politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1157044831811715072

marke09 said:

31m
Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84

That, if confirmed, is big, big news. That would be a disaster for Labour.

But the other tweets are as usual a mix of gossip, speculation and people who are as clueless as our favourite geographer from Epping, all contradicting themselves, so I'm not getting carried away just yet.

viewcode said:

OK, boys and girls. Some quick questions:

1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?

2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?

3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?

4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?

5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?

I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.

Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.

Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

So no, they will not be thinking like that.

Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.

I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour.
Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...

Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.

If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.

duckeggblue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

duckeggblue said:

Oops, messed up block quotes already!

What's your view on pineapples on pizza?

1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?

or

2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?

Weeeellll...
To be circumspect, I’ve never knowingly eaten one.
And I’ve never seen Die Hard either.

TSE has had the occasional pineapple pizza... which explains a lot.

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

OK, boys and girls. Some quick questions:

1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?

2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?

3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?

4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?

5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?

I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.

Literally all of them. And Heidi. And Anna Soubry. Not at the same time though.

HYUFD said:

Portillo on 'The Trouble with the Tories' on C5 now

Recording it... is it any good?

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
19m
Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.

How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.

I agree. These rumours have been swirling around for ages, and the only justification for acting now would be if the LibDem win were to be so emphatic that it is clearly an overwhelming rejection by voters of the new government’s policy. Otherwise, it would have made more sense to have acted on Bozo’s accession, or wait until there is a significant development in government policy/action on Brexit when parliament resumes.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

Corbyn is your albatross

You think Cooper or Starmer or Benn would get a 15 % swing to come through from third and take this seat? That's a pretty high assessment of their capabilities.

Or a realistic assessment of how poor the PM is. Just as he does well because he is up against Corbyn, a sensible Labour leader would do well against Johnson.

Indeed a sensible labour leader would have united all the opposition to remain and it would have been over before now

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
35m
There's a bit of annoyance at the party centrally. Some Conservatives were disappointed that Boris Johnson didn't make more of his campaign stop in Brecon on Tuesday. A lot of activists were ready and waiting for him but he didn't go walkabout.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
35m
Some have also reported similar annoyance that Alun Cairns didn't campaign more than a visit to the Royal Welsh show which one said is remarkable given that he's the Secretary of State.

Benpointer said:

theProle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157032485806661643?s=09)

It's not possible. Parliament doesn't allow either/or votes.

He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).

Sensible post until someone tacked on some nonsense in brackets at the end.

My tongue was a little in my cheek at that point, but it's not that wildly implausible. Imagine Boris is forced to revoke by his own stupidity as considered above (I don't think he is nearly that stupid, but that's a different question) and the government promptly collapses in a heap, causing a GE.

In such a GE, almost no-one will vote Tory (as they will have hacked off just about everybody, and will be having a good sized civil war), Brexiteers are pretty much all going to go with Farage, so you could plausibily see a vote share of say 8% Tory, 38% Brexit, 26% Lab, 23% Lib, 5% Others, which would indeed lead to PM Farage.

Ultimately there is about 40% of the vote out there for clearly leave parties. With a split opposition, any act which unifys the leave vote in one place is likely to win big at a GE. Currently, Boris is going Uber-leave to try to achieve this - however if he stuffs this up as discussed above, he will probably manage to unify the leave vote in the Brexit party instead.

FrancisUrquhart said:

duckeggblue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

duckeggblue said:

Oops, messed up block quotes already!

What's your view on pineapples on pizza?

1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?

or

2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?

Weeeellll...
To be circumspect, I’ve never knowingly eaten one.
And I’ve never seen Die Hard either.

Never seen the best Christmas movie ever....be gone with you.

Even Bruce Willis says Die Hard is NOT a Christmas film.

https://www.radiotimes.com/news/film/2018-07-16/bruce-willis-just-confirmed-whether-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.

Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.

Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

So no, they will not be thinking like that.

Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.

