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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

Tonight could be very interesting for political historians.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    First!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    LD coming First! Just like me on this thread :smiley:
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    if Lib Dems dont win with 3 party support they dont deserve to win anywhere
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    Any news on turnout?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .
  • Mike's first table is what made me back the Tories and Brexit in what are now crappy odds.

    I evened up after Farage quotes but I think I'm going to be down.

    Don't think I'll bother with Sheffield if it happens
  • Day of Brecon-ing!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,498
    I’m most interested in seeing what happens to the Labour vote.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,028
    How is the betting moving?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited August 2019
    I wonder what it is with Nigel Farage and aeroplanes? It is hardly man of the people stuff! Maybe Nigel Farage should knock these environmentally unfriendly machines on the head. I doubt they add any votes to the Brexit party candidate so why bother? Farage would be better getting pissed in a pub on election day like in Peterborough in the recent by-election as that made no difference to that result either.
  • Tabman said:

    Any news on turnout?

    Brisk.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "LIVE: Brecon & Radnorshire by-election votes counted"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-politics-49103064
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    I’m most interested in seeing what happens to the Labour vote.

    Will probably not move much.

    If it collapses entirely, that would potentially be significant. If there are signs of it moving to the Liberal Democrats - which should not be happening here - then Labour are in big, big trouble.

    But I would guess if it falls significantly it will be due to abstentions.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,905
    edited August 2019
    kle4 said:

    Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .

    On today's Mori the LDs should win tonight by about 42% to 41% for the Tories but I expect it will be more through their by election machine
  • rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
  • Sophy!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
    You Kent be serious.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,369
    Nice parting gift to Boris from Theresa May! :D
  • ydoethur said:

    rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
    You Kent be serious.
    Well one of the words I associate with Farage is often turned to 'Kent' by auto-correct.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,479
    edited August 2019
    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    ydoethur said:

    rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
    You Kent be serious.
    Well one of the words I associate with Farage is often turned to 'Kent' by auto-correct.
    Canterbury?

    Countryside?

    Cannot?
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
    You Kent be serious.
    Well one of the words I associate with Farage is often turned to 'Kent' by auto-correct.
    Canterbury?

    Countryside?

    Cannot?
    What 'couldn't' sounds like when my Yorkshire accent kicks in.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,369
    edited August 2019
    If I was there I'd vote Lib-Dem to get the Con expenses fiddler out!

    God knows what the Tories were thinking making him their candidate,
  • How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
  • Not much intel from the Ridgster
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,369
    Getting closer to an October general election. :D
  • How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    In 2011 98.9% of the constituency was of white ethnic origin. I would have thought the majority of the 1.1% was Chinese rather than Indian. So I am guessing the answer is 'very few.'
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    GIN1138 said:

    Nice parting gift to Boris from Theresa May! :D

    Surely the Pro-Brexit Tory Incumbent seeking re-election cannot lose in a seat that voted for Brexit? If the Tories don't win here under a Pro-Brexit leader in Boris Johnson, then maybe the electorate is having second thoughts about Brexit...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474

    rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
    Hah! It's probably owned by one of their ordinary 'man of the people' backers, so no charge.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,369
    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,931
    OK, boys and girls. Some quick questions:

    1) POSTAL VOTES
    One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?

    2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
    Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?

    3) GOSSIP
    The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?

    4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
    Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?

    5) MODELLERS
    Has anybody done a model of the vote?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
    The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

    And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,369

    GIN1138 said:

    Nice parting gift to Boris from Theresa May! :D

    Surely the Pro-Brexit Tory Incumbent seeking re-election cannot lose in a seat that voted for Brexit? If the Tories don't win here under a Pro-Brexit leader in Boris Johnson, then maybe the electorate is having second thoughts about Brexit...
    Nice try but as the Con candidate has a criminal conviction for cheating his expenses I'm not sure its going to fly... ;)
  • rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
    Hah! It's probably owned by one of their ordinary 'man of the people' backers, so no charge.
    Still has to be declared, otherwise you could bypass the spending limits with in kind donations.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Lewis Goodall
    @lewis_goodall
    ·
    11m
    Talking to voters here, it's clear the Lib Dems have swarmed this constituency with activists. Some have told me they've been called upon half a dozen times today alone by the party. Several have used the same phrase to me: "they've thrown the kitchen sink at it."
  • GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474

    rpjs said:

    What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

    I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

    I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
    Hah! It's probably owned by one of their ordinary 'man of the people' backers, so no charge.
    Still has to be declared, otherwise you could bypass the spending limits with in kind donations.
    Fair point. Good job for the LDs that volunteers' time is not valued as a donation in kind.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
    Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,120
    GIN1138 said:

    If I was there I'd vote Lib-Dem to get the Con expenses fiddler out!

