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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

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  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    Byronic said:

    If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES

    Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!

    Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?
    No. And I cannot give you one reason why 80% of Labour voters would not switch to the Lib Dems at a General Election, if the Lib Dems look like a credible, Remainery, Unionist opposition.

    Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.

    I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.
    My problem? That doesn’t even come in the top ten of my problems.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.
    So they said last time. Second time might be right, but it'll need to be tested to destruction to find out.
    For the first time in my life I do genuinely believe that we could see the complete disappearance of one of the major two parties.

    It happened to Labour in Scotland after the first indyref (and there are no signs of them returning five years later), I see no logical reason why it cannot happen to Labour, nationwide, after the first Brexitref,

    Massively important constitutional plebiscites have a habit, it seems, of transforming national political landscapes. A bit like wars.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    AndyJS said:

    My prediction numbers adjusted for the slightly lower turnout than I was expecting:

    LD 14,300
    Con 11,800
    BRX 3,500
    Lab 1,750
    UKIP 400
    Loony 100

    UKIP beating Loony. Brave call. I thought there were new rules about Party names which could be reasonably confused?.
  • Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Zephyr said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    Byronic said:

    If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES

    Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!

    Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?
    No. And I cannot give you one reason why 80% of Labour voters would not switch to the Lib Dems at a General Election, if the Lib Dems look like a credible, Remainery, Unionist opposition.

    Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.

    I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.
    My problem? That doesn’t even come in the top ten of my problems.
    Sorry dude. My bad! It's late and I think I mistook you for a dimwitted lefty.

    My ire is aimed at all Corbynites, and Labourites.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited August 2019
    I'm really gutted about the 59.7% turnout. I had 7 to 1 with Ladbrokes that it would be 60% or more
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    B&R Conservatives now 6 (30 to lay) on Betfair so someone thinks they know something.

    And in the time it takes to type that, it is back to 20/50. It may be people closing open positions, as there is not much money left.

    This seems to have had nowhere near the volume Peterborough had? Is that a function of its remoteness from folk with cash, or the sheer amount of other stuff going on?
    Ps, not expecting an answer from you. Just musing.
  • I'm really gutted about the 59.7% turn up. I had 7 to 1 with Ladbrokes that it would be 60 or more

    unlucky Mike
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    It was a very different seat pre-1983. Such commentators simply reveal their ignorance.
  • I see that tory 6 back on my screen. I'm going to cash out if it makes it to the blue part
  • I'm really gutted about the 59.7% turn up. I had 7 to 1 with Ladbrokes that it would be 60 or more

    You and me both. I recall, though, the AV referendum when I missed out on a turnout payday by 0.02 percent, and would've won had spoiled ballots counted!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.

    Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.

    But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lewis Goodall: LDs increasingly confident.
  • Fuck it I've logged out-

    Here's my crappy book-

    Con +163
    LD -28
    Brexit +8
    Other -102
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    dixiedean said:

    B&R Conservatives now 6 (30 to lay) on Betfair so someone thinks they know something.

    And in the time it takes to type that, it is back to 20/50. It may be people closing open positions, as there is not much money left.

    This seems to have had nowhere near the volume Peterborough had? Is that a function of its remoteness from folk with cash, or the sheer amount of other stuff going on?
    Ps, not expecting an answer from you. Just musing.
    There is (as SirNorfolkPassmore notes) more liquidity on the LibDems (as there invariably is on the favourite). Betfair, unusually, has the market principals in the wrong order.

    As for other stuff going on, there are two major racing festivals: Glorious Goodwood, and Galway in Ireland. And 3/4 of pb posts were on the test match rather than politics.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.

    Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.

    But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.

    Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.

    Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.

    But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
    But it is nothing like the disaster for Labour that Copeland was in late February 2017! The electoral dynamics of the seat in recent years always made a squeeze highly likely . Remember Richmond December 2016.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited August 2019
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    The polls are clearly showing Labour voters willing to vote LD, they are not showing LD voters willing to vote for Corbyn Labour
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    AndyJS said:

    Lewis Goodall: LDs increasingly confident.