I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour.
Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...

Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.

If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.

You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.

Scott_P said:

duckeggblue said:

Weeeellll...
To be circumspect, I’ve never knowingly eaten one.
And I’ve never seen Die Hard either.

Ever willingly listened to Radiohead?

Now that is a ... rare distinction.

JBriskinindyref2 said:

rural_voter said:

Benpointer said:

Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?

I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.

The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.

I think you mean "bet £100 to win £2" Mr High Roller!

He really means risk £1000 for the prospect of maybe making £20.

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
16m
The Brexit party believe they've done enough to lure Labour leave voters to vote for them.

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.

Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.

Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

So no, they will not be thinking like that.

Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.

I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour.
Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...

Not there it isn't. Or it hasn't been up to now.

If that changes, we should start to take seriously the idea Labour are facing a crisis in their traditional heartlands.

You don't think we reached that point some time ago? I do. Particularly in the mining communities.

Not there. I always expected that to be the last redoubt of 'donkey with red rosette.' Heck, they even sent Peter Hain and Stephen Kinnock to Parliament!

But if that area has crumbled away from them...

Nos da.

ITV Wales thinks it will be close BBC Wales thinks it wont be

duckeggblue said:

If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?

And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.

Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...

theProle said:

Benpointer said:

theProle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157032485806661643?s=09)

It's not possible. Parliament doesn't allow either/or votes.

He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).

Sensible post until someone tacked on some nonsense in brackets at the end.

My tongue was a little in my cheek at that point, but it's not that wildly implausible. Imagine Boris is forced to revoke by his own stupidity as considered above (I don't think he is nearly that stupid, but that's a different question) and the government promptly collapses in a heap, causing a GE.

In such a GE, almost no-one will vote Tory (as they will have hacked off just about everybody, and will be having a good sized civil war), Brexiteers are pretty much all going to go with Farage, so you could plausibily see a vote share of say 8% Tory, 38% Brexit, 26% Lab, 23% Lib, 5% Others, which would indeed lead to PM Farage.

Ultimately there is about 40% of the vote out there for clearly leave parties. With a split opposition, any act which unifys the leave vote in one place is likely to win big at a GE. Currently, Boris is going Uber-leave to try to achieve this - however if he stuffs this up as discussed above, he will probably manage to unify the leave vote in the Brexit party instead.

Even in that scenario, I cannot see BXP Ltd getting 38%; Farage is toxic to too many.

AndyJS said:

So if 5 Tory MPs do defect to the LDs after tonight's result, what happens next? It would obviously mean the government no longer has a majority.

Brenda better cancel her holibobs....

AndyJS said:

So if 5 Tory MPs do defect to the LDs after tonight's result, what happens next? It would obviously mean the government no longer has a majority.

It's surely gossip put about by the LDs hoping to convince a few to defect.

Richard_Nabavi said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
19m
Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.

How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.

Isn't the point that you want to choose your moment to create a sense of momentum?

Right before the long August break doesn’t feel like it.

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

kle4 said:

marke09 said:

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
19m
Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.

How lame. If they want to do it, victory or not for the LDs should not matter. Yeah yeah, career suicide and all that, but anyone pondering defection is probably out on their ear in the current Tory party anyway.

Isn't the point that you want to choose your moment to create a sense of momentum?

Right before the long August break doesn’t feel like it.

True. I was just responding to the 'lame' bit.

Scott_P said:

AndyJS said:

So if 5 Tory MPs do defect to the LDs after tonight's result, what happens next? It would obviously mean the government no longer has a majority.

VONC

Would Parliament be recalled or do we all wait around for 5 weeks?

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Portillo on 'The Trouble with the Tories' on C5 now

Recording it... is it any good?

Yes, he has interviewed Heseltine, Blair, Boris, Lamont, Osborne amongst others so far

Right, I'm too tired to stay up till 1:00am or beyond so I am going to have to miss the actual moment the orange revolution took off / the Remainer alliance imploded (delete as appropriate).

