politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PM Johnson’s first front pages after the day when he was most
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PM Johnson’s first front pages after the day when he was most powerful
Team Boris will be very pleased with the way the papers are treating his arrival at number 10 and and his new cabinet. They reflect that he has made a massive impact.
Comments
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Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.1 -
Second, like BXP in B&R0
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Third, like Gove!0
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and how will the Brexit Party itself react?
Y'day Farage on his LBC show was emollient and complementary about Johnson's speech.0 -
I think you may well be correct.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
I do think that labour are in a very bad place and are reaping the consequences of prevaricating over a referendum and anti semitism.
I expect to see labour slide to third place regularly in the polls.
Sky data poll shows best pm Boris 41% Corbyn 22%0 -
Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?0 -
I wonder what's going to happen with junior, sub-Cabinet posts. Who, for example, will replace Sir Alan Duncan?0
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Yep, it’s clear the Cabinet has been designed to woo BXP voters in anticipation of an autumn election. How can Farage not endorse what Johnson has done? The former Conservative and Unionist Party is now indistinguishable from BXP. I suspect this will be a successful tactic. Tories will depart for the LibDems, but many more will stay because they fear Corbyn. A united right against a split opposition should win handily. The only spanner in the works is that Johnson has been so extreme, non-Tory voters might think very carefully about how they cast their votes tactically to keep the BXP from power.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
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He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?1 -
I expect a very short term boost for the tories at the expense of permanent loses to the Lib DemsAlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.0 -
What if it's a stupid plan?AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?0 -
If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
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+1AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.0 -
Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.
Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.
Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.
Very big ask. But not incredible.0 -
I think the polarisation to the conservatives and lib dems will gather pace with labour losing out to botheek said:
I expect a very short term boost for the tories at the expense of permanent loses to the Lib DemsAlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.1 -
My warmest regards to Richard Nabavi. I read his sombre and dignified piece yesterday on quitting the Conservatives. As I know from my own experience that sort of thing is hard to do. That we've got to the point where proper Conservatives like Richard , rightly in my view , feel they need to leave is both astonishing and the new normal.
In the other direction I reluctantly took out the new Registered Supporter status with the Liberal Democrats yesterday. I left the party in 2012 and had no plans to return. But like many people from all Brexit perspectives I felt the need to do something as we hurtle to tge bottom of the cliff. One of the many bizarre side effects of the Corbyn virus and the emasculation sane conservatism is the entirely undeserved resurrection of the Liberal Democrats. But we are where are. It's a funny old world as a previous Conservative PM destroyed by Europe once observed.0 -
The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=200 -
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.MaxPB said:
What if it's a stupid plan?AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.0 -
Young people in UK abandon TV news 'almost entirely'
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2019/jul/24/young-people-uk-abandon-tv-news-almost-entirely-ofcom0 -
Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:
https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/11536242584819261451 -
He excluded and sidelined the 'spartans' but the leader of the ERG is now leader of the house, so I do not see much of a problem if Boris and his cabinet put a new or amended deal to the HOC. Also do not discount the 40 or so labour mps who will vote to leavewilliamglenn said:
If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
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A plan for what though?AlastairMeeks said:He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.
A plan for an autumn election?
A plan to crash out with no deal?
A plan to be the last Conservative and Unionist PM of the UK in history?
A plan to humiliate Tory MPs who weren't nice to him?0 -
Larry the Cat OUT !!!!!! ..... Apparently this particular pussy wasn't to Boris's taste and refused point blank clean out his own cat litter, a job that Chris Grayling had almost mastered after three years in May's cabinet.OldKingCole said:I wonder what's going to happen with junior, sub-Cabinet posts. Who, for example, will replace Sir Alan Duncan?
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Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!0 -
My issue with the LDs is they are in many ways almost as left wing as Labour. Their Brexit stance has been consistent but worryingly anti- democratic. I'm hoping with little confidence that Boris will get a fudged deal - it would be very consistent with past EU practice. Until then - keep calm and enjoy the Spanish summer - cooler than the UK today but around 3/4 months longer.
