politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound dr

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

In fact any flexibility we may have shown is now countered as we are seeking to be less flexible.

Raab is entirely correct there.

We are saying we are ready to talk, they are saying they're not, so we are the ones being more flexible.

We are saying the undemocratic backstop has to go [too right too!] but not being restrictive atm as to what replaces it. The EU are saying they insist the undemocratic backstop must stay, so they are being inflexible.

Saying that I want to change something and then claiming that makes me "more flexible" is doublespeak.

The EU agreed to the Backstop in order to avoid a trade border in the Irish Sea. The ERG and DUP don't want the Backstop, but why should the EU go back to the drawing board to please those two small groups? There is now general consensus that the Backstop is the best protection for the Good Friday Agreement.

If I were the EU I'd make it clear to BJ that the WA will not be changed. They know that most MPs are anti-BJ, and that No Deal will cause much more damage to the UK than to the EU, so any brinkmanship on BJ's part is bound to fail.

There is no "general consensus" whatsoever that's bollocks to quote the Lib Dems word of the moment. Parliament has not voted to reject BJ, it has 3 times rejected the WDA that is why they need to go back to the drawing board.

How does No Deal protect the GFA?

It breaches it - which will rapidly lead to the breaking up of the UK...

Slight problem, breaking up the UK without the consent of NI voters also breaches the GFA.

You should have thought of that before deciding that Great Britain absolutely has to leave the single market and customs union.

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

In fact any flexibility we may have shown is now countered as we are seeking to be less flexible.

Raab is entirely correct there.

We are saying we are ready to talk, they are saying they're not, so we are the ones being more flexible.

We are saying the undemocratic backstop has to go [too right too!] but not being restrictive atm as to what replaces it. The EU are saying they insist the undemocratic backstop must stay, so they are being inflexible.

Saying that I want to change something and then claiming that makes me "more flexible" is doublespeak.

The EU agreed to the Backstop in order to avoid a trade border in the Irish Sea. The ERG and DUP don't want the Backstop, but why should the EU go back to the drawing board to please those two small groups? There is now general consensus that the Backstop is the best protection for the Good Friday Agreement.

If I were the EU I'd make it clear to BJ that the WA will not be changed. They know that most MPs are anti-BJ, and that No Deal will cause much more damage to the UK than to the EU, so any brinkmanship on BJ's part is bound to fail.

There is no "general consensus" whatsoever that's bollocks to quote the Lib Dems word of the moment. Parliament has not voted to reject BJ, it has 3 times rejected the WDA that is why they need to go back to the drawing board.

How does No Deal protect the GFA?

It breaches it - which will rapidly lead to the breaking up of the UK...

Slight problem, breaking up the UK without the consent of NI voters also breaches the GFA.

You should have thought of that before deciding that Great Britain absolutely has to leave the single market and customs union.

It does. The GFA was based upon the principle of consent. Without consent to remain in the single market and customs union we need to leave. All of us, including NI.

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FrankBooth said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

Simple question. How many leavers do you actually speak to? And no, I'm not including social media drivel. You seem awfully keen on generalisations.

I live in one of the more Brexity areas of England now.

I suggest you read the thread and tell me then whether I am unfairly “generalising” about Leaver lunacy.

Yes. I only see HYUFD saying what you quoted, I certainly haven't. Do you think HYUFD represents all Leavers?

He’s not quite as bonkers as you.

I seem to be getting what I've been advocating for a long time at the moment. I feel like with Boris Johnson and his cabinet rejecting the undemocratic backstop - after me arguing here that the backstop was unforgivably undemocratic - that I am winning the argument.

The lunatics have taken over the asylum temporarily. The idea that suspending democracy is somehow more democratic than a freely negotiated agreement is deranged.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

OllyT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It really has become about any chance to bash the UK for a lot of people here. I wish you a speedy recovery.

There is a difference between bashing the UK and bashing what the Brexiteers are doing to the Uk

Not here there isn't. It's pitiable what certain peoples' posting personas have become. Can't be mentally healthy for one thing.

Despair at the downward slide of the country and its place in the world is the sign of a true patriot. Indeed nothing is more characteristic of a British patriot than complaining that the place is going to the dogs.

Despair is not a patriotic characteristic. Nor is exaggerated hysteria over currency fluctuations.

Under the last Labour government I bought a holiday home at something like 1.25 euros to the pound.

I sold it under the same Government at about 1.10 to the pound.

