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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    edited September 2019
    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    I dont like BoJo and wouldnt have him as PM. Atm the elctorate is being given the choice between shit and shite, neithers that appealing . None of the parties so far is doing much to have a vision and some policies bar Brexit yelling, though Corbyn imo is probably closest to it.

    However I think this is us watching the death of an old order, we know what is being left behind but dont yet know what will replace it. But somehing will.
  • GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Noo said:

    Jonathan said:

    There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.

    Or a number of lesser figures. I can't believe the Conservative Party can't find ten or twelve MPs with the required backbone and moral standards to end this dangerous, farcical premiership. I thought there were still a few good Tories left.
    If they did 67% of Tory members and the majority of Tory voters would defect an masse to the Brexit Party rather than support deposing Boris for a pro extension PM, just making Farage rather than Boris the lead right wing candidate for PM, the Tories would collapse to 3rd or even 4th
    But Farage would ride the wave of anger to become PM.

    If people think that Boris is winding them up - oh boy. Prepare to be tripling your blood pressure meds when Farage gets the levers of power.
    You really have lost it. Perhaps you need to look at Farage's history when it comes to even getting himself a seat at Westminster. Farage appeals to people of fascist or gullible tendency. Thankfully that is still a minority interest even in these febrile times.
    All Farage's past failures were with UKIP. The Brexit Party is a very different and much more formidable outfit.

    Take a look at their digital campaign during the EU elections for example. UKIP were never capable of producing anything like that.
    I still have a little faith in the ability of people to see him for what he is, in the same way as people have for Corbyn.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,795

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
    If Labour were still led by Ed M or had Hilary Benn as a leader I seriously doubt the poll in the header would be showing Labour on 27%.

    I get that you are passionate about Corbyn and his politics but I think you need to be a bit more realistic about where they are taking the Labour Party. All the bluster in the world about "Tory Swinson" won't disguise the fact that if the appalling Johnson wins the next GE it will be largely down to Jeremy Corbyn.
  • FF43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    Verty thoughtful response to Johnson from Brendan Cox this morning, with a gentle reminder to us all, not just Boris (ex-Guardian blog report on his R4 interview):

    “I’m sure on reflection, it’s something that he would probably wish he hadn’t said. I think it was sloppy language and the wrong thing to say, but I don’t think that he is an evil man.”

    He added: “What isn’t legitimate is to co-opt her memory or her beliefs for things that she didn’t believe in or didn’t say. I was thinking about how Jo would respond to it last night. She would have tried to take a generosity of spirit to it. And thought about how in this moment, you can step back from this growing inferno of rhetoric.”

    Cox urged politicians of both sides of the Brexit debate to tone down the rhetoric used and stop portraying each other as good or evil. “We just have to have a more nuanced understanding to remember our common our common humanity,” Cox said.

    “I was genuinely shocked by the the willingness to descend to vitriol, because I think it does long lasting harm. To have this debate descend into this bear pit of polarisation, I think it’s dangerous for our country.”

    There is a willingness to jump out and decry the other side when they use language like ‘surrender’ or ‘traitor’ or ‘betrayal’. And I think that is inflammatory language. But as inflammatory are those people who have used the language of it being a ‘coup’ and ‘dictatorship’ and ‘fascism’.

    I think both of those approaches are unacceptable. It is not just bad behaviour by one side of the debate. This is something which is infected our politics, and it’s this vicious cycle where language gets more extreme, response gets more extreme, it all gets hyped up ... It creates an atmosphere where I think violence and attacks are more likely.

    You can disagree passionately with people. But you don’t have to impugn their motives, whether you are a hard Brexiteer or a hard remainer, actually, what you have in common is a desire to do what you think is best for the country.

    What isn’t acceptable is to demonize each other to build a culture of hatred to the other to create this tribal identity. Whatever happens with Brexit, the country is going to have to come together again. And we have to remember that, otherwise, we’ll be building a toxic legacy.
    Brendan Cox is IMO undeservedly kind to Johnson. Johnson clearly calculates his responses. He also appears to be very angry about what has happened with his prorogation gambit, which he takes no responsibility for.

    Johnson shares with Trump the emotional intelligence of a toddler.
    Which reflects the emotional intelligence of their respective loyal following sadly.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are slow-burning scandals either side of the Atlantic that might change everything but will probably fizzle out as these things tend to.

    Trump in the Ukraine, and Boris in Arcurigate.

    Laugh at me if you will but I have a sense that there is something smelly behind the partial leaking of a note about the A-G's legal advice and the A-G's hysterical speech yesterday attacking Parliament. It felt as if he was under pressure in some way, as if he felt he needed to go over the top to prove his loyalty or to avoid any further unfortunate leaking.

    I may be completely off the ball here but something does not smell right to me.

    Whether we will ever find out or if we do it will turn into a scandal is another matter. Were I a journalist I would do some more probing.
    I think the A-G and Johnson made a deliberate decision to raise the temperature, in a dead-cat strategy to blot out discussion of the SC verdict and simply polarise opinion.
    Think Johnson and his AG. Think Trump and his AG.
    The relationship is almost the same. These two AG's appear to be servants of the administration like any other minister.
    Indeed. Odd for Cox to go along with this. He has earned very well indeed as a QC while still an MP. So he clearly has an interest in maintaining his legal career. He risks harming his reputation and integrity if he carries on like this; think Lord Goldsmith.

    His chambers btw are called Thomas More Chambers. Oh, the irony!

    "It profits a man nothing to give his soul for the whole world ... but for Wales?"
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Just to check I'm understanding this correctly -

    How would you vote in new EU referendum?
    Leave 47
    Remain 53

    If PM fails to get Brexit deal by October 31, what should he do?
    Extend EU's EU membership 43
    Leave without deal 49
    Don't know 8

    Is it safe to assume that if the options in the second question had been "Remain" and "Leave without deal," then "Remain" would have won?

    Or should we stop taking opinion polls so seriously?

    The second question sounds like a proxy for “drag it out or get it over with”. Some of the people answering No Deal would probably support revocation.
    To my mind that is the likeliest way of reconciling those apparently contradictory results.

    It would be interesting to see how many people would agree with
    "I would just like the Brexit issue to disappear and I don't particularly mind how it's resolved."

    Has any pollster asked anything like that, I wonder.
    Off feel I think you are looking at 20%?
    With that rising significantly to around 70% for any deal or 2nd ref?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:



    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    Spain has its own trauma in the Civil War
    Yes and it still overshadows their political life, as does WW2 elsewhere.

    Even now they are having a bitter argument about Franco's bones, despite the fact that virtually everyone who can remember the war is dead.
    'My Grandad told me' is quite powerful.

    Or when you find this in graves which have been opened - https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/05/08/inenglish/1557327917_803284.html&psig=AOvVaw0igh3yqIeG90NkZGwvkR9N&ust=1569572555410000&source=images&cd=vfe&ved=0CAIQjRxqFwoTCLiZ18aH7uQCFQAAAAAdAAAAABAF
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,568
    edited September 2019
    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
  • OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
    If Labour were still led by Ed M or had Hilary Benn as a leader I seriously doubt the poll in the header would be showing Labour on 27%.

    I get that you are passionate about Corbyn and his politics but I think you need to be a bit more realistic about where they are taking the Labour Party. All the bluster in the world about "Tory Swinson" won't disguise the fact that if the appalling Johnson wins the next GE it will be largely down to Jeremy Corbyn.
    Bozo offers prayers every night to keep Corbyn safely in position as LoTO. Corbyn offers a prayer in the other direction. They are both each others best hope for power
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,900
    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
    If Labour were still led by Ed M or had Hilary Benn as a leader I seriously doubt the poll in the header would be showing Labour on 27%.

