politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Blow for BoJo as CON MPs and ministers rebel on a measure that impedes his ability to prorogue parliament
MPs vote to block the next UK PM shutting down Parliament in order to push through a no-deal #Brexit, by 315 votes to 274https://t.co/0puewBdfxO pic.twitter.com/AP6HJf6fO0
Well, it has always been my concern that quasi-fascists would take over the Conservative Party. You are a frothing nutter. A remainer who has had a damascene conversion to the Cult of the Charlatan, and the Death Cult of Brexit. You are to be pitied as a man of very little brain who blindly follows his master to destruction. You are definitely not a Conservative, that is for sure. The real Conservatives will eventually rise again from the ashes that have been generated by fools such as you, but it may be a while.
Let me guess. You call yourself a Conservative, but you support Remain/Gay Marriage/Foreign Aid/Interventionism/Paris Agreement/Comprehensive Education. The delusion amongst Cameroons really is tragic to see - just look at how out of touch you are with your own party.
You're not a Conseravative. You're a confused Liberal Democrat. But don't worry, we Kippers (entryists) are working on it so that you'll be able to join the yellow team and come out and be yourselves.
There are several routes to a potential election before October 31
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable. A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
There are several routes to a potential election before October 31
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable. A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
There must be a good chance. Boris and parliament are on a collision course over No Deal. I find it hard to believe that Boris will stick his tail between his legs and go to Brussels for an A50 extension, unless it's because of a GE.
But so many people are in a position of power now - the DUP, the rebel Tories, the rebel Labour, the Lib Dems, even TIG/ChUK/whatever they call themselves now.
The world is hanging on their lips (metaphorically). Are they going to give it all up at Boris Johnson's behest?
There are several routes to a potential election before October 31
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable. A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
Now work out the timings
Going backwards
2 weeks to form a parliament after an election (call it 7 days at a push). 25 working days minimum for an election 14 days after a VoNC before an election is automatic.
That to me says if you haven't done things by September 5th its too late and we end up falling out with No Deal...
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Isn't an election one way of constructing a majority (or at least trying to)?
He'll offer Jezza the chance to have a general election and Jezza will bite his hand off.
If Jezza has any sense he will insist on an extension first - in fact an extension is essential unless Boris asks for an election next week...
Corbyn doesn't seem that bothered about leaving though.
Leaving isn't the issue there - screwing Boris who insisted we are leaving by October 31st is. If you can split the Tory vote wouldn't you do just enough to ensure it was split?
There are several routes to a potential election before October 31
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable. A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
Now work out the timings
Going backwards
2 weeks to form a parliament after an election (call it 7 days at a push). 25 working days minimum for an election 14 days after a VoNC before an election is automatic.
That to me says if you haven't done things by September 5th its too late and we end up falling out with No Deal...
Yes, I agree. It needs to be called by the first week of September.
BUT, I also tend to think that even if there is no election, there is also a good chance that Parliament steps in to avoid No Deal.
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Isn't an election one way of constructing a majority (or at least trying to)?
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Isn't an election one way of constructing a majority (or at least trying to)?
Good luck with that . Deselecting will see them resign the whip and the Tories are then totally screwed .
Nope, far better to get rid of the traitors and clean the stables to win back Brexit Party voters
You know what, I used to think you were just a deluded, gullible, intellectually challenged figure of fun. But when morons like you use phrases such as "traitors" for people that have given a life of service to their party and nation, I realise that you deserve nothing less than contempt. You are a worthless little worm with as much understanding as to what it means to be a Conservative as Jeremy Corbyn. You are completely beneath contempt.
People like me campaign week in and week out for the party and at weekends only for people like Grieve to reject what the vast majority of Tory members and voters want and what 17 million voted for and thus force thousands if not millions of our voters into the Brexit Party as a result.
Patronising, arrogant blowhards like you can lecture as much as you want but the sooner we are rid of the likes of you from the party the better, on that Viceroy is correct
@Viceroy doesn't want you in his party. Suck it up.
There are several routes to a potential election before October 31
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable. A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
Now work out the timings
Going backwards
2 weeks to form a parliament after an election (call it 7 days at a push). 25 working days minimum for an election 14 days after a VoNC before an election is automatic.
