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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Wasting Time? How the Article 50 extension has been used

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Unanimous judgement.

    What is it?
    They haven't said yet.
  • Is this good for Boris?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Is this good for Boris?

    Depends if Cummings has war-gamed this outcome.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    tlg86 said:

    Is this good for Boris?

    Depends if Cummings has war-gamed this outcome.
    He must have prepared for a negative outcome (from his point of view).
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Seems clear this is heading towards unlawful exercise of prerogative power.

    Boris loses.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited September 2019

    Nigelb said:

    Satire is once again pronounced dead...



    Those are fair-ish points.
    On the other hand, no one is proposing abolishing the leadership position...
    Happy to be corrected here but whilst the NEC could propose abolishing his position they couldn't force an election.

    Worth noting that when Corbyn was challenged he was happy to go to the members, it was his opponents that wanted to stitch it up without the members say.

    Undemocratic seems to mean Labour members voting for what they want and getting their way within Labour, presumably democratic would be if the Labour members were overruled and decisions were made in line with the wishes of Conservative members like Rottenborough....
    There are already rules in place to permit a deputy leader challenge. Just as there are rules in place for a leadership challenge. Why not follow the rules rather than try to short circuit them?
    The NEC did follow the rules, it is allowed to propose to abolish the position. No rules were broken by doing that.

    The membership can't vote to challenge the deputy, something that is actually undemocratic but the people complaining about a lack of democracy don't actually care about.

    It is almost as if these people who call Labour members cultists don't actually care about Labour members views...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,856
    This sounds bad for the government.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Boris loses 11-0
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Boris has lost.

    Oh well, will he prorogue again?!
  • Of course it would be justiciable. If it was prorogued until 1 November that would be unreasonable. Why the government didn't make more of a justification of the specific dates which were reasonable in my eyes I don't get.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1176430787601883138

    I thought it was the motive that would make it unlawful.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Motive irrelevant - "no need to consider".
    Eminently sensible.
  • Doesn’t sound good for Boris

  • rkrkrk said:

    .

    But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.

    There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this week
    Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.

    I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?

    Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
    I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.

    I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
    Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.
    Start with the seats that were held at the 2010 and 2005
    Huh?

    Are you telling me the Lib Dems are about to re-gain Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey from 4th place and 12% of the vote?
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179

    This sounds bad for the government.

    Think the SC is laying the ground to prevent Boris simply re-proroguing. They are cutting him off at the pass here. He needs a clear valid reason to prorogue to mid October. Parliament will be back today I am fairly sure now.
  • tlg86 said:

    Is this good for Boris?

    Depends if Cummings has war-gamed this outcome.
    'Deploy Army Detachment Steiner!'
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    No audio!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1176430787601883138

    I thought it was the motive that would make it unlawful.

    No - they have decided instead that the effect of prorogation is the test.
  • Ouch
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878


    rkrkrk said:

    .

    But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.

    There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this week
    Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.

    I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?

    Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
    I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.

    I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
    Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.
    Start with the seats that were held at the 2010 and 2005
    Huh?

    Are you telling me the Lib Dems are about to re-gain Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey from 4th place and 12% of the vote?
    No, but you asked for 30+ seats. England and Wales held in 2005 would give you those 30.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Sounds bad for Boris.
  • I will die from a surfeit of popcorn.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Can Boris reply to this with another prorogation of normal length?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Boris has been handed his balls.
  • IANAL, and law topics usually bore me silly - mostly because I don't have the terminology or background knowledge (in the same way RFC's may coonfuse non-techies).

    However, this speech from Lady Hale has been excellent - at least for the bits I could hear. Clear, concise, and even a non-legal numpty as myself can follow it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Prorogation UNLAWFUL !!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://twitter.com/JoshuaRozenberg/status/1176430787601883138

    I thought it was the motive that would make it unlawful.