Can't remember people screaming about the end of the world then

just for context

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2010.html

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2012.html

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2011.html

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2013.html

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2014.html

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-EUR-spot-exchange-rates-history-2015.html

2015 stands out

Philip_Thompson said:

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

In fact any flexibility we may have shown is now countered as we are seeking to be less flexible.

Raab is entirely correct there.

We are saying we are ready to talk, they are saying they're not, so we are the ones being more flexible.

We are saying the undemocratic backstop has to go [too right too!] but not being restrictive atm as to what replaces it. The EU are saying they insist the undemocratic backstop must stay, so they are being inflexible.

Saying that I want to change something and then claiming that makes me "more flexible" is doublespeak.

The EU agreed to the Backstop in order to avoid a trade border in the Irish Sea. The ERG and DUP don't want the Backstop, but why should the EU go back to the drawing board to please those two small groups? There is now general consensus that the Backstop is the best protection for the Good Friday Agreement.

If I were the EU I'd make it clear to BJ that the WA will not be changed. They know that most MPs are anti-BJ, and that No Deal will cause much more damage to the UK than to the EU, so any brinkmanship on BJ's part is bound to fail.

There is no "general consensus" whatsoever that's bollocks to quote the Lib Dems word of the moment. Parliament has not voted to reject BJ, it has 3 times rejected the WDA that is why they need to go back to the drawing board.

How does No Deal protect the GFA?

It breaches it - which will rapidly lead to the breaking up of the UK...

Slight problem, breaking up the UK without the consent of NI voters also breaches the GFA.

You should have thought of that before deciding that Great Britain absolutely has to leave the single market and customs union.

It does. The GFA was based upon the principle of consent. Without consent to remain in the single market and customs union we need to leave. All of us, including NI.

We don’t need to leave. We can revoke Article 50. Suck it up.

@Philip_Thompson

We've had this discussion before[1] and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.

2010: 1.6150
2011: 1.5610
2012: 1.5507
2013: 1.6245
2014: 1.6554
2015: 1.5571
2016: 1.4740
2017: 1.2300
2018: 1.3490

4pm today: 1.2232
Approx 7:16pm BST: 1.2169 (spot)

Sources
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2017-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2018-01-01
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html

[1] See October 8 2016, 3:07pm post on http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1290724/#Comment_1290724
See also July 26 2017, 9:08pm post on http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1687053/#Comment_1687053
See also other posts, not specifically addressed to you

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FrankBooth said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

Simple question. How many leavers do you actually speak to? And no, I'm not including social media drivel. You seem awfully keen on generalisations.

I live in one of the more Brexity areas of England now.

I suggest you read the thread and tell me then whether I am unfairly “generalising” about Leaver lunacy.

Yes. I only see HYUFD saying what you quoted, I certainly haven't. Do you think HYUFD represents all Leavers?

He’s not quite as bonkers as you.

I seem to be getting what I've been advocating for a long time at the moment. I feel like with Boris Johnson and his cabinet rejecting the undemocratic backstop - after me arguing here that the backstop was unforgivably undemocratic - that I am winning the argument.

The lunatics have taken over the asylum temporarily. The idea that suspending democracy is somehow more democratic than a freely negotiated agreement is deranged.

The backstop suspends democracy.

If we are in the backstop then at which election would I participate to elect representatives to determine EU laws we would be obliged to implement?

If its a choice between Parliament being suspended for 3 weeks, or in perpetuity, then one is bad the other is completely unacceptable.

noneoftheabove said:

Trump on wine.

"I’ve always said American wine is better than French wine!"

When pointed out that he is teetotal so it is a strange prefence:

“I just like the way they look. American wines are great.”

Trump is teetotal? Really?!!! You mean he comes out with all this crazy stuff when he's sober?!!

Are we sure that's not teetotal in the same way a certain Iranian president with slurred speech and a yellow skin was teetotal?

Or does he suffer from sciatica?

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1156270550026719240

TheScreamingEagles said:

I spent the weekend in Blackpool.

I'd sooner eat a pizza covered in pineapple than ever go back again.

Give me Milano, Amsterdam, et al any day.

PS - If anyone says they have pictures of me eating Blackpool Cock Rocks then it is fake news.

That’s a class argument, not a location argument. The tattoos, missing teeth and hitting children in public demographic can be found around Europe.

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

"British people’s horizons are literally shrinking."

