Isn't the Footsie supposed to go up when sterling drops - is anyone here worrying about that??
I do Briskin, that and other indexes
Well me and Ms Brisk are only allowed 5k savings (we must be great for GDP figures) so it doesn't really affect us. I'd have thought the high-flyers of PB might be concerned though - we need Conway to explain what went wrong today. (it keeps saying coming up RE: pound but it wasn't on last hour)
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
Unfortunately I am not paid in belief, will, or Britain, I am paid in Sterling. Although come to think of it, I am also paid in respect...
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Hence apparent.
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.
If the pound has fallen dramatically repeatedly for each of the last 6 to 12 month periods then it will be considerably lower now.
So compared to 1 September 2017 which is nearly 24 months ago or time for nearly 4x 6 month worth of falls ... so how much lower is the pound to the Euro now than 1 September 2017?
1 September 2017 was a low point in the sterling/euro rate - a fairer comparison would be with the post-referendum average, which would be about 1.15 I guess. And pre-referendum it was above 1.35. Today's rate is the same as it was at the height of the financial crisis in 2008-9.
The rate has moved almost 20% since the referendum, which is a dramatic fall IMHO.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
Is that really an issue?
We are talking about a nation that went into full panic mode when KFC ran out of chicken and you think they will just shrug when it dawns on them they might not be able to afford trips abroad?
You have to keep reminding yourself that this is not some act of god that we need to see through with a stiff upper lip, it is something we voluntarily signed up for, even if many can no longer remember why we did.
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
I still believe that if he can make the choice binary Parliament will take the deal (and Boris will breath as sigh of relief). If is of course the key word in that sentence.
The good news for Boris is that rocketing food prices cease to be a problem if there isn't any food in the shops.
I think we just have to Believe in Britain and Believe in Boris and look for the positives.
For example, if we have to have rationing, then the identification of Boris as a latter-day Churchill will be so much the stronger. When we see a picture of him standing there sticking two fingers up at us, we'll instinctively think, "We love him, and we owe him everything."
Or if not quite that at least, "None of this would have happened if it hadn't been for him."
I wonder if any honeymoon or bounce is over already for Boris Johnson and the Tories? Higher petrol prices through a worse Pound/Dollar exchange rate will be the thing people notice first should Sterling continue to slide. I suppose it depends on how sudden the shock is in price rises at the pumps or bus fare increases. People can see the relationship from a Government policy and its impact on their life.
The answer to that is simple. Boris will subsidise petrol prices. Try to have more Belief in Britain.
The good news for Boris is that rocketing food prices cease to be a problem if there isn't any food in the shops.
I think we just have to Believe in Britain and Believe in Boris and look for the positives.
For example, if we have to have rationing, then the identification of Boris as a latter-day Churchill will be so much the stronger. When we see a picture of him standing there sticking two fingers up at us, we'll instinctively think, "We love him, and we owe him everything."
Or if not quite that at least, "None of this would have happened if it hadn't been for him."
"Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Bozza."
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
I still believe that if he can make the choice binary Parliament will take the deal (and Boris will breath as sigh of relief). If is of course the key word in that sentence.
So the great saviour of the Tory party is going to ram through Theresa May's deal with Labour votes while Brexiteers line up to cry betrayal?
I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.
If the LDs win big it will certainly stop a lot of the election speculation. But if the Tories win the speculation will go into overdrive.
In which case, the LibDems in B&R should vote tactically. And vote Tory. An early election before we Brexit but with Corbyn at the Labour helm is probably their best chance in decades....
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Hence apparent.
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.
If the pound has fallen dramatically repeatedly for each of the last 6 to 12 month periods then it will be considerably lower now.
So compared to 1 September 2017 which is nearly 24 months ago or time for nearly 4x 6 month worth of falls ... so how much lower is the pound to the Euro now than 1 September 2017?
1 September 2017 was a low point in the sterling/euro rate - a fairer comparison would be with the post-referendum average, which would be about 1.15 I guess. And pre-referendum it was above 1.35. Today's rate is the same as it was at the height of the financial crisis in 2008-9.
Indeed but that is the point. Today's low point is exactly the low point of 2 years ago. So no real change on that period just variations. Certainly not 4 sets of 6 monthly falls.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
Unfortunately I am not paid in belief, will, or Britain, I am paid in Sterling. Although come to think of it, I am also paid in respect...
Not here....
You people are so deluded you even think PB is pro No Deal!
It would be truly comical if it weren't so tragic.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
Unfortunately I am not paid in belief, will, or Britain, I am paid in Sterling. Although come to think of it, I am also paid in respect...
Not here....
You people are so deluded you even think PB is pro No Deal!
It would be truly comical if it weren't so tragic.
And to you people, humour is a distant land, little visited.....
Sadly I think that is how much of the world sees us these days. My abiding image of Johnson will always be the picture of him stuck on a wire waving 2 union jacks. I think we are going to see a lot of it over the coming months
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
I still believe that if he can make the choice binary Parliament will take the deal (and Boris will breath as sigh of relief). If is of course the key word in that sentence.
