Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiar

2456789

Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,979
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    80 from the Tories, plus the other 21.

    Another 100 from Labour.

    Plus the half dozen independents.

    Liberal Democrats largest party and Jo Swinson heads a temporary government, revokes Brexit and we can have an election with the time pressure off.

    Yes, yes I can see the problems, but in the vanishingly unlikely event it happened it would probably be the best way out of this disaster.

    Have a good morning.
    Revoke doesn't settle the Brexit - it would be the focus point of the next election with real anger involved from the Brexiter side.

    The only way to settle Brexit is a second referendum - which scarily shows that Corbyn is actually right for once.

    Nope. Nothing settles Brexit. We just live in a new post-23 June reality.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,685
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    I don’t agree. Why should he have compromised if May did not?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,943
    edited September 2019
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,917
    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.

    Neither will.

    TheSAJ is in the biggest job he will ever have.

    Gove clearly has no love for BoZo, but bringing him down probably dooms Brexit, which Gove does seem to believe in. Unlike BoZo
    Saj will make the career calculation. But it’s not clear that being tied to the Boris mast is the right move. He is well positioned to replace Boris and reunite the Tories.

    Gove is always unpredictable. He may conclude that Boris is not succeeding and could lead a conciliatory approach based on Mays deal.
  • eristdoof said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.
    Yep, The Cleggasm didn't occurr until the GE campaign.
    Ha, I don't fancy imagining what a Swinson, Corbyn or Johnsongasm would look like...
  • Remain 53%
    Leave 47%

    There is the key figure.

    Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.

    This is going to get worse.

    No different to the Scots fighting over independence,,
    There are a lot of parallels. Phoney grievances whipped up by English/Scottish (delete as appropriate) nationalists to drive division hatred and despair. Nothing good ever comes of nationalism. It is a nasty and unpleasant creed.
  • Remain 53%
    Leave 47%

    There is the key figure.

    Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.

    This is going to get worse.

    +5% on to Remain
    -5% off Leave
  • Roger said:
    BBC Newsnight Economics & Business Editor.

    Labour. Obvs.
  • Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    They are waiting to use the scalpel and cut out the cancer that is Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings and Jacob Rees-Mogg
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    I don’t agree. Why should he have compromised if May did not?
    May's deal was a compromise which also kept open the various options in the transitional period which could have been the subject of more considered debate. It also implemented the referendum result without burning all our bridges. It was in the national interest and the failure of MPs to approve it is one of the principal reasons that this Parliament is held in such contempt. Too late now of course. We are headed for one extreme or the other with a deeply divided country as a result of either course.
  • malcolmg said:

    TOPPING said:

    Tabman said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?
    Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.
    Swinson is an annoying duffer, voting Lib Dem is worse than choosing between Mutt and Jeff.
    Thank you Malcy for that constructive and well thought out criticism...
    He is an intellectual colossus with analysis that is balanced and incisive. Amazing how impressive these Scottish Nationalists are. Speaking of which, anyone know the latest on Alex Salmond?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,879
    edited September 2019
    ydoethur said:

    The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

    The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

    If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

    Wow.

    If that is for real, Labour in particular are in much, much bigger trouble than I thought. This is a seat where the Lib vote has never gone above 17%.

    TTFN.
    Do YouGov even do constituency polling? And wouldn't it be conducted over more than one day. It seems unlikely to me Lib Dems would be first at this stage.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    edited September 2019
    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,568
    Good morning PB.

    For the first time in months the Vanilla embed is working again with Google Chrome on my PC.
  • ydoethur said:

    The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

    The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

    If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

    Wow.

    If that is for real, Labour in particular are in much, much bigger trouble than I thought. This is a seat where the Lib vote has never gone above 17%.

    TTFN.
    Who would have thought enabling anti semitism would play badly in Finchley? Why didnt someone advise Corbyn to get a grip?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,014
    edited September 2019
    We have a hooligan as a prime minister, who should have an antisocial behaviour order slapped on him. Literally.

    I suppose being excluded from the curtilage of the Palace of Westminster has constitutional implications as long as Parliament doesn't VONC the prime minister. Which of course he is taunting them to do, in a thuggish way.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The problem with everything from the start has been a failure to understand what a democratic mandate actually is. It is, in effect, permission granted by an/the electorate to pursue a course of action. It is not a right to pursue a course of action without opposition, nor permission to pursue a course of action come what may if circumstances change.