That to me says if you haven't done things by September 5th its too late and we end up falling out with No Deal...
Yes, I agree. It needs to be called by the first week of September.
BUT, I also tend to think that even if there is no election, there is also a good chance that Parliament steps in to avoid No Deal.
No Deal is why Parliament won't willing vote for an election. Which leave VoNC as the only way to get one and then it's a matter of how and win its triggered...
Tory Party is unmanageable right now. That makes an election more likely as time passes.
There is lots of talk about entryism to the Conservative Party. Do I count as an entryist?
I joined 18 months / 2 years ago. There was lots of talk of leadership crisis and TMay having very little time left. There was lots of talk of JRM as a possible leader, and others from the ERG persuasion.
I joined so I could vote for the candidate who was furthest from the ERG wing of the party.
I wonder how many more there are like me. I've never had a call to poll me or test my opinion. It is possible that entryism works both ways?
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Isn't an election one way of constructing a majority (or at least trying to)?
Obviously it is. But it is unlikely to be successful as the country is split down the middle. We would be very likely to end up with another hung parliament having wasted another two months and get more annoyed with our opponents (i.e. our neighbours).
Meanwhile the rest of the world moves on focusing on their economies, education, health, environment and making their countries a better place.
Good luck with that . Deselecting will see them resign the whip and the Tories are then totally screwed .
Nope, far better to get rid of the traitors and clean the stables to win back Brexit Party voters
You know what, I used to think you were just a deluded, gullible, intellectually challenged figure of fun. But when morons like you use phrases such as "traitors" for people that have given a life of service to their party and nation, I realise that you deserve nothing less than contempt. You are a worthless little worm with as much understanding as to what it means to be a Conservative as Jeremy Corbyn. You are completely beneath contempt.
People like me campaign week in and week out for the party and at weekends only for people like Grieve to reject what the vast majority of Tory members and voters want and what 17 million voted for and thus force thousands if not millions of our voters into the Brexit Party as a result.
Patronising, arrogant blowhards like you can lecture as much as you want but the sooner we are rid of the likes of you from the party the better, on that Viceroy is correct
Yes! War to the knife in the Tory Party! As soon as possible. Starting next week, hopefully.
There are several routes to a potential election before October 31
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable. A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
There must be a good chance. Boris and parliament are on a collision course over No Deal. I find it hard to believe that Boris will stick his tail between his legs and go to Brussels for an A50 extension, unless it's because of a GE.
Once Boris is PM his priorities might be 'recalibrated'.
No 1 priority now is to become PM, so 'please electorate - Tory party members' No1 priority as PM is to remain PM, so 'get MPs to agree some form, any form, of Brexit'
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
Tory Party is unmanageable right now. That makes an election more likely as time passes.
There is lots of talk about entryism to the Conservative Party. Do I count as an entryist?
I joined 18 months / 2 years ago. There was lots of talk of leadership crisis and TMay having very little time left. There was lots of talk of JRM as a possible leader, and others from the ERG persuasion.
I joined so I could vote for the candidate who was furthest from the ERG wing of the party.
I wonder how many more there are like me. I've never had a call to poll me or test my opinion. It is possible that entryism works both ways?
Gah!!!!
It was all so simple before....
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
No hopers: The first draw includes 10 candidates: Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan and Marianne Williamson.
Very little to half a chancers: The second draw includes six candidates: Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke and Andrew Yang.
Big four : The final draw includes four candidates: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
I note if we use @rsc1000 favoured metric of Iowa/New Hampshire then BOOTEDGEDGE is moving toward being a top tier rather than a 2nd tier candidate. Because "even" numbers are required though he can't be placed with the top 4 - in reality he's somewhere between the big four and the rest of his seeding pool.
Tory Party is unmanageable right now. That makes an election more likely as time passes.
There is lots of talk about entryism to the Conservative Party. Do I count as an entryist?
I joined 18 months / 2 years ago. There was lots of talk of leadership crisis and TMay having very little time left. There was lots of talk of JRM as a possible leader, and others from the ERG persuasion.
I joined so I could vote for the candidate who was furthest from the ERG wing of the party.
I wonder how many more there are like me. I've never had a call to poll me or test my opinion. It is possible that entryism works both ways?