    No - they have decided instead that the effect of prorogation is the test.
    Ah, so we're not going to get a verdict on "Did Boris lie to Her Maj?"
  • The world needs more Lady Hales and fewer Boris Johnsons.
  • dr_spyn said:
    Governments have prorogued over recesses in the recent past.
  • Christ
  • Scott_P said:

    Prorogation UNLAWFUL !!!

    Hahahahahahaaaaa!

    Choke, choke.

    (Expires).
  • Nigelb said:


    rkrkrk said:

    .

    But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.

    There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this week
    Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.

    I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?

    Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
    I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.

    I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
    Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.
    That would be price sensitive information. :smile:
    It would certainly be credibility-stretching information.
  • Absolutely devastating.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Nicely cuts through the bullshit offered post prorogation.
  • I see the PM's continued his stunning run of failures.

    He's like an anti-Hannibal.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    So the Benn Act isn't law?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    dr_spyn said:
    Governments have prorogued over recesses in the recent past.
    Yes but not at the time of other constitutional changes.
  • So Boris made the Queen commit an unlawful act.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Cummings might have to resign!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Parliament has not been prorogued...
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Wow.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    So the Benn Act isn't law?

    The Benn act is law - it become law prior to Parliament (not) being prorogued.

    Keep dreaming though.
  • I see the PM's continued his stunning run of failures.

    He's like an anti-Hannibal.

    No he's just like Hannibal.

    Wins a few battles then gets absolutely spanked, thus losing the war.
  • Roger said:

    Cummings might have to resign!

    Isn’t Cummings already scheduled to have his lobotomy anyway?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    I just can't help feeling that Boris and Dom are high-fiving right now. Why? Not 100% sure but they must have foreseen this.
  • Of course it would be justiciable. If it was prorogued until 1 November that would be unreasonable. Why the government didn't make more of a justification of the specific dates which were reasonable in my eyes I don't get.

    Cos Keen is thick as shit, but thinks he’s a genius.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    So Boris made the Queen commit an unlawful act.

    No - the advice offered was unlawful.
    The response to the advice automatic (from the POV of the court).
  • Just bought Boris exit in 2019 and by end of September
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    edited September 2019
    So who will win the race to be the first MP banging on the gates of Westminster demanding "Let me in!!!"
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    VONC tomorrow then?
    Corbyn in No 10 by weekend?
  • So the Benn Act isn't law?

    It received Royal Assent before the second vote on whether to have a general election. So it is still law.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Lock him up!
  • Not sitting on the fence, are they?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    And that is unanimous?
  • This is monumental and magnificent.
  • Gosh. What now?
  • Parliament has not been prorogued - official.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Total fail for the crook Johnson.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Not prorogued.
    Unanimous.

    Now up to Parliament what happens next.
  • This goes much further than I thought.

    Very damning.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1176432204391559176

    3 years on, MPs wondering what to do next.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    edited September 2019
    Wow. Didn't expect that. Dastardly yes, but I thought Cummings was within his rights.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Will we never have another State Opening/new session again then?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    "Parliament has not been prorogued"

    FFS FFS FFS FFS FFS
  • Chris said:

    And that is unanimous?

    Yes
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    In normal circumstances surely the prime minister would have to resign.
  • TOPPING said:

    I just can't help feeling that Boris and Dom are high-fiving right now. Why? Not 100% sure but they must have foreseen this.

    It’s all gone wrong for them. They were hoping Boris would get banged up so he could campaign from his prison cell as the Mandela of Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679
    edited September 2019
    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298


    rkrkrk said:

    .

    But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.

    There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this week
    Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.

    I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?

    Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
    I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.

    I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
    Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.
    Does anyone else have any opinions on SNP vs Lib Dems most seats?

    I was personally leaning towards the SNP (although not certain) with it being relatively close.
    Interesting question. Lib Dems got 57 in 2010, with 11 of those in Scotland. They broke 20% of the vote then.

    They won't do so well in Scotland this time, so I'd probably make the SNP favourites.

