politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result
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My problem? That doesn’t even come in the top ten of my problems.Byronic said:
No. And I cannot give you one reason why 80% of Labour voters would not switch to the Lib Dems at a General Election, if the Lib Dems look like a credible, Remainery, Unionist opposition.Zephyr said:
Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?Byronic said:If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.
I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.0 -
For the first time in my life I do genuinely believe that we could see the complete disappearance of one of the major two parties.kle4 said:
So they said last time. Second time might be right, but it'll need to be tested to destruction to find out.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
It happened to Labour in Scotland after the first indyref (and there are no signs of them returning five years later), I see no logical reason why it cannot happen to Labour, nationwide, after the first Brexitref,
Massively important constitutional plebiscites have a habit, it seems, of transforming national political landscapes. A bit like wars.0 -
Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight0
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I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
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Sorry dude. My bad! It's late and I think I mistook you for a dimwitted lefty.Zephyr said:
My problem? That doesn’t even come in the top ten of my problems.Byronic said:
No. And I cannot give you one reason why 80% of Labour voters would not switch to the Lib Dems at a General Election, if the Lib Dems look like a credible, Remainery, Unionist opposition.Zephyr said:
Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?Byronic said:If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.
I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.
My ire is aimed at all Corbynites, and Labourites.0 -
I'm really gutted about the 59.7% turnout. I had 7 to 1 with Ladbrokes that it would be 60% or more0
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This seems to have had nowhere near the volume Peterborough had? Is that a function of its remoteness from folk with cash, or the sheer amount of other stuff going on?DecrepitJohnL said:B&R Conservatives now 6 (30 to lay) on Betfair so someone thinks they know something.
And in the time it takes to type that, it is back to 20/50. It may be people closing open positions, as there is not much money left.
Ps, not expecting an answer from you. Just musing.0 -
unlucky MikeMikeSmithson said:I'm really gutted about the 59.7% turn up. I had 7 to 1 with Ladbrokes that it would be 60 or more
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I see that tory 6 back on my screen. I'm going to cash out if it makes it to the blue part0
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You and me both. I recall, though, the AV referendum when I missed out on a turnout payday by 0.02 percent, and would've won had spoiled ballots counted!MikeSmithson said:I'm really gutted about the 59.7% turn up. I had 7 to 1 with Ladbrokes that it would be 60 or more
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You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.SouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.
But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
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Lewis Goodall: LDs increasingly confident.0
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Fuck it I've logged out-
Here's my crappy book-
Con +163
LD -28
Brexit +8
Other -1020 -
Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.0
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Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
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There is (as SirNorfolkPassmore notes) more liquidity on the LibDems (as there invariably is on the favourite). Betfair, unusually, has the market principals in the wrong order.dixiedean said:
This seems to have had nowhere near the volume Peterborough had? Is that a function of its remoteness from folk with cash, or the sheer amount of other stuff going on?DecrepitJohnL said:B&R Conservatives now 6 (30 to lay) on Betfair so someone thinks they know something.
And in the time it takes to type that, it is back to 20/50. It may be people closing open positions, as there is not much money left.
Ps, not expecting an answer from you. Just musing.
As for other stuff going on, there are two major racing festivals: Glorious Goodwood, and Galway in Ireland. And 3/4 of pb posts were on the test match rather than politics.0 -
Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.Byronic said:
You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.SouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.
But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
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But it is nothing like the disaster for Labour that Copeland was in late February 2017! The electoral dynamics of the seat in recent years always made a squeeze highly likely . Remember Richmond December 2016.Byronic said:
You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.SouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.
But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.0 -
The polls are clearly showing Labour voters willing to vote LD, they are not showing LD voters willing to vote for Corbyn LabourChris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
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The Tories will be relying on Dominic Grieve for their majority after this result, someone who described a No Deal Brexit as "national suicide".Chris said:
Surely not!AndyJS said:Lewis Goodall: LDs increasingly confident.
Come on, Boris Believers, surely you have the sheer willpower to save the Tories?0 -
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
Yes hopefully the LD will win!AndyJS said:Lewis Goodall: LDs increasingly confident.
