politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail
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Like it. Timing is superb.rottenborough said:
Blimey. If she can pull a few put downs on Trump like that we may be in business.williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
I'm still deeply concerned as someone desperately wants a Dem win.0 -
She’s not going to get Trump voters and is not going to try. It’s the Obama voters who didn’t bother last time she’s after.HYUFD said:
Funny but that response will mainly go down well with coastal liberals who voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 anyway.williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
I fail to see what Trump voters in the Midwestern and Southern swing states Warren us going to win over? Biden might though.0 -
Nick there you are. You nailed it last time on numbers of Lab MPs likely to vote with govt on the WA. Assuming it comes back more or less as is, what would you think Lab numbers-wise now?NickPalmer said:
Yes, that's exactly what I think.148grss said:Based on current aggregate of polls by Britain elects, using Flavibles new system, under a Remain pact including Labour, Lab / LDs could form a government. Without Labour, (just LDs, Greens and Nats), Tories don't get a majority, but massively ahead of Labour.
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/gb/32.1/23.9/20.6/13.4/3.7/4/0.3/1
http://britainelects.com/
This suggests tactical voting is going to be super important, and that any result based on national polls is going to be really difficult to predict. I can't find any constituency level polling atm, so maybe with some of that it would look different, but who knows.
On topic, I think Boris has played a blinder in purely political terms, by convincing us all including the ever-sceptical DUP that he was Mr No Deal, scaring us shitless with the prospect, and then offering a deal. A super-Remainer colleague who detests Boris says "I can't believe that I'm actually hoping he gets his deal to leave the EU through, but he's somehow persuaded me that it's the least bad alternative".
The question is whether he's resisted the temptation to say different things to different people. We'll know in a few days, so no need to speculate.0 -
The evident enfeeblement of our politics and diplomacy is BECAUSE of our European Union membership. We haven't had to rely on ourselves, when talking about trade or frontiers or customs, for a long time. The muscle memory is almost gone, the sinews have atrophied. The same would apply to France or Germany if they were in a similar position.ozymandias said:
Do I have buyers remorse? To an extent, yes. I guess i had too much faith in our politicians and systems to be able to sort this kind of thing out. Guess the UK has lost most of what made it such an important diplomatic and effective player over the last couple of centuries. We're just "standard" now. So my worry about EU democracy, or the lack of it, actually, falls away.TOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
To close: If Labour can be returned by its decent rational members to its decent centre-left roots with a decent, economically literate Leader, my quid pro quo would be to vote Remain, with an active and vigourous approach to reform the EU. Make ourselves as influential and important to the EU as France or Germany. Mold it into what we want.
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate)
So we face a steep learning curve. It will be good for us, in the end.0 -
ozymandias said:
Do I have buyers remorse? To an extent, yes. I guess i had too much faith in our politicians and systems to be able to sort this kind of thing out. Guess the UK has lost most of what made it such an important diplomatic and effective player over the last couple of centuries. We're just "standard" now. So my worry about EU democracy, or the lack of it, actually, falls away.TOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
To close: If Labour can be returned by its decent rational members to its decent centre-left roots with a decent, economically literate Leader, my quid pro quo would be to vote Remain, with an active and vigourous approach to reform the EU. Make ourselves as influential and important to the EU as France or Germany. Mold it into what we want.
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate) 0 -
By "we" do you mean Cornwall?Byronic said:
The evident enfeeblement of our politics and diplomacy is BECAUSE of our European Union membership. We haven't had to rely on ourselves, when talking about trade or frontiers or customs, for a long time. The muscle memory is almost gone, the sinews have atrophied. The same would apply to France or Germany if they were in a similar position.ozymandias said:
Do I have buyers remorse? To an extent, yes. I guess i had too much faith in our politicians and systems to be able to sort this kind of thing out. Guess the UK has lost most of what made it such an important diplomatic and effective player over the last couple of centuries. We're just "standard" now. So my worry about EU democracy, or the lack of it, actually, falls away.TOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
To close: If Labour can be returned by its decent rational members to its decent centre-left roots with a decent, economically literate Leader, my quid pro quo would be to vote Remain, with an active and vigourous approach to reform the EU. Make ourselves as influential and important to the EU as France or Germany. Mold it into what we want.
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate)
So we face a steep learning curve. It will be good for us, in the end.0 -
The male modelling community. We're being asked to do Blue Steel, and we've almost forgotten.TOPPING said:
By "we" do you mean Cornwall?Byronic said:
The evident enfeeblement of our politics and diplomacy is BECAUSE of our European Union membership. We haven't had to rely on ourselves, when talking about trade or frontiers or customs, for a long time. The muscle memory is almost gone, the sinews have atrophied. The same would apply to France or Germany if they were in a similar position.ozymandias said:
Do I have buyers remorse? To an extent, yes. I guess i had too much faith in our politicians and systems to be able to sort this kind of thing out. Guess the UK has lost most of what made it such an important diplomatic and effective player over the last couple of centuries. We're just "standard" now. So my worry about EU democracy, or the lack of it, actually, falls away.TOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
To close: If Labour can be returned by its decent rational members to its decent centre-left roots with a decent, economically literate Leader, my quid pro quo would be to vote Remain, with an active and vigourous approach to reform the EU. Make ourselves as influential and important to the EU as France or Germany. Mold it into what we want.