The Earth is getting smaller? Wow! If only we'd known.

The people of the UK, or anywhere else for that matter, are not going to be constrained by stupid politics. I understand what you're saying, and I even have a degree of sympathy for it - perhaps we have to work harder to discover our big family, but discover we will.

Of course you're right to worry about all sorts of things like freedom of opportunity, but there's not a chance that small impediments obstruct adventure.

When a Leaver on thread is advocating Skegness as a substitute for Sardinia for the summer holiday, something is going seriously wrong with Leaver wiring. The small impediments seem to be located between Leavers’ ears.

I know several people who have been to Skegness but nobody who has been to Sardinia.

For that matter I've never heard anyone extol Sardinia as a holiday destination.

Lots of places in Italy certainly but never Sardinia.

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FrankBooth said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

Simple question. How many leavers do you actually speak to? And no, I'm not including social media drivel. You seem awfully keen on generalisations.

I live in one of the more Brexity areas of England now.

I suggest you read the thread and tell me then whether I am unfairly “generalising” about Leaver lunacy.

Yes. I only see HYUFD saying what you quoted, I certainly haven't. Do you think HYUFD represents all Leavers?

He’s not quite as bonkers as you.

I seem to be getting what I've been advocating for a long time at the moment. I feel like with Boris Johnson and his cabinet rejecting the undemocratic backstop - after me arguing here that the backstop was unforgivably undemocratic - that I am winning the argument.

The lunatics have taken over the asylum temporarily. The idea that suspending democracy is somehow more democratic than a freely negotiated agreement is deranged.

The backstop suspends democracy.

If we are in the backstop then at which election would I participate to elect representatives to determine EU laws we would be obliged to implement?

If its a choice between Parliament being suspended for 3 weeks, or in perpetuity, then one is bad the other is completely unacceptable.

1) it’s not three weeks, it would inflict irreversible damage.

2) the backstop is not in perpetuity.

And you complain that Leavers are traduced when I say they’re deranged?

YBarddCwsc said:

viewcode said:

HYUFD said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

Loving the "making you too poor to afford a holiday abroad is actually a good thing" takes from the more monomaniacal leavers.

Having a holiday in Pembrokeshire and dining on plenty of tasty Welsh lamb will be something we can all look forward to post Brexit

As a child I spent many holiday on Gower and Pembrokeshire. My abiding memory is sitting inside all day watching the rain pouring down and inedible restaurant meals. I grant you that the food may have improved

There are some excellent pubs and restaurants in Pembrokeshire and as the heatwave last week showed even some sunshine.

No Deal Brexit will offer us all the chance to discover again the delightful British seaside resorts and countryside and dine on tasty British beef, pork and lamb maybe washed down with an English sparkling wine

Last week I pointed out that the logical end point of Brexit was me eating warm piss sandwiches in the rain at the top of Helvellyn whilst a rich Leaver lectured me on patriotism from a laptop in their Aspen/Alpine holiday home.

I really didn't expect you to get out and push...

Your vision does seem at odds with the thread, where it is prominent Remainers who are bitching about rain and holidays in the UK, and longing for their sunshine in the Alps or Aspen.

Although it would be amusing to do a pb poll of second homes, I do think Remainers would win it rather handily.

I've been keeping one in my head. If we include those resident overseas as well as those with second/holiday homes outside, Leavers win. However, the notable thing is the actual number, not the split: many, and possibly most, of our happy band have residencies, holiday homes, or passports, for other countries. It's so noticable I'm at a loss to explain it.

If anyone wants a higher exchange rate for sterling then perhaps they'd like to contribute by:

1) Creating more wealth
2) Improving their productivity
3) Living within their means
4) Increasing their savings rates

Until then its excellent news that wealth creators and exporters in this country are getting a boost.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1156270550026719240

But we were told only last night that Varadkar isn't very bright and that his handling of the backstop only had approval of 43-27% in the Republic. I guess they'll be back on the German car manufacturers tonight.

I am greatly amused by the "undemocratic backstop" guff being spun by Shagger and his cabinet. The Back Stop protects the Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty signed in law by the UK following refereda on both sides of the Irish border.

Abrogating both the international treaty and the referendum in Norniron is undemocratic.

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

In fact any flexibility we may have shown is now countered as we are seeking to be less flexible.

Raab is entirely correct there.

We are saying we are ready to talk, they are saying they're not, so we are the ones being more flexible.

