67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
He's said he would if a deal is close and absolutely necessary and Boris will do exactly the same.
Boris has said we will leave in October, Hunt has said he would extend.
Just as a matter of interest, looking past Johnson winning a majority for potential no deal at a General Election, how do you see the course of the Government progressing after no deal actually happens? What do you personally feel the economic consequences of no deal will be and how will Johnson deal with them?
Boris wants a FTA for GB, he is not bothered about the backstop, Deal or No Deal he will pivot to that once he gets a majority and can dispense with the DUP and Barnier and the EU would accept it, so No Deal would be temporary
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
There is a lot of truth in that, but Brexit has shown he doesnt care whether he is arguing what he believes, he will argue for whatever is most likely to give him power. Given a fair proportion of his backers are pretty extreme, that may end up being the path he takes. Maybe he pivots back to the centre, maybe he tacks to the right, I dont think anyone really knows what he will do, including himself.
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.
There is convincing evidence that Trump used to be a pretty mainstream Democrat in political outlook.
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
He's said he would if a deal is close and absolutely necessary and Boris will do exactly the same.
Boris has said we will leave in October, Hunt has said he would extend.
Just as a matter of interest, looking past Johnson winning a majority for potential no deal at a General Election, how do you see the course of the Government progressing after no deal actually happens? What do you personally feel the economic consequences of no deal will be and how will Johnson deal with them?
Boris wants a FTA for GB, he is not bothered about the backstop, Deal or No Deal he will pivot to that once he gets a majority and can dispense with the DUP and Barnier and the EU would accept it, so No Deal would be temporary
Couple of months? Does he care about the content of that FTA, or is just having it sufficient?
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
He's said he would if a deal is close and absolutely necessary and Boris will do exactly the same.
Yes, but Hunt has said it. Boris will say nothing and let others project into him.
I rate Rory very highly. But there are times when I think he could quite easily have got the part of 'I' in Withnail and I, if it had said "speaks up a bit more".
For starters, Withnail wrecks the Penrith tea rooms iirc.
I rate Rory very highly. But there are times when I think he could quite easily have got the part of 'I' in Withnail and I, if it had said "speaks up a bit more".
For starters, Withnail wrecks the Penrith tea rooms iirc.
He's more dessicated than Paul McGann. But Withnail did indeed misbehave in Penrith (filmed in Amersham I think).
I rate Rory very highly. But there are times when I think he could quite easily have got the part of 'I' in Withnail and I, if it had said "speaks up a bit more".
For starters, Withnail wrecks the Penrith tea rooms iirc.
He's more dessicated than Paul McGann. But Withnail did indeed misbehave in Penrith (filmed in Amersham I think).
my withnail film book says filmed in a village near milton keynes.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
There is a lot of truth in that, but Brexit has shown he doesnt care whether he is arguing what he believes, he will argue for whatever is most likely to give him power. Given a fair proportion of his backers are pretty extreme, that may end up being the path he takes. Maybe he pivots back to the centre, maybe he tacks to the right, I dont think anyone really knows what he will do, including himself.
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.
There is convincing evidence that Trump used to be a pretty mainstream Democrat in political outlook.
Yes, but he was snubbed by the Democrats, which may help to explain his subsequent animosity.
I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.
Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.
Yep, very, very impressive.
For the first time since 8th June 2017 it feels like someone is actually in control of events (even if they're not yet Prime Minister)
Gavin Williamson is not yet PM?
A good leader builds a good team. And Boris's team has been bloody good in this campaign so far...
The spin is starting. Boris the leader and his great team.
Complete Bullshit.
No different to Theresa May. Same team.
The big difference is that some people both here and abroad had a certain respect for Theresa May. Apart from Tory members is there anyone with a good word for Boris? I've not met any.
Plenty of the Tories on here didn't have a good word for him but they've suddenly developed glassy eyed sickly grins as the Boris rapture comes upon them. Fair play to HYUFD, at least he was consistent on Boris through many slings and arrows.
Let’s just say Bozo miraculously gets a better deal there is simply no time left to put through all the legislation before the end of October .
Putting the 31 October as a hard date means effectively no deal.