    Mandates can be strong or weak, depending on the size of democratic support expressed and/or the clarity of the proposition put forward (and the extent of its deliverability consistent with the circumstances the mandate was obtained). In a General election these things could be assessed by the size of majority, the prominence of the the issue in the manifesto and associated campaign etc etc.

    The problem with referendums is that they (by necessity, unless post legislative a la Scottish referendum in 1997 or on a simple choice eg should the maximum speed limit increase to 80mph) will rarely deliver a clear mandate. Their binary nature gives the illusion of strength of opinion when the opinion may be more “against” one option, rather than being in favour of another.

    Indeed this latter point is arguably at the heart of the impasse in which we find ourselves today. Because implicitly those who continue to advocate leave have consistently, in effect, interpreted the vote primarily as “anti-remain” rather than “pro leave”. This allows the consistent adoption of the contradictory position of simultaneously referring to “the 52%” (ie. in effect saying that all leaves are equally valid), whilst also rejecting various leave options in pursuit of their own favoured option. The line for the binary line could have been drawn elsewhere, granting a different mandate, but this is never acknowledged.
  • Scott_P said:
    Disagree with her on this one. The Conservatives should be allowed to have their conference for both moral and practical reasons: it's not as if anybody else has any idea of what to do with the new parliamentary time to fix the issue.

    What is more, it is likely the conference will do the Conservatives more harm than good ...
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 359
    Foxy said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.


    To be fair on Johnson he is breaking down himself on a cocktail of coffee and other stimulants. His Prometheus speech was beyond bonkers on Tuesday. What a national embarrassment.
    .
    The rarely admitted truth is that he's an absolutely awful speechmaker. Ponderous, boring, pompous - and incapable of delivering his lines. No idea what he used to be like (I only ever heard him on HIGNIFY), but just can't see how such an inept speaker got to be Press of the Oxford Union 30 years ago. He must have got worse with experience.

    But it's so consistent, it can't be just one pressurised day

    Snorted too much over 30 years? Early stage Alzheimers? Or some other real mental illness? I'd lay odds on his being bipolar: most of his visible awfulness is consistent with the hypomania half, but the Kuenssberg documentary showed a Johnson in the depressive stage.

    Whatever it is: he's our new George III
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB.

    For the first time in months the Vanilla embed is working again with Google Chrome on my PC.

    Surely this offsets a Swiss train being 2 minutes late? Maybe not the end of times after all. Better to get to work in that event.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Time may well tell. It often does.

    And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.
    Nothing because she knows how he would react
    That might end up being important. Maggie had Dennis to tell her the game was up. He could do that because he'd known and loved her for ages. Who has Boris got when it goes pearshaped, whenever that is?
    How on earth could you identify when things have gone pearshaped for Boris. He is already so deep into unchartered territory it would be impossible to gauge. Most people would probably have said the game was up once his request for an election was rejected.
    Fair point. It's hard to choose a moment between the loss of the 21, the no No Deal bill, the failure of the General Election plan and the prorogation court case. Though to be fair, it's all happened in about three weeks.

    But the question remains- who is there to counteract the joyful cackling of those who want everything to burn?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,718
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    No, it was May's fault in not drawing up bipartisan red lines. The Deal was just stasis for 2 years then a trashing of environmental, food and social rights.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    I don’t agree. Why should he have compromised if May did not?
    The reality is that Corbyn is a Brexiteer, just for different reasons to the right wing version. It is a little like where socialism and fascism meet. Many of Corbyn's more crazy policies would not be legal if we continue to be part of the EU.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,695
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    80 from the Tories, plus the other 21.

    Another 100 from Labour.

    Plus the half dozen independents.

    Liberal Democrats largest party and Jo Swinson heads a temporary government, revokes Brexit and we can have an election with the time pressure off.

    Yes, yes I can see the problems, but in the vanishingly unlikely event it happened it would probably be the best way out of this disaster.

    Have a good morning.
    Revoke doesn't settle the Brexit - it would be the focus point of the next election with real anger involved from the Brexiter side.

    The only way to settle Brexit is a second referendum - which scarily shows that Corbyn is actually right for once.

    For once.

    Like on Iraq Libya PFI etc etc
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    DavidL said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Good morning PB.

    For the first time in months the Vanilla embed is working again with Google Chrome on my PC.

    Surely this offsets a Swiss train being 2 minutes late? Maybe not the end of times after all. Better to get to work in that event.
    All passengers are still in shock.
  • Remain 53%
    Leave 47%

    There is the key figure.

    Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.

    This is going to get worse.