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate)
So we face a steep learning curve. It will be good for us, in the end.0 -
I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
I wonder whether we are at last getting to the stage where sufficient leavers (in number and profile (eg Peter Oborne)) that admit that they have made a mistake will provide the escape hatch from this dreadful state of affairs.0 -
Most of them black and most of whom will have no incentive to turn out for another upper middle class white womanDougSeal said:
She’s not going to get Trump voters and is not going to try. It’s the Obama voters who didn’t bother last time she’s after.HYUFD said:
Funny but that response will mainly go down well with coastal liberals who voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 anyway.williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
I fail to see what Trump voters in the Midwestern and Southern swing states Warren us going to win over? Biden might though.0 -
The best thing about a deal were it to happen would be wasting Cherry and Maughams time on their coup in the courts jaunt
Although any deal must get past the Gina Miller veto of course1 -
I thought that was like riding a bike.Byronic said:
The male modelling community. We're being asked to do Blue Steel, and we've almost forgotten.TOPPING said:
By "we" do you mean Cornwall?Byronic said:
The evident enfeeblement of our politics and diplomacy is BECAUSE of our European Union membership. We haven't had to rely on ourselves, when talking about trade or frontiers or customs, for a long time. The muscle memory is almost gone, the sinews have atrophied. The same would apply to France or Germany if they were in a similar position.ozymandias said:
Do I have buyers remorse? To an extent, yes. I guess i had too much faith in our politicians and systems to be able to sort this kind of thing out. Guess the UK has lost most of what made it such an important diplomatic and effective player over the last couple of centuries. We're just "standard" now. So my worry about EU democracy, or the lack of it, actually, falls away.TOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
To close: If Labour can be returned by its decent rational members to its decent centre-left roots with a decent, economically literate Leader, my quid pro quo would be to vote Remain, with an active and vigourous approach to reform the EU. Make ourselves as influential and important to the EU as France or Germany. Mold it into what we want.
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate)
So we face a steep learning curve. It will be good for us, in the end.0 -
She's miles better than Hillary, and she doesn't have the dodgy baggage. She's also extremely well organised - I don't think she'll make the arrogant blunders that Hillary made in her campaign.rottenborough said:0 -
I liked the twinkle at the end. She knew she had been a bit cruel but sort of reached out to the man at the end. I suspect he might even be a convert.Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
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The fiasco of post-referendum negotiations is all directly attributable to the conduct of the Leave campaign. Leavers professing astonishment and dismay at how it has turned out no doubt are astonished when Santa Claus pulls off his beard.2
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Mold in that spelling is perhaps not what you were desiring.....ozymandias said:
Do I have buyers remorse? To an extent, yes. I guess i had too much faith in our politicians and systems to be able to sort this kind of thing out. Guess the UK has lost most of what made it such an important diplomatic and effective player over the last couple of centuries. We're just "standard" now. So my worry about EU democracy, or the lack of it, actually, falls away.TOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
To close: If Labour can be returned by its decent rational members to its decent centre-left roots with a decent, economically literate Leader, my quid pro quo would be to vote Remain, with an active and vigourous approach to reform the EU. Make ourselves as influential and important to the EU as France or Germany. Mold it into what we want.
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate)
0 -
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
Corbyn could have beaten Osborne after 9 years of austerity with no pro Brexit coalition behind the Tories to give a chance of a 4th term and with Farage and UKIP still up in the pollsTOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.0 -
I guess even Blenheim looked nouveau when it was first built.Roger said:
It would be a bit of a squeeze getting this into Upper Parliament StTabman said:
"You can take the girl out of Scouserville ... "Roger said:
That's funny! Coleen lives in Prestbury. Couldn't be much further removed from Merseyside.Foxy said:
Quite possibly. Merseyside was pretty solidly Remain.TOPPING said:Speaking of which what are the bets Becky vs Coleen - which is the leaver and which is the remainer?
I would put Coleen as the remainer and Vardy as the leaver.
