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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Cummings & Johnson strategy could well be dubbed as the charge of the light in the head brigade
Tonight's @YouGov poll on Scotland for @thetimesscot. Tories down to 3 seats in Scotland as the SNP surge to 51 seats in Westminster election. https://t.co/Ya700pzFuL pic.twitter.com/wkrCSsYDwI
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Bravo ECB.
Yes, I know saying it is raining in Greater Manchester is like saying water is wet.
Revolutions usually end by devouring themselves.
survived it too
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1169146432252784641
Big_G_NorthWales said:
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As you know Malc, the time comes when a single party dominating the government over years (SNP) and here in Wales (labour) sees the shine eventually coming off and disenchantment sets in.
I expect labour to continue to decline in Wales as they have been in power so long, and with our NHS and Education on it's knees the resentment is tangible
Labour have done the same to Wales as they did in Scotland previously. Scotland under SNP on the other hand is looking better and hard to see any change of government in the long term, 12 years and more popular than ever is a good record.
What activists?
Little prospect of another referendum going to the Union IMO. 25% is nowhere near what you need. The LDs and Labour aren't going to support the Conservatives in this.
I'd have thought if the Tories still poll at more than 20% they will cling on to 5 or 6 seats.
I’ve been trying to reconcile my beliefs that 1 Boris will benefit from a surge in patriotic support, but that 2, Brexit will now, probably, be stopped
I see it this way. Unless Boris finds a way to dodge the rebel vote, or push us over the No Deal cliff anyway (possible but unlikely) we are headed for a GE with Brexit unresolved.
In that election I expect Boris to increase his vote share, even from his present elevated polling, squeezing the BXP in particular. The patriot thing. However I also expect the SNP and LDs to take seats off him and Labour seats will prove hard to crack. Tactical voting and other factors will see the return of the inefficient Tory vote.
Result? Another hung parliament, yet this time it will produce a minority Corbyn government, offering another referendum. God help us.
It seems quite likely, given that those cases might well be appealed to the Supreme Court, that the government might need to give court undertakings not to prorogue before 12 September, the end of the window, so that the court process can be exhausted. If so, that gives everyone a couple more days to play with.
People who were reluctant just months ago are coming back - and people who have never helped have signed up too.
For the past year an obstacle in the way of sorting this out has been that the crazies in the Tory party didn't want an election because it might jeopardise Brexit. Now they are reconciled to an election, the people can decide.
I might still vote for Damian Hinds (my MP) though.
spin
https://youtu.be/l22kHO5jdRU
I agree with the professor. But it appears that there are galaxy brains out there who know better.
It would produce some nice betting opportunities though.
https://order-order.com/2019/09/04/revealed-lords-plan-block-remainer-legislation/
Big if though
Byronic you're a bit more sensible, less manic, when you're sober. Presumably we have an hour or two's grace?
I'd like to find myself agreeing with this post but I still think you're only half right. First, I'm sceptical that Johnson will benefit from a 'patriotic surge.' He already looks like a loser. He's out of control. He has an idiot advising him. He's alienated a significant part of his party. He looks far from a sure touch. And in a 5 or 6 week campaign he is going to look like the fool he is. Most of us on here have seen through the magician's sleight of hand. It's only a matter of time until the public do. Though calling Johnson a magician is an insult to them.
Second, a disunited party never wins elections. And, oh boy, is this tory party riven. During an election campaign? All hell will break loose. You just wait and see. It will be civil war in front of the British people.
So, given those things, you seriously believe that Johnson will poll more Thant 42.4%?
42.4%!!! That's what Mrs May got in 2017 and you seriously think he will increase that voteshare?!
Edit. Just seen you are referencing it to his current polling. Which brings us back to the thread header by TSE. If he's falling off Mrs May's polling level, where is he going to gain these seats? The Labour heartland ...? If that's Cummings' strategy he's a moron.
If I read it correctly the proposal today will be a 10 Minute Rule Bill.
So was there something in the gumf yesterday to prevent a single call of "Object" killing it? An amendment to Standing Orders?
I think they are pretty clear on this (which makes a change) - if today's bill makes it into law, they will vote for an election immediately.
The idea that all Tory activists are delighted about an election is a bit strange given those facts. Some will be, others will be in despair.
https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/ex-yorkshire-tory-association-chairman-says-he-is-politically-homeless-as-he-quits-party-after-24-years-1-9922447
Over 50 countries have abandoned London rule. None of them has ever applied to rejoin.
I said, albeit a bit incoherently, that Boris will improve his vote EVEN FROM HIS PRESENT POLLING
What I meant by that, was this: he could get 36% or even 37%. Well above what the present polls suggest, which is ~33%. But it won’t be enough.
I agree he will not get anywhere near 42%
I think he would prefer that the election is held after October 31st, while we are still in the EU, so that Boris can be shown not to have been able to deliver on his promises - all subsequent promises made in the election campaign can then be compared to his track record of promising things he is unable to deliver. "You can't trust a word Boris says..." they will say.