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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wasting Time? How the Article 50 extension has been used

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  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    GIN1138 said:

    Will we never have another State Opening/new session again then?

    We can, if the government prorogues for the usual time of 6/7 days.
    He can re-prorogue of course, but navigating the obstacles of the full judgment (as yet unseen by me) will be a minefield. And susceptible to further challenge.
  • We will now move to have political vetting of supreme court justices.
  • Supreme Court 11 Boris 0

    Even Man City would envy that scoreline.
  • ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬

    The courts will be very much our future. Every single decision a government makes, from now on, is going to end up in one.
    Feel free to look to the USA for clues as to whether that is a good idea.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Time for the Queen to resign. Surely. Abusing her powers

    Gina Miller. The heroine of our age
  • Chris said:

    In normal circumstances surely the prime minister would have to resign.

    Well, yes, but the same was true of May in December, or January. Or for Boris when he lost his "confidence vote". We're well past the bounds of normality, alas.
  • Well done the Scots!
  • Mr. Eagles, Hannibal thrashed the Romans multiple times and roamed around Italy for a decade. When he left it was because his countrymen back home were failing to live up to his standards of success.

    Boris, meanwhile, has managed to lose MPs, lose votes (has he won any yet?), and now appears to have been found to have deceived the Queen.
  • Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
    It might well. Ousting a Prime Minister over this is presentationally a lot more attractive than ousting a Prime Minister over Brexit.
  • I see the PM's continued his stunning run of failures.

    He's like an anti-Hannibal.

    No he's just like Hannibal.

    Wins a few battles then gets absolutely spanked, thus losing the war.
    He is more the antithesis of Alexander the Great. Alexander never lost. Boris has never won. POBWAS
  • Brom said:

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.

    What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.
    He now has a base - just like Trump?
    All his base are belong to Lady Hale currently, which is nice.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited September 2019
    When is Boris due to give his speech at the UN?

    Perhaps he will deliver a homily on the value of the rule of law.

    EDIT - Due in the evening local time.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    A unanimous decision is a big shock.

    No one saw that coming .
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited September 2019
    So Scottish law provides gentle corrective to English law. Another triumph for the Union.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited September 2019

    tlg86 said:

    Is this good for Boris?

    Depends if Cummings has war-gamed this outcome.
    'Deploy Army Detachment Steiner!'
    Obergruppenführer Cummings instructing his origami troops.
  • This is what democracy and sovereignty look like.
  • It will be interesting to see how moderate Tory MPs react.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    The SNP woman just said the Queen acted unlawfully. Oops.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    They're all calling for Johnson to resign. Where's HYUFD when you need him?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Augustine said:

    Our constitution is officially screwed.

    No, it's not.
    Rather it has been tidied up quite a bit.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    Quite a lot of people owe Jolyon Maugham an apology.

    Unfortunately this judgment will make the likes of Cherry, Maugham and all the others behind this even more unsufferable....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
    It might well. Ousting a Prime Minister over this is presentationally a lot more attractive than ousting a Prime Minister over Brexit.
    Don't hold your breath.
  • We will now move to have political vetting of supreme court justices.

    I think the 11-0 surely limits that nonsense, if it had been 6-5 or 7-4 either way yes we would quickly go down that terrible route.
  • So Boris made the Queen commit an unlawful act.

    No point in blaming the staff, it's on her, time to send in the next Queen
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    One thing seems clear. Brexit is even deader now than it even looked an hour ago.
  • Boris Johnson = Varro.
  • Well done the Scots!

    Indeed.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited September 2019

    We will now move to have political vetting of supreme court justices.

    It would have to be a pretty extreme form of vetting to make a difference in this case, considering that the decision was unanimous.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Dave's eyebrow instructions to HMQ slightly pale into insignificance when we're talking egregious actions by PMs.
  • TOPPING said:

    "Parliament has not been prorogued"

    FFS FFS FFS FFS FFS

    Emergency resolution in support of No Deal Brexit today before Labour MPs have time to get back from Brighton? Or later on while the SNP aren't around?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Did they say the Inner Court decision was thrown out but teh English High Court decision was upheld
  • Tory party conference cancelled?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    AndyJS said:

    Let's have a general election. It's the only way to clear the air.

    100%
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,004
    edited September 2019
    Worth reposting as a guide to Domski's next move in the wargame.

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1175777835979563008?s=20
  • ‪I have not felt so much pride in being British for many, many years. The grown-ups have fought back.‬
  • Utterly damning and unanimous. No possible argument for Johnson NOT to resign immediately.
  • ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬

    Well, the Scottish justice system delivered. The English justice system rolled over and let the despot clown tickle their tummy.
  • It will be interesting to see how moderate Tory MPs react.

    Sit quietly murmering, they might get Cummings out, probably nothing else.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    We will now move to have political vetting of supreme court justices.

    No, the Executive just needs to behave and understand that an unwritten constitution does not allow them to do whatever they want.

