I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
If it had crashed I'd be seeing a lot more of Ed Conway on my telly surely.
Would it not have been better for Parliament to agree the terms on which we wanted to leave the EU before heading off to Brussels to negotiate. That way we could have delayed triggering Article 50 until that point and avoided the need for all this mess.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.
If the LDs win big it will certainly stop a lot of the election speculation. But if the Tories win the speculation will go into overdrive.
Given that at GE2017 the Tories were 19.5% ahead an LD win will be enough.
I was talking yesterday to a Tory activist I know who was in Brecon canvassing at the weekend. One voter told him that he'd done community service alongside the Tory candidate.
my view is that it is going to be closer.
My feeling as well. I only spent time in one part of the huge constituency, and a significant proportion of voters are out of realistic reach up long farm tracks and the like. The LD campaign seemed to be going well and is certainly well organised. But there was none of the enthusiasm of past by-election landslides, when people are keen to make a protest or send a message or whatever, creating an atmosphere that you can quickly pick up on. Indeed it's the apathy and discontent with all politics that you can't miss.
I think the organisation and the more positive campaign (Tories and BXP Ltd have both been more negative) will hopefully see the LDs home. But I have closed out of Mike's 50% bet to be safe. Yesterday I spent about four hours delivering a surprisingly small number of houses, so there will be physical limits on what any party can achieve on polling day.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.
Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
We simply do not have the weather for people to risk their annual holiday in the UK. We arrived back in the UK at the beginning of June and apart from a handful of sunny days it has pretty much rained all summer so far. I cannot wait to get away again September. If Boris's new Golden Age means holidays in Margate, frankly you can stuff it
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Can someone explain why it is that we agreed a deal with the EU BEFORE we had agreed what it was the UK Parlaiment would accept.? Would it not have been better for Parliament to agree the terms on which we wanted to leave the EU before heading off to Brussels to negotiate. That way we could have delayed triggering Article 50 until that point and avoided the need for all this mess.
Because the EU could have instantly said no. The legislature does not negotiate treaties.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
Oh for goodness sake. Of course it isn't the only thing, but are you really suggesting that if the £ drops to the dollar it doesn't have an upward impact on oil price?
If it doesn't go up, something else has pushed it down and without the drop in the £ it would go down further still.
Yes it can effect the price, hence why I said the thing to measure that matters more than currency is the rate of inflation.
The price of fuel is in the basket of goods that inflation measures.
In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422 Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08 Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel. For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.
On the last point. The Septennial Act was repealed, so a new act limiting the length of a parliament would be required. And the prerogative is a bit like Pandora’s Box. Once it has been lost, it is gone for good. Suggestions I’ve seen include a law stating that HM dissolves parliament via proclamation or order in council.
On the last point. The Septennial Act was repealed, so a new act limiting the length of a parliament would be required. And the prerogative is a bit like Pandora’s Box. Once it has been lost, it is gone for good. Suggestions I’ve seen include a law stating that HM dissolves parliament via proclamation or order in council.
Not the greatest problem in the world to solve. Any Act that repeals the FTPA will simply include whatever replaces it.
In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422 Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08 Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel. For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.
You think 2012 was the age of the Victorians?
Yes it does cost more, that we measure in inflation. Or do you deny that we measure inflation?
On the last point. The Septennial Act was repealed, so a new act limiting the length of a parliament would be required. And the prerogative is a bit like Pandora’s Box. Once it has been lost, it is gone for good. Suggestions I’ve seen include a law stating that HM dissolves parliament via proclamation or order in council.
Not the greatest problem in the world to solve. Any Act that repeals the FTPA will simply include whatever replaces it.
Yep. It just can’t be repealed without a replacement. Otherwise there’d be no limit to the length of a Parliament!
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Can someone explain why it is that we agreed a deal with the EU BEFORE we had agreed what it was the UK Parlaiment would accept.? Would it not have been better for Parliament to agree the terms on which we wanted to leave the EU before heading off to Brussels to negotiate. That way we could have delayed triggering Article 50 until that point and avoided the need for all this mess.
I presume that the EU side assumed the Government spoke for the British people and the British parliament. With hindsight, that was terribly naïve of them.
I remember when the Chequers "Deal" was announced that it was a sign of what a mess we were in, that it took a controversial process described that way, simply to form our side of the negotiating table. The EU negotiation mandate was publically accessible and agreed right at the start of the A50 process in comparison.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422 Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08 Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel. For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.
You think 2012 was the age of the Victorians?
Yes it does cost more, that we measure in inflation. Or do you deny that we measure inflation?
I was exaggerating to point out how ridiculous the statement was. Standards of living improve with time.
To try and argue that a decrease in the value of the pound against the dollar in which it is priced, does not have an upward impact, is at the point of denying mathematics.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.
Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
It appears that I wasn't joking.
Disagreeing with you isn't spin.
You are spinning that the drop in the £ is good news. Nobody else in the real world seems to think it is a good indicator of a healthy decision making by our leaders.
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
No .... Grayling remains the "PB (Fools) Gold Standard". Rabb is "Bargain Base Metal Barometer of Bullshit."
Granted that Rabb seems intent in giving Grayling a decent run for his money but the new Foreign Secretary has only been in post less than a week and time is on his side - 31st October to be precise.
In April 2012 1 litre of Unleaded cost £1.422 Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08 Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel. For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
This is ridiculous. If the £ drops against the $ Oil will cost more than it would have done otherwise. The fact that I am better off than most/all Victorians is irrelevant.
You think 2012 was the age of the Victorians?
Yes it does cost more, that we measure in inflation. Or do you deny that we measure inflation?
I was exaggerating to point out how ridiculous the statement was. Standards of living improve with time.
To try and argue that a decrease in the value of the pound against the dollar in which it is priced, does not have an upward impact, is at the point of denying mathematics.
I don't disagree it has an upward impact. I disagree on how much to care answer obsess over it. I'd rather look at things like inflation, real GDP, real wages etc
Given a hypothetical binary forced choice would you rather: Sterling rises and real wages fall OR Sterling falls and real wages rise.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.
The great news is that a lot of the hedge fund multi-millionaires who financed the Leave campaigns will be making a killing out of Johnson’s No Deal push. Maybe when they fancy a new currency position they’ll instruct Johnson to start talking.
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.
They also had the opportunity to vote on a plethora of different ideas. None received a majority.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
It appears that I wasn't joking.
Disagreeing with you isn't spin.
You are spinning that the drop in the £ is good news. Nobody else in the real world seems to think it is a good indicator of a healthy decision making by our leaders.
Funny when I did my Economics degree we were taught the positive and negative effects of currency changes. The major negative is inflation hence why I keep referring to inflation.
If you are in an age of low inflation like we are then a more competitive exchange rate can be beneficial so long as inflation remains under control. If inflation rises significantly then we will have an issue.
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.
They also had the opportunity to vote on a plethora of different ideas. None received a majority.
Some of the party political games that were played in those indicative votes were completely beyond the pale.
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
No .... Grayling remains the "PB (Fools) Gold Standard". Rabb is "Bargain Base Metal Barometer of Bullshit."
Granted that Rabb seems intent in giving Grayling a decent run for his money but the new Foreign Secretary has only been in post less than a week and time is on his side - 31st October to be precise.
A little Scots affecting your composition there Jack :-)
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.
Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
We simply do not have the weather for people to risk their annual holiday in the UK. We arrived back in the UK at the beginning of June and apart from a handful of sunny days it has pretty much rained all summer so far. I cannot wait to get away again September. If Boris's new Golden Age means holidays in Margate, frankly you can stuff it
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
It's obviously good if you're in the business of providing hospitality.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Think of all the Spaniards who'll be able to afford a dream retirement home in Skegness.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
It's obviously good if you're in the business of providing hospitality.
Not if they are no longer able to employ the people they need in order to provide that hospitality.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Losing freedom is freedom.
The most important thing is that the hedge funders who paid for the Brexit result are getting an excellent return on their investment. What else actually matters?
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
It appears that I wasn't joking.
Disagreeing with you isn't spin.
You are spinning that the drop in the £ is good news. Nobody else in the real world seems to think it is a good indicator of a healthy decision making by our leaders.
Funny when I did my Economics degree we were taught the positive and negative effects of currency changes. The major negative is inflation hence why I keep referring to inflation.
If you are in an age of low inflation like we are then a more competitive exchange rate can be beneficial so long as inflation remains under control. If inflation rises significantly then we will have an issue.
The big signalling function (in relation to any "basket case" analogies) is where a currency trades versus implied purchasing parity (where exchange rates should settle versus each other in the longer term). The pound is nearly 25 per cent off GBP / USD PPP - that's shocking by any measure and a vote by the markets on both the UK's position today and pricing in the expected direction of travel.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.
The great news is that a lot of the hedge fund multi-millionaires who financed the Leave campaigns will be making a killing out of Johnson’s No Deal push. Maybe when they fancy a new currency position they’ll instruct Johnson to start talking.
Cheaper domestic servants, too, in basket of currency terms.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.
For a view from an ex-Goldman staffer on what currency traders might be up to -
Jim O’Neil, ex Goldman on @BBCWorldatOne: “A lot of big foreign exchange and hedge fund type people [are] probably looking at what’s coming out the UK as almost close to a free lunch... [A lot] are saying thank goodness for Boris, he’s giving us a chance to make some money.”
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Hence apparent.
