politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result
Comments
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I think Swinson has more potential than Davey, who comes across badly IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.0 -
Isn't the point around postal vote verifications that it gives the first indications of turnout, and specifically turnout for identifiable groups of voters (mostly the Tory-leaning elderly)?viewcode said:
The postal vote anomalies were mentioned and discussed *prior* to the counts.IanB2 said:
Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.viewcode said:
Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.IanB2 said:
I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.Foxy said:
I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.viewcode said:OK, boys and girls. Some quick questions:
1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?
2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?
3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?
4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?
5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?0 -
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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8m
Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.0 -
skills
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Both of them need to step up. Whilst people are rightly saying the unfavourable ratings of the PM and LOTO are poor, the same applies to Swinson. They need to quickly build a team together that looks capable, serious and motivated along with policies beyond brexit that can deliver real change.The_Taxman said:
I think Swinson has more potential than Davey, who comes across badly IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.0 -
Boris Bounce in operation.marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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8m
Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.0 -
Thanks Viewcode - I did of course have the leet skills required to find his twitter was just being lazy.0
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If true, would be extremely low given the seat’s track record. But people are fairly p’d off with politics right now. OTOH that could be the polling station turnout, with a lot of PVs to be added given all the temporary ones for holiday absences.HYUFD said:0 -
Again. Depends what they expected.marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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8m
Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.0 -
It'll be a bit odd if the Tories lose their majority and nothing happens for the next 5 weeks because everyone's on holiday. Especially with the 31st October deadline looming.Recidivist said:It's not impossible that the Tories will lose their majority tomorrow.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html0 -
No probsJBriskinindyref2 said:Thanks Viewcode - I did of course have the leet skills required to find his twitter was just being lazy.
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Adrian Masters is political editor ITV Wales0
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'Far from shooting the UKIP fox, all it did was legitimise me', Farage on Cameron's referendum on C50
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Or installing another PM in No 10.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It will only hasten Boris calling a GE and they will not be a conservative candidatemarke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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19m
Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.0 -
Nick Palmer was just passing through. Only bloke in country who now fits that description.duckeggblue said:
I just can’t see the incentive to vote Labour in this election. Really what’s the point, unless you’re truly tribal? If you care about Brexit one way or the other you’d go LD or BXP. If you don’t you wouldn’t bother voting at all.ydoethur said:
Not there. I always expected that to be the last redoubt of 'donkey with red rosette.' Heck, they even sent Peter Hain and Stephen Kinnock to Parliament!dixiedean said:
You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.ydoethur said:
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.dixiedean said:
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour.ydoethur said:
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.dixiedean said:
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.ydoethur said:
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.dixiedean said:My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
But if that area has crumbled away from them...
Nos da.
Mind you, having said that, I met a bloke in Brecon who expressed simple and unalloyed enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn. He didn’t live in the constituency though.0 -
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157056575351091201?s=20
The LDs won Hay in the 2017 local elections so if true looks neck and neck0 -
The Tories haven't had a majority since 2017.Recidivist said:It's not impossible that the Tories will lose their majority tomorrow.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-defection-lib-dems-brexit-boris-johnson-majority-phillip-lee-a9030576.html0 -
Could someone explain why you can bet on Plaid Cymru on Betfair when they aren't even standing?!!!!0
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We shan't really know that from the result, unfortunately. No doubt it's a bit of both, but who knows how much?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.edmundintokyo said:
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
Here in deepest Surrey the anti-Tory vote is very much that, and flows naturally to whoever is in a position to challenge it. That's how I got onto the council (with a colleague, the first Labour councillors since 2002). I know very few voters who will only vote Lab or only LibDem.0 -
Could just be that the ornery backwoodsman don't like being told they have to ditch an MP they really quite liked.....dixiedean said:
Mmm. That depends on how they thought though? Could mean winning, could mean keeping it close.marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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4m
Another Conservative: the boxes are looking better than we thought.
Still expect the LibDems to gain, but if they don't, they'll need those Tory defections tomorrow as the distraction strategy.0 -
I thought that - surely worth a lay???CatMan said:Could someone explain why you can bet on Plaid Cymru on Betfair when they aren't even standing?!!!!
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If the test of the Tory majority is those who can be relied upon to support, the majority has already expired.justin124 said:
Three would be the Tory majority in reality - because Elphicke - whilst now an Independent since having had the Whip withdrawn - can be relied upon to support the Tories.dixiedean said:
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.ydoethur said:
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.dixiedean said:My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.0 -
Boris bounce.AndyJS said:
Boris Bounce in operation.marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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8m
Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.
Or
Bad Libdem candidate choice and bollocks to brexit will not work everywhere.