    I get that you are passionate about Corbyn and his politics but I think you need to be a bit more realistic about where they are taking the Labour Party. All the bluster in the world about "Tory Swinson" won't disguise the fact that if the appalling Johnson wins the next GE it will be largely down to Jeremy Corbyn.
    If the so-called moderate wing of the Labour Party had shown as much passion about poverty as they have about Europe, then the Labour Party would never have elected Corbyn in the first place.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,386
    edited September 2019
    This interview with John Gray includes an interesting discussion of populism in today's politics. One of the most illuminating conversations I've heard on the subject.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7hC5nXXJrV8
  • OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
    If Labour were still led by Ed M or had Hilary Benn as a leader I seriously doubt the poll in the header would be showing Labour on 27%.

    I get that you are passionate about Corbyn and his politics but I think you need to be a bit more realistic about where they are taking the Labour Party. All the bluster in the world about "Tory Swinson" won't disguise the fact that if the appalling Johnson wins the next GE it will be largely down to Jeremy Corbyn.
    Agree completely.
  • Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    I dont like BoJo and wouldnt have him as PM. Atm the elctorate is being given the choice between shit and shite, neithers that appealing . None of the parties so far is doing much to have a vision and some policies bar Brexit yelling, though Corbyn imo is probably closest to it.

    However I think this is us watching the death of an old order, we know what is being left behind but dont yet know what will replace it. But somehing will.
    You may be correct. Let us hope that whatever replaces it is better and not worse!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited September 2019
    The best way to cool this down and have an election is for Johnson to seek the extension today and once agreed ask for a general election. But that’s not what will happen unfortunately due to someone painting themselves into a ditch with 31/10
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,453
    edited September 2019

    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
    If Labour were still led by Ed M or had Hilary Benn as a leader I seriously doubt the poll in the header would be showing Labour on 27%.

    I get that you are passionate about Corbyn and his politics but I think you need to be a bit more realistic about where they are taking the Labour Party. All the bluster in the world about "Tory Swinson" won't disguise the fact that if the appalling Johnson wins the next GE it will be largely down to Jeremy Corbyn.
    If the so-called moderate wing of the Labour Party had shown as much passion about poverty as they have about Europe, then the Labour Party would never have elected Corbyn in the first place.
    This is an excellent point. Because of some of his shortcomings and Europe and elsewhere, much of Non-Corbynite labour, and arguably even some of those joining the Liberal Democrats, show few signs of understanding yet that Corbyn did not emerge from a vacuum.
  • GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    most leaders are, thats how it works qv Corbyn
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are slow-burning scandals either side of the Atlantic that might change everything but will probably fizzle out as these things tend to.

    Trump in the Ukraine, and Boris in Arcurigate.

    Laugh at me if you will but I have a sense that there is something smelly behind the partial leaking of a note about the A-G's legal advice and the A-G's hysterical speech yesterday attacking Parliament. It felt as if he was under pressure in some way, as if he felt he needed to go over the top to prove his loyalty or to avoid any further unfortunate leaking.

    I may be completely off the ball here but something does not smell right to me.

    Whether we will ever find out or if we do it will turn into a scandal is another matter. Were I a journalist I would do some more probing.
    I think the A-G and Johnson made a deliberate decision to raise the temperature, in a dead-cat strategy to blot out discussion of the SC verdict and simply polarise opinion.
    Think Johnson and his AG. Think Trump and his AG.
    The relationship is almost the same. These two AG's appear to be servants of the administration like any other minister.
    Indeed. Odd for Cox to go along with this. He has earned very well indeed as a QC while still an MP. So he clearly has an interest in maintaining his legal career. He risks harming his reputation and integrity if he carries on like this; think Lord Goldsmith.

    His chambers btw are called Thomas More Chambers. Oh, the irony!

    Thomas More Chambers. Does he do divorce cases?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,900
    edited September 2019
    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    nichomar said:

    The best way to cool this down and have an election is for Johnson to seek the extension today and once agreed ask for a general election. But that’s not what will happen unfortunately due to someone painting themselves into a ditch with 31/10

    +1
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    Just said the same thing!
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,477
    I am interested by the debate put forward today: "General Debate on the Principles of Democracy and the Rights of the Electorate". This could go a number of ways, but it seems like a day dedicated to "People vs Parliament" campaigning.

    The issue I find is that our system has evolved with the general understanding that when governing becomes untenable, an election is called. Not all countries work this way (I mean, look at the US, where governance is highly partisan, very difficult, and often gridlocked to such a degree it has been called a "vetocracy"). Since the FTPA the power to declare an election has been taken away from the PM and given to the Commons. So when the PM is in charge of a minority government, meaning they are in a position where governance is most difficult, it is also at its least able to call an election.

    Is this a democratic deficit? I would argue not necessarily. The FTPA is a bad piece of legislation, but it was passed by duly elected MPs and is the law. Our representative democratic system is based on the idea that constituencies vote for people whose judgement they trust, not who will "fulfil the will of the people". Indeed, the "will of the people" cannot exist. You can only ever fulfil the will of some people, and even then I would argue finding a coherent and practicable political policy over a majority of people in this country is impossible. So we elect MPs to themselves act in judgement in our stead. We have the "will of the house".

    Is this perfect? No. But no system is. Is it the best it could be? I would argue not, there are many changes that would make our system of government better, most of which involve making coalitions and minority governments more likely not less (proportional voting, more political parties, less whipping etc).

    To argue now, as the AG and PM did, that this parliament has no moral authority is to attempt to annul the last election. For those opposed to the annulment of the referendum, why is the referendum democratically superior to an election? The mandate? 52/48 is not a huge mandate, even if 17.4m is the largest vote for any single issue, 16.1m is the second largest vote behind any single issue (that's what happens when the question is a binary). The Conservatives lost their majority, and therefore their ability to govern without compromise because the electorate voted. The law of the land going into that election is there would be another election in 5 years. Parliament is the place to decide if another election is held, and they currently say "not yet, out of public interest".

    This does not scream anti democracy to me. This screams complexity, difficulty, nuance and indeed, politics. What is antidemocratic is undermining the legitimacy of Parliament. That is where the current PM stands.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    I dont like BoJo and wouldnt have him as PM. Atm the elctorate is being given the choice between shit and shite, neithers that appealing . None of the parties so far is doing much to have a vision and some policies bar Brexit yelling, though Corbyn imo is probably closest to it.

    However I think this is us watching the death of an old order, we know what is being left behind but dont yet know what will replace it. But somehing will.
    You may be correct. Let us hope that whatever replaces it is better and not worse!
    you can guarantee nothing it might well be worse, but by and large the UK is a fairly sensible place Brexit aside.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    edited September 2019
    I don't think the polls currently are a good indicator of what will actually happen when the GE comes. But they probably influence the various parties's calculations on timing of the GE.

    For what it's worth, here is the EMA including the latest ComRes and Survations polls:

    Con 31.4% (-0.4) compared with previous EMA
    Lab 24.6% (-)
    LD 19.6% (+0.2)
    BXP 13.8% (+0.3)

    Average of Baxter and Flavible gives:

    Con 323 (-4)
    Lab 208 (+2)
    LD 46 (+2)

    My tactical voting model gives:

    Con 294 (-3)
    Lab 235 (+2)
    LD 52 (+1)
  • Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    PMs set the tone. Yes MPs across the house have been disgraceful. If either post Brexit PM had set a different tone they would not have.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    Spain has its own trauma in the Civil War
    Yes and it still overshadows their political life, as does WW2 elsewhere.

