Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
The trouble with these counts is that the people who know what they are doing will be busy doing it, and those who don’t will be wafting around with time to share their half baked thoughts and outright spin with the journalists hanging about.
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
I don't think looking at that you understand what a freeport or enterprise zone entails. You are correct that it is named as "Braintree Freeport" but I don't think it has the status or advantages associated with that anymore if it ever did.
Does it encourage local young people to hang around port areas at night, hoping for gainful employment?
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]
That tweet does sound bad for the tories
Part and parcel of the by-election cycle. Tories have no chance, no maybe it looks close, no it is comfortable LD after all. All reasonably plausible scenarios have already been cycled through no doubt.
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
The trouble with these counts is that the people who know what they are doing will be busy doing it, and those who don’t will be wafting around with time to share their half baked thoughts and outright spin with the journalists hanging about.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 · 8m Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
Again. Depends what they expected.
Who do you think labour sources want to win this one, out of the two candidates who can actually win? My guess is tonight Labour are rooting for the libdems.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
We’ll all be wishing you’d done a third hour, telling all those unwanted remainers to p**s off and vote LibDem.
BTW doesn’t the Tory system allow helpers to phone from their home?
By the time I had got back from work was quicker to phone from CCHQ plus went for drinks afterwards in Westminster with some interns across parties and Epping colleagues
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
Field travels with this government on brexit. But probably not much else?
He was very critical of UC and its roll out in the last year or so and the Tories welfare policies in general. He maybe a Brexiteer but he does not approve of the way the Government has gone about welfare reform IMO. I doubt given his exposure to the harrowing experiences of constituents in Birkenhead he would ever back the Tories...
BBC Wales reporting that ex Tory Director of Strategy says "looks like a Lib Dem gain" but will be better than anticipated for the Tories. As someone who has been to many counts as a counting agent I would expect the agents who are collating figures to have a good idea of the result, if close postal votes which will be added last could decide the outcome.
I would laugh if they lost their deposit, but assume they have a bedrock support of around 8-10%.
But everyone of that 8 to 10% would want to see Boris Bounce punctured, his commons majority not increased, and, those that are remainers, the remain option triumphing.
If its hollow for Swinson to claim mighty breakthrough tomorrow thanks to such Labour votes, then it was Mega hollow for Labours triumphalism after 2017 election when they most benefited from remain votes in just the same way.
The real danger is when leaders and their followers actually believe all the votes were for them and their policy.
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:
Field travels with this government on brexit. But probably not much else?
He was very critical of UC and its roll out in the last year or so and the Tories welfare policies in general. He maybe a Brexiteer but he does not approve of the way the Government has gone about welfare reform IMO. I doubt given his exposure to the harrowing experiences of constituents in Birkenhead he would ever back the Tories...
Indeed. And what's more he knows his stuff, too. He has been excoriating about Tory welfare reforms, and has actually held the government to account, quite obviously being better informed than most at the DWP who have an Army of civil servants at their service. I am at a loss as to why some Tories hold him up as their pet ex-Labour MP. Other than that everything must be seen through a Brexit prism, of course. Although, if Boris were serious about social exclusion, Field to DWP would be a start. Amber doesn't need the cash anyways.
If you believe hard enough, a thousand pounds will turn into £30,000 within a few hours. What's not to like?
Since when did we start quoting the high-roller numbers???????
min bet's 2 quid
Make just over 50 quid is what you mean surely
From what they post, it would be sheer silliness to talk about £2 turning into £60.That's the kind of amount that it wouldn't be worth their while to bend down and pick up if they saw it lying on the pavement.
Talking of which - this looks like the last chance for Boris fas to jump in and turn a thousand into now - amazingly - £45,000. Quick, now, before it becomes obvious the Tories are going to win, and we reach crossover.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?
You should expect a call from Boris himself
I expect Boris would be hungover and having a celebratory 'morning in bed' with Carrie!
Oh the joys of lying in... oh! Has he just spilt last nights Pinot on the sheets. Oh dear. Put the new iPad down. No don’t throw - Crash! Put the laptop down, it’s what I must use to start nuclear war. No don’t throw it
Further down the ballot will Lily the Pink mop up hard left votes in error?
The people’s flag is slightly pink, it’s not as red as most folks think?
No. But “don’t blame me - I voted loony” has a stronger pull with each passing day.
If you believe hard enough, a thousand pounds will turn into £30,000 within a few hours. What's not to like?
Since when did we start quoting the high-roller numbers???????
min bet's 2 quid
Make just over 50 quid is what you mean surely
From what they post, it would be sheer silliness to talk about £2 turning into £60.That's the kind of amount that it wouldn't be worth their while to bend down and pick up if they saw it lying on the pavement.
Talking of which - this looks like the last chance for Boris fas to jump in and turn a thousand into now - amazingly - £45,000. Quick, now, before it becomes obvious the Tories are going to win, and we reach crossover.
I'm sure this 1k bet is a new thing being invented tonight - I suggest that we post as reference 100 GBP when it comes to close/heavy favourite nights such as tonight.