We are saying the undemocratic backstop has to go [too right too!] but not being restrictive atm as to what replaces it. The EU are saying they insist the undemocratic backstop must stay, so they are being inflexible.

Saying that I want to change something and then claiming that makes me "more flexible" is doublespeak.

The EU agreed to the Backstop in order to avoid a trade border in the Irish Sea. The ERG and DUP don't want the Backstop, but why should the EU go back to the drawing board to please those two small groups? There is now general consensus that the Backstop is the best protection for the Good Friday Agreement.

If I were the EU I'd make it clear to BJ that the WA will not be changed. They know that most MPs are anti-BJ, and that No Deal will cause much more damage to the UK than to the EU, so any brinkmanship on BJ's part is bound to fail.

There is no "general consensus" whatsoever that's bollocks to quote the Lib Dems word of the moment. Parliament has not voted to reject BJ, it has 3 times rejected the WDA that is why they need to go back to the drawing board.

How does No Deal protect the GFA?

It's only Hard Brexiters in their Mail/Telegraph bubble who don't understand that almost everyone is in favour of the Backstop apart from them. The WA wasn't defeated because of the Backstop but because Corbyn told his MPs not to vote for a Tory Brexit.

It's still unlikely that No Deal will happen (see my previous message) but if it does, BJ (or the new PM) will negotiate something similar to the Backstop in its wake.

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1156270550026719240

But we were told only last night that Varadkar isn't very bright and that his handling of the backstop only had approval of 43-27% in the Republic. I guess they'll be back on the German car manufacturers tonight.

You're dealing with idiots who think the backstop is worse than than the potato famine(s).

RochdalePioneers said:

I am greatly amused by the "undemocratic backstop" guff being spun by Shagger and his cabinet. The Back Stop protects the Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty signed in law by the UK following refereda on both sides of the Irish border.

Abrogating both the international treaty and the referendum in Norniron is undemocratic.

The backstop also enjoys substantial majority support in Northern Ireland.

Luckyguy1983 said:

OllyT said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It really has become about any chance to bash the UK for a lot of people here. I wish you a speedy recovery.

There is a difference between bashing the UK and bashing what the Brexiteers are doing to the Uk

Not here there isn't. It's pitiable what certain peoples' posting personas have become. Can't be mentally healthy for one thing.

What on earth makes you think that being critical of the country you live in is mentally unhealthy? The UK is OK, there are worse places to be and there are also better places to be.

Interesting graph of tree planting rates in the UK:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-47541491

It seems to have fallen precipitously during the Blair-Brown years.

Another example of the none investment of the Labour government.

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Dadge said:

HYUFD said:

glw said:

williamglenn said:

Fearless Boris.

https://twitter.com/itvwales/status/1156204777941950465?s=21

Boris will campaign like May in a general election, flitting between safe spaces, and avoiding the press and debates.

Boris did debates in the leadership election and referendum and has been campaigning across the UK since. He is a far better campaigner than May but it was the dementia tax that cost May her majority, which Boris opposed, not stage managed appearances

It was a combination of factors. Labour support went up by 2% a week for six weeks. May's poor performance was the big issue in two of those weeks.

The biggest bounces in Labour support came from Corbyn's manifesto giveaway and May's disastrous dementia tax announcement coupled with scrapping free school meals

Do you approve of Boris copying the giveaway ?

He’s too accomplished a bullshitter to put it in writing, but the manifesto is out there.

If Boris blows the budget then no I don't approve it. If he picks a few targetted areas to raise spending on, like governments always do, then that is responsible.

People are acting with mock horror that Boris has priorities. As if Osborne, Cameron, May and Hammond didn't have priorities too. The difference with Corbyn is he doesn't have priorities, he wants to spend money on everything.

Which are ?

Police was a primary example.

No, it wasn’t.
It will take years to recruit 20,000.
He will (assuming he remains in government) have spaffed away many, many times that money on other ‘priorities’.

You wonder a bit as well whether he's put aside the £2 billion a year that will be needed, or whether he has accepted Diane Abbott's figure of £10 a year wages and walking around stark naked.

HYUFD said:

Fenman said:

HYUFD said:

OllyT said:

HYUFD said:

Anorak said:

Loving the "making you too poor to afford a holiday abroad is actually a good thing" takes from the more monomaniacal leavers.