    No different to the Scots fighting over independence,,
    There are a lot of parallels. Phoney grievances whipped up by English/Scottish (delete as appropriate) nationalists to drive division hatred and despair. Nothing good ever comes of nationalism. It is a nasty and unpleasant creed.
    Agreed 5 years later and a low level war still exists in my company. As bad as Rangers Celtic division. It will take years for the split to heal.

    If Scotland teaches us anything it is that the Lib Dem’s will surprise on the upside in the next election and possibly the brexit party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,917
    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    Mad idea. Vote for what you believe in. Forget about others.
  • R4 Today leading post 8 with the “humbug” comment -before the news Ms Abbott having trouble with Tory vitriol bad, Labour vitriol good...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,788
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    No, it was May's fault in not drawing up bipartisan red lines. The Deal was just stasis for 2 years then a trashing of environmental, food and social rights.
    Plenty of fault to go around. May was indeed at fault in not making this a national effort.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Good politicians have offered the middle ground, Clarke, Stewart, Boles, Letwin, Morgan. The Tory party rejected it in favour of extremist, radical, divisive piffle.

    Conservative Mps with a small c are still significant in number in the House, if they support the aforementioned we can make progress. Otherwise the takeover of both main parties by extremists will be complete within a couple of years.
  • Scott_P said:
    Disagree with her on this one. The Conservatives should be allowed to have their conference for both moral and practical reasons: it's not as if anybody else has any idea of what to do with the new parliamentary time to fix the issue.

    What is more, it is likely the conference will do the Conservatives more harm than good ...
    Agreed. They should be allowed to have their conference. People need to see the swiveleyed nutters that now control the Conservative Party, just like they have seen the baying mob that now control Labour.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,014
    TOPPING said:

    fyi the Swiss train I'm on - SWISS - just departed two minutes late.

    Make of that what you will.

    A delay of couple of minutes is normal these days, although Swiss trains are not usually VERY late.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,446
    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    Mad idea. Vote for what you believe in. Forget about others.
    You haven't understood FPTP yet, have you?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    edited September 2019
    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    Mad idea. Vote for what you believe in. Forget about others.
    I believe that the government should be lead by a non-anti-semitic non-marxist.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,695

    ydoethur said:

    The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

    The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

    If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

    Wow.

    If that is for real, Labour in particular are in much, much bigger trouble than I thought. This is a seat where the Lib vote has never gone above 17%.

    TTFN.
    Who would have thought enabling anti semitism would play badly in Finchley? Why didnt someone advise Corbyn to get a grip?
    LD Gain from Tories.

    Doubt it Con Hold IMO.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 46,996

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    I don’t agree. Why should he have compromised if May did not?
    The reality is that Corbyn is a Brexiteer, just for different reasons to the right wing version. It is a little like where socialism and fascism meet. Many of Corbyn's more crazy policies would not be legal if we continue to be part of the EU.
    And are not compatible with a trade treaty with the EU either.
    It's possible to have contradictory policies - Johnson is more or less managing to do so in government - but sooner or later the contradiction has to be resolved.
  • TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    Vote for what you think is right. As an ex-Tory activist that is disgusted with what the extremists have done to the Conservative Party I will not use my vote to endorse them and the idiot liar that nominally leads them
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623
    TGOHF2 said:
    Wow! Rod Liddles brain has gone walkabouts.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 359
    ydoethur said:

    The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.
    .

    Wow.

    Not for one second in her time as PM did former Finchley MP Maggie show any inkling of behaving as disgracefully as the Spiv does. She must be turning in her grave at what he's done to her party

    I BETCHA the Cities of London & Westminster would show something almost identical. Anyone seen local polls?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    edited September 2019

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelmingt the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    Vote for what you think is right. As an ex-Tory activist that is disgusted with what the extremists have done to the Conservative Party I will not use my vote to endorse them and the idiot liar that nominally leads them
    Well indeed. Hence the conundrum. They are shocking I think we both agree on that. And I am also a(n ex-)Tory activist. But we are talking about Jeremy Corbyn here. This shit just got real.
  • eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    80 from the Tories, plus the other 21.

    Another 100 from Labour.

    Plus the half dozen independents.

    Liberal Democrats largest party and Jo Swinson heads a temporary government, revokes Brexit and we can have an election with the time pressure off.

    Yes, yes I can see the problems, but in the vanishingly unlikely event it happened it would probably be the best way out of this disaster.