Good for you in doing that, but the differences are you are supporting the traditions of the party, not revolutionising them, and as far as I am aware there are no russian funded millionaires spending their cash to create a blue wave of anti ERG new members.
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
One snag in that however.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
The problem for Bozo is some Tories absolutely despise him [...] Some will want to destroy his premiership and will be happy to be out of job anyway to bring him down .
I think we would all do very very well to heed this wise post. Theresa May inspired mainly pity. There are Conservatives who absolutely despise Johnson.
To which it's worth noting that he has the equal and opposite effect on Labour. If there's one person who will unite the dysfunctional PLP it's Boris Johnson. Even Kate Hoey might vote against the tories in a VONC.
HYUFD you do NOT represent the whole of your party. You are, in my view, an extremist and at the moment you make the most noise.
But 1/3rd of Tory voters are Remainers and you would do very, very, well not to forget this.
Indeed - vast majority of my friends (in SE) are effectively Tory remainers; and none of them voted for the Tories in the recent Euro elections or will do so at the next GE if no deal has either happened or is being pledged. They also all seem to hate Boris!
The problem for Bozo is some Tories absolutely despise him [...] Some will want to destroy his premiership and will be happy to be out of job anyway to bring him down .
I think we would all do very very well to heed this wise post. Theresa May inspired mainly pity. There are Conservatives who absolutely despise Johnson.
To which it's worth noting that he has the equal and opposite effect on Labour. If there's one person who will unite the dysfunctional PLP it's Boris Johnson. Even Kate Hoey might vote against the tories in a VONC.
Kate looked very loved up when on that boat with Nigel though. What's Nigel got that Boris hasn't?
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
THAT IS lunacy.
Just look at the Members of the ERG.. if you want loons, you'll find them there
Tory Party is unmanageable right now. That makes an election more likely as time passes.
This. All these priggish troublemakers fade into insignificance if you have a large majority.
Still looks like the remain "squad" will get the blame if we don't leave on 31st October.
An election in that scenario should be decisive.
I suspect it won't be. Remain will pick up a few seats, Labour will win more than expected because a referendum is neither here nor there and the Tories will be roughly the same (say -10 to 20 or so seats).
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
THAT IS lunacy.
I genuinely thought this was a diatribe against the ERG until I saw the poster's name.
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
One snag in that however.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
There is only so much you can do from a bunker out somewhere near the Urals.
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
No! Members of all the main political parties own this mess. There are far too many nutters who do not understand working together.
If Labour members did not elect Corbyn, the ERG could not have had the influence they have. If Tory members follow the ERG, they massively increase the chance of Corbyn. If LD and Greeen members cannot work together, they massively increase the chance of extremist and failed government.
It is time for political members to grow up and realise the world operates on choices and compromises, not lists of demands and a search for purity.
The biggest political mistake of recent time is not the Brexit vote but political parties moving to members selecting the leaders directly. They have failed the nation across all the parties.
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
One snag in that however.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
You may well do and good on you for so doing. It's how democracy works. You will as you so pithily put it, strangle the party to death and will then be able to claim victory as you stand over its rotting corpse.
That aside, when you say "every Remainer who has joined" you are aware that there were one or two members of the Conservative Party before the referendum. Now I appreciate you are planning to rid the, your Party of all the wrong-thinking ones but some might just be remain inclined and not obsessed to the point of twattery by the EU.
Tory Party is unmanageable right now. That makes an election more likely as time passes.
This. All these priggish troublemakers fade into insignificance if you have a large majority.
Still looks like the remain "squad" will get the blame if we don't leave on 31st October.
An election in that scenario should be decisive.
I suspect it won't be. Remain will pick up a few seats, Labour will win more than expected because a referendum is neither here nor there and the Tories will be roughly the same (say -10 to 20 or so seats).
And Parliament would be even more screwed...
Well that entirely depends on the positioning, the reason for the calling and the campaign.
A competent Brexiteer could sweep the board with the right approach.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
THAT IS lunacy.
I genuinely thought this was a diatribe against the ERG until I saw the poster's name.
I'm going to regret asking this but which 30? If it's the list above you are including people who had other places to be today like Hospital beds....