    God knows what the Tories were thinking making him their candidate,

    May turn out to be a shrewd move. If he wins then it's 'Triumph for Boris'. Lose and it's 'not Boris's fault - blame the silly old local party for choosing a crook'.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Well I’m not going to offer to eat my hat but I am amazed at some of the predictions so far.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 680
    It's not possible. Parliament doesn't allow either/or votes.

    He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474
    Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?

    I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    dixiedean said:

    My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
    Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

    Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    Problem is he might think he would win seeking a new mandate but would be risk it so soon when it would mean, if he loses, that he is the shortest serving PM? A man as vain as Boris?
  • US President Donald Trump has announced fresh tariffs of 10% on another $300bn of Chinese products from 1 September.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49199559
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,101
    ydoethur said:

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
    The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

    And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
    This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015
    Purely on expectations management the Tories can only really surprise on the upside, so well done them I guess?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474
    theProle said:

    It's not possible. Parliament doesn't allow either/or votes.

    He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).
    Sensible post until someone tacked on some nonsense in brackets at the end. :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474
    kle4 said:

    Purely on expectations management the Tories can only really surprise on the upside, so well done them I guess?

    I have not been paying attention... have the Tories put out some dampener messages?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,648
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .

    On today's Mori the LDs should win tonight by about 42% to 41% for the Tories but I expect it will be more through their by election machine
    Sound plausible - win by 1500 or so? The Tories will say "better than expected", the LibDems will say "triumph" and labour will say "tactical voting". As a Labour voter I'd be very tempted because of the strategic position (and conversely I wouldn't read anything into the expected Labour collapse - if I'd be tempted, any Labour voter would be).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,498

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .

    On today's Mori the LDs should win tonight by about 42% to 41% for the Tories but I expect it will be more through their by election machine
    Sound plausible - win by 1500 or so? The Tories will say "better than expected", the LibDems will say "triumph" and labour will say "tactical voting". As a Labour voter I'd be very tempted because of the strategic position (and conversely I wouldn't read anything into the expected Labour collapse - if I'd be tempted, any Labour voter would be).
    But Labour HQ says that the Tory enablers are worse than the Tories themselves?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    ydoethur said:

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
    The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

    And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
    This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.
    Even allowing for that, she was a foolish choice. Roger Williams or Kirsty Williams should have been begged to stand.

    This is a very strange by-election and I think it will cause massive confusion in the media narrative - only ITV seems to have grasped the complexity of it. But quite simply, it's obvious that both the parties in contention have, for whatever reason, chosen unsuitable candidates who would certainly have lost had they not been facing each other.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
    Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

    Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
    Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
    I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474
    edited August 2019

    ydoethur said:

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
    The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

    And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
    This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.
    Having totally crap candidates doesn't seem to have held back the Tories or Labour much over the past 50 years or more.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    My prediction from yesterday:

    LD 45%
    Con 37%
    BRX 11%
    Lab 5.5%
    UKIP 1.2%
    Loony 0.3%

    Turnout 62%

    In terms of votes, the result would be something like this:

    LD 15,600
    Con 12,800
    BRX 3,800
    Lab 1,900
    UKIP 400
    Loony 100
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,130
    edited August 2019
    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
    The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

    They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

    They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

    Corbyn is your albatross
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
    Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

    Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
    Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
    I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
    Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

    Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

    So no, they will not be thinking like that.

    Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    kle4 said:

    Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .

    Beginning of the end for party leading in the polls ?

    Lol.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
    The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

    And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
    This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.
    Even allowing for that, she was a foolish choice. Roger Williams or Kirsty Williams should have been begged to stand.

    This is a very strange by-election and I think it will cause massive confusion in the media narrative - only ITV seems to have grasped the complexity of it. But quite simply, it's obvious that both the parties in contention have, for whatever reason, chosen unsuitable candidates who would certainly have lost had they not been facing each other.
    Sounds like the 2016 POTUS election!
  • ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
    Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

    Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
    Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
    I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
    Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

    Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

    So no, they will not be thinking like that.

    Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
    If the labour vote holds up - should be a more interesting night.
  • My
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
    Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

    Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.

    ydoethur said:

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
    The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

    And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
    This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.
    My sense is that the talent pool is deepening quite quickly with the huge influx of members, but the talent hasn’t been shifted to the right places yet.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,092
    As first posts go, duckeggblue's field report for is about as much as any PBer could hope for. Prediction: LD gain, maj 1700 votes. Turnout 57%.

    THIS IS NOT A TIP.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,931

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
    The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

    They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

    They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

    Corbyn is your albatross
    Great spin there, Big G...:)
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,814



    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    Very difficult to see why Plaid Cymru would do this in a GE.