    Have a good morning.
    Revoke doesn't settle the Brexit - it would be the focus point of the next election with real anger involved from the Brexiter side.

    The only way to settle Brexit is a second referendum - which scarily shows that Corbyn is actually right for once.

    For once.

    Like on Iraq Libya PFI etc etc
    Even a monkey will choose the right option some of the time. By the same token even the Leader of Little Brain might appear to have been right in retrospect occasionally
  • Flavible adding 5% Green gives

    Con 266
    Lab 224
    LDem 84
    SNP 50
    PC 4
    BRX 3
    Grn 1
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I’m constantly mystified at the belief that Brexiteer anger after revoking following a Libdem General Election victory would be unconstrained, but mild after a cobbled together referendum that in effect (and by necessity) grants them a choice between two specific options that they oppose.

    I just about get the argument that you might want revoke to be preceded by another referendum to avoid setting a precedent for a future leave supporting Govt, but in the other hand any such future would involve a potential party of Govt in effect promising to repeat something akin to the last 3 years and in effect wasting the majority of their Parliamentary term doing it. I doubt that will be an election winning platform, personally.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    What ! Knightsbridge surely, I mean even my daughter lives in Ealing and shes a builder.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Remain 53%
    Leave 47%

    There is the key figure.

    Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.

    This is going to get worse.

    No different to the Scots fighting over independence,,
    There are a lot of parallels. Phoney grievances whipped up by English/Scottish (delete as appropriate) nationalists to drive division hatred and despair. Nothing good ever comes of nationalism. It is a nasty and unpleasant creed.
    Exactly. Nationalism always turns nasty.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,446
    eek said:

    nielh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

    The plan didn't survive contact with the opposition.
    Reading that I do hope the opposition have planned how to handle a Boris resignation.

    Take power - but implement Labour's Brexit policy and ask for a 12 month extension with a quick renegotiation followed by a leave (with deal) or remain referendum with a general election delayed until late 2020 or 2021 seems a more sensible approach to finalise Brexit than another election.

    And if the Tories wish for an election - just take the Chiltern Hundreds and you can have one.
    This assumes that there are 320 MPs prepared to support Corbyn as PM.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.
  • Mr Topping, I think hung parliament with most seats is the best Mr Thicky can hope for. He won't get Scotland back. He might go into coalition with SNP I guess, but he would have his wings clipped. I think the Tories will do their best to make people fear a Corbyn majority but it is most probably a straw man. I short term Corbyn government is no worse than a no-deal Brexit IMO.
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    That's my feeling. I could see it moving either way.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,978
    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    Mad idea. Vote for what you believe in. Forget about others.
    I believe that the government should be lead by a non-anti-semitic non-marxist.
    Agreed.

    Machiavellian sociopath it is then.
  • Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    Who are the elite? Leavers threatening violence is very dull. The police and the courts will be fine. If people want to become a terrorist they will be dealt with.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    There is the enduring hope that Conservative backbenchers will end this, but it’s a very long shot. They would need to see a route to a new leader and a way to save their seat. Is there a safe pair of hands waiting in the wings?
    There's a problem in that 1922 Committee rules prevent a challenge to a Leader in the first 12 month.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    edited September 2019

    TOPPING said:

    Jonathan said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    Mad idea. Vote for what you believe in. Forget about others.
    I believe that the government should be lead by a non-anti-semitic non-marxist.
    Agreed.

    Machiavellian sociopath it is then.
    Yes there is that.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Fenster said:

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    Idiot
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    Foxy said:




    Tabman said:

    The (g)nats really dislike Swinson.

    So do the Corbynites. They realise the threat.
    People can dislike a political opponent without being afraid of them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,850
    alex. said:

    I’m constantly mystified at the belief that Brexiteer anger after revoking following a Libdem General Election victory would be unconstrained, but mild after a cobbled together referendum that in effect (and by necessity) grants them a choice between two specific options that they oppose.

    I just about get the argument that you might want revoke to be preceded by another referendum to avoid setting a precedent for a future leave supporting Govt, but in the other hand any such future would involve a potential party of Govt in effect promising to repeat something akin to the last 3 years and in effect wasting the majority of their Parliamentary term doing it. I doubt that will be an election winning platform, personally.

    The Brexit genie is out the bottle and it's not going away.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,695
    James Cleverly not very impressive on the media this morning. Tories need to steady the ship - they`ve got their "surrrender" message across and now need to revert to polite exchanges. May was good at that.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,943
    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs performance.

    Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in?.
    I am in Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP who had an anti-Semitism issue.