  • rkrkrk said:

    .

    But on the other hand, it might lead to a remain alliance win (2nd ref between remain or soft leave). Alternatively, it could mean a Boris majority. Well at least then the EU know Britain really will leave, and promptly too.

    There is no remain alliance; it was still born in Brighton this week
    Labour, Greens, SNP and maybe PC would work together to avoid a Tory government and hold a 2nd ref. There is every chance in terms of seat numbers that the SNP are more important than the Lib Dems.

    I'm not going to bet on it but are there odds on SNP finishing with more seats than the Lib Dems? or the reverse?

    Just curious how punters/bookmakers would have priced it.
    I see the SNP somewhere in the low to mid 40s, I'd expect the Lib Dems to have more.

    I'd price the Lib Dems somewhere around 1.75 favs
    Please list the 30+ seats the Liberal Democrats are going to gain in order to overtake the Scottish National Party.
    Start with the seats that were held at the 2010 and 2005
    Huh?

    Are you telling me the Lib Dems are about to re-gain Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey from 4th place and 12% of the vote?
    No, but you asked for 30+ seats. England and Wales held in 2005 would give you those 30.
    Mike said “start with”, implying that these would fall at the very least.

    He said nothing about only England and Wales.
  • I expected this. Not surprised.
  • ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.

    What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Chris said:

    And that is unanimous?

    As Mrs Slocombe intoned :

    "We are unanimous in this."
  • Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Boris is screwed. If he doesn't now resign, then he will be removed in short order by the Commons now surely?
  • Brom said:

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.

    What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.
    Only if they are morons. Oh, hang on...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Boris, honour - have those two words ever been in the same sentence without not also being there.
  • Brom said:

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.

    What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.
    He now has a base - just like Trump?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Will we never have another State Opening/new session again then?

    We can, if the government prorogues for the usual time of 6/7 days.
  • Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
  • I expected this to be bad for the government, but this is in another timezone of badness.
  • JameiJamei Posts: 59
    We're here all because of the wretched FTPA.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign.

    What are you on about? No chance he'll resign. His base will love this.
    He now has a base - just like Trump?
    Well he's certainly rattled the FBPE lot
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬

    The courts will be very much our future. Every single decision a government makes, from now on, is going to end up in one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    "Pretty cataclysmic" first comment by QC on R5.

    Pretty accurate description.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    This is monumental and magnificent.

    A model of clarity that even I could understand.

    And sets a test for any future prorogation - which does not tie down a future PM to any particular time limit, but rather prevents their using it for purposes other than the obvious one intended, should that significantly interfere with Parliament's democratic constitutional rights of legislation and oversight.
  • Our constitution is officially screwed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    VONC tomorrow then?
    Corbyn in No 10 by weekend?

    Why hold Parliament this week? - Bring it back on Monday to overshadow the Tory conference
  • ‪Monumental and magnificent. The courts were our last bulkwark against despotism and they have delivered. ‬

    +1
  • Quite a lot of people owe Jolyon Maugham an apology.
  • Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Parliament can VONC him if they want. Always had that option.
    What happened to honour and decency? Do we not even pretend anymore that those are requirements for a PM?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Let's have a general election. It's the only way to clear the air.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Quite a lot of people owe Jolyon Maugham an apology.

    Suppose he owes Darren Grimes one too
  • PendduPenddu Posts: 265
    eek said:

    Absolutely devastating judgment for any party, absolutely devastating if you're the sitting Prime Minister.

    If Boris Johnson had any honour he'd resign, but since he doesn't, he will not.

    Boris, honour - have those two words ever been in the same sentence without not also being there.
    Boris was Honour and off her all night?
  • Johnson has lied to his family, to his employers, to the electorate and to Parliament. Of course he would lie to the Queen.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    edited September 2019
    Can we conclude from this that the Supreme Court is not likely to be lenient if Johnson tries to circumvent the Benn Act?
This discussion has been closed.