Having a holiday in Pembrokeshire and dining on plenty of tasty Welsh lamb will be something we can all look forward to post Brexit

As a child I spent many holiday on Gower and Pembrokeshire. My abiding memory is sitting inside all day watching the rain pouring down and inedible restaurant meals. I grant you that the food may have improved

There are some excellent pubs and restaurants in Pembrokeshire and as the heatwave last week showed even some sunshine.

No Deal Brexit will offer us all the chance to discover again the delightful British seaside resorts and countryside and dine on tasty British beef, pork and lamb maybe washed down with an English sparkling wine

If they haven't closed...

Margate, Skegness, Bath, Southend, Bournemouth, Brighton, Blackpool, Eastbourne, Pembrokeshire, Devon and Cornwall and the Lake District could all see a mini boom from No Deal as the low value of the £ sees many more Brits decide it is cheaper to holiday at home for the next year or two and actually discovering they quite like it

More likely that it reminds them of why they don't do it more often. There are plenty of places to go for a pleasant long weekend if the weather is OK but I would seriously consider ending it all if I were told I had to spend the rest of my life stuck in the UK.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FrankBooth said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

Simple question. How many leavers do you actually speak to? And no, I'm not including social media drivel. You seem awfully keen on generalisations.

I live in one of the more Brexity areas of England now.

I suggest you read the thread and tell me then whether I am unfairly “generalising” about Leaver lunacy.

Yes. I only see HYUFD saying what you quoted, I certainly haven't. Do you think HYUFD represents all Leavers?

He’s not quite as bonkers as you.

I seem to be getting what I've been advocating for a long time at the moment. I feel like with Boris Johnson and his cabinet rejecting the undemocratic backstop - after me arguing here that the backstop was unforgivably undemocratic - that I am winning the argument.

The lunatics have taken over the asylum temporarily. The idea that suspending democracy is somehow more democratic than a freely negotiated agreement is deranged.

The backstop suspends democracy.

If we are in the backstop then at which election would I participate to elect representatives to determine EU laws we would be obliged to implement?

If its a choice between Parliament being suspended for 3 weeks, or in perpetuity, then one is bad the other is completely unacceptable.

You are one of the few Leavers I know of who believes the EU is a representative democracy.

It has elections to elect representatives, of course it is.

That's not the problem with the EU.

Fair enough. As I say, you’re one of the few who does believe the EU is a democracy. It’s an interesting view. Right up there with the UK will be less free than Ireland ever was under British rule if the backstop comes into force.

eek said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

https://twitter.com/marksugruek/status/1155957402312663041

If you don't understand how technology works there you don't understand the proposals.

Technology works differently there? Is that the leprechauns messing up the byte order?

As I do understand how Technology works (it's my job) hopefully Philip can tell me how the technological border plans solve the bad agents problem...

Make being a bad agent a criminal offence that will be prosecuted under the law if it is proven. Same as other tax fraud cases.

You don't seek to prevent bad agents from being possible, you seek to punish them if they are found and proven thus deterring people from doing it voluntarily.

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Dadge said:

HYUFD said:

glw said:

williamglenn said:

Fearless Boris.

https://twitter.com/itvwales/status/1156204777941950465?s=21

Boris will campaign like May in a general election, flitting between safe spaces, and avoiding the press and debates.

Boris did debates in the leadership election and referendum and has been campaigning across the UK since. He is a far better campaigner than May but it was the dementia tax that cost May her majority, which Boris opposed, not stage managed appearances

It was a combination of factors. Labour support went up by 2% a week for six weeks. May's poor performance was the big issue in two of those weeks.

The biggest bounces in Labour support came from Corbyn's manifesto giveaway and May's disastrous dementia tax announcement coupled with scrapping free school meals

Do you approve of Boris copying the giveaway ?

He’s too accomplished a bullshitter to put it in writing, but the manifesto is out there.

If Boris blows the budget then no I don't approve it. If he picks a few targetted areas to raise spending on, like governments always do, then that is responsible.

People are acting with mock horror that Boris has priorities. As if Osborne, Cameron, May and Hammond didn't have priorities too. The difference with Corbyn is he doesn't have priorities, he wants to spend money on everything.

Which are ?

Police was a primary example.

No, it wasn’t.
It will take years to recruit 20,000.
He will (assuming he remains in government) have spaffed away many, many times that money on other ‘priorities’.

You wonder a bit as well whether he's put aside the £2 billion a year that will be needed, or whether he has accepted Diane Abbott's figure of £10 a year wages and walking around stark naked.

