Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!
You're pulling my leg, aren't you?
I've been to a count with a smartphone - you just don't do it; ethics innit
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
Going from memory it wasn't far from that. OGH or others could give details.
Not saying it's happened but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results? IIRC SNP won what was meant to be a SLAB hold but I may be wrong.
Not saying that has happened tonight but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
That was the Dunfermline and West Fife by-election in 2006. (Seems like yesterday). Labour was still expected to win by the betting markets until the official announcement was made. The LDs won it by 1,800.
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.
It's the one before Lindsay Roy won. It was an SNP gain against predictions, can't remember which seat....... yes I can, Glasgow east
That's what I thought but I can't find any evidence of the prices: it's a terrible shame that early PB comments are all gone (for ever, @rcs1000?)
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.
I think you are remembering Dunfermline West which Willie Rennie won gaining from Labour. The LDs were something like 8/1 when the returning officer was on stage...
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!
You're pulling my leg, aren't you?
I've been to a count with a smartphone - you just don't do it; ethics innit
Of course no one's suggesting that people in the hall are moving the market directly by betting themselves!
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
"The Political Punter How to make money betting on politics, by Mike Smithson", p102 Case study – Dunfermline by-election, February 2006 Labour had gone into the contest as very strong favourite and had retained that status almost up to the end. This is how the final 25 minutes looked to gamblers. It serves as a salutary warning..
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!
You're pulling my leg, aren't you?
I've been to a count with a smartphone - you just don't do it; ethics innit
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.
Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.
Citation required.
His friendship with Darius Guppy spoke volumes.
No, it didn't. It spoke of friendship and some upper-upper-middle class entitlement and idiocy.
I am quite prepared to critique Boris, or even condemn him. But these endless character assassinations, of Boris. from the Left, and from Remainerdom, smack of hysteria and desperation.
Corbyn is the one who invited the IRA to the Commons weeks after the Brighton Bomb. Corbyn is the one who elevates Stalinists like McDonnell and Milne to power. Corbyn is the one who cavorts with anti-Semites and Islamists and seems to revel in the fact. Corbyn is the one who overlaps with Chavezy economics and Holocaust deniers.
Both politicians are contentious. Only Corbyn is actively repulsive to most Britons. And for a reason.
Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?
I would find that unbelievable.
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.
"The Political Punter How to make money betting on politics, by Mike Smithson", p102 Case study – Dunfermline by-election, February 2006 Labour had gone into the contest as very strong favourite and had retained that status almost up to the end. This is how the final 25 minutes looked to gamblers. It serves as a salutary warning..
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.
I was able to pile £200-something on Lab Hold Tooting at the last election at something like 1.69 half an hour after the polls closed, which was ridiculous, given how obvious it was even much earlier in the day that we hadn't even come close.
I suspect the LD margin of victory in B&R will be a bit less than the BXP vote, which will open up all manner of cans of worms...
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.
I was able to pile £200-something on Lab Hold Tooting at the last election at something like 1.69 half an hour after the polls closed, which was ridiculous, given how obvious it was even much earlier in the day that we hadn't even come close.
I suspect the LD margin of victory in B&R will be a bit less than the BXP vote, which will open up all manner of cans of worms...
If Tory + BRX > 50%, Brexit supporters will spin it as a victory.
It is a paradox of political betting that the best-informed punters are not active in the market because they are at the count. This may be why general election and referendum night betting has been so profitable for anyone who can extrapolate from early results.
I was able to pile £200-something on Lab Hold Tooting at the last election at something like 1.69 half an hour after the polls closed, which was ridiculous, given how obvious it was even much earlier in the day that we hadn't even come close.
I suspect the LD margin of victory in B&R will be a bit less than the BXP vote, which will open up all manner of cans of worms...
If Tory + BRX > 50%, Brexit supporters will spin it as a victory.
If Tory + BRX = 0 votes they would find some way of doing that.
She's one of those women who seems sort of attractive at first but becomes quite irritating within a few minutes and never regains her earlier appeal, isn't she?
My prediction wasn't far off in the end: I had 45% / 37% / 11% / 5.5%.
You are seriously good at this shit. Kudos.
Is this the most boring result possible? LDs win, nut not by as much as expected. Tories lose, but not by as much as expected. Labour lose badly, but hold their deposit.
A massive massive YAWN. And a genuine Goodnight to all.
Per RodCrosby model which used to be debated on here at lot many years ago - Small Lab to Con swing would imply very positive for Con at subsequent GE.
Comments
Not saying it's happened but it wouldn't be unprecedented.
This one?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Dunfermline_and_West_Fife_by-election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Dunfermline_and_West_Fife_by-election
Case study – Dunfermline by-election, February 2006
Labour had gone into the contest as very strong favourite and had retained that status almost up to the end. This is how the final 25 minutes looked to gamblers. It serves as a salutary warning..
12:08am News24–LibDemslooklikethey’vewonaccordingto Curtice.
12:08am FromBBC–‘LibDemsmayhavedoneit’
12:09am MoneyavailableonLibDemsbetfairat2.0–£100ifyouwant it!
12:10am Gonenow.
12:10am SkyNews–‘villagevote’maywinitforLabour.VERYclose.
12:15am LibDemsnarrowfavouriteonBetfair.
12:23am LabourfavouritesagainonBetfair
12:24am Exactlymatchedon1.8now…
12:27am LookslikeLabour.
12:28am BetfairindicatingaLabourhold.I’mafraid
12:29am There’smoneytobehadonBetfairat1.2ifLabourhavewon
12:30am Reallypoorshowfromthenewschannelshere
12:32am LDwon
I am quite prepared to critique Boris, or even condemn him. But these endless character assassinations, of Boris. from the Left, and from Remainerdom, smack of hysteria and desperation.
Corbyn is the one who invited the IRA to the Commons weeks after the Brighton Bomb. Corbyn is the one who elevates Stalinists like McDonnell and Milne to power. Corbyn is the one who cavorts with anti-Semites and Islamists and seems to revel in the fact. Corbyn is the one who overlaps with Chavezy economics and Holocaust deniers.
Both politicians are contentious. Only Corbyn is actively repulsive to most Britons. And for a reason.
Goodnight.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/02/10/lib-dems-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-the-betting/
https://web.archive.org/web/20061122193527/http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/02/10/lib-dems-and-labour-neck-and-neck-in-the-betting/
How many of those posters are still on the site today? Andrea is. And Harry Hayfield.
I was able to pile £200-something on Lab Hold Tooting at the last election at something like 1.69 half an hour after the polls closed, which was ridiculous, given how obvious it was even much earlier in the day that we hadn't even come close.
I suspect the LD margin of victory in B&R will be a bit less than the BXP vote, which will open up all manner of cans of worms...
Night all
Labour vote collapsed
Is this the most boring result possible? LDs win, nut not by as much as expected. Tories lose, but not by as much as expected. Labour lose badly, but hold their deposit.
A massive massive YAWN. And a genuine Goodnight to all.
Good morning ....
(UK voted 51.89% to Leave).