politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON lea
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war
So it is going to be Johnson and Hunt who will be on the postal ballot of CON members.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
This is by no means a foregone conclusion. Hunt is far more likely to move the membership than Gove. He will go big on his business background and clean life.
If Boris has more dodgy skeletons this could be interesting.
From IDS' Wikipedia:
"In November 2001, he was one of the first politicians to call for an invasion of Iraq and held talks in Washington, DC, with senior US officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney, Condoleezza Rice and Paul Wolfowitz."
Why would he try to undermine Blair enacting a policy he was a vocal advocate for?
IDS never fought a general election but won most votes in both local elections he fought so it is not as odd as suggested
Ahem.
You heard it hear first.
Nothing is ever a foregone conclusion, but it is close. If Hunt could not even win amongst MPs, who are far less fervent Boris fans than the membership, there;s no way he wins the members.
And of course many will vote early on I assume, before Hunt can try to claw back support.
Boris is now going to come under great scrutiny. The membership will warm to Hunt for a number of reasons.
I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.
(Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
Cameron to his great credit fought against Brexit as he didn't believe in it, but once he was defeated he recognised as an opponent of Brexit he couldn't realistically be the one to implement it so he resigned.
May lacked that self-awareness. Despite being an opponent of Brexit she decided after the result that she was the one best placed to implement it. She should have listened to Cameron and followed his lead. It was hubristic to think that despite not believing in it she was best placed to implement it.
May wasn't dealt a bad hand. Cameron was dealt the hand with the result and folded. She saw him fold and chose to pick up the cards.
So: what if everything doesn't remain the same?
*) His campaign could explode. He could say something, or something from his past could come out, that means he either withdraws or, less likely, the members will not vote for him.
*) He could become ill/die. Needless to say, this is not something I wish.
Aside from this, what else could affect the odds ? And how likely are these?
The really funny (but unlikely) thing would be if something comes out that causes Boris to withdraw after members have voted, but before he is officially leader. I assume Hunt would then become leader by default, even if the members hadn't voted for him.
To be clear, while I think Hunt is very bland, I think him a far better leadership prospect than Boris, though neither has any real plan on Brexit (not their official plan A's at any rate). But now is not the time for bland I think, not for this membership looking, in panic, at how to deliver Brexit (requiring a miracle) and neuter Farage.
We may yet end up with Prime Minister Hunt. Just imagine @TSE you might land a 100/1 tip, better than some 50/1 POTUS bet that apparently was landed by some PBer or other ....
The two horse race is more of a betters market, albeit I share Casino Royale's view that there are any number of random personal things that could arise and blow up the current favourite.
The inevitability of all this continues - Boris Johnson has been the Group 1 horse against a bunch of selling platers but Hunt may get a third of the vote and it'll be interesting to see how many of the members bother to vote.
Johnson's interview in the Standard was long on generalities and frighteningly short on specifics - he didn't mention the FTA that someone on here bangs on about ad infinitum and ad nauseam and nor of course was there any hint of an election - all very sober and serious.
The endorsement of the Standard isn't a surprise given Evgeny Lebedev's long standing admiration. It's a Conservative paper in an increasingly non-Conservative city - it has recently announced job cuts and the piles of undistributed papers which litter East Ham well into the evening bear witness to an operation that is floundering.
Hunt is of course the saner candidate and won’t trash the UKs reputation further. It would have been more interesting to have Gove in the final two , not sure how Lady Macbeth will react to the dodgy goings on in the vote.
Then you never know if somebody else has been keeping their powder dry.....
[Is briefly sad...
As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.
I will lay you 9/1 for as much as you like. How much?
For example, if you thought Hunt was likely to be Boris’s opponent, it would have been worth backing him at 26, as you could recently, even though you don’t think he will win the leadership, because now he is down to 14 you can lay him off (i.e. sell your bet) and make a profit.
A similar example now might be to lay (bet against) Boris, even though you think he will win, banking on there being some moment during the hustings when he drops a clanger and his odds suddenly become longer, allowing you to back him again at a profit.
There is probably a website somewhere that explains all this better than I can.
I don't expect Mrs Gove will be happy, and I expect she'll have been holding something back on him to use, but I can't see a scandal making any real difference now.
There's still the possibility that the ERG realise they've been had and pull their support, just like there's a chance the few remaining Tory remainers decide they've had enough and defect. Both low probabilities though - MPs tend to like their jobs.
Still not got a clue if Boris will betray the ERG and ask for an extension, or if he's really mad enough to go for No Deal. Either way, all this seems to be doing is postponing the split in the party. Farage isn't going anywhere and the LDs will revel in the polarisation he causes. Further chaos and inaction awaits!
I've placed bets through various channels and with a few other people.
I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
I don't care what they say I can't get interested in a run-off without Gove.
That's how I feel about it. Scandalous electoral fraud.