Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound dr

123457»

Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Omnium said:

    Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

    "British people’s horizons are literally shrinking."

    The Earth is getting smaller? Wow! If only we'd known.

    The people of the UK, or anywhere else for that matter, are not going to be constrained by stupid politics. I understand what you're saying, and I even have a degree of sympathy for it - perhaps we have to work harder to discover our big family, but discover we will.

    Of course you're right to worry about all sorts of things like freedom of opportunity, but there's not a chance that small impediments obstruct adventure.

    When a Leaver on thread is advocating Skegness as a substitute for Sardinia for the summer holiday, something is going seriously wrong with Leaver wiring. The small impediments seem to be located between Leavers’ ears.
    I know several people who have been to Skegness but nobody who has been to Sardinia.

    For that matter I've never heard anyone extol Sardinia as a holiday destination.

    Lots of places in Italy certainly but never Sardinia.
    I've been to Sardinia. It is wonderful.

    Wha were you doing in such a playground for the super rich? ;)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    ydoethur said:

    Trump on wine.

    "I’ve always said American wine is better than French wine!"

    When pointed out that he is teetotal so it is a strange prefence:

    “I just like the way they look. American wines are great.”

    Trump is teetotal? Really?!!! You mean he comes out with all this crazy stuff when he's sober?!!

    Are we sure that's not teetotal in the same way a certain Iranian president with slurred speech and a yellow skin was teetotal?

    Or does he suffer from sciatica?
    No, he is genuinely teetotal, and has been for many years. He had an elder brother who was the heir presumptive that threw away his good fortune and eventually his life via alcoholism. Trump noted it.

    Trump is often thought of as a fool, but he isn't. He isn't stupid, nor lazy. He's basically Michael to his brother's Sonny. What he isn't is nice
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653

    For the vast majority of the 600+ years the British ruled Ireland the vast majority of Irish people had absolutely no say in any aspect of the decision-making process.

    I am happy to forego having an elected representative capable of ratifying or rejecting the kinds of laws the EU passes for a relatively brief period of time if it helps keep peace in Northern Ireland and delivers greater prosperity for the UK generally. I will be safe in the knowledge that the laws and regulations that actually affect my day to day life will be set at the Westminster and local level where I will have elected representatives.

    That's got nothing to do with Ireland and everything to do with being a less democratic age than now.

    Are you happy to set that as the bar and turn the clock back to being even less democratic than that? Because women and the poor couldn't vote in the past is that justification for saying they shouldn't vote now?

    You may be happy to forego having an elected representative - good for you - I'm not and it is my fundamental human right to have one in my own country. And just because on a sectarian basis almost every single republican in NI backs it does not mean that it should be applied over the objection of the vast majority of unionists.

    You said the UK would be less free with the backstop than Ireland ever was under British rule. That is palpable nonsense.

    You cannot get a majority in Northern Ireland solely with Republicans. If you could there would be no backstop problem.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited July 2019
    @viewcode also interesting that you wrote today:

    "4pm today: 1.2232
    Approx 7:16pm BST: 1.2169 (spot)"

    Yet in October 2016 you wrote:
    Yesterday: 1.2436

    I think you have accidentally demonstrated that there hasn't been any change overall in recent years. Our sterling level that some here are hysterically discussing is no different to that we were discussing not two but nearly THREE years ago now.

    Thanks for proving my point.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903

    Foxy said:

    Dadge said:
    If you don't understand how technology works there you don't understand the proposals.
    If the technology works then there need be no fear of the backstop.
    There is if the backstop is a trap and not there in good faith. Which is backed up by their intransigence and illogical insistence upon it.
    How is it a trap when there are technology solutions which mean there will never be the need for a border? If they exist then both sides can implement them and the back stop never comes into effect.

    Oh yeah, because there is no technology solution and leavers are talking rampant bollocks.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    Appreciate I'm very late to the party, but the idea that a weak pound is going to put pressure on Boris is incredibly one eyed.

