In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.
I think Swinson has more potential than Davey, who comes across badly IMO.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.
Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.
Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.
The postal vote anomalies were mentioned and discussed *prior* to the counts.
Isn't the point around postal vote verifications that it gives the first indications of turnout, and specifically turnout for identifiable groups of voters (mostly the Tory-leaning elderly)?
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 8m Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.
I think Swinson has more potential than Davey, who comes across badly IMO.
Both of them need to step up. Whilst people are rightly saying the unfavourable ratings of the PM and LOTO are poor, the same applies to Swinson. They need to quickly build a team together that looks capable, serious and motivated along with policies beyond brexit that can deliver real change.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 8m Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
If true, would be extremely low given the seat’s track record. But people are fairly p’d off with politics right now. OTOH that could be the polling station turnout, with a lot of PVs to be added given all the temporary ones for holiday absences.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 8m Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
It'll be a bit odd if the Tories lose their majority and nothing happens for the next 5 weeks because everyone's on holiday. Especially with the 31st October deadline looming.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour. Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.
Not there. I always expected that to be the last redoubt of 'donkey with red rosette.' Heck, they even sent Peter Hain and Stephen Kinnock to Parliament!
But if that area has crumbled away from them...
Nos da.
I just can’t see the incentive to vote Labour in this election. Really what’s the point, unless you’re truly tribal? If you care about Brexit one way or the other you’d go LD or BXP. If you don’t you wouldn’t bother voting at all.
Mind you, having said that, I met a bloke in Brecon who expressed simple and unalloyed enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn. He didn’t live in the constituency though.
Nick Palmer was just passing through. Only bloke in country who now fits that description.
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.
We shan't really know that from the result, unfortunately. No doubt it's a bit of both, but who knows how much?
Here in deepest Surrey the anti-Tory vote is very much that, and flows naturally to whoever is in a position to challenge it. That's how I got onto the council (with a colleague, the first Labour councillors since 2002). I know very few voters who will only vote Lab or only LibDem.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Three would be the Tory majority in reality - because Elphicke - whilst now an Independent since having had the Whip withdrawn - can be relied upon to support the Tories.
If the test of the Tory majority is those who can be relied upon to support, the majority has already expired.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 8m Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
Boris Bounce in operation.
Boris bounce.
Or
Bad Libdem candidate choice and bollocks to brexit will not work everywhere.
Could someone explain why you can bet on Plaid Cymru on Betfair when they aren't even standing?!!!!
I thought that - surely worth a lay???
There's no money on the table to lay. The market will have gone up before nominations closed, and someone is offering to relieve people of a few bob if they are stupid.
£30 total has been bet on PC out of £413,447 - all presumably before they withdrew.
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.
We shan't really know that from the result, unfortunately. No doubt it's a bit of both, but who knows how much?
Here in deepest Surrey the anti-Tory vote is very much that, and flows naturally to whoever is in a position to challenge it. That's how I got onto the council (with a colleague, the first Labour councillors since 2002). I know very few voters who will only vote Lab or only LibDem.
And of course National Health Action came second in the constituency at GE2017.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 4m Another Conservative: the boxes are looking better than we thought.
Mmm. That depends on how they thought though? Could mean winning, could mean keeping it close.
Could just be that the ornery backwoodsman don't like being told they have to ditch an MP they really quite liked.....
Still expect the LibDems to gain, but if they don't, they'll need those Tory defections tomorrow as the distraction strategy.
Can't see the defections happening tomorrow. Surely if they were coming over, they should have done it before the by-election to help them win?
(a) waiting to see how it goes; and (b) after tomorrow, a defector deprives Johnson of a majority, rather than merely reducing it, which is a bigger story.
I agree that I don't think they'd go tomorrow though, as it would be swallowed up by by-election win story should it happen.
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.
In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.
I think Swinson has more potential than Davey, who comes across badly IMO.
Both of them need to step up. Whilst people are rightly saying the unfavourable ratings of the PM and LOTO are poor, the same applies to Swinson. They need to quickly build a team together that looks capable, serious and motivated along with policies beyond brexit that can deliver real change.