I don’t expect much drama before the Autumn however even though the debates won’t change many members minds they could effect MPs .
So currently Tory defections look more likely Autumn but a low chance some might walk immiediately after Bozo becomes PM.
If you were a defector and wanted maximum impact, you would walk on the day he becomes PM! This might well remove the Majority with the DUP. Some Tories might be deselected by the end of july, so have nothing to lose.
I rate Rory very highly. But there are times when I think he could quite easily have got the part of 'I' in Withnail and I, if it had said "speaks up a bit more".
For starters, Withnail wrecks the Penrith tea rooms iirc.
If we're going on looks, then Boris is at the opposite end of the scale. If he was on a beach then the Cetacean Research & Rescue Unit would be getting a lot of calls.
There's something else I'd say about Boris: he talks like a bluffer. I wonder if he's consciously or unconsciously tried to copy his hero's sometimes stuttering, hesitant speech, but whereas Churchill came across powerfully, Boris just seems like a bluffer - at least to me. Boris's speeches seem to lack power and conviction.
(This might be unfair: we only get to hear the best of Churchill's speeches, whereas modern politicians are subjected to far more scrutiny of their words via the 24 hour news and Internet. I bet Churchill had duff speeches as well.)
"Huge congrats to Boris"! Gritted teeth doesn't begin to describe it.
Gove should take a very large amount of responsibility for where we are today with Brexit. If he'd not knifed Boris in 2016, we might well have been spared May - and discovered three years earlier what Boris is truly made of.
A couple of questions, does anybody have any idea when they will anounce the result of the Brecon-Radnor recall petition? (It closed at 5pm today) And if a by-election is called will that affect the amount of coverage that can be given by TV to the Conservative (and Lib-Dem) leadership contests?
Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
Indeed - Bryan Gould was the man I always wanted to see as Labour leader. Very bright and such a lovely guy too. A moderniser of a very different ilk to Blair.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
There is a lot of truth in that, but Brexit has shown he doesnt care whether he is arguing what he believes, he will argue for whatever is most likely to give him power. Given a fair proportion of his backers are pretty extreme, that may end up being the path he takes. Maybe he pivots back to the centre, maybe he tacks to the right, I dont think anyone really knows what he will do, including himself.
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.
There is convincing evidence that Trump used to be a pretty mainstream Democrat in political outlook.
Yes, but he was snubbed by the Democrats, which may help to explain his subsequent animosity.
Is there any evidence he used to really be a mainstream Democrat?
There's certainly evidence he used to be a racist asshat, and still is exactly what he always was. So quite a lot like Johnson
Yes, this is precisely why the last dice roll of Boris is correct. But a Gove challenge would have been superior in the members run off to forge the sword so to speak.
What is success? If it’s us leaving the EU then that, is my mind failure. Success for whom, those wanting middle income tax cuts? Or is it saving the Tory party?
The EU (like the British state) only deserves to exist if it benefits its citizens.
If Boris Johnson is able to make a success of the UK outside the EU, then everyone should be cheering.
Now, the big question is whether he can. And we shall see.
Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
He went back to NZ and made a difference didn’t he? Ended political career, yes but arguably did more good.
The point is that Hunt needs to tread carefully. A heavy defeat could be crtically damaging.
Maybe Hunt will surprise and land some serious punches?
Or has someone been saving up release of a real scandal on Boris until now, the moment of truth....?
Now that a "remainer" has been engineered into the second slot I think the membership will vote for Johnson whatever comes out now.
We actually need a Brexiteer to take charge now, if Hunt were to win we would be right back to the May situation and all the leavers will just blame everything on Hunt really being a remainer.
Although I can't see how he will do it I find myself in the odd situation of actually wanting Johnson to to get Brexit sorted successfully because if he doesn't we end up with a Corbyn government and I think that needs to be avoided at all costs.
Let’s just say Bozo miraculously gets a better deal there is simply no time left to put through all the legislation before the end of October .
Putting the 31 October as a hard date means effectively no deal.
I don’t expect much drama before the Autumn however even though the debates won’t change many members minds they could effect MPs .
So currently Tory defections look more likely Autumn but a low chance some might walk immiediately after Bozo becomes PM.
