum on independence is a separate matter and I am not yet suggesting following the precedent set by Spain arresting Catalan leaders and arresting Sturgeon and SNP leaders
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If MPs vote for letwin bill, it wont be any surprise if the EU are seriously pissed off. That 3 years, 2 different deals and still they wont make a final decision one way or another.

    Government just need to attach their own amendment, replicating Letwin, to MV4.

    There would then be no reason for Bercow to choose Letwin.
    An amendment to the MV4 is not legally binding . Normally MPs would accept assurances that a government would honour that amendment but given the behaviour of Johnson over the last few months why on earth would they trust him.
    An amendment to a bill that is subsequently made into a law is not legally binding?
    A motion never becomes an Act of Law by itself .This motion won’t be receiving Royal Assent .

    The bill is the WAIB , there’s no point adding an amendment at that stage as it’s a waste of time .

    What’s the point of asking for an extension in a Bill where you need the extension before that .
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If MPs vote for letwin bill, it wont be any surprise if the EU are seriously pissed off. That 3 years, 2 different deals and still they wont make a final decision one way or another.

    Government just need to attach their own amendment, replicating Letwin, to MV4.

    There would then be no reason for Bercow to choose Letwin.
    An amendment to the MV4 is not legally binding . Normally MPs would accept assurances that a government would honour that amendment but given the behaviour of Johnson over the last few months why on earth would they trust him.
    An amendment to a bill that is subsequently made into a law is not legally binding?
    A motion never becomes an Act of Law by itself .This motion won’t be receiving Royal Assent .

    The bill is the WAIB , there’s no point adding an amendment at that stage as it’s a waste of time .

    What’s the point of asking for an extension in a Bill where you need the extension before that .
    So Letwin's amendment is also not legally binding? Sounds good.
  • Options
    ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,946

    HYUFD said:

    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
    Is that before or after Boris Johnson goes to prison for refusing to make the extension request?
    No need if Macron vetoes further extension anyway making the Benn and Letwin Acts redundant
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Electionmaps updated to 313-296, with 25 unknown (note: the count is after tellers, so 318 needed)

    Caveat: most of the unknowns will vote against.
  • Options
    PaulM said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.
    Labour voted against May's deal. Or were they being opportunistic then, too?
    Yes politicians played politics shocker. None more than our PM who sabotaged a very similar but slightly better deal 12 months ago purely so he could eject his leader and take over control.
    They didn't sabotage it though, they just made the majority it lost by far worse.
    My understanding of the English language is that calling a deal negotiated by your own party PM as pathetic, feeble, a humiliation and akin to wearing a suicide vest to topple that PM, then rehash 95% of that same deal as he couldnt come up with a better solution is sabotage.

    Of course I am not fluent in no deal leavish so there may be issues in translation.
  • Options
    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    I ask myself why would the EU National Leaders grant the 9 to 12 month extension that would be required for a ref, that can quite likely produce a result of Boris deal, just because a load of Brit MPs can not make decision and want to pass the buck to said EU leaders.

    I can see the 27 saying 2 can play at that game, here have a 2 week extension, go and do your job.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Not for long, Macron vetoes further extension next week if the Deal is not passed and the Commons has not voted for EUref2 or a GE
    Is that before or after Boris Johnson goes to prison for refusing to make the extension request?
    Do you want Boris to be a martyr for his cause then
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095

    PaulM said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    If Boris gets his Deal through it will be with Labour votes, so Remainers will keep voting LD who will campaign on a rejoin platform while Boris will have stopped most of his leakage to the Brexit Party having delivered Brexit
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Of course the EU would give a SM & CU deal, which in Labour eyes is better. They would also still give Mays deal which is better. They gave us a menu 2 years ago, none of the dishes are out of stock even if all have become a bit stale and less palatable than when we entered the establishment.
    Labour voted against May's deal. Or were they being opportunistic then, too?
    Yes politicians played politics shocker. None more than our PM who sabotaged a very similar but slightly better deal 12 months ago purely so he could eject his leader and take over control.
    They didn't sabotage it though, they just made the majority it lost by far worse.
    My understanding of the English language is that calling a deal negotiated by your own party PM as pathetic, feeble, a humiliation and akin to wearing a suicide vest to topple that PM, then rehash 95% of that same deal as he couldnt come up with a better solution is sabotage.

    Of course I am not fluent in no deal leavish so there may be issues in translation.
    But it was the 5% that made the deal unacceptable. Like the 19 prawns in the curry that were fine. Just a shame that the 20th gave you the terminal shits.....
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,099
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    If MPs vote for letwin bill, it wont be any surprise if the EU are seriously pissed off. That 3 years, 2 different deals and still they wont make a final decision one way or another.

    Government just need to attach their own amendment, replicating Letwin, to MV4.

    There would then be no reason for Bercow to choose Letwin.
    An amendment to the MV4 is not legally binding . Normally MPs would accept assurances that a government would honour that amendment but given the behaviour of Johnson over the last few months why on earth would they trust him.
    An amendment to a bill that is subsequently made into a law is not legally binding?
    A motion never becomes an Act of Law by itself .This motion won’t be receiving Royal Assent .

