politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Cummings & Johnson strategy could well be dubbed as the ch
Comments
-
Sinn Feinrcs1000 said:
To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.Byronic said:
That’s surprisingly sensible from Labour. Wait and delay. Make Boris go to Brussels and ask for the extension he never wanted. Terrible Optics for BJAlastairMeeks said:
But there is one alternative outcome. What if Boris refuses to ask?
Then, as per the surrender bill, Brussels will impose an extension, to be rubber-stamped by parliament. What if it is 3 years? Or 5? 10? Where are we then?! And what if it has conditions?
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
650 empty seats sounds bliss0 -
He's only going to look untrustworthy if he has co-operated.Richard_Nabavi said:
The trap is that, just like Theresa May with March 29th but in even stronger terms, he's promised absolutely that we will leave on October 31st. Saying 'oh, but the big boys tied me to the bike shed so I couldn't do it' is not going to go well, Farage will stomp all over it. After all, if Boris didn't have the numbers in parliament, he shouldn't have promised it 'do or die', should he? He'll be shown up as a blustering untrustworthy fool - and amongst the voters he most needs to keep given that he's deliberately thrown away the support of the rest of us.Philip_Thompson said:Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
By expelling Grieve and co he has shot that fox. By demanding an election he is shooting it again. Farage is irrelevant and Ken Clarke and Grieve etc are no longer Tories. The leave-backing public won't blame Boris, Grieve and co will get the blame.
He can rally support between now and the next election whenever it is and say that all this shows why he needs a majority.
Its funny how all those who think Boris is going to be damned post-Halloween if the opposition forces this while he's expelling rebels and demanding a vote are those who opposed Brexit and opposed his policy anyway. I don't see anyone who supported Boris yesterday saying they'll oppose him post-Halloween if the opposition does this.0 -
Another one a bit later, more serious - "The Prime Minister just said 'pathetic' to me - I know what develops real pathos, seeing the experience of people suffering from benefit cuts."Richard_Nabavi said:
That's a good gag by McDonnell.Scott_P said:
McDonnell isn't everyone's cup of tea. But he thinks on his feet, which is a useful skill in Parliament which I for one never really mastered.1 -
Doesn't matter, Nicola + newly shrunken Tory party does not get anywhere near 2/3.GIN1138 said:
Nicola's not playing..Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
0 -
Not quite if we are in the EU at 23:00:00:001 on October 31st then Boris will have spaffed it,TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.1 -
Doesn't need 2/3 for a non-FTPA clauseanothernick said:Doesn't matter, Nicola + newly shrunken Tory party does not get anywhere near 2/3.
0 -
Poor chap. Doesn't know whether he's a member of the Conservative party, unless given help.Scott_P said:0 -
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.0 -
-
Not needed. A simple majority is all that is needed for VoNC.anothernick said:
Doesn't matter, Nicola + newly shrunken Tory party does not get anywhere near 2/3.GIN1138 said:
Nicola's not playing..Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Tories plus DUP plus SNP gets them very close.0 -
There's the other way where Boris only needs a majority of 1.anothernick said:
Doesn't matter, Nicola + newly shrunken Tory party does not get anywhere near 2/3.GIN1138 said:
Nicola's not playing..Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Has to get through the Lords but would HoL dare stand in the way of an election the Commons has voted for?0 -
I think there are a lot of moving parts here.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Tories lose the same number of seats to the LibDems and SNP as they gain from Labour then that's a pro-Leave majority with the DUP. The Tories who have defected/expelled would be replaced with pro-Leave MPs.rcs1000 said:To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
The Alliance is now only six percentage points behind first place in Northern Ireland. They look set to pick up one seat from the DUP. But I think it is also quite likely they pick up a couple of Sinn Fein seats. If they do, that's a few more "No" vote too. And don't forget that the Labour Party loses Kate Hoey and John Mann. And the new MP for Sheffield Hallam is likely to actually turn up.
Plus there will be Conservative MPs elected, such as Theresa May, who might not have rebelled on the vote this time, but who clearly oppose No Deal.
So, yes, the Conservative Party improves it's position if it swaps Rebels for No Dealers. But it's not the only dynamic at work.
To get clarity, we need either the forces of No Deal to get 330 seats plus, or those of Referendum for Remain to get the same. A situation where both groupings are on around 320 seats is not a recipe for good government.0 -
The other alternative is that he sticks to his word, refuses to ask for an extension, and therefore resigns, having also promised to abide by the law.eek said:
Then Boris owns the extension - but has the ability during the campaign to say that he will change things.Byronic said:
That’s surprisingly sensible from Labour. Wait and delay. Make Boris go to Brussels and ask for the extension he never wanted. Terrible Optics for BJAlastairMeeks said:
But there is one alternative outcome. What if Boris refuses to ask?
Then, as per the surrender bill, Brussels will impose an extension, to be rubber-stamped by parliament. What if it is 3 years? Or 5? 10? Where are we then?! And what if it has conditions?
However we won't have left on October 31st and Boris said we would come what may..
Which would be a mildly surprising turn of events, but not utterly impossible.0 -
1,212 comments already on this thread. The most for a long time.0
-
-
Do you think the Alliance will achieve their current polling if there's an election next month?Alanbrooke said:
Sinn Feinrcs1000 said:
To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.Byronic said:
That’s surprisingly sensible from Labour. Wait and delay. Make Boris go to Brussels and ask for the extension he never wanted. Terrible Optics for BJAlastairMeeks said:
But there is one alternative outcome. What if Boris refuses to ask?