I'm sure it's all very lovely that Parliament thinks it's slowly blocking off any possibility of No Deal, but come September/October, they're still going to have to either: - try and force the PM (presumably Johnson) to ask for an extension that the EU might then not grant; or - try and force him to revoke and hope he listens; or - No Confidence him, hope someone can put a majority together in two weeks, or else risk Parliament being dissolved in which case we crash out while the campaign is ongoing.
I can't see a way that any of those three is viable. The first is most likely, but what if either Johnson starts mucking around by making an extension request the EU can't agree to, or if the EU refuse to grant one for their own reasons?
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
One snag in that however.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
So you’ve admitted you’re not a Conservative. Do you even live in Britain?
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
One snag in that however.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
Until we have a GE, the machinations of the Tory Party are a sideshow. No Deal won't happen unless the people vote for it. Farage knows this. He also knows that one of the ironies of our democratic system is that if the 35% No-Dealers vote for him, he'll be PM and it'll happen. Boris already seems to be holed below the waterline and he's not even in number 10 yet. It's looking likely that he's going to be a weak leader who has no option but to call a GE which Farage wins.
Tory Party is unmanageable right now. That makes an election more likely as time passes.
This. All these priggish troublemakers fade into insignificance if you have a large majority.
Still looks like the remain "squad" will get the blame if we don't leave on 31st October.
An election in that scenario should be decisive.
I suspect it won't be. Remain will pick up a few seats, Labour will win more than expected because a referendum is neither here nor there and the Tories will be roughly the same (say -10 to 20 or so seats).
And Parliament would be even more screwed...
Well that entirely depends on the positioning, the reason for the calling and the campaign.
A competent Brexiteer could sweep the board with the right approach.
Can you show me a competent one?
Equally I suspect it won't be the case - I really can see the Tories losing seats but I'm struggling to see how they win them...
Tory Party is unmanageable right now. That makes an election more likely as time passes.
This. All these priggish troublemakers fade into insignificance if you have a large majority.
Still looks like the remain "squad" will get the blame if we don't leave on 31st October.
An election in that scenario should be decisive.
I suspect it won't be. Remain will pick up a few seats, Labour will win more than expected because a referendum is neither here nor there and the Tories will be roughly the same (say -10 to 20 or so seats).
And Parliament would be even more screwed...
Well that entirely depends on the positioning, the reason for the calling and the campaign.
A competent Brexiteer could sweep the board with the right approach.
How are the Russians doing in their mission to create the first "competent Brexiteer"?
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
The problem for Bozo is some Tories absolutely despise him [...] Some will want to destroy his premiership and will be happy to be out of job anyway to bring him down .
I think we would all do very very well to heed this wise post. Theresa May inspired mainly pity. There are Conservatives who absolutely despise Johnson.
To which it's worth noting that he has the equal and opposite effect on Labour. If there's one person who will unite the dysfunctional PLP it's Boris Johnson. Even Kate Hoey might vote against the tories in a VONC.
Wow thanks . I’ve never been called wise before ! You make a good point re Bozo and Labour .
Hunt simply isn’t despised in that way and May for all her faults was underwhelming but never viscerally hated like Johnson .
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
THAT IS lunacy.
I genuinely thought this was a diatribe against the ERG until I saw the poster's name.
I'm going to regret asking this but which 30? If it's the list above you are including people who had other places to be today like Hospital beds....
Yes, I was confused too. I think our slightly mad friend meant 17, not 30 - there are a few fully paid-up ERG members in the 30.
Let me guess. You call yourself a Conservative, but you support Remain...
Aren't "Remain" and "Conservative" sort of nearly synonyms?
In the same way that Labour doesn't really represent the working classes anymore, the Conservative party don't represent Conservatives anymore.
A better name would be the "blow everything up and see what happens coz immigrants party"
In three years the Tories have gone from promising an à la carte relationship with the EU, where we keep the bits we like and ditch the bits we don't, to a party that is essentially saying we are leaving no matter what and if people die, so be it.
We'd be out already if they'd backed the bloody agreement their government spent two years negotiating.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
I'm sure it's all very lovely that Parliament thinks it's slowly blocking off any possibility of No Deal, but come September/October, they're still going to have to either: - try and force the PM (presumably Johnson) to ask for an extension that the EU might then not grant; or - try and force him to revoke and hope he listens; or - No Confidence him, hope someone can put a majority together in two weeks, or else risk Parliament being dissolved in which case we crash out while the campaign is ongoing.