Or
Brexit trumps party politics yet again.0 -
If the Tories have really won in Hay, then they will hold the seat.HYUFD said:
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A worse error than May calling an election year later?HYUFD said:'Far from shooting the UKIP fox, all it did was legitimise me', Farage on Cameron's referendum on C5
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Can't see the defections happening tomorrow. Surely if they were coming over, they should have done it before the by-election to help them win?MarqueeMark said:
Could just be that the ornery backwoodsman don't like being told they have to ditch an MP they really quite liked.....dixiedean said:
Mmm. That depends on how they thought though? Could mean winning, could mean keeping it close.marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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4m
Another Conservative: the boxes are looking better than we thought.
Still expect the LibDems to gain, but if they don't, they'll need those Tory defections tomorrow as the distraction strategy.0 -
There's no money on the table to lay. The market will have gone up before nominations closed, and someone is offering to relieve people of a few bob if they are stupid.JBriskinindyref2 said:
I thought that - surely worth a lay???CatMan said:Could someone explain why you can bet on Plaid Cymru on Betfair when they aren't even standing?!!!!
£30 total has been bet on PC out of £413,447 - all presumably before they withdrew.0 -
Possibly yes, the LDs won Hay in 2017 in the local elections in PowysYBarddCwsc said:0 -
And of course National Health Action came second in the constituency at GE2017.NickPalmer said:
We shan't really know that from the result, unfortunately. No doubt it's a bit of both, but who knows how much?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.edmundintokyo said:
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
Here in deepest Surrey the anti-Tory vote is very much that, and flows naturally to whoever is in a position to challenge it. That's how I got onto the council (with a colleague, the first Labour councillors since 2002). I know very few voters who will only vote Lab or only LibDem.0 -
Looking better for Con. Latest Betfair:viewcode said:
If anybody wants to back Con, there's £58@15/1, £28@13.5 and £15@15/1marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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8m
Conservatives seem to be doing well in the smaller towns of Brecon and Radnorshire.
If they win, that gives you £870+£378+£225 = £1,473. If they don't, you lose £101.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159853905
15/1-£58, 16/1-£27, 17/1-£37
If they win, you get £870+432+629=£1,932
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(a) waiting to see how it goes; and (b) after tomorrow, a defector deprives Johnson of a majority, rather than merely reducing it, which is a bigger story.NickPalmer said:
Can't see the defections happening tomorrow. Surely if they were coming over, they should have done it before the by-election to help them win?MarqueeMark said:
Could just be that the ornery backwoodsman don't like being told they have to ditch an MP they really quite liked.....dixiedean said:
Mmm. That depends on how they thought though? Could mean winning, could mean keeping it close.marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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4m
Another Conservative: the boxes are looking better than we thought.
Still expect the LibDems to gain, but if they don't, they'll need those Tory defections tomorrow as the distraction strategy.
I agree that I don't think they'd go tomorrow though, as it would be swallowed up by by-election win story should it happen.0 -
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So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?0
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Maybe, maybe not, either way it looks far closer than it did 2 hours agoviewcode said:So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157059286444466177?s=200 -
The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/491988250 -
If Cons really have won this, it will feel like a Gain for them.0
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When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.HYUFD said:
Maybe, maybe not, either way it looks far closer than it did 2 hours agoviewcode said:So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157059286444466177?s=200 -
Remember that all the rumours coming through now are based on polling station votes only.
Although normally the PVs favour the Tories, with so many pensioners attracted to BXP Ltd. this may not be the case this time.0 -
In all seriousness it’s not so easy to do that when you are a minor party in two party fptp system. Libdems have had most joy at ballot box when saying bollocks to Iraq war, bollocks to tuition fees, and it seems bollocks to brexit, none of those successful slogans are actual policy to survive the test of government, just lazily exploiting one side of an argument for easy votes at expense of those with a more realistic policy. If you want to argue, you explain you won’t raise the funding from tuition fees or will fund it another way, that of course may not be so catchy a slogan on billboard or such vote winner, likewise bollocks to brexit is bollocks to the votes of 17.4M voters who won a democratic election, that isn’t sustainable if entering into government tomorrow.noneoftheabove said:
Both of them need to step up. Whilst people are rightly saying the unfavourable ratings of the PM and LOTO are poor, the same applies to Swinson. They need to quickly build a team together that looks capable, serious and motivated along with policies beyond brexit that can deliver real change.The_Taxman said:
I think Swinson has more potential than Davey, who comes across badly IMO.Richard_Nabavi said:In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.
Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.0 -
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plusIanB2 said:
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.HYUFD said:
Maybe, maybe not, either way it looks far closer than it did 2 hours agoviewcode said:So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157059286444466177?s=200 -
The town's will be the decider? Where most people live and vote will decide who wins. Amazing analysis.HYUFD said:https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157056575351091201?s=20
The LDs won Hay in the 2017 local elections so if true looks neck and neck0 -
Hey, Viewcode, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Vwap! Fry half a parliamentary constituency with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, election leaflets, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got bar charts, knocker uppers...viewcode said:So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?
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If the LDs win on pre Boris bounce postals will still be a good night for the ToriesIanB2 said:Remember that all the rumours coming through now are based on polling station votes only.
Although normally the PVs favour the Tories, with so many pensioners attracted to BXP Ltd. this may not be the case this time.0 -
You always get a lot of statements of the obvious on by-election nights while awaiting the results, because people struggle to find anything new to say.nunuone said:
The town's will be the decider? Where most people live and vote will decide who wins. Amazing analysis.HYUFD said:https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157056575351091201?s=20
The LDs won Hay in the 2017 local elections so if true looks neck and neck0 -
Towns are about 40%. Villages about 30%. Halfway up a hill on some narrow track 30%.nunuone said:
The town's will be the decider? Where most people live and vote will decide who wins. Amazing analysis.HYUFD said:https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157056575351091201?s=20
The LDs won Hay in the 2017 local elections so if true looks neck and neck0 -
And choose any port in the storm.FrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/491988250 -
They will take about 1,000 years to get built in modern Britain.FrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/491988250 -
Braintree has a FreeportFrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49198825
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Con. Latest Betfair:viewcode said:
Looking better for Con. Latest Betfair:viewcode said:
If anybody wants to back Con, there's £58@15/1, £28@13.5 and £15@15/1marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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8m
Conservatives seem to be doing well in the smaller towns of Brecon and Radnorshire.
If they win, that gives you £870+£378+£225 = £1,473. If they don't, you lose £101.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159853905
15/1-£58, 16/1-£27, 17/1-£37
If they win, you get £870+432+629=£1,932
5/1-£20, 5.1-£82, 5.2-£90
That's £100+£418+£468 = £986. Somebody is emptying his sack.0 -
That's great news where are they going to be?FrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/491988250 -
I wouldn’t trust any polling day quantitative data since it’s almost impossible to get any - any activist is only chasing their own voters. What you can get is a ‘feel’ if people down as supporters are showing doubts, or alternatively people down as probable have become certain and enthusiastic.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plusIanB2 said:
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.HYUFD said:
Maybe, maybe not, either way it looks far closer than it did 2 hours agoviewcode said:So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157059286444466177?s=200 -
In terms of preparing the ground for the forthcoming GE, would not the best result for the Tories be a narrow loss to allow them to cite the example of Brecon and Radnor in squeezing the Brexit Party vote? i.e. Vote Brexit Party, get Remain.HYUFD said:0 -
I bet CCHQ is cursing not sneakily funding a “Literal Democrat” candidate onto the ballot paper.0
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I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable0 -
Not surprising since Labour were only 559 votes short of winning the seat then.justin124 said:
In the 1985 by election Labour won the PVs!IanB2 said:Remember that all the rumours coming through now are based on polling station votes only.
Although normally the PVs favour the Tories, with so many pensioners attracted to BXP Ltd. this may not be the case this time.0 -
day releaseZephyr said:
Nick Palmer was just passing through. Only bloke in country who now fits that description.duckeggblue said:
I just can’t see the incentive to vote Labour in this election. Really what’s the point, unless you’re truly tribal? If you care about Brexit one way or the other you’d go LD or BXP. If you don’t you wouldn’t bother voting at all.ydoethur said:
Not there. I always expected that to be the last redoubt of 'donkey with red rosette.' Heck, they even sent Peter Hain and Stephen Kinnock to Parliament!dixiedean said:
You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.ydoethur said:
Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.dixiedean said:
I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour.ydoethur said:
Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.dixiedean said:
Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.ydoethur said:
Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.dixiedean said:My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.
Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.
So no, they will not be thinking like that.
Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.
Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...
If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.
But if that area has crumbled away from them...
Nos da.
Mind you, having said that, I met a bloke in Brecon who expressed simple and unalloyed enthusiasm for Jeremy Corbyn. He didn’t live in the constituency though.
