politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First post-Supreme Court polling finds the LDs main beneficiar

Wow, reading back over the last 12 hours, everybody needs to seriously calm down.

Politicians, journalists, commenters on blogs and social media. Everyone.

I think a day’s hard work is preferable to another day like yesterday, with everyone shouting past each other and almost no-one listening to a different point of view.

Back to lurking for me, laters.

Most importantly, LAFC has won the MLS Supporters Shield!

Good to know the government has a standard template for bankruptcies in the run up to Brexit.....
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/25/grants-shapps-lifts-sections-of-speech-from-chris-grayling

edmundintokyo said:

Nigelb said:

Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

Don't you hate it when you get a corbyn stuck in your OODA loop

An experience all of us would seek to avoid.

Anyone made sure no sharp objects near HYUFD?

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1177093642588250112?s=20

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1177093839187824642?s=20

StuartDickson said:

Remain 53%
Leave 47%

There is the key figure.

Three years of phoney civil war and public opinion has barely shifted.

This is going to get worse.

No different to the Scots fighting over independence,,

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1177093642588250112?s=20

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1177093839187824642?s=20

Should we know Ducan Weldon?

On Boris and the humbug comment.

He did not need to respond to Sherriff's comment in the manner that he did. The question from Sherriff was (IMO) not very good – in tone or presentation, and he could just have ignored it and continued talking about the bill, or started with “Let me explain why I call this the surrender act ...”

Instead, he paused during a commotion, and then said “I have to say Mr Speaker, I have never heard such humbug in all my life. The reality is, this is is a bill ...” Then, after another lengthy and noisy interruption, he says: “Well Mr Speaker, let me just explain why I call this the surrender act ...”

So, why did he say it? There are probably a couple of options, and none of them reflect well on the PM.

Firstly, he was shocked by the vehemence of Sherriff’s comment, and despite starting one line about the bill, changed tack to deliver a poorly-considered line. He did not think about how the comment would look to many people.

Secondly, that Sherriff’s comment diverted him, and he used the few seconds of commotion in the house to consider his response. He meant to say when he did, and his instinct is that it will play well to his intended audience.

The former marks him out not to be a fleet-of-foot thinker; someone who has a good turn of phrase when writing (i.e. not under pressure), but not very good in verbal combat.

The latter marks him out as a really nasty piece of work, and the last person who should be asked to bring the country back together at this time.

As ever, people will make of it what they will; many Brexiteers will see it as a masterly move, whilst many Labourites will see it as appalling, even as they applaud or condone similar comments being made against Conservatives.

But it’s a tragedy that the country has descended to this level.

eristdoof said:

While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

Congratulations.

Looks like you managed to add a bonus prize to your winnings in the lottery of life.

DavidL said:

eristdoof said:

While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?

British obsession with the war is why we are in such a mess as a country.

@eristdoof congratulations, I would if I could too.

JosiasJessop said:

On Boris and the humbug comment.
...
As ever, people will make of it what they will

Personally, I think it points to a lack of empathy and compassion which reflects badly on Johnson.

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

eristdoof said:

While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?

The sort of comment I write very early in the morning, pause over, then delete.

You're probably right. No coffee in the system yet.

TOPPING said:

fyi the Swiss train I'm on - SWISS - just departed two minutes late.

Make of that what you will.

It really is the end of times, isn't it?

Must admit, I thought all that stuff about Boris as Britain's Trump was overblown. Guess I was wrong.

rkrkrk said:

Must admit, I thought all that stuff about Boris as Britain's Trump was overblown. Guess I was wrong.

It's not the best comparison though, is it? Trump actually won an election.

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

eristdoof said:

While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?

The sort of comment I write very early in the morning, pause over, then delete.

You're probably right. No coffee in the system yet.

but it was hugely amusing nevertheless , unless you are from the seriously politically correct spectrum.

rkrkrk said:

Must admit, I thought all that stuff about Boris as Britain's Trump was overblown. Guess I was wrong.

TOPPING said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.

Yes, very true.

Today's parliamentary debate seems to be trying to answer Burkes delegate or representative question in reverse.
The agenda is this

9.30am Prayers
Afterwards Urgent Questions, Ministerial Statements (if any)
No debate Adjournment (Conference) (Motion)
Until 5.00pm General Debate: Principles of democracy and the rights of the
electorate
No debate Presentation of Public Petitions

So we get the fireworks of the other parties not suspending Parliament for the Tory conference first.