    The entire point of his strategy is to convince people he really means to no deal, so the EU reconsider their position under some actual jeopardy rather than assuming we'll take whatever is on offer.

    A weak pound means it's working, at least for the markets (which is a different thing to saying it's the right strategy).

    And given that the EU regard No Deal as the equivalent of trying to save money on a heart transplant by doing it yourself - exactly how does Boris's self inflicted stupidity get the EU back at the table...
    Because it would be pretty shit for them too. As I said - not defending the strategy, just pointing out that this threader rather missed that this is a perfectly deliberate outcome.
    But no matter how bad it is for them - we will be in a worse position...
    And if we're crazy enough to do that, that stops it being bad for them how?

    Ultimately the EU position is basically crazy. The backstop supposedly exists to prevent adverse outcomes if there's no deal at the end of a 2 year standstill period. And they're so determined to defend this that they're willing to cause no deal right now?

    It's a game of chicken and the falling pound is a sign of a success for Boris in getting some people to believe he means what he says.
    Exactly! That's what I've been saying for the past year now.

    Their position is utterly illogical.
    It’s absolutely logical IF you think the U.K. will cave
    The ultimate logical move in a game of chicken is to make sure the other party sees as you superglue your accelerator to the floor and throw the steering wheel out of the window.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    The EU will erect a border in Ireland @Philip_Thompson because they know the blame and backlash will be levied entirely on the British and you know what, rightly so.

    I can live with that.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    The fact is that the British have created a problem that did not exist before, for no reason at all.

    The whole of the world thinks its our fault (which it is) and when the border goes up in Ireland all the backlash will be aimed directly at us.

    No amount of tantrums will change that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Omnium said:

    For the vast majority of the 600+ years the British ruled Ireland the vast majority of Irish people had absolutely no say in any aspect of the decision-making process.

    I am happy to forego having an elected representative capable of ratifying or rejecting the kinds of laws the EU passes for a relatively brief period of time if it helps keep peace in Northern Ireland and delivers greater prosperity for the UK generally. I will be safe in the knowledge that the laws and regulations that actually affect my day to day life will be set at the Westminster and local level where I will have elected representatives.

    That's got nothing to do with Ireland and everything to do with being a less democratic age than now.

    Are you happy to set that as the bar and turn the clock back to being even less democratic than that? Because women and the poor couldn't vote in the past is that justification for saying they shouldn't vote now?

    You may be happy to forego having an elected representative - good for you - I'm not and it is my fundamental human right to have one in my own country. And just because on a sectarian basis almost every single republican in NI backs it does not mean that it should be applied over the objection of the vast majority of unionists.
    How do you know you have these fundamental human rights?

    I don't believe that you do have them, I don't believe that I do either.

    What you do have is the right to try to assert that you have such rights.

    Unfortunately I think that this has not merit.
    https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/index.html
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903

    The EU will erect a border in Ireland @Philip_Thompson because they know the blame and backlash will be levied entirely on the British and you know what, rightly so.

    We will both have to erect a border - the EU will require a hard external border, and the WTO will require a physical checked border. Yes I know that leavers insist the EU will never do such a thing and that the WTO don't require such a thing. But as they are talking utter bollocks we can set their views aside.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    The EU will erect a border in Ireland @Philip_Thompson because they know the blame and backlash will be levied entirely on the British and you know what, rightly so.

    I can live with that.
    Not when we go crawling back to the EU with our tail between our legs begging for scraps.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    Taking back control, eh?...

    No-deal Brexit up to the EU, says Boris Johnson on first Welsh visit
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-49151870
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Wow. Just saw Cummings’s remarks about the Tories. They’re incendiary and will surely feature on every opposition poster.

    Johnson adviser said "Tories do not care about poor people or NHS "

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    The NI stuff is starting to look significant. I don’t know about Cummings, but Boris wants to be loved, and being responsible for the return of violence and chaos is hardly compatible with that. I think a way will be found allowing Boris to cave without being too embarrassing for Boris.

