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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiar

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiary

Survation Mail post Supreme Court poll votingCON 27% -2LAB 24% =LD 22% +4BREX 16% -1

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,777
    Boris still massively ahead as best PM.

    Corbyn third. Great conference, Labour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    Wow, reading back over the last 12 hours, everybody needs to seriously calm down.

    Politicians, journalists, commenters on blogs and social media. Everyone.

    I think a day’s hard work is preferable to another day like yesterday, with everyone shouting past each other and almost no-one listening to a different point of view.

    Back to lurking for me, laters.
  • There are slow-burning scandals either side of the Atlantic that might change everything but will probably fizzle out as these things tend to.

    Trump in the Ukraine, and Boris in Arcurigate.
  • Con+Lab = 51% (-31) = UNS next to worthless
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,533
    Most importantly, LAFC has won the MLS Supporters Shield!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288

    Con+Lab = next to worthless

    Also works.
  • Revoke shortens

    Best prices - Article 50 to be revoked

    No 4/11
    Yes 2/1
  • Best prices - Next UK GE

    NOM 4/6
    Con Maj 15/8
    Lab Maj 12/1
    Any other party Maj 28/1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    Good to know the government has a standard template for bankruptcies in the run up to Brexit.....
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/25/grants-shapps-lifts-sections-of-speech-from-chris-grayling
  • Nigelb said:

    Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

    Don't you hate it when you get a corbyn stuck in your OODA loop
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288

    Nigelb said:

    Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

    Don't you hate it when you get a corbyn stuck in your OODA loop
    An experience all of us would seek to avoid.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Boris still massively ahead as best PM.

    Corbyn third. Great conference, Labour.

    Given the circumstances that gap is an absolutely shocking indictment of the alternatives.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,054
    Anyone made sure no sharp objects near HYUFD?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Nigelb said:

    Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

    The plan didn't survive contact with the opposition.
  • Remain 53%
    Leave 47%

    There is the key figure.

    Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.

    This is going to get worse.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Remain 53%
    Leave 47%

    There is the key figure.

    Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.

    This is going to get worse.

    No different to the Scots fighting over independence,,
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,088
    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

  • On Boris and the humbug comment.

    He did not need to respond to Sherriff's comment in the manner that he did. The question from Sherriff was (IMO) not very good – in tone or presentation, and he could just have ignored it and continued talking about the bill, or started with “Let me explain why I call this the surrender act ...”

    Instead, he paused during a commotion, and then said “I have to say Mr Speaker, I have never heard such humbug in all my life. The reality is, this is is a bill ...” Then, after another lengthy and noisy interruption, he says: “Well Mr Speaker, let me just explain why I call this the surrender act ...”

    So, why did he say it? There are probably a couple of options, and none of them reflect well on the PM.

    Firstly, he was shocked by the vehemence of Sherriff’s comment, and despite starting one line about the bill, changed tack to deliver a poorly-considered line. He did not think about how the comment would look to many people.

    Secondly, that Sherriff’s comment diverted him, and he used the few seconds of commotion in the house to consider his response. He meant to say when he did, and his instinct is that it will play well to his intended audience.

    The former marks him out not to be a fleet-of-foot thinker; someone who has a good turn of phrase when writing (i.e. not under pressure), but not very good in verbal combat.

    The latter marks him out as a really nasty piece of work, and the last person who should be asked to bring the country back together at this time.

    As ever, people will make of it what they will; many Brexiteers will see it as a masterly move, whilst many Labourites will see it as appalling, even as they applaud or condone similar comments being made against Conservatives.

    But it’s a tragedy that the country has descended to this level.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Congratulations.

    Looks like you managed to add a bonus prize to your winnings in the lottery of life.
  • eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Congratulations. Have pity for those of us who are stuck on this benighted island with all the mad Brexit mob.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758
    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    The sort of comment I write very early in the morning, pause over, then delete.
  • On Boris and the humbug comment.
    ...
    As ever, people will make of it what they will

    Personally, I think it points to a lack of empathy and compassion which reflects badly on Johnson.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    The sort of comment I write very early in the morning, pause over, then delete.
    You're probably right. No coffee in the system yet.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    fyi the Swiss train I'm on - SWISS - just departed two minutes late.

    Make of that what you will.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    TOPPING said:

    fyi the Swiss train I'm on - SWISS - just departed two minutes late.

    Make of that what you will.

    It really is the end of times, isn't it?
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Raining quite a bit again.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,775
    Must admit, I thought all that stuff about Boris as Britain's Trump was overblown. Guess I was wrong.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017

    On Boris and the humbug comment.
    ...
    As ever, people will make of it what they will

    Personally, I think it points to a lack of empathy and compassion which reflects badly on Johnson.
    It's obvious he's a narcissist
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    rkrkrk said:

    Must admit, I thought all that stuff about Boris as Britain's Trump was overblown. Guess I was wrong.