    Surely not!

    Come on, Boris Believers, surely you have the sheer willpower to save the Tories?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.

    Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chris said:

    AndyJS said:

    Lewis Goodall: LDs increasingly confident.

    Surely not!

    Come on, Boris Believers, surely you have the sheer willpower to save the Tories?
    The Tories will be relying on Dominic Grieve for their majority after this result, someone who described a No Deal Brexit as "national suicide".
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    AndyJS said:

    Lewis Goodall: LDs increasingly confident.

    Yes hopefully the LD will win!

    I noticed Ed Davey on sky and my opinion that Swinson was the best candidate for leader was validated. I think Davey needs to relax when he is on TV as he looks uncomfortable. I dont dislike him but rather like the facial ticks of David Liddington, you notice the unease of Davey. Swinson on the otherhand comes across well to me, she seems normal, which is good for a third party leader.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    The polls are clearly showing Labour voters willing to vote LD, they are not showing LD voters willing to vote for Corbyn Labour
    Let's just hope we get a chance to see!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Thornberry could lose her seat to the LDs on the latest polls in an autumn general election
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.

    Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.
    Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returns
    A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    Byronic said:

    If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES

    Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!

    Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?
    No. And I cannot give you one reason why 80% of Labour voters would not switch to the Lib Dems at a General Election, if the Lib Dems look like a credible, Remainery, Unionist opposition.

    Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.

    I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.
    My problem? That doesn’t even come in the top ten of my problems.
    Sorry dude. My bad! It's late and I think I mistook you for a dimwitted lefty.

    My ire is aimed at all Corbynites, and Labourites.
    More tea vicar? A result will be along soon.

    Maybe not all lefties are dimwitted. The longer this goes on, Corbyn trashing the Corbyn brand, maybe less likely a corbynista follows him. So for southam I say chill dude, for every darkest hour there is always a rising sun.

    But for you Byron, isn’t this the moment Tory’s (like Hugo Young) signed up to vote Corbyn in for in the first place, shouldn’t you be enjoying it?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.

    Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.

    But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.

    Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.

    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157080345080205312

    Girl: Bloke! Get some stuff from the shop!
    Bloke: Whaddya want?
    Girl: Something vaguely good. Fruit. Nuts. Stuff like that.
    Bloke: Jaffa Cakes & vodka?
    Girl: Marry me.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Thornberry could lose her seat to the LDs on the latest polls in an autumn general election
    The polls are not implying the 25% swing needed for the LibDems to win Islington South!
  • Ms Brisk fading (lightweight)
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)
    Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.

    Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.

    But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.

    Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.

    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
    Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.

    Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.
    Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returns
    A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?
    Just as many will probably conclude the opposite.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    I'm not sure I can be bothered to stay up any later.

    Night all
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:
    Postal votes were the deciding factor in Eastleigh, Peterborough and Heywood & Middleton IIRC. UKIP won most votes on the day in Eastleigh and H&M, and the Brexit Party in Peterborough.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)
    Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.
    So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not sure I can be bothered to stay up any later.

    Night all

    Dude, you live in Los Angeles! It's 6pm there!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Postal votes were the deciding factor in Eastleigh, Peterborough and Heywood & Middleton IIRC. UKIP won most votes on the day in Eastleigh and H&M, and the Brexit Party in Peterborough.
    In which case those postal votes were not decisive!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not sure I can be bothered to stay up any later.

    Night all

    Dude, you live in Los Angeles! It's 6pm there!
    I'm in London (briefly).
  • justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.

    Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.
    His court case starts 6th September. Unlikely, I imagine, that it will be concluded before Brexit Day.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    edited August 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm not sure I can be bothered to stay up any later.