Quite apart from the #Wagathachristie element, the fight is an interesting insight into British class structure. The original generation of 2006 Wags regard Rebekah Vardy as a lower class upstart wannabee. That is the root of what has transpired.
https://sporteology.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Wayne-Rooney-house.jpg
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No he wouldn't have.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could have beaten Osborne after 9 years of austerity with no pro Brexit coalition behind the Tories to give a chance of a 4th term and with Farage and UKIP still up in the pollsTOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.0 -
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
Incidentally, have we commented on the other headline at the top of the Mail front page? A bit of a turnaround for the Mail, albeit a very welcome if belated one.1
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Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.0 -
Peter Oborne has recently questioned the wisdom of the Leave vote in very measured terms. He has not as far as I know said that the 2016 vote should be overturned.Stocky said:I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
I wonder whether we are at last getting to the stage where sufficient leavers (in number and profile (eg Peter Oborne)) that admit that they have made a mistake will provide the escape hatch from this dreadful state of affairs.0 -
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.0 -
He is almost as bad as you and that is saying somethingNigel_Foremain said:I have no time at all for the SNP and its small minded nationalist agenda, but Gove's hypocrisy as a Brexiteer is pretty breath taking:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/michael-gove-accuses-snp-of-undermining-brexit-planning-to-smash-up-uk/ar-AAIAHzz?ocid=spartanntp0 -
The old " Hello sunshine do you know who I am "TOPPING said:
I was once with a friend who, in a "heated" (ie friendly) discussion, said "I outrank you" to the person he was arguing with.Foxy said:
Exactly!surbiton19 said:Foxy said:
Quite possibly. Merseyside was pretty solidly Remain.TOPPING said:Speaking of which what are the bets Becky vs Coleen - which is the leaver and which is the remainer?
I would put Coleen as the remainer and Vardy as the leaver.
Quite apart from the #Wagathachristie element, the fight is an interesting insight into British class structure. The original generation of 2006 Wags regard Rebekah Vardy as a lower class upstart wannabee. That is the root of what has transpired.
Even lower class than the others ?
One of the delights of the intricacies of the British class system is the awareness of status levels immediately adjacent.
The difference in status between a Baronet and an Earl, between a barrister and a QC, between a brickie and a sparky are acute to those involved but obscure to more distant social groups.0 -
Ding ding ding.DougSeal said:
She’s not going to get Trump voters and is not going to try. It’s the Obama voters who didn’t bother last time she’s after.HYUFD said:
Funny but that response will mainly go down well with coastal liberals who voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 anyway.williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
I fail to see what Trump voters in the Midwestern and Southern swing states Warren us going to win over? Biden might though.
Trump got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin. You don't need to win Trump voters, you need to get the huge number who didn't vote Hillary.0 -
Next you'll be telling us that 2020 is the 2020 2016...HYUFD said:
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.0 -
Osborne would've run a decent campaign, unlike May who blew a 20 point lead.0
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Fewer !Alistair said:
Ding ding ding.DougSeal said:
She’s not going to get Trump voters and is not going to try. It’s the Obama voters who didn’t bother last time she’s after.HYUFD said:
Funny but that response will mainly go down well with coastal liberals who voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 anyway.williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
I fail to see what Trump voters in the Midwestern and Southern swing states Warren us going to win over? Biden might though.
Trump got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin. You don't need to win Trump voters, you need to get the huge number who didn't vote Hillary. 0 -
There is something to this. But if we look at France and the UK, both were rule makers - super-powers who influenced events all over the globe. Once.Byronic said:
The evident enfeeblement of our politics and diplomacy is BECAUSE of our European Union membership. We haven't had to rely on ourselves, when talking about trade or frontiers or customs, for a long time. The muscle memory is almost gone, the sinews have atrophied. The same would apply to France or Germany if they were in a similar position.ozymandias said:
DTOPPING said:
Y.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
To close: If Labour can be returned by its decent rational members to its decent centre-left roots with a decent, economically literate Leader, my quid pro quo would be to vote Remain, with an active and vigourous approach to reform the EU. Make ourselves as influential and important to the EU as France or Germany. Mold it into what we want.
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate)
So we face a steep learning curve. It will be good for us, in the end.
France (grudgingly) realised it couldn't be the global rule maker it had previously been after WW2. That age was over. So it was instrumental in creating what became the EU in order to re-orientate its ability to make and influence the rules within a European context. Germany was hobbled and contrite and France could make a lot of hay.
The UK had exactly the same problem, but unlike the French we are, as a nation, much less nationalistic. Or overtly so anyway. We could have forged the Commonwealth into an EU analogue, but there was neither the political will or the desire of the newly freed countries to tie-back up with their ejected masters.
We were kept out of the European project precisely because of our differing approach to both politics in general and, to be blunt, we were still a major competitor of France.
When we were allowed into the European party it wasn't from a position of strength. It was within a context of a deteriorating economy and diplomatic influence. The EU was therefore seen as a plaster to stop the rot (we need help!) rather than an opportunity, as the French always saw it to increase and bolster their own standing.