Then, as per the surrender bill, Brussels will impose an extension, to be rubber-stamped by parliament. What if it is 3 years? Or 5? 10? Where are we then?! And what if it has conditions?
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
650 empty seats sounds bliss0 -
Short of planting a bomb under the Palace of Westminster, how else is the deadlock to be broken?rcs1000 said:
I think there are a lot of moving parts here.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Tories lose the same number of seats to the LibDems and SNP as they gain from Labour then that's a pro-Leave majority with the DUP. The Tories who have defected/expelled would be replaced with pro-Leave MPs.rcs1000 said:To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
The Alliance is now only six percentage points behind first place in Northern Ireland. They look set to pick up one seat from the DUP. But I think it is also quite likely they pick up a couple of Sinn Fein seats. If they do, that's a few more "No" vote too. And don't forget that the Labour Party loses Kate Hoey and John Mann. And the new MP for Sheffield Hallam is likely to actually turn up.
Plus there will be Conservative MPs elected, such as Theresa May, who might not have rebelled on the vote this time, but who clearly oppose No Deal.
So, yes, the Conservative Party improves it's position if it swaps Rebels for No Dealers. But it's not the only dynamic at work.
To get clarity, we need either the forces of No Deal to get 330 seats plus, or those of Referendum for Remain to get the same. A situation where both groupings are on around 320 seats is not a recipe for good government.0 -
Here's a scenario -
Johnson and Sturgeon agree a 1 line bill for there to be an election on the 15th providing the Benn bill receives RA.
Gov't because it feels the prorogation could be judicially reviewed advises the Queen to suspend the prorogation of parliament (Nothing to do with the 1 line bill needing time for an election getting through the HoL honest Guv'nor)
House of Lords (With its Labour/Lib Dem majority I believe) passes the Benn bill but then blocks the election bill
0 -
Only 1 person can ask for a VoNC and it isn't Boris.nunuone said:
Not needed. A simple majority is all that is needed for VoNC.anothernick said:
Doesn't matter, Nicola + newly shrunken Tory party does not get anywhere near 2/3.GIN1138 said:
Nicola's not playing..Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Tories plus DUP plus SNP gets them very close.0 -
He can... If he is Leader of the Oppositioneek said:
Only 1 person can ask for a VoNC and it isn't Boris.nunuone said:
Not needed. A simple majority is all that is needed for VoNC.anothernick said:
Doesn't matter, Nicola + newly shrunken Tory party does not get anywhere near 2/3.GIN1138 said:
Nicola's not playing..Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Tories plus DUP plus SNP gets them very close.
! 0 -
Cummings can only stay in power while his monkey is the front man.Scott_P said:0 -
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.0 -
Time. A long period of time.Chris said:
Short of planting a bomb under the Palace of Westminster, how else is the deadlock to be broken?rcs1000 said:
I think there are a lot of moving parts here.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Tories lose the same number of seats to the LibDems and SNP as they gain from Labour then that's a pro-Leave majority with the DUP. The Tories who have defected/expelled would be replaced with pro-Leave MPs.rcs1000 said:To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
The Alliance is now only six percentage points behind first place in Northern Ireland. They look set to pick up one seat from the DUP. But I think it is also quite likely they pick up a couple of Sinn Fein seats. If they do, that's a few more "No" vote too. And don't forget that the Labour Party loses Kate Hoey and John Mann. And the new MP for Sheffield Hallam is likely to actually turn up.
Plus there will be Conservative MPs elected, such as Theresa May, who might not have rebelled on the vote this time, but who clearly oppose No Deal.
So, yes, the Conservative Party improves it's position if it swaps Rebels for No Dealers. But it's not the only dynamic at work.
To get clarity, we need either the forces of No Deal to get 330 seats plus, or those of Referendum for Remain to get the same. A situation where both groupings are on around 320 seats is not a recipe for good government.0 -
It's not just a numbers problem though. I can't think of a way to say this without sounding snarky but the problem is that although we have some very *smart* Tories of a variety of viewpoints who are often persuasive enough to change your mind, hardly any of them are on the Boris train.Gallowgate said:
This is nonsense. Half of the regular posters on here are Boris supporters for god sake. You just spend more time blathering to the wall about echo chambres and how ‘out of touch’ everyone is.
I come here specifically to hear points from other perspectives, from a variety of walks of life and geographical locations.0 -
Why would you need to suspend prorogation? The HoL would have until next week Thursday to pass the 1 line bill.Pulpstar said:Here's a scenario -
Johnson and Sturgeon agree a 1 line bill for there to be an election on the 15th providing the Benn bill receives RA.
Gov't because it feels the prorogation could be judicially reviewed advises the Queen to suspend the prorogation of parliament (Nothing to do with the 1 line bill needing time for an election getting through the HoL honest Guv'nor)
House of Lords (With its Labour/Lib Dem majority I believe) passes the Benn bill but then blocks the election bill0 -
"Doesn't need 2/3 for a non-FTPA clause"eek said:
Only 1 person can ask for a VoNC and it isn't Boris.nunuone said:
Not needed. A simple majority is all that is needed for VoNC.anothernick said:
Doesn't matter, Nicola + newly shrunken Tory party does not get anywhere near 2/3.GIN1138 said:
Nicola's not playing..Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Tories plus DUP plus SNP gets them very close.
ScottP0 -
Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.TOPPING said:
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.
If the Commons rejects an election he will keep banging that drum loudly and unequivocally. Cowardice from the opposition won't lead to the government losing support.0 -
Boris Johnson heckles John McDonnell in Parliament today.