To be fair it might be possible for the destitute sheep farmers to retrain as plod. Might come handy for the civil unrest.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

FrankBooth said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

Simple question. How many leavers do you actually speak to? And no, I'm not including social media drivel. You seem awfully keen on generalisations.

I live in one of the more Brexity areas of England now.

I suggest you read the thread and tell me then whether I am unfairly “generalising” about Leaver lunacy.

Yes. I only see HYUFD saying what you quoted, I certainly haven't. Do you think HYUFD represents all Leavers?

He’s not quite as bonkers as you.

I seem to be getting what I've been advocating for a long time at the moment. I feel like with Boris Johnson and his cabinet rejecting the undemocratic backstop - after me arguing here that the backstop was unforgivably undemocratic - that I am winning the argument.

The lunatics have taken over the asylum temporarily. The idea that suspending democracy is somehow more democratic than a freely negotiated agreement is deranged.

The backstop suspends democracy.

If we are in the backstop then at which election would I participate to elect representatives to determine EU laws we would be obliged to implement?

If its a choice between Parliament being suspended for 3 weeks, or in perpetuity, then one is bad the other is completely unacceptable.

You are one of the few Leavers I know of who believes the EU is a representative democracy.

It has elections to elect representatives, of course it is.

That's not the problem with the EU.

Fair enough. As I say, you’re one of the few who does believe the EU is a democracy. It’s an interesting view. Right up there with the UK will be less free than Ireland ever was under British rule if the backstop comes into force.

The Irish had MPs, we won't have MEPs.

No laws without representation. I'm also of the view that 2 wrong's don't make a right, are you?

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

Dadge said:

HYUFD said:

glw said:

williamglenn said:

Fearless Boris.

https://twitter.com/itvwales/status/1156204777941950465?s=21

Boris will campaign like May in a general election, flitting between safe spaces, and avoiding the press and debates.

Boris did debates in the leadership election and referendum and has been campaigning across the UK since. He is a far better campaigner than May but it was the dementia tax that cost May her majority, which Boris opposed, not stage managed appearances

It was a combination of factors. Labour support went up by 2% a week for six weeks. May's poor performance was the big issue in two of those weeks.

The biggest bounces in Labour support came from Corbyn's manifesto giveaway and May's disastrous dementia tax announcement coupled with scrapping free school meals

Do you approve of Boris copying the giveaway ?

He’s too accomplished a bullshitter to put it in writing, but the manifesto is out there.

If Boris blows the budget then no I don't approve it. If he picks a few targetted areas to raise spending on, like governments always do, then that is responsible.

People are acting with mock horror that Boris has priorities. As if Osborne, Cameron, May and Hammond didn't have priorities too. The difference with Corbyn is he doesn't have priorities, he wants to spend money on everything.

Which are ?

Police was a primary example.

No, it wasn’t.
It will take years to recruit 20,000.
He will (assuming he remains in government) have spaffed away many, many times that money on other ‘priorities’.

You wonder a bit as well whether he's put aside the £2 billion a year that will be needed, or whether he has accepted Diane Abbott's figure of £10 a year wages and walking around stark naked.

To be fair it might be possible for the destitute sheep farmers to retrain as plod. Might come handy for the civil unrest.

Or could we solve the whole problem by using sheep for law enforcement?

They could hardly be worse than certain senior officers of the Met.

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am greatly amused by the "undemocratic backstop" guff being spun by Shagger and his cabinet. The Back Stop protects the Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty signed in law by the UK following refereda on both sides of the Irish border.

Abrogating both the international treaty and the referendum in Norniron is undemocratic.

The backstop also enjoys substantial majority support in Northern Ireland.

Amongst the Unionist community?

Or on a Sectarian basis?

You can’t get a majority in Northern Ireland without Unionist support.

OK show me a poll showing Unionist rather than Sectarian support for the backstop then.

[delete humblebrag]

Lol

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1156222342613413888?s=19

viewcode said:

[delete humblebrag]

Too late - I've quoted it

Avoiding PB and politics, but hard to avoid the bluster and spending promises streaming out of this number 10. Does not bode well for the future. Bullshit then bankruptcy.

eek said:

the customs and excess

That is brilliant

SouthamObserver said:

For the vast majority of the 600+ years the British ruled Ireland the vast majority of Irish people had absolutely no say in any aspect of the decision-making process.