So yes our diplomatic ability to get things done has deteriorated, and being int he EU has prevented it from becoming what it once was. But that's because we never saw the EU as an opportunity to dominate Europe (politically) and correspondingly convert our previous influence into a new influence.
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What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?HYUFD said:
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .0 -
The last Opinium poll before the 2016 EU referendum had Tories 34%, Labour 30%, LDs 19%.TOPPING said:
No he wouldn't have.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could have beaten Osborne after 9 years of austerity with no pro Brexit coalition behind the Tories to give a chance of a 4th term and with Farage and UKIP still up in the pollsTOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
The latest Opinium poll has Tories 38%, Labour 23%, LDs 15%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
HYUFD also does completely ignoring how people actually voted in the Pres election as well.Nigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
I think it took a hell of lot longer than immediately post WW2 for France to accept it couldn't be a global ruler. Especially in Africa. Despite Algeria, it still holds on to that notion in parts of that continent.ozymandias said:
France (grudgingly) realised it couldn't be the global rule maker it had previously been after WW2. That age was over. So it was instrumental in creating what became the EU in order to re-orientate its ability to make and influence the rules within a European context. Germany was hobbled and contrite and France could make a lot of hay.0 -
Deleted.0
-
I think you have to read Tusk properly. He's saying as of the start of the Barnier/Barclay meeting the EU still hadn't received new British proposals. He is also saying today is tge last day to get draft International Treaty text signed off by legal before EUCO. Given he was speaking a few minutes after the breakfast meeting ended he will have known the result.0
-
Exactly a Tory win vs Corbyn under all circumstances.HYUFD said:
The last Opinium poll before the 2016 EU referendum had Tories 34%, Labour 30%, LDs 19%.TOPPING said:
No he wouldn't have.HYUFD said:
Corbyn could have beaten Osborne after 9 years of austerity with no pro Brexit coalition behind the Tories to give a chance of a 4th term and with Farage and UKIP still up in the pollsTOPPING said:
Yes! Thank you it did. I would say also that by voting Leave (xenophobic campaign aside although I think it is an important factor and don't begrudge people for whom it is the primary one) you ushered in the era whereby we have the chance of a Corbyn PM. Vote Remain and we would be berating George Osborne for sticking out his little finger while having a pint of Old Peculiar on one of his PM's meet the people tours.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
I'm sorry to say but anyone but the out and out leavers (eg. @Richard_Tyndall et al) should hang their heads in shame at their behaviour by voting Leave without understanding (and I appreciate you are well-educated, etc, etc) that it was overwhelmingly likely that we would end up precisely where we are today. That is, having to make a series of least worst decisions with the spectre of Jeremy Corbyn on the one hand, and born-again ex-Tories like @HYUFD who accept any old shit the "Tory" party feeds them on the other.
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
The latest Opinium poll has Tories 38%, Labour 23%, LDs 15%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election0 -
If the Dems understand that they are not trying to persuade the un-persuadable, that will be a massive breakthrough for them. I fear that they will tack back towards the "old white guy" space and find that he loses to the "undeniably more old white guy" candidate.DougSeal said:
She’s not going to get Trump voters and is not going to try. It’s the Obama voters who didn’t bother last time she’s after.HYUFD said:
Funny but that response will mainly go down well with coastal liberals who voted for Hillary over Trump in 2016 anyway.williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
I fail to see what Trump voters in the Midwestern and Southern swing states Warren us going to win over? Biden might though.0 -
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html0 -
One of the Giuliani associates arrested yesterday founded a company called Fraud Guarantee...
https://www.fraudguarantee.com/our-team.html0 -
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters than Romney in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.Alistair said:
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?HYUFD said:
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.0 -
I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was studying poverty and realised that government regulation can do good for people. She is good at explaining why the government should do things in a way GOP voters understand and like. She isn't Bernie or Biden, who have better support amongst working class white voters atm, but she will do better than Clinton did.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
Leader of Ethiopia.malcolmg said:
Who is herkrkrk said:Dr Abiy Ahmed (Ethiopia) wins the Nobel peace prize!
He has brought to an end the long running war with Eritrea, freed political prisoners, restored democracy, revitalised the economy and started a massive reforestation programme.
Ethiopia has perhaps turned a corner.0 -
-
Does what it says on the tin....?Nigelb said:One of the Giuliani associates arrested yesterday founded a company called Fraud Guarantee...
https://www.fraudguarantee.com/our-team.html0 -
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.HYUFD said:
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.Alistair said:
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?HYUFD said:
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.0 -
So what was your equivalency for that famous 50/1 shot tipped by Mike?HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
Latest IBID/TIPP and Emerson polls have Warren with only a 2% popular vote lead over Trump, ie exactly the same as Hillary's popular vote lead in 2016 when she lost the Electoral College to Trump.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
Biden has a 7% lead over Trump with IBID/TIPP.0 -
It would be quite ironic if the ex-Republican beat the ex-Democrat in 2020, as I think she would by some margin if given the opportunity.148grss said:
I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was studying poverty and realised that government regulation can do good for people. She is good at explaining why the government should do things in a way GOP voters understand and like. She isn't Bernie or Biden, who have better support amongst working class white voters atm, but she will do better than Clinton did.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
+1DougSeal said:
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.HYUFD said:
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.Alistair said:
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?HYUFD said:
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
0 -
Morris Dancer's post very similar to my views and experience in the polling booth! Pencil did hover a little. I knew we'd be worse off for a few years.