Indeed. I don't dispute threatening Remainers with No Deal is a potentially viable strategy to a deal. I dispute that Johnson is actually threatening Remainers in that way. He also has to accept the deal as is. The evidence is that he's totally spooked by the ERG and Brexit Party.
Go back to 1985...the pound was 20% lower vs the dollar
According to the Express this morning, the pound is merely "easing", which sounds nice. If it ever resembles a full on sterling crisis I ireckon it will be 'ticking over', much as the price dial will be ticking over when you fill your car.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Hence apparent.
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.
If the pound has fallen dramatically repeatedly for each of the last 6 to 12 month periods then it will be considerably lower now.
So compared to 1 September 2017 which is nearly 24 months ago or time for nearly 4x 6 month worth of falls ... so how much lower is the pound to the Euro now than 1 September 2017?
1 September 2017 was a low point in the sterling/euro rate - a fairer comparison would be with the post-referendum average, which would be about 1.15 I guess. And pre-referendum it was above 1.35. Today's rate is the same as it was at the height of the financial crisis in 2008-9.
Indeed but that is the point. Today's low point is exactly the low point of 2 years ago. So no real change on that period just variations. Certainly not 4 sets of 6 monthly falls.
But the fact that the rate today is the same as it was during the financial crisis means that the markets believe the UK economy has not improved at all relative to the Euro area since 2009. Austerity, the Greek crisis, Italy, Ireland, Spain etc etc, have made absolutely no difference to the UK's relative position. Which is a pretty damning indictment of the Tories' economic stewardship.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
Unfortunately I am not paid in belief, will, or Britain, I am paid in Sterling. Although come to think of it, I am also paid in respect...
Not here....
You people are so deluded you even think PB is pro No Deal!
It would be truly comical if it weren't so tragic.
And to you people, humour is a distant land, little visited.....
Is that why you elected a Clown as a leader? BJ is an Idiot. If you voted for him what does that make you?
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
Wise words indeed.
If only people would have more Belief in Britain there would be less needless worry.
Even if a thermonuclear device exploded in central London, it wouldn't matter at all if nobody was hurt and no damage was done.
If you can demonstrate a method of exploding a thermonuclear device in central London without hurting anybody or causing any damage then yes you would have a point.
Perhaps if you detonated the device in a secure testing facility which contained the impact?
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
At £1=0.2 USD my laptop would cost me £5000. I think I would notice that.
Some things you can't get in the UK and for which there is no local substitute. We don't have any uranium or coltan mines, for example.
I don't believe it will. Considering our currency has fallen by 80% to the dollar over decades why doesn't your laptop already cost 5x what it does in the USA In real terms?
Surely we have just full circle here and you have just defeated your own point. The reason for the change in exchange rate over the decades is because the US economy has been more successful than ours (stronger economy higher exchange rate - the point being made!). If we had maintained that exchange rate ratio by performing just as well ourselves then the laptop would be 5x cheaper here wouldn't it, which would be good for us.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
At £1=0.2 USD my laptop would cost me £5000. I think I would notice that.
Some things you can't get in the UK and for which there is no local substitute. We don't have any uranium or coltan mines, for example.
I don't believe it will. Considering our currency has fallen by 80% to the dollar over decades why doesn't your laptop already cost 5x what it does in the USA In real terms?
Surely we have just full circle here and you have just defeated your own point. The reason for the change in exchange rate over the decades is because the US economy has been more successful than ours (stronger economy higher exchange rate - the point being made!). If we had maintained that exchange rate ratio by performing just as well ourselves then the laptop would be 5x cheaper here wouldn't it, which would be good for us.
No. Currency exchange movements are not a measure of virility - stronger economy DOES NOT mean higher exchange rate.
If we had maintained that exchange rate ratio the Laptop would not be 5x cheaper here, because it is NOT 5x more expensive here. Because exchange rates are in the abstract rather meaningless.
I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.
If the LDs win big it will certainly stop a lot of the election speculation. But if the Tories win the speculation will go into overdrive.
In which case, the LibDems in B&R should vote tactically. And vote Tory. An early election before we Brexit but with Corbyn at the Labour helm is probably their best chance in decades....
Level two is realising that if the Lib Dems lose, it will be a sure sign that this has happened, this making a GE impossible. And vice versa if they win comfortably.
I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
I am loving that "apparent."
The pound has "crashed" by a basically margin of error change that it has been trending within in recent years. Some "crash".
Hence apparent.
Please don't make me post the figures again. Every few years or months, somebody on PB (it might be you: apologies if it isn't) says that the pound has not fallen in value, I go to the bother of actually posting the figures, then there is silence, then 6-12 months later we do it all over again.
If the pound has fallen dramatically repeatedly for each of the last 6 to 12 month periods then it will be considerably lower now.
So compared to 1 September 2017 which is nearly 24 months ago or time for nearly 4x 6 month worth of falls ... so how much lower is the pound to the Euro now than 1 September 2017?
1 September 2017 was a low point in the sterling/euro rate - a fairer comparison would be with the post-referendum average, which would be about 1.15 I guess. And pre-referendum it was above 1.35. Today's rate is the same as it was at the height of the financial crisis in 2008-9.