    For that latter, there isn’t any other than being forced. I think Boris intends to give the impression that he’s ploughing towards no deal, knowing he’ll be stopped by MPs and then he can cynically play the “we was robbed” card.

    His risk is that by the time he is robbed, the fear will have ramped up to the point where most sensible folk are relieved, not outraged.
    Or MPs fail to thread the needle, and we no deal by default.
    Few will love Bozo for that, so that route fails the OP’s test.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    @viewcode also interesting that you wrote today:

    "4pm today: 1.2232
    Approx 7:16pm BST: 1.2169 (spot)"

    Yet in October 2016 you wrote:
    Yesterday: 1.2436

    I think you have accidentally demonstrated that there hasn't been any change recently. Our sterling level that we are hysterically discussing is no different to that we were discussing not two but nearly THREE years ago now.

    Thanks for proving my point.

    You picked two datapoints that were similar. That's why I gave several. However, it is a good excuse to post them again, which I shall do below.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited July 2019
    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    Appreciate I'm very late to the party, but the idea that a weak pound is going to put pressure on Boris is incredibly one eyed.

    The entire point of his strategy is to convince people he really means to no deal, so the EU reconsider their position under some actual jeopardy rather than assuming we'll take whatever is on offer.

    A weak pound means it's working, at least for the markets (which is a different thing to saying it's the right strategy).

    And given that the EU regard No Deal as the equivalent of trying to save money on a heart transplant by doing it yourself - exactly how does Boris's self inflicted stupidity get the EU back at the table...
    Because it would be pretty shit for them too. As I said - not defending the strategy, just pointing out that this threader rather missed that this is a perfectly deliberate outcome.
    But no matter how bad it is for them - we will be in a worse position...
    And if we're crazy enough to do that, that stops it being bad for them how?

    Ultimately the EU position is basically crazy. The backstop supposedly exists to prevent adverse outcomes if there's no deal at the end of a 2 year standstill period. And they're so determined to defend this that they're willing to cause no deal right now?

    It's a game of chicken and the falling pound is a sign of a success for Boris in getting some people to believe he means what he says.
    Exactly! That's what I've been saying for the past year now.

    Their position is utterly illogical.
    It’s absolutely logical IF you think the U.K. will cave
    And the UK will cave (edit/and doesn’t have any punctuation). The game of chicken is between Bozo’s cabinet of ultras and the rest of Parliament.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Varadkar chose this strategy because he was concerned about being outflanked by Sinn Fein.

    Fine Fail faces the same risk (the political charge of “disloyalty”)

    This was *exactly* why Varadkar made such a stupid mistake when he tried to play the border for domestic political advantage.

    If he’d continued with Enda Kenny’s approach we’d all be in a better place
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dadge said:
    If you don't understand how technology works there you don't understand the proposals.
    Technology works differently there? Is that the leprechauns messing up the byte order?
    What percentage of U.K.-Eire trade crosses the border at the point in the image?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Omnium said:

    Thanks to Brexit, British people’s horizons are literally shrinking. And Leavers are so indoctrinated, they celebrate that.

    "British people’s horizons are literally shrinking."

    The Earth is getting smaller? Wow! If only we'd known.

    The people of the UK, or anywhere else for that matter, are not going to be constrained by stupid politics. I understand what you're saying, and I even have a degree of sympathy for it - perhaps we have to work harder to discover our big family, but discover we will.

    Of course you're right to worry about all sorts of things like freedom of opportunity, but there's not a chance that small impediments obstruct adventure.

    When a Leaver on thread is advocating Skegness as a substitute for Sardinia for the summer holiday, something is going seriously wrong with Leaver wiring. The small impediments seem to be located between Leavers’ ears.
    I know several people who have been to Skegness but nobody who has been to Sardinia.