To say you backed every word of what VoteLeave said if you voted Leave is total nonsense. Like saying every single word of a party manifesto must have been read, understood and 100% agreed with by every single voter for that party. Clearly untrue and ridiculous.
I expected us to Leave, and leave in a manner which would now be described as "hard" (A term never mentioned in the referendum campaign as far as oi remember, but like 99% of voters, i didn't follow it all that closely) but then begin the process of negotiating to in some way rejoin the bits we liked. of course we wouldn't get all we wanted, i knew that too.
As it turns out we need to agree a lot before we can do a lot more negotiating during a transition period. OK, makes sense. The exact manner of leaving and the details was absolutely not on the ballot paper, or even that important to voters. Leave means leave, that's just what people thought... it's not a difficult concept0 -
At an Invesco investment conference recently we were told she was the US version of Corbyn in terms of US political spectrum and with her potential policies for tech, banks and pharma stocks? Was that overly alarmist?Richard_Nabavi said:
She's miles better than Hillary, and she doesn't have the dodgy baggage. She's also extremely well organised - I don't think she'll make the arrogant blunders that Hillary made in her campaign.rottenborough said:0 -
HYUFD said:
Latest IBID/TIPP and Emerson polls have Warren with only a 2% popular vote lead over Trump, ie exactly the same as Hillary's popular vote lead in 2016 when she lost the Electoral College to Trump.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
Biden has a 7% lead over Trump with IBID/TIPP.
0 -
Not so sure, I think Warren could lose a few fiscal conservatives who voted for Hillary as they dislike Trump in areas like Orange County, California while failing to win working class Trump voters in the Midwest148grss said:
I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was studying poverty and realised that government regulation can do good for people. She is good at explaining why the government should do things in a way GOP voters understand and like. She isn't Bernie or Biden, who have better support amongst working class white voters atm, but she will do better than Clinton did.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
I mean, Trump won at the margins previously, and it is uncommon for a POTUS to do better in their reelection campaign than their first; especially a POTUS as unpopular as this one. Democrats have lots of possible target states to make headway. The rust belt will like Warren more than Clinton. Florida has given the vote to ex convicts and has had recent immigrants with voting rights from Puerto Rico. Nevada is increasingly looking purple, and I know every year people talk about Texas, but again, it could happen.HYUFD said:
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters than Romney in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.Alistair said:
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?HYUFD said:
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
This is no cake walk for Trump; far from it. Should his approvals fall any further and / or a real *cough*MittRomney*cough* primary challenger turn up who can get around 25% of the GOP vote, it doesn't spell good odds for his reelection.0 -
All true.ozymandias said:
There is something to this. But if we look at France and the UK, both were rule makers - super-powers who influenced events all over the globe. Once.Byronic said:
The evident enfeeblemozymandias said:
DTOPPING said:
Y.ozymandias said:I hope that kind of answers your question Mr Topping
Your fault.
Sozza, you seem a hugely nice, engaging and articulate person but this is on you.
T
(And I'll put the EU flag back on my number-plate)
So we face a steep learning curve. It will be good for us, in the end.
When we were allowed into the European party it wasn't from a position of strength. It was within a context of a deteriorating economy and diplomatic influence. The EU was therefore seen as a plaster to stop the rot (we need help!) rather than an opportunity, as the French always saw it to increase and bolster their own standing.
So yes our diplomatic ability to get things done has deteriorated, and being int he EU has prevented it from becoming what it once was. But that's because we never saw the EU as an opportunity to dominate Europe (politically) and correspondingly convert our previous influence into a new influence.
You miss one important point. The UK could gently retire from the global scene, knowing that the world would continue to be dominated by its values, because of the size of the ex-Empire, and because of the socio-cultural dominance of the United States.
By 1945, moreover, the global hegemony of the English Language was inevitable, with so many major players speaking it, esp the USA. And English was the language of the victors of World War 2. It was a premium brand.
So England/Britain could be much more relaxed about decline than France, which faced cultural usurpation by the Anglo-Saxons AND the steep descent of the French language into irrelevance,
That's another reason why the French were keen on Europe, as a way of preserving French culture and language at the highest levels. Then we joined the EU and got them all to speak English.