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
HOC Remainers had a chance to vote through May's deal. And anyone that voted to trigger Art 50 and didn't want a crash out Brexit in particular I feel were duty bound to do so, regardless of party affiliation.
If you voted for A50, you voted for the risk the EU would pull the plug so the UK goes direct to No Deal. Even that is discretionary, as we now know, because the UK has the right to revoke A50.
No-one is committed to trashing the country simply because Johnson and his faction choose to scorch the earth.
"In a way it is surprising that this wasn’t anticipated."
I thought this would happen and booked my late autumn accommodation, flight and bought my holiday Euros the day before Johnson took office. I felt in the first few hours as though I was being too cautious by doing this but it may well be the case I pre-empted an even worse exchange rate than we had.
I doubt BJ will get a deal by 31st October but if he did I would expect Sterling to rise against the Euro. I go abroad for the warmer temperatures and sunshine in late autumn, which even with global warming we are unlikely to experience in the UK.
I think when talking about currency movements one has to remember Jacob Rees-Mogg has a hedge fund that invested outside the UK in Euros for instance in preparedness for a No Deal Brexit. That he has a financial interest in such an extreme Government policy whilst being a member of the Cabinet is something that warrants investigation IMO.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.
It's the same shape as the Crimea too.
Sssh! Vladimir might be watching.
He could just buy it. Cheaper than mounting an invasion. He already owns half of London as it is.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Hence apparent.
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.
If the pound has fallen dramatically repeatedly for each of the last 6 to 12 month periods then it will be considerably lower now.
So compared to 1 September 2017 which is nearly 24 months ago or time for nearly 4x 6 month worth of falls ... so how much lower is the pound to the Euro now than 1 September 2017?
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
Doesn't the Isle of Wight have the UK's sunniest climate? Perhaps the government could seize it and turn it into a kind of state-approved holiday resort for party members, like the Soviets did with the Black Sea.
It's the same shape as the Crimea too.
Sssh! Vladimir might be watching.
He could just buy it. Cheaper than mounting an invasion. He already owns half of London as it is.
Remind me, is Andrew Lilico still agitating for the abolition of the monarchy because the Queen did not withhold Royal assent to the Cooper-Letwin Bill?
Remind me, is Andrew Lilico still agitating for the abolition of the monarchy because the Queen did not withhold Royal assent to the Cooper-Letwin Bill?
Isn't he bitter that she signed the EEC act in the first place?
In a sense he's right. The Leave campaigns assured everyone that there would be a smooth transition, zero disruption, no tariffs, no disturbance to car manufacturing, and that we'd be part of a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey. The idea that this would all require a deal with the EU was indeed never mentioned.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
At £1=0.2 USD my laptop would cost me £5000. I think I would notice that.
Some things you can't get in the UK and for which there is no local substitute. We don't have any uranium or coltan mines, for example.
I don't believe it will. Considering our currency has fallen by 80% to the dollar over decades why doesn't your laptop already cost 5x what it does in the USA In real terms?
Isn't the Footsie supposed to go up when sterling drops - is anyone here worrying about that??
I do Briskin, that and other indexes
Well me and Ms Brisk are only allowed 5k savings (we must be great for GDP figures) so it doesn't really affect us. I'd have thought the high-flyers of PB might be concerned though - we need Conway to explain what went wrong today. (it keeps saying coming up RE: pound but it wasn't on last hour)
The good news for Boris is that rocketing food prices cease to be a problem if there isn't any food in the shops.
I think we just have to Believe in Britain and Believe in Boris and look for the positives.
For example, if we have to have rationing, then the identification of Boris as a latter-day Churchill will be so much the stronger. When we see a picture of him standing there sticking two fingers up at us, we'll instinctively think, "We love him, and we owe him everything."
Or if not quite that at least, "None of this would have happened if it hadn't been for him."
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
No .... Grayling remains the "PB (Fools) Gold Standard". Rabb is "Bargain Base Metal Barometer of Bullshit."
Granted that Rabb seems intent in giving Grayling a decent run for his money but the new Foreign Secretary has only been in post less than a week and time is on his side - 31st October to be precise.
Exactly right. Poor Chris Grayling, how quickly we forget. Also Raab is struggling with a very difficult task. Grayling was just screwing up normal stuff like there was no tomorrow.
Isn't the Footsie supposed to go up when sterling drops - is anyone here worrying about that??
I do Briskin, that and other indexes
Well me and Ms Brisk are only allowed 5k savings (we must be great for GDP figures) so it doesn't really affect us. I'd have thought the high-flyers of PB might be concerned though - we need Conway to explain what went wrong today. (it keeps saying coming up RE: pound but it wasn't on last hour)
The good news for Boris is that rocketing food prices cease to be a problem if there isn't any food in the shops.
