politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result
Comments
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I've been to a count with a smartphone - you just don't do it; ethics innitChris said:
You're pulling my leg, aren't you?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Willie Rennie winning Dunfermline?Tissue_Price said:
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Going from memory it wasn't far from that. OGH or others could give details.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.
Not saying it's happened but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
This one?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Dunfermline_and_West_Fife_by-election0 -
That was the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election in 2006. (Seems like yesterday). Labour was still expected to win by the betting markets until the official announcement was made. The LDs won it by 1,800.Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results? IIRC SNP won what was meant to be a SLAB hold but I may be wrong.Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Not saying that has happened tonight but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Dunfermline_and_West_Fife_by-election2 -
That's what I thought but I can't find any evidence of the prices: it's a terrible shame that early PB comments are all gone (for ever, @rcs1000?)dyedwoolie said:
It's the one before Lindsay Roy won. It was an SNP gain against predictions, can't remember which seat....... yes I can, Glasgow eastTissue_Price said:
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
I think you are remembering Dunfermline West which Willie Rennie won gaining from Labour. The LDs were something like 8/1 when the returning officer was on stage...Tissue_Price said:
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Of course no one's suggesting that people in the hall are moving the market directly by betting themselves!JBriskinindyref2 said:
I've been to a count with a smartphone - you just don't do it; ethics innitChris said:
You're pulling my leg, aren't you?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
"The Political Punter How to make money betting on politics, by Mike Smithson", p102JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.
Case study – Dunfermline by-election, February 2006
Labour had gone into the contest as very strong favourite and had retained that status almost up to the end. This is how the final 25 minutes looked to gamblers. It serves as a salutary warning..
12:08am News24–LibDemslooklikethey’vewonaccordingto Curtice.
12:08am FromBBC–‘LibDemsmayhavedoneit’
12:09am MoneyavailableonLibDemsbetfairat2.0–£100ifyouwant it!
12:10am Gonenow.
12:10am SkyNews–‘villagevote’maywinitforLabour.VERYclose.
12:15am LibDemsnarrowfavouriteonBetfair.
12:23am LabourfavouritesagainonBetfair
12:24am Exactlymatchedon1.8now…
12:27am LookslikeLabour.
12:28am BetfairindicatingaLabourhold.I’mafraid
12:29am There’smoneytobehadonBetfairat1.2ifLabourhavewon
12:30am Reallypoorshowfromthenewschannelshere
12:32am LDwon0 -
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.JBriskinindyref2 said:
I've been to a count with a smartphone - you just don't do it; ethics innitChris said:
You're pulling my leg, aren't you?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Brecon & Radnorshire:
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) August 2, 2019
Result expected within next 30 minutes. Recount not expected.0 -
No, it didn't. It spoke of friendship and some upper-upper-middle class entitlement and idiocy.justin124 said:
His friendship with Darius Guppy spoke volumes.Byronic said:
Citation required.edmundintokyo said:
Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.AndyJS said:
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.
I am quite prepared to critique Boris, or even condemn him. But these endless character assassinations, of Boris. from the Left, and from Remainerdom, smack of hysteria and desperation.
Corbyn is the one who invited the IRA to the Commons weeks after the Brighton Bomb. Corbyn is the one who elevates Stalinists like McDonnell and Milne to power. Corbyn is the one who cavorts with anti-Semites and Islamists and seems to revel in the fact. Corbyn is the one who overlaps with Chavezy economics and Holocaust deniers.
Both politicians are contentious. Only Corbyn is actively repulsive to most Britons. And for a reason.
Goodnight.0 -
PB header from 9th Feb 2006.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/02/10/lib-dems-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-the-betting/0 -
Whatever happens tonight my guess is that the Tories will win this seat in the GE.0
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Clearly an comfortable Lib Dem win.Saltire said:Brecon & Radnorshire:
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) August 2, 2019
Result expected within next 30 minutes. Recount not expected.0 -
But MoneyavailableonLibDemsbetfairat2.0 is an order of magnitude different from what we've been talking about here.viewcode said:
"The Political Punter How to make money betting on politics, by Mike Smithson", p102JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.
Case study – Dunfermline by-election, February 2006
Labour had gone into the contest as very strong favourite and had retained that status almost up to the end. This is how the final 25 minutes looked to gamblers. It serves as a salutary warning..
12:08am News24–LibDemslooklikethey’vewonaccordingto Curtice.
12:08am FromBBC–‘LibDemsmayhavedoneit’
12:09am MoneyavailableonLibDemsbetfairat2.0–£100ifyouwant it!
12:10am Gonenow.
12:10am SkyNews–‘villagevote’maywinitforLabour.VERYclose.
12:15am LibDemsnarrowfavouriteonBetfair.
12:23am LabourfavouritesagainonBetfair
12:24am Exactlymatchedon1.8now…
12:27am LookslikeLabour.
12:28am BetfairindicatingaLabourhold.I’mafraid
12:29am There’smoneytobehadonBetfairat1.2ifLabourhavewon
12:30am Reallypoorshowfromthenewschannelshere
12:32am LDwon0 -
You can still read the comments on here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20061122193527/http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/02/10/lib-dems-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-the-betting/
How many of those posters are still on the site today? Andrea is. And Harry Hayfield.1 -
LDs backed off the boards on Betfair. No LD layers left. Tories @ 100.0
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Looks like the LDs have won.0
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DecrepitJohnL said:
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.