In all seriousness it’s not so easy to do that when you are a minor party in two party fptp system. Libdems have had most joy at ballot box when saying bollocks to Iraq war, bollocks to tuition fees, and it seems bollocks to brexit, none of those successful slogans are actual policy to survive the test of government, just lazily exploiting one side of an argument for easy votes at expense of those with a more realistic policy. If you want to argue, you explain you won’t raise the funding from tuition fees or will fund it another way, that of course may not be so catchy a slogan on billboard or such vote winner, likewise bollocks to brexit is bollocks to the votes of 17.4M voters who won a democratic election, that isn’t sustainable if entering into government tomorrow.
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plus
Hey, Viewcode, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, election leaflets, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got bar charts, knocker uppers...
The LDs won Hay in the 2017 local elections so if true looks neck and neck
The town's will be the decider? Where most people live and vote will decide who wins. Amazing analysis.
You always get a lot of statements of the obvious on by-election nights while awaiting the results, because people struggle to find anything new to say.
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plus
I wouldn’t trust any polling day quantitative data since it’s almost impossible to get any - any activist is only chasing their own voters. What you can get is a ‘feel’ if people down as supporters are showing doubts, or alternatively people down as probable have become certain and enthusiastic.
In terms of preparing the ground for the forthcoming GE, would not the best result for the Tories be a narrow loss to allow them to cite the example of Brecon and Radnor in squeezing the Brexit Party vote? i.e. Vote Brexit Party, get Remain.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour. Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.
Not there. I always expected that to be the last redoubt of 'donkey with red rosette.' Heck, they even sent Peter Hain and Stephen Kinnock to Parliament!
But if that area has crumbled away from them...
Nos da.
I just can’t see the incentive to vote Labour in this election. Really what’s the point, unless you’re truly tribal? If you care about Brexit one way or the other you’d go LD or BXP. If you don’t you wouldn’t bother voting at all.
Mind you, having said that, I met a bloke in Brecon who expressed simple and unalloyed enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn. He didn’t live in the constituency though.
Nick Palmer was just passing through. Only bloke in country who now fits that description.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
In terms of preparing the ground for the forthcoming GE, would not the best result for the Tories be a narrow loss to allow them to cite the example of Brecon and Radnor in squeezing the Brexit Party vote? i.e. Vote Brexit Party, get Remain.
A narrow Tory loss and Brexit Party third would certainly not be a disaster
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
You should expect a call from Boris himself
I expect Boris would be hungover and having a celebratory 'morning in bed' with Carrie!
OH FOR FUCKS SAKE MASTERS! HIS PREVIOUS CONVOS WERE WITH CONS! NOW HE'S TALKING TO THE LIBS! THEY ARE SAYING DIFFERENT THINGS! BAD ITV PERSON! GIVE BETTER DATA!
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 8m Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
Again. Depends what they expected.
Who do you think labour sources want to win this one, out of the two candidates who can actually win? My guess is tonight Labour are rooting for the libdems.
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plus
I wouldn’t trust any polling day quantitative data since it’s almost impossible to get any - any activist is only chasing their own voters. What you can get is a ‘feel’ if people down as supporters are showing doubts, or alternatively people down as probable have become certain and enthusiastic.
Once the boxes are open, and since it's still polling day - those are real votes being tallied.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
We’ll all be wishing you’d done a third hour, telling all those unwanted remainers to p**s off and vote LibDem.
BTW doesn’t the Tory system allow helpers to phone from their home?
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
You know that happened in IRL in Scotland in 2017(?). Canvasser gave oldie lift to polling station. Oldie voted for them. They won by very few votes.
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.
We shan't really know that from the result, unfortunately. No doubt it's a bit of both, but who knows how much?
Here in deepest Surrey the anti-Tory vote is very much that, and flows naturally to whoever is in a position to challenge it. That's how I got onto the council (with a colleague, the first Labour councillors since 2002). I know very few voters who will only vote Lab or only LibDem.
And of course National Health Action came second in the constituency at GE2017.
Exactly - the view then was that they had the best chance.
Good job grayling wont be in charge of the freeports project, otherwise we would be ending up with ones in places like Wolverhampton and swindon...
It is a meaningless announcement. If they said definitively that some coastal towns or cities were going to get this status that would be great but they are not. It is a no cost Government announcement! I expect we will probably never hear about it again in a few months. It is a bit like Labour's proposed spending when Lord Mandelson got the "Governments chequebook out" to back schemes in certain parts of the country in 2009 - 2010...
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plus
I wouldn’t trust any polling day quantitative data since it’s almost impossible to get any - any activist is only chasing their own voters. What you can get is a ‘feel’ if people down as supporters are showing doubts, or alternatively people down as probable have become certain and enthusiastic.