Indeed but that is the point. Today's low point is exactly the low point of 2 years ago. So no real change on that period just variations. Certainly not 4 sets of 6 monthly falls.
But the fact that the rate today is the same as it was during the financial crisis means that the markets believe the UK economy has not improved at all relative to the Euro area since 2009. Austerity, the Greek crisis, Italy, Ireland, Spain etc etc, have made absolutely no difference to the UK's relative position. Which is a pretty damning indictment of the Tories' economic stewardship.
No it doesn't because that isn't what exchange rates measure.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.
Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
We simply do not have the weather for people to risk their annual holiday in the UK. We arrived back in the UK at the beginning of June and apart from a handful of sunny days it has pretty much rained all summer so far. I cannot wait to get away again September. If Boris's new Golden Age means holidays in Margate, frankly you can stuff it
That's pretty desperate stuff.
What is desperate about it? What is desperate is the idea that the country is going to happily opt for a "staycation" in the UK because of a declining pound. People might ultimately have no option but trying to make out it is some sort of Brexit bonus is delusional.
Before everyone starts watching the football on ITV4 - Does anyone know the start time in BST of Democratic debate?
No, but I know the start time is now much earlier than it would've been last week due to depreciation in the value of British Time. Which is the fault of Brexit. Or something.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
Wise words indeed.
If only people would have more Belief in Britain there would be less needless worry.
Even if a thermonuclear device exploded in central London, it wouldn't matter at all if nobody was hurt and no damage was done.
If you can demonstrate a method of exploding a thermonuclear device in central London without hurting anybody or causing any damage then yes you would have a point.
Perhaps if you detonated the device in a secure testing facility which contained the impact?
Perhaps if you Believed In Britain. I'm shocked - truly shocked - that you of all people are spreading alarm and despondency, just when we need it most. And Just When Boris Needs It.
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
I still believe that if he can make the choice binary Parliament will take the deal (and Boris will breath as sigh of relief). If is of course the key word in that sentence.
Indeed. I don't dispute threatening Remainers with No Deal is a potentially viable strategy to a deal. I dispute that Johnson is actually threatening Remainers in that way. He also has to accept the deal as is. The evidence is that he's totally spooked by the ERG and Brexit Party.
Johnson's aim is to win the next election. That is all he is interested in. Nothing else. He figures the best way to do that is to talk No Deal. The problem the country has, though, is that he also has to deliver on this. No other Brexit is now acceptable to the demographic he has targeted.
Sadly I think that is how much of the world sees us these days. My abiding image of Johnson will always be the picture of him stuck on a wire waving 2 union jacks. I think we are going to see a lot of it over the coming months
Nuts,
it;s how the rest of the world has seen us for centuries, theres nothing new in this.
No it doesn't because that isn't what exchange rates measure.
They measure capital flows which are driven partly by financial flows - trade, investment etc - and partly by speculative flows. And these flows reflect economic strength, both real and perceived. Countries with strong currencies usually have trade surpluses, strong inflows of foreign investment and stable politics. Countries with weak currencies generally have deficits, weak investment and unstable politics.
No it doesn't because that isn't what exchange rates measure.
They measure capital flows which are driven partly by financial flows - trade, investment etc - and partly by speculative flows. And these flows reflect economic strength, both real and perceived. Countries with strong currencies usually have trade surpluses, strong inflows of foreign investment and stable politics. Countries with weak currencies generally have deficits, weak investment and unstable politics.
Greece has the Euro which you say is a strong currency
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
No it doesn't because that isn't what exchange rates measure.
They measure capital flows which are driven partly by financial flows - trade, investment etc - and partly by speculative flows. And these flows reflect economic strength, both real and perceived. Countries with strong currencies usually have trade surpluses, strong inflows of foreign investment and stable politics. Countries with weak currencies generally have deficits, weak investment and unstable politics.
How is the deficit of the strong-dollared US looking?
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
At £1=0.2 USD my laptop would cost me £5000. I think I would notice that.
Some things you can't get in the UK and for which there is no local substitute. We don't have any uranium or coltan mines, for example.
I don't believe it will. Considering our currency has fallen by 80% to the dollar over decades why doesn't your laptop already cost 5x what it does in the USA In real terms?
Surely we have just full circle here and you have just defeated your own point. The reason for the change in exchange rate over the decades is because the US economy has been more successful than ours (stronger economy higher exchange rate - the point being made!). If we had maintained that exchange rate ratio by performing just as well ourselves then the laptop would be 5x cheaper here wouldn't it, which would be good for us.
No. Currency exchange movements are not a measure of virility - stronger economy DOES NOT mean higher exchange rate.
If we had maintained that exchange rate ratio the Laptop would not be 5x cheaper here, because it is NOT 5x more expensive here. Because exchange rates are in the abstract rather meaningless.
?
If my £ is worth 5x as many $s as now any product I buy priced in $s is a 1/5 of the price.
