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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound dr

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited July 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further

The pound could drop as low as $1.00 or $1.05 on a hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank analyst says https://t.co/vgb0ojdQON pic.twitter.com/S4SrjLc5iM

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Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,837
    First? Like signs of reality poking in.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited July 2019
    The pound seems undervalued in the medium term.

    In the short term a boost for exports is probably welcome plus some extra money in the economy from stay-cations and shoppers flocking in from abroad.

    If it means fewer lagers downed in Marbella then well try Cornwall next year - its a bit of a first world problem though innit.

  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,545
    They've clearly heard we are going on holiday to Europe next week, and mrs tpfkar wants to buy shoes...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    DPT I am not sure the introduction of HTB has been accopanied by any particular increase in the price of two £350k bed flats in London - or whatever you think the average HTB property is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2019
    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    TGOHF said:

    The pound seems undervalued in the medium term.

    In the short term a boost for exports is probably welcome plus some extra money in the economy from stay-cations and shoppers flocking in from abroad.

    If it means fewer lagers downed in Marbella then well try Cornwall next year - its a bit of a first world problem though innit.

    Given the summer weather this year and last it's a great time to holiday at home. I'm sure Julian will be moaning about losing out on a few extra quid in the Dordogne but otherwise it's a first world problem - particularly for the all inclusive holiday loving masses.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    On topic I don't think this good news will add any pressure.
    viewcode said:

    That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"

    It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.

    Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited July 2019
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.
    Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.

    British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.
    Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.

    British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
    Devon is doing very nicely from the influx of staycationers..... Also, far more Germans and Dutch on the roads recently. They love the Euro down here - as long as it's buying a cream tea!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Boris Johnson's arrival in Downing Street has boosted the Conservatives in the polls by more than any incoming Prime Minister in the modern political era."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/30/boris-johnsons-new-pm-polling-boost-second-blairs-modern-times/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    HYUFD said:

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    "Respect the will of the Tory members!"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    And remember, industry had already stockpiled imports of raw materials ahead of the previous Brexit deadline, at better exchange rates. They are currently working through those...
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Well, if Boris could keep up the aggressive rhetoric for the next couple of days, I'd be grateful. I've a big US dollar receipt due. (When we set up the contract, we budgeted at £1=$1.50).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    This is starting to remind me of the DRM crisis, when the Tories were adamant they would defend the £ with high interest rates, until suddenly they caved in.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    Can we see what position Rees Mogg has in the currency markets at the moment?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013

    HYUFD said:

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    "Respect the will of the Tory members!"
    We are about to witness the splat of belief against the wall of fact. On my MP's Facebook page he has pointed out the strong and detailed arguments against no deal from local industry and business - all project fear according to the I Believe In Fairies mob. Because obviously Brexit chanting morons armed with a collective braincell and the interweb know more about how business works than the people running them.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,784
    Overblown. Nonsense. After all, September / October is a historically very stable time in the financial markets, and they have never, ever been known to get skittish at all at this time of year. Definitely not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    HYUFD said:
    By coup he means some angry tweets are coming...and then off on summer holidays and back for more of the same in a month or so.
    Labour coups have been forecast and not happened for the last 50 years.
    The chickens are all couped up?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    IanB2 said:

    This is starting to remind me of the DRM crisis, when the Tories were adamant they would defend the £ with high interest rates, until suddenly they caved in.

    How? The Tories have no control over interest rates.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232

    On topic I don't think this good news will add any pressure.

    viewcode said:

    That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"

    It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.

    Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
    I answered you on the previous thread.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    edited July 2019
    FPT
    viewcode said:
    » show previous quotes
    Previous Leavers have cited an export boom as a reason to pursue a Weak Sterling policy. Now you are telling me it is not a problem because it does not produce cost price inflation. Taking you at your word for the moment, what is the level of cost price inflation you would consider significant, and how would you compensate for the lack of choice implied by foreign good becoming prohibitive?
    I said:
    We have an inflation target of 2% and CPIH is currently 1.9%. Imports form a part of the basket but only a part. If the cost of imports starts to drive us beyond, say, 2.5% then it would behove the BoE to take action which might well include a modest rise in interest rates.