I think we just have to Believe in Britain and Believe in Boris and look for the positives.
For example, if we have to have rationing, then the identification of Boris as a latter-day Churchill will be so much the stronger. When we see a picture of him standing there sticking two fingers up at us, we'll instinctively think, "We love him, and we owe him everything."
Or if not quite that at least, "None of this would have happened if it hadn't been for him."
I wonder if any honeymoon or bounce is over already for Boris Johnson and the Tories? Higher petrol prices through a worse Pound/Dollar exchange rate will be the thing people notice first should Sterling continue to slide. I suppose it depends on how sudden the shock is in price rises at the pumps or bus fare increases. People can see the relationship from a Government policy and its impact on their life.
Comments
Today 1 litre of Unleaded costs £1.300
In April 2012 the National Minimum Wage for an adult was £6.08
Today the minimum payable to an adult over 25 is £8.31
So for 1 hours work in 2012 an adult could buy 4.276 litres of fuel.
For 1 hours work today that same adult could buy 6.393 litres of fuel.
Today someone on minimum wage can buy 50% more fuel per hour worked than someone could 7 years ago long before the referendum.
Currency is not all that matters in the debate.
Ah, that's a good one.
Let's give this conversation the chop.
I think the organisation and the more positive campaign (Tories and BXP Ltd have both been more negative) will hopefully see the LDs home. But I have closed out of Mike's 50% bet to be safe. Yesterday I spent about four hours delivering a surprisingly small number of houses, so there will be physical limits on what any party can achieve on polling day.
But yes.
Hence apparent.
Because the EU could have instantly said no. The legislature does not negotiate treaties.
The price of fuel is in the basket of goods that inflation measures.
Yes it does cost more, that we measure in inflation. Or do you deny that we measure inflation?
I remember when the Chequers "Deal" was announced that it was a sign of what a mess we were in, that it took a controversial process described that way, simply to form our side of the negotiating table. The EU negotiation mandate was publically accessible and agreed right at the start of the A50 process in comparison.
To try and argue that a decrease in the value of the pound against the dollar in which it is priced, does not have an upward impact, is at the point of denying mathematics.
https://youtu.be/asas49ZLa98
a) The absurd situation of a government VONCing itself as a loophole.
b) The LotO feeling obliged to go along with the government's call for an early GE simply for macho reasons.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
Granted that Rabb seems intent in giving Grayling a decent run for his money but the new Foreign Secretary has only been in post less than a week and time is on his side - 31st October to be precise.
Raab: dense and wooden
Patel: dense and malicious
Francois: dense and fat
Grayling: dense
Given a hypothetical binary forced choice would you rather:
Sterling rises and real wages fall OR
Sterling falls and real wages rise.
What would have happened without it then?
If you are in an age of low inflation like we are then a more competitive exchange rate can be beneficial so long as inflation remains under control. If inflation rises significantly then we will have an issue.
https://news.sky.com/story/pound-plunge-who-are-the-winners-and-losers-11773236
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
The most important thing is that the hedge funders who paid for the Brexit result are getting an excellent return on their investment. What else actually matters?
It’s become like a cult .
Oh and we import most of our food so that's a bit of a problem.
No-one is committed to trashing the country simply because Johnson and his faction choose to scorch the earth.
I thought this would happen and booked my late autumn accommodation, flight and bought my holiday Euros the day before Johnson took office. I felt in the first few hours as though I was being too cautious by doing this but it may well be the case I pre-empted an even worse exchange rate than we had.
I doubt BJ will get a deal by 31st October but if he did I would expect Sterling to rise against the Euro. I go abroad for the warmer temperatures and sunshine in late autumn, which even with global warming we are unlikely to experience in the UK.
I think when talking about currency movements one has to remember Jacob Rees-Mogg has a hedge fund that invested outside the UK in Euros for instance in preparedness for a No Deal Brexit. That he has a financial interest in such an extreme Government policy whilst being a member of the Cabinet is something that warrants investigation IMO.
Some things you can't get in the UK and for which there is no local substitute. We don't have any uranium or coltan mines, for example.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1156203747384745984
So compared to 1 September 2017 which is nearly 24 months ago or time for nearly 4x 6 month worth of falls ... so how much lower is the pound to the Euro now than 1 September 2017?
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1156194654473334784
For example, if we have to have rationing, then the identification of Boris as a latter-day Churchill will be so much the stronger. When we see a picture of him standing there sticking two fingers up at us, we'll instinctively think, "We love him, and we owe him everything."
Or if not quite that at least, "None of this would have happened if it hadn't been for him."
Unless they were secretly some kind of foreigner, that is.
Also Raab is struggling with a very difficult task. Grayling was just screwing up normal stuff like there was no tomorrow.