Heh.0 -
Speaking of Romney, he is perhaps on manoeuvres.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/mitt-romney-2020-plan-to-help-republicans-044221
Very happy about my 1000/1 bet on him for 2020.0 -
Such bitterness! One might think JLC had had a much more successful & illustrious career in the male modelling trade than yer guid self.Byronic said:
Like so many Leavers, he'll be dead very soon, so who cares what he thinks. He's 87Theuniondivvie said:Many Leavers will hate this but some perhaps not. An interesting read anyway.
https://twitter.com/OnaliEnrico/status/1182562838172315648?s=200 -
This is so startling even Corbyn noticed as soon as Johnson's offer letter was published.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Yes.Scrapheap_as_was said:
At an Invesco investment conference recently we were told she was the US version of Corbyn in terms of US political spectrum and with her potential policies for tech, banks and pharma stocks? Was that overly alarmist?Richard_Nabavi said:
She's miles better than Hillary, and she doesn't have the dodgy baggage. She's also extremely well organised - I don't think she'll make the arrogant blunders that Hillary made in her campaign.rottenborough said:
For a start, she's a capitalist, unlike Sanders.
And just as pertinently, even Bernie would struggle to get any real socialism through Congress.
One might also note that previous antitrust efforts against first the oil companies, and later telecoms, did no real damage to their investors.
0 -
Yes, she does have a determination and drive as well as quite impressive grass roots support. I cannot see Biden or Bernie going the distance.Richard_Nabavi said:
She's miles better than Hillary, and she doesn't have the dodgy baggage. She's also extremely well organised - I don't think she'll make the arrogant blunders that Hillary made in her campaign.rottenborough said:0 -
I don't like to correct such an expert on polls as your good self but I'm sure I would have remembered a 19% poll rating for the LDs in the 2015-17 Parliament.HYUFD said:
The last Opinium poll before the 2016 EU referendum had Tories 34%, Labour 30%, LDs 19%.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
The latest Opinium poll has Tories 38%, Labour 23%, LDs 15%
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
You're quoting the UKIP vote share for the pre-referendum Opinium poll. LD vote share was 6% so a significant step forward for the Party since then as I'm sure you would agree.1 -
All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.AlastairMeeks said:3 -
Agree with tht first point. Also Ed Milliband's problem.nunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
But also, the ability to essentially say to the hypothetical voter, "I disagree with you on this, if that's a big problem then don't vote for me". That gets my respect whatever my own view on the issue.0 -
Romney won't get the nomination over Trump even if he ranNigelb said:Speaking of Romney, he is perhaps on manoeuvres.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/mitt-romney-2020-plan-to-help-republicans-044221
Very happy about my 1000/1 bet on him for 2020.0 -
As we know from the whole "Shy Tory" syndrome, people who are reluctant to admit a political affiliation will nonetheless cast their General Election vote that way.Stocky said:I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
Factor in the likelihood that Brexit-in-practice will turn out not to be sunlit uplands, and the next General Election is going to be astonishingly difficult to call.0 -
I was clearly satirising Remainer attitudes to old people.Theuniondivvie said:
Such bitterness! One might think JLC had had a much more successful & illustrious career in the male modelling trade than yer guid self.Byronic said:
Like so many Leavers, he'll be dead very soon, so who cares what he thinks. He's 87Theuniondivvie said:Many Leavers will hate this but some perhaps not. An interesting read anyway.
https://twitter.com/OnaliEnrico/status/1182562838172315648?s=20
That said there is a definite tiny subset of crotchety old writers who have been driven tonto by Brexit.
Philip Pullman
Ian McEwan
Michael Morpurgo
and now
John Le Carre?
Have all gone variously round the bend. There are probably others.0 -
@Byronic and @ozymandias are fooling themselves. The disasters of the last few years are all down to the fact that Leave campaigned for xenophobia and hosing money at the NHS and not much else. It turns out that can’t be turned into a sane plan for Brexit. Nor can it just be ignored. Blaming the diplomats for your own moral failings is risible.1
-
Latest Fox poll has Warren with a 10% lead over Trump, the same as Biden. That poll was published yesterday, as opposed to the "latest" poll you cited which was published 4 days ago.HYUFD said:
Latest IBID/TIPP and Emerson polls have Warren with only a 2% popular vote lead over Trump, ie exactly the same as Hillary's popular vote lead in 2016 when she lost the Electoral College to Trump.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
Biden has a 7% lead over Trump with IBID/TIPP.0 -
The only problem with this analysis is that T May did not negotiate a long term brexit end point. She negotiated a transition deal with the future to be negotiated. Also how dividing a reduction in GDP and dividing by the population and shouting we will ALL be poorer is a little hyperbolic.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Over impeached ex-President Trump ?HYUFD said:
Romney won't get the nomination over Trump even if he ranNigelb said:Speaking of Romney, he is perhaps on manoeuvres.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/11/mitt-romney-2020-plan-to-help-republicans-044221
Very happy about my 1000/1 bet on him for 2020.
