politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It should be between 2am and 4am that we get the Brecon result

First!

if Lib Dems dont win with 3 party support they dont deserve to win anywhere

Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .

Day of Brecon-ing!

How is the betting moving?

I wonder what it is with Nigel Farage and aeroplanes? It is hardly man of the people stuff! Maybe Nigel Farage should knock these environmentally unfriendly machines on the head. I doubt they add any votes to the Brexit party candidate so why bother? Farage would be better getting pissed in a pub on election day like in Peterborough in the recent by-election as that made no difference to that result either.

"LIVE: Brecon & Radnorshire by-election votes counted"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-politics-49103064

kle4 said:

Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .

On today's Mori the LDs should win tonight by about 42% to 41% for the Tories but I expect it will be more through their by election machine

Nice parting gift to Boris from Theresa May!

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rpjs said:

What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.

You Kent be serious.

Well one of the words I associate with Farage is often turned to 'Kent' by auto-correct.

Canterbury?

Countryside?

Cannot?

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157032485806661643?s=09)

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?

I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.

GIN1138 said:

Nice parting gift to Boris from Theresa May!

Surely the Pro-Brexit Tory Incumbent seeking re-election cannot lose in a seat that voted for Brexit? If the Tories don't win here under a Pro-Brexit leader in Boris Johnson, then maybe the electorate is having second thoughts about Brexit...

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?

I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.

The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rpjs said:

What is it with Farage and aircraft towing banners? I presume he's learnt better than to actually fly in the plane this time.

I hope the Brexit Party declares the cost of it on their returns.

I know what a stickler Farage is when it comes to electoral law.

Hah! It's probably owned by one of their ordinary 'man of the people' backers, so no charge.

Still has to be declared, otherwise you could bypass the spending limits with in kind donations.

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

GIN1138 said:

If I was there I'd vote Lib-Dem to get the Con expenses fiddler out!

God knows what the Tories were thinking making him their candidate,

May turn out to be a shrewd move. If he wins then it's 'Triumph for Boris'. Lose and it's 'not Boris's fault - blame the silly old local party for choosing a crook'.

Well I’m not going to offer to eat my hat but I am amazed at some of the predictions so far.

Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?

I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157032485806661643?s=09)

Problem is he might think he would win seeking a new mandate but would be risk it so soon when it would mean, if he loses, that he is the shortest serving PM? A man as vain as Boris?

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?

I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.

The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.

This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.

theProle said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1157032485806661643?s=09)

It's not possible. Parliament doesn't allow either/or votes.

He could hold a vote on revocation, probably he would win, and MPs would go back to looking for ways to block no deal, but it's just possible that he loses and then has to revoke, at which point he's pretty certain to be toast (PM Farage all but nailed on).

Sensible post until someone tacked on some nonsense in brackets at the end.

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

Beginning of the end for the Tories perhaps. Although it will be interesting to see how close they get. And god forbid the LDs cannot win even under these conditions, that would be embarrassing .

On today's Mori the LDs should win tonight by about 42% to 41% for the Tories but I expect it will be more through their by election machine

Sound plausible - win by 1500 or so? The Tories will say "better than expected", the LibDems will say "triumph" and labour will say "tactical voting". As a Labour voter I'd be very tempted because of the strategic position (and conversely I wouldn't read anything into the expected Labour collapse - if I'd be tempted, any Labour voter would be).

El_Capitano said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?

I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.

The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.

This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.

Even allowing for that, she was a foolish choice. Roger Williams or Kirsty Williams should have been begged to stand.

This is a very strange by-election and I think it will cause massive confusion in the media narrative - only ITV seems to have grasped the complexity of it. But quite simply, it's obvious that both the parties in contention have, for whatever reason, chosen unsuitable candidates who would certainly have lost had they not been facing each other.

El_Capitano said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?

I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.

The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.

This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.

Having totally crap candidates doesn't seem to have held back the Tories or Labour much over the past 50 years or more.

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

Corbyn is your albatross

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.

Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.

Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

So no, they will not be thinking like that.

Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.

ydoethur said:

El_Capitano said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?

I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.

The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.

This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.

Even allowing for that, she was a foolish choice. Roger Williams or Kirsty Williams should have been begged to stand.

This is a very strange by-election and I think it will cause massive confusion in the media narrative - only ITV seems to have grasped the complexity of it. But quite simply, it's obvious that both the parties in contention have, for whatever reason, chosen unsuitable candidates who would certainly have lost had they not been facing each other.

Sounds like the 2016 POTUS election!

As first posts go, duckeggblue's field report for is about as much as any PBer could hope for. Prediction: LD gain, maj 1700 votes. Turnout 57%.

THIS IS NOT A TIP.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1157043029854904327

Powys council tell me turnout is expected to be announced between 0100 - 0130

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

Corbyn is your albatross

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

Corbyn is your albatross

You think Cooper or Starmer or Benn would get a 15 % swing to come through from third and take this seat? That's a pretty high assessment of their capabilities.

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

Corbyn is your albatross

Great spin there, Big G...:)

Why spin. Realistic observation surely

duckeggblue said:

Oops, messed up block quotes already!

A seminal moment in the life of any PB poster.