McDonnell retorts with: “I believe the last time he was shouting, somebody had to call the police!” 😂😂😂
The shadow chancellor is on 🔥🔥🔥0 -
Ah good point, the prorogation is between the 9th and 12th so they will have time. But they might not be in any hurryPhilip_Thompson said:
Why would you need to suspend prorogation? The HoL would have until next week Thursday to pass the 1 line bill.Pulpstar said:Here's a scenario -
Johnson and Sturgeon agree a 1 line bill for there to be an election on the 15th providing the Benn bill receives RA.
Gov't because it feels the prorogation could be judicially reviewed advises the Queen to suspend the prorogation of parliament (Nothing to do with the 1 line bill needing time for an election getting through the HoL honest Guv'nor)
House of Lords (With its Labour/Lib Dem majority I believe) passes the Benn bill but then blocks the election bill ! 0 -
If there isn't Brexit or an election by 31/10, Johnson is toastPhilip_Thompson said:
He's only going to look untrustworthy if he has co-operated.Richard_Nabavi said:
The trap is that, just like Theresa May with March 29th but in even stronger terms, he's promised absolutely that we will leave on October 31st. Saying 'oh, but the big boys tied me to the bike shed so I couldn't do it' is not going to go well, Farage will stomp all over it. After all, if Boris didn't have the numbers in parliament, he shouldn't have promised it 'do or die', should he? He'll be shown up as a blustering untrustworthy fool - and amongst the voters he most needs to keep given that he's deliberately thrown away the support of the rest of us.Philip_Thompson said:Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
By expelling Grieve and co he has shot that fox. By demanding an election he is shooting it again. Farage is irrelevant and Ken Clarke and Grieve etc are no longer Tories. The leave-backing public won't blame Boris, Grieve and co will get the blame.
He can rally support between now and the next election whenever it is and say that all this shows why he needs a majority.
Its funny how all those who think Boris is going to be damned post-Halloween if the opposition forces this while he's expelling rebels and demanding a vote are those who opposed Brexit and opposed his policy anyway. I don't see anyone who supported Boris yesterday saying they'll oppose him post-Halloween if the opposition does this.0 -
Odd. Reminds me of the time the Labour Party issued a statement saying Michael Foot was its leader - during an election campaign.Scott_P said:0 -
I admire your persistence.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.TOPPING said:
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.
If the Commons rejects an election he will keep banging that drum loudly and unequivocally. Cowardice from the opposition won't lead to the government losing support.
If we are still in the EU on November 1st then he will lose support and the airwaves will be ringing with betrayal screams from TBP. That's my assessment. You think otherwise and that's great. We shall of course have to wait to see who is right.0 -
It won't get far.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.TOPPING said:
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.
If the Commons rejects an election he will keep banging that drum loudly and unequivocally. Cowardice from the opposition won't lead to the government losing support.
Boris (tonight) - I want an election
Corbyn - sorry we need the Don't fall out of the EU act passed
Next week
Corbyn - so the Don't fall out of the EU act has passed do you want an election
Boris - Yes
Corbyn - did you prorogue Parliament
Boris - Yes
Corbyn - happy to call an election as soon as you reopen Parliament0 -
Just had a very unpleasant experience. Was innocently listening to the calming tones of Sarah Montague at lunchtime, when I heard a repulsive blast from the past. That ginormous turd Michael Forsyth, who the voters of Stirling soundly dismissed in 1997, was on my bloody radio, splurging his usual lies, hatred and bile.
This is why the House of Lords has to go. Reptiles like Forsyth suck at the taxpayers’ tweets for decades after losing elections. The vile serpent had the audacity to present himself as a champion of democracy.0 -
The one flaw in Nicola's cunning plan, not that it matters, is it would be the SNP rescuing the Tories from an impossible position at Westminster, for a second time.
They still get stick for the VoNC and Thatcher.
But it doesn't matter if they rescue BoZo and he precipitates separation...0 -
-
I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.0
-
They are ceratinly picking up support. I could see Belfast East and South being good opportunities. North Down is also their kind of place but that would depend on Lady Hermon standing down. Out in the boondocks maybe Derry or Down South could give SF a fright.rcs1000 said:
Do you think the Alliance will achieve their current polling if there's an election next month?Alanbrooke said:
Sinn Feinrcs1000 said:
To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.Byronic said:
That’s surprisingly sensible from Labour. Wait and delay. Make Boris go to Brussels and ask for the extension he never wanted. Terrible Optics for BJAlastairMeeks said:
But there is one alternative outcome. What if Boris refuses to ask?
Then, as per the surrender bill, Brussels will impose an extension, to be rubber-stamped by parliament. What if it is 3 years? Or 5? 10? Where are we then?! And what if it has conditions?
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
650 empty seats sounds bliss
The key to Allaince getting a breakthrough is if they can get the non voters off their backsides. Demographically this should be in their favour but people have tuned out for so long it will rely on someform of GOTV to have any impact.0 -
We all breathe a sigh of relief and get on with our lives.Byronic said:
That’s surprisingly sensible from Labour. Wait and delay. Make Boris go to Brussels and ask for the extension he never wanted. Terrible Optics for BJAlastairMeeks said:
But there is one alternative outcome. What if Boris refuses to ask?
Then, as per the surrender bill, Brussels will impose an extension, to be rubber-stamped by parliament. What if it is 3 years? Or 5? 10? Where are we then?! And what if it has conditions?0 -
I thought we covered the relative collective characteristics of the supporters of each side the other day? Entertaining as it was I'm not sure I want a rerun.edmundintokyo said:
It's not just a numbers problem though. I can't think of a way to say this without sounding snarky but the problem is that although we have some very *smart* Tories of a variety of viewpoints who are often persuasive enough to change your mind, hardly any of them are on the Boris train.Gallowgate said:
This is nonsense. Half of the regular posters on here are Boris supporters for god sake. You just spend more time blathering to the wall about echo chambres and how ‘out of touch’ everyone is.