    As I said downthread the most obvious potential cause of this is oil which is increasing in cost due to Iran and is also priced in dollars. It's certainly something for the BoE to keep an eye on but to date there is very little sign that inflation is developing into a problem.

    In the meantime we really should be holding our government to account about more important matters than a couple of cents off the price of sterling.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    HYUFD said:

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    "Respect the will of the Tory members!"
    “Respect the will of 92,000 Tory members!”

    Only some members count, remember.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    AndyJS said:

    "Boris Johnson's arrival in Downing Street has boosted the Conservatives in the polls by more than any incoming Prime Minister in the modern political era."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/30/boris-johnsons-new-pm-polling-boost-second-blairs-modern-times/

    Love it. Boris's 29.8% is up there with Tone at 58.8%.

    Since Mr Johnson started as Prime Minister last Wednesday, the Conservatives have recorded an average of 29.8 per cent across four opinion polls - a 5.5 point boost compared with the four polls before he took office.

    [...]

    Blair posted this figure on the back of a landslide election victory for Labour, which saw their polling jump from 47 per cent to a daunting 58.8 per cent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Can we see what position Rees Mogg has in the currency markets at the moment?


    None, as I believe he resigned his position in that company.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance.
    Yes, many might pick London over Paris and New York this summer or autumn.

    British tourists might holiday in Cornwall or Pembrokeshire or the Lake District rather than Spain this summer too
    This would also solve all the issues around the colour of our new passports.

    Win/win.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    HYUFD said:

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    "Respect the will of the Tory members!"
    We are about to witness the splat of belief against the wall of fact. On my MP's Facebook page he has pointed out the strong and detailed arguments against no deal from local industry and business - all project fear according to the I Believe In Fairies mob. Because obviously Brexit chanting morons armed with a collective braincell and the interweb know more about how business works than the people running them.
    They are obviously suffering from a dearth of optimism and energy. Their belief is lacking.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232
    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    Unfortunately I am not paid in belief, will, or Britain, I am paid in Sterling. Although come to think of it, I am also paid in respect... :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    On topic I don't think this good news will add any pressure.

    viewcode said:

    That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"

    It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.

    Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
    Comments like this are mostly nonsense.

    Yes, it doesn't matter unless you want to go abroad or buy anything from abroad. Which is pretty much everyone, sooner or later.

    Have you not noticed that the countries with rapidly falling currencies are generally the world's basket cases? The £ is a measure of our economic strength and credibility.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    Pro_Rata said:

    Overblown. Nonsense. After all, September / October is a historically very stable time in the financial markets, and they have never, ever been known to get skittish at all at this time of year. Definitely not.

    You forgot to say that there are never ever any financial crises during the summer. Never. Such an event is unheard of.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    IanB2 said:

    This is starting to remind me of the DRM crisis, when the Tories were adamant they would defend the £ with high interest rates, until suddenly they caved in.

    It really isn't. We have not committed ourselves to any particular band giving the likes of Soros free money.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    RobD said:

    Can we see what position Rees Mogg has in the currency markets at the moment?


    None, as I believe he resigned his position in that company.

    Has he put all his interests in a blind trust? Or just resigned his directorship?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Cyclefree said:

    RobD said:

    Can we see what position Rees Mogg has in the currency markets at the moment?


    None, as I believe he resigned his position in that company.

    Has he put all his interests in a blind trust? Or just resigned his directorship?
    Not sure. I would hope the former.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    IanB2 said:

    On topic I don't think this good news will add any pressure.

    viewcode said:

    That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"

    It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.

    Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
    Comments like this are mostly nonsense.