I noticed Ed Davey on sky and my opinion that Swinson was the best candidate for leader was validated. I think Davey needs to relax when he is on TV as he looks uncomfortable. I dont dislike him but rather like the facial ticks of David Liddington, you notice the unease of Davey. Swinson on the otherhand comes across well to me, she seems normal, which is good for a third party leader.0 -
Let's just hope we get a chance to see!HYUFD said:
The polls are clearly showing Labour voters willing to vote LD, they are not showing LD voters willing to vote for Corbyn LabourChris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
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Thornberry could lose her seat to the LDs on the latest polls in an autumn general electionByronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)Byronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returnsjustin124 said:
Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.AndyJS said:Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.
A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?0 -
More tea vicar? A result will be along soon.Byronic said:
Sorry dude. My bad! It's late and I think I mistook you for a dimwitted lefty.Zephyr said:
My problem? That doesn’t even come in the top ten of my problems.Byronic said:
No. And I cannot give you one reason why 80% of Labour voters would not switch to the Lib Dems at a General Election, if the Lib Dems look like a credible, Remainery, Unionist opposition.Zephyr said:
Can you give us one reason for a labour remain voter not to vote libdem in this particular election?Byronic said:If Labour lose their deposit that will, rightly, be the headline tomorrow. LABOUR LOSE DEPOSIT IN WALES
Corbyn is really really REALLY close to destroying Labour, and allowing the Lib Dems to become the Opposition Party. How can an apparently sane, educated person like NPXMP not see this?!?!
Heck, even I might vote for them, given the shambles in the Tory party.
I could never, ever vote for Corbyn. That is your problem. Get RID of this repulsive Marxist Jew-hater. NOW.
My ire is aimed at all Corbynites, and Labourites.
Maybe not all lefties are dimwitted. The longer this goes on, Corbyn trashing the Corbyn brand, maybe less likely a corbynista follows him. So for southam I say chill dude, for every darkest hour there is always a rising sun.
But for you Byron, isn’t this the moment Tory’s (like Hugo Young) signed up to vote Corbyn in for in the first place, shouldn’t you be enjoying it?0 -
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:
Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.Byronic said:
You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.SouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.
But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.0 -
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157080345080205312
Girl: Bloke! Get some stuff from the shop!
Bloke: Whaddya want?
Girl: Something vaguely good. Fruit. Nuts. Stuff like that.
Bloke: Jaffa Cakes & vodka?
Girl: Marry me.1 -
The polls are not implying the 25% swing needed for the LibDems to win Islington South!HYUFD said:
Thornberry could lose her seat to the LDs on the latest polls in an autumn general electionByronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
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Ms Brisk fading (lightweight)0
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Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.Chris said:
Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)Byronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.Byronic said:
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:
Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.Byronic said:
You need to get inside the head of someone like Nick Palmer. Because it is people like him who sustain Corbyn in power. It ain't the kidz.SouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
Palmer is clearly educated, not mad, intelligent, and well meaning. He sees something in Corbyn which escapes 80% of the population. Fair enough. Palmer wants a truly socialist alternative.
But how can Palmer NOT see that Corbyn is dangerously, wildly unpopular, to the extent that his (alleged) anti Semitism and (accepted) crypto-Chavezism is tarnishing the Labour brand, perhaps forever? More obviously, how can he not see the incredibly bad polling and incredibly bad election results, from the Euros to this by election?
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.0 -
Just as many will probably conclude the opposite.dyedwoolie said:
Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returnsjustin124 said:
Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.AndyJS said:Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.
A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?0 -
I'm not sure I can be bothered to stay up any later.
Night all0 -
Postal votes were the deciding factor in Eastleigh, Peterborough and Heywood & Middleton IIRC. UKIP won most votes on the day in Eastleigh and H&M, and the Brexit Party in Peterborough.HYUFD said:0 -
So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?Byronic said:
Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.Chris said:
Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)Byronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
His court case starts 6th September. Unlikely, I imagine, that it will be concluded before Brexit Day.justin124 said:
Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.AndyJS said:Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.
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~23%Chris said:
So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?Byronic said:
Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.Chris said:
Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)Byronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?0
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Surely no-one is that stupid. The party logos on the ballot paper ought to be a good enough guide.DecrepitJohnL said:How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?
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Always said we shouldn't let the plebs vote.DecrepitJohnL said:How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?