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    I suppose what I'm saying is a Lab hold, though it contributes 1 to their MP tally in the same way as a gain, merely helps get them back to their current position. It is gains they need to govern, so I do feel your calculation is subtly different than if Con actually held the seat.

    In the end, though, you are one voter with one 'x', in one seat. You can only make a best tactical judgement when the day comes - heck, it's not like you lack the input for that on here, but take a deep breath and absolve yourself from the best guess tactical calculation that doesn't come off and, more still, absolve yourself of how others choose to vote.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    edited September 2019

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    They are waiting to use the scalpel and cut out the cancer that is Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings and Jacob Rees-Mogg
    No, they are waiting, without hope, for events to save them, so they dont have to act.
  • Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    When someone says "hopefully there won't be violence" one has to wonder! Boris has not had an ounce of opprobrium he does not deserve. The man is a lying toad and incompetent to boot.

    As for the referendum in 2016. Since we had GE in 2017 which did not provide a ringing endorsement for the party that went in on a ticket of a pretty hard Brexit. Now the opinion polls indicate a reversal. There is no mandate for a hard Brexit, and possible no mandate for Brexit at all. I for one would happily accept a compromise soft Brexit. It will then be up to the Boris fan-boys and headbanging nutters to persuade the gullible electorate to take it a stage further, if they can.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    Who are the elite? Leavers threatening violence is very dull. The police and the courts will be fine. If people want to become a terrorist they will be dealt with.
    I agree. But what I'm saying is there will always be individual lunatics like the guy who killed Jo Cox. But it has NOTHING to do with the Tory party. The way parliament behaved yesterday will do nothing to quash the chances of violent arguments and they all know it.
  • Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    Speaking of blatant hypocrisy your criticism of links to the IRA (which would have merit on its own standing) is completely at odds with your final sentence. If you would have no sympathy for victims of political violence re Brexit, you are not in a position to comment re IRA violence.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    eristdoof said:

    eek said:

    nielh said:

    Nigelb said:

    Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

    The plan didn't survive contact with the opposition.
    Reading that I do hope the opposition have planned how to handle a Boris resignation.

    Take power - but implement Labour's Brexit policy and ask for a 12 month extension with a quick renegotiation followed by a leave (with deal) or remain referendum with a general election delayed until late 2020 or 2021 seems a more sensible approach to finalise Brexit than another election.

    And if the Tories wish for an election - just take the Chiltern Hundreds and you can have one.
    This assumes that there are 320 MPs prepared to support Corbyn as PM.
    I actually wonder if the Chiltern Hundreds is the only way you can exit being PM - as you remain PM until another one is appointed but you do need to be in Parliament to be PM.

    If that's the case all the Labour party needs to do (given that anyone sane wants the Tory party to own the extension past October 31st) would be to start nominating Tory MPs until they have all resigned. By which time we will have the mother of all byelection nights and in the short term Corbyn would only need 180 MPs supporting him
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463

    ydoethur said:

    Odd way to announce your retirement from Parliament. Or is it a token gesture due to problems finding a candidate in F&GG?

    She is a LibDem -- what do you expect?

    After all those protestations about how deep her roots are in Liverpool ... just another LibDem liar.

    She is now the PPC for FGG

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49831648

    The former PPC has been booted out.
    Oh give over.

    Luciana stands a decent chance in Finchley.

    Good luck to her.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,278

    Fenster said:



    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.


    Who are the elite? Leavers threatening violence is very dull. The police and the courts will be fine. If people want to become a terrorist they will be dealt with.
    I would advise watching 'The Troubles' on BBC, on Tuesday night. The relationships between the British authorities and the IRA and indeed, at least in the early stages, between Paisleyites and the IRA are far from black and white.
    And when I write 'IRA' I mean both the Officials and the Provisionals.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,695
    edited September 2019
    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
  • kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    They are waiting to use the scalpel and cut out the cancer that is Boris Johnson, Dominic Cummings and Jacob Rees-Mogg
    No, they are waiting, without hope, for events to save them, so they dont have to act.
    Possibly, sadly, I suspect you might be right!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Foxy said:




    Tabman said:

    The (g)nats really dislike Swinson.