    Yes, it doesn't matter unless you want to go abroad or buy anything from abroad. Which is pretty much everyone, sooner or later.

    Have you not noticed that the countries with rapidly falling currencies are generally the world's basket cases? The £ is a measure of our economic strength and credibility.
    It really is not. One hundred years ago, you got 5 dollars to the pound. But nobody would want to return to the standard of living of 100 years ago. The Italian economy stopped growing once the lira was replaced with the Euro.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    For a view from an ex-Goldman staffer on what currency traders might be up to -

    Jim O’Neil, ex Goldman on @BBCWorldatOne: “A lot of big foreign exchange and hedge fund type people [are] probably looking at what’s coming out the UK as almost close to a free lunch... [A lot] are saying thank goodness for Boris, he’s giving us a chance to make some money.”

    — Henry Mance (@henrymance) July 30, 2019
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.

    Yes, but because the journalists know nothing about Brecon and Radnor (it's painfully apparent most of them couldn't even point to Radnorshire on a map) they will almost certainly draw all the wrong conclusions.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Of course if a deal is struck the pound will soar resulting in remainers moaning about how awful it is for exporters.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    IanB2 said:

    On topic I don't think this good news will add any pressure.

    viewcode said:

    That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"

    It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.

    Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
    Comments like this are mostly nonsense.

    Yes, it doesn't matter unless you want to go abroad or buy anything from abroad. Which is pretty much everyone, sooner or later.

    Have you not noticed that the countries with rapidly falling currencies are generally the world's basket cases? The £ is a measure of our economic strength and credibility.
    And then there is the inflation it brings, followed by the increase in interest rates. How Philip and HYFUD see that it is positive that a currency is devalued I don't know. It is only good news if our economy has been overvalued in the first place and it brings it down to the correct value. So that is the point. Our economy was valued at a point and the fear over a No deal Brexit has just devalued our economy to this new point.

    In other words the market thinks no deal is crap. You can't put a shine on that.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is starting to remind me of the DRM crisis, when the Tories were adamant they would defend the £ with high interest rates, until suddenly they caved in.

    It really isn't. We have not committed ourselves to any particular band giving the likes of Soros free money.
    My analogy was political, not financial. The government is talking tough about maintaining its policy and position, just as the Tories did in the early 90s, right up until they were forced by events into folding.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454

    DPT I am not sure the introduction of HTB has been accopanied by any particular increase in the price of two £350k bed flats in London - or whatever you think the average HTB property is.

    Of course it does. A buyer with a £30k deposit who can borrow £180k commercially would have a capped price of £210k. They are competing against other people with similar situations to buy new build flats.

    If the govt offers to loan them a further £140k, suddenly their choice to buy at 210k is taken away, if they want to buy they have to pay near £350k or someone else will and they will end up renting.

    The same flat goes up massively in price resulting in £100m bonuses for people who happen to be in charge of housebuilders during a windfall period. If this happened in Russia or South America we would laugh at the corruption and stupidity of the scheme.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.

    Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.

    One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,232
    ydoethur said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.

    Yes, but because the journalists know nothing about Brecon and Radnor (it's painfully apparent most of them couldn't even point to Radnorshire on a map) they will almost certainly draw all the wrong conclusions.
    What wrong conclusions do you think they'll draw?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    DPT I am not sure the introduction of HTB has been accopanied by any particular increase in the price of two £350k bed flats in London - or whatever you think the average HTB property is.

    Of course it does. A buyer with a £30k deposit who can borrow £180k commercially would have a capped price of £210k. They are competing against other people with similar situations to buy new build flats.

    If the govt offers to loan them a further £140k, suddenly their choice to buy at 210k is taken away, if they want to buy they have to pay near £350k or someone else will and they will end up renting.

    The same flat goes up massively in price resulting in £100m bonuses for people who happen to be in charge of housebuilders during a windfall period. If this happened in Russia or South America we would laugh at the corruption and stupidity of the scheme.
    I am simply asking:

    Since Help to Buy was launched, has the average price of a two-bed flat in London gone up? If so, by how much?