    For that matter I've never heard anyone extol Sardinia as a holiday destination.

    Lots of places in Italy certainly but never Sardinia.
    Cos Esmeralda is very popular with Russians and the type of Brit with more money than taste
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    @Philip_Thompson

    We've had this discussion before[1] and we will again. Below are the rates in dollars for 1GBP on January 1st each year since 2010.

    2010: 1.6150
    2011: 1.5610
    2012: 1.5507
    2013: 1.6245
    2014: 1.6554
    2015: 1.5571
    2016: 1.4740
    2017: 1.2300
    2018: 1.3490
    2019: 1.2733

    4pm today: 1.2232
    Approx 7:16pm BST: 1.2169 (spot)
    Approx 8:30pm BST: 1.2161 (spot)

    Sources
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2010-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2011-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2012-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttp://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-01_01_2013-exchange-rate-history.html
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2014-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2015-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2016-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2017-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2018-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-us-dollar-exchange-rate-on-2019-01-01
    h ttps://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-USD-2019
    h ttps://www.exchangerates.org.uk/GBP-USD-30_07_2019-exchange-rate-history.html

    [1] See October 8 2016, 3:07pm post on http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1290724/#Comment_1290724
    See also July 26 2017, 9:08pm post http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/1687053/#Comment_1687053
    See also July 30, 2019, 7:26pm post on http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2419660/#Comment_2419660
    See also other posts, not specifically addressed to you
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Dadge said:
    If you don't understand how technology works there you don't understand the proposals.
    Technology works differently there? Is that the leprechauns messing up the byte order?
    What percentage of U.K.-Eire trade crosses the border at the point in the image?
    You'd have to ask the guy who posted the image.
  • Dadge said:
    If you don't understand how technology works there you don't understand the proposals.
    The 'proposal' in the WA is that the UK has time until the end of the transition period to demonstrate that the 'technological solutions' do in fact work at the border depicted. If that is demonstrated, the backstop falls away.

    If one is absolutely convinced that the 'technological solutions' do work, one is absolutely convinced that the backstop is irrelevant because it will not be triggered.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I am greatly amused by the "undemocratic backstop" guff being spun by Shagger and his cabinet. The Back Stop protects the Good Friday Agreement, an international treaty signed in law by the UK following refereda on both sides of the Irish border.

    Abrogating both the international treaty and the referendum in Norniron is undemocratic.

    The issue is putting a customs border in the Irish Sea without the consent of Northern Ireland breaches the GFA.

    Forcing the U.K. to remain in the SM/CU is a permanent reduction in sovereignty

    So the choice are:

    1. Get consent from NI for the Irish Sea CB
    2. Accept permanent membership of the CU/SM
    3. Work to find an alternative solution

    3 is the best option but Varadkar chose party political advantage. Given where we are 1 is my preferred option but the DUP appears to be opposed. 2. does not respect the result of the referendum (because of the permanence)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Boris will campaign like May in a general election, flitting between safe spaces, and avoiding the press and debates.
    Boris did debates in the leadership election and referendum and has been campaigning across the UK since. He is a far better campaigner than May but it was the dementia tax that cost May her majority, which Boris opposed, not stage managed appearances
    It was a combination of factors. Labour support went up by 2% a week for six weeks. May's poor performance was the big issue in two of those weeks.
    The biggest bounces in Labour support came from Corbyn's manifesto giveaway and May's disastrous dementia tax announcement coupled with scrapping free school meals
    Do you approve of Boris copying the giveaway ?

    He’s too accomplished a bullshitter to put it in writing, but the manifesto is out there.
    If Boris blows the budget then no I don't approve it. If he picks a few targetted areas to raise spending on, like governments always do, then that is responsible.