I can't see a way that any of those three is viable. The first is most likely, but what if either Johnson starts mucking around by making an extension request the EU can't agree to, or if the EU refuse to grant one for their own reasons?
I suspect if we end up with a VoNC the decision will already have been made as to how to get someone with confidence back in (which means the DUP will be on side with the replacement)..
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
On today's Yougov poll Corbyn is more likely to be beaten by the LDs than he is to beat the Tories
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
Talk about viewing the world back to front.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
I'm sure it's all very lovely that Parliament thinks it's slowly blocking off any possibility of No Deal, but come September/October, they're still going to have to either: - try and force the PM (presumably Johnson) to ask for an extension that the EU might then not grant; or - try and force him to revoke and hope he listens; or - No Confidence him, hope someone can put a majority together in two weeks, or else risk Parliament being dissolved in which case we crash out while the campaign is ongoing.
I can't see a way that any of those three is viable. The first is most likely, but what if either Johnson starts mucking around by making an extension request the EU can't agree to, or if the EU refuse to grant one for their own reasons?
If we have an election, we'll have an extension. Boris might be slightly deranged but he's not so irresponsible as to think leaving the EU in the middle of a GE campaign is a good idea.
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
On today's Yougov poll Corbyn is more likely to be beaten by the LDs than he is to beat the Tories
That screws up the Tory "Stop Corbyn" election campaign.
I'm sure it's all very lovely that Parliament thinks it's slowly blocking off any possibility of No Deal, but come September/October, they're still going to have to either: - try and force the PM (presumably Johnson) to ask for an extension that the EU might then not grant; or - try and force him to revoke and hope he listens; or - No Confidence him, hope someone can put a majority together in two weeks, or else risk Parliament being dissolved in which case we crash out while the campaign is ongoing.
I can't see a way that any of those three is viable. The first is most likely, but what if either Johnson starts mucking around by making an extension request the EU can't agree to, or if the EU refuse to grant one for their own reasons?
I suspect if we end up with a VoNC the decision will already have been made as to how to get someone with confidence back in (which means the DUP will be on side with the replacement)..
The Venn diagram of suitable candidates looks a bit er - non intersecting.
The biggest political mistake of recent time is not the Brexit vote but political parties moving to members selecting the leaders directly. They have failed the nation across all the parties.
Indeed with hindsight this democratisation of party politics has been a total disaster, as our two main parties have fallen under the control of extremists who by and large are also complete fucking idiots.
Many thanks to the ERG et al who look to have ensured by their rank stupidity that the odds on the UK remaining in the UK have increased dramatically today. Personally I'd have been content with T. May's deal in line with the Referendum but heigh ho they have pressed self-desrtuct so if we end up remaining it is all on them.
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
On today's Yougov poll Corbyn is more likely to be beaten by the LDs than he is to beat the Tories
That screws up the Tory "Stop Corbyn" election campaign.
I'm not sure that 6 weeks of Ed Davey on the tv would help the LDs.
I'm sure it's all very lovely that Parliament thinks it's slowly blocking off any possibility of No Deal, but come September/October, they're still going to have to either: - try and force the PM (presumably Johnson) to ask for an extension that the EU might then not grant; or - try and force him to revoke and hope he listens; or - No Confidence him, hope someone can put a majority together in two weeks, or else risk Parliament being dissolved in which case we crash out while the campaign is ongoing.
I can't see a way that any of those three is viable. The first is most likely, but what if either Johnson starts mucking around by making an extension request the EU can't agree to, or if the EU refuse to grant one for their own reasons?
I suspect if we end up with a VoNC the decision will already have been made as to how to get someone with confidence back in (which means the DUP will be on side with the replacement)..
The Venn diagram of suitable candidates looks a bit er - non intersecting.
True but the DUP do like additional money so might be bought...
Many thanks to the ERG et al who look to have ensured by their rank stupidity that the odds on the UK remaining in the UK have increased dramatically today. Personally I'd have been content with T. May's deal in line with the Referendum but heigh ho they have pressed self-desrtuct so if we end up remaining it is all on them.