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Not anymore!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Braintree has a FreeportFrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49198825
"The UK had seven of them at various points between 1984 and 2012, when the legislation establishing them was not renewed. " from the BBC article.0 -
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable0 -
Good job grayling wont be in charge of the freeports project, otherwise we would be ending up with ones in places like Wolverhampton and swindon...0
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Well, would you pay for a port in Braintree?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Braintree has a FreeportFrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/491988250 -
You should expect a call from Boris himselfHYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable0 -
A narrow Tory loss and Brexit Party third would certainly not be a disasterWulfrun_Phil said:
In terms of preparing the ground for the forthcoming GE, would not the best result for the Tories be a narrow loss to allow them to cite the example of Brecon and Radnor in squeezing the Brexit Party vote? i.e. Vote Brexit Party, get Remain.HYUFD said:0 -
I expect Boris would be hungover and having a celebratory 'morning in bed' with Carrie!M.Partridge said:
You should expect a call from Boris himselfHYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable0 -
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OH FOR FUCKS SAKE MASTERS! HIS PREVIOUS CONVOS WERE WITH CONS! NOW HE'S TALKING TO THE LIBS! THEY ARE SAYING DIFFERENT THINGS! BAD ITV PERSON! GIVE BETTER DATA!
[yup. Need more sleep... ] 0 -
Who do you think labour sources want to win this one, out of the two candidates who can actually win? My guess is tonight Labour are rooting for the libdems.dixiedean said:
Again. Depends what they expected.marke09 said:Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
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8m
Labour source says early boxes are looking better for Conservatives than expected and worse for Brexit party than expected.0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braintree_Freeport_railway_stationThe_Taxman said:
Not anymore!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Braintree has a FreeportFrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49198825
"The UK had seven of them at various points between 1984 and 2012, when the legislation establishing them was not renewed. " from the BBC article.0 -
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Once the boxes are open, and since it's still polling day - those are real votes being tallied.IanB2 said:
I wouldn’t trust any polling day quantitative data since it’s almost impossible to get any - any activist is only chasing their own voters. What you can get is a ‘feel’ if people down as supporters are showing doubts, or alternatively people down as probable have become certain and enthusiastic.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plusIanB2 said:
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.HYUFD said:
Maybe, maybe not, either way it looks far closer than it did 2 hours agoviewcode said:So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157059286444466177?s=200 -
We’ll all be wishing you’d done a third hour, telling all those unwanted remainers to p**s off and vote LibDem.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
BTW doesn’t the Tory system allow helpers to phone from their home?0 -
You know that happened in IRL in Scotland in 2017(?). Canvasser gave oldie lift to polling station. Oldie voted for them. They won by very few votes.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable0 -
Exactly - the view then was that they had the best chance.AndyJS said:
And of course National Health Action came second in the constituency at GE2017.NickPalmer said:
We shan't really know that from the result, unfortunately. No doubt it's a bit of both, but who knows how much?Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.edmundintokyo said:
That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.
Here in deepest Surrey the anti-Tory vote is very much that, and flows naturally to whoever is in a position to challenge it. That's how I got onto the council (with a colleague, the first Labour councillors since 2002). I know very few voters who will only vote Lab or only LibDem.1 -
Sky news doing their programme now0
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It is a meaningless announcement. If they said definitively that some coastal towns or cities were going to get this status that would be great but they are not. It is a no cost Government announcement! I expect we will probably never hear about it again in a few months. It is a bit like Labour's proposed spending when Lord Mandelson got the "Governments chequebook out" to back schemes in certain parts of the country in 2009 - 2010...FrancisUrquhart said:Good job grayling wont be in charge of the freeports project, otherwise we would be ending up with ones in places like Wolverhampton and swindon...
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Bit of a swing on betfair against the tories just gone from 6.2 to 12.50
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But the supposed data came in during the day.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Once the boxes are open, and since it's still polling day - those are real votes being tallied.IanB2 said:
I wouldn’t trust any polling day quantitative data since it’s almost impossible to get any - any activist is only chasing their own voters. What you can get is a ‘feel’ if people down as supporters are showing doubts, or alternatively people down as probable have become certain and enthusiastic.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Last thread we had some "intel" from a poster claiming LDs 60pc plusIanB2 said:
When did it not look close two hours ago? There are only a few PB’ers who have been there and all the reports I have seen are saying it could be close.HYUFD said:
Maybe, maybe not, either way it looks far closer than it did 2 hours agoviewcode said:So. Are Con are going to win? Or not?