  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    TGOHF said:

    Of course if a deal is struck the pound will soar resulting in remainers moaning about how awful it is for exporters.

    At what point do you want the value of the pound? When we start using wheelbarrows to carry our currency, when we can't buy stuff from abroad, when we can't travel, when shelves are empty. There are plenty of economies that have achieved that.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    edited July 2019
    RobD said:

    Can we see what position Rees Mogg has in the currency markets at the moment?


    None, as I believe he resigned his position in that company.
    Isnt he still a significant shareholder?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited July 2019
    O/T - Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.

    At 26s I reckon it is value.

    Edit - Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    IanB2 said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    This is starting to remind me of the DRM crisis, when the Tories were adamant they would defend the £ with high interest rates, until suddenly they caved in.

    It really isn't. We have not committed ourselves to any particular band giving the likes of Soros free money.
    My analogy was political, not financial. The government is talking tough about maintaining its policy and position, just as the Tories did in the early 90s, right up until they were forced by events into folding.
    Boris has certainly boxed himself into a corner with fright night. Can he find a way out? Losing March was really the end for May. He will not want a repeat but something surely has to give.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,547

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.

    If the LDs win big it will certainly stop a lot of the election speculation. But if the Tories win the speculation will go into overdrive.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    A common objection to the prospect of a Labour government is that 'the markets' would punish the country for making that choice. My answer to this is always that we should not bow to such pressure. It is essentially blackmail. Therefore to be fair I must say the same thing here. No Deal Brexit might well be - is - insanity but if it's what we want we should not let the markets put us off. Indeed part of Gove's 31 Oct planning ought to be similar to McDonnell's for the day after a GE win. For example, capital controls. And in the longer term. money creation, state directed investment and nationalisation of key sectors of the economy. Gove will also need to become Chancellor since Sajid Javid is not the man to build a successful seige economy. Gove, I sense, could, and what's more would thoroughly enjoy it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    kjh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Of course if a deal is struck the pound will soar resulting in remainers moaning about how awful it is for exporters.

    At what point do you want the value of the pound? When we start using wheelbarrows to carry our currency, when we can't buy stuff from abroad, when we can't travel, when shelves are empty. There are plenty of economies that have achieved that.
    There's no right or wrong answer to that. It's like asking what is the correct price of potatoes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    DavidL said:

    We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.

    Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.

    One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.

    Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    O/T - Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.

    At 26s I reckon it is value.

    Edit - Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning.

    Depends how much you've but on it.

    Bit more fun for £5 or £10 than 1.04 on the LDs
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    IanB2 said:

    On topic I don't think this good news will add any pressure.

    viewcode said:

    That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"

    It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.

    Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
    Comments like this are mostly nonsense.

    Yes, it doesn't matter unless you want to go abroad or buy anything from abroad. Which is pretty much everyone, sooner or later.

    Have you not noticed that the countries with rapidly falling currencies are generally the world's basket cases? The £ is a measure of our economic strength and credibility.
    They always have been. Hence there are barely 1.50 Swiss Francs to the £, down from 12 S.Fr in the 1960s. The Danish and Swedish currencies have also appreciated whereas in the 1970s and 1980s they stayed pretty level at ~10 Kr to the £.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Of course if a deal is struck the pound will soar resulting in remainers moaning about how awful it is for exporters.

    At what point do you want the value of the pound? When we start using wheelbarrows to carry our currency, when we can't buy stuff from abroad, when we can't travel, when shelves are empty. There are plenty of economies that have achieved that.
    There's no right or wrong answer to that. It's like asking what is the correct price of potatoes.
    Well I agree with that. The point I am making is we shouldn't be taking actions that lead to these potential outcomes (or others that are a smidgen less extreme)
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Out of the recognised leaders of the Leave campaign, I would really rather that the guy who wrote the following just after the referendum was PM, rather then the extremist clown we've got now:

    "British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.
    The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ydoethur said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.