    It's not the best comparison though, is it? Trump actually won an election.
  • Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    The sort of comment I write very early in the morning, pause over, then delete.
    You're probably right. No coffee in the system yet.
    but it was hugely amusing nevertheless , unless you are from the seriously politically correct spectrum.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017
    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    We can but hope that trend picks up, that to coin sean_T's phrase, we are saved by soft Scottish vowels
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rkrkrk said:

    Must admit, I thought all that stuff about Boris as Britain's Trump was overblown. Guess I was wrong.


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
  • TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Yes, very true.
  • Foxy said:
    And that's why No 10 are desperate to get an election in ASAP. At the moment, BJohnson is just about able to ride the "good deal" and "no deal" horses simultaneously. The minute he has to choose explicitly, a chunk of his support falls off. Much better for him that he gets an election done before that.

    I wonder what conversations are happening over the family breakfast tables of Conservative MPs this morning?
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    Today's parliamentary debate seems to be trying to answer Burkes delegate or representative question in reverse.
    The agenda is this

    9.30am Prayers
    Afterwards Urgent Questions, Ministerial Statements (if any)
    No debate Adjournment (Conference) (Motion)
    Until 5.00pm General Debate: Principles of democracy and the rights of the
    electorate
    No debate Presentation of Public Petitions
    So we get the fireworks of the other parties not suspending Parliament for the Tory conference first.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017
    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,288
    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Johnson’s personal ratings - competence/incompetence, strength/weakness etc - have declined markedly according to the morning’s Times (no link as I was - the horror - reading a print version).
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,474
    TOPPING said:

    fyi the Swiss train I'm on - SWISS - just departed two minutes late.

    Make of that what you will.

    Truly these are dark times we live in.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758
    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    nielh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

    The plan didn't survive contact with the opposition.
    Reading that I do hope the opposition have planned how to handle a Boris resignation.

    Take power - but implement Labour's Brexit policy and ask for a 12 month extension with a quick renegotiation followed by a leave (with deal) or remain referendum with a general election delayed until late 2020 or 2021 seems a more sensible approach to finalise Brexit than another election.

    And if the Tories wish for an election - just take the Chiltern Hundreds and you can have one.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.

    And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Johnson’s personal ratings - competence/incompetence, strength/weakness etc - have declined markedly according to the morning’s Times (no link as I was - the horror - reading a print version).
    How quaint. But again this is a trend we have seen over a period not an immediate reaction to the SC decision, let alone last night's tantrums.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.
  • DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Lots of discussion last night about whether various leave options do or do not fulfill the democratic wish of the electorate as voted for in the referendum.

    Question for HYUFD. “As a democrat” do you believe that May’s deal met the requirements to deliver this?
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.

    And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.
    Nothing because she knows how he would react
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,450
    I have now seen how the Dems are going to fuck up impeachment. They are openly talking about trying to get it all done by the end of October.

    What absolute fools.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    DavidL said:

    TOPPING said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    The sort of comment I write very early in the morning, pause over, then delete.
    You're probably right. No coffee in the system yet.
    but it was hugely amusing nevertheless , unless you are from the seriously politically correct spectrum.
    Not often accused of that.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017
    edited September 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.
    In a four way election all bets are off. Voting LD is more likely to result in LD MPs (south) and Tory MPs (north). My view is are so unpredictable the tipping point may be reached sooner
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.

    And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.
    To be fair on Johnson he is breaking down himself on a cocktail of coffee and other stimulants. His Prometheus speech was beyond bonkers on Tuesday. What a national embarrassment.

    Britain's pretences of civilised discourse and stiff upper lip are chucked into the plague pit of Brexit.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Odd way to announce your retirement from Parliament. Or is it a token gesture due to problems finding a candidate in F&GG?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 32,220
    TOPPING said:

    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.
    Swinson is an annoying duffer, voting Lib Dem is worse than choosing between Mutt and Jeff.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    edited September 2019

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    And Boris, and 17.4m voters...

    “Bollocks to non Lib Dem’s” - how very inflammatory.
  • TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Corbyn will trash the country. Johnson will torch the country.

    I’m far from Corbynite, but after last night, Corbyn is the least worst option.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I think a concern for Boris backers from the Survation poll is the 62/27 split on an apology to the Queen. The Prime Minister would do well to reflect on the comments by Jess Philips in the HoC last night. Some contrition from Boris would have been welcome.

    However the strategy from the Prime Minister is clear. His intention is to weaponize BREXIT to the maximum and use any language to inflame the issue and use Trumpian tactics in the coming general election campaign.

    We now have a Prime Minister who leads a party that is Conservative in name only and is more akin to a BREXIT-Lite front. He has morphed in to a "Donald Mini Me" and it is an ugly sight to behold.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.
    Swinson is an annoying duffer, voting Lib Dem is worse than choosing between Mutt and Jeff.
    Thank you Malcy for that constructive and well thought out criticism...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,031
    Sandpit said:

    Wow, reading back over the last 12 hours, everybody needs to seriously calm down.

    Politicians, journalists, commenters on blogs and social media. Everyone.