I come here specifically to hear points from other perspectives, from a variety of walks of life and geographical locations.0 -
I think people are anchoring too much on the current composition of the Commons. The possibilities of a healthy Tory majority or a healthy Lib-Lab majority are pretty sizable.rcs1000 said:
I think there are a lot of moving parts here.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Tories lose the same number of seats to the LibDems and SNP as they gain from Labour then that's a pro-Leave majority with the DUP. The Tories who have defected/expelled would be replaced with pro-Leave MPs.rcs1000 said:To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
The Alliance is now only six percentage points behind first place in Northern Ireland. They look set to pick up one seat from the DUP. But I think it is also quite likely they pick up a couple of Sinn Fein seats. If they do, that's a few more "No" vote too. And don't forget that the Labour Party loses Kate Hoey and John Mann. And the new MP for Sheffield Hallam is likely to actually turn up.
Plus there will be Conservative MPs elected, such as Theresa May, who might not have rebelled on the vote this time, but who clearly oppose No Deal.
So, yes, the Conservative Party improves it's position if it swaps Rebels for No Dealers. But it's not the only dynamic at work.
To get clarity, we need either the forces of No Deal to get 330 seats plus, or those of Referendum for Remain to get the same. A situation where both groupings are on around 320 seats is not a recipe for good government.0 -
Why would Parliament prorogue before dissolution? It doesn't need to be prorogued until Thursday next week and the election must be called by then to be done in time anyway.eek said:
It won't get far.Philip_Thompson said:Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.
If the Commons rejects an election he will keep banging that drum loudly and unequivocally. Cowardice from the opposition won't lead to the government losing support.
Boris (tonight) - I want an election
Corbyn - sorry we need the Don't fall out of the EU act passed
Next week
Corbyn - so the Don't fall out of the EU act has passed do you want an election
Boris - Yes
Corbyn - did you prorogue Parliament
Boris - Yes
Corbyn - happy to call an election as soon as you reopen Parliament0 -
No reason why the English judgement would be any different to the Scottish one.eek said:
Not in a Scottish court - tomorrow in an English court....Drutt said:
The 'well' in this case would be a vote of no confidence in HMG. It was confirmed today that the matter is not justice able.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Boris will have been screaming about betrayal for months before then. Betrayal by Parliament, betrayal by an opposition too cowardly to face the voters.TOPPING said:
I admire your persistence.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.TOPPING said:
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.
If the Commons rejects an election he will keep banging that drum loudly and unequivocally. Cowardice from the opposition won't lead to the government losing support.
If we are still in the EU on November 1st then he will lose support and the airwaves will be ringing with betrayal screams from TBP. That's my assessment. You think otherwise and that's great. We shall of course have to wait to see who is right.
TBP screams will be drowned out.0 -
Sorry, didn't see that but you're probably right.OblitusSumMe said:I thought we covered the relative collective characteristics of the supporters of each side the other day? Entertaining as it was I'm not sure I want a rerun.
0 -
It'll be like VAR, refs covering for each other and refusing to disagree.AndyJS said:
No reason why the English judgement would be any different to the Scottish one.eek said:
Not in a Scottish court - tomorrow in an English court....Drutt said:
The 'well' in this case would be a vote of no confidence in HMG. It was confirmed today that the matter is not justice able.CarlottaVance said:0 -
It was SeanT’s line last night. Mind you, from his rants, there may have been other lines (or wines) involved.Peter_the_Punter said:
That has to be the most ridiculous and far-fetched excuse ever attempted on this Site!Theuniondivvie said:
Also makes the 'he's a tall bloke trying to listen to the speaker' brigade look like diddies.StuartDickson said:
Negates 100% of the sympathy he was getting on here last night (much of it from opponents).Scott_P said:Stark_Dawning said:It looks worse the more I see of it. Last night I foolishly accepted the spin from some on here who said he was merely pressing his ear against an audio speaker, which is palpable nonsense. The man clearly intended to demonstrate beyond all doubt that a chap of his breeding can do what the hell he likes and the riff-raff would do well to take note.
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1169177120515481600Slackbladder said:I think the final which was the final straw for me last night was JRM. His high and snobby attitude and speech might be endearing in another place, but here, where actual jobs and economies matter it was misplaced and out of order.
I'm actually wondering if a period of Corbyn government, as disasterous as it would be in some areas wouldn't now be whats at least required, if certainly not desired.0 -
0
-
He just can't do that. HM would be within her rights to ignore his advice and sign anyway.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
So only people who are comfortable with racism vote for Boris?Alanbrooke said:
The people whose minds that might influence already have no intention of voting Boris. The only way I can see that working is if the return of PC name calling bollox gives more ammo to Farage. And then its anyones guess who benefits.eek said:
The opposition don't need a plan - they just need the phrase "Boris is racist" in the back of some people's minds.Alanbrooke said:
If were back to shouting racist the Opposition havent got a plan.Scott_P said:0 -
'Do or die', Philip. Those were the words the public heard. You think it will care whose fault it was the deadline was passed?Philip_Thompson said:
Tory support would only go off the cliff if the Tories choose to extend, as May chose to do so.CarlottaVance said:
If the extension is forced by the opposition with the Tories rallying [and expelling] anyone in favour of it then the Tories will be the lightning rod attracting everyone opposed to extension.0 -
How would you know, you've only been with us a few short months right?Byronic said:PB used to be a great way of assessing public opinion, as it offered a uniquely wide spectrum of well informed viewpoints. Sadly, this is yet another victim of Brexit.