I'm not talking about us maintaining that rate, but in the scenario where that rate had maintained itself because we were more productive
And for clarity I'm not talking about a scenario where it is a different £ and we all earn a 1/5 of what we do now, but where there had been a natural steady(ish) exchange rate over the years because of parity in economic performance i.e. where we all are 5x richer.
I can't believe I am typing this as it is all cloud cuckooland stuff that we could only dream of. God knows how we could have achieved the scenario I am describing, but hey ho.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
No it doesn't because that isn't what exchange rates measure.
They measure capital flows which are driven partly by financial flows - trade, investment etc - and partly by speculative flows. And these flows reflect economic strength, both real and perceived. Countries with strong currencies usually have trade surpluses, strong inflows of foreign investment and stable politics. Countries with weak currencies generally have deficits, weak investment and unstable politics.
I think you're using too many long words for him. But I admire the attempt.
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
Now you have done more than tempting me into doubt. You have tempted me into looking at some actual data.
"The pound depreciated by approximately 10% immediately afterthe referendum. We analyse whether products that are more exposed to changes in the value of sterling experienced higher inflation following the vote. Sterling exposure is measured by the share of consumer expenditure that is spent on imports, including both direct expenditure on imported final goods and indirect expenditure on imported inputs used by UK firms. The depreciation raised inflation by increasing the import cost of both final goods and intermediate inputs. We find that for each 10 percentage point rise in a product group’s import share, inflation increased by 0.71 percentage points in the year after the vote.Accounting for both the depreciation and other ‘general equilibrium’ effects of the referendum, we estimate that the Brexit vote increased aggregate inflation by 1.7 percentage points in the year following the referendum. There is uncertainty about the exact size of this effect, but our analysis unambiguously shows that the referendum led to a substantial rise in inflation.The 1.7 percentage point increase in inflation implies that by June 2017, the Brexit vote was costing the average household £7.74 per week through higher prices.That is equivalent to £404 per year. Higher inflation has also reduced the growth of real wages. The impact of the referendum is equivalent to a £448 cut in annual pay for the average worker. Put another way,the Brexit vote has cost the average worker almost one week’s wagesdue to higher prices.Pass-through from the exchange rate depreciation to higher import costs peaked in the first quarter of 2017, but it is continuing in the third quarter of 2017. Households at all income levels and in all UK regions have experienced higher inflation because of the referendum. The costs have been evenly shared acrossthe income distribution, but not across regions. The rise in inflation due to the referendum has been lowest for households in London, while Scotland, Wales and especially Northern Ireland have been worst hit." http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit11.pdf
I think you have destroyed my Belief in Britain, Brexit and Boris.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
or you could just make the products at home
buy a Jaguiar
The majority of the components will come from overseas. "make" means assemble.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
Quite. "Experts" make livings out complicating simple issues and simplifying complex ones, and journalists make livings out of simplifying everything that anyone they can represent as expert says to suite their narrative and bias. You can see it at work in spades on the BBC.
Germany's dominant economic position in the EU owes much to the advantage of being able to trade off of a much weaker Euro than was justified by its national economic status.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
or you could just make the products at home
buy a Jaguiar
The majority of the components will come from overseas. "make" means assemble.
Only because we encouraged off shoring. If we on shore the numbers change, Nothing is fixed forever,
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
Is that really an issue?
We are talking about a nation that went into full panic mode when KFC ran out of chicken and you think they will just shrug when it dawns on them they might not be able to afford trips abroad?
You have to keep reminding yourself that this is not some act of god that we need to see through with a stiff upper lip, it is something we voluntarily signed up for, even if many can no longer remember why we did.
Can you provide some evidence that the “nation went into full panic mode” over KFC?
I recall a few newspaper articles and queues at a couple of shops
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
I still believe that if he can make the choice binary Parliament will take the deal (and Boris will breath as sigh of relief). If is of course the key word in that sentence.
Boris Johnson needs to get a new deal from the EU without a backstop for that to work.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Think of all the Spaniards who'll be able to afford a dream retirement home in Skegness.
Quite. There is a reason we leg it to the continent as fast as our legs can carry us whenever the opportunity for a vacation arises!
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
or you could just make the products at home
buy a Jaguiar
The majority of the components will come from overseas. "make" means assemble.
The added value bit, like with laptops, phones etc. Apple doesn't "make" much.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Think of all the Spaniards who'll be able to afford a dream retirement home in Skegness.
Quite. There is a reason we leg it to the continent as fast as our legs can carry us whenever the opportunity for a vacation arises!
Well not if you believe in global warming.
The British Isles will be one of the best places to live and will produce the finest wines.
I see Betfair have opened their Next Prime Minister market. I guess the first question is what is the fair price for Jeremy Corbyn.
It should broadly correlate with labour most seats (3.55 currently) I think.
There are a couple of caveats mind - Corbyn can become PM on less than Labour most seats as when push and shove come the SNP will support a Labour administration - the Lib Dems are a little more coy but I think if the arithmetic is tight they'll offer c&s to Labour ahead of a Boris Johnson led Tory party. It'll be a severly restrained (Good !) Labour Gov't that won't be able to move radically to the left too far but it will be a Corbyn Gov't I think
At the same time he might be replaced before an election.
