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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound dr
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further
The pound could drop as low as $1.00 or $1.05 on a hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank analyst says https://t.co/vgb0ojdQON pic.twitter.com/S4SrjLc5iM
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In the short term a boost for exports is probably welcome plus some extra money in the economy from stay-cations and shoppers flocking in from abroad.
If it means fewer lagers downed in Marbella then well try Cornwall next year - its a bit of a first world problem though innit.
Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.
Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/30/boris-johnsons-new-pm-polling-boost-second-blairs-modern-times/
viewcode said:
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Previous Leavers have cited an export boom as a reason to pursue a Weak Sterling policy. Now you are telling me it is not a problem because it does not produce cost price inflation. Taking you at your word for the moment, what is the level of cost price inflation you would consider significant, and how would you compensate for the lack of choice implied by foreign good becoming prohibitive?
I said:
We have an inflation target of 2% and CPIH is currently 1.9%. Imports form a part of the basket but only a part. If the cost of imports starts to drive us beyond, say, 2.5% then it would behove the BoE to take action which might well include a modest rise in interest rates.
As I said downthread the most obvious potential cause of this is oil which is increasing in cost due to Iran and is also priced in dollars. It's certainly something for the BoE to keep an eye on but to date there is very little sign that inflation is developing into a problem.
In the meantime we really should be holding our government to account about more important matters than a couple of cents off the price of sterling.
Only some members count, remember.
Since Mr Johnson started as Prime Minister last Wednesday, the Conservatives have recorded an average of 29.8 per cent across four opinion polls - a 5.5 point boost compared with the four polls before he took office.
[...]
Blair posted this figure on the back of a landslide election victory for Labour, which saw their polling jump from 47 per cent to a daunting 58.8 per cent.
None, as I believe he resigned his position in that company.
Win/win.
Yes, it doesn't matter unless you want to go abroad or buy anything from abroad. Which is pretty much everyone, sooner or later.
Have you not noticed that the countries with rapidly falling currencies are generally the world's basket cases? The £ is a measure of our economic strength and credibility.
Has he put all his interests in a blind trust? Or just resigned his directorship?
I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.
In other words the market thinks no deal is crap. You can't put a shine on that.
If the govt offers to loan them a further £140k, suddenly their choice to buy at 210k is taken away, if they want to buy they have to pay near £350k or someone else will and they will end up renting.
The same flat goes up massively in price resulting in £100m bonuses for people who happen to be in charge of housebuilders during a windfall period. If this happened in Russia or South America we would laugh at the corruption and stupidity of the scheme.
Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.
One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
Since Help to Buy was launched, has the average price of a two-bed flat in London gone up? If so, by how much?
At 26s I reckon it is value.
Edit - Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning.
Bit more fun for £5 or £10 than 1.04 on the LDs
"British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.
The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
But it really, really isn't. Unless it's a huge 20 point win either way, which I am certainly not expecting - almost all the evidence points to a very close result - national factors will have played very little role in it.
Just be thankful you don't have the fear of being paid in Scottish Groats.
Of course if Brexit were abandoned, the other two factors would almost certainly be eliminated too, so a rebound would be pretty much certain.
I don't expect to win because of the Tory candidate being a crook and this
https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1156136177415741440
But there's been a Johnson bounce in the polls so more on that.
The only thing that is making me gradually move to thinking the Liberal Democrats will win, narrowly, is that this sheep export story is dominating the last few days of the campaign.
We can't choose not to bow to the pressure/blackmail and think things will be ok. Of course we can accept that socialist nirvana or brexitania full of unicorns are destinations worth being poorer for, but markets will still be markets.
https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391
And why the price of potatoes goes down as they start to get rotten.
I was talking yesterday to a Tory activist I know who was in Brecon canvassing at the weekend. One voter told him that he'd done community service alongside the Tory candidate.
my view is that it is going to be closer.
How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
I don't want someone as dim as him to be taking any action that might lead to procreation.
Oh sorry, you meant on to be next Prime Minister?
You might as well as how many blue M&Ms could you eat without becoming Type 2 diabetic. Its not a meaningful question.
Just because you want meaningful numbers and thresholds doesn't mean they're available. What matters more than the currency threshold is other factors like our Real GDP per Capita and Inflation - they matter far, far more than currency thresholds.
Currency is not the only thing that matters.
Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
One plank from London described one of the terrorists as having a 'broad Yorkshire' accent.
*sighs*
Broad Yorkshire's bloody incomprehensible to practically everyone. The bloke just had a bit of a Yorkshire accent.
If it doesn't go up, something else has pushed it down and without the drop in the £ it would go down further still.