    Night all

    Dude, you live in Los Angeles! It's 6pm there!
    I'm in London (briefly).
    Ah, OK
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)
    Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.
    So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?
    ~23%
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019
    How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019

    How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?

    Surely no-one is that stupid. The party logos on the ballot paper ought to be a good enough guide.
  • How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?

    Always said we shouldn't let the plebs vote.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Postal votes were the deciding factor in Eastleigh, Peterborough and Heywood & Middleton IIRC. UKIP won most votes on the day in Eastleigh and H&M, and the Brexit Party in Peterborough.
    In which case those postal votes were not decisive!
    Postal votes gave the LDs victory in Eastleigh even though they were behind in poling stations on the day, and the same thing happened for Labour in Peterborough and in Heywood & Middleton AFAIK.
  • justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.

    Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.
    Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returns
    A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?
    4 surely?

    1 as baseline apparently. Elphicke surely makes 3 ... 1 less for opposition and 1 more for government as he won't abstain. O'Mara then makes 4.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.

    Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.

    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
    Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.
    That's an interesting and valid insight.

    I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)

    Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.

    And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?

    Always said we shouldn't let the plebs vote.
    Not letting them stand is a more direct solution :lol:
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:
    Postal votes were the deciding factor in Eastleigh, Peterborough and Heywood & Middleton IIRC. UKIP won most votes on the day in Eastleigh and H&M, and the Brexit Party in Peterborough.
    In which case those postal votes were not decisive!
    Postal votes gave the LDs victory in Eastleigh even though they were behind in poling stations on the day, and the same thing happened for Labour in Peterborough and in Heywood & Middleton AFAIK.
    Apologies ! I misread your earlier post - I missed the 'on the day ' reference.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.



    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
    Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.
    That's an interesting and valid insight.

    I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)

    Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.

    And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.
    But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited August 2019
    Sky news has pics of them tidying up the rubber bands - can't be too long now surely
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.

    Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.
    Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returns
    A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?
    4 surely?

    1 as baseline apparently. Elphicke surely makes 3 ... 1 less for opposition and 1 more for government as he won't abstain. O'Mara then makes 4.
    Aye.
    How different it all would have been if Change had run in the locals and the LDs hadn't got that boost by default. For all the misery of the post coalition, the Lib Dems have had a very lucky 2019 so far.
  • Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results? IIRC SNP won what was meant to be a SLAB hold but I may be wrong.

    Not saying that has happened tonight but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
  • Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results? IIRC SNP won what was meant to be a SLAB hold but I may be wrong.

    Not saying that has happened tonight but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
    Mike's book had an example of this - it's probably happened a few times
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)
    Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.
    So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?
    ~23%
    Sure it's not 11%? Or 100%?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.



    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
    Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.
    That's an interesting and valid insight.

    I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)

    Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.

    And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.
    But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.
    Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.
  • AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.



    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
    Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.
    That's an interesting and valid insight.

    I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)

    Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.

    And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.
    But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.
    Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.
    I'd class 20k new coppers to hassle the black kids off our streets as a malign policy.
  • What’s the realistic threshold for a recount?
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    justin124 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.



    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
    Boris is thet the gig.
    That's an interesting and valid insight.

    I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)

    Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.

    And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.
    But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.
    I'm not sure Boris is obviously more malign and disreputable than IRA-hugging, Hamas-loving Corbyn, and Corbyn has way more unpopular, far left, anti-British, Jew-hating political opinions.

    That said, it clear that Boris is Marmite. It's just that Corbyn is even more badly Marmitey. I am searching for a good culinary analogy. I have found it. If Boris is Political Marmite, then Corbyn is Political Maggot Cheese, AKA Sardinian Casu Marzu

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casu_marzu
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "19 minutes ago
    Jane Dodds, the Lib Dem candidate, has not yet arrived at the count."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/voters-head-to-the-polls-for-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-live-a4202956.html
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    What’s the realistic threshold for a recount?