    People are acting with mock horror that Boris has priorities. As if Osborne, Cameron, May and Hammond didn't have priorities too. The difference with Corbyn is he doesn't have priorities, he wants to spend money on everything.
    Which are ?
    Police was a primary example.
    No, it wasn’t.
    It will take years to recruit 20,000.
    He will (assuming he remains in government) have spaffed away many, many times that money on other ‘priorities’.
    You wonder a bit as well whether he's put aside the £2 billion a year that will be needed, or whether he has accepted Diane Abbott's figure of £10 a year wages and walking around stark naked.
    I doubt Boris bothers his little head with figures. After all, it’s not his money.

    And no, even leavers aren’t ready for naked Boris walking around.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,780

    Omnium said:

    For the vast majority of the 600+ years the British ruled Ireland the vast majority of Irish people had absolutely no say in any aspect of the decision-making process.

    I am happy to forego having an elected representative capable of ratifying or rejecting the kinds of laws the EU passes for a relatively brief period of time if it helps keep peace in Northern Ireland and delivers greater prosperity for the UK generally. I will be safe in the knowledge that the laws and regulations that actually affect my day to day life will be set at the Westminster and local level where I will have elected representatives.

    That's got nothing to do with Ireland and everything to do with being a less democratic age than now.

    Are you happy to set that as the bar and turn the clock back to being even less democratic than that? Because women and the poor couldn't vote in the past is that justification for saying they shouldn't vote now?

    You may be happy to forego having an elected representative - good for you - I'm not and it is my fundamental human right to have one in my own country. And just because on a sectarian basis almost every single republican in NI backs it does not mean that it should be applied over the objection of the vast majority of unionists.
    How do you know you have these fundamental human rights?

    I don't believe that you do have them, I don't believe that I do either.

    What you do have is the right to try to assert that you have such rights.

    Unfortunately I think that this has not merit.
    https://www.un.org/en/universal-declaration-human-rights/index.html
    So these rights only exist beyond the date of that document?

    We have no rights. The UN chose to declare some rights. You (and I) choose to declare that we join in this. Others may disagree.

    There are no such things as rights, and only judgmentally are there wrongs.

    These things really are very obvious.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Charles said:

    Varadkar chose this strategy because he was concerned about being outflanked by Sinn Fein.

    Fine Fail faces the same risk (the political charge of “disloyalty”)

    This was *exactly* why Varadkar made such a stupid mistake when he tried to play the border for domestic political advantage.

    If he’d continued with Enda Kenny’s approach we’d all be in a better place
    That was the Enda Kenny who made sure it was a phase one issue in the Article 50 negotiations? Varadkar did continue his approach.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Boris will campaign like May in a general election, flitting between safe spaces, and avoiding the press and debates.
    Boris did debates in the leadership election and referendum and has been campaigning across the UK since. He is a far better campaigner than May but it was the dementia tax that cost May her majority, which Boris opposed, not stage managed appearances
    It was a combination of factors. Labour support went up by 2% a week for six weeks. May's poor performance was the big issue in two of those weeks.
    The biggest bounces in Labour support came from Corbyn's manifesto giveaway and May's disastrous dementia tax announcement coupled with scrapping free school meals
    Do you approve of Boris copying the giveaway ?

    He’s too accomplished a bullshitter to put it in writing, but the manifesto is out there.
    If Boris blows the budget then no I don't approve it. If he picks a few targetted areas to raise spending on, like governments always do, then that is responsible.

    People are acting with mock horror that Boris has priorities. As if Osborne, Cameron, May and Hammond didn't have priorities too. The difference with Corbyn is he doesn't have priorities, he wants to spend money on everything.
    Which are ?
    Police was a primary example.
    No, it wasn’t.
    It will take years to recruit 20,000.
    He will (assuming he remains in government) have spaffed away many, many times that money on other ‘priorities’.
    You wonder a bit as well whether he's put aside the £2 billion a year that will be needed, or whether he has accepted Diane Abbott's figure of £10 a year wages and walking around stark naked.
    I doubt Boris bothers his little head with figures. After all, it’s not his money.