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Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.0
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Postal votes gave the LDs victory in Eastleigh even though they were behind in poling stations on the day, and the same thing happened for Labour in Peterborough and in Heywood & Middleton AFAIK.justin124 said:0 -
4 surely?dyedwoolie said:
Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returnsjustin124 said:
Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.AndyJS said:Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.
A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?
1 as baseline apparently. Elphicke surely makes 3 ... 1 less for opposition and 1 more for government as he won't abstain. O'Mara then makes 4.0 -
That's an interesting and valid insight.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.Byronic said:
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:
Nick’s like many members - he doesn’t need a Labour government and has no reason to worry about a Tory one. Supporting Corbyn makes him feel good, especially after the compromises and catastrophes of the Blair/Brown years. I think a lot of Labour members see themselves in Corbyn - quiet, unassuming, selfless, concerned. They ignore all the other stuff. They’ve convinced themselves it’s not true.Byronic said:
YouSouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)
Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.
And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.0 -
Not letting them stand is a more direct solutionFrancisUrquhart said:
Always said we shouldn't let the plebs vote.DecrepitJohnL said:How many voters put their X in the wrong box because the Labour and Conservative candidates are both called Davies?
0 -
Apologies ! I misread your earlier post - I missed the 'on the day ' reference.AndyJS said:
Postal votes gave the LDs victory in Eastleigh even though they were behind in poling stations on the day, and the same thing happened for Labour in Peterborough and in Heywood & Middleton AFAIK.justin124 said:0 -
But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.Byronic said:
That's an interesting and valid insight.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.Byronic said:
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:Byronic said:
YouSouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)
Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.
And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.0 -
Sky news has pics of them tidying up the rubber bands - can't be too long now surely0
-
Aye.Philip_Thompson said:
4 surely?dyedwoolie said:
Three with O'Mara looking like quitting as soon as the house returnsjustin124 said:
Two in reality - because Elphick as an Independent will still be voting with the Tories.AndyJS said:Just one Tory needed to jump ship after this result for the government to lose its majority. If you want to stop a No Deal Brexit at all costs, now's the time to do it.
A thought - a low BXP score (under 10) that would have seen the Tories home might destroy them? Brexiteers see the folly of split voting?
1 as baseline apparently. Elphicke surely makes 3 ... 1 less for opposition and 1 more for government as he won't abstain. O'Mara then makes 4.
How different it all would have been if Change had run in the locals and the LDs hadn't got that boost by default. For all the misery of the post coalition, the Lib Dems have had a very lucky 2019 so far.0 -
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results? IIRC SNP won what was meant to be a SLAB hold but I may be wrong.Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Not saying that has happened tonight but it wouldn't be unprecedented.0 -
Mike's book had an example of this - it's probably happened a few timesPhilip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results? IIRC SNP won what was meant to be a SLAB hold but I may be wrong.Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
Not saying that has happened tonight but it wouldn't be unprecedented.0 -
0
-
Sure it's not 11%? Or 100%?Byronic said:
~23%Chris said:
So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?Byronic said:
Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.Chris said:
Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)Byronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.0 -
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.justin124 said:
But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.Byronic said:
That's an interesting and valid insight.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.Byronic said:
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:Byronic said:
YouSouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)
Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.
And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.0 -
I'd class 20k new coppers to hassle the black kids off our streets as a malign policy.AndyJS said:
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.justin124 said:
But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.Byronic said:
That's an interesting and valid insight.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.Byronic said:
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:Byronic said:
YouSouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)
Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.
And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.0 -
What’s the realistic threshold for a recount?0
-
I'm not sure Boris is obviously more malign and disreputable than IRA-hugging, Hamas-loving Corbyn, and Corbyn has way more unpopular, far left, anti-British, Jew-hating political opinions.justin124 said:
But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.Byronic said:
That's an interesting and valid insight.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is thet the gig.Byronic said:
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:Byronic said:
YouSouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)
Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.
And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.
That said, it clear that Boris is Marmite. It's just that Corbyn is even more badly Marmitey. I am searching for a good culinary analogy. I have found it. If Boris is Political Marmite, then Corbyn is Political Maggot Cheese, AKA Sardinian Casu Marzu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casu_marzu0 -
"19 minutes ago
Jane Dodds, the Lib Dem candidate, has not yet arrived at the count."