    Even now they are having a bitter argument about Franco's bones, despite the fact that virtually everyone who can remember the war is dead.
    I give you one word: Ireland.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    For all the contumely poured over Boris, he remains the best bet, for the country, in terms of a vaguely sensible way out of this mess.

    Swinson is going for Revoke, which will put a bomb under everything. Catastrophic..

    Corbz is going for a referendum and full-fat Marxism, which is a different kind of bomb, but another bomb nonetheless. Possibly worse than Swinson.

    Farage wants No Deal. We all know about THAT bomb.

    Which leaves us with Boris Johnson Esq. Who wants a new election, and a big majority, so he can finally push through some kind of deal (probably a tweaked and rebadged version of TMay's effort, with a NI backstop). This is the sole means to escape our nightmare without torching the country or the economy. "The best way out is always through".

    So, I put it to PB, even those who hate Boris with a passion, need to hold their noses and support him, if they love this country. Weird but true.

  • Barnesian said:

    I don't think the polls currently are a good indicator of what will actually happen when the GE comes. But they probably influence the various parties's calculations on timing of the GE.

    For what it's worth, here is the EMA including the latest ComRes and Survations polls:

    Con 31.4% (-0.4)
    Lab 24.6% (-)
    LD 19.6% (+0.2)
    BXP 13.8% (+0.3)

    Average of Baxter and Flavible gives:

    Con 323 (-4)
    Lab 208 (+2)
    LD 46 (+2)

    My tactical voting model gives:

    Con 294 (-3)
    Lab 235 (+2)
    LD 52 (+1)

    So nothing much changing and little chance of resolution. Spot on, continued purgatory for the UK it is.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are slow-burning scandals either side of the Atlantic that might change everything but will probably fizzle out as these things tend to.

    Trump in the Ukraine, and Boris in Arcurigate.

    Laugh at me if you will but I have a sense that there is something smelly behind the partial leaking of a note about the A-G's legal advice and the A-G's hysterical speech yesterday attacking Parliament. It felt as if he was under pressure in some way, as if he felt he needed to go over the top to prove his loyalty or to avoid any further unfortunate leaking.

    I may be completely off the ball here but something does not smell right to me.

    Whether we will ever find out or if we do it will turn into a scandal is another matter. Were I a journalist I would do some more probing.
    I think the A-G and Johnson made a deliberate decision to raise the temperature, in a dead-cat strategy to blot out discussion of the SC verdict and simply polarise opinion.
    Think Johnson and his AG. Think Trump and his AG.
    The relationship is almost the same. These two AG's appear to be servants of the administration like any other minister.
    Indeed. Odd for Cox to go along with this. He has earned very well indeed as a QC while still an MP. So he clearly has an interest in maintaining his legal career. He risks harming his reputation and integrity if he carries on like this; think Lord Goldsmith.

    His chambers btw are called Thomas More Chambers. Oh, the irony!

    Thomas More Chambers. Does he do divorce cases?
    Tax cases.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    edited September 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    There are slow-burning scandals either side of the Atlantic that might change everything but will probably fizzle out as these things tend to.

    Trump in the Ukraine, and Boris in Arcurigate.

    Laugh at me if you will but I have a sense that there is something smelly behind the partial leaking of a note about the A-G's legal advice and the A-G's hysterical speech yesterday attacking Parliament. It felt as if he was under pressure in some way, as if he felt he needed to go over the top to prove his loyalty or to avoid any further unfortunate leaking.

    I may be completely off the ball here but something does not smell right to me.

    Whether we will ever find out or if we do it will turn into a scandal is another matter. Were I a journalist I would do some more probing.
    I think the A-G and Johnson made a deliberate decision to raise the temperature, in a dead-cat strategy to blot out discussion of the SC verdict and simply polarise opinion.
    Think Johnson and his AG. Think Trump and his AG.
    The relationship is almost the same. These two AG's appear to be servants of the administration like any other minister.
    Indeed. Odd for Cox to go along with this. He has earned very well indeed as a QC while still an MP. So he clearly has an interest in maintaining his legal career. He risks harming his reputation and integrity if he carries on like this; think Lord Goldsmith.

    His chambers btw are called Thomas More Chambers. Oh, the irony!

    given hes almost 60 how much longer would he actually need to practice law ? Wouldnt he just cash in his millions and buy a villa somewhere ?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,795
    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,135

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.
    The only way to resolve this is with a deal. they had one but the ERG refused to vote for it because it wasn't pure enough. the opposition parties refused to vote for it because it was not 'soft' enough (and for political reasons).

    A referendum may be the only way forward to clear this up once and for all.
    1) do you accept the deal (whatever it is)
    2) if no, do you want to leave or remain in the EU
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    True. But as a leader he has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,900



    PMs set the tone. Yes MPs across the house have been disgraceful. If either post Brexit PM had set a different tone they would not have.

    Perhaps. But, I am not convinced.

    Many of the Victors of the Referendum were not magnanimous and completely failed to take on board the narrowness of the victory.

    But many of the Losers of the Referendum were also consumed with bitterness and spite.

    So, I am unconvinced.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Scott_P said:
    Verty thoughtful response to Johnson from Brendan Cox this morning, with a gentle reminder to us all, not just Boris (ex-Guardian blog report on his R4 interview):

    “I’m sure on reflection, it’s something that he would probably wish he hadn’t said. I think it was sloppy language and the wrong thing to say, but I don’t think that he is an evil man.”

    He added: “What isn’t legitimate is to co-opt her memory or her beliefs for things that she didn’t believe in or didn’t say. I was thinking about how Jo would respond to it last night. She would have tried to take a generosity of spirit to it. And thought about how in this moment, you can step back from this growing inferno of rhetoric.”

    Cox urged politicians of both sides of the Brexit debate to tone down the rhetoric used and stop portraying each other as good or evil. “We just have to have a more nuanced understanding to remember our common our common humanity,” Cox said.

    “I was genuinely shocked by the the willingness to descend to vitriol, because I think it does long lasting harm. To have this debate descend into this bear pit of polarisation, I think it’s dangerous for our country.”

    There is a willingness to jump out and decry the other side when they use language like ‘surrender’ or ‘traitor’ or ‘betrayal’. And I think that is inflammatory language. But as inflammatory are those people who have used the language of it being a ‘coup’ and ‘dictatorship’ and ‘fascism’.

    I think both of those approaches are unacceptable. It is not just bad behaviour by one side of the debate. This is something which is infected our politics, and it’s this vicious cycle where language gets more extreme, response gets more extreme, it all gets hyped up ... It creates an atmosphere where I think violence and attacks are more likely.

    You can disagree passionately with people. But you don’t have to impugn their motives, whether you are a hard Brexiteer or a hard remainer, actually, what you have in common is a desire to do what you think is best for the country.

    What isn’t acceptable is to demonize each other to build a culture of hatred to the other to create this tribal identity. Whatever happens with Brexit, the country is going to have to come together again. And we have to remember that, otherwise, we’ll be building a toxic legacy.
    Very good comment Nick. I've been lurking here as I find the discussions too polarised for my taste but I really think that somehow the Commons needs to return to some sort of rational behaviour.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,135
    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    No, but the way that most of the other 27 countries think of the EU is heavily influenced by it.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,900
    Cyclefree said:

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    True. But as a leader he has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.
    This is not Eton. We are not a group of school children looking up to Head Boy.