    And no, even leavers aren’t ready for naked Boris walking around.
    I meant the police officers.

    The mental image you have given me is one I could have done without.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    Boris will campaign like May in a general election, flitting between safe spaces, and avoiding the press and debates.
    Boris did debates in the leadership election and referendum and has been campaigning across the UK since. He is a far better campaigner than May but it was the dementia tax that cost May her majority, which Boris opposed, not stage managed appearances
    It was a combination of factors. Labour support went up by 2% a week for six weeks. May's poor performance was the big issue in two of those weeks.
    The biggest bounces in Labour support came from Corbyn's manifesto giveaway and May's disastrous dementia tax announcement coupled with scrapping free school meals
    Do you approve of Boris copying the giveaway ?

    He’s too accomplished a bullshitter to put it in writing, but the manifesto is out there.
    If Boris blows the budget then no I don't approve it. If he picks a few targetted areas to raise spending on, like governments always do, then that is responsible.

    People are acting with mock horror that Boris has priorities. As if Osborne, Cameron, May and Hammond didn't have priorities too. The difference with Corbyn is he doesn't have priorities, he wants to spend money on everything.
    Which are ?
    Police was a primary example.
    No, it wasn’t.
    It will take years to recruit 20,000.
    He will (assuming he remains in government) have spaffed away many, many times that money on other ‘priorities’.
    You wonder a bit as well whether he's put aside the £2 billion a year that will be needed, or whether he has accepted Diane Abbott's figure of £10 a year wages and walking around stark naked.
    I doubt Boris bothers his little head with figures. After all, it’s not his money.

    And no, even leavers aren’t ready for naked Boris walking around.
    I meant the police officers.

    The mental image you have given me is one I could have done without.
    Hey, you were the one to start waving around naked Borises. Even if inadvertently.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    Appreciate I'm very late to the party, but the idea that a weak pound is going to put pressure on Boris is incredibly one eyed.

    The entire point of his strategy is to convince people he really means to no deal, so the EU reconsider their position under some actual jeopardy rather than assuming we'll take whatever is on offer.

    A weak pound means it's working, at least for the markets (which is a different thing to saying it's the right strategy).

    And given that the EU regard No Deal as the equivalent of trying to save money on a heart transplant by doing it yourself - exactly how does Boris's self inflicted stupidity get the EU back at the table...
    Because it would be pretty shit for them too. As I said - not defending the strategy, just pointing out that this threader rather missed that this is a perfectly deliberate outcome.
    But no matter how bad it is for them - we will be in a worse position...
    And if we're crazy enough to do that, that stops it being bad for them how?

    Ultimately the EU position is basically crazy. The backstop supposedly exists to prevent adverse outcomes if there's no deal at the end of a 2 year standstill period. And they're so determined to defend this that they're willing to cause no deal right now?

    It's a game of chicken and the falling pound is a sign of a success for Boris in getting some people to believe he means what he says.
    Exactly! That's what I've been saying for the past year now.

    Their position is utterly illogical.
    It’s absolutely logical IF you think the U.K. will cave
    The ultimate logical move in a game of chicken is to make sure the other party sees as you superglue your accelerator to the floor and throw the steering wheel out of the window.
    @MTimT meet Boris

    Boris meet @MTimT

    Because people believe that Trump is an unpredictable fool they give him things they wouldn’t give others. Boris is playing the same trick...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    IanB2 said:

    Charles said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    Appreciate I'm very late to the party, but the idea that a weak pound is going to put pressure on Boris is incredibly one eyed.

    The entire point of his strategy is to convince people he really means to no deal, so the EU reconsider their position under some actual jeopardy rather than assuming we'll take whatever is on offer.

    A weak pound means it's working, at least for the markets (which is a different thing to saying it's the right strategy).