    So do the Corbynites. They realise the threat.
    If the Nats loathe Swinson, then she is doing something right. The Nats are built on hatred of anyone who doesn't follow their creed.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    What ! Knightsbridge surely, I mean even my daughter lives in Ealing and shes a builder.
    Reminds me of the old joke (which I will amend) - a builder comes round to a guy's house to put up some shelves. He does so and says that will be £1,000. The guy says £1,000??? That's more than I earn per hour and I'm a lawyer, to which the builder responds: yes it's more than I earned when I was a lawyer.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463
    ydoethur said:

    The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

    The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

    If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

    Wow.

    If that is for real, Labour in particular are in much, much bigger trouble than I thought. This is a seat where the Lib vote has never gone above 17%.

    TTFN.
    Seats with large Jewish population.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

    https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

    There is the enduring hope that Conservative backbenchers will end this, but it’s a very long shot. They would need to see a route to a new leader and a way to save their seat. Is there a safe pair of hands waiting in the wings?
    There's a problem in that 1922 Committee rules prevent a challenge to a Leader in the first 12 month.
    It doesn’t only after a previous confidence vote
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,946
    I see Harry's lies from last week have been scotched.
    Minimum price 'cuts drinking by half a pint a week'
    Since May 2018, the price of alcohol has had to be at least 50p per unit.

    The study published in the British Medical Journal looked at how much alcohol was bought in shops before and after the move up to the end of 2018.

    It found the amount purchased per person per week fell by 1.2 units - the equivalent of just over half a pint of beer or a measure of spirits.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49831575
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

    Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.
    I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

    (Note the source)

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    What ! Knightsbridge surely, I mean even my daughter lives in Ealing and shes a builder.
    Reminds me of the old joke (which I will amend) - a builder comes round to a guy's house to put up some shelves. He does so and says that will be £1,000. The guy says £1,000??? That's more than I earn per hour and I'm a lawyer, to which the builder responds: yes it's more than I earned when I was a lawyer.
    lol

    so true these days !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,490
    After wishing our politicians would stop yelling in coherently at one another, full of rage and self righteousness and just reacting over and over to the extreme views from those who simply have to be trolling for a reaction, I really should learn to practice what I preach.
  • NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Jonathan said:

    There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.

    Or a number of lesser figures. I can't believe the Conservative Party can't find ten or twelve MPs with the required backbone and moral standards to end this dangerous, farcical premiership. I thought there were still a few good Tories left.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,648

    Fenster said:



    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.


    Who are the elite? Leavers threatening violence is very dull. The police and the courts will be fine. If people want to become a terrorist they will be dealt with.
    I would advise watching 'The Troubles' on BBC, on Tuesday night. The relationships between the British authorities and the IRA and indeed, at least in the early stages, between Paisleyites and the IRA are far from black and white.
    And when I write 'IRA' I mean both the Officials and the Provisionals.
    Its been a really good series so far,
  • Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    Who are the elite? Leavers threatening violence is very dull. The police and the courts will be fine. If people want to become a terrorist they will be dealt with.
    Well said. What I find offensive is the idea only those that were on the (marginally) winning side of that iffy 2016 referendum think they have a right to be angry. The difference is I don't notice any on the remain side threatening violence. (no doubt they will be trawling this very minute to bring up some tenuous rebuttal lol)
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    Speaking of blatant hypocrisy your criticism of links to the IRA (which would have merit on its own standing) is completely at odds with your final sentence. If you would have no sympathy for victims of political violence re Brexit, you are not in a position to comment re IRA violence.
    Okay, sorry badly worded. I would have sympathy (of course I would) but what I mean is I wouldn't be shocked if some lunatic was inspired to attack an MP. Yesterday's spectacle was awful and if anything it proved that proroguing parliament during this inflamed period is not a bad idea.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,463
    JackW said:

    I think a concern for Boris backers from the Survation poll is the 62/27 split on an apology to the Queen. The Prime Minister would do well to reflect on the comments by Jess Philips in the HoC last night. Some contrition from Boris would have been welcome.

    However the strategy from the Prime Minister is clear. His intention is to weaponize BREXIT to the maximum and use any language to inflame the issue and use Trumpian tactics in the coming general election campaign.

    We now have a Prime Minister who leads a party that is Conservative in name only and is more akin to a BREXIT-Lite front. He has morphed in to a "Donald Mini Me" and it is an ugly sight to behold.


    Long before this became apparent to me, my American client said to me over drinks this summer “I can’t believe you’ve gone and got your own version of Trump but much shorter and with real hair”. She called it bang on. Yuk. Boris is gross.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000
    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    TOPPING said:

    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Extraordinary times, yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs performance.

    Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.
    Which constituency are you in?.
    I am in Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP who had an anti-Semitism issue.