Apart from Mr Dancer, who refuses to use them and just confuses the hell out of us all all the time instead of some of the time as a result.

Benpointer said:

Wasn't it about this time of evening that Peterborough was a nailed on win for the BXP?

I do hope the LDs don't fall short but I'm not going to count chickens before they hatch.

The odds on the two exchanges are now as low as ~1.02, i.e. bet £1,000 to win £20. No thanks. I couldn't find any betting value in B&R at any stage. The odds started off at about 1.2, even before it was clear that the LDs were doing quite well.

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
19m
Sources in parliament have heard there could be up to five Tory MPs ready to defect if the Lib Dems win tonight.

Gallowgate said:

But Labour HQ says that the Tory enablers are worse than the Tories themselves?

Not in my hearing - citation needed. Clearly the LibDems are not reliable since they are as ever open to siding with either of the others. But they're certainly better than the Tories.

The Liberal Democrats are hopeful but don't believe they're in landslide territory. They report a sense that Boris Johnson taking over as Prime Minister has had an impact.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
33m
The Lib Dems say they've been getting a positive response from 'old supporters and new allies' but one Lib Dem tells me 'the percentages at the end of this could well resemble the referendum tally, hopefully in our favour.'
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
31m
Labour sources are expecting a bad night. They may be happy if they hold onto their deposit. I understand that all the way through the campaign they've seen their vote 'draining away' to the Lib Dems.
Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
30m
Conservative after Conservative tell me it'll be close. Possibly even recount territory. 'Our vote is strong,' said one 'and going out to vote for Chris [Davies]'

marke09 said:

Adrian Masters
@adrianmasters84
·
21m
A prediction from a Labour source: Lib Dems win, Cons 2nd, Brexit 3rd, Labour 4th. But keeping their deposit.

Not losing their deposit will be considered a good night for Labour?

Benpointer said:

El_Capitano said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

JBriskinindyref2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

How many Muslims are there in Brecon and Radnorshire, enough for Farage to moan like a whore when the result is announced or is it another Slough general?

Have you burned your tory card yet? Or are you Team Blue for tonight?

I hope the crook loses tonight, it would send a terrible signal if he was elected.

The signal would be that Jane Dodds is so shit she can't even win a by-election against a convicted fraudster.

And she probably couldn't under other circumstances. She might just do it tonight but her performance looks set to be underwhelming.

This is a wider problem for the Lib Dems, especially post-2015: their talent pool. Some PPCs in what ought to be target seats (30th in the list or so) are simply not very good.

Having totally crap candidates doesn't seem to have held back the Tories or Labour much over the past 50 years or more.

Quite obviously so!

Most LD candidates come from local government, not glamorous but probably better preparation than being a kiss-arse SPAD.

If the result is now expected 1ish, wouldn’t that imply a lower turnout than usual?

And thanks for the welcomes and kind comments.

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

Corbyn is your albatross

Big_G_NorthWales said:

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

GIN1138 said:

Be interesting to see what happens to Labour here.

Could they drop into the hundreds?

As many as that !!!!

Although nobody will pay any attention to it, that is probably, from a national perspective, the key figure to watch,

The Lib Dems really have to win this tonight and win it well

They are up against a discredited conservative candidate and with a split brexit vote

They have sent an army of volunteers into the constituency and managed to persuade Plaid of all parties, and the Greens to stand down to collect the remain vote. Add in labour tactical voting it would be expected.

However a GE is a very different proposition as it is highly unlikely the other parties will give a free pass and of course by then Boris will have had to negate BP or he will not gain a majority and will struggle to lead a minority government

And to all labour supporters just imagine you had Yvette Cooper or Starmer or Benn you would not only win this seat but probably a majority at a GE

Corbyn is your albatross

You think Cooper or Starmer or Benn would get a 15 % swing to come through from third and take this seat? That's a pretty high assessment of their capabilities.

Or a realistic assessment of how poor the PM is. Just as he does well because he is up against Corbyn, a sensible Labour leader would do well against Johnson.

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

My prediction. Labour vote to crater. To both Brexit and Lib Dems. Giving the latter a win.
Wouldn't be surprised if overtures to La Farage were made tomorrow.

Labour votes alone won't do it for the Liberal Democrats, even if they all moved across. And given the nature of the Labour vote here, any defection or even any sign of defection to the Yellows should cause utter panic among Corbynistas.

Why? They are aware that voting LD cuts the government majority to one aren't they? They are also aware Labour isn't going to win aren't they? So why not? Third party vote gets squeezed happens regularly at by elections up and down the country when it is known to be close.
I know you will claim that the Labour vote here is mainly drawn from the Valleys, but they know the facts outlined above as well as anyone else.

Because they are so fucking tribal. They vote Labour, not for some abstract principle of government.

Have you ever been to Ystradgynlais? It really does feel like the end of the world sometimes. It's hard to think how it could be more remote from Westminster or how Westminster's constant squabbling could be less relevant to it.

So no, they will not be thinking like that.

Or if they do, the end of Labour is upon us.

I know all about mining areas. I grew up in one after all. Beating the Tories is as important, if not more so, than voting Labour.
Anyways, not long to go now till all will be revealed. We shall see...