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
I'd much rather be with the 30 than the loony direction the Tories are taking with Boris. Perhaps the ERG loons need to realise what they want will precipitate Corbyn,. It'll be the loons fault not the 30.
On today's Yougov poll Corbyn is more likely to be beaten by the LDs than he is to beat the Tories
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
One snag in that however.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
Until we have a GE, the machinations of the Tory Party are a sideshow. No Deal won't happen unless the people vote for it.
We've been through this in the past - surely No Deal is the default? It occurs if no other option is positively selected to over-ride it?
And Boris Johnson, being a man of his word, has committed not to call one.
Hasn't his big thing been about getting on with Brexit? If Parliament isn't playing ball, I think he'd be justified in going to the country.
The Conservatives do not have a majority. Perhaps the Government might try constructing one instead of repeatedly yelling at it for having the temerity to disagree with it?
Perhaps traitors like Grieve, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin and Gymiah should start acting like MPs of the government they were elected part of, instead of setting the stage for a Marxist government to come into power fairly soon?
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
No! Members of all the main political parties own this mess. There are far too many nutters who do not understand working together.
If Labour members did not elect Corbyn, the ERG could not have had the influence they have. If Tory members follow the ERG, they massively increase the chance of Corbyn. If LD and Greeen members cannot work together, they massively increase the chance of extremist and failed government.
It is time for political members to grow up and realise the world operates on choices and compromises, not lists of demands and a search for purity.
The biggest political mistake of recent time is not the Brexit vote but political parties moving to members selecting the leaders directly. They have failed the nation across all the parties.
Tory members voted for Cameron in 2005, Labour members voted for Blair in 1994 and David Miliband in 2010.
Members will vote for centrists if they feel they are right for the time
Many thanks to the ERG et al who look to have ensured by their rank stupidity that the odds on the UK remaining in the UK have increased dramatically today. Personally I'd have been content with T. May's deal in line with the Referendum but heigh ho they have pressed self-desrtuct so if we end up remaining it is all on them.
Indeed with hindsight this democratisation of party politics has been a total disaster, as our two main parties have fallen under the control of extremists who by and large are also complete fucking idiots.
The extremists are the Blairs, Camerons and Osbornes who hijacked and have controlled the main parties since the 1990s. Invading other countries on lies, handing over our sovereignty no matter how many times we say No, running our towns into the ground whilst north London is handed everything on a plate. Sending billions off to African dictators in Foreign Aid whilst schools cannot even afford textbooks, and pensioners are forced to sell their homes to fund their own cares. Allowing uncontrolled mass migration whilst our young aren't trained because "we cant afford it". Granting Jihadists human rights, whilst ignoring the right of the British people to live in safety and security.
THEY are the extremists and people on right and left have had enough. The liberal elite represent nobody but themselves in their north London bubble.
Comments
If not we have a Labour, LD and SNP Government and extension and EUref2 or revoke
Most of them start with a VONC or a situation where a VONC looks inevitable.
A GONU could call it; Boris could call it; or more likely it is triggered by a failure to find a government which can command a majority.
Edit: I don’t think it will happen, but I do give it a decent chance (25%).
ROTFL
The world is hanging on their lips (metaphorically). Are they going to give it all up at Boris Johnson's behest?
Going backwards
2 weeks to form a parliament after an election (call it 7 days at a push).
25 working days minimum for an election
14 days after a VoNC before an election is automatic.
That to me says if you haven't done things by September 5th its too late and we end up falling out with No Deal...
BUT, I also tend to think that even if there is no election, there is also a good chance that Parliament steps in to avoid No Deal.
There is lots of talk about entryism to the Conservative Party. Do I count as an entryist?
I joined 18 months / 2 years ago. There was lots of talk of leadership crisis and TMay having very little time left. There was lots of talk of JRM as a possible leader, and others from the ERG persuasion.
I joined so I could vote for the candidate who was furthest from the ERG wing of the party.
I wonder how many more there are like me. I've never had a call to poll me or test my opinion. It is possible that entryism works both ways?
Meanwhile the rest of the world moves on focusing on their economies, education, health, environment and making their countries a better place.
But 1/3rd of Tory voters are Remainers and you would do very, very, well not to forget this.