I think he might just manage that.0 -
I predicted Obama would be re elected in 2012 when some on here were tipping Romney, in 2016 on election night I was saying Trump still had a chance even when RCS called it for HillaryFoxy said:
So what was your equivalency for that famous 50/1 shot tipped by Mike?HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.0 -
Yes. Some of us will be a lot poorer.ralphmalph said:
The only problem with this analysis is that T May did not negotiate a long term brexit end point. She negotiated a transition deal with the future to be negotiated. Also how dividing a reduction in GDP and dividing by the population and shouting we will ALL be poorer is a little hyperbolic.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Hillary was terrible. Warren is much better IMHO.rottenborough said:0 -
Brexit with deal will mean no difference is noted at the GE as we will be in transition. It's the one after this one that the Brexit economic outcome will decide. This election will be about the buckling and collapse of the Labour shields in England and WalesEl_Capitano said:
As we know from the whole "Shy Tory" syndrome, people who are reluctant to admit a political affiliation will nonetheless cast their General Election vote that way.Stocky said:I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
Factor in the likelihood that Brexit-in-practice will turn out not to be sunlit uplands, and the next General Election is going to be astonishingly difficult to call.0 -
This is the 98,483rd occasion on which you've said this. It doesn't grow more persuasive over time.AlastairMeeks said:@Byronic and @ozymandias are fooling themselves. The disasters of the last few years are all down to the fact that Leave campaigned for xenophobia and hosing money at the NHS and not much else. It turns out that can’t be turned into a sane plan for Brexit. Nor can it just be ignored. Blaming the diplomats for your own moral failings is risible.
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That's not an entirely unfair comment... but haven't you been round it three or four times and come back for more ?Byronic said:
I was clearly satirising Remainer attitudes to old people.Theuniondivvie said:
Such bitterness! One might think JLC had had a much more successful & illustrious career in the male modelling trade than yer guid self.Byronic said:
Like so many Leavers, he'll be dead very soon, so who cares what he thinks. He's 87Theuniondivvie said:Many Leavers will hate this but some perhaps not. An interesting read anyway.
https://twitter.com/OnaliEnrico/status/1182562838172315648?s=20
That said there is a definite tiny subset of crotchety old writers who have been driven tonto by Brexit.
Philip Pullman
Ian McEwan
Michael Morpurgo
and now
John Le Carre?
Have all gone variously round the bend. There are probably others. 0 -
Wrong.DougSeal said:
He did significantly worse with black and other ethnic minority voters. That’s why he is trying to suppress their vote in 2020.HYUFD said:
Trump did better with working class voters and poor voters in the key swing states that counted in the Midwest and South, Trump did worse than Romney with upper middle class voters in the coastal states that are safe Democratic anyway.Alistair said:
What base? The base that voted for Romney at almost exactly the same rate?HYUFD said:
Hillary won all 3 post debate polls, she still lost the election as they made no difference to Trump's base in Midwestern swing statesNigelb said:
Is anyone polarisable not yet polarised ?Byronic said:
Rather clever, but very polarising. On that brief glimpse, she's much less annoying than HillaryBenpointer said:williamglenn said:Don’t bet against Warren.
https://twitter.com/jordanuhl/status/1182468483906527232?s=21
That's just brilliant!
Point is she would make Trump look the lumbering walrus-wit he is in any presidential debate.
And she has the timing to deliver a punchline that Hillary never did.
Missing Obama voters is the key, not cracking the "always voted Republican all their life block" .
For example, Trump got 47.5% in Michigan and Romney only got 44.7%.
In California though Romney got 37.1% but Trump only got 31.6%.
Trump won 8% of the black vote, Romney only won 6% of the black vote.
Trump also won 29% of the Hispanic vote, Romney only won 27% of the Hispanic vote.0 -
I don't think so, but yes - and potentially a vey powerful one. I haven't read the story, but assuming it's a personal account of a bad outcome from one of the diseases protected against by MMR it may make people stop and think (in a way that straightforward medical advice, unfortunately, sometimes fails to do).Richard_Nabavi said:Incidentally, have we commented on the other headline at the top of the Mail front page? A bit of a turnaround for the Mail, albeit a very welcome if belated one.
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The "TUV" says no. They have never, in the history of the solar system, said Yes.williamglenn said:Ulster says No.
https://twitter.com/bbcnolan/status/1182583171243749376?s=21
We await a more mainstream position.0 -
It does become funnier though, with the side salad of derangement.....Byronic said:
This is the 98,483rd occasion on which you've said this. It doesn't grow more persuasive over time.AlastairMeeks said:@Byronic and @ozymandias are fooling themselves. The disasters of the last few years are all down to the fact that Leave campaigned for xenophobia and hosing money at the NHS and not much else. It turns out that can’t be turned into a sane plan for Brexit. Nor can it just be ignored. Blaming the diplomats for your own moral failings is risible.