    It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming L split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

    This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
    It is only Con gains or Lab gains or even LD gains that would bring about a majority government.

    As someone thinking of switching Con to LD in a Labour held seat, you cannot provoke a Labour gain and by going away from the Tories you would not contribute in any way to a Con gain. You can only contribute to an LD gain which, nationally, you think would be a good thing.

    Your only question then is a local one - is contrubuting directly to unseating your local MP, and perhaps thus contributing to a Boris majority, more important than doing what you want at a national level?

    Is that a fair summation?
    There are many scenarios, amongst which:

    1) I vote Cons, Lab voters go LD, Cons win.
    2) I vote LD, Lab voters go LD, LDs win.
    3) I vote LD, Lab voters stay where they are, Cons (like me) vote LD, Lab win.

    It is this last which means I can contribute to a Lab win if I vote LD.

    So which is most likely? It is a strongly remain constituency but also a soft Cons one hence plenty of reason both remain and anti-anti-Semitic Lab and soft Cons would go LD, hence a LD win. But it's quite a risk.
    I suppose what I'm saying is a Lab hold, though it contributes 1 to their MP tally in the same way as a gain, merely helps get them back to their current position. It is gains they need to govern, so I do feel your calculation is subtly different than if Con actually held the seat.

    In the end, though, you are one voter with one 'x', in one seat. You can only make a best tactical judgement when the day comes - heck, it's not like you lack the input for that on here, but take a deep breath and absolve yourself from the best guess tactical calculation that doesn't come off and, more still, absolve yourself of how others choose to vote.
    You are right, although in some far off part of the country maybe there is a Lab gain which I can offset but yes I suspect your suggestion will be exactly what I do.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,685
    malcolmg said:

    I see Harry's lies from last week have been scotched.
    Minimum price 'cuts drinking by half a pint a week'
    Since May 2018, the price of alcohol has had to be at least 50p per unit.

    The study published in the British Medical Journal looked at how much alcohol was bought in shops before and after the move up to the end of 2018.

    It found the amount purchased per person per week fell by 1.2 units - the equivalent of just over half a pint of beer or a measure of spirits.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-49831575

    Good news.

    Let’s hope @Byronic does not visit Scotland any time soon otherwise those stats are going to be ruined.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,459
    edited September 2019
    Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Boris has been called a racist, a dictator, a sexist... he's been accused to enacting a coup. He's been told he's 'running scared', or 'surrendering to the Brexit party'. There have been countless - probably unprecedented for any modern politician - personal attacks on him. The abuse he has received has been relentless.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    None of these are as emotive to many people as the charge of surrender, treachery and treason to a foreign power, and the labour language is nothing to do with Brexit. Not only that, but as is widely known, the "surrender" rhetoric is nothing to do with an emotionally charged response by Johnson, but a conscious take from Trumpian playbook that Cummings has been working on since the summer.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,296

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    I don’t agree. Why should he have compromised if May did not?
    May did compromise. Jim Fitzpatrick (Labour) was pretty frank about it yesterday saying May came back with a deal that essentially met the tests that labour put forward and expected labour to be behind it. In his words Corbyn then moved the goalposts as he couldn’t be seen enabling Brexit.
  • I’m glad to be a Lib Dem voter this morning.

    The other parties are mental (if not evil).
  • Fenster said:

    Fenster said:

    Unedifying scenes from parliament.

    Then he uses the words 'surrender' and 'humbug' after being screamed at by - a clearly organised - gang of Labour female backbenchers and they have a collective performative hissy fit.

    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.

    We have a Lib Dem leader whose slogan is 'Bollocks to Brexit.

    We have blatant hypocrisy.

    Boris is unruly and tough enough to look after himself, he doesn't need my support. I'm not convinced he is PM material but to suggest that he is somehow more incendiary than any of the nasty attack dogs on the Reman side, or indeed Britain-hating revolutionaries like Corbyn, is pure bullshit and spin.

    Jo Cox's tragic death had NOTHING to do with the Tories and bringing her name into the debate is pouring unnecessary fuel on the fire. Using her name was planned and knowingly executed.

    The reality is that the EU referendum gave millions of poor working class voters in safe constituencies the opportunity to vote in an election where their votes counted. 75% of the elite are vehemently opposed to the result of that vote, they are uncomfortable with the way it has cut across party lines and most of them are indirectly trying every trick in the book to ensure Brexit is blocked.

    They won't do it directly because they don't want to lose their seats so they are putting people like Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham in their way to take the flak for them.