    We all have to take responsibility for our actions.
  • Byronic said:

    For all the contumely poured over Boris, he remains the best bet, for the country, in terms of a vaguely sensible way out of this mess.

    Swinson is going for Revoke, which will put a bomb under everything. Catastrophic..

    Corbz is going for a referendum and full-fat Marxism, which is a different kind of bomb, but another bomb nonetheless. Possibly worse than Swinson.

    Farage wants No Deal. We all know about THAT bomb.

    Which leaves us with Boris Johnson Esq. Who wants a new election, and a big majority, so he can finally push through some kind of deal (probably a tweaked and rebadged version of TMay's effort, with a NI backstop). This is the sole means to escape our nightmare without torching the country or the economy. "The best way out is always through".

    So, I put it to PB, even those who hate Boris with a passion, need to hold their noses and support him, if they love this country. Weird but true.

    He hasnt got any deal that he is even proposing. You are just projecting what you consider an acceptable outcome as "his deal". That is what a bluffing salesman does, make you think you are getting what you want, even if he only has a shit sandwich available.

    At least when May spoke of no deal, it was as a potential outcome instead of her deal. With Boris he simply doesnt have any deal to put forward, hence no deal.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    Try a trip to Poland. Last time I was there I got accused of murdering General Sikorski.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 9,061
    Byronic said:

    For all the contumely poured over Boris, he remains the best bet, for the country, in terms of a vaguely sensible way out of this mess.

    Swinson is going for Revoke, which will put a bomb under everything. Catastrophic..

    Corbz is going for a referendum and full-fat Marxism, which is a different kind of bomb, but another bomb nonetheless. Possibly worse than Swinson.

    Farage wants No Deal. We all know about THAT bomb.

    Which leaves us with Boris Johnson Esq. Who wants a new election, and a big majority, so he can finally push through some kind of deal (probably a tweaked and rebadged version of TMay's effort, with a NI backstop). This is the sole means to escape our nightmare without torching the country or the economy. "The best way out is always through".

    So, I put it to PB, even those who hate Boris with a passion, need to hold their noses and support him, if they love this country. Weird but true.

    What kind of timetable do you have in mind for Johnson's strategy, given that he is adamant he won't extend?


  • PMs set the tone. Yes MPs across the house have been disgraceful. If either post Brexit PM had set a different tone they would not have.

    Perhaps. But, I am not convinced.

    Many of the Victors of the Referendum were not magnanimous and completely failed to take on board the narrowness of the victory.

    But many of the Losers of the Referendum were also consumed with bitterness and spite.

    So, I am unconvinced.
    I am not saying it would be perfect, of course it wouldnt, but we wouldnt be here either, and we would have left.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584
    edited September 2019
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    To nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    Simple error. They don't go on about it so much, because they either feel the guilt of atrocity (e.g. Germany) or the shame of defeat (e.g. France).

    It's still a huge brooding presence in national psyches across the Channel. Notice how the EU rolls up the continental sleeve to show the scars of war, whenever Brits ask why we need the EU in the first place.

    Brits bang on about WW2 openly, whereas others whisper and mutter, because we won it, and we are very proud that we won it.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament with Labour as the minority government. The consequence is a CU based deal with the EU, followed by a referendum (deal versus remain), followed by revoke. So we would not be back to square one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,386
    Johnson has said two things: he won't extend and he won't break the law. That can only mean Corbyn in Downing Street to request an extension if Johnson can't get the deal he wants in time.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,946
    OllyT said:

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
    If Labour were still led by Ed M or had Hilary Benn as a leader I seriously doubt the poll in the header would be showing Labour on 27%.

    I get that you are passionate about Corbyn and his politics but I think you need to be a bit more realistic about where they are taking the Labour Party. All the bluster in the world about "Tory Swinson" won't disguise the fact that if the appalling Johnson wins the next GE it will be largely down to Jeremy Corbyn.
    I think Tories will get it based purely on being the least of all the evils
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    Scott_P said:
    a KFO to follow no doubt, why Bercow fans the flames is anyones guess.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Cyclefree said:

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    True. But as a leader he has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.
    Hmph. The Speaker controls the behaviour in the House and it is up to him to call a halt to this stupidity. He can name mambers, suspend individuals, or even the sitting to let tempers cool but he won't.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    Most MPs have been doing their earnest best. Doing what they think is right for the country and their constituencies. That counts for all parties and on both sides of the Brexit debate. Even where they have strong opinions, their motive is usually noble.
    There are a few who have sought to undermine the mechanisms of our democracy for personal gain. They are few in number, dangerous, and deserving of special consideration. Don't let them hide in amongst the masses.
    Johnson and Raab are two in particular. Both decided that shutting to parliament illegally would serve them in their ambition to become PM or remain PM. That is orders of magnitude worse than merely being pugnacious.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    edited September 2019
    Everyone has decided that THEIR side winning is the most important, and pretty much only priority right now.

    It all follows from that really.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321
    spudgfsh said:

    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:



    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    No, but the way that most of the other 27 countries think of the EU is heavily influenced by it.
    The problem is that the way Britain thinks of it is based on a misunderstanding of our own history. So the big myth about Britain fighting alone against the forces of evil.

    Balls. We were not alone. We largely overlook the contribution of Polish airmen, for instance, to the Battle of Britain. So we overestimate our ability to cope on our own and forget that most of what we've achieved in our history has been in conjunction with our friends and allies.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    For all the contumely poured over Boris, he remains the best bet, for the country, in terms of a vaguely sensible way out of this mess.

    Swinson is going for Revoke, which will put a bomb under everything. Catastrophic..

    Corbz is going for a referendum and full-fat Marxism, which is a different kind of bomb, but another bomb nonetheless. Possibly worse than Swinson.

    Farage wants No Deal. We all know about THAT bomb.

    Which leaves us with Boris Johnson Esq. Who wants a new election, and a big majority, so he can finally push through some kind of deal (probably a tweaked and rebadged version of TMay's effort, with a NI backstop). This is the sole means to escape our nightmare without torching the country or the economy. "The best way out is always through".

    So, I put it to PB, even those who hate Boris with a passion, need to hold their noses and support him, if they love this country. Weird but true.

    He hasnt got any deal that he is even proposing. You are just projecting what you consider an acceptable outcome as "his deal". That is what a bluffing salesman does, make you think you are getting what you want, even if he only has a shit sandwich available.

    At least when May spoke of no deal, it was as a potential outcome instead of her deal. With Boris he simply doesnt have any deal to put forward, hence no deal.
    We all know what kind of deal Boris is aiming for, it's going to be very close to TMay's deal, with the backstop restricted to NI. The EU has confirmed this.

    He needs a decent majority to ram this through, above the protests of the ERG idiots, and shorn of a need to please the BXPers.

    So we all need to vote for him, even if we despise him. True story.
  • spudgfsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.
    The only way to resolve this is with a deal. they had one but the ERG refused to vote for it because it wasn't pure enough. the opposition parties refused to vote for it because it was not 'soft' enough (and for political reasons).

    A referendum may be the only way forward to clear this up once and for all.
    1) do you accept the deal (whatever it is)
    2) if no, do you want to leave or remain in the EU
    The clear resolutions are:

    1) Soft Brexit deal - Requires MPs to vote independently rather than by party. Very unlikely but the conditions are getting closer to it becoming plausible.
    2) Referendum

    A GE is an alternative and could work but probably wont.