Once the boxes are open, and since it's still polling day - those are real votes being tallied.
But the supposed data came in during the day.
The votes being tallied now exclude PVs, of which there are a lot, it being August and all, and a relatively elderly population and a lot of remote properties.
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
We’ll all be wishing you’d done a third hour, telling all those unwanted remainers to p**s off and vote LibDem.
BTW doesn’t the Tory system allow helpers to phone from their home?
By the time I had got back from work was quicker to phone from CCHQ plus went for drinks afterwards in Westminster with some interns across parties and Epping colleagues
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]
That being said, if the Tories had no chance they be telling him they were miles behind wouldn’t they? We’d have the liberals saying “too close to call” and the Tories saying “lost because of the Brexit Party” already.
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
You know that happened in IRL in Scotland in 2017(?). Canvasser gave oldie lift to polling station. Oldie voted for them. They won by very few votes.
I don't think looking at that you understand what a freeport or enterprise zone entails. You are correct that it is named as "Braintree Freeport" but I don't think it has the status or advantages associated with that anymore if it ever did.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
You should expect a call from Boris himself
I expect Boris would be hungover and having a celebratory 'morning in bed' with Carrie!
Oh the joys of lying in... oh! Has he just spilt last nights Pinot on the sheets. Oh dear. Put the new iPad down. No don’t throw - Crash! Put the laptop down, it’s what I must use to start nuclear war. No don’t throw it
Further down the ballot will Lily the Pink mop up hard left votes in error?
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]
And the completely inexperienced BXP Ltd. activists are the last people I would trust to do a tally properly. In a varied seat like B&R you’d need a representative spread across the seat to get a good fix on the result.
Probably expectations management on their part, so when they and the combined leave vote does better than that they can spin it as good news.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
You know that happened in IRL in Scotland in 2017(?). Canvasser gave oldie lift to polling station. Oldie voted for them. They won by very few votes.
I don't think looking at that you understand what a freeport or enterprise zone entails. You are correct that it is named as "Braintree Freeport" but I don't think it has the status or advantages associated with that anymore if it ever did.
Does it encourage local young people to hang around port areas at night, hoping for gainful employment?
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
You should expect a call from Boris himself
I expect Boris would be hungover and having a celebratory 'morning in bed' with Carrie!
Oh the joys of lying in... oh! Has he just spilt last nights Pinot on the sheets. Oh dear. Put the new iPad down. No don’t throw - Crash! Put the laptop down, it’s what I must use to start nuclear war. No don’t throw it
Further down the ballot will Lily the Pink mop up hard left votes in error?
The people’s flag is slightly pink, it’s not as red as most folks think?
Comments
@adrianmasters84
·
8m
Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
The LDs won Hay in the 2017 local elections so if true looks neck and neck
Here in deepest Surrey the anti-Tory vote is very much that, and flows naturally to whoever is in a position to challenge it. That's how I got onto the council (with a colleague, the first Labour councillors since 2002). I know very few voters who will only vote Lab or only LibDem.
Still expect the LibDems to gain, but if they don't, they'll need those Tory defections tomorrow as the distraction strategy.
Or
Bad Libdem candidate choice and bollocks to brexit will not work everywhere.
Or
Brexit trumps party politics yet again.
£30 total has been bet on PC out of £413,447 - all presumably before they withdrew.
15/1-£58, 16/1-£27, 17/1-£37
If they win, you get £870+432+629=£1,932
I agree that I don't think they'd go tomorrow though, as it would be swallowed up by by-election win story should it happen.
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157059286444466177?s=20
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49198825
Although normally the PVs favour the Tories, with so many pensioners attracted to BXP Ltd. this may not be the case this time.
5/1-£20, 5.1-£82, 5.2-£90
That's £100+£418+£468 = £986. Somebody is emptying his sack.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
"The UK had seven of them at various points between 1984 and 2012, when the legislation establishing them was not renewed. " from the BBC article.
[yup. Need more sleep...
BTW doesn’t the Tory system allow helpers to phone from their home?
The votes being tallied now exclude PVs, of which there are a lot, it being August and all, and a relatively elderly population and a lot of remote properties.
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]
Further down the ballot will Lily the Pink mop up hard left votes in error?
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157063445856043008
Probably expectations management on their part, so when they and the combined leave vote does better than that they can spin it as good news.