OK admittedly, even though Betfair Exchange is currently offering a ratio of 38, it's not possible to bet anything like a thousand pounds at that price. So maybe I should have said £10 would turn into £300.
If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?
OK admittedly, even though Betfair Exchange is currently offering a ratio of 38, it's not possible to bet anything like a thousand pounds at that price. So maybe I should have said £10 would turn into £300.
If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
That will not be the headline. Both main contenders elected a new leader last week. For one of them, the bounce is over. That will be the headline. The strapline will be the effect on Boris's majority (assuming he can keep the DUP onboard) with leading articles on what this means for Brexit and a snap election.
ETA the true measure of Corbyn's effect is that Labour will *not* be the headline. Labour right now does not matter.
If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?
No. And I cannot give you one reason why 80% of Labour voters would not switch to the Lib Dems at a General Election, if the Lib Dems look like a credible, Remainery, Unionist opposition.
Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.
I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.
I don't think looking at that you understand what a freeport or enterprise zone entails. You are correct that it is named as "Braintree Freeport" but I don't think it has the status or advantages associated with that anymore if it ever did.
OK admittedly, even though Betfair Exchange is currently offering a ratio of 38, it's not possible to bet anything like a thousand pounds at that price. So maybe I should have said £10 would turn into £300.
Ah, OK.
Yes, of course you're right. And probably this is the reason the markets are misleadingly pointing to a Lib Dem victory. Even though there's money to be made, the amount is far too small to make it worthwhile for those in the know to divert their personal assistants from more lucrative activities.
OK admittedly, even though Betfair Exchange is currently offering a ratio of 38, it's not possible to bet anything like a thousand pounds at that price. So maybe I should have said £10 would turn into £300.
Ah, OK.
Yes, of course you're right. And probably this is the reason the markets are misleadingly pointing to a Lib Dem victory. Even though there's money to be made, the amount is far too small to make it worthwhile for those in the know to divert their personal assistants from more lucrative activities.
If you wanted to back the Tories with serious money, you'd lay Lib Dems at 1.05. There's £1500 on the table as I write. Much more liquidity there.
I don't think looking at that you understand what a freeport or enterprise zone entails. You are correct that it is named as "Braintree Freeport" but I don't think it has the status or advantages associated with that anymore if it ever did.
The station's still called Freeport!
Indeed. Talking about stations with unusual names: Bat & Ball. I kid you not!
Comments
I would laugh if they lost their deposit, but assume they have a bedrock support of around 8-10%.
https://youtu.be/h6mJw50OdZ4
Surely Lib-Dems haven't screwed this up?
If you believe hard enough, a thousand pounds will turn into £30,000 within a few hours. What's not to like?
But I will have to find out in the morning. As ever, I hope for the most interesting and/or funny outcome.
min bet's 2 quid
Make just over 50 quid is what you mean surely
If its hollow for Swinson to claim mighty breakthrough tomorrow thanks to such Labour votes, then it was Mega hollow for Labours triumphalism after 2017 election when they most benefited from remain votes in just the same way.
The real danger is when leaders and their followers actually believe all the votes were for them and their policy.
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157070082557829120?s=20
I'm sticking with my prediction numbers:
LD 15,600
Con 12,800
BRX 3,800
Lab 1,900
UKIP 400
Loony 100
Other than that everything must be seen through a Brexit prism, of course.
Although, if Boris were serious about social exclusion, Field to DWP would be a start. Amber doesn't need the cash anyways.
Two things OFCOM look at - Westminster history + polls.
However Peterborough would have given weight to argument for more prominent treatment.
If only 10% in Brecon and in clear 4th place well below big three in polls then broadcasters will marginalise them.
@adrianmasters84
The crucial town of Ystradgynlais seems to have gone to the Lib Dems. 'We've lost Ystradgynlais,' says one Tory. 'That's us done.'
Talking of which - this looks like the last chance for Boris fas to jump in and turn a thousand into now - amazingly - £45,000. Quick, now, before it becomes obvious the Tories are going to win, and we reach crossover.
https://britainelects.com/2019/07/31/previews-01-aug-2019/
Conservatives: 6/1-£53, 30/1-£30, 34/1-18.
That's (6x53)+(30x30)+(34x18) = £1,830. Not £30,000. Am I missing something? Genuine question.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159853905
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
Uxbridge
Con 1/5
Lab 5/1
BXP 10/1
LD 50/1
Islington North
Lab 1/10
LD 6/1
Con 50/1
BXP 50/1
Uxbridge prices look tight and almost generous with a hundred per cent book on the main two, if you are happy to disregard the BXP.
ETA the true measure of Corbyn's effect is that Labour will *not* be the headline. Labour right now does not matter.
Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.
I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.
Moronic.
And in the time it takes to type that, it is back to 20/50. It may be people closing open positions, as there is not much money left.
I suspect it's going to be a LibDem gain, but am not tempted to bet on the heavy favourite.
LD 14,300
Con 11,800
BRX 3,500
Lab 1,750
UKIP 400
Loony 100