I am happy to forego having an elected representative capable of ratifying or rejecting the kinds of laws the EU passes for a relatively brief period of time if it helps keep peace in Northern Ireland and delivers greater prosperity for the UK generally. I will be safe in the knowledge that the laws and regulations that actually affect my day to day life will be set at the Westminster and local level where I will have elected representatives.

It is worth pointing out that until 1918 that was true of most people in England as well.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am greatly amused by the "undemocratic backstop" guff being spun by Shagger and his cabinet. The Back Stop protects the Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty signed in law by the UK following refereda on both sides of the Irish border.

Abrogating both the international treaty and the referendum in Norniron is undemocratic.

The backstop also enjoys substantial majority support in Northern Ireland.

Amongst the Unionist community?

Or on a Sectarian basis?

You can’t get a majority in Northern Ireland without Unionist support.

OK show me a poll showing Unionist rather than Sectarian support for the backstop then.

The Euro election result.

Andrew said:

Alistair said:

Lol

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1156222342613413888?s=19

BoR for VP?

That really would be a more liberal approach from Trump.

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1156270550026719240

Too right too for an Irish politician to be backing Ireland. Wouldn't it be nice if the Leader of the Opposition here backed our PM up when he is fighting for Britain?

Won't see that any time soon.

The Martin quote is nonsense. Boris is declining the precondition of the backstop. The preconditions come from the other side, who know our parliament - not just Boris - won't accept it. Sounds like they want us to crash out.

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

I am greatly amused by the "undemocratic backstop" guff being spun by Shagger and his cabinet. The Back Stop protects the Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty signed in law by the UK following refereda on both sides of the Irish border.

Abrogating both the international treaty and the referendum in Norniron is undemocratic.

The backstop also enjoys substantial majority support in Northern Ireland.

Amongst the Unionist community?

Or on a Sectarian basis?

NI wants remain; (including the DUP) only thus can they enjoy every aspect of having and eating cake, much of it at Britain's expense.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Ishmael_Z said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

https://twitter.com/marksugruek/status/1155957402312663041

If you don't understand how technology works there you don't understand the proposals.

Technology works differently there? Is that the leprechauns messing up the byte order?

As I do understand how Technology works (it's my job) hopefully Philip can tell me how the technological border plans solve the bad agents problem...

Make being a bad agent a criminal offence that will be prosecuted under the law if it is proven. Same as other tax fraud cases.

You don't seek to prevent bad agents from being possible, you seek to punish them if they are found and proven thus deterring people from doing it voluntarily.

That already exists - remember HMRC's extreme entry powers comes from the customs and excise part of their past.

and even those powers didn't solve carousel fraud which still occurs even after VAT rules were changed to fix it..

So?

Bad agents exist in all walks of life. The key is not to be so authoritarian that bad agents can't exist, the key is to balance risk v rewards in maximising liberties while minimising bad agents.

If some bad agents continue to exist that is an acceptable risk to prevent a hard border in my eyes. Is it not in yours?

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

For the vast majority of the 600+ years the British ruled Ireland the vast majority of Irish people had absolutely no say in any aspect of the decision-making process.

I am happy to forego having an elected representative capable of ratifying or rejecting the kinds of laws the EU passes for a relatively brief period of time if it helps keep peace in Northern Ireland and delivers greater prosperity for the UK generally. I will be safe in the knowledge that the laws and regulations that actually affect my day to day life will be set at the Westminster and local level where I will have elected representatives.

It is worth pointing out that until 1918 that was true of most people in England as well.

Of course.

Wow. Just saw Cummings’s remarks about the Tories. They’re incendiary and will surely feature on every opposition poster.

Stark_Dawning said:

Wow. Just saw Cummings’s remarks about the Tories. They’re incendiary and will surely feature on every opposition poster.

Is there anyone who still thinks he's a great intellect with a cavalier approach to the facts rather than an arrogant imbecile?

SouthamObserver said:

For the vast majority of the 600+ years the British ruled Ireland the vast majority of Irish people had absolutely no say in any aspect of the decision-making process.

I am happy to forego having an elected representative capable of ratifying or rejecting the kinds of laws the EU passes for a relatively brief period of time if it helps keep peace in Northern Ireland and delivers greater prosperity for the UK generally. I will be safe in the knowledge that the laws and regulations that actually affect my day to day life will be set at the Westminster and local level where I will have elected representatives.

