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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiary
Survation Mail post Supreme Court poll votingCON 27% -2LAB 24% =LD 22% +4BREX 16% -1
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Corbyn third. Great conference, Labour.
Politicians, journalists, commenters on blogs and social media. Everyone.
I think a day’s hard work is preferable to another day like yesterday, with everyone shouting past each other and almost no-one listening to a different point of view.
Back to lurking for me, laters.
Trump in the Ukraine, and Boris in Arcurigate.
Made me chuckle.
https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/
Best prices - Article 50 to be revoked
No 4/11
Yes 2/1
NOM 4/6
Con Maj 15/8
Lab Maj 12/1
Any other party Maj 28/1
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/25/grants-shapps-lifts-sections-of-speech-from-chris-grayling
https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1177093839187824642?s=20
Leave 47%
There is the key figure.
Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.
This is going to get worse.
I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.
I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.
He did not need to respond to Sherriff's comment in the manner that he did. The question from Sherriff was (IMO) not very good – in tone or presentation, and he could just have ignored it and continued talking about the bill, or started with “Let me explain why I call this the surrender act ...”
Instead, he paused during a commotion, and then said “I have to say Mr Speaker, I have never heard such humbug in all my life. The reality is, this is is a bill ...” Then, after another lengthy and noisy interruption, he says: “Well Mr Speaker, let me just explain why I call this the surrender act ...”
So, why did he say it? There are probably a couple of options, and none of them reflect well on the PM.
Firstly, he was shocked by the vehemence of Sherriff’s comment, and despite starting one line about the bill, changed tack to deliver a poorly-considered line. He did not think about how the comment would look to many people.
Secondly, that Sherriff’s comment diverted him, and he used the few seconds of commotion in the house to consider his response. He meant to say when he did, and his instinct is that it will play well to his intended audience.
The former marks him out not to be a fleet-of-foot thinker; someone who has a good turn of phrase when writing (i.e. not under pressure), but not very good in verbal combat.
The latter marks him out as a really nasty piece of work, and the last person who should be asked to bring the country back together at this time.
As ever, people will make of it what they will; many Brexiteers will see it as a masterly move, whilst many Labourites will see it as appalling, even as they applaud or condone similar comments being made against Conservatives.
But it’s a tragedy that the country has descended to this level.
Looks like you managed to add a bonus prize to your winnings in the lottery of life.
@eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.
Make of that what you will.
Raining quite a bit again.
I wonder what conversations are happening over the family breakfast tables of Conservative MPs this morning?
The agenda is this So we get the fireworks of the other parties not suspending Parliament for the Tory conference first.
Take power - but implement Labour's Brexit policy and ask for a 12 month extension with a quick renegotiation followed by a leave (with deal) or remain referendum with a general election delayed until late 2020 or 2021 seems a more sensible approach to finalise Brexit than another election.
And if the Tories wish for an election - just take the Chiltern Hundreds and you can have one.
And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.
We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.
Question for HYUFD. “As a democrat” do you believe that May’s deal met the requirements to deliver this?
What absolute fools.
Britain's pretences of civilised discourse and stiff upper lip are chucked into the plague pit of Brexit.
We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.
“Bollocks to non Lib Dem’s” - how very inflammatory.
I’m far from Corbynite, but after last night, Corbyn is the least worst option.
However the strategy from the Prime Minister is clear. His intention is to weaponize BREXIT to the maximum and use any language to inflame the issue and use Trumpian tactics in the coming general election campaign.
We now have a Prime Minister who leads a party that is Conservative in name only and is more akin to a BREXIT-Lite front. He has morphed in to a "Donald Mini Me" and it is an ugly sight to behold.
She is a LibDem -- what do you expect?
After all those protestations about how deep her roots are in Liverpool ... just another LibDem liar.
She is now the PPC for FGG
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49831648
The former PPC has been booted out.
https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/
(Note the source)
It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.
This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.
https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19
https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1177113415178866688
Another 100 from Labour.
Plus the half dozen independents.
Liberal Democrats largest party and Jo Swinson heads a temporary government, revokes Brexit and we can have an election with the time pressure off.
Yes, yes I can see the problems, but in the vanishingly unlikely event it happened it would probably be the best way out of this disaster.
Have a good morning.
The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253
If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.
If that is for real, Labour in particular are in much, much bigger trouble than I thought. This is a seat where the Lib vote has never gone above 17%.
TTFN.
TheSAJ is in the biggest job he will ever have.
Gove clearly has no love for BoZo, but bringing him down probably dooms Brexit, which Gove does seem to believe in. Unlike BoZo
The only way to settle Brexit is a second referendum - which scarily shows that Corbyn is actually right for once.
So do the Corbynites. They realise the threat.