No 1 priority now is to become PM, so 'please electorate - Tory party members'
No1 priority as PM is to remain PM, so 'get MPs to agree some form, any form, of Brexit'
Remember this. If your lot topple HMG over No Deal, you own Corbyn.
It was all so simple before....
But to answer, of course it works both ways. You have cancelled out @Viceroy* bless his cotton (orange) socks.
So he can rant and rave all he wants (and indeed frequently does so) and you can sit there calmly and invalidate his every action and effort.
*Of course I realise that @Viceroy is an amusing made up troll but for the sake of argument the point still stands, there will be others.
The problem for Bozo is some Tories absolutely despise him , Hunt is a bit meh but doesn’t polarize in the same way .
Some will want to destroy his premiership and will be happy to be out of job anyway to bring him down .
Today at least we saw some Tories put the country first , and God bless Bercow for allowing the amendment .
No hopers: The first draw includes 10 candidates: Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Tim Ryan and Marianne Williamson.
Very little to half a chancers: The second draw includes six candidates: Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke and Andrew Yang.
Big four : The final draw includes four candidates: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
I note if we use @rsc1000 favoured metric of Iowa/New Hampshire then BOOTEDGEDGE is moving toward being a top tier rather than a 2nd tier candidate. Because "even" numbers are required though he can't be placed with the top 4 - in reality he's somewhere between the big four and the rest of his seeding pool.
For every Remainer who has joined the Tory Party, 10 Kippers have joined.
That is why Boris is going to win by a landslide, the government is moving towards backing No Deal and deselections are ramping up. We have our hands clasped around the throat of the Tory Party.
To which it's worth noting that he has the equal and opposite effect on Labour. If there's one person who will unite the dysfunctional PLP it's Boris Johnson. Even Kate Hoey might vote against the tories in a VONC.
The lunatics are the 30 who are refusing to follow through on the result of a referendum THEY VOTED FOR. The 30 are voting against the manifesto they THEY STOOD ON. The 30 are voting against what THEIR OWN MEMBERSHIP want.
THAT IS lunacy.
A better name would be the "blow everything up and see what happens coz immigrants party"
Still looks like the remain "squad" will get the blame if we don't leave on 31st October.
An election in that scenario should be decisive.
And Parliament would be even more screwed...
If Labour members did not elect Corbyn, the ERG could not have had the influence they have. If Tory members follow the ERG, they massively increase the chance of Corbyn. If LD and Greeen members cannot work together, they massively increase the chance of extremist and failed government.
It is time for political members to grow up and realise the world operates on choices and compromises, not lists of demands and a search for purity.
The biggest political mistake of recent time is not the Brexit vote but political parties moving to members selecting the leaders directly. They have failed the nation across all the parties.
That aside, when you say "every Remainer who has joined" you are aware that there were one or two members of the Conservative Party before the referendum. Now I appreciate you are planning to rid the, your Party of all the wrong-thinking ones but some might just be remain inclined and not obsessed to the point of twattery by the EU.
Just a thought.
A competent Brexiteer could sweep the board with the right approach.
- try and force the PM (presumably Johnson) to ask for an extension that the EU might then not grant; or
- try and force him to revoke and hope he listens; or
- No Confidence him, hope someone can put a majority together in two weeks, or else risk Parliament being dissolved in which case we crash out while the campaign is ongoing.
I can't see a way that any of those three is viable. The first is most likely, but what if either Johnson starts mucking around by making an extension request the EU can't agree to, or if the EU refuse to grant one for their own reasons?
Can we work out the absentee pairings maybe.
Equally I suspect it won't be the case - I really can see the Tories losing seats but I'm struggling to see how they win them...
Hunt simply isn’t despised in that way and May for all her faults was underwhelming but never viscerally hated like Johnson .
This isn’t going to end well for the Tories .
Time for some MPs not suffering from PTSD.
https://twitter.com/DavidTCDavies/status/1134428719102214144
https://twitter.com/DCBMEP/status/1138718828383342594
We'd be out already if they'd backed the bloody agreement their government spent two years negotiating.
It’ll be green ink next.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1151804497699770368?s=20
Well done to the 17.
Winning bigly!
Members will vote for centrists if they feel they are right for the time
THEY are the extremists and people on right and left have had enough. The liberal elite represent nobody but themselves in their north London bubble.