It is impossible to get a grasp of how Boris is REALLY doing, because 95% of you are crazed by your hatred of him, and the other 5% therefore feel obliged to put up a desperate defence of him, whatever he does.
Shame. I shall have to rely on polls.0 -
This seems solid and sensible from a Lab perspective to me but...Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
It is predicated on a BXP backlash against Con at missing the October 31 exit date. I don't think that is nailed in.0 -
Wrong. BoZo the Clown needs an election.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.TOPPING said:
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.
He’s not going to be granted that lifeline.0 -
If they did that I think parliament could almost definitely get a GoNAfaE together. It was iffy when they you had to find a Tory from somewhere to cancel out each Lab leave rebel but now all those Tories are ex-Tories is would be easy, albeit there would be a lengthy bunfight about whether it was Corbyn or not.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
According the Guardian thousands of people are currently registering to vote, most of them young.1
-
-
Blackford is gagging to hand it to him.StuartDickson said:Wrong. BoZo the Clown needs an election.
He’s not going to be granted that lifeline.
The SNP are going to rescue the Tories, again.0 -
That is my instinct. If parliament forces Boris to extend, Boris refuses to go along, it goes to the courts, legal compulsion comes back, Boris repeatedly demands an election, parliament keeps on refusing it, he eventually extends in the most reluctant way possible, then demands an election to overturn it.... I can't see the Brexity voters flocking to Farage. Boris will clearly have been on their side for weeks and will be the most prominent Brexiter. The route to Brexit will be giving him a majority and Farage will be accused of vote splitting.Philip_Thompson said:
Tory support would only go off the cliff if the Tories choose to extend, as May chose to do so.CarlottaVance said:
If the extension is forced by the opposition with the Tories rallying [and expelling] anyone in favour of it then the Tories will be the lightning rod attracting everyone opposed to extension.0 -
😆Anabobazina said:
How would you know, you've only been with us a few short months right?Byronic said:PB used to be a great way of assessing public opinion, as it offered a uniquely wide spectrum of well informed viewpoints. Sadly, this is yet another victim of Brexit.
It is impossible to get a grasp of how Boris is REALLY doing, because 95% of you are crazed by your hatred of him, and the other 5% therefore feel obliged to put up a desperate defence of him, whatever he does.
Shame. I shall have to rely on polls.0 -
Yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
'Do or die', Philip. Those were the words the public heard. You think it will care whose fault it was the deadline was passed?Philip_Thompson said:
Tory support would only go off the cliff if the Tories choose to extend, as May chose to do so.CarlottaVance said:
If the extension is forced by the opposition with the Tories rallying [and expelling] anyone in favour of it then the Tories will be the lightning rod attracting everyone opposed to extension.
Months of him demanding the public be allowed to show he is right and Parliament is wrong will trump a catchphrase from months earlier.
Parliament v the people is one thing. Parliament v the people and Parliament is too cowardly to let the public vote... wow!
0 -
I've been meaning to ask, what does that acronym mean?edmundintokyo said:
If they did that I think parliament could almost definitely get a GoNAfaE together. It was iffy when they you had to find a Tory from somewhere to cancel out each Lab leave rebel but now all those Tories are ex-Tories is would be easy, albeit there would be a lengthy bunfight about whether it was Corbyn or not.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
Rishi Sunak very impressive on Sky. Next CotE potential.0
-
Johnson can't be accused of being anti-democratic when he's the one requesting an election.StuartDickson said:
Wrong. BoZo the Clown needs an election.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.TOPPING said:
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.
He’s not going to be granted that lifeline.0 -
I think if Johnson refused to submit the bill for royal assent there's a good chance he would be VONC'd and replaced by Corbyn. Or there would be a one-clause bill transferring the responsibility for submitting legislation to HM to, say, the Speaker or a Parliamentary official.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
He will eventually.StuartDickson said:
Wrong. BoZo the Clown needs an election.Philip_Thompson said:
Indeed and his majority has died and now we need an election.TOPPING said:
But..but..dog..homework..Philip_Thompson said:
Not if we are in due to the majority in Parliament going against him and being too frit to have an election. He'll be polling over 40% come November if that happens.TOPPING said:
If we are still in the EU at 00:00:00:001 on November 1st then Boris will have spaffed it.Philip_Thompson said:
He's not fallen in, the Opposition are teetering on the edge panicking about how to avoid falling in to HIS trap.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's more than a very good case, it's an unanswerable case. That's why Boris should have made that his policy right from the start. Instead he chose to dig himself the most enormous elephant trap and jump right into it.FF43 said:
A very good case can be made for stabilising Brexit and not being on the point of crashing out while am election is going on. That it's also in Labour's narrow interest is the political art of mating the public interest to your own.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's absolutely the right thing for Labour to do, not least in their own electoral interests. They might screw it up, of course, but if they don't it's a neat way both of stuffing Boris and of escaping from their own shambles of a Brexit position.AlastairMeeks said:
Its a win/win for Boris. If Parliament compels an extension against him then that shows he needs an election and needs a majority. It won't be optional like it was in 2017.
If Parliament doesn't compel an extension then he's won.
Either way, what's the trap? You seem to think for some reason that voters who want this over with are going to look at Parliamentarians conniving to obstruct Brexit and blame the one person opposing that.
Do or Die. Pretty unambiguous. As the whole planet will point out to him.
He’s not going to be granted that lifeline.0 -
Indeed but it really doesn't matter about that.Pulpstar said:Sturgeon rightly pointing out that Labour doesn't fancy a poll right now because its ratings are in the shit.