    And given that the EU regard No Deal as the equivalent of trying to save money on a heart transplant by doing it yourself - exactly how does Boris's self inflicted stupidity get the EU back at the table...
    Because it would be pretty shit for them too. As I said - not defending the strategy, just pointing out that this threader rather missed that this is a perfectly deliberate outcome.
    But no matter how bad it is for them - we will be in a worse position...
    And if we're crazy enough to do that, that stops it being bad for them how?

    Ultimately the EU position is basically crazy. The backstop supposedly exists to prevent adverse outcomes if there's no deal at the end of a 2 year standstill period. And they're so determined to defend this that they're willing to cause no deal right now?

    It's a game of chicken and the falling pound is a sign of a success for Boris in getting some people to believe he means what he says.
    Exactly! That's what I've been saying for the past year now.

    Their position is utterly illogical.
    It’s absolutely logical IF you think the U.K. will cave
    And the UK will cave (edit/and doesn’t have any punctuation). The game of chicken is between Bozo’s cabinet of ultras and the rest of Parliament.
    My autocorrect changes it every time and I’ve got bored changing it
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    Too right too for an Irish politician to be backing Ireland. Wouldn't it be nice if the Leader of the Opposition here backed our PM up when he is fighting for Britain?

    Won't see that any time soon.
    If our PM was fighting for Britain and in a good cause, certainly.

    Doesn't arise, though.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Varadkar chose this strategy because he was concerned about being outflanked by Sinn Fein.

    Fine Fail faces the same risk (the political charge of “disloyalty”)

    This was *exactly* why Varadkar made such a stupid mistake when he tried to play the border for domestic political advantage.

    If he’d continued with Enda Kenny’s approach we’d all be in a better place
    That was the Enda Kenny who made sure it was a phase one issue in the Article 50 negotiations? Varadkar did continue his approach.
    Kenny had a joint team working on technological solutions. Varadkar stopped that straight away
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,679

    NEW THREAD

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,698
    edited July 2019
    Nigelb said:

    IanB2 said:

    The NI stuff is starting to look significant. I don’t know about Cummings, but Boris wants to be loved, and being responsible for the return of violence and chaos is hardly compatible with that. I think a way will be found allowing Boris to cave without being too embarrassing for Boris.

    For that latter, there isn’t any other than being forced. I think Boris intends to give the impression that he’s ploughing towards no deal, knowing he’ll be stopped by MPs and then he can cynically play the “we was robbed” card.

    His risk is that by the time he is robbed, the fear will have ramped up to the point where most sensible folk are relieved, not outraged.
    Or MPs fail to thread the needle, and we no deal by default.
    They will find it a lot easier to thread the needle if BoJo is secretly hoping they are going to do so; he will let Bercow help manage it through whilst playing to the No Deal gallery about how his hands are tied etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Varadkar chose this strategy because he was concerned about being outflanked by Sinn Fein.

    Fine Fail faces the same risk (the political charge of “disloyalty”)

    This was *exactly* why Varadkar made such a stupid mistake when he tried to play the border for domestic political advantage.

    If he’d continued with Enda Kenny’s approach we’d all be in a better place
    That was the Enda Kenny who made sure it was a phase one issue in the Article 50 negotiations? Varadkar did continue his approach.
    Kenny had a joint team working on technological solutions. Varadkar stopped that straight away
    And the absence of a workable technical solution is down to this decision?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The tables on that Texas poll are absolutely wild. If accurate they completely blow apart my preconceptions.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,019
    HYUFD said:


    No Deal Brexit will offer us all the chance to discover again the delightful British seaside resorts and countryside and dine on tasty British beef, pork and lamb maybe washed down with an English sparkling wine

    So under No Deal Brexit, only the ruling class will be able to travel abroad, industry will have entirely domestic supply chains, and agriculture will be reduced to meat, cabbages and potatoes, kept alive only by subsidies, while the government also throws money at vanity third-class infrastructure projects.

    What shall we call this paradise? Socialism in one country?

    Albeit without the healthcare.
This discussion has been closed.