    The bill is the WAIB , there’s no point adding an amendment at that stage as it’s a waste of time .

    What’s the point of asking for an extension in a Bill where you need the extension before that .
    So Letwin's amendment is also not legally binding? Sounds good.
    Effectively, it's just a way of evading the issue. It needs to be evaded only until 11pm tomorrow night for the Benn Act to be activated.
  • Options
    ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    Brexiteers back in love with rule of law the founding block of democracy.

    Love a happy ending.
    No I just enjoy that utter arsehole Maugham getting his butt kicked
    So leavers still don’t believe in rule of law then?
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited October 2019
    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1185240240962842624?s=19

    The govt need to come up with something to satisfy what Letwin thinks his amendment does and get him to withdraw
  • Options
    Andrew said:

    Electionmaps updated to 313-296, with 25 unknown (note: the count is after tellers, so 318 needed)

    Caveat: most of the unknowns will vote against.

    So only 5 out of 25 needed
  • Options
    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    edited October 2019
    I think some in here are getting confused as to what a motion is v what a Bill is .

    The WAIB (withdrawal and implementation bill)is what’s needed to satisfy the provisions of Article 50.

    Tomorrow’s vote is a motion . It’s simply a device to allow MPs to say yes or no to a proposition .

    The motion by itself does not constitute law , only a Bill does that as it moves through its stages . It then receives Royal Assent turning it into an Act of Parliament.
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    There is no point attacking Johnson. He has played his hand superbly. The 70% of young people who have been betrayed should put the blame squarely where it lies. On the shoulders of Jeremy Corbyn.
    Actually, I do not hold John McDonnell, whose name is always uttered under the same breath with Corbyn, responsible. He has been very sensible and has pursued well argued economic policies. Sadly all this has been in vain with the posho public school educated Trots who control the Labour Party now - until the sure humiliation which awaits us at the next election.
    I do care who is the next leader: Emily, Yvette or even John but we have wasted 4 years now with a leader with little intellectual grasp.
  • Options
    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    Brexiteers back in love with rule of law the founding block of democracy.

    Love a happy ending.
    No I just enjoy that utter arsehole Maugham getting his butt kicked
    So leavers still don’t believe in rule of law then?
    You'll have to ask them, I am here for the Maugham kicking
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793
    edited October 2019
    RobD said:
    Well if Panelbase have Con at 36% imagine what Opinium and YouGov will say tomorrow? :D
  • Options

    PaulM said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    The vote tomorrow is a watershed moment. If Johnson wins tomorrow, then he romps home in a GE. And, HYUFD will tell you the exact number of MPs the Tories will have. The SNP will be other winner.

    If the deal passes, then the GE becomes very unpredictable. Johnson won't get a thank you card from the electorate.
    Alternatively it will give people the ability to vote for the Brexit Party without risking Brexit not happening.
    Only 17% of voters now back No Deal so Boris can live with that given the Remain/Rejoin vote will be split between the LDs and Labour

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1185150452758802433?s=20
    Where is the option to leave with a better (Labour) deal?
    Labour aren't going to get a better deal, since they've confirmed they would campaign against their own deal why would the EU engage in negotiations with them?
    Labour voted against May's deal. Or were they being opportunistic then, too?
    Yes politicians played politics shocker. None more than our PM who sabotaged a very similar but slightly better deal 12 months ago purely so he could eject his leader and take over control.
    They didn't sabotage it though, they just made the majority it lost by far worse.
    My understanding of the English language is that calling a deal negotiated by your own party PM as pathetic, feeble, a humiliation and akin to wearing a suicide vest to topple that PM, then rehash 95% of that same deal as he couldnt come up with a better solution is sabotage.

    Of course I am not fluent in no deal leavish so there may be issues in translation.
    But it was the 5% that made the deal unacceptable. Like the 19 prawns in the curry that were fine. Just a shame that the 20th gave you the terminal shits.....
    No. It was that Johnson wanted to play being in charge. Not once until the last week has he come out for a border in the Irish sea. Why didnt he recommend to May that he would support this version of the deal 12 months ago? There is only one answer. His desire to see May fail and him take over.
  • Options
    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    and now 301-296 with 37 unknown. Prolly a better reflection.
    Andrew said:

    Electionmaps updated to 313-296, with 25 unknown (note: the count is after tellers, so 318 needed)

    Caveat: most of the unknowns will vote against.

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:
    Well if Panelbase have Con at 36% imagine what Opinium and YouGov will say tomorrow? :D
    Smelling salts on standby.
  • Options
    ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Gabs2 said:

    Zephyr said:

    Will he be burning his Republic of Ireland EU passport?
    There a bus. It’s got three hundred and fifty million lies printed down the side of it. The DUP are now under the bus. The bus is now being driven by the IRA. A speech bubble comes out from under the bus. Is this what you call taking back control, Cummings?