Labour's strategy is bang on point.
Do what your opponent least wants you to do.0 -
Test halted by bad weather in Manchester in September.
Why couldnt we have played in the Bahamas or Florida where they have nice weather!!0 -
Government of National Asking for an ExtensionRobD said:
I've been meaning to ask, what does that acronym mean?edmundintokyo said:
If they did that I think parliament could almost definitely get a GoNAfaE together. It was iffy when they you had to find a Tory from somewhere to cancel out each Lab leave rebel but now all those Tories are ex-Tories is would be easy, albeit there would be a lengthy bunfight about whether it was Corbyn or not.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
dont be sillyAnabobazina said:
So only people who are comfortable with racism vote for Boris?Alanbrooke said:
The people whose minds that might influence already have no intention of voting Boris. The only way I can see that working is if the return of PC name calling bollox gives more ammo to Farage. And then its anyones guess who benefits.eek said:
The opposition don't need a plan - they just need the phrase "Boris is racist" in the back of some people's minds.Alanbrooke said:
If were back to shouting racist the Opposition havent got a plan.Scott_P said:
all those people who hate jews will be voting for Jezza
( you really do make it too easy )0 -
Said it this morning, a September Old Trafford Ashes Test is moronic.bigjohnowls said:Test halted by bad weather in Manchester in September.
Why couldnt we have played in the Bahamas or Florida where they have nice weather!!
No Old Trafford Ashes Test has got a positive result all century. This is just sad.0 -
But parliament will be prorogued from the beginning of next week until mid October, so how does parliament do any of that in time?anothernick said:
I think if Johnson refused to submit the bill for royal assent there's a good chance he would be VONC'd and replaced by Corbyn. Or there would be a one-clause bill transferring the responsibility for submitting legislation to HM to, say, the Speaker or a Parliamentary official.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
Of course. And as I said criticism and debate are fine. Personal abuse is not.isam said:
If people want to stick their head above the parapet they should be able to handle mild criticism. I found the other threads you mention equally self indulgent. Am I allowed a view?Cyclefree said:
What's more we have had thread headers from SO about his joining and leaving Labour under Corbyn, which have been interesting.malcolmg said:
Maybe not everybody's cup of tea but very entitled to and relevant to site and current state of politics etc. People here are interested that folks who have been members most of their life are throwing in the towel and leaving the Tories.isam said:
Who said he couldn’t respond politely? Publishing the letter/making it the subject of a thread header seems to me to be like playing at being an MP or resigning minister, who do such things on Twittereek said:
Given that people on here have had a go at his position its perfectly fair for him to respond politely - and given that this is a betting sites it's useful albeit anecdotal information.isam said:
Worthwhile to mention leaving, yes. Publishing letters/ writing threads about it seems like attention seeking to meeek said:
Given the comments some posters on here (including me) have made about Big_G remaining a member of the tories while other previously more favourable of Boris had left - it was a worthwhile thing to post.isam said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Stereotomy said:
Big_G to resign his conservative membership today?Slackbladder said:Oh Boy.... Boris just used the S-word.
Both Big_G leaving (which must have been a seriously hard decision) and his reasons for doing so are valid posts and discussion topics on this site.
Insight from those like him, @NickPalmer @david_herdson who are practitioners and not just commentators is valuable, interesting and one of the best things about this site. Attacking people personally adds nothing.
There has been some somewhat unpleasant criticism of those who write headers. Criticism is absolutely fine but if people don't like what is published they should offer their own articles rather than simply carp. @Philip_Thompson and @MarqueeMark, who are both very much Leavers, did so and produced two very fine headers.
TBH quite often people scarcely read the headers let alone debate the issues raised, which seems a pity. And others seem to respond to things they think the writer has said not what they actually wrote.
Anyway good to see you back.0 -
John Mc is next CoEralphmalph said:Rishi Sunak very impressive on Sky. Next CotE potential.
0 -
On the "do or die" line, the Alanis Morissette line is going to be ringing in quite a few people's ears:
"And every time you speak her name
Does she know how you told me
You'd hold me until you died
'Til you died, but you're still alive"0 -
Green Party surge?OldKingCole said:According the Guardian thousands of people are currently registering to vote, most of them young.
0 -
New Italian government announced
Prime Minister: Giuseppe Conte (M5S)
Foreign Affairs: Luigi Di Maio (M5S)
Home Affairs: Luciana Lamorgese
Justice Alfonso Bonafede (M5S)
Defense: Lorenzo Guerini (PD)
Economy and finances: Roberto Gualtieri (PD)
Ministro dello sviluppo economico: Stefano Patuanelli (M5S)
Transportsi: Paola De Micheli (PD)
Agricolture: Teresa Bellanova (PD)
Environment : Sergio Costa (M5S)
Work and Social Policies: Nunzia Catalfo (M5S)
Education: Lorenzo Fioramonti (M5S)
Culture and Tourism: Dario Franceschini (PD)
Health: Roberto Speranza (Article One aka Bersani's splinters)
Regional Affairs: Francesco Boccia (PD)
South: Giuseppe Provenzano (PD)
Equal Opportunities and Family: Elena Bonetti (PD)
Relationship with Parliament: Federico d'Incà (M5S)
Technological Innovation and Digitalization: Paola Pisano (M5S)
Public Administration: Fabiana Dadone (M5S)
European Affairs: Enzo Amendola (PD)
Secretary to the Cabinet Presidency: Riccardo Fraccaro (M5S)
Cabinet will be sworn in tomorrow at 10 am.