    Sadly most likely is ongoing paralysis and division for another couple of years.
  • The crucial point from this projection: the Lib Dems have an easier pathway to 100 seats than BXP do to 3, or the Greens to 2.

    http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177140630348292096
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    Noo said:

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    Most MPs have been doing their earnest best. Doing what they think is right for the country and their constituencies. That counts for all parties and on both sides of the Brexit debate. Even where they have strong opinions, their motive is usually noble.
    There are a few who have sought to undermine the mechanisms of our democracy for personal gain. They are few in number, dangerous, and deserving of special consideration. Don't let them hide in amongst the masses.
    Johnson and Raab are two in particular. Both decided that shutting to parliament illegally would serve them in their ambition to become PM or remain PM. That is orders of magnitude worse than merely being pugnacious.
    If they are doing their earnest best then why is the House becoming a cage fight ?

    As a group they are ineffective and not serving the country or their constituents.
  • The crucial point from this projection: the Lib Dems have an easier pathway to 100 seats than BXP do to 3, or the Greens to 2.

    http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177140630348292096

    Is this part of the remainer elite conspiracy?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321

    Cyclefree said:

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    True. But as a leader he has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.
    This is not Eton. We are not a group of school children looking up to Head Boy.

    We all have to take responsibility for our actions.
    Of course we do.

    As must Boris as the PM. He has a special responsibility as the leader of his party and as PM. He is failing in that.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,386
    Barnesian said:

    I don't think the polls currently are a good indicator of what will actually happen when the GE comes. But they probably influence the various parties's calculations on timing of the GE.

    For what it's worth, here is the EMA including the latest ComRes and Survations polls:

    Con 31.4% (-0.4) compared with previous EMA
    Lab 24.6% (-)
    LD 19.6% (+0.2)
    BXP 13.8% (+0.3)

    Average of Baxter and Flavible gives:

    Con 323 (-4)
    Lab 208 (+2)
    LD 46 (+2)

    My tactical voting model gives:

    Con 294 (-3)
    Lab 235 (+2)
    LD 52 (+1)

    How does your tactical model work? How is it calculated.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,697
    edited September 2019
    Blue_rog said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    True. But as a leader he has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.
    Hmph. The Speaker controls the behaviour in the House and it is up to him to call a halt to this stupidity. He can name mambers, suspend individuals, or even the sitting to let tempers cool but he won't.
    That is an interesting comment - is there a difference in the level of vitriol MPs address each other with if it is the Speaker or Deputy Speaker in the chair?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    The crucial point from this projection: the Lib Dems have an easier pathway to 100 seats than BXP do to 3, or the Greens to 2.

    http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177140630348292096

    That would likely be a Tory NOM govt, with a referendum as the price. Swinson won't touch Corbz, and Corbz won't budge.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321
    Blue_rog said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Noo said:

    Nigelb said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Which is one reason they are not fit to be in government.
    How is Johnson now any different ?
    Johnson isn't any different.

    What is not true is Johnson is a serpent and the House of Commons is the Garden of Eden.

    Johnson is a serpent, and the House of Commons is a den of snakes.
    There are many good MPs who wouldn't dream of acting like Boris has. Don't normalise his behaviour. He is clearly an outlier in many ways.
    I don't think you can't look at Boris' behaviour in isolation. It needs to be seen through the prism of the last 3 years.

    As pb discussed yesterday, very, very few MPs have enhanced their reputation over the last 3 years.

    It was a disgraceful performance in the Commons yesterday. I am sure it will be disgraceful today and tomorrow as well.

    But, the disgrace is not just due to one person. Many, many MPs have behaved disgracefully.
    True. But as a leader he has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.
    Hmph. The Speaker controls the behaviour in the House and it is up to him to call a halt to this stupidity. He can name mambers, suspend individuals, or even the sitting to let tempers cool but he won't.
    Fair point. He can be criticised too.
  • Barnesian said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament with Labour as the minority government. The consequence is a CU based deal with the EU, followed by a referendum (deal versus remain), followed by revoke. So we would not be back to square one.
    I am not sure Labour minority govt is clear cut simply because it is a hung parliament. There are Labour leave rebels just as the Tory party has rebels. There are obvious tensions with Labour & SNP/LDs. The Labour leadership is not particularly capable of organisation. Referendum if it happens does not equal revoke, leave is perfectly plausible. You are being optimistic.
  • Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    To nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    Simple error. They don't go on about it so much, because they either feel the guilt of atrocity (e.g. Germany) or the shame of defeat (e.g. France).

    It's still a huge brooding presence in national psyches across the Channel. Notice how the EU rolls up the continental sleeve to show the scars of war, whenever Brits ask why we need the EU in the first place.

    Brits bang on about WW2 openly, whereas others whisper and mutter, because we won it, and we are very proud that we won it.
    The mythical UK-US trade deal often seems to be treated as the equivalent of bringing America into the war against the EU.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,279
    One of the complaints is that MPs have been deliberately weakening the government's negotiating hand by telling Brussels not to worry about no deal because they will stop it. Is that actually true? Do people have evidence for it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    Andy_JS said:

    Johnson has said two things: he won't extend and he won't break the law. That can only mean Corbyn in Downing Street to request an extension if Johnson can't get the deal he wants in time.

    "So Mr Johnson, why did you let Corbyn into No 10"

    "First up, I did not recommend a succesor to the Queen, but as is our constitutional way the Leader of the Opposition no matter how reprehensible is called first to attempt to form a Government as is right and proper in the constitution. And I am now the LoTO because I said I will not sign that surrender bill, and I will not break the law. I have remained true to my word and true to my principles."
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    Cyclefree said:

    spudgfsh said:

    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:



    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    No, but the way that most of the other 27 countries think of the EU is heavily influenced by it.
    The problem is that the way Britain thinks of it is based on a misunderstanding of our own history. So the big myth about Britain fighting alone against the forces of evil.

    Balls. We were not alone. We largely overlook the contribution of Polish airmen, for instance, to the Battle of Britain. So we overestimate our ability to cope on our own and forget that most of what we've achieved in our history has been in conjunction with our friends and allies.
    In 1940 we were alone, the contibution of Free forces while noteworthy didnt save the country. We didnt win the war either, we were simply on the winning side. the USSR did most of the dying and the USA most of the financing. Our contribution was probably providing most of the jump off points for freeing Western Europe.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,900

    spudgfsh said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.
    The only way to resolve this is with a deal. they had one but the ERG refused to vote for it because it wasn't pure enough. the opposition parties refused to vote for it because it was not 'soft' enough (and for political reasons).

    A referendum may be the only way forward to clear this up once and for all.
    1) do you accept the deal (whatever it is)
    2) if no, do you want to leave or remain in the EU
    The clear resolutions are:

    1) Soft Brexit deal - Requires MPs to vote independently rather than by party. Very unlikely but the conditions are getting closer to it becoming plausible.
    2) Referendum

    A GE is an alternative and could work but probably wont.

    Sadly most likely is ongoing paralysis and division for another couple of years.
    A GE will probably work.

    First, It will produce at least one loser. Corby will go if he doesn't advance. Bojo will go if he loses 40+ seats. And they both could lose their seats in such an unpredictable election. That will break the logjam in the parties.

    Second, even if it produces a hung Parliament like now, the message from the electorate is we are not giving a mandate for Revoke or No Deal. You need to come up with a compromise. It allows MPs to row back from their extreme position. We asked the electorate, and they gave an answer and we must now implement the answer by compromise.

    Third, it could give Boris a majority (possible but unlikely IMO), and then he get get on and do what he wants with his mandate.

    The present prolonging of a Parliament that has no stable configuration is not in the interests of anyone, other than a few vicariously cruel individuals.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited September 2019

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    Indeed. We have a poster saying he didnt threaten MPs lives. Oh well, everything must be hunky dory then.