    First rule of surrendering Boris, don’t surrender to the IRA.
    If it was surrendering to the IRA, why would David Trimble, chief unionist in the Good Friday Agreemenr support it, after opposing May's deal?
    You are going to argue this point are you? 🤗

    Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of

    Can you pause your Roman salute to the negotiating triumph, and explain why I am factually wrong to say that
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Zephyr said:

    nico67 said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Leavers don’t care about future problems , if they did they wouldn’t have voted to Leave.

    And who would trust the ERG , they can just pull support once we get to the WAIB .

    I can understand why some Labour MPs might vote yes but if they’re going to do that they should not agree until no deal is properly off the table .
    You do kno there are less than a 100 ERG MPs don't you? If No Deal is so fucking Earth-rendingly terrible - then pass the Boris Deal. Again and again, if needs be.
    I can’t understand why a single Labour MP would vote for a worse deal than the last one put before them that’s also worse than the next one that’s going to be put before them.

    I think the Brexiteers are getting embarrassingly confused by what a Labour MP in a leave constituency is and the pressure that comes from that. When you say Labour MP in leave constituency, is the constituency Labour party members leave or very Pro remain 😊
    Very few Leave voters voted Labour at the last GE, even in Labour Leave seats.
  • Options
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.

    Why is it posturing? It’s a huge agreement, there may be issues in the detail that could cause trouble further down the line. I genuinely don’t see the problem. It’s done. We’re leaving.
    Are we? These wrecking amendments and court cases are all about stopping Brexit.

    Some of the court cases are. The HoL one clearly wasn’t. I don’t think the Letwin amendment is about anything more than stopping an accidental - or ERG-engineered - No Deal. The one thing that would prevent the Tories winning the next GE is the ERG doing that.

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,158
    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
    To ensure that the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement becomes law and gets Royal Assent.

    Why? Because the PM is not trusted and nor are those MPs who prefer a No Deal exit. The concern is that the actual Bill might not be passed and Britain crashes out anyway regardless of the existence of the WA.

    This is what happens when the leader behaves in a way which does not engender trust. Others will try to tie his hands. Plus those who are not in the ERG do not trust the ERG at all.
  • Options
    DruttDrutt Posts: 1,093

    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    Brexiteers back in love with rule of law the founding block of democracy.

    Love a happy ending.
    No I just enjoy that utter arsehole Maugham getting his butt kicked
    So leavers still don’t believe in rule of law then?
    You'll have to ask them, I am here for the Maugham kicking
    Had it not been for the wholly extraordinary SC decision, the 'Mr Maugham is a vexatious litigant' application might have been going in this week.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Anybody who supports the deal without understanding what it entails is an idiot, if you have an opinion it should be based on taking the trouble to compare our current deal, Mays deal and this one, if you haven’t then I suggest you at least preface your posts by admitting that ‘whilst I haven’t read the detail of the deal I don’t give a shit what it is as long as we leave’ before then opining.
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Does anyone think Boris would actually get a sustained boost from agreeing a Deal?

    What is he once Brexit is stripped away? How many voters are going to use him to get their way, then get rid once the deed is complete?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    And what will this extra time be used for? More posturing I assume, since the EU are probably not going to change another word in any of the texts.
    To ensure that the Bill implementing the Withdrawal Agreement becomes law and gets Royal Assent.

    Why? Because the PM is not trusted and nor are those MPs who prefer a No Deal exit. The concern is that the actual Bill might not be passed and Britain crashes out anyway regardless of the existence of the WA.

    This is what happens when the leader behaves in a way which does not engender trust. Others will try to tie his hands. Plus those who are not in the ERG do not trust the ERG at all.
    There's a perfectly good mechanism for that, a VONC. Why extend when it isn't needed.
  • Options
    surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    Zephyr said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Zephyr said:

    Will he be burning his Republic of Ireland EU passport?
    There a bus. It’s got three hundred and fifty million lies printed down the side of it. The DUP are now under the bus. The bus is now being driven by the IRA. A speech bubble comes out from under the bus. Is this what you call taking back control, Cummings?

    First rule of surrendering Boris, don’t surrender to the IRA.
    If it was surrendering to the IRA, why would David Trimble, chief unionist in the Good Friday Agreemenr support it, after opposing May's deal?
    You are going to argue this point are you? 🤗

    Take a backstop we can’t get out of. Turn it into a backstop we need the IRA’s permission to get out of

    Can you pause your Roman salute to the negotiating triumph, and explain why I am factually wrong to say that
    Who says the Backstop is gone ? It is now built in the NI/RoI customs arrangement. Only it applies to NI only. So an insurance policy is no longer needed.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    edited October 2019
    nichomar said:

    The Letwin amendment just gives time for scrutiny of the bill, doesn’t it? Surely that’s a good thing. It’s clear we’re leaving, but isn’t it best to do it in a way that does not cause problems further down the line?

    Anybody who supports the deal without understanding what it entails is an idiot, if you have an opinion it should be based on taking the trouble to compare our current deal, Mays deal and this one, if you haven’t then I suggest you at least preface your posts by admitting that ‘whilst I haven’t read the detail of the deal I don’t give a shit what it is as long as we leave’ before then opining.
    So that rules out most MPs then. :D
This discussion has been closed.