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JRM is Leader of the House simply because he will have no compunction for doing whatever is necessary in parliamentary terms to ensure departure without a deal. He's not there to steer a compromise through the HoC.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He excluded and sidelined the 'spartans' but the leader of the ERG is now leader of the house, so I do not see much of a problem if Boris and his cabinet put a new or amended deal to the HOC. Also do not discount the 40 or so labour mps who will vote to leavewilliamglenn said:
If Johnson doesn’t go for an election soon, look out for splits between him and the ERG.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
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I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.AlastairMeeks said:
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.MaxPB said:
What if it's a stupid plan?AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.0 -
Which illustrates perfectly the motivation behind Johnson’s strategy, and strongly implies his going for an election soon.edmundintokyo said:Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:
https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/1153624258481926145
Of course by being so blatant, it will peel off a few more votes to the Lib Dems, but once again the simplistic analysis that a split vote left of centre presents ab opportunity to the Tories seems about right. Even if the picture will be more complicated in reality.0 -
FPT:
I think he looks incredibly weak.Endillion said:
May couldn't (or at least didn't). And got deservedly criticised for looking weak. No one thinks Johnson looks weak.Roger said:
You could stand outside Wormwood Scrubbs and have a Cabinet in five minutes. It's all about the calibre of the appointees.Endillion said:Regardless of the calibre of the appointees, this reshuffle has gone a hell of a lot smoother than May's pathetic last attempt.
Who is there in this cabinet who is loyal enough to quietly tell the PM that he's got it wrong, the other half of the party can't wear it? Where's the Willie to his Maggie, the Prescott to his Blair?
This isn't a government, it's a schoolboy clique. That's weak.0 -
That’s a preliminary shadow dance. The EU is practically unable to move even if there were forces that wanted to (there aren’t). No one has authority to negotiate and everything is in limbo with the change of administrations.Sandpit said:
I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.AlastairMeeks said:
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.MaxPB said:
What if it's a stupid plan?AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.0 -
Personally not really convinced by the arguments that he needs prorogation to deliver no deal. Depends whether he listens to legal advice of the Attorney General.AlastairMeeks said:
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.MaxPB said:
What if it's a stupid plan?AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.0 -
If there’s an early election - which there almost certainly will be - I don’t see how Farage avoids endorsing the former Conservative and Unionist Party. The betrayal will come later. It’s a card he can play at any point.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.
Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.
Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.
Very big ask. But not incredible.
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Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.0 -
Mr. P, surely Labour is present, but not involved?0
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I think in some ways he will be actually relying to some extent on the LibDem threat in Remainia. As long as the bits of remainia we are talking about are Con-Lab marginals. There could be some interesting 3 way battles in London in particular. They may be in a better situation to win seats there than they were in 2017.CarlottaVance said:
The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=200 -
That thread is a very long-winded way of saying that absolutely anything can happen if we get an election before Brexit.edmundintokyo said:Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:
https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/11536242584819261450 -
I suppose the one other good thing about yesterday is that hopefully the long limbo will soon end. The country needs clarity - Even if that clarity is somewhat crap.SouthamObserver said:
If there’s an early election - which there almost certainly will be - I don’t see how Farage avoids endorsing the former Conservative and Unionist Party. The betrayal will come later. It’s a card he can play at any point.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.
Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.
Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.
Very big ask. But not incredible.0 -
It's certainly a possibility; shades of the speculation about Trump's Satanically ingenious strategies when the most likely explanation is that his actions are the expression of his self regarding viciousness with a slice of dumb luck. We've yet to see if BJ is a lucky general of course.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?0 -
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.alex. said:Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!0 -
There will be no renegotiation, but I think Boris aims for No Deal. Anything else destroys his base with the swivel eyed. If he pushes for No Deal and parliament stops him he gets the sheen of martyrdom, without having the consequences of having to sort out the mess.AlastairMeeks said:
That’s a preliminary shadow dance. The EU is practically unable to move even if there were forces that wanted to (there aren’t). No one has authority to negotiate and everything is in limbo with the change of administrations.Sandpit said:
I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.AlastairMeeks said:
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.MaxPB said:
What if it's a stupid plan?AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.0 -
And a vivid graphical depiction of why UNS models don’t apply to a third party recovering from its 2015/17 drubbing.CarlottaVance said:
The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=200 -
I think Boris will regret the course he has plotted, he has not even paid lip service to uniting the party. He is simply demanding unity on his terms. I'm not sure he will be able to build a majority in Parliament for his approach and don't think he will be able to win a majority in the country for it either. He and his defenders can make all the claims to being modern, progressive and socially liberal in outlook but when you've whacked JRM and Priti in your top team that's a tough sell. I'm not sure this is a government I as a moderate Tory can or ought to support.2
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I find it curious that in spite of all that happened in the last seven days, the odds on a No Deal in 2019 have remained around 30% on Betfair. Sterling has actually strengthened a bit in the last couple of days indicating a reduced chance of No Deal.0
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Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.Foxy said:
Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
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With Labour so weak, the Lib Dems are much closer to a breakthrough than they have ever been. In 2010 they were polling better but so were Labour. This capped their possible successes. It would take really only quite a small bump in the polls for the Lib Dems to be clearly second. At that point herd dynamics would look very different.CarlottaVance said:
The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=200 -
Loss of Telegraph money means he can't pay the child support?CarlottaVance said:
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need therealex. said:Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!
