31m Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems. Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84
That, if confirmed, is big, big news. That would be a disaster for Labour.
But the other tweets are as usual a mix of gossip, speculation and people who are as clueless as our favourite geographer from Epping, all contradicting themselves, so I'm not getting carried away just yet.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 19m Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour. Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?
Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.
And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.
Having totally crap candidates doesn't seem to have held back the Tories or Labour much over the past 50 years or more.
Quite obviously so!
Most LD candidates come from local government, not glamorous but probably better preparation than being a kiss-arse SPAD.
I know many fine councillors of various parties who would make excellent MPs. Given most become cllrs quite late it's not like they will always have worked in politics either, which is a plus.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
Literally all of them. And Heidi. And Anna Soubry. Not at the same time though.
So we've had one estimate of as low as 40%, one of higher than 65%.
To be honest, Davies' sweet spot was probably around 50-55%. Anything less and his voters would be staying home, any more and people cross with his fiddling are probably out voting. So either way that's probably not helpful for him.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 19m Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.
I agree. These rumours have been swirling around for ages, and the only justification for acting now would be if the LibDem win were to be so emphatic that it is clearly an overwhelming rejection by voters of the new government’s policy. Otherwise, it would have made more sense to have acted on Bozo’s accession, or wait until there is a significant development in government policy/action on Brexit when parliament resumes.
Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.
Could they drop into the hundreds?
As many as that !!!!
Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well
They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote
They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.
However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government
And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE
Corbyn is your albatross
You think Cooper or Starmer or Benn would get a 15 % swing to come through from third and take this seat? That's a pretty high assessment of their capabilities.
Or a realistic assessment of how poor the PM is. Just as he does well because he is up against Corbyn, a sensible Labour leader would do well against Johnson.
Indeed a sensible labour leader would have united all the opposition to remain and it would have been over before now
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 35m There's a bit of annoyance at the party centrally. Some Conservatives were disappointed that Boris Johnson didn't make more of his campaign stop in Brecon on Tuesday. A lot of activists were ready and waiting for him but he didn't go walkabout. Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 35m Some have also reported similar annoyance that Alun Cairns didn't campaign more than a visit to the Royal Welsh show which one said is remarkable given that he's the Secretary of State.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.
It's not possible. Parliament doesn't allow either/or votes.
He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).
Sensible post until someone tacked on some nonsense in brackets at the end.
My tongue was a little in my cheek at that point, but it's not that wildly implausible. Imagine Boris is forced to revoke by his own stupidity as considered above (I don't think he is nearly that stupid, but that's a different question) and the government promptly collapses in a heap, causing a GE.
In such a GE, almost no-one will vote Tory (as they will have hacked off just about everybody, and will be having a good sized civil war), Brexiteers are pretty much all going to go with Farage, so you could plausibily see a vote share of say 8% Tory, 38% Brexit, 26% Lab, 23% Lib, 5% Others, which would indeed lead to PM Farage.
Ultimately there is about 40% of the vote out there for clearly leave parties. With a split opposition, any act which unifys the leave vote in one place is likely to win big at a GE. Currently, Boris is going Uber-leave to try to achieve this - however if he stuffs this up as discussed above, he will probably manage to unify the leave vote in the Brexit party instead.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 35m There's a bit of annoyance at the party centrally. Some Conservatives were disappointed that Boris Johnson didn't make more of his campaign stop in Brecon on Tuesday. A lot of activists were ready and waiting for him but he didn't go walkabout. Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 35m Some have also reported similar annoyance that Alun Cairns didn't campaign more than a visit to the Royal Welsh show which one said is remarkable given that he's the Secretary of State.
You may not have noticed but Masters has retracted the latter tweet.
Anyway, it looks as though nothing is happening so I'm going to bed. Will be interested to see the result in the morning.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour. Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 19m Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.
Isn't the point that you want to choose your moment to create a sense of momentum?
Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?
I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.
The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.
I think you mean "bet £100 to win £2" Mr High Roller!