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/voters-head-to-the-polls-for-brecon-and-radnorshire-byelection-live-a4202956.html0 -
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
800 votes in a smallish seat like this.SouthamObserver said:What’s the realistic threshold for a recount?
0 -
~23%Chris said:
Sure it's not 11%? Or 100%?Byronic said:
~23%Chris said:
So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?Byronic said:
Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.Chris said:
Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)Byronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
YAWN.0 -
"01.21 Not one Labour MP has tweeted about this by-election since the polls have closed. Nor have many activists as far as I’ve seen. But who can blame them? The picture is bleak."AndyJS said:Live blog from LabourList.
https://labourlist.org/2019/08/brecon-radnorshire-by-election-liveblog/
Jezza gone by the morning???0 -
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.
Going from memory it wasn't far from that. OGH or others could give details.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.
Not saying it's happened but it wouldn't be unprecedented.0 -
"01.52 Labour source at the count confirms that it’s “looking pretty close”, though the Lib Dems seem to have “edged it”. Adds: “Still concerned about our deposit…”"
https://labourlist.org/2019/08/brecon-radnorshire-by-election-liveblog/0 -
Have some compassion on the people who are taking the trouble to try to make sense of this stuff!Byronic said:
~23%Chris said:
Sure it's not 11%? Or 100%?Byronic said:
~23%Chris said:
So what's the core Labour vote, according to you? 23% a few minutes ago, or 50% now? Or should we wait for you to sober up before asking?Byronic said:
Yes, I know what tactical voting is. I also know what Tribal Voting is. On top of that, I know that - by definition - 50% of the country has an IQ lower than 100 and are functionally incapable of understanding tactical voting (or indeed voting, or the concept of "a salad") so they will just go ahead and vote Labour, as they have done since they had their first cheeky Nandos age 2.Chris said:
Do you even know what I mean by "tactical voting"? (Hint: Google Is Your Friend!)Byronic said:
But it won't. All the polls show that ~23% of people will vote for Corbyn & Labour come what may. At least at the moment.Chris said:
Does it occur to you, even for a moment, that the more willing supporters of the opposite parties are to vote tactically against the Tories, the worse things will be for Boris Johnson and his crazy crew if he is mad enough to go for an early election?HYUFD said:Sky News saying that despite holding this seat for 40 years until 1979 and getting 17% even in 2017, Labour may have lost its deposit in Brecon tonight
That is easily enough to fatally split the Remainer vote.
Meanwhile, the anti-Semite Corbyn has lost his campaigning magic, and is poison to voters.
if Boris pounces now, he will win well. It must be tempting. Wait a year or two, and he could be facing Thornberry, and he loses VERY badly.
YAWN.0 -
Everyone in Islington is wondering: where's this strange place where people still seem to be voting Tory in considerable numbers.0
-
Lewis Goodall: the R word is starting to be mentioned by people in the hall.0
-
Corbyn is the Vegemite to Boris' marmite.Byronic said:
I'm not sure Boris is obviously more malign and disreputable than IRA-hugging, Hamas-loving Corbyn, and Corbyn has way more unpopular, far left, anti-British, Jew-hating political opinions.
That said, it clear that Boris is Marmite. It's just that Corbyn is even more badly Marmitey. I am searching for a good culinary analogy. I have found it. If Boris is Political Marmite, then Corbyn is Political Maggot Cheese, AKA Sardinian Casu Marzu
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casu_marzu0 -
Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.AndyJS said:
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.0 -
Labour need their deposit badly!AndyJS said:Lewis Goodall: the R word is starting to be mentioned by people in the hall.