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Dosn'r Johnson's grown children moving in with him prsdnt something of a security risk? Surely there shouldn't be too many people unconnected with government coming and going?CarlottaVance said:
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.alex. said:Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!0 -
I wondered too but maybe the currency markets just want closure.Barnesian said:I find it curious that in spite of all that happened in the last seven days, the odds on a No Deal in 2019 have remained around 30% on Betfair. Sterling has actually strengthened a bit in the last couple of days indicating a reduced chance of No Deal.
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edmundintokyo said:
Amazing thread charting the possible paths of the clown car that is FPTP:
https://twitter.com/mariusostrowski/status/1153624258481926145
But amidst all the detail her figurework applies the same assumptions nationally, whereas even her own conclusion recognises that it is how and where the vote shifts fall that will be decisive.0 -
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I agree that they don’t want to move, and it’s logistically difficult for them to do so now - but Boris has to at least ask formally and be rejected before he goes down the no-deal route.AlastairMeeks said:
That’s a preliminary shadow dance. The EU is practically unable to move even if there were forces that wanted to (there aren’t). No one has authority to negotiate and everything is in limbo with the change of administrations.Sandpit said:
I think his first plan is to try and get some movement on the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU, making it clear that the alternative is no deal. If that doesn’t work, then it’s either no deal or an election.AlastairMeeks said:
None of his options look good now. My assessment is that all his options are odds against and some are unworkable. I doubt his plan will be stupid but it will inevitably be risky.MaxPB said:
What if it's a stupid plan?AlastairMeeks said:
He’s not stupid and he’ll have a plan. Whether it’s workable is another matter.IanB2 said:Various FPT:
Just maybe we are over-analysing, with all the speculation about what grand strategy for Brexit these appointments are part of, and what it means for a GE?
We know that for years Bozo has sat in parliament surrounded by a clear majority of his own side disliking him and (allegedly) prepared to keep him off the ballot paper.
Maybe he just worked out who they all are?
Trying for no deal via prorogation looks most viable to me.0 -
An election pre-Brexit is much easier for the LibDems as well though. Post Brexit (whether as bad or not as bad as predicted) and everything goes out the window. Even with a bad Brexit there may be a feeling of "well we're out, let's try and get to work making the best of it". As opposed to another year of dithering over referendums to rejoin etc (by which time things may have begun to improve and Remain (OUT) may win anyway.SouthamObserver said:
Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.Foxy said:
Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.0 -
SouthamObserver said:
I think you ascribe a degree of policy-focused logic to Farage which is misplaced. As I read him, he enjoys being a disruptive force in the limelight. He'll find a reason. Either:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.
If there’s an early election - which there almost certainly will be - I don’t see how Farage avoids endorsing the former Conservative and Unionist Party. The betrayal will come later. It’s a card he can play at any point.
* Brexit hasn't happened yet at the election, in which case it's a disgusting betryal, or
* a deal has been done, in which case it's a disgusting betrayal, or
* we've left without a deal amid chaos, in which case it's disgusting incompetence spoiling a wonderful idea.
The idea that he'll say "Oh, OK then, fair enough" and fold his tent is IMO for the birds.0 -
Shocking indictment of patronage, nepotism and the old school tie if his grown children don't already have a cushy number.alex. said:
Loss of Telegraph money means he can't pay the child support?CarlottaVance said:
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need therealex. said:Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!0 -
England? Not England & Wales or the United Kingdom?SouthamObserver said:
Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.Foxy said:
Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.0 -
Everything of course turns on 31st October but Johnson’s strategy of winning back TBP voters whilst the left is split is reminiscent of Thatcher in the 80’s where the SDP/Labour split massively enhanced her majorities. At the moment Labour look to be in a very bad place and I expect the polling to continue its recent trend in that respect. Do the Lib Dem’s have the strength in depth to take full advantage? That I am less sure about.0
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That will annoy the hell out of anyone who lives on the route between Fulham and Westminster!CarlottaVance said:
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.alex. said:Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!0 -
£/€ perked up against some poor EU economic data, but there has been little rise in £/$. We are still at a low in the currency markets and these aren’t likely to improve until some route is found to avoid no deal (either a deal or a cunning plan from its opponents), at which time the £ will jump (or fall if everything then goes pear shaped)felix said:
I wondered too but maybe the currency markets just want closure.Barnesian said:I find it curious that in spite of all that happened in the last seven days, the odds on a No Deal in 2019 have remained around 30% on Betfair. Sterling has actually strengthened a bit in the last couple of days indicating a reduced chance of No Deal.