1 -
The VONC would have to be done before prorogation, but of course the fact that parliament wasn't sitting wouldn't prevent the Queen from asking someone else to form a government, as that relates to the executive, not the legislature.anothernick said:
I think if Johnson refused to submit the bill for royal assent there's a good chance he would be VONC'd and replaced by Corbyn. Or there would be a one-clause bill transferring the responsibility for submitting legislation to HM to, say, the Speaker or a Parliamentary official.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
will they atcually bother to turn up ?ralphmalph said:
Green Party surge?OldKingCole said:According the Guardian thousands of people are currently registering to vote, most of them young.
or will they still be expecting their mums and dads to do the voting for them ?0 -
Brexit isn't really about Brexit IMO, it's part of the wider crisis in western liberalism, as John Gray writes in these articles.
https://unherd.com/2018/12/the-rise-of-the-post-truth-liberals-2/
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
https://unherd.com/2019/02/youre-reaping-what-you-sowed-liberals/
https://unherd.com/2019/04/liberalism-the-other-god-that-failed/0 -
Do it in mid-October. A VONC takes priority over everything else (except the Queen's Speech, I guess) and substituting a caretaker should be doable as fast as the politicians can haggle, which they also had the recess to do.OnlyLivingBoy said:
But parliament will be prorogued from the beginning of next week until mid October, so how does parliament do any of that in time?anothernick said:
I think if Johnson refused to submit the bill for royal assent there's a good chance he would be VONC'd and replaced by Corbyn. Or there would be a one-clause bill transferring the responsibility for submitting legislation to HM to, say, the Speaker or a Parliamentary official.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
That's a keeper, Philip....for us both!Philip_Thompson said:
Yes.Peter_the_Punter said:
'Do or die', Philip. Those were the words the public heard. You think it will care whose fault it was the deadline was passed?Philip_Thompson said:
Tory support would only go off the cliff if the Tories choose to extend, as May chose to do so.CarlottaVance said:
If the extension is forced by the opposition with the Tories rallying [and expelling] anyone in favour of it then the Tories will be the lightning rod attracting everyone opposed to extension.
Months of him demanding the public be allowed to show he is right and Parliament is wrong will trump a catchphrase from months earlier.
Parliament v the people is one thing. Parliament v the people and Parliament is too cowardly to let the public vote... wow!
Will certainly be happy to tip the hat if you prove right.0 -
That doesn’t make sense when its the generation who have done the best from globalization who are voting for Brexit!AndyJS said:Brexit isn't really about Brexit IMO, it's part of the wider crisis in western liberalism, as John Gray writes in these articles.
https://unherd.com/2018/12/the-rise-of-the-post-truth-liberals-2/
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
https://unherd.com/2019/02/youre-reaping-what-you-sowed-liberals/
https://unherd.com/2019/04/liberalism-the-other-god-that-failed/0 -
*Bercow klaxon*
Queen's Consent not required for extension bill.0 -
Good day to bury bad news, à la Tony.
What’s going on under the radar?0 -
Johnson is like a Poundshop Jim Davidson in the current era of comedy.
A few old people will still find him funny.
Everyone else thinks WTF or looks on with pity0 -
The FTPA requires a vote of confidence in rhe new government in fourteen days (not even sitting days) otherwise parliament gets dissolved.Chris said:
The VONC would have to be done before prorogation, but of course the fact that parliament wasn't sitting wouldn't prevent the Queen from asking someone else to form a government, as that relates to the executive, not the legislature.anothernick said:
I think if Johnson refused to submit the bill for royal assent there's a good chance he would be VONC'd and replaced by Corbyn. Or there would be a one-clause bill transferring the responsibility for submitting legislation to HM to, say, the Speaker or a Parliamentary official.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
0 -
But HYUFD assured us the right was on an unstoppable march across Italy and Europe.AndreaParma_82 said:New Italian government announced
Prime Minister: Giuseppe Conte (M5S)
Foreign Affairs: Luigi Di Maio (M5S)
Home Affairs: Luciana Lamorgese
Justice Alfonso Bonafede (M5S)
Defense: Lorenzo Guerini (PD)
Economy and finances: Roberto Gualtieri (PD)
Ministro dello sviluppo economico: Stefano Patuanelli (M5S)
Transportsi: Paola De Micheli (PD)
Agricolture: Teresa Bellanova (PD)
Environment : Sergio Costa (M5S)
Work and Social Policies: Nunzia Catalfo (M5S)
Education: Lorenzo Fioramonti (M5S)
Culture and Tourism: Dario Franceschini (PD)
Health: Roberto Speranza (Article One aka Bersani's splinters)
Regional Affairs: Francesco Boccia (PD)
South: Giuseppe Provenzano (PD)
Equal Opportunities and Family: Elena Bonetti (PD)
Relationship with Parliament: Federico d'Incà (M5S)
Technological Innovation and Digitalization: Paola Pisano (M5S)
Public Administration: Fabiana Dadone (M5S)
European Affairs: Enzo Amendola (PD)
Secretary to the Cabinet Presidency: Riccardo Fraccaro (M5S)
Cabinet will be sworn in tomorrow at 10 am.