Next GE
2019 1.9 2020 3.55 2021 21.5 2022 6.8
Corbyn Exit 2020 or later 1.44
No markets for 2021 Exit or 2022 specifically.
The market says there's a chance he'll be ousted but its tough to quantify.
There is also the possibility we have some sort of grandee PM after Boris before Corbyn.
It's a slim chance but it's there.
Are we looking around a fair price of 7-2/2-7 (To lay) maybe ?
It's not a particularly tempting back at that price but it might be fair value for both sides.
No it doesn't because that isn't what exchange rates measure.
They measure capital flows which are driven partly by financial flows - trade, investment etc - and partly by speculative flows. And these flows reflect economic strength, both real and perceived. Countries with strong currencies usually have trade surpluses, strong inflows of foreign investment and stable politics. Countries with weak currencies generally have deficits, weak investment and unstable politics.
Greece has the Euro which you say is a strong currency
Greece is currently fked
As you may have noticed, the Euro is used by a number of other countries whose economies are a bit larger and stronger than Greece. The Euro area as a whole has a trade surplus, strong foreign inflows and stable politics, ergo it has strong currency. Which is not good for Greece I grant you, but it does not undermine my point.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
Is that really an issue?
We are talking about a nation that went into full panic mode when KFC ran out of chicken and you think they will just shrug when it dawns on them they might not be able to afford trips abroad?
You have to keep reminding yourself that this is not some act of god that we need to see through with a stiff upper lip, it is something we voluntarily signed up for, even if many can no longer remember why we did.
Can you provide some evidence that the “nation went into full panic mode” over KFC?
I recall a few newspaper articles and queues at a couple of shops
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Think of all the Spaniards who'll be able to afford a dream retirement home in Skegness.
Quite. There is a reason we leg it to the continent as fast as our legs can carry us whenever the opportunity for a vacation arises!
Well not if you believe in global warming.
The British Isles will be one of the best places to live and will produce the finest wines.
Boris Johnson would argue we already produce the finest wine in the World. He takes his queue from Captain Rum in Blackadder! I would not want to go to a reception that Boris hosts....
No it doesn't because that isn't what exchange rates measure.
They measure capital flows which are driven partly by financial flows - trade, investment etc - and partly by speculative flows. And these flows reflect economic strength, both real and perceived. Countries with strong currencies usually have trade surpluses, strong inflows of foreign investment and stable politics. Countries with weak currencies generally have deficits, weak investment and unstable politics.
Greece has the Euro which you say is a strong currency
Greece is currently fked
As you may have noticed, the Euro is used by a number of other countries whose economies are a bit larger and stronger than Greece. The Euro area as a whole has a trade surplus, strong foreign inflows and stable politics, ergo it has strong currency. Which is not good for Greece I grant you, but it does not undermine my point.
and as I have also noticed the currency doesnt do its job and has created enormous disparities between its compnent member states.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Think of all the Spaniards who'll be able to afford a dream retirement home in Skegness.
Quite. There is a reason we leg it to the continent as fast as our legs can carry us whenever the opportunity for a vacation arises!
Well not if you believe in global warming.
The British Isles will be one of the best places to live and will produce the finest wines.
and the seaside will never be far away wherever you are
Now you have done more than tempting me into doubt. You have tempted me into looking at some actual data.
"The pound depreciated by approximately 10% immediately afterthe referendum. We analyse whether products that are more exposed to changes in the value of sterling experienced higher inflation following the vote. Sterling exposure is measured by the share of consumer expenditure that is spent on imports, including both direct expenditure on imported final goods and indirect expenditure on imported inputs used by UK firms. The depreciation raised inflation by increasing the import cost of both final goods and intermediate inputs. We find that for each 10 percentage point rise in a product group’s import share, inflation increased by 0.71 percentage points in the year after the vote.Accounting for both the depreciation and other ‘general equilibrium’ effects of the referendum, we estimate that the Brexit vote increased aggregate inflation by 1.7 percentage points in the year following the referendum. There is uncertainty about the exact size of this effect, but our analysis unambiguously shows that the referendum led to a substantial rise in inflation.The 1.7 percentage point increase in inflation implies that by June 2017, the Brexit vote was costing the average household £7.74 per week through higher prices.That is equivalent to £404 per year. Higher inflation has also reduced the growth of real wages. The impact of the referendum is equivalent to a £448 cut in annual pay for the average worker. Put another way,the Brexit vote has cost the average worker almost one week’s wagesdue to higher prices.Pass-through from the exchange rate depreciation to higher import costs peaked in the first quarter of 2017, but it is continuing in the third quarter of 2017. Households at all income levels and in all UK regions have experienced higher inflation because of the referendum. The costs have been evenly shared acrossthe income distribution, but not across regions. The rise in inflation due to the referendum has been lowest for households in London, while Scotland, Wales and especially Northern Ireland have been worst hit." http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit11.pdf
I think you have destroyed my Belief in Britain, Brexit and Boris.
If THAT'S True i'll Never FORGIVE you.