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The former Conservative and Unionist Party is now the English Nationalist Party. Any seats it gets in Wales, let alone Scotland, will be incidental to that.logical_song said:
England? Not England & Wales or the United Kingdom?SouthamObserver said:
Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.Foxy said:
Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
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Mr. Observer, disagree.
Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.
It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.0 -
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IDS on R4 putting a brave face on fronting Bozo's campaign and getting sweet FA in return0
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I suspect that LD policy in an autumn post No Deal Brexit election wouls be to join the EFTA/EEA immediately. It would be rather funny to see @Richard_Tyndall with his orange diamond up in his front garden!alex. said:
An election pre-Brexit is much easier for the LibDems as well though. Post Brexit (whether as bad or not as bad as predicted) and everything goes out the window. Even with a bad Brexit there may be a feeling of "well we're out, let's try and get to work making the best of it". As opposed to another year of dithering over referendums to rejoin etc (by which time things may have begun to improve and Remain (OUT) may win anyway.SouthamObserver said:
Not long-term - but for one election framed as the one to get England out of the EU there will be. The betrayals come after that. Johnson has to go to the country before Brexit for this reason.Foxy said:
Boris is chasing part of the BXP demographic, the part that is financially secure, older and in the shires. I don't think that there ismuch appeal to the WWC part of the BXP.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.0 -
This is now all about the Tory party raising money over the summer period. They are desperately short of funds to fight a GE..0
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Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
I've looked at two scenarios:
A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:
Base 220, 240, 61, 55
Case A 295, 216, 65, 0
Case B 355, 175, 47, 0
The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.
I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.
If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are
Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.0 -
IDS saying no pre-Brexit election.
He clearly doesn't buy his friend HY's prediction.0 -
Mr. B2, that is a bit weird, likewise Grayling going (I think he resigned, but that might've been due to an offered inferior position).
Don't get me wrong, I'm glad Grayling's gone, but he's clearly pro-leave and a supporter of Boris, so that's a little peculiar.0 -
I wonder what potentially iliberal choice is on Patels desk!0
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He earned something like £800k last year from writing and speaking, his salary now is £150k - something that will no doubt annoy his ex-wife.alex. said:
Loss of Telegraph money means he can't pay the child support?CarlottaVance said:
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need therealex. said:Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!0 -
Say what you like about Boris, he's brought the weather.1
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But, Farage is not really interested in politics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, disagree.
Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.
It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.
He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.
I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.0 -
Ambassador to the US?YBarddCwsc said:
But, Farage is not really interested in politics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, disagree.
Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.
It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.
He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.
I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.0 -
With the array of donkeys they have I would say it is more than a big ask unless they trip over it.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, I'm not so sure.
Almost nothing will be 'hard' enough to satisfy BP, but if that does happen then the responsibility (and, bare minimum, that means significant short term disruption exacerbated by lack of planning) falls squarely on the Conservatives.
Lib Dems still looking good but they need to recognise and capitalise on the fact that this set of extremely favourable circumstances may never again recur. Their objective has got to be to supplant Labour, become the major party of the left, and defeat the Conservatives.
Very big ask. But not incredible.0 -
Electoral Calculus is next to useless in current circumstances. Of the models available only Flavible is trying to be a bit more sophisticated.Barnesian said:
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
I've looked at two scenarios:
A ) Tories gain 5% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
B ) Tories gain 10% from BXP and lose 5% to LDs
Using the EMA as a base and Electoral Calculus it gives for Con, Lab, LD and BXP:
Base 220, 240, 61, 55
Case A 295, 216, 65, 0
Case B 355, 175, 47, 0
The Tories gain far more seats from attracting BXP voters than they lose to the LDs from defecting Tories.
I assume the Tories have done a similar calculation so the game plan I assume is to emulate the BXP, suffer loses to the LDs and gain an overall majority in a snap election.
If, additionally, LDs gain 5% from Lab then the seats are
Case B plus 5% from Lab 372, 122, 83, 0
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.0 -
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I am not sure the current President of the US is susceptible to reasoning, so we might as well have Farage in Washington.Mexicanpete said:
Ambassador to the US?YBarddCwsc said:
But, Farage is not really interested in politics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, disagree.
Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.
It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.
He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.
I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.
Selfish, I know, but I'd prefer to have Farage a few thousand miles away.0 -
Got to be tempting. TBP is a one man band. Get Farage out of the way and there are a lot of ex Tory voters in play. They won’t get them all but they may well get enough.Mexicanpete said:
Ambassador to the US?YBarddCwsc said:
But, Farage is not really interested in politics.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, disagree.