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157059286444466177?s=20
The votes being tallied now exclude PVs, of which there are a lot, it being August and all, and a relatively elderly population and a lot of remote properties.0 -
It's Lewis; not Jon - hope he's passed on the sources0
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Sky News by-election special has just started.0
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https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157063445856043008
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]0 -
Is this the Welsh Curtis???0
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By the time I had got back from work was quicker to phone from CCHQ plus went for drinks afterwards in Westminster with some interns across parties and Epping colleaguesIanB2 said:
We’ll all be wishing you’d done a third hour, telling all those unwanted remainers to p**s off and vote LibDem.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
BTW doesn’t the Tory system allow helpers to phone from their home?0 -
Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.0
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That being said, if the Tories had no chance they be telling him they were miles behind wouldn’t they? We’d have the liberals saying “too close to call” and the Tories saying “lost because of the Brexit Party” already.viewcode said:https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157063445856043008
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]0 -
That tweet does sound bad for the toriesviewcode said:https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157063445856043008
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]0 -
Never ignore the pensionersviewcode said:
You know that happened in IRL in Scotland in 2017(?). Canvasser gave oldie lift to polling station. Oldie voted for them. They won by very few votes.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable0 -
I don't think looking at that you understand what a freeport or enterprise zone entails. You are correct that it is named as "Braintree Freeport" but I don't think it has the status or advantages associated with that anymore if it ever did.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braintree_Freeport_railway_stationThe_Taxman said:
Not anymore!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Braintree has a FreeportFrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49198825
"The UK had seven of them at various points between 1984 and 2012, when the legislation establishing them was not renewed. " from the BBC article.0 -
Oh the joys of lying in... oh! Has he just spilt last nights Pinot on the sheets. Oh dear. Put the new iPad down. No don’t throw - Crash! Put the laptop down, it’s what I must use to start nuclear war. No don’t throw itHYUFD said:
I expect Boris would be hungover and having a celebratory 'morning in bed' with Carrie!M.Partridge said:
You should expect a call from Boris himselfHYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
Further down the ballot will Lily the Pink mop up hard left votes in error?
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It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:ExpatMalaysia said:Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/11570634458560430081 -
And the completely inexperienced BXP Ltd. activists are the last people I would trust to do a tally properly. In a varied seat like B&R you’d need a representative spread across the seat to get a good fix on the result.viewcode said:https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157063445856043008
Oh Christ. He's not gathering data and analysing. He's just repeating what the local politicians tell him. He's Brian O'Hanrahhanrah'han from The Day Today. Look at the boxes and make your own conclusions, dippy!
[the curse of Wikipedia. Just because the source is good, doesn't make it true. You have to check!]
Probably expectations management on their part, so when they and the combined leave vote does better than that they can spin it as good news.0 -
This is true.HYUFD said:
Never ignore the pensionersviewcode said:
You know that happened in IRL in Scotland in 2017(?). Canvasser gave oldie lift to polling station. Oldie voted for them. They won by very few votes.HYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable0 -
15-1 now for tories was 5-1 not that long ago0
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Does it encourage local young people to hang around port areas at night, hoping for gainful employment?The_Taxman said:
I don't think looking at that you understand what a freeport or enterprise zone entails. You are correct that it is named as "Braintree Freeport" but I don't think it has the status or advantages associated with that anymore if it ever did.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Braintree_Freeport_railway_stationThe_Taxman said:
Not anymore!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Braintree has a FreeportFrancisUrquhart said:The government is planning to create up to 10 free ports across the UK after Brexit
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49198825
"The UK had seven of them at various points between 1984 and 2012, when the legislation establishing them was not renewed. " from the BBC article.0 -
If that’s true, brexit is toast.viewcode said:
It's usually considered polite to cite the source you are getting the info from:ExpatMalaysia said:Brexit party sources who've surveyed ballot boxes being verified think Lib Dems have won the by-election with half of the vote. Conservatives with a third. Brexit party 1 in 10 and Labour below that.
https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/11570634458560430080 -
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The people’s flag is slightly pink, it’s not as red as most folks think?Zephyr said:
Oh the joys of lying in... oh! Has he just spilt last nights Pinot on the sheets. Oh dear. Put the new iPad down. No don’t throw - Crash! Put the laptop down, it’s what I must use to start nuclear war. No don’t throw itHYUFD said:
I expect Boris would be hungover and having a celebratory 'morning in bed' with Carrie!M.Partridge said:
You should expect a call from Boris himselfHYUFD said:
If the Tories win by 1 vote please can my 2 hours phoning from CCHQ tonight get a mention?M.Partridge said:I just can't see the Tories winning.
No green Party, No Plaid, labour vote crumbling, poor choice in Conservative candidate, Tory vote split with Brexit party. Up against 2017 election where Conservative, while not great in seats terms actually polled very highly.
Lib dems polling super strong at the moment, with postal votes coming before Boris Bounce.
If Con have done this, it is remarkable
Further down the ballot will Lily the Pink mop up hard left votes in error?0