DavidL said:

On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

Johnson’s personal ratings - competence/incompetence, strength/weakness etc - have declined markedly according to the morning’s Times (no link as I was - the horror - reading a print version).

nielh said:

Nigelb said:

Reportedly, not getting the election they tried to taunt the opposition into calling was not game planned:
https://www.politico.eu/article/where-boris-johnson-went-wrong-dominic-cummings-plan/

The plan didn't survive contact with the opposition.

Reading that I do hope the opposition have planned how to handle a Boris resignation.

Take power - but implement Labour's Brexit policy and ask for a 12 month extension with a quick renegotiation followed by a leave (with deal) or remain referendum with a general election delayed until late 2020 or 2021 seems a more sensible approach to finalise Brexit than another election.

And if the Tories wish for an election - just take the Chiltern Hundreds and you can have one.

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Time may well tell. It often does.

And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.

Tabman said:

TOPPING said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.

Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?

Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.

Lots of discussion last night about whether various leave options do or do not fulfill the democratic wish of the electorate as voted for in the referendum.

Question for HYUFD. “As a democrat” do you believe that May’s deal met the requirements to deliver this?

I have now seen how the Dems are going to fuck up impeachment. They are openly talking about trying to get it all done by the end of October.

What absolute fools.

SquareRoot said:

DavidL said:

TOPPING said:

DavidL said:

eristdoof said:

While the politicians in the UK and the US were knocking seven bells out of each other, I got some good news yesterday evening. I will gain German citizenship on 9th October!

I only became eligible for citizenship on 1st August after being a resident here for 6 years. The default minimum residency is 8 years, so with 6 years I needed to make a good case. I am happily surprised that the immigration office has been so quick at processing and approving my case.

I am delighted that my citizenship comes through before brexit, which means that I will remain both a UK citizen and a citizen of a EU country REGARDLESS of when and what type of Brexit occurs. I was at one stage quite worried that I would lose my British passport due to a No Deal Crash Out.

Have you felt a sudden urge to invade Poland?

The sort of comment I write very early in the morning, pause over, then delete.

You're probably right. No coffee in the system yet.

but it was hugely amusing nevertheless , unless you are from the seriously politically correct spectrum.

Not often accused of that.

OldKingCole said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Time may well tell. It often does.

And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.

To be fair on Johnson he is breaking down himself on a cocktail of coffee and other stimulants. His Prometheus speech was beyond bonkers on Tuesday. What a national embarrassment.

Britain's pretences of civilised discourse and stiff upper lip are chucked into the plague pit of Brexit.

TOPPING said:

Tabman said:

TOPPING said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.

Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?

Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.

Swinson is an annoying duffer, voting Lib Dem is worse than choosing between Mutt and Jeff.

I think a concern for Boris backers from the Survation poll is the 62/27 split on an apology to the Queen. The Prime Minister would do well to reflect on the comments by Jess Philips in the HoC last night. Some contrition from Boris would have been welcome.

However the strategy from the Prime Minister is clear. His intention is to weaponize BREXIT to the maximum and use any language to inflame the issue and use Trumpian tactics in the coming general election campaign.

We now have a Prime Minister who leads a party that is Conservative in name only and is more akin to a BREXIT-Lite front. He has morphed in to a "Donald Mini Me" and it is an ugly sight to behold.

Sandpit said:

Wow, reading back over the last 12 hours, everybody needs to seriously calm down.

Politicians, journalists, commenters on blogs and social media. Everyone.

I think a day’s hard work is preferable to another day like yesterday, with everyone shouting past each other and almost no-one listening to a different point of view.

Back to lurking for me, laters.

Same here. Real work of generating export earnings

malcolmg said:

TOPPING said:

Tabman said:

TOPPING said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.

Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?

Absolutely. But trying to second guess outcomes if voting LD is a dangerous game and the stakes are high.

Swinson is an annoying duffer, voting Lib Dem is worse than choosing between Mutt and Jeff.

If you lived in England, who would you (consider) vote for?

Interesting comment from Tim Farron. How many fewer Tory MPs by next weekend?

https://twitter.com/timfarron/status/1176920458865909761?s=19

eek said:

OldKingCole said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Time may well tell. It often does.

And I too think Boris' comments to Ms Sheriff yesterday were appalling. I wonder what Carrie said to him when he got home last night.