Night all - I look forward to the multiple interpretations of what it all means in the morning.

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
41s
50% of Conservative signs were defaced last night apparently and 'it wasn't the first time' I'm told.

In fact, thinking about this point, the best time now to defect would be in a dramatic coordinated crossing of the floor on the day parliament reconvenes.

Dunno whether it will happen, though. Our LibDem friends have screwed up by choosing Jo Swinson rather than Ed Davey, which certainly won't help.

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
2m
Several Conservatives have now told me this has been a nasty campaign. 'The dirtiest campaign I've ever known,' said one. Including personal abuse.
Show this thread
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
3m
Conservatives are cheered after seeing another batch of boxes which look good for them. They still think it's going to be tight though.

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
8m
Conservatives seem to be doing well in the smaller towns of Brecon and Radnorshire.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

duckeggblue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

duckeggblue said:

Oops, messed up block quotes already!

What's your view on pineapples on pizza?

1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?

or

2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?

Weeeellll...
To be circumspect, I’ve never knowingly eaten one.
And I’ve never seen Die Hard either.

Never seen the best Christmas movie ever....be gone with you.

Even Bruce Willis says Die Hard is NOT a Christmas film.

https://www.radiotimes.com/news/film/2018-07-16/bruce-willis-just-confirmed-whether-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.

Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:

1. It's set at Christmas
2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film.
3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman
4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…”
5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly"
6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.

Ode to Joy - Christmas music ?!?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

duckeggblue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

duckeggblue said:

Oops, messed up block quotes already!

What's your view on pineapples on pizza?

1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?

or

2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?

Weeeellll...
To be circumspect, I’ve never knowingly eaten one.
And I’ve never seen Die Hard either.

Never seen the best Christmas movie ever....be gone with you.

Even Bruce Willis says Die Hard is NOT a Christmas film.

https://www.radiotimes.com/news/film/2018-07-16/bruce-willis-just-confirmed-whether-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.

Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:

1. It's set at Christmas
2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film.
3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman
4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…”
5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly"
6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.

Of course its a Christmas film!

It's Home Alone for grown ups. Is Home Alone a Christmas film?

viewcode said:

Benpointer said:

viewcode said:

duckeggblue said:

If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?

And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.

Yay, welcome to the party! We have a high mortality rate, half the cast is ill (some very seriously... ) or have been mugged, and every now on then somebody who isn't @SeanT logs on to abuse us. It isn't much, but there's nothing on telly...

There's Portillo on the Tories on C5

Portillo. Hmph. Is he wearing that stupid blazer?

Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

WHO DARES WINS!

WE dare! WE will WIN!

AndyJS said:

So if 5 Tory MPs do defect to the LDs after tonight's result, what happens next? It would obviously mean the government no longer has a majority.

MPs go and take long holidays whilst the country accelerates towards chaos?

If the Tory wins, can there be another recall?

I propose we should have a national referendum on whether die hard is a christmas movie. That would settle the issue once and for all.

duckeggblue said:

(I’m really sorry I mentioned D** H*** btw.)

Just keep quiet on the Punic Wars is my advice...

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

OK, boys and girls. Some quick questions:

1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?

2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?

3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?

4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?

5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?

I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.

I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.

Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.

Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.

Benpointer said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

duckeggblue said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

duckeggblue said:

Oops, messed up block quotes already!

What's your view on pineapples on pizza?

1) The worst thing that humanity has ever done?

or

2) The sign of a society going to hell in a handcart?

Weeeellll...
To be circumspect, I’ve never knowingly eaten one.
And I’ve never seen Die Hard either.

Never seen the best Christmas movie ever....be gone with you.

Even Bruce Willis says Die Hard is NOT a Christmas film.

https://www.radiotimes.com/news/film/2018-07-16/bruce-willis-just-confirmed-whether-die-hard-is-a-christmas-movie/

We should, of course, take this with a pinch of salt as it was during a comedy stint where Willis was making fun of himself, hamming up his ego for the sake of a few laughs.

