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MPs vote to block the next UK PM shutting down Parliament in order to push through a no-deal #Brexit, by 315 votes to 274https://t.co/0puewBdfxO pic.twitter.com/AP6HJf6fO0
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If not we have a Labour, LD and SNP Government and extension and EUref2 or revoke
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable.
A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
ROTFL
The world is hanging on their lips (metaphorically). Are they going to give it all up at Boris Johnson's behest?
Going backwards
2 weeks to form a parliament after an election (call it 7 days at a push).
25 working days minimum for an election
14 days after a VoNC before an election is automatic.
That to me says if you haven't done things by September 5th its too late and we end up falling out with No Deal...
BUT, I also tend to think that even if there is no election, there is also a good chance that Parliament steps in to avoid No Deal.
There is lots of talk about entryism to the Conservative Party. Do I count as an entryist?
I joined 18 months / 2 years ago. There was lots of talk of leadership crisis and TMay having very little time left. There was lots of talk of JRM as a possible leader, and others from the ERG persuasion.
I joined so I could vote for the candidate who was furthest from the ERG wing of the party.
I wonder how many more there are like me. I've never had a call to poll me or test my opinion. It is possible that entryism works both ways?
Meanwhile the rest of the world moves on focusing on their economies, education, health, environment and making their countries a better place.
But 1/3rd of Tory voters are Remainers and you would do very, very, well not to forget this.
No 1 priority now is to become PM, so 'please electorate - Tory party members'
No1 priority as PM is to remain PM, so 'get MPs to agree some form, any form, of Brexit'
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
It was all so simple before....
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
The problem for Bozo is some Tories absolutely despise him , Hunt is a bit meh but doesn’t polarize in the same way .
Some will want to destroy his premiership and will be happy to be out of job anyway to bring him down .
Today at least we saw some Tories put the country first , and God bless Bercow for allowing the amendment .
No hopers: The first draw includes 10 candidates: Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan and Marianne Williamson.
Very little to half a chancers: The second draw includes six candidates: Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke and Andrew Yang.
Big four : The final draw includes four candidates: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
I note if we use @rsc1000 favoured metric of Iowa/New Hampshire then BOOTEDGEDGE is moving toward being a top tier rather than a 2nd tier candidate. Because "even" numbers are required though he can't be placed with the top 4 - in reality he's somewhere between the big four and the rest of his seeding pool.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
To which it's worth noting that he has the equal and opposite effect on Labour. If there's one person who will unite the dysfunctional PLP it's Boris Johnson. Even Kate Hoey might vote against the tories in a VONC.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
THAT IS lunacy.
A better name would be the "blow everything up and see what happens coz immigrants party"
Still looks like the remain "squad" will get the blame if we don't leave on 31st October.
An election in that scenario should be decisive.
And Parliament would be even more screwed...
If Labour members did not elect Corbyn, the ERG could not have had the influence they have. If Tory members follow the ERG, they massively increase the chance of Corbyn. If LD and Greeen members cannot work together, they massively increase the chance of extremist and failed government.
It is time for political members to grow up and realise the world operates on choices and compromises, not lists of demands and a search for purity.
The biggest political mistake of recent time is not the Brexit vote but political parties moving to members selecting the leaders directly. They have failed the nation across all the parties.
That aside, when you say "every Remainer who has joined" you are aware that there were one or two members of the Conservative Party before the referendum. Now I appreciate you are planning to rid the, your Party of all the wrong-thinking ones but some might just be remain inclined and not obsessed to the point of twattery by the EU.
Just a thought.
A competent Brexiteer could sweep the board with the right approach.
- try and force the PM (presumably Johnson) to ask for an extension that the EU might then not grant; or
- try and force him to revoke and hope he listens; or
- No Confidence him, hope someone can put a majority together in two weeks, or else risk Parliament being dissolved in which case we crash out while the campaign is ongoing.
I can't see a way that any of those three is viable. The first is most likely, but what if either Johnson starts mucking around by making an extension request the EU can't agree to, or if the EU refuse to grant one for their own reasons?
Can we work out the absentee pairings maybe.
Equally I suspect it won't be the case - I really can see the Tories losing seats but I'm struggling to see how they win them...
Hunt simply isn’t despised in that way and May for all her faults was underwhelming but never viscerally hated like Johnson .
This isn’t going to end well for the Tories .
Time for some MPs not suffering from PTSD.
https://twitter.com/DavidTCDavies/status/1134428719102214144
https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1138718828383342594
We'd be out already if they'd backed the bloody agreement their government spent two years negotiating.
It’ll be green ink next.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1151804497699770368?s=20
Well done to the 17.
Winning bigly!
Members will vote for centrists if they feel they are right for the time
THEY are the extremists and people on right and left have had enough. The liberal elite represent nobody but themselves in their north London bubble.