    Yes, but because the journalists know nothing about Brecon and Radnor (it's painfully apparent most of them couldn't even point to Radnorshire on a map) they will almost certainly draw all the wrong conclusions.
    What wrong conclusions do you think they'll draw?
    They will see everything through a national lens. They will discuss how it was due to Swinson, or Johnson, or Brexit, or I don't know, the state of the economy.

    But it really, really isn't. Unless it's a huge 20 point win either way, which I am certainly not expecting - almost all the evidence points to a very close result - national factors will have played very little role in it.
  • So the Great British Peso is down a cent.

    Just be thankful you don't have the fear of being paid in Scottish Groats.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,225
    TGOHF said:

    Of course if a deal is struck the pound will soar resulting in remainers moaning about how awful it is for exporters.

    It isn't just about Brexit. The markets are taking account of the spending spree and loosening of the monetary policy that the new PM has been talking about. It amounts to a near perfect storm.

    Of course if Brexit were abandoned, the other two factors would almost certainly be eliminated too, so a rebound would be pretty much certain.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    DavidL said:

    We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.

    Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.

    One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.

    Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
    That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.

    Yes, but because the journalists know nothing about Brecon and Radnor (it's painfully apparent most of them couldn't even point to Radnorshire on a map) they will almost certainly draw all the wrong conclusions.
    What wrong conclusions do you think they'll draw?
    They will see everything through a national lens. They will discuss how it was due to Swinson, or Johnson, or Brexit, or I don't know, the state of the economy.

    But it really, really isn't. Unless it's a huge 20 point win either way, which I am certainly not expecting - almost all the evidence points to a very close result - national factors will have played very little role in it.
    Don’t national factors have a role in the relative popularity of the parties? Each constituency isn’t in a vacuum.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    Show me where was the will of the people for a no deal Brexit?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969

    O/T - Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.

    At 26s I reckon it is value.

    Edit - Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning.

    Depends how much you've but on it.

    Bit more fun for £5 or £10 than 1.04 on the LDs
    Just a cheeky fiver.

    I don't expect to win because of the Tory candidate being a crook and this

    https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1156136177415741440

    But there's been a Johnson bounce in the polls so more on that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    O/T - Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.

    At 26s I reckon it is value.

    Edit - Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning.

    Why wait?
  • Isn't the Footsie supposed to go up when sterling drops - is anyone here worrying about that??
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    O/T - Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.

    At 26s I reckon it is value.

    Edit - Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning.

    I thought it was value at 8-1.

    The only thing that is making me gradually move to thinking the Liberal Democrats will win, narrowly, is that this sheep export story is dominating the last few days of the campaign.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited July 2019
    kamski said:

    Out of the recognised leaders of the Leave campaign, I would really rather that the guy who wrote the following just after the referendum was PM, rather then the extremist clown we've got now:

    "British people will still be able to go and work in the EU; to live; to travel; to study; to buy homes and to settle down. As the German equivalent of the CBI – the BDI – has very sensibly reminded us, there will continue to be free trade, and access to the single market. Britain is and always will be a great European power, offering top-table opinions and giving leadership on everything from foreign policy to defence to counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing – all the things we need to do together to make our world safer.
    The only change – and it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s extraordinary and opaque system of legislation"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

    What has he done thus far that makes him an “extremist clown”?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    kinabalu said:

    A common objection to the prospect of a Labour government is that 'the markets' would punish the country for making that choice. My answer to this is always that we should not bow to such pressure. It is essentially blackmail. Therefore to be fair I must say the same thing here. No Deal Brexit might well be - is - insanity but if it's what we want we should not let the markets put us off. Indeed part of Gove's 31 Oct planning ought to be similar to McDonnell's for the day after a GE win. For example, capital controls. And in the longer term. money creation, state directed investment and nationalisation of key sectors of the economy. Gove will also need to become Chancellor since Sajid Javid is not the man to build a successful seige economy. Gove, I sense, could, and what's more would thoroughly enjoy it.