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Yep. Early Hillary was much more likeable.Selebian said:
Agree with tht first point. Also Ed Milliband's problem.nunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
But also, the ability to essentially say to the hypothetical voter, "I disagree with you on this, if that's a big problem then don't vote for me". That gets my respect whatever my own view on the issue.0 -
At the moment, the only remorse I have is that three and a half years on the goods I bought have still to be delivered and that the supplier is now arguing that the contract I signed was worthless.Stocky said:I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
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I have no idea what an Overton is, but I am up for a darned good revocation!Noo said:
All those remainers who are breathing a sigh of relief at a glimpse of ankle from yesterday's news, pay attention. This is hard Brexit. You've been gaslit into fearing No Deal so much you're now willing to listen to what was, three years ago, the nightmare scenario. Classic Overton window shenanigans. This is not a compromise. Revoke.AlastairMeeks said:twitter.com/chrisgiles_/status/1182595006382645249?s=21
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She can afford to lose fiscal conservatives in OC, or NY, or anywhere solidly blue. Any Dem will do better than pre Trump era in the suburbs; we've seen this in House races across multiple states. And I think Clinton was uniquely reviled by many voters, even historic Democratic voters. Warren is much more popular than Clinton, and will do better with working class whites than Clinton. Trump barely won the rust belt first time around, and he hasn't become any more popular.HYUFD said:
Not so sure, I think Warren could lose a few fiscal conservatives who voted for Hillary as they dislike Trump in areas like Orange County, California while failing to win working class Trump voters in the Midwest148grss said:
I think people ignore that Warren used to be a Republican and probably voted for Reagan. She had a Damascus moment when she was studying poverty and realised that government regulation can do good for people. She is good at explaining why the government should do things in a way GOP voters understand and like. She isn't Bernie or Biden, who have better support amongst working class white voters atm, but she will do better than Clinton did.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
Trump 2016: Michigan, won by ~ 0.25%, Pennsylvannia, won by less than 1%, Wisconsin, won by less than 1%. If Warren loses no Clinton state, that is a Warren win.0 -
Nobel Peace Prize - very glad they went for the grown up choice. Possibly off to Ethiopia next year.0
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I trust you won't be purchasing from that supplier again?Wulfrun_Phil said:
At the moment, the only remorse I have is that three and a half years on the goods I bought have still to be delivered and that the supplier is now arguing that the contract I signed was worthless.Stocky said:I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
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I realise that it is not new. Nor is it complicated. It is simple and true and the point that Leavers will never get over.Byronic said:
This is the 98,483rd occasion on which you've said this. It doesn't grow more persuasive over time.AlastairMeeks said:@Byronic and @ozymandias are fooling themselves. The disasters of the last few years are all down to the fact that Leave campaigned for xenophobia and hosing money at the NHS and not much else. It turns out that can’t be turned into a sane plan for Brexit. Nor can it just be ignored. Blaming the diplomats for your own moral failings is risible.
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You didn't sign a contract. You expressed an opinion. And since then you've not been able to agree with your fellow travellers what you wanted.Wulfrun_Phil said:
At the moment, the only remorse I have is that three and a half years on the goods I bought have still to be delivered and that the supplier is now arguing that the contract I signed was worthless.Stocky said:I`ve long thought that the best way to "dishonour" the 2016 Referndum result will come when leavers themselves say they have changed their minds. I believe that many have buyer`s remorse but are reluctant to admit it.
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So on average Biden still does better than Warren thenWulfrun_Phil said:
Latest Fox poll has Warren with a 10% lead over Trump, the same as Biden. That poll was published yesterday, as opposed to the "latest" poll you cited which was published 4 days ago.HYUFD said:
Latest IBID/TIPP and Emerson polls have Warren with only a 2% popular vote lead over Trump, ie exactly the same as Hillary's popular vote lead in 2016 when she lost the Electoral College to Trump.Nigelb said:
LOL.HYUFD said:
I say what I have learnt from the last few decades of US presidential elections, if liberals on here don't like the findings toughNigelb said:
Are you capable of any comment on US presidential politics other than far fetched equivalencies ?HYUFD said:
Warren is a female John Kerry or Michael Dukakis to Hillary's Al Gorenunuone said:
Disagree.rottenborough said:
No matter what Clinton said it always had a feel of preparation, like nothing was off the cuff.
Warren however to me seems more natural, and 100% more likeable. Will she win the electoral college? Who knows.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_warren-6251.html
Biden has a 7% lead over Trump with IBID/TIPP.0 -
13% Con lead - not bad at all.dyedwoolie said: 0
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