    What previous PM or any public figure, has the line of decency set at not threatening to kill MPs?
    Mcdonnell recently and publicly calling for a lynching, Corbyn with his choice of mates who murdered both MPs and ordinary UK citizens
    Want to try again on that one?

  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380

    If they are doing their earnest best then why is the House becoming a cage fight ?

    As a group they are ineffective and not serving the country or their constituents.

    I think yesterday's rhetoric from Boris and the AG was deeply irresponsible, divisive and damaging. But cage fight? Come off it.
  • Cyclefree said:

    spudgfsh said:

    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:



    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    No, but the way that most of the other 27 countries think of the EU is heavily influenced by it.
    The problem is that the way Britain thinks of it is based on a misunderstanding of our own history. So the big myth about Britain fighting alone against the forces of evil.

    Balls. We were not alone. We largely overlook the contribution of Polish airmen, for instance, to the Battle of Britain. So we overestimate our ability to cope on our own and forget that most of what we've achieved in our history has been in conjunction with our friends and allies.
    In 1940 we were alone, the contibution of Free forces while noteworthy didnt save the country. We didnt win the war either, we were simply on the winning side. the USSR did most of the dying and the USA most of the financing. Our contribution was probably providing most of the jump off points for freeing Western Europe.
    The “we” of 1940 was not the “we” of 2019.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,135
    Byronic said:

    The crucial point from this projection: the Lib Dems have an easier pathway to 100 seats than BXP do to 3, or the Greens to 2.

    http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177140630348292096

    That would likely be a Tory NOM govt, with a referendum as the price. Swinson won't touch Corbz, and Corbz won't budge.
    it'll be a C&S if anything at all.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Barnesian said:

    GIN1138 said:

    TGOHF2 said:

    One thing missing from last nights debate was any new ideas on a resolution to Brexit.

    Indeed. We had screaming, shouting, applause and outrage. We had tears and tantrums. We had Boris baiting his opponents with offensive rhetoric. We had posturing and leaders of the Opposition running scared from the electorate.

    But what we didn't have was any ideas for how we actually get through the impasse.

    A general election remains the clear and obvious way out following an extension to Dec or Jan 31st.

    Boris should just write the letter now and lets get on with it.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.
    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament with Labour as the minority government. The consequence is a CU based deal with the EU, followed by a referendum (deal versus remain), followed by revoke. So we would not be back to square one.
    I am not sure Labour minority govt is clear cut simply because it is a hung parliament. There are Labour leave rebels just as the Tory party has rebels. There are obvious tensions with Labour & SNP/LDs. The Labour leadership is not particularly capable of organisation. Referendum if it happens does not equal revoke, leave is perfectly plausible. You are being optimistic.
    There will never be a Labour NOM govt, not while Corbyn is there. His policies are insane. OK he won't be able to force most of them through, but just allying with him would horribly contaminate any other party. Not going to happen.

    If Corbyn went after an equivocal election, then yes all things become possible. But why would he go if he sees a slender chance of being premier?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,038
    OllyT said:



    If Labour were still led by Ed M or had Hilary Benn as a leader I seriously doubt the poll in the header would be showing Labour on 27%.

    I get that you are passionate about Corbyn and his politics but I think you need to be a bit more realistic about where they are taking the Labour Party. All the bluster in the world about "Tory Swinson" won't disguise the fact that if the appalling Johnson wins the next GE it will be largely down to Jeremy Corbyn.

    Like Mike I'm wary of hypothetical polling, but the polling we've seen with alternative leaders doesn't bear out what you say. Brexit and personal affections for this or that politician aside, lefitsh people who want moderation go LibDem and leftish people who want radical change go Labour. Brexit complicates it since it's the LibDems who are the wild-eyed radicals and Labour the waffly moderates, but I'm not convinced that the polling would look very different if we had any specific leader (once they'd been through the customary "Here's a picture of you with evil person X in 1989" media mauling).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    For all the contumely poured over Boris, he remains the best bet, for the country, in terms of a vaguely sensible way out of this mess.

    Swinson is going for Revoke, which will put a bomb under everything. Catastrophic..

    Corbz is going for a referendum and full-fat Marxism, which is a different kind of bomb, but another bomb nonetheless. Possibly worse than Swinson.

    Farage wants No Deal. We all know about THAT bomb.

    Which leaves us with Boris Johnson Esq. Who wants a new election, and a big majority, so he can finally push through some kind of deal (probably a tweaked and rebadged version of TMay's effort, with a NI backstop). This is the sole means to escape our nightmare without torching the country or the economy. "The best way out is always through".

    So, I put it to PB, even those who hate Boris with a passion, need to hold their noses and support him, if they love this country. Weird but true.

    He hasnt got any deal that he is even proposing. You are just projecting what you consider an acceptable outcome as "his deal". That is what a bluffing salesman does, make you think you are getting what you want, even if he only has a shit sandwich available.

    At least when May spoke of no deal, it was as a potential outcome instead of her deal. With Boris he simply doesnt have any deal to put forward, hence no deal.
    We all know what kind of deal Boris is aiming for, it's going to be very close to TMay's deal, with the backstop restricted to NI. The EU has confirmed this.

    He needs a decent majority to ram this through, above the protests of the ERG idiots, and shorn of a need to please the BXPers.

    So we all need to vote for him, even if we despise him. True story.

    He is not aiming for any sort of deal. He has put forward no proposals. He has no negotiation strategy.

    Or have I missed something?
  • Cyclefree said:

    spudgfsh said:

    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:



    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    No, but the way that most of the other 27 countries think of the EU is heavily influenced by it.
    The problem is that the way Britain thinks of it is based on a misunderstanding of our own history. So the big myth about Britain fighting alone against the forces of evil.

    Balls. We were not alone. We largely overlook the contribution of Polish airmen, for instance, to the Battle of Britain. So we overestimate our ability to cope on our own and forget that most of what we've achieved in our history has been in conjunction with our friends and allies.
    The film Battle of Britain includes a Polish squadron. There is also the more recent Squadron 303 film, and exhibits at the Imperial War Museum and iirc the RAF museum.
    Repeat please!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXf1bhEEXd0
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,251
    Cyclefree said:

    As a leader [Boris] has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.

    The PM also has a duty to reflect the national mood. We expect it at times of national joy, we expect it at times of national grieving. So why not now, when that national mood is one of seething anger at our elected officials? Our collective opinion of elected officials has never been lower. They have lied to their electors, they have refused to undertake the largest political project this country has ever told them to do. And now they refuse to be brought to account for that failure by their employers. Any other employee behaving like this would be dismissed on the spot.

    For supposedly smart people, our political class don't have the collective nous of a brick. That the PM reminded them of this was entirely right. That they chose to be monstrously offended rather than take on board some home truths just demonstrates why they need to be replaced. En masse.

  • Andy_JS said:

    Johnson has said two things: he won't extend and he won't break the law. That can only mean Corbyn in Downing Street to request an extension if Johnson can't get the deal he wants in time.

    He's also said that he will unite his party and the country and defeat Corbyn.