    The markets are not punishing/blackmailing us as a moral judgement, they are simply being markets. People prefer investing in other countries ahead of ours at last weeks rates, presumably because they think we are making mistakes and they will get better returns elsewhere.

    We can't choose not to bow to the pressure/blackmail and think things will be ok. Of course we can accept that socialist nirvana or brexitania full of unicorns are destinations worth being poorer for, but markets will still be markets.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.

    Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.

    One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.

    Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
    That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
    By a process of elimination if you take No Deal off the table, and the deal cannot pass, the only outcome can be Remain. It's just a question of time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    DavidL said:

    O/T - Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire.

    At 26s I reckon it is value.

    Edit - Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning.

    Why wait?
    Harsh but fair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Sean_F said:

    kjh said:

    TGOHF said:

    Of course if a deal is struck the pound will soar resulting in remainers moaning about how awful it is for exporters.

    At what point do you want the value of the pound? When we start using wheelbarrows to carry our currency, when we can't buy stuff from abroad, when we can't travel, when shelves are empty. There are plenty of economies that have achieved that.
    There's no right or wrong answer to that. It's like asking what is the correct price of potatoes.
    Which is why both are set by the market.

    And why the price of potatoes goes down as they start to get rotten.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kinabalu said:

    A common objection to the prospect of a Labour government is that 'the markets' would punish the country for making that choice. My answer to this is always that we should not bow to such pressure. It is essentially blackmail. Therefore to be fair I must say the same thing here. No Deal Brexit might well be - is - insanity but if it's what we want we should not let the markets put us off. Indeed part of Gove's 31 Oct planning ought to be similar to McDonnell's for the day after a GE win. For example, capital controls. And in the longer term. money creation, state directed investment and nationalisation of key sectors of the economy. Gove will also need to become Chancellor since Sajid Javid is not the man to build a successful seige economy. Gove, I sense, could, and what's more would thoroughly enjoy it.

    "Not giving in to the markets" translates as: "we won't let the extortionate rates of interest they are demanding prevent us from continuing to borrow money from them at those rates." That will certainly make them look very small.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited July 2019
    RobD said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.

    Yes, but because the journalists know nothing about Brecon and Radnor (it's painfully apparent most of them couldn't even point to Radnorshire on a map) they will almost certainly draw all the wrong conclusions.
    What wrong conclusions do you think they'll draw?
    They will see everything through a national lens. They will discuss how it was due to Swinson, or Johnson, or Brexit, or I don't know, the state of the economy.

    But it really, really isn't. Unless it's a huge 20 point win either way, which I am certainly not expecting - almost all the evidence points to a very close result - national factors will have played very little role in it.
    Don’t national factors have a role in the relative popularity of the parties? Each constituency isn’t in a vacuum.
    Not in Brecon and Radnor. This is a seat that bucks the trend - for example the Tories gained it by a whisker in 1992, and came nearer to holding it than any other Welsh seat in 97. It is probably the nearest thing on the mainland to a constituency in a vacuum.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    I do wonder if the by-election might assume more than usual significance in the media narrative.

    If the LDs win big it will certainly stop a lot of the election speculation. But if the Tories win the speculation will go into overdrive.
    Given that at GE2017 the Tories were 19.5% ahead an LD win will be enough.

    I was talking yesterday to a Tory activist I know who was in Brecon canvassing at the weekend. One voter told him that he'd done community service alongside the Tory candidate.

    my view is that it is going to be closer.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

    twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

    Still boggles the mind that he was a serious contender for leadership, and now holds one of the great offices of state.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    We are just past the 7th anniversary of Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech. At the time the future of the Euro seemed uncertain and bond rates in countries like Greece were effectively pricing that country out of the capital markets making them completely dependent on ECB funding. Now Greece is borrowing money at a lower cost than the United States. It is an extraordinary turnaround and Draghi is going into retirement with a lot to boast about.