    Cummings was trying to be too clever.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬

    The courts will be very much our future. Every single decision a government makes, from now on, is going to end up in one.
    Why ?

    In most cases the law will be quite clear. It is only where something utterly out of the ordinary constitutionally takes place that we find ourselves in this sort of situation.
    Of course Brexit might well throw up a few more such cases.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Johnson has lied to his family, to his employers, to the electorate and to Parliament. Of course he would lie to the Queen.

    the new Tony Blair
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Oh lord, Blackford on now....
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    In these circumstances the PM must resign.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Governments have prorogued over recesses in the recent past.
    The banter timeline requires John Major to be taken to court for Misfeasance In Public Office for his dodgy prorogation in 1997, then.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Tory party conference cancelled?

    Tory party cancelled?
  • Chris said:


    We will now move to have political vetting of supreme court justices.

    It would have to be a pretty extreme form of vetting to make a difference in this case, considering that the decision was unanimous.
    Yes. That is an incredibly important detail. Absolutely brutal judgement for Johnson.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Boris is a crim!
  • Buffoon - POBWAS
  • ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬

    The courts will be very much our future. Every single decision a government makes, from now on, is going to end up in one.
    Feel free to look to the USA for clues as to whether that is a good idea.
    It will not be necessary if the Executive follows proper legal advice, instead of the advice of fanatics like Cummings, and a PM behaving like a poundshop Robert Mugabe
  • Johnson has lied to his family, to his employers, to the electorate and to Parliament. Of course he would lie to the Queen.

    You missed out conspiring to have an inconvenient journalist beaten up.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/14/journalist-stuart-collier-boris-johnson-phone-call-darius-guppy-demands-apology
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Opposition parties going to look absurd now if they don't VONC.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Utterly damning and unanimous. No possible argument for Johnson NOT to resign immediately.

    Assume this is a parody account
  • Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
    It might well. Ousting a Prime Minister over this is presentationally a lot more attractive than ousting a Prime Minister over Brexit.
    The Conservative Party can get rid of him too, secret ballot and everything.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    So Boris made the Queen commit an unlawful act.

    No point in blaming the staff, it's on her, time to send in the next Queen
    Regina Miller
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    Opposition parties going to look absurd now if they don't VONC.

    Or block a GE?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    "Parliament has not been prorogued"

    FFS FFS FFS FFS FFS

    Emergency resolution in support of No Deal Brexit today before Labour MPs have time to get back from Brighton? Or later on while the SNP aren't around?
    LOL
  • Boris will have to resign - he will be forced to. No way out of this. He has just been destroyed by Baroness Hale. 11-0 against and lost on all points. Commentators did not expect that and the significance has not sunk in. GONU by friday I suspect.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    TOPPING said:

    "Parliament has not been prorogued"

    FFS FFS FFS FFS FFS

    Emergency resolution in support of No Deal Brexit today before Labour MPs have time to get back from Brighton? Or later on while the SNP aren't around?
    DoM HAs warGAMeD tHiS.
  • Quite a lot of people owe Jolyon Maugham an apology.

    Unfortunately this judgment will make the likes of Cherry, Maugham and all the others behind this even more unsufferable....
    I find that hard to believe although Cherry deserves some credit for standing up for the rights of women against the current trend for lunacy.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    So what stops an immediate further proroguation complying with the requirements of the Supreme Court.
  • Will Corbyn ask Bercow to delay reconvening the Commons until after he's given his speech to conference?
  • It will be interesting to see how moderate Tory MPs react.

    The ones left in the party need to locate their backbones first.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Fenster said:

    AndyJS said:

    Let's have a general election. It's the only way to clear the air.

    100%
    It won't solve anything. Brexit must be slain first via a referendum - May's Deal or remain.

  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Soubry confirming what this was all about - blocking Brexit.
  • Johnson has lied to his family, to his employers, to the electorate and to Parliament. Of course he would lie to the Queen.

    the new Tony Blair
    At least Blair was good at it. BoZo can't even be competent in his dishonesty.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Scott_P said:
    Yes, just wait for a GE and win it. He's miles ahead in the polls.
  • Augustine said:

    Our constitution is officially screwed.

    England’s constitution is screwed. Scotland’s is looking remarkably robust. Still a bit of spunk after 312 dry years.
  • Gosh. What now?

    Benedict Cumberbatch's agent is on standby.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,616

    GIN1138 said:

    Will we never have another State Opening/new session again then?

    We can, if the government prorogues for the usual time of 6/7 days.
    He can re-prorogue of course, but navigating the obstacles of the full judgment (as yet unseen by me) will be a minefield. And susceptible to further challenge.
    Hard to see how a standard few days for a Queen's Speech wouldn't be lawful. That would be saying that the PM could not call a Quen's Speech. Which would be a leap. A Queen's Speech next Thurday, for example? If security can be put in place in time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited September 2019
    Brom said:

    Utterly damning and unanimous. No possible argument for Johnson NOT to resign immediately.