    Hopefully there won't be violence but I wouldn't bet against it. I wouldn't have any sympathy either.

    Who are the elite? Leavers threatening violence is very dull. The police and the courts will be fine. If people want to become a terrorist they will be dealt with.
    I agree. But what I'm saying is there will always be individual lunatics like the guy who killed Jo Cox. But it has NOTHING to do with the Tory party. The way parliament behaved yesterday will do nothing to quash the chances of violent arguments and they all know it.
    Calling people traitors, enemies of the people who are surrendering to a foreign power, using repeated war memes increases the chance of those lunatics acting.

    People used to take responsibility for their actions in public life. Then politicians used plausible deniability to avoid taking responsibility if they could get away with it. Todays bunch just bluster on through pretending they havent been caught. It is pathetic.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,795
    edited September 2019
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    eristdoof said:

    While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

    I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

    I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

    Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?
    British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

    @eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
    You beat me to it. When I read Eristdoof's comment I thought how long will it be before a Brexiteer brings up the war. I didn't have long to wait.

    If you ever look at any Brexit discussion on CH you won't go along without WW2 coming into it. It ended three quarters of a century ago yet they bring it up like it was last year. It is pathetic. Everyone else seems to have moved on but us.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,946

    Foxy said:




    Tabman said:

    The (g)nats really dislike Swinson.

    So do the Corbynites. They realise the threat.
    If the Nats loathe Swinson, then she is doing something right. The Nats are built on hatred of anyone who doesn't follow their creed.
    Don't talk rubbish, nobody loathes anyone , we can just spot a fake useless donkey better than you jessie boy wibbly wobblers on here.
    She is just another lying Lib Dem , more right wing than the Tories.
    She is anti democratic and anti Liberal as well as useless, nothing personal.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Charles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Wow, reading back over the last 12 hours, everybody needs to seriously calm down.

    Politicians, journalists, commenters on blogs and social media. Everyone.

    I think a day’s hard work is preferable to another day like yesterday, with everyone shouting past each other and almost no-one listening to a different point of view.

    Back to lurking for me, laters.

    Same here. Real work of generating export earnings
    +1

    Yesterday was an expense of spirit in a waste of shame. Enuff.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,685

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    He just isn't interested but he made a serious mistake voting against May's deal. The country would be in a much better place if he hadn't done that.
    I don’t agree. Why should he have compromised if May did not?
    May did compromise. Jim Fitzpatrick (Labour) was pretty frank about it yesterday saying May came back with a deal that essentially met the tests that labour put forward and expected labour to be behind it. In his words Corbyn then moved the goalposts as he couldn’t be seen enabling Brexit.
    Rubbish. It was last minute window dressing.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,000

    Fenster said:



    Labour have a shadow chancellor who has called for 'lynching' and for Tories to 'fear walking the streets'. They have a leader who rang the IRA leaders and invited them to parliament despite their henchmen murdering countless innocent people on British soil an blowing up a Tory party conference.


    Who are the elite? Leavers threatening violence is very dull. The police and the courts will be fine. If people want to become a terrorist they will be dealt with.
    I would advise watching 'The Troubles' on BBC, on Tuesday night. The relationships between the British authorities and the IRA and indeed, at least in the early stages, between Paisleyites and the IRA are far from black and white.
    And when I write 'IRA' I mean both the Officials and the Provisionals.
    I had a very sensible relationship with the local "Sinn Fein" councillor where I was stationed.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056
    Scott_P said:
    It's also known as the "totally screwed up Boris's plans" act which is why other names need to be found.

    It's a shame the Tory party haven't found a name that sticks to it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 37,946

    I’m glad to be a Lib Dem voter this morning.

    The other parties are mental (if not evil).

    You sound as if you are both
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,623

    Roger said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

    Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

    We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
    Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

    We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
    Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.
    Corbyn is an egoist and a Tory helper. If he'd have resigned we'd have a Labour government by now.
    How?

    BTW you are a BREXIT extremist like Jester and Tory Swinson
    I'm a Labour voter who wanted a Labour government. A blind man on a galloping camel could see that Corbyn can't win. All he can do is give Johnson the only chance he could ever have of being and remaining PM.
  • eekeek Posts: 22,056

    I’m glad to be a Lib Dem voter this morning.

    The other parties are mental (if not evil).

    Wish I could be - I'm still at the must vote Labour as the tories are worse and the Lib Dems don't have a chance in hell around here stage.
This discussion has been closed.