Farage could easily demand a co-operative approach to the election (ie Con standing aside in many seats to give him and others a clear run). If Boris agrees, he's a moron, if not, Farage et al. could run and claim they're going to stand up for leaving and keep Boris honest.
It's possible he could endorse the blonde fool, but not certain.
He is interested in money. What he really wants is to be super-wealthy.
I think there are many ways Shagger can buy him off.0 -
At least Boris has stopped Dunt's foul language for onceScott_P said:0 -
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I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.Barnesian said:
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.0 -
Presumably only the Johnson children on which he is on speaking terms! It will be interesting seeing them flatshare with his doxy. No red wine...OldKingCole said:
Dosn'r Johnson's grown children moving in with him prsdnt something of a security risk? Surely there shouldn't be too many people unconnected with government coming and going?CarlottaVance said:
The Sun says Javid will stay in his family home in Fulham - apparently Johnson’s grown children will be moving in too, so there may be need there. May occupied the larger flat even though it was only her & Philip.alex. said:Johnson could have the best plan in the world. It might even achieve its aim (if its aim is restricted to leaving the EU on 31 October come what may).
None of it changes his unsuitability for the position of Prime Minister, and at some point he will be brutally exposed.
Completely off topic - the reports about Johnson moving in to the "4 bed flat" above no11 (which only started being PM home because Blair had children and Brown didn't), with Javid (+ wife and 4 kids) moving into "2 bed flat" above no10.
I think it's reasonable to speculate that either no10 is not actually a "2 bed flat" or the latter isn't happening!0 -
As has been noted already keeping on board enemies and rivals doesnt work, Boris knows that personally from his time in May's cabinet, so I dont have an issue in principle with vast changes by an incoming PM, even if it may be that plenty of the choices are not stellar.
But it will only matter if they are there for the long haul and that means him winning an election soon. I doubt that but it is hard - a good result in Brecon would be encouraging for him but it's down to if he delivers brexit, or more likely if he is not blamed if parliament stops us leaving. If neither happens even a win in Brecon would mean little .1 -
We are so used to consensus politics, divide and rule comes as a shock. Johnson may be less successful at it than Thatcher however. There are too many factors he can't control.0
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You can lay next GE in October at just 3 on BFEScott_P said:0 -
Penny Mordaunt told me that Boris is a twit. Pass it on.0
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No hope JRM?Scott_P said:0 -
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And if Cycle is voting in Camden she has a Labour/LibDem (maybe Green) choice of remain parties with no need to worry about tactics.NickPalmer said:
I think that's correct. Boris has a high floor but a low ceiling - he won't get more than 33% or so. The LibDems will do well but I can't see them getting much over 20% - already an excellent improvement. The election will hinge on whethe voters like Olly T and Cyclefree who dislike Boris, Corbyn and No Deal with almost equal passion, are prepared to vote tactically (for Labour if necessary - but also Labour voters in LibDem targets voting LibDem). If they do, Boris will be out and we'll see a Remain-leaning hung Parliament. If they don't, we'll see No Deal.Barnesian said:
The Tories get an even bigger majority. The resurgence of the LDs is a big opportunity for the Tories. It would be in their interests to actually encourage it. The only counter is a very smart tactical voting strategy from the anti-Tory parties.
tbh I thought Olly's conclusion the other day that he wouldn't support his moderate Labour MP because it might be interpreted as support for Cornyn was odd - it's obvious there isn't going to be a majority for hard left policies, and unlikely to be one for Labour, so I'd have thought that stopping No Deal - a very real possibility - would take priority. But these are strange times, and I'm not sure most people otgher than the diminishing band of partisans like me now really know how they'll vote.0 -
Yes.AlastairMeeks said:
With Labour so weak, the Lib Dems are much closer to a breakthrough than they have ever been. In 2010 they were polling better but so were Labour. This capped their possible successes. It would take really only quite a small bump in the polls for the Lib Dems to be clearly second. At that point herd dynamics would look very different.CarlottaVance said:
The LibDems could be as big a threat (or bigger, given they know how to fight parliamentary elections at scale):AlastairMeeks said:Boris is chasing the Brexit party demographic with this Cabinet. Will they be wooed? And how will Conservative Remain voters react?
I’d expect to see a boost for both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1153635730926780416?s=20
It's quite clear that voters wanting to stop Boris are going to have a choice to make. And Corbyn has self-imposed a ceiling on Labour by his 'leadership'.0 -
If Johnson is successful in his strategy, I think he will lose Scotland. English nationalism doesn't play well in these parts obviously.0