    800 votes in a smallish seat like this.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)
    Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.
    So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?
    ~23%
    Sure it's not 11%? Or 100%?
    ~23%

    YAWN.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    AndyJS said:
    "01.21 Not one Labour MP has tweeted about this by-election since the polls have closed. Nor have many activists as far as I’ve seen. But who can blame them? The picture is bleak."

    :lol:

    Jezza gone by the morning???
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    Going from memory it wasn't far from that. OGH or others could give details.

    Not saying it's happened but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "01.52 Labour source at the count confirms that it’s “looking pretty close”, though the Lib Dems seem to have “edged it”. Adds: “Still concerned about our deposit…”"

    https://labourlist.org/2019/08/brecon-radnorshire-by-election-liveblog/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    Byronic said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight

    Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?
    But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.

    That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.

    Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.

    if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
    Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)
    Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.
    So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?
    ~23%
    Sure it's not 11%? Or 100%?
    ~23%

    YAWN.
    Have some compassion on the people who are taking the trouble to try to make sense of this stuff!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Everyone in Islington is wondering: where's this strange place where people still seem to be voting Tory in considerable numbers.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lewis Goodall: the R word is starting to be mentioned by people in the hall.
  • Byronic said:


    I'm not sure Boris is obviously more malign and disreputable than IRA-hugging, Hamas-loving Corbyn, and Corbyn has way more unpopular, far left, anti-British, Jew-hating political opinions.

    That said, it clear that Boris is Marmite. It's just that Corbyn is even more badly Marmitey. I am searching for a good culinary analogy. I have found it. If Boris is Political Marmite, then Corbyn is Political Maggot Cheese, AKA Sardinian Casu Marzu

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casu_marzu

    Corbyn is the Vegemite to Boris' marmite.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    AndyJS said:


    Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.

    Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AndyJS said:

    Lewis Goodall: the R word is starting to be mentioned by people in the hall.

    Labour need their deposit badly!
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    AndyJS said:

    "01.52 Labour source at the count confirms that it’s “looking pretty close”, though the Lib Dems seem to have “edged it”. Adds: “Still concerned about our deposit…”"

    https://labourlist.org/2019/08/brecon-radnorshire-by-election-liveblog/

    Notably poor Expex Manage from Lib Dems. If the Tories come close that will now be seen as a decent result, for them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe it's going to be closer than expected.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I think if Boris can get a convicted criminal within a few % hes not gonna be scared of an election
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    AndyJS said:

    justin124 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Zephyr said:

    If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.

    Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.

    It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.

    I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.

    You

    It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.



    Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.

    Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.

    It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
    Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.
    That's an interesting and valid insight.

    I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)

    Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.

    And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.
    But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.
    Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.
    I am surprised you say that. Many have referred to him as 'a thoroughly nasty piece of work'.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    AndyJS said:


    Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.

    Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.
    Citation required.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
    I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:


    Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.

    Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.
    Citation required.
    Quite right. He's obviously a buffoon.
  • Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
    I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
    Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Welsh Tory source: “I think the Lib Dems have done it. They have consistently more on every table.”
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Byronic said:

    AndyJS said:


    Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.

    Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.
    Citation required.
    His friendship with Darius Guppy spoke volumes.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
    I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
    At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.
  • Sky - Result due to be announced
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
    I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
    Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!
    You're pulling my leg, aren't you?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Goodall: Tories expecting to lose but not by thousands.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited August 2019

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.

    Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
    You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?

    I would find that unbelievable.
    It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
    I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
    At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.
    It's the one before Lindsay Roy won. It was an SNP gain against predictions, can't remember which seat....... yes I can, Glasgow east
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited August 2019

    I think if Boris can get a convicted criminal within a few % hes not gonna be scared of an election

    Tory spinners will probably use the line, Boris squeezed the BXP vote, rather than emphasise the candidate's criminal record. After all, he might still be the candidate in a snap general election called next month.
This discussion has been closed.