I was able to pile £200-something on Lab Hold Tooting at the last election at something like 1.69 half an hour after the polls closed, which was ridiculous, given how obvious it was even much earlier in the day that we hadn't even come close.
I suspect the LD margin of victory in B&R will be a bit less than the BXP vote, which will open up all manner of cans of worms...
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It seems like Auchentennach Fine Pies will expand into rural Wales ....
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Just scanned the thread and I’m there! Post 126. 13 years of my life, off and on. That was a good night, I hope this one is too.AndyJS said:You can still read the comments on here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20061122193527/http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/02/10/lib-dems-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-the-betting/
How many of those posters are still on the site today? Andrea is. And Harry Hayfield.
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If Tory + BRX > 50%, Brexit supporters will spin it as a victory.SirBenjamin said:DecrepitJohnL said:
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.
I was able to pile £200-something on Lab Hold Tooting at the last election at something like 1.69 half an hour after the polls closed, which was ridiculous, given how obvious it was even much earlier in the day that we hadn't even come close.
I suspect the LD margin of victory in B&R will be a bit less than the BXP vote, which will open up all manner of cans of worms...0 -
In English please.0
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A fortune here for any Welsh speakers
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Anyone understand Welsh?0
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If Tory + BRX = 0 votes they would find some way of doing that.AndyJS said:
If Tory + BRX > 50%, Brexit supporters will spin it as a victory.SirBenjamin said:DecrepitJohnL said:
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.
I was able to pile £200-something on Lab Hold Tooting at the last election at something like 1.69 half an hour after the polls closed, which was ridiculous, given how obvious it was even much earlier in the day that we hadn't even come close.
I suspect the LD margin of victory in B&R will be a bit less than the BXP vote, which will open up all manner of cans of worms...0 -
Hilarious!0
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#youhadonejob0
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The returning officer has forgotten to read the main candidates' figures in English. He did for the minor ones.0
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The befuddled Returning Officer I mean!The_Woodpecker said:Hilarious!
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What's going on?0
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Sky News forgot to get a Welsh speaker on board for their coverage.0
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The returning officer had two jobs to do and he failed to do one of them, ie. read all the results in English as well as Welsh.0
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LD gain is all I'm getting from Sky news.
Night all0 -
Not more than 1,000 majority - 13, 000 to 12,000 I think Labour may have saved its deposit.0
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Tories got surprisingly close.0
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Dear oh dear what a muppet! I reckon maybe 1500-1800 majority? Dodds got 13K plus votes and Davies 12K plus?0
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Over 50% for Brexit but LD gain. Wonder who'll be obsessed with electoral system tonight?SouthamObserver said:0 -
My prediction wasn't far off in the end: I had 45% / 37% / 11% / 5.5%.SouthamObserver said:0 -
No greens, no plaid running against a criminal who still got nearly 40%. Easy Tory regain at a GE which now looks inevitableArtist said:Tories got surprisingly close.
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LD win but Tories will be pleased to have got much closer than the only by election poll suggested they would.SouthamObserver said:
Labour vote collapsed0 -
I got 13,000 something for the LDs. Couldn’t understand anything else!0
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She's one of those women who seems sort of attractive at first but becomes quite irritating within a few minutes and never regains her earlier appeal, isn't she?0
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Nice to see you on there. I didn't expect the Wayback Machine to have that page available.tpfkar said:
Just scanned the thread and I’m there! Post 126. 13 years of my life, off and on. That was a good night, I hope this one is too.AndyJS said:You can still read the comments on here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20061122193527/http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/02/10/lib-dems-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-the-betting/
How many of those posters are still on the site today? Andrea is. And Harry Hayfield.0 -
Result closer to Mori and Yougov than other pollsters so good for Tories on that basis0
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Betting opportunity for diehard Brexiteers: £140 at 1000 on the Tories to win on Betfair Exchange!0
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Wonder if it was postal votes while May was PM what lost it?0
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UKIP behind the Loonies, it's SDP Bootle territory for them0
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You are seriously good at this shit. Kudos.AndyJS said:
My prediction wasn't far off in the end: I had 45% / 37% / 11% / 5.5%.SouthamObserver said:
Is this the most boring result possible? LDs win, nut not by as much as expected. Tories lose, but not by as much as expected. Labour lose badly, but hold their deposit.
A massive massive YAWN. And a genuine Goodnight to all.0 -
Definitely looks like a Tory gain. There’s no more Labour vote to squeeze.dyedwoolie said:
No greens, no plaid running against a criminal who still got nearly 40%. Easy Tory regain at a GE which now looks inevitableArtist said:Tories got surprisingly close.
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1425 majority according to Sky.0
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Labour saved their deposit by 91 votes.0
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Official Loony defeats Loony UKIP ....
Good morning ....0 -
Per RodCrosby model which used to be debated on here at lot many years ago - Small Lab to Con swing would imply very positive for Con at subsequent GE.0
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The new thread is quite quiet.0
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Con + BRX + UKIP = 50.2%.0
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B&R votes 51.86% To Leave in 2016.AndyJS said:Con + BRX + UKIP = 50.2%.
(UK voted 51.89% to Leave).0 -
A move to Remain but not a big one.Gardenwalker said:0