He really means risk £1000 for the prospect of maybe making £20.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour. Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.
Not there. I always expected that to be the last redoubt of 'donkey with red rosette.' Heck, they even sent Peter Hain and Stephen Kinnock to Parliament!
If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?
And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...
It's not possible. Parliament doesn't allow either/or votes.
He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).
Sensible post until someone tacked on some nonsense in brackets at the end.
My tongue was a little in my cheek at that point, but it's not that wildly implausible. Imagine Boris is forced to revoke by his own stupidity as considered above (I don't think he is nearly that stupid, but that's a different question) and the government promptly collapses in a heap, causing a GE.
In such a GE, almost no-one will vote Tory (as they will have hacked off just about everybody, and will be having a good sized civil war), Brexiteers are pretty much all going to go with Farage, so you could plausibily see a vote share of say 8% Tory, 38% Brexit, 26% Lab, 23% Lib, 5% Others, which would indeed lead to PM Farage.
Ultimately there is about 40% of the vote out there for clearly leave parties. With a split opposition, any act which unifys the leave vote in one place is likely to win big at a GE. Currently, Boris is going Uber-leave to try to achieve this - however if he stuffs this up as discussed above, he will probably manage to unify the leave vote in the Brexit party instead.
Even in that scenario, I cannot see BXP Ltd getting 38%; Farage is toxic to too many.
Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?
I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.
The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.
I think you mean "bet £100 to win £2" Mr High Roller!
He really means risk £1000 for the prospect of maybe making £20.
That's semantics
Anywhoos, I've got some intel for you guys-
Ms Brisk is wearing a yellow t-shirt tonight (despite me showing her my B&R book - "I don't want a No-Deal Brexit")
Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.
Could they drop into the hundreds?
As many as that !!!!
Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well
They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote
They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.
However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government
And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE
Corbyn is your albatross
Not really. There's a chasm between the SDP and the SWP. Past PMs such as Attlee and Wilson implemented democratic socialist policies. They belonged to neither of these wings but were somewhere in between.
McDonnell I assume realises this. He has experience of govt on the GLC, after all, although it was 35 years ago. Corbyn probably doesn't.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 19m Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.
Isn't the point that you want to choose your moment to create a sense of momentum?
Right before the long August break doesn’t feel like it.
If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?
And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 19m Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.
Isn't the point that you want to choose your moment to create a sense of momentum?
Right before the long August break doesn’t feel like it.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 19m Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.
Isn't the point that you want to choose your moment to create a sense of momentum?
I'm sure it is, but constantly talking about it happening gets a bit thin when most times it does not. Thank goodness for the Tiggers for finally going through with what, for most of them, everyone suspected they might do for a long time.
We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.
Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:
1. It's set at Christmas 2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film. 3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman 4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…” 5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly" 6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.
If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?
And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...
There's Portillo on the Tories on C5
He's an expert on trains, so the current traincrash must be right up his alley.
Right, I'm too tired to stay up till 1:00am or beyond so I am going to have to miss the actual moment the orange revolution took off / the Remainer alliance imploded (delete as appropriate).
Night all - I look forward to the multiple interpretations of what it all means in the morning.
When the by election was called, it was clear the Tory tactic was to let the crook stand, then we can blame him for the inevitable loss. Now, it could be that they only lost because the candidate was a crook! Which would be deliciously ironic!
In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour. Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.
Not there. I always expected that to be the last redoubt of 'donkey with red rosette.' Heck, they even sent Peter Hain and Stephen Kinnock to Parliament!
But if that area has crumbled away from them...
Nos da.
I just can’t see the incentive to vote Labour in this election. Really what’s the point, unless you’re truly tribal? If you care about Brexit one way or the other you’d go LD or BXP. If you don’t you wouldn’t bother voting at all.
Mind you, having said that, I met a bloke in Brecon who expressed simple and unalloyed enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn. He didn’t live in the constituency though.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 2m Several Conservatives have now told me this has been a nasty campaign. 'The dirtiest campaign I've ever known,' said one. Including personal abuse. Show this thread Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 3m Conservatives are cheered after seeing another batch of boxes which look good for them. They still think it's going to be tight though.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.
Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.
If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?
And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...
We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.
Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:
1. It's set at Christmas 2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film. 3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman 4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…” 5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly" 6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.
We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.
Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:
1. It's set at Christmas 2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film. 3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman 4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…” 5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly" 6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.
Of course its a Christmas film!
It's Home Alone for grown ups. Is Home Alone a Christmas film?
Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?
I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.
The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.
I think you mean "bet £100 to win £2" Mr High Roller!
He really means risk £1000 for the prospect of maybe making £20.
That's semantics
Anywhoos, I've got some intel for you guys-
Ms Brisk is wearing a yellow t-shirt tonight (despite me showing her my B&R book - "I don't want a No-Deal Brexit")
What colour has she worn for previous elections, and how do you assess the error?
If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?
And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...
Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?
I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.
The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.
I think you mean "bet £100 to win £2" Mr High Roller!
He really means risk £1000 for the prospect of maybe making £20.
That's semantics
Anywhoos, I've got some intel for you guys-
Ms Brisk is wearing a yellow t-shirt tonight (despite me showing her my B&R book - "I don't want a No-Deal Brexit")
What colour has she worn for previous elections, and how do you assess the error?
She normally just wears her hippyish neutral colours for election nights - I'm not sure about the error... if it is an error...
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 2m Several Conservatives have now told me this has been a nasty campaign. 'The dirtiest campaign I've ever known,' said one. Including personal abuse. Show this thread Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 3m Conservatives are cheered after seeing another batch of boxes which look good for them. They still think it's going to be tight though.
Perhaps they might consider personal abuse might be less likely if they dont put forward a convicted expense fiddler? Perhaps abuse at the party might be less likely if they rule out perfoming a coup against parliament.
In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.
But would it? Wouldn't it be better the morning after the transparent attempt to re-unite the Right by swallowing TBP whole, by simply becoming them, has failed? At the very least, it would point up the need for a new strategy. And leave a modicum of time for a re-think. Not that I buy it, mind.
We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.
Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:
1. It's set at Christmas 2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film. 3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman 4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…” 5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly" 6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.
Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.
Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.
Not correct. Under Alec Douglas- Home the Tories lost the Luton by election in November 1963 on the same day he was elected for Kinross & West Perthshire - ie less than a month after becoming PM.
We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.
Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:
1. It's set at Christmas 2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film. 3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman 4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…” 5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly" 6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.
Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.
Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.
How does that happen? How do you know which way round the voter has stuffed them into the envelope? Even if it says to stuff it one way, I imagine many would stuff it the other way and that's not a spoilt ballot.
If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?
And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...
There's Portillo on the Tories on C5
Portillo. Hmph. Is he wearing that stupid blazer?
Which one? He has more blazer's than Imelda Marcos had pairs of shoes! They are all awful as well! Vomit inducing - just like his political observations...
1) POSTAL VOTES One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS Has anybody done a model of the vote?
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.
I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.
Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.
Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.
The postal vote anomalies were mentioned and discussed *prior* to the counts.
But would it? Wouldn't it be better the morning after the transparent attempt to re-unite the Right by swallowing TBP whole, by simply becoming them, has failed? At the very least, it would point up the need for a new strategy. And leave a modicum of time for a re-think. Not that I buy it, mind.
I see your point. OTOH, as @IanB2 remarked, just before everyone disappears on their hols doesn't seem entirely a good idea.
I propose we should have a national referendum on whether die hard is a christmas movie. That would settle the issue once and for all.
Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.
31m Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems. Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84
That, if confirmed, is big, big news. That would be a disaster for Labour.
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
31m Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems. Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84
That, if confirmed, is big, big news. That would be a disaster for Labour.
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.
My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win. Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close. I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Three would be the Tory majority in reality - because Elphicke - whilst now an Independent since having had the Whip withdrawn - can be relied upon to support the Tories.