Nothing because she knows how he would react

That might end up being important. Maggie had Dennis to tell her the game was up. He could do that because he'd known and loved her for ages. Who has Boris got when it goes pearshaped, whenever that is?

OldKingCole said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Time may well tell. It often does.

Yep, The Cleggasm didn't occurr until the GE campaign.

TGOHF2 said:

Tabman said:

TOPPING said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.

Can you not see the utter contempt in which Swinson holds Corbyn?

And Boris, and 17.4m voters...

“Bollocks to non Lib Dem’s” - how very inflammatory.

No apostrophe required 😎

DavidL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DavidL said:

On topic this suggests to me that the SC case has not, at least yet, moved the polling at all. It is entirely consistent with existing trends and indeed other polling that we have seen, the Tories slipping back slowly, Labour going absolutely nowhere (usually down in fact) and the lib Dems consolidating the remain vote.

Do you expect a specific reaction in the polls to the SC case?

We've seen three polls in a row with the Tories slipping back. On an instinctive level that convinces me that there's a trend, but statistically I know that it's still indistinguishable from chance.

Well maybe. It's not every day that the highest Court in the land rules that the conduct of the PM had been unlawful. But there is little sign that it made anyone pause for thought because everything is seen through the Brexit prism. Multiple vox pops on the BBC had leavers saying, at least he is trying to do something whilst remainers simply became even more confirmed in their views.

We desperately need some middle ground but it is barren, neglected and traversed by multiple munitions from both sides making it a dangerous place.

Corbyn is middle ground on BREXIT despite the "moderates" trying to drag him to be a Tory Swindon extremist.

Interesting take

https://twitter.com/heidiallen75/status/1177113415178866688

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Foxy said:

TOPPING said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.

Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.

I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

(Note the source)

It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.

Has to be said that whoever wins if Rupa Huq was defeated she would be no loss to national life. Vile excuse for a human being. And I'm just thinking about her racism but her support for her equally loathsome family.

Loathsomeness is not a trait she is short of.

There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.

The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

surbiton19 said:

The JC has seen a YouGov poll conducted in Finchley and Golders Green on September 20 which shows the Lib Dems on 31 per cent, the Conservatives on 28 per cent and Labour trailing in third place with 23 per cent.

The JC also understands that a predictive vote poll published by the online company Flavible in the north London seat earlier this month had the Lib Dems on 30 per cent with the Conservatives and Labour both on 26 per cent.
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/luciana-berger-to-stand-for-liberal-democrats-in-finchley-golders-green-1.489253

If this is the case, similar changes could also be happening in Hendon and Chipping Barnet.

Wow.

If that is for real, Labour in particular are in much, much bigger trouble than I thought. This is a seat where the Lib vote has never gone above 17%.

TTFN.

Jonathan said:

There are two people who can end this IMO. Gove or Javid. If either were to resign or publicly deviate from Boris’ scorched Earth strategy, Boris’ time would be up.

Neither will because it would end their careers

Tabman said:

The (g)nats really dislike Swinson.

So do the Corbynites. They realise the threat.

ydoethur said:

TOPPING said:

Foxy said:

TOPPING said:

Ploppikins said:

Extraordinary times, just look at last night's parliament. And yet Swinson still struggles to reach Cleggs 2010 performance.

Many erstwhile and current Tories probably reflect my own thinking. Any thoughts of voting LD given the utter Tossers that now run "our" party are severely mitigated by the thought that such behaviour might somehow let Corbyn in.

Which constituency are you in? There aren't many three way marginal.

I am in an instructive constituency. Ealing Central and Acton. Super remain with a Lab MP about which there was some kind of an anti-Semitism issue.

https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-mp-rupa-huq-taunted-employee-over-star-of-david-badge-report-claims-2/

(Note the source)

It went from Con/Lab super marginal to overwhelming Lab gain (LDs went Lab, UKIP went Cons). On the doorstep there were plenty of former Cons voting Lab because of brexit and also because they thought it unlikely Lab could win. Will they now go LD? That would split the remain vote and possibly send it back to Cons.

This shows that everything is in play imo in every constituency.

Has to be said that whoever wins if Rupa Huq was defeated she would be no loss to national life. Vile excuse for a human being. And I'm just thinking about her racism but her support for her equally loathsome family.

What have you got against Konnie Huq!?