Inflation was below target before the referendum and dangerously close to deflation. The target rate of inflation is 2.0%
Our current inflation rate is 2.0% - which is 0.0% above target.
If Brexit is the cause of inflation being 0.0% above target then I can live with that.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
or you could just make the products at home
buy a Jaguiar
The majority of the components will come from overseas. "make" means assemble.
Only because we encouraged off shoring. If we on shore the numbers change, Nothing is fixed forever,
Except you lose the "know how" when you buy in, and it takes a very long time to reacquire it.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
or you could just make the products at home
buy a Jaguiar
The majority of the components will come from overseas. "make" means assemble.
The added value bit, like with laptops, phones etc. Apple doesn't "make" much.
But if the currency depreciates, all those component costs rise.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Think of all the Spaniards who'll be able to afford a dream retirement home in Skegness.
Quite. There is a reason we leg it to the continent as fast as our legs can carry us whenever the opportunity for a vacation arises!
Well not if you believe in global warming.
The British Isles will be one of the best places to live and will produce the finest wines.
Boris Johnson would argue we already produce the finest wine in the World. He takes his queue from Captain Rum in Blackadder! I would not want to go to a reception that Boris hosts....
Im just looking forward to the days when Hartlepool will be the Cannes of the North and can look down on the sun baked desert of its name sake. If Bordeaux is lucky it might get to produce sultanas, wine will be a distant memory.
I see Betfair have opened their Next Prime Minister market. I guess the first question is what is the fair price for Jeremy Corbyn.
It should broadly correlate with labour most seats (3.55 currently) I think.
There are a couple of caveats mind - Corbyn can become PM on less than Labour most seats as when push and shove come the SNP will support a Labour administration - the Lib Dems are a little more coy but I think if the arithmetic is tight they'll offer c&s to Labour ahead of a Boris Johnson led Tory party. It'll be a severly restrained (Good !) Labour Gov't that won't be able to move radically to the left too far but it will be a Corbyn Gov't I think
At the same time he might be replaced before an election.
Next GE
2019 1.9 2020 3.55 2021 21.5 2022 6.8
Corbyn Exit 2020 or later 1.44
No markets for 2021 Exit or 2022 specifically.
The market says there's a chance he'll be ousted but its tough to quantify.
There is also the possibility we have some sort of grandee PM after Boris before Corbyn.
It's a slim chance but it's there.
Are we looking around a fair price of 7-2/2-7 (To lay) maybe ?
It's not a particularly tempting back at that price but it might be fair value for both sides.
I think the LDs would only prop up a Labour minority government if Corbyn was replaced by say Keir Starmer
Oh yippee so the list of benefits from Leaving the EU with no deal is as follows .
A crashing pound , so more expensive holidays .
Losing my EHIC.
An international driving permit needed now .
The return of roaming charges .
So that’s the holiday Brexit package sorted .
Onto what I might like to do in the future .
I lose my automatic right to live, work or study in the EU . If I manage to somehow escape and decide to retire my healthcare won’t be covered , my pension isn’t guaranteed to be index linked .
And for all this I get , absolutely fuck all that improves my life in any way .
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
Wise words indeed.
If only people would have more Belief in Britain there would be less needless worry.
Even if a thermonuclear device exploded in central London, it wouldn't matter at all if nobody was hurt and no damage was done.
If you can demonstrate a method of exploding a thermonuclear device in central London without hurting anybody or causing any damage then yes you would have a point.
Perhaps if you detonated the device in a secure testing facility which contained the impact?
Perhaps if you Believed In Britain. I'm shocked - truly shocked - that you of all people are spreading alarm and despondency, just when we need it most. And Just When Boris Needs It.
Will we know when the "new Golden age" has arrived or will Boris have to send us another leaflet to tell us how to deal with it?
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
or you could just make the products at home
buy a Jaguiar
The majority of the components will come from overseas. "make" means assemble.
Only because we encouraged off shoring. If we on shore the numbers change, Nothing is fixed forever,
Except you lose the "know how" when you buy in, and it takes a very long time to reacquire it.
Sadly I think that is how much of the world sees us these days. My abiding image of Johnson will always be the picture of him stuck on a wire waving 2 union jacks. I think we are going to see a lot of it over the coming months
Nuts,
it;s how the rest of the world has seen us for centuries, theres nothing new in this.
Mr. Eagles, what do you make of where we're heading?
I'm leaning towards the notion the idiot Boris and macho bullshit/fear of losing face from both sides means no compromise whatsoever and no deal, despite neither side actually wanting it.
The pound could hit just one Euro or even less and Leavers will just peddle the same guff . Just holiday in the UK.
So not only are we to lose freedom of movement we’re also now told to just suck it up and be forced to holiday in the UK.
Leavers have an answer for everything in their desperate attempts to keep polishing the Brexit turd!
The pound could hit 20 cents and it wouldn't matter if inflation was low and real wages were rising.
It wouldn't happen but that's another matter.
How can a collapsing currency and wage inflation coexist with low inflation?
You tell me.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Inflation lags changes in exchange rates?
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
The biggest change in exchange rates was 3 years ago, so how much longer is it going to lag?