Die Hard definitely IS a Christmas Movie:

1. It's set at Christmas
2. Christmas music - Let it Snow!, Winter Wonderland, Beethoven's Ode to Joy, jingling bells - all sounds and songs associated with Christmas, and all played throughout the film.
3. ""It's Christmas Theo, it's the time of miracles," Alan Rickman
4. “Now I have a machine gun, Ho-Ho-Ho…”
5. Bruce Willis' character's wife is called "Holly"
6. Because Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.

Ode to Joy - Christmas music ?!?

Christmas in Hollis

marke09 said:

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
8m
Conservatives seem to be doing well in the smaller towns of Brecon and Radnorshire.

If anybody wants to back Con, there's £58@15/1, £28@13.5 and £15@15/1

If they win, that gives you £870+£378+£225 = £1,473. If they don't, you lose £101.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159853905

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

OK, boys and girls. Some quick questions:

1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?

2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?

3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?

4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?

5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?

I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.

I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.

Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.

Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.

How does that happen? How do you know which way round the voter has stuffed them into the envelope? Even if it says to stuff it one way, I imagine many would stuff it the other way and that's not a spoilt ballot.

IanB2 said:

viewcode said:

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

viewcode said:

OK, boys and girls. Some quick questions:

1) POSTAL VOTES
One way of predicting an election is postal vote verification. Postal votes are verified, the party apparatchiks are allowed to invigilate, gossip leaks out. Has anybody heard anything?

2) DIFFERENTIAL TURNOUT
Are there any reports of areas voting more/less than before? Naice middle-class people queuing? Council estate folk voting lots? Farmers?

3) GOSSIP
The chatter coming out of B&R is uncertain Libs and Con politicians staying away in droves. Has anybody got goss?

4) NEWS FROM THE COUNT
Is anybody at the village hall/sports center watching the votes pile up?

5) MODELLERS
Has anybody done a model of the vote?

I think that your 3) is wrong. While big name Tories have been washing their hair for the last month, virtually all the LD MPs have been out posting focus leaflets and wearing out shoe leather.

I don’t know why people on this site keep posting 1. It’s always BS, as anyone who has actually attended one of these openings will be well aware.

Postal vote sampling were an early indicator in both the 2015 GE and 2016 Ref, and Ruth Davison(?) admitted doing it on Newsnicht.

Just BS rumours started by people who have been, seen next to nothing but don’t want to admit they have wasted their time, and then exaggerated into predictions as each person passes it on. If the verification is done properly they will be lucky to see any papers, as they are kept face down.

The postal vote anomalies were mentioned and discussed *prior* to the counts.

dixiedean said:

But would it? Wouldn't it be better the morning after the transparent attempt to re-unite the Right by swallowing TBP whole, by simply becoming them, has failed?
At the very least, it would point up the need for a new strategy. And leave a modicum of time for a re-think.
Not that I buy it, mind.

I see your point. OTOH, as @IanB2 remarked, just before everyone disappears on their hols doesn't seem entirely a good idea.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I propose we should have a national referendum on whether die hard is a christmas movie. That would settle the issue once and for all.

Steven de Souza, the writer himself, says it's a Christmas movie - and since he was the one who actually conceived the whole thing and brought it to the big screen, he should know.

ydoethur said:

marke09 said:

31m
Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84

That, if confirmed, is big, big news. That would be a disaster for Labour.

That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

marke09 said:

31m
Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84

That, if confirmed, is big, big news. That would be a disaster for Labour.

That depends, if the anti-no-deal vote is coalescing around the party best placed to win each seat then that would be wonderful for Labour.

Yes, but not so much if it's coalescing around the LibDems irrespective of tactical considerations.

https://twitter.com/adrianmasters84/status/1157053393598390272?s=20

Anybody else at the count?