    Of course there has been a price paid in terms of unemployment and slow growth but those who were so confidently forecasting the demise of the Euro (yes, AEP, I mean you) have been shown to be completely wrong.

    One of the many lessons from this success is that forecasts which simply project the current problem into the future assuming that any present trend will continue are not always reliable.

    Philip Hammond just needs to stand up in his resignation speech and say, "I will do whatever it takes to stop No Deal, and believe me, it will be enough."
    That would be about as unhelpful as he could be so he may well. Taking no deal off the table (as May effectively did) means the deal cannot pass because there is no downside risk for remainers. It has to be a credible option, if not one to be desired. If Hammond and May had not been so incompetent we might well have left on a deal already.
    Or maybe the people who campaigned for Brexit for 30 years could have bothered to vote for it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

    That's a worrying tweet.

    I don't want someone as dim as him to be taking any action that might lead to procreation.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I see Betfair have opened their Next Prime Minister market. I guess the first question is what is the fair price for Jeremy Corbyn.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    RobD said:

    BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

    twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

    Still boggles the mind that he was a serious contender for leadership, and now holds one of the great offices of state.
    Doesn't it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    kjh said:

    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.

    That's woolly thinking.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    I see Betfair have opened their Next Prime Minister market. I guess the first question is what is the fair price for Jeremy Corbyn.

    Tom Watson will start offers at ten grand.

    Oh sorry, you meant on to be next Prime Minister?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    That is a good point. It would have been a better point if it had answered the question I asked, which was "how low does the pound have to go before you think it's a problem?"

    It's a question without an answer. Years ago you could get $5 for £1. If suddenly the currency market said that tomorrow would that be fantastic news? I don't think so.

    Years from now £1 could be worth $1.20, $1.50, $2, $5, or 50c or 20c. What matters is not where we get currency wise but how and why and what effect it has on the economy.
    It really isn't a question without an answer. Let me explain

    You may recall that I keep insisting on (absolute) numbers, (relative) percentages (or variance) and thresholds as necessary for understanding. Without thresholds one cannot judge whether a course of action is successful or a characteristic acquired. Many people (not just you, btw) don't do this.
    It is a question without an answer because its tangential to what matters.

    You might as well as how many blue M&Ms could you eat without becoming Type 2 diabetic. Its not a meaningful question.

    Just because you want meaningful numbers and thresholds doesn't mean they're available. What matters more than the currency threshold is other factors like our Real GDP per Capita and Inflation - they matter far, far more than currency thresholds.
  • notme2notme2 Posts: 1,006

    HYUFD said:

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    "Respect the will of the Tory members!"
    We are about to witness the splat of belief against the wall of fact. On my MP's Facebook page he has pointed out the strong and detailed arguments against no deal from local industry and business - all project fear according to the I Believe In Fairies mob. Because obviously Brexit chanting morons armed with a collective braincell and the interweb know more about how business works than the people running them.
    I don’t think the government positively want a no deal (though some mutters do) but the line has been crossed. We are leaving in October with or without a deal. Preferably with one.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    notme2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    "Respect the will of the Tory members!"
    We are about to witness the splat of belief against the wall of fact. On my MP's Facebook page he has pointed out the strong and detailed arguments against no deal from local industry and business - all project fear according to the I Believe In Fairies mob. Because obviously Brexit chanting morons armed with a collective braincell and the interweb know more about how business works than the people running them.
    I don’t think the government positively want a no deal (though some mutters do) but the line has been crossed. We are leaving in October with or without a deal. Preferably with one.
    That's easy to say in July. Much harder to say in mid-October.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    edited July 2019
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.