0 -
Notably poor Expex Manage from Lib Dems. If the Tories come close that will now be seen as a decent result, for them.AndyJS said:"01.52 Labour source at the count confirms that it’s “looking pretty close”, though the Lib Dems seem to have “edged it”. Adds: “Still concerned about our deposit…”"
https://labourlist.org/2019/08/brecon-radnorshire-by-election-liveblog/0 -
Maybe it's going to be closer than expected.0
-
I think if Boris can get a convicted criminal within a few % hes not gonna be scared of an election0
-
I am surprised you say that. Many have referred to him as 'a thoroughly nasty piece of work'.AndyJS said:
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.justin124 said:
But Boris is also a much more malign and disreputable human being. Voters can see that.Byronic said:
That's an interesting and valid insight.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris is the Tory Corbyn: a lazy, untidy and shambolic race-baiter with an ambiguous position on Brexit, fandom of a foreign leader, leading a split party. Since Boris was elected only last week, perhaps the key to understanding Labour is to understand how Boris got the gig.Byronic said:
Exactly right. It is religious. It is self-regarding piety for the comfortably pious.SouthamObserver said:Byronic said:
YouSouthamObserver said:
I have pitched an article to Mike and TSE on this very subject - why Jeremy Corbyn is going nowhere. Hopefully, it will get published on here.Byronic said:
It is indescribably stupid that Corbyn is still there. The entire PLP should resign. The alternative is oblivion.SouthamObserver said:
Corbyn’s not going anywhere whatever happens.Zephyr said:
If true it’s a shame libdems aren’t smart enough to keep quiet about that bit and keep Corbyn in job for as long as possible then.SouthamObserver said:
It beggars belief. Yet Palmer believes in Corbyn. You need to get in that quasi-religious mindset, so you can disabuse it.
Perhaps it is a necessary devotional austerity, to cleanse the taint of the Blair-Iraq THING. I see the psychological need. Trouble is, this navel-gazing deprives the nation of a decent Opposition at the worst possible time since the Second World War.
It is ridiculously irresponsible. It is juvenile. It is wank, They deserve to die and be replaced by Swinson & Co.
I would only point out that Boris is MUCH smarter than Corbyn. Boris is an Eton scholar, a president of the Oxford Union, a very successful editor of the Spectator, and a twice elected London mayor (against the odds)
Corbyn is a nothing, A tadpole. A really quite stupid, and passively nasty polytechnic quasi-posho, who adopted his political beliefs in 1976 and has rigidly stuck by them against all evidence. A man who became a blinkered MP of a can't-lose constituency in his early years, and who hasn't looked ahead since.
And yet, there is a parallel. You are right.0 -
Citation required.edmundintokyo said:
Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.AndyJS said:
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.0 -
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Quite right. He's obviously a buffoon.Byronic said:
Citation required.edmundintokyo said:
Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.AndyJS said:
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.0 -
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Welsh Tory source: “I think the Lib Dems have done it. They have consistently more on every table.”0
-
His friendship with Darius Guppy spoke volumes.Byronic said:
Citation required.edmundintokyo said:
Definitely malign, the buffoonery is an act.AndyJS said:
Boris might be a buffoon but I've never heard anyone describe him as malign.0 -
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Sky - Result due to be announced0
-
You're pulling my leg, aren't you?JBriskinindyref2 said:
Not everyone at the count in logged onto betfair on their smartphones y'know!Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Goodall: Tories expecting to lose but not by thousands.0
-
It's the one before Lindsay Roy won. It was an SNP gain against predictions, can't remember which seat....... yes I can, Glasgow eastTissue_Price said:
At some counts it can be very difficult to see the aggregate bundles; at others it's easy. I've been trying to trace the case above as I vaguely remember it: I think it's a Scottish one from the 2005 Parliament.Chris said:
I'm not saying Betfair can't be wrong, of course, but I think anyone who has been to a count and watched the ballot papers piling up will be sceptical about Betfair being wrong by so much in a by-election.JBriskinindyref2 said:
It's happened - There's an example in Mike's book which I no longer have to hand.Chris said:
You say Betfair was wrong to the extent of having the winner out in the 20s and the loser at 1.02-1.04?Philip_Thompson said:
Wasn't there a vote a few years ago where Betfair was wrong even as the Returning Officer was on stage to announce the results?Chris said:Well, if the Tories have won, this count must be policed with an absolute ring of steel, because in every other count I've ever heard of, everyone in the room has had a pretty shrewd idea who is going to win by this time, or at least if it's close who is in contention.
I would find that unbelievable.0 -
Tory spinners will probably use the line, Boris squeezed the BXP vote, rather than emphasise the candidate's criminal record. After all, he might still be the candidate in a snap general election called next month.dyedwoolie said:I think if Boris can get a convicted criminal within a few % hes not gonna be scared of an election
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