Oh.0 -
Parliament really doesn't need much time at all if it is minded to do things quickly. It's always the wanting to do things rather than any sort of time constraint that is the issue.edmundintokyo said:
Do it in mid-October. A VONC takes priority over everything else (except the Queen's Speech, I guess) and substituting a caretaker should be doable as fast as the politicians can haggle, which they also had the recess to do.OnlyLivingBoy said:
But parliament will be prorogued from the beginning of next week until mid October, so how does parliament do any of that in time?anothernick said:
I think if Johnson refused to submit the bill for royal assent there's a good chance he would be VONC'd and replaced by Corbyn. Or there would be a one-clause bill transferring the responsibility for submitting legislation to HM to, say, the Speaker or a Parliamentary official.OnlyLivingBoy said:I am starting to think there is a good chance that the government advises HMQ to withhold assent for the current bill on Friday. My thinking is that the government absolutely must leave on October 31 if it is to win the next election. If Royal assent is refused on Friday and then parliament is suspended early next week, then the government might be able to sit this out until 31 October. I operate on the basis that the government will do anything now to leave the EU, and it hasn't explicitly ruled this path out. Needless to say this pitches us into the mother of all constitutional crises, but I think that Johnson and Cummings are all in now and so that won't bother them.
1 -
Is it the constituency party that would select the new candidate? I can well imagine that most/all of those would select no-dealers, but it's not necessarily a given, particularly if some were from remain constituencies and the local party is also of that persuasion or at least want a deal. Might depend how many members who were against no deal have torn up their membership.Philip_Thompson said:
If the Tories lose the same number of seats to the LibDems and SNP as they gain from Labour then that's a pro-Leave majority with the DUP. The Tories who have defected/expelled would be replaced with pro-Leave MPs.rcs1000 said:
To be honest, so long as the government is of a Brexit persuasion, then the length of the extension is irrelevant.Byronic said:
That’s surprisingly sensible from Labour. Wait and delay. Make Boris go to Brussels and ask for the extension he never wanted. Terrible Optics for BJAlastairMeeks said:
But there is one alternative outcome. What if Boris refuses to ask?
Then, as per the surrender bill, Brussels will impose an extension, to be rubber-stamped by parliament. What if it is 3 years? Or 5? 10? Where are we then?! And what if it has conditions?
Why?
Because there are two obvious outs:
1. The extension is for five years. The Brexit government revokes Brexit... and then resubmits. It's now only two years to exit.
2. The government tells the EU that it will simply repeal the European Communities Act, which takes the UK out of the EU (effectively) immediately.
The issue, really, is if there is a "notionally, but in reality not particularly Brexity" government. In which case it is used as an excuse to kick it into the long grass.
But if I look at the options available to the British people in 2019, they seem to be "No Deal Now!" or "Bollocks to Brexit".
So at least this year we should see clarity one way or the other. Either the Conservatives get a majority and take us out without a deal (probably a 60% chance), or a Referendum for Remain coalition get in (say 25%), in which case there'll likely be referendum between EFTA/EEA and Revoke.
There is, of course, a 15% chance that there is no workable government after the election, with the Tories losing the same number of seats to the LibDems and the SNP that they gain from Labour. In which case, we're all fucked.
So - as someone who wants to leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion, who do I vote for?
There's also a distinction between pro-leave and pro-no-deal. Some of those who were expelled have voted for Brexit (i.e. May's deal) more than those in the current cabinet.0 -
L
John Gray is just a typical anti-European who covers his arguments with an intellectual veneer.Gallowgate said:
That doesn’t make sense when its the generation who have done the best from globalization who are voting for Brexit!AndyJS said:Brexit isn't really about Brexit IMO, it's part of the wider crisis in western liberalism, as John Gray writes in these articles.
https://unherd.com/2018/12/the-rise-of-the-post-truth-liberals-2/
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
https://unherd.com/2019/02/youre-reaping-what-you-sowed-liberals/
https://unherd.com/2019/04/liberalism-the-other-god-that-failed/0 -
were simply protecting our childrens interestsGallowgate said:
That doesn’t make sense when its the generation who have done the best from globalization who are voting for Brexit!AndyJS said:Brexit isn't really about Brexit IMO, it's part of the wider crisis in western liberalism, as John Gray writes in these articles.
https://unherd.com/2018/12/the-rise-of-the-post-truth-liberals-2/
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
https://unherd.com/2019/02/youre-reaping-what-you-sowed-liberals/
https://unherd.com/2019/04/liberalism-the-other-god-that-failed/0 -
By shafting the economy, their FOM, and future livelihoods?Alanbrooke said:
were simply protecting our childrens interestsGallowgate said:
That doesn’t make sense when its the generation who have done the best from globalization who are voting for Brexit!AndyJS said:Brexit isn't really about Brexit IMO, it's part of the wider crisis in western liberalism, as John Gray writes in these articles.
https://unherd.com/2018/12/the-rise-of-the-post-truth-liberals-2/
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
https://unherd.com/2019/02/youre-reaping-what-you-sowed-liberals/
https://unherd.com/2019/04/liberalism-the-other-god-that-failed/0 -
If it looks like the SNP is moving to supporting an election Labour will have to reverse ferret quickly IMO. 0
-
By voting down the system which makes impoverishment possible. Are you for the burden of Uni fees ? Are you for lack of affordable housing ? Are you for the gig economy ?Tabman said:
By shafting the economy, their FOM, and future livelihoods?Alanbrooke said:
were simply protecting our childrens interestsGallowgate said:
That doesn’t make sense when its the generation who have done the best from globalization who are voting for Brexit!AndyJS said:Brexit isn't really about Brexit IMO, it's part of the wider crisis in western liberalism, as John Gray writes in these articles.
https://unherd.com/2018/12/the-rise-of-the-post-truth-liberals-2/
https://unherd.com/2018/11/how-duchamps-urinal-embodies-the-liberal-west/
https://unherd.com/2019/02/youre-reaping-what-you-sowed-liberals/
https://unherd.com/2019/04/liberalism-the-other-god-that-failed/0