    He's already gone back on the first of those. You suggest he will go back on the second - but he might decide not to stick to one of his other promises instead. You can't easily predict which promise he will break.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,135

    The crucial point from this projection: the Lib Dems have an easier pathway to 100 seats than BXP do to 3, or the Greens to 2.

    http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177140630348292096

    the problem is the lack of uniformness in the swing which gets in the way of these being truly informative. what this (and electoral calculus) need is a level of confidence on each seat and on the number of seats.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    spudgfsh said:

    Byronic said:

    The crucial point from this projection: the Lib Dems have an easier pathway to 100 seats than BXP do to 3, or the Greens to 2.

    http://twitter.com/flaviblePolitic/status/1177140630348292096

    That would likely be a Tory NOM govt, with a referendum as the price. Swinson won't touch Corbz, and Corbz won't budge.
    it'll be a C&S if anything at all.
    Yes. Quite possible.

    Labourites blithely presume that the obedient Libs will jump into bed with them, and let Labour govern. This really isn't going to happen when the other person in the bed is the grinning magic grandpa, naked apart from the string vest of Marxism, exposing the hairy boner of Abolish the Public Schools.

    You can have that image for free, to keep in your head forever.
  • Byronic said:

    theakes said:

    Johnson is an eccentric, he can get away with things for a time that others cannot, but it does not take long for the others he hurts, offends or humiliates to coalesce around a respected figure and he is gone, probably to the equivalent of St Helena!!!.

    Johnson's super power is his total absence of shame. It only means that when he is brought down it will be truly spectacular.
    That's another thing he has in common with Trump. I guess it's a strategic advantage in a polarized environment because when people are in tribal mode they'll go a long way to support and believe extreme things for their tribe, so you have a competitive advantage if you're prepared to take them further and faster than the next guy.
    Again, it's simply not true. There are plenty of examples of Boris looking and acting regretful and mortified. His friends say he is hurt by some of the more personal stuff.

    What he is, though, is cunningly ambitious. So he is learning to NOT be ashamed. To just butch it out. It might be handy for him in coming days.
    He may be learning not to look ashamed, but the shame will still be there, eating away malignantly at his already shrivelled soul.

    Hopefully.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    Cyclefree said:

    As a leader [Boris] has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.

    The PM also has a duty to reflect the national mood. We expect it at times of national joy, we expect it at times of national grieving. So why not now, when that national mood is one of seething anger at our elected officials? Our collective opinion of elected officials has never been lower. They have lied to their electors, they have refused to undertake the largest political project this country has ever told them to do. And now they refuse to be brought to account for that failure by their employers. Any other employee behaving like this would be dismissed on the spot.

    For supposedly smart people, our political class don't have the collective nous of a brick. That the PM reminded them of this was entirely right. That they chose to be monstrously offended rather than take on board some home truths just demonstrates why they need to be replaced. En masse.

    Post of the year for me
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,308
    edited September 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Barnesian said:

    I don't think the polls currently are a good indicator of what will actually happen when the GE comes. But they probably influence the various parties's calculations on timing of the GE.

    For what it's worth, here is the EMA including the latest ComRes and Survations polls:

    Con 31.4% (-0.4) compared with previous EMA
    Lab 24.6% (-)
    LD 19.6% (+0.2)
    BXP 13.8% (+0.3)

    Average of Baxter and Flavible gives:

    Con 323 (-4)
    Lab 208 (+2)
    LD 46 (+2)

    My tactical voting model gives:

    Con 294 (-3)
    Lab 235 (+2)
    LD 52 (+1)

    How does your tactical model work? How is it calculated.
    It is for England and Wales only. I use Baxter plus Flavible for Scotland (SNP 50 seats).

    It is constituency based and uses a basic combination of arithmetic (UNS) and multiplicative swing in the ratio of 75/25.

    It assumes that 40% of the Green votes goes to Labour and 40% to LDs and 20% stays with Green (in line with latest YouGov poll on this question).

    It assumes that in constituencies where Lab were behind LDs, 45% of Lab vote tactically for LDs.

    In constituencies where LD had less than 30% of the Lab vote, 35% of LDs vote tactically for Lab. (The 45% and 35% are from recent YouGov poll on tactical voting. The 30% reflects LDs not voting tactically if they feel LD have a chance of overtaking Lab in that constituency).

    Any BXP seats are assumed to be Tory.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321

    Cyclefree said:

    spudgfsh said:

    OllyT said:

    Byronic said:

    OllyT said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:



    The idea that everybody else, apart from us, has "moved on from WW2" is poignantly ridiculous.

    Anyone who travels anywhere can confirm that the Second World War, and its legacy, absolutely dominates discourse and mindsets in Germany (guilt), Russia (pain, pride), Poland (pain, anger), Israel (of course), the Baltic States (pain, fear), and so on. It is often hidden in other issues, but it is always there.

    It's easier to pick the countries where it isn't a national trauma. Spain. Portugal. Switzerland.

    Even Japan and America are, to some extent, still living in the shadow. Which is understandable, it was the worst and greatest war in history, the greatest crime ever committed, and it gave birth to nuclear bombs. It is arguably the most pivotal moment in the human story.
    I disagree, nobody bangs on about WW2 in the way many Brits do.
    No, but the way that most of the other 27 countries think of the EU is heavily influenced by it.
    The problem is that the way Britain thinks of it is based on a misunderstanding of our own history. So the big myth about Britain fighting alone against the forces of evil.

    Balls. We were not alone. We largely overlook the contribution of Polish airmen, for instance, to the Battle of Britain. So we overestimate our ability to cope on our own and forget that most of what we've achieved in our history has been in conjunction with our friends and allies.
    In 1940 we were alone, the contibution of Free forces while noteworthy didnt save the country. We didnt win the war either, we were simply on the winning side. the USSR did most of the dying and the USA most of the financing. Our contribution was probably providing most of the jump off points for freeing Western Europe.
    We had our Empire behind us in 1940. It was not plucky Britain standing alone. We have mythologised our role in WW2 and it is skewing our perceptions of our standing in the world. Britain has achieved much in history but more often than not it has been as a result of working with friends and allies.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited September 2019
    Blue_rog said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a leader [Boris] has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.

    The PM also has a duty to reflect the national mood. We expect it at times of national joy, we expect it at times of national grieving. So why not now, when that national mood is one of seething anger at our elected officials? Our collective opinion of elected officials has never been lower. They have lied to their electors, they have refused to undertake the largest political project this country has ever told them to do. And now they refuse to be brought to account for that failure by their employers. Any other employee behaving like this would be dismissed on the spot.

    For supposedly smart people, our political class don't have the collective nous of a brick. That the PM reminded them of this was entirely right. That they chose to be monstrously offended rather than take on board some home truths just demonstrates why they need to be replaced. En masse.

    Post of the year for me
    Gosh that was also my 2000th post :)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,279
    To Brexiteers - serious question.

    What would be wrong with an NI only backstop?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Blue_rog said:

    Cyclefree said:

    As a leader [Boris] has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.

    The PM also has a duty to reflect the national mood. We expect it at times of national joy, we expect it at times of national grieving. So why not now, when that national mood is one of seething anger at our elected officials? Our collective opinion of elected officials has never been lower. They have lied to their electors, they have refused to undertake the largest political project this country has ever told them to do. And now they refuse to be brought to account for that failure by their employers. Any other employee behaving like this would be dismissed on the spot.

    For supposedly smart people, our political class don't have the collective nous of a brick. That the PM reminded them of this was entirely right. That they chose to be monstrously offended rather than take on board some home truths just demonstrates why they need to be replaced. En masse.

    Post of the year for me
    +1
  • Andy_JS said:

    Johnson has said two things: he won't extend and he won't break the law. That can only mean Corbyn in Downing Street to request an extension if Johnson can't get the deal he wants in time.

    He's also said that he will unite his party and the country and defeat Corbyn.