    In the very next door constituency, Plaid Cymru & the LibDems will be fighting a ferocious battle against each other in Ceredigion.
  • Oops, messed up block quotes already!
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    Some hints the turnout could be 40-50%
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Powys council tell me turnout is expected to be announced between 0100 - 0130
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,931

    US President Donald Trump has announced fresh tariffs of 10% on another $300bn of Chinese products from 1 September.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49199559

    I really don't like this timeline... :(
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
    The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

    They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

    They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

    Corbyn is your albatross

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
    The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

    They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

    They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

    Corbyn is your albatross
    You think Cooper or Starmer or Benn would get a 15 % swing to come through from third and take this seat? That's a pretty high assessment of their capabilities.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    16m
    Another Conservative who's been phone canvassing feels the vote for Chris Davies is holding up. They think they may have picked up a few new voters who like Boris Johnson. But still think Lib Dems will narrowly win.
  • viewcode said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
    The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

    They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

    They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

    Corbyn is your albatross
    Great spin there, Big G...:)
    Why spin. Realistic observation surely
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited August 2019
    marke09 said:

    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    Some hints the turnout could be 40-50%

    Lower than I was expecting.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356

    Oops, messed up block quotes already!

    A seminal moment in the life of any PB poster.

    Apart from Mr Dancer, who refuses to use them and just confuses the hell out of us all all the time instead of some of the time as a result.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    15m
    A Lib Dem victory by 2,500 votes they reckon.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?

    I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.

    The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,474
    edited August 2019

    Oops, messed up block quotes already!

    It's a rite of passage - you're a proper PB poster now!

    Edit: Although you probably need to commit the double-blockquote post as per Dixie below before you have really got your posting wings.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    19m
    Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    21m
    A prediction from a Labour source: Lib Dems win, Cons 2nd, Brexit 3rd, Labour 4th. But keeping their deposit.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,648



    But Labour HQ says that the Tory enablers are worse than the Tories themselves?

    Not in my hearing - citation needed. Clearly the LibDems are not reliable since they are as ever open to siding with either of the others. But they're certainly better than the Tories.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    marke09 said:

    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    19m
    Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.

    Interesting. But would it still happen if the LDs win relatively narrowly?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    The Liberal Democrats are hopeful but don't believe they're in landslide territory. They report a sense that Boris Johnson taking over as Prime Minister has had an impact.
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    33m
    The Lib Dems say they've been getting a positive response from 'old supporters and new allies' but one Lib Dem tells me 'the percentages at the end of this could well resemble the referendum tally, hopefully in our favour.'
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    31m
    Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems.
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    30m
    Conservative after Conservative tell me it'll be close. Possibly even recount territory. 'Our vote is strong,' said one 'and going out to vote for Chris [Davies]'
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    26m
    One Conservative: 'the whole thing will depend on Labour switchers. If the Brexit party take them we're in with a shout. If Libs have them then they've won by a mile.'
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,369
    edited August 2019
    marke09 said:

    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    21m
    A prediction from a Labour source: Lib Dems win, Cons 2nd, Brexit 3rd, Labour 4th. But keeping their deposit.

    Not losing their deposit will be considered a good night for Labour? :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,356
    marke09 said:

    Adrian Masters
    @adrianmasters84
    ·
    15m
    A Lib Dem victory by 2,500 votes they reckon.

    2,500 votes on a 40% turnout would hardly be a narrow win. In fact, it would be a thumping win.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,507

    ydoethur said:

    How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

    Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?
    I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.
    The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

    And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
    This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.
    Having totally crap candidates doesn't seem to have held back the Tories or Labour much over the past 50 years or more.
    Quite obviously so!

    Most LD candidates come from local government, not glamorous but probably better preparation than being a kiss-arse SPAD.
  • Oops, messed up block quotes already!

    What's your view on pineapples on pizza?

    1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?

    or

    2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?
  • If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?

    And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 79,015

    kle4 said:

    Purely on expectations management the Tories can only really surprise on the upside, so well done them I guess?

    I have not been paying attention... have the Tories put out some dampener messages?
    Hard to say perhaps, although selecting a crook and doing a (deliberately?) poor job of countering the LD's' optimism about the outcome may bave been a subtle dampener on their part.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,287
    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
    The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

    They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

    They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

    Corbyn is your albatross

    ydoethur said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

    Could they drop into the hundreds?

    As many as that !!!!
    Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,
    The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

    They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

    They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

    However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

    And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

    Corbyn is your albatross
    You think Cooper or Starmer or Benn would get a 15 % swing to come through from third and take this seat? That's a pretty high assessment of their capabilities.
    Or a realistic assessment of how poor the PM is. Just as he does well because he is up against Corbyn, a sensible Labour leader would do well against Johnson.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Oops, messed up block quotes already!

    What's your view on pineapples on pizza?

    1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?

    or

    2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?
    Think carefully before you answer now!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 23,517
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
    Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

    Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.
    Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
    I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
    Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

    Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

    So no, they will not be thinking like that.

    Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
    I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour.
    Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
  • Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?

    I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.

    The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.
    I think you mean "bet £100 to win £2" Mr High Roller!
This discussion has been closed.