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
That's more like it. A weak currency won't be inflationary just so long as we Believe. That's better. Keep IT Up.
A weak currency isn't inflationary if you substitute expensive goods for cheaper variations. So no Mars bars, buy Heron Foods' own brand and No VW / Audi / BMW / Merc replace with Dacia ...
or you could just make the products at home
buy a Jaguiar
The majority of the components will come from overseas. "make" means assemble.
The added value bit, like with laptops, phones etc. Apple doesn't "make" much.
But if the currency depreciates, all those component costs rise.
We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
The MAHOOSIVE flaw with that argument: Johnson isn't threatening No Deal; he's all but promising it.
It might work if he said to Remainers:, Backstop, Customs Union, whatever you want ... but if you don't agree something it will be No Deal
I still believe that if he can make the choice binary Parliament will take the deal (and Boris will breath as sigh of relief). If is of course the key word in that sentence.
The choice cannot be made binary. The Commons votes for or against a proposition, it could only force a binary choice on itself by holding a procedural vote to do so, and such a vote seems very unlikely to carry in current circumstances as remainers and no dealers would both oppose it.
If my £ is worth 5x as many $s as now any product I buy priced in $s is a 1/5 of the price.
I'm not talking about us maintaining that rate, but in the scenario where that rate had maintained itself because we were more productive
And for clarity I'm not talking about a scenario where it is a different £ and we all earn a 1/5 of what we do now, but where there had been a natural steady(ish) exchange rate over the years because of parity in economic performance i.e. where we all are 5x richer.
I can't believe I am typing this as it is all cloud cuckooland stuff that we could only dream of. God knows how we could have achieved the scenario I am describing, but hey ho.
No that is not the way it works, we would not be 5x richer because that is implausible - and the USA hasn't 5x outperformed us.
Currency fluctuations depend upon a lot of factors and "economic performance" [which is so vague as to be almost meaningless] is just one small factor in it.
Other factors that matter dramatically are things like Money Supply, Monetary Policies, policies like Quantitative Easing etc can have a major impact.
Life is more complex than your oversimplistic nonsense and markets are clever enough to adjust to variations such as exchange rate etc - if sterling was worth 5x more or 5x less you would not over time be earning the same number of pounds in your pocket, you would be earning approximately 5x less or 5x more.
Inflation was below target before the referendum and dangerously close to deflation. The target rate of inflation is 2.0%
Our current inflation rate is 2.0% - which is 0.0% above target.
If Brexit is the cause of inflation being 0.0% above target then I can live with that.
Who knows - perhaps it's something to do with the fact that that 10% fall in the pound in 2016 was followed by a 10% rise in the pound over the following couple of years.
Frankly - without wishing to be rude - the handful of extreme Brexiteers here are so obsessive and delusional as to be beyond rational discussion. You'd swear white was black, or vice versa, if your devotion to this suicidal insanity dictated it.
A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
Why not? If they bring money in I don’t see a problem.
Good luck with telling people they won't be able to go abroad for their holidays anymore but isn't it great that all the Europeans can come here and have a cheap holiday.
It's obviously good if you're in the business of providing hospitality.
It's obviously bad if people who want to go abroad or buy stuff from abroad. Or "people", as they are usually known.
Comments
If only people would have more Belief in Britain there would be less needless worry.
Even if a thermonuclear device exploded in central London, it wouldn't matter at all if nobody was hurt and no damage was done.
The rate has moved almost 20% since the referendum, which is a dramatic fall IMHO.
You have to keep reminding yourself that this is not some act of god that we need to see through with a stiff upper lip, it is something we voluntarily signed up for, even if many can no longer remember why we did.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980s_oil_glut.
Good afternoon, everyone.
It would be truly comical if it weren't so tragic.
Sadly I think that is how much of the world sees us these days. My abiding image of Johnson will always be the picture of him stuck on a wire waving 2 union jacks. I think we are going to see a lot of it over the coming months
Think Of Winston. A Turnip Tastes Better Than Caviar If It is Seasoned With LIBERTY.
We have low inflation, we have wage inflation and you allege we have a collapsing currency. Check, check and check. So what's going on?
Perhaps if you detonated the device in a secure testing facility which contained the impact?
If we had maintained that exchange rate ratio the Laptop would not be 5x cheaper here, because it is NOT 5x more expensive here. Because exchange rates are in the abstract rather meaningless.
Mr. T, bitching about a 900 year old grudge is ridiculous. By that metric, I could whine about the Normans for genocide against Yorkshire.
But No! You tempted me into doubt for a moment then.
We must stay strong. Belief. Liberty. A Rock Standing Alone In The Atlantic Swell.
The Laws Of Economics Will Not Apply To Us If We BELIEVE.
You haven't quoted an actual law of economics.
it;s how the rest of the world has seen us for centuries, theres nothing new in this.
Greece is currently fked
If my £ is worth 5x as many $s as now any product I buy priced in $s is a 1/5 of the price.