Comments
But the other tweets are as usual a mix of gossip, speculation and people who are as clueless as our favourite geographer from Epping, all contradicting themselves, so I'm not getting carried away just yet.
To be circumspect, I’ve never knowingly eaten one.
And I’ve never seen Die Hard either.
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
To be honest, Davies' sweet spot was probably around 50-55%. Anything less and his voters would be staying home, any more and people cross with his fiddling are probably out voting. So either way that's probably not helpful for him.
Or a realistic assessment of how poor the PM is. Just as he does well because he is up against Corbyn, a sensible Labour leader would do well against Johnson.
Indeed a sensible labour leader would have united all the opposition to remain and it would have been over before now
@adrianmasters84
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There's a bit of annoyance at the party centrally. Some Conservatives were disappointed that Boris Johnson didn't make more of his campaign stop in Brecon on Tuesday. A lot of activists were ready and waiting for him but he didn't go walkabout.
Adrian Masters
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Some have also reported similar annoyance that Alun Cairns didn't campaign more than a visit to the Royal Welsh show which one said is remarkable given that he's the Secretary of State.
In such a GE, almost no-one will vote Tory (as they will have hacked off just about everybody, and will be having a good sized civil war), Brexiteers are pretty much all going to go with Farage, so you could plausibily see a vote share of say 8% Tory, 38% Brexit, 26% Lab, 23% Lib, 5% Others, which would indeed lead to PM Farage.
Ultimately there is about 40% of the vote out there for clearly leave parties. With a split opposition, any act which unifys the leave vote in one place is likely to win big at a GE. Currently, Boris is going Uber-leave to try to achieve this - however if he stuffs this up as discussed above, he will probably manage to unify the leave vote in the Brexit party instead.
https://www.radiotimes.com/news/film/2018-07-16/bruce-willis-just-confirmed-whether-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/
Anyway, it looks as though nothing is happening so I'm going to bed. Will be interested to see the result in the morning.
Good night.
Betfair has it at 1.04 Lib to win, and if somebody put down about £8K they could scoop up about £300. Or lose the £8K, of course. Pesky steamroller...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159853905
@adrianmasters84
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The Brexit party believe they've done enough to lure Labour leave voters to vote for them.
But if that area has crumbled away from them...
Nos da.
Anywhoos, I've got some intel for you guys-
Ms Brisk is wearing a yellow t-shirt tonight (despite me showing her my B&R book - "I don't want a No-Deal Brexit")
McDonnell I assume realises this. He has experience of govt on the GLC, after all, although it was 35 years ago. Corbyn probably doesn't.
Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:
1. It's set at Christmas
2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film.
3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman
4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…”
5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly"
6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.
Night all - I look forward to the multiple interpretations of what it all means in the morning.
Now, it could be that they only lost because the candidate was a crook!
Which would be deliciously ironic!
@adrianmasters84
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50% of Conservative signs were defaced last night apparently and 'it wasn't the first time' I'm told.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.
Mind you, having said that, I met a bloke in Brecon who expressed simple and unalloyed enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn. He didn’t live in the constituency though.
@adrianmasters84
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Several Conservatives have now told me this has been a nasty campaign. 'The dirtiest campaign I've ever known,' said one. Including personal abuse.
Show this thread
Adrian Masters
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Conservatives are cheered after seeing another batch of boxes which look good for them. They still think it's going to be tight though.
@adrianmasters84
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Conservatives seem to be doing well in the smaller towns of Brecon and Radnorshire.
It's Home Alone for grown ups. Is Home Alone a Christmas film?
WHO DARES WINS!
WE dare! WE will WIN!
@adrianmasters84
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Another Conservative: the boxes are looking better than we thought.
At the very least, it would point up the need for a new strategy. And leave a modicum of time for a re-think.
Not that I buy it, mind.
If they win, that gives you £870+£378+£225 = £1,473. If they don't, you lose £101.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159853905
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html