    Assume this is a parody account
    Hey remember when you slagged off Dinah Rose QC for calling this outcome?

    Are we sure you're not a parody account?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Scott_P said:
    The Tories would be destroyed in a GE if they do that.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    I am seriously concerned for the safety of Gina Miller. The number of morons out there who will, being morons, be likely to do something idiotic is large.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Interesting how little effect this has had on either the currency markets or the Brexit betting markets.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    The government's defence was pitiful. There was the one memo in August about proroguing but no explanation as to why 5 weeks not the usual 6 days.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    So what stops an immediate further proroguation complying with the requirements of the Supreme Court.

    Nothing - but I suspect the SC in its full judgment has made it virtually impossible on the present facts for Boris to so comply.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Has the Queen resigned yet?
  • ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬

    The courts will be very much our future. Every single decision a government makes, from now on, is going to end up in one.
    Only if Governments try to play fast and loose with the law.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    So what stops an immediate further proroguation complying with the requirements of the Supreme Court.

    Nothing except the last half of your sentence
  • Today's judgment will be a foundation stone for constitutional law for generations to come. That will be far more important than its political effects in the long term.

    The government has only itself to blame. It courted this result by its conduct throughout.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Johnson has lied to his family, to his employers, to the electorate and to Parliament. Of course he would lie to the Queen.

    the new Tony Blair
    At least Blair was good at it. BoZo can't even be competent in his dishonesty.
    Blair had luck, Boris is a faecal Midas.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Not clear why any of this matters much, beyond continuing to paint a narrative to the casual observer that the establishment is trying to block Brexit.

    The government can still prorogue Parliament again for a Queen's speech but the guidance given was that 4-6 days was the normal period of prorogation.

    The Commons is still free to exercise its sovereignty to VONC the Executive but this seems even less likely after this week's action in Brighton than it did in September.

    So on we go, bumbling headlong to the 31st October.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cummings must have war-gamed this outcome. In wonder what his next move is.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Johnson has lied to his family, to his employers, to the electorate and to Parliament. Of course he would lie to the Queen.

    Though the court was quite careful not to look into that, but only the effects of his advice, and that they exceed the justification offered for it.

    One might infer from the fact that he offered no substantial justification to the court for the extended prorogation that he lied - but that lie, of course, lies in the political sphere.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,216
    Parliament is sitting

    Does the mace get put back now ?
    Does the mace need to be put back now to pass laws ?
    Can the Tories ambush parliament whilst Jez is doing his speech ?
    Can Labour ambush parliament whist the Tories are doing their speech ?
    Is the Queens Speech now going ahead ?
    Will the opposition actually VONC Johnson now ?
    Are we heading for an election ?

  • ‪I have not felt so much pride in being British for many, many years. The grown-ups have fought back.‬

    Absolutely. The question is, when will the grown-ups "take back control" of the two main political parties.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Boris should go. If he had any honour it would.
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    The government's defence was pitiful. There was the one memo in August about proroguing but no explanation as to why 5 weeks not the usual 6 days.

    I said this on day 1- had the Govt said "this Remainer parliament is out to block and frustrate the democratic decision of the people and so I am shutting it down for 5 weeks until the EU summit", then I think the decision today could have been different.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited September 2019
    This might finally reunite the country in a loathing for the corrupt Johnson administration
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Gina Miller "This was a victory for Parliamentary Sovereignty"

    Brexiteers will be cheering her on, right?
  • surbiton19surbiton19 Posts: 1,469

    So Boris made the Queen commit an unlawful act.

    No point in blaming the staff, it's on her, time to send in the next Queen
    Where is Charlie when we need him ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    So what stops an immediate further proroguation complying with the requirements of the Supreme Court.

    The HoC will probably have a go at making that impossible.

    Would Johnson even want to try? Her Maj might tell him to sod off, which would be a bit embarrassing. Not to mention he'd be straight back in court.
  • So what stops an immediate further proroguation complying with the requirements of the Supreme Court.

    There isn't one, other than a short few days to prepare for a Queen's speech.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Soubry confirming what this was all about - blocking Brexit.

    She said there is a deal on the table.
  • Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
    What happened to honour and decency? Do we not even pretend anymore that those are requirements for a PM?
    All governments, past, present and in the future can and have lost court cases. That is what the courts are for. Did May resign when she lost the Miller case?

    The court has ruled, the government must implement its ruling. That's separation of powers in a nutshell. Courts shouldn't result in changes of government. That would put far too much undue pressure on court cases which should stand on their own merit.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Fenster said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Tories would be destroyed in a GE if they do that.
    In which case the Tories will be destroyed.

    On the other hand how can the Tory Party be led by someone found to have lied to the Queen.
  • We will now move to have political vetting of supreme court justices.

    Well you Leavers want to join the U, S of A. Get used to Yankification.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Any Tories still playing the "BoZo is a winner" card?
This discussion has been closed.