    He's already gone back on the first of those. You suggest he will go back on the second - but he might decide not to stick to one of his other promises instead. You can't easily predict which promise he will break.
    No. There is a paradox. Boris needs Corbyn to head a minority government for a couple of weeks to extend Article 50 and call the election. This allows Boris to remain Tory leader and fight and win (he believes) as champion of the people against the Establishment. Boris fears that message will be undermined if he calls the election himself, and he will leak votes and seats to BXP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,992

    spudgfsh said:



    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.

    The only way to resolve this is with a deal. they had one but the ERG refused to vote for it because it wasn't pure enough. the opposition parties refused to vote for it because it was not 'soft' enough (and for political reasons).

    A referendum may be the only way forward to clear this up once and for all.
    1) do you accept the deal (whatever it is)
    2) if no, do you want to leave or remain in the EU
    The clear resolutions are:

    1) Soft Brexit deal - Requires MPs to vote independently rather than by party. Very unlikely but the conditions are getting closer to it becoming plausible.
    2) Referendum

    A GE is an alternative and could work but probably wont.

    Sadly most likely is ongoing paralysis and division for another couple of years.
    A GE will probably work.

    First, It will produce at least one loser. Corby will go if he doesn't advance. Bojo will go if he loses 40+ seats. And they both could lose their seats in such an unpredictable election. That will break the logjam in the parties.

    Second, even if it produces a hung Parliament like now, the message from the electorate is we are not giving a mandate for Revoke or No Deal. You need to come up with a compromise. It allows MPs to row back from their extreme position. We asked the electorate, and they gave an answer and we must now implement the answer by compromise.

    Third, it could give Boris a majority (possible but unlikely IMO), and then he get get on and do what he wants with his mandate.

    The present prolonging of a Parliament that has no stable configuration is not in the interests of anyone, other than a few vicariously cruel individuals.
    Strangely enough, I agree with you.
    I'd previously advocated, back in the halcyon days of May, for some kind of referendum to break the impasse, but that is clearly impossible. Parliament wouldn't begin to be able to agree on the question(s) to put.

    All sides are claiming to be speaking for 'the public', and that clearly can't be true. A fresh election would at least give a real indication of where the electorate now is.

    But it's not going to happen until the issue of no deal on 31st Oct is fully resolved.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    To Brexiteers - serious question.

    What would be wrong with an NI only backstop?

    I think a sizeable majority of the country - Leave AND Remain - would take this in a heartbeat, if it got us out of this endless and dreadful nightmare.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    To Brexiteers - serious question.

    What would be wrong with an NI only backstop?

    It's a de facto annexation of part of our territory. No PM could agree to hand over part of the UK to a foreign power
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463

    I'm not really taking any real notice of opinion polls at all at the moment. By the time of any election, events will have moved on so substantially that current polls will have little meaning.

    Wise words.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    @HYUFD and @Byronic are right (pause...gasp...).

    Boris might well want an NI-only backstop. Thing is, how the fuckety fuck does he get there?

    He has blown whatever trust he might once have had.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463
    GIN1138 said:

    Boris meeting with 1922 at 11:30? Wonder what they'll be talking about... ;)


    Emergency structural repairs to Sir Graham Brady Old Lady’s mailbox?
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Blue_rog said:

    To Brexiteers - serious question.

    What would be wrong with an NI only backstop?

    It's a de facto annexation of part of our territory. No PM could agree to hand over part of the UK to a foreign power
    No, it is nothing of the sort. What absolute garbage.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,321

    Cyclefree said:

    As a leader [Boris] has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.

    The PM also has a duty to reflect the national mood. We expect it at times of national joy, we expect it at times of national grieving. So why not now, when that national mood is one of seething anger at our elected officials? Our collective opinion of elected officials has never been lower. They have lied to their electors, they have refused to undertake the largest political project this country has ever told them to do. And now they refuse to be brought to account for that failure by their employers. Any other employee behaving like this would be dismissed on the spot.

    For supposedly smart people, our political class don't have the collective nous of a brick. That the PM reminded them of this was entirely right. That they chose to be monstrously offended rather than take on board some home truths just demonstrates why they need to be replaced. En masse.

    No, the PM does not have that duty. He has the duty to lead. That means trying to overcome divisions not create them. It means working out a destination and persuading / showing / motivating people to understand what it is and how to get there. It means creating a space where disagreements can be resolved or got over and compromises reached. That is what politics is about and it is more important than ever following a binary referendum.

    He is doing none of that. He is deliberately speaking to a small group. He is enhancing division rather than trying to unify and heal. He is shutting out rather than reaching out. He refuses to show empathy for his opponents but feels immensely sorry for himself. He refuses to accept that he might be wrong. He is not big enough or mature enough to apologise. He threatens those who stand in his way or who won't do what he wants.

    These are not the qualities of good leaders.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Nigelb said:

    spudgfsh said:



    A GE is odds on to produce another hung parliament. How is it a clear and obvious solution? The betting markets suggest it might give a solution about 20-30% of the time, the rest of the time we are back to square one.

    The only way to resolve this is with a deal. they had one but the ERG refused to vote for it because it wasn't pure enough. the opposition parties refused to vote for it because it was not 'soft' enough (and for political reasons).

    A referendum may be the only way forward to clear this up once and for all.
    1) do you accept the deal (whatever it is)
    2) if no, do you want to leave or remain in the EU
    The clear resolutions are:

    1) Soft Brexit deal - Requires MPs to vote independently rather than by party. Very unlikely but the conditions are getting closer to it becoming plausible.
    2) Referendum

    A GE is an alternative and could work but probably wont.

    Sadly most likely is ongoing paralysis and division for another couple of years.
    A GE will probably work.

    First, It will produce at least one loser. Corby will go if he doesn't advance. Bojo will go if he loses 40+ seats. And they both could lose their seats in such an unpredictable election. That will break the logjam in the parties.

    Second, even if it produces a hung Parliament like now, the message from the electorate is we are not giving a mandate for Revoke or No Deal. You need to come up with a compromise. It allows MPs to row back from their extreme position. We asked the electorate, and they gave an answer and we must now implement the answer by compromise.

    Third, it could give Boris a majority (possible but unlikely IMO), and then he get get on and do what he wants with his mandate.

    The present prolonging of a Parliament that has no stable configuration is not in the interests of anyone, other than a few vicariously cruel individuals.
    Strangely enough, I agree with you.
    I'd previously advocated, back in the halcyon days of May, for some kind of referendum to break the impasse, but that is clearly impossible. Parliament wouldn't begin to be able to agree on the question(s) to put.

    All sides are claiming to be speaking for 'the public', and that clearly can't be true. A fresh election would at least give a real indication of where the electorate now is.

    But it's not going to happen until the issue of no deal on 31st Oct is fully resolved.
    Can't wait just to move onto the election phase.
  • TGOHF2TGOHF2 Posts: 584

    Cyclefree said:

    As a leader [Boris] has a special responsibility. And he is failing in that. The buck stops with him.

    The PM also has a duty to reflect the national mood. We expect it at times of national joy, we expect it at times of national grieving. So why not now, when that national mood is one of seething anger at our elected officials? Our collective opinion of elected officials has never been lower. They have lied to their electors, they have refused to undertake the largest political project this country has ever told them to do. And now they refuse to be brought to account for that failure by their employers. Any other employee behaving like this would be dismissed on the spot.

    For supposedly smart people, our political class don't have the collective nous of a brick. That the PM reminded them of this was entirely right. That they chose to be monstrously offended rather than take on board some home truths just demonstrates why they need to be replaced. En masse.

    CLAPS !

This discussion has been closed.