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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result
Tonight could be very interesting for political historians.
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I evened up after Farage quotes but I think I'm going to be down.
Don't think I'll bother with Sheffield if it happens
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-politics-49103064
If it collapses entirely, that would potentially be significant. If there are signs of it moving to the Liberal Democrats - which should not be happening here - then Labour are in big, big trouble.
But I would guess if it falls significantly it will be due to abstentions.
I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.
Countryside?
Cannot?
God knows what the Tories were thinking making him their candidate,
Could they drop into the hundreds?
1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?
And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.
@lewis_goodall
·
11m
Talking to voters here, it's clear the Lib Dems have swarmed this constituency with activists. Some have told me they've been called upon half a dozen times today alone by the party. Several have used the same phrase to me: "they've thrown the kitchen sink at it."
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).
I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49199559
This is a very strange by-election and I think it will cause massive confusion in the media narrative - only ITV seems to have grasped the complexity of it. But quite simply, it's obvious that both the parties in contention have, for whatever reason, chosen unsuitable candidates who would certainly have lost had they not been facing each other.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
LD 45%
Con 37%
BRX 11%
Lab 5.5%
UKIP 1.2%
Loony 0.3%
Turnout 62%
In terms of votes, the result would be something like this:
LD 15,600
Con 12,800
BRX 3,800
Lab 1,900
UKIP 400
Loony 100
They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote
They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.
However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government
And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE
Corbyn is your albatross
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
Lol.
THIS IS NOT A TIP.
In the very next door constituency, Plaid Cymru & the LibDems will be fighting a ferocious battle against each other in Ceredigion.
@adrianmasters84
Some hints the turnout could be 40-50%
@adrianmasters84
·
16m
Another Conservative who's been phone canvassing feels the vote for Chris Davies is holding up. They think they may have picked up a few new voters who like Boris Johnson. But still think Lib Dems will narrowly win.
Apart from Mr Dancer, who refuses to use them and just confuses the hell out of us all all the time instead of some of the time as a result.
@adrianmasters84
·
15m
A Lib Dem victory by 2,500 votes they reckon.
Edit: Although you probably need to commit the double-blockquote post as per Dixie below before you have really got your posting wings.
@adrianmasters84
·
19m
Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.
@adrianmasters84
·
21m
A prediction from a Labour source: Lib Dems win, Cons 2nd, Brexit 3rd, Labour 4th. But keeping their deposit.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
33m
The Lib Dems say they've been getting a positive response from 'old supporters and new allies' but one Lib Dem tells me 'the percentages at the end of this could well resemble the referendum tally, hopefully in our favour.'
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
31m
Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
30m
Conservative after Conservative tell me it'll be close. Possibly even recount territory. 'Our vote is strong,' said one 'and going out to vote for Chris [Davies]'
@adrianmasters84
·
26m
One Conservative: 'the whole thing will depend on Labour switchers. If the Brexit party take them we're in with a shout. If Libs have them then they've won by a mile.'
Most LD candidates come from local government, not glamorous but probably better preparation than being a kiss-arse SPAD.
1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?
or
2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?
And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.
Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...