    I think a day’s hard work is preferable to another day like yesterday, with everyone shouting past each other and almost no-one listening to a different point of view.

    Back to lurking for me, laters.

    Same here. Real work of generating export earnings
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 5,605
    ydoethur said:

    Odd way to announce your retirement from Parliament. Or is it a token gesture due to problems finding a candidate in F&GG?

    She is a LibDem -- what do you expect?

    After all those protestations about how deep her roots are in Liverpool ... just another LibDem liar.

    She is now the PPC for FGG

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49831648

    The former PPC has been booted out.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,914
    malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.
    Swinson is an annoying duffer, voting Lib Dem is worse than choosing between Mutt and Jeff.
    If you lived in England, who would you (consider) vote for?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    edited September 2019
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758
    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Corbyn will trash the country. Johnson will torch the country.

    I’m far from Corbynite, but after last night, Corbyn is the least worst option.
    He still isn't. They're roughly equal. And that's the most damning thing I can think of to say about him.
  • eek said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.

    And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.
    Nothing because she knows how he would react
    That might end up being important. Maggie had Dennis to tell her the game was up. He could do that because he'd known and loved her for ages. Who has Boris got when it goes pearshaped, whenever that is?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    ydoethur said:

    Odd way to announce your retirement from Parliament. Or is it a token gesture due to problems finding a candidate in F&GG?
    It was going to be F&GG or Chipping Barnet.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,088

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.
    Yep, The Cleggasm didn't occurr until the GE campaign.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,914
    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    There is the enduring hope that Conservative backbenchers will end this, but it’s a very long shot. They would need to see a route to a new leader and a way to save their seat. Is there a safe pair of hands waiting in the wings?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017
    TGOHF2 said:

    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    And Boris, and 17.4m voters...

    “Bollocks to non Lib Dem’s” - how very inflammatory.
    No apostrophe required 😎
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    Has to be said that whoever wins if Rupa Huq was defeated she would be no loss to national life. Vile excuse for a human being. And I'm just thinking about her racism but her support for her equally loathsome family.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017
    edited September 2019
    The (g)nats really dislike Swinson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    Odd way to announce your retirement from Parliament. Or is it a token gesture due to problems finding a candidate in F&GG?
    It was going to be F&GG or Chipping Barnet.
    But she isn't going to win it. (If she does, Swinson will be staring at a landslide even Baldwin never dreamed of.) So effectively, she is retiring from Parliament.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,641
    edited September 2019
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    Has to be said that whoever wins if Rupa Huq was defeated she would be no loss to national life. Vile excuse for a human being. And I'm just thinking about her racism but her support for her equally loathsome family.
    Loathsomeness is not a trait she is short of.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    eek said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.

    And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.
    Nothing because she knows how he would react
    That might end up being important. Maggie had Dennis to tell her the game was up. He could do that because he'd known and loved her for ages. Who has Boris got when it goes pearshaped, whenever that is?
    How on earth could you identify when things have gone pearshaped for Boris. He is already so deep into unchartered territory it would be impossible to gauge. Most people would probably have said the game was up once his request for an election was rejected.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,914
    There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    80 from the Tories, plus the other 21.

    Another 100 from Labour.

    Plus the half dozen independents.

    Liberal Democrats largest party and Jo Swinson heads a temporary government, revokes Brexit and we can have an election with the time pressure off.

    Yes, yes I can see the problems, but in the vanishingly unlikely event it happened it would probably be the best way out of this disaster.

    Have a good morning.
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469
    The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

    The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

    If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

    The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

    If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

    Wow.

    If that is for real, Labour in particular are in much, much bigger trouble than I thought. This is a seat where the Lib vote has never gone above 17%.

    TTFN.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.

    Neither will.

    TheSAJ is in the biggest job he will ever have.

    Gove clearly has no love for BoZo, but bringing him down probably dooms Brexit, which Gove does seem to believe in. Unlike BoZo
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,017
    Jonathan said:

    There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.

    Neither will because it would end their careers
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    80 from the Tories, plus the other 21.

    Another 100 from Labour.

    Plus the half dozen independents.

    Liberal Democrats largest party and Jo Swinson heads a temporary government, revokes Brexit and we can have an election with the time pressure off.

    Yes, yes I can see the problems, but in the vanishingly unlikely event it happened it would probably be the best way out of this disaster.

    Have a good morning.
    Revoke doesn't settle the Brexit - it would be the focus point of the next election with real anger involved from the Brexiter side.

    The only way to settle Brexit is a second referendum - which scarily shows that Corbyn is actually right for once.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758

    Tabman said:

    The (g)nats really dislike Swinson.

    So do the Corbynites. They realise the threat.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,450
    Tabman said:

    The (g)nats really dislike Swinson.

    Oh god. Are we going to do "The Nats fear Jim Murphy" again?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,775
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    Has to be said that whoever wins if Rupa Huq was defeated she would be no loss to national life. Vile excuse for a human being. And I'm just thinking about her racism but her support for her equally loathsome family.
    What have you got against Konnie Huq!?
This discussion has been closed.