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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wasting Time? How the Article 50 extension has been used
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wasting Time? How the Article 50 extension has been used
When the last Article 50 extension was obtained on 10 April, Donald Tusk said: “Please do not waste this time.”
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Two things which, for reasons only known to themselves, it has been rather reluctant to do.
The difference is of course that there is ample case and statute law on how County Councils should close Libraries. My understanding only the recent Sri Lankan case is an obvious precedent in a Westminster system.
As a donor to the Crowdfunder for the Scottish case I see today as Win/Win/Win. Total defeat will lead the next non Tory government to put prorogation into statute law. Es5ablishing judiciability even if this prorogation is ruled lawful is a huge step forward regardless. If the prorogation is voided then that's a Euromillions win. There are bigger issues at play here than Brexit. This is Executive vs Legislature stuff that has been running since the Norman Yoke.
In this case the public justification, which is correct and true, is that in addition to actually abusing its power to prorogue, his team has also threatened to abuse its responsibility for proposing a successor, and its power to set the date of the election. So they need to block those paths, preferably by making sure an extension is agreed, before they open up those particular paths that he says he's going to abuse.
The political self-interest reason is that Boris is trying to get away with pretending that he's realistically negotiating a deal, while also telling people who don't want a deal that he's not going to accept the kind of deal that he could realistically negotiate. So the other parties want to let that process play out before they agree to an election, so he can only ride the one horse or the other.
But if I were the EU, I'd still be tempted to give a 2nd chance. If we get another extension, then we should have another election pretty soon after.
Now there's a chance that leads to deadlock once again.
But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.
Anyway, this thread is an excellent argument against future extensions, given that industry and the public seem to want the uncertainty over.
I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?
Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
Many years ago a small classroom at college had several small pen and ink drawings eerily showing lumpen children playing in crumbling Roman ruins at dusk. Those pictures haunt me to this day. We are they.
What goes around comes around Mr Tusk.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3537/Will-Donald-Trump-be-impeached-in-his-first-term
Buttigieg dropping truth bombs...
If it really doesn't give a shit as to the way we leave, if their lines are of the most unalterable shade of crimson, it says you have the deal. Then Parliament votes on May's Deal or No Deal.
At least the incoming Commission in November knows where it stands. And May's Leagacy may yet be her Deal is what Parliament enacts - at the fourth time of asking. And yet Boris will get the political credit for making Brexit happen. Having craftily used the extension the EU gave us in March....and done what May could not do.
Brexit.
If Boris brings back May's deal he will have a rebellion in his own party. Can't see many Lab Mps backing it either.
You forget that Boris and many in the Conservative Party have already voted for May's Deal. So it comes down to Labour. Are they going to permit No Deal? Really? What planet are you on?
While the speaker can prevent Mays deal IV in the old session it can be presented again in the new session without any changes if desired.
Which is why Boris needs at least a one day prorogation, even if he loses today.
Although part of me would love the delicious irony of the SC ruling prorogation was unlawful and yet our Brexiting by No Deal because there is no further extension beyond 31st October and the Speaker wouldn't allow May's Deal to come back again..... What a legacy that would be!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/23/johnson-hints-at-major-reforms-to-tax-and-industry-post-brexit
As it happens, I regard the last few months as mildly constructive. We are testing different Brexit solutions to destruction (and in the process wrecking the reputations of their proponents). Not until there is only rubble will there be progress.
No Deal can't happen unless this parliament wants it (it doesn't) or the EU makes it happen (don't think it will).
Many left-wing Democrat activists will read into it what they want to but he hasn’t committed to anything at all.
https://youtu.be/oJ-9R6NCZ0A
No more extensions - and the UK goes out of the EU on their terms. What's not to love in Brussels?
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1176376376989032450
It is just a small win, the first stage is accepting you have a problem, which will require more people to give voice to that problem. Pretty soon those small wins start adding up. The millenials will be more important electorally than the baby boomers soon.
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1174950179234959360?s=21
Looks like a straightforward case of GIGO to me, but I share in case others feel differently.
There was a disappointing lack of wigs earlier. I hope the Supreme Court appears suitably attired this time.
Still a shame we don't have Law Lords any more. Much more impressive title.
(Unless you misbehave .....
From his past record, he’s very much an evidence-based policy maker, and creative on implementing solutions too.
I'm not sure I see a majority for either Corbyn or a GoNU.
I was wondering if one of the reasons they were asking about possible remedies is because they are concerned they can't void this decision even if they find it shouldn't have happened. After all, if they do that all the laws passed in the washup will be voided, but they have already started to take effect. Meanwhile, if they order a recall during the Tory conference that will certainly look like them playing politics. Even Dominic Cummings would struggle to miss a goal left as open as that.
I don't envy them, but I also have to say I wasn't impressed by the reasoning of the Scottish judges. Their way out could be to endorse the judgment of every other judge with a rider that since this power is open to abuse Parliament should consider limiting prorogations to e.g. fourteen days.
Which would still wreck Johnson, indeed rather more effectively than a ruling he's a liar:
It doesn't necessarily mean they will lose. If Cummings and Johnson had been somewhat competent in following a process, I doubt the claimants' case would stand a chance of winning.
No, it’s not Thomas Hardy but it’s more interesting for the content less travelled. For example, it really comes across about how hard he works (he really wasn’t an essay crisis guy) and I was struck by his description of Norman Lamont as deeply sensitive, which I didn’t know. His experiences of Black Wednesday were formative, and he is deeply anti-Euro. He also knew the Tory party was toast as soon as John Smith sadly passed away, because he recognised just how skilled Blair was as the inevitable successor.
Also, some things that you easily forget with time are brought back to life: such as how virtually everyone smoked (still) in the early 1990s, and you couldn’t see the other side of the room in committee rooms and ministerial offices.
Easy to forget now.
And thanks. Compliments from you are as rare as sensible politicians these days.
Whether the government’s conduct was so bad as to justify court intervention is much more debatable. The government has done its level best to allow the court to draw adverse inferences as to its motives but the fact the Parliament was not wholly thwarted in its oversight of the executive is a strong point in the government’s favour.
I’m really glad I’m not one of the judges.
Are you saying that my suggested scenario of the government resigning and then Tories+others blocking any alternative isn't possible?
So I don't see that as a problem. However, I could be wrong.
On topic, the whole of Brexit is a waste of time. It was never going to succeed.
But a very interesting read.