That's got nothing to do with Ireland and everything to do with being a less democratic age than now.

Are you happy to set that as the bar and turn the clock back to being even less democratic than that? Because women and the poor couldn't vote in the past is that justification for saying they shouldn't vote now?

You may be happy to forego having an elected representative - good for you - I'm not and it is my fundamental human right to have one in my own country. And just because on a sectarian basis almost every single republican in NI backs it does not mean that it should be applied over the objection of the vast majority of unionists.

Philip_Thompson said:

maaarsh said:

eek said:

maaarsh said:

eek said:

maaarsh said:

Appreciate I'm very late to the party, but the idea that a weak pound is going to put pressure on Boris is incredibly one eyed.

The entire point of his strategy is to convince people he really means to no deal, so the EU reconsider their position under some actual jeopardy rather than assuming we'll take whatever is on offer.

A weak pound means it's working, at least for the markets (which is a different thing to saying it's the right strategy).

And given that the EU regard No Deal as the equivalent of trying to save money on a heart transplant by doing it yourself - exactly how does Boris's self inflicted stupidity get the EU back at the table...

Because it would be pretty shit for them too. As I said - not defending the strategy, just pointing out that this threader rather missed that this is a perfectly deliberate outcome.

But no matter how bad it is for them - we will be in a worse position...

And if we're crazy enough to do that, that stops it being bad for them how?

Ultimately the EU position is basically crazy. The backstop supposedly exists to prevent adverse outcomes if there's no deal at the end of a 2 year standstill period. And they're so determined to defend this that they're willing to cause no deal right now?

It's a game of chicken and the falling pound is a sign of a success for Boris in getting some people to believe he means what he says.

Exactly! That's what I've been saying for the past year now.

Their position is utterly illogical.

It’s absolutely logical IF you think the U.K. will cave

viewcode said:

@Philip_Thompson

We've had this discussion before[1] and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.

2010: 1.6150
2011: 1.5610
2012: 1.5507
2013: 1.6245
2014: 1.6554
2015: 1.5571
2016: 1.4740
2017: 1.2300
2018: 1.3490

4pm today: 1.2232
Approx 7:16pm BST: 1.2169 (spot)

Sources
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2017-01-01
h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2018-01-01
h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-07_10_2016-exchange-rate-history.html

[1] See October 8 2016, 3:07pm post on http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1290724/#Comment_1290724
See also July 26 2017, 9:08pm post on http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1687053/#Comment_1687053
See also other posts, not specifically addressed to you

This doesn't back you up. The fact is the change is actually minimal and within regular variations.

Go back to the previous decade and you will see similar variations. I'm pretty sure in the 80s you'd see even bigger ones.

PS interesting that in your [1] quote I had said the correct pre-referendum baseline was more like $1.45 and you've got $1.4740 which is last I checked very close to $1.45 and closer [marginally] to $1.45 than $1.50

The EU will erect a border in Ireland @Philip_Thompson because they know the blame and backlash will be levied entirely on the British and you know what, rightly so.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

SouthamObserver said:

For the vast majority of the 600+ years the British ruled Ireland the vast majority of Irish people had absolutely no say in any aspect of the decision-making process.

I am happy to forego having an elected representative capable of ratifying or rejecting the kinds of laws the EU passes for a relatively brief period of time if it helps keep peace in Northern Ireland and delivers greater prosperity for the UK generally. I will be safe in the knowledge that the laws and regulations that actually affect my day to day life will be set at the Westminster and local level where I will have elected representatives.

It is worth pointing out that until 1918 that was true of most people in England as well.

The country has gone to the dogs since we started giving the vote to the poor and plebs.

We need to restrict the franchise not widen it.

You are General Jonathan Peel and I claim my £5.

He was right on the Reform Act of 1867.

IanB2 said:

Stark_Dawning said:

The NI stuff is starting to look significant. I don’t know about Cummings, but Boris wants to be loved, and being responsible for the return of violence and chaos is hardly compatible with that. I think a way will be found allowing Boris to cave without being too embarrassing for Boris.

For that latter, there isn’t any other than being forced. I think Boris intends to give the impression that he’s ploughing towards no deal, knowing he’ll be stopped by MPs and then he can cynically play the “we was robbed” card.

His risk is that by the time he is robbed, the fear will have ramped up to the point where most sensible folk are relieved, not outraged.

Or MPs fail to thread the needle, and we no deal by default.