    That's woolly thinking.
    Oh I've not done this yet - Are you baaaaaking.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kjh said:

    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.

    Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.

    Currency is not the only thing that matters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Can we finally all agree on something on PB?

    Dominic Raab is even more shit than Chris Grayling.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    TGOHF said:

    The pound seems undervalued in the medium term.

    In the short term a boost for exports is probably welcome plus some extra money in the economy from stay-cations and shoppers flocking in from abroad.

    If it means fewer lagers downed in Marbella then well try Cornwall next year - its a bit of a first world problem though innit.

    Many people will prefer to cut back on their expenditure at home than forgo their annual jaunt to the sun. A lot f things would go before I sacrificed my trips away from this over-crowded, rain-sodden island.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,748

    BTW - This will be the tweet that will go atop all future Raab related and No Deal threads

    https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1155769740125712391

    https://twitter.com/homelesshorse/status/1156149026154274817

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.

    That's woolly thinking.
    Oh I've not done this yet - Are you baaaaaking.
    Surely it should be, 'are ewe baaaahking?' Just to ram the point home.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    kjh said:

    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.

    Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.

    Currency is not the only thing that matters.
    I am loving that "apparent."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. Doethur, that does make me think of the 7/7 bombers.

    One plank from London described one of the terrorists as having a 'broad Yorkshire' accent.

    *sighs*

    Broad Yorkshire's bloody incomprehensible to practically everyone. The bloke just had a bit of a Yorkshire accent.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.

    That's woolly thinking.
    Oh I've not done this yet - Are you baaaaaking.
    Surely it should be, 'are ewe baaaahking?' Just to ram the point home.
    Would it be not a hecatomb, but a myriatomb ?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458

    kjh said:

    I really do think HYFUD and Phillip could put a spin on anything re Brexit:

    How about burning pyres of free sheep to keep us warm to replace the oil priced in $s.

    Despite the apparent crash in the pound I'm not paying even a penny a litre more than I was for fuel priced in $'s years a couple of years before the referendum. In real terms, fuel is cheaper now than it was years ago.

    Currency is not the only thing that matters.
    Oh for goodness sake. Of course it isn't the only thing, but are you really suggesting that if the £ drops to the dollar it doesn't have an upward impact on oil price?

    If it doesn't go up, something else has pushed it down and without the drop in the £ it would go down further still.
  • Can someone explain why it is that we agreed a deal with the EU BEFORE we had agreed what it was the UK Parlaiment would accept.? Would it not have been better for Parliament to agree the terms on which we wanted to leave the EU before heading off to Brussels to negotiate. That way we could have delayed triggering Article 50 until that point and avoided the need for all this mess.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    notme2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    "Respect the will of the Tory members!"
    We are about to witness the splat of belief against the wall of fact. On my MP's Facebook page he has pointed out the strong and detailed arguments against no deal from local industry and business - all project fear according to the I Believe In Fairies mob. Because obviously Brexit chanting morons armed with a collective braincell and the interweb know more about how business works than the people running them.
    I don’t think the government positively want a no deal (though some mutters do) but the line has been crossed. We are leaving in October with or without a deal. Preferably with one.
    I think Johnson prefers no-deal, so long as he can blame someone else. I expect to see a lot more effort going into blaming foreigners, traitors and people who "don't believe enough", than into getting a deal.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    A falling £ boosts the domestic British tourist industry and British exports, especially outside the EU where tariffs will be unchanged even with a No Deal Brexit.

    Despite diehard Remainer whinging it is not all negative and if a technical solution can be agreed to prevent a hard border in Ireland No Deal can still be avoided.

    Respect the will of the people and believe in Britain!

    It must be nice for tourists to visit the UK and have an expensive meal for half the price for instance. As for British tourists, there are plenty of places to go to in the UK.
    I doubt that many Brexiteers would see "foreigners" coming to the UK for a cheap holiday as a Brexit bonus!
This discussion has been closed.