I'm not talking about us maintaining that rate, but in the scenario where that rate had maintained itself because we were more productive
And for clarity I'm not talking about a scenario where it is a different £ and we all earn a 1/5 of what we do now, but where there had been a natural steady(ish) exchange rate over the years because of parity in economic performance i.e. where we all are 5x richer.
I can't believe I am typing this as it is all cloud cuckooland stuff that we could only dream of. God knows how we could have achieved the scenario I am describing, but hey ho.
Grumbling, on the hand.....
buy a Jaguiar
"The pound depreciated by approximately 10% immediately afterthe referendum. We analyse whether products that are more exposed to changes in the value of sterling experienced higher inflation following the vote. Sterling exposure is measured by the share of consumer expenditure that is spent on imports, including both direct expenditure on imported final goods and indirect expenditure on imported inputs used by UK firms. The depreciation raised inflation by increasing the import cost of both final goods and intermediate inputs. We find that for each 10 percentage point rise in a product group’s import share, inflation increased by 0.71 percentage points in the year after the vote.Accounting for both the depreciation and other ‘general equilibrium’ effects of the referendum, we estimate that the Brexit vote increased aggregate inflation by 1.7 percentage points in the year following the referendum. There is uncertainty about the exact size of this effect, but our analysis unambiguously shows that the referendum led to a substantial rise in inflation.The 1.7 percentage point increase in inflation implies that by June 2017, the Brexit vote was costing the average household £7.74 per week through higher prices.That is equivalent to £404 per year. Higher inflation has also reduced the growth of real wages. The impact of the referendum is equivalent to a £448 cut in annual pay for the average worker. Put another way,the Brexit vote has cost the average worker almost one week’s wagesdue to higher prices.Pass-through from the exchange rate depreciation to higher import costs peaked in the first quarter of 2017, but it is continuing in the third quarter of 2017. Households at all income levels and in all UK regions have experienced higher inflation because of the referendum. The costs have been evenly shared acrossthe income distribution, but not across regions. The rise in inflation due to the referendum has been lowest for households in London, while Scotland, Wales and especially Northern Ireland have been worst hit."
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit11.pdf
I think you have destroyed my Belief in Britain, Brexit and Boris.
If THAT'S True i'll Never FORGIVE you.
which is why the experts arent very good at it
Germany's dominant economic position in the EU owes much to the advantage of being able to trade off of a much weaker Euro than was justified by its national economic status.
https://twitter.com/tseofpb/status/1156231534355128320?s=21
I recall a few newspaper articles and queues at a couple of shops
That's why we must stop the Scottish Groat in its tracks, remember everyone-
#Carling4Tennents4indyref2
The British Isles will be one of the best places to live and will produce the finest wines.
There are a couple of caveats mind - Corbyn can become PM on less than Labour most seats as when push and shove come the SNP will support a Labour administration - the Lib Dems are a little more coy but I think if the arithmetic is tight they'll offer c&s to Labour ahead of a Boris Johnson led Tory party. It'll be a severly restrained (Good !) Labour Gov't that won't be able to move radically to the left too far but it will be a Corbyn Gov't I think
At the same time he might be replaced before an election.
Next GE
2019 1.9
2020 3.55
2021 21.5
2022 6.8
Corbyn Exit 2020 or later 1.44
No markets for 2021 Exit or 2022 specifically.
The market says there's a chance he'll be ousted but its tough to quantify.
There is also the possibility we have some sort of grandee PM after Boris before Corbyn.
It's a slim chance but it's there.
Are we looking around a fair price of 7-2/2-7 (To lay) maybe ?
It's not a particularly tempting back at that price but it might be fair value for both sides.
German vehicles for me all the way, though I did have a brief fling with an Italian that I gave me fond memories.
Our current inflation rate is 2.0% - which is 0.0% above target.
If Brexit is the cause of inflation being 0.0% above target then I can live with that.
A crashing pound , so more expensive holidays .
Losing my EHIC.
An international driving permit needed now .
The return of roaming charges .
So that’s the holiday Brexit package sorted .
Onto what I might like to do in the future .
I lose my automatic right to live, work or study in the EU . If I manage to somehow escape and decide to retire my healthcare won’t be covered , my pension isn’t guaranteed to be index linked .
And for all this I get , absolutely fuck all that improves my life in any way .
So sorry but Brexit can go fuck itself !
I'm leaning towards the notion the idiot Boris and macho bullshit/fear of losing face from both sides means no compromise whatsoever and no deal, despite neither side actually wanting it.
Currency fluctuations depend upon a lot of factors and "economic performance" [which is so vague as to be almost meaningless] is just one small factor in it.
Other factors that matter dramatically are things like Money Supply, Monetary Policies, policies like Quantitative Easing etc can have a major impact.
Life is more complex than your oversimplistic nonsense and markets are clever enough to adjust to variations such as exchange rate etc - if sterling was worth 5x more or 5x less you would not over time be earning the same number of pounds in your pocket, you would be earning approximately 5x less or 5x more.
Frankly - without wishing to be rude - the handful of extreme Brexiteers here are so obsessive and delusional as to be beyond rational discussion. You'd swear white was black, or vice versa, if your devotion to this suicidal insanity dictated it.