If you were a defector and wanted maximum impact, you would walk on the day he becomes PM! This might well remove the Majority with the DUP. Some Tories might be deselected by the end of july, so have nothing to lose.
There would be a certain poetic justice in Johnson finally succeeding in becoming leader by shamelessly courting the Brexiteers, only to lose the government's majority through the Brexiteers deselecting their opponents.
What is success? If it’s us leaving the EU then that, is my mind failure. Success for whom, those wanting middle income tax cuts? Or is it saving the Tory party?
The EU (like the British state) only deserves to exist if it benefits its citizens.
If Boris Johnson is able to make a success of the UK outside the EU, then everyone should be cheering.
Now, the big question is whether he can. And we shall see.
First of all he's got to find a way to make us leave the EU. I think he will struggle with that tbh.
And Brexit Party 193, Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 280 and more than Labour on 238.
Only Labour plus LDs plus SNP would have a majority
Which would mean 2nd Ref without a doubt.
Quite possibly.
Though I would not guarantee Remain would win it.
What is clear is Boris is the Tories only chance of a majority and staying in power now, Hunt for all his qualities risks Nigel Farage becoming Leader of the Opposition to a Corbyn minority government with the Tories falling to third
Let’s just say Bozo miraculously gets a better deal there is simply no time left to put through all the legislation before the end of October .
Putting the 31 October as a hard date means effectively no deal.
I don’t expect much drama before the Autumn however even though the debates won’t change many members minds they could effect MPs .
So currently Tory defections look more likely Autumn but a low chance some might walk immiediately after Bozo becomes PM.
If you were a defector and wanted maximum impact, you would walk on the day he becomes PM! This might well remove the Majority with the DUP. Some Tories might be deselected by the end of july, so have nothing to lose.
There would be a certain poetic justice in Johnson finally succeeding in becoming leader by shamelessly courting the Brexiteers, only to lose the government's majority through the Brexiteers deselecting their opponents.
Irony indeed!
Does anyone have a list of who has been selected and who is known to be at risk?
There’s likely to be more tension and excitement at a WI bake sale than the Bozo v Hunt debates .
The media are obviously pissed off that they didn’t get the Gove v Bozo final two . The problem is nothing Bozo can do gaff wise will change the dial .
He could decapitate Bambi whilst at the same time behead a couple of audience members and the Membership death cult would call it high jinks, and Bozo is just being a Bozo .
What is success? If it’s us leaving the EU then that, is my mind failure. Success for whom, those wanting middle income tax cuts? Or is it saving the Tory party?
The EU (like the British state) only deserves to exist if it benefits its citizens.
If Boris Johnson is able to make a success of the UK outside the EU, then everyone should be cheering.
Now, the big question is whether he can. And we shall see.
No, the big question is what is meant by success?
Leavers are going to detect success in a cesspit, and Remainers going to see failure even on celestial clouds.
And Brexit Party 193, Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 280 and more than Labour on 238.
Only Labour plus LDs plus SNP would have a majority
Which would mean 2nd Ref without a doubt.
Quite possibly.
Though I would not guarantee Remain would win it.
What is clear is Boris is the Tories only chance of a majority and staying in power now, Hunt for all his qualities risks Nigel Farage becoming Leader of the Opposition to a Corbyn minority government with the Tories falling to third
All very possible. I certainly agree that a 2nd ref could easily end up endorsing Deal or No Deal.
There are no good paths for the Tories from here... unless the EU suddenly decided to make a major concession. And really, why would they?
The G7 average is interesting, but I'd like to see the lines for each G7 country individually.
The OECD numbers have us well ahead of Japan, at a 0.3% annual growth over the last three years. (Japan is -0.3%.) However, we lag Italy (0.9%), France (1.8%), Germany (1.9%), Canada (2.2%) and the US (3.8%).
And Brexit Party 193, Tories plus Brexit Party combined on 280 and more than Labour on 238.
Only Labour plus LDs plus SNP would have a majority
Which would mean 2nd Ref without a doubt.
Quite possibly.
Though I would not guarantee Remain would win it.
What is clear is Boris is the Tories only chance of a majority and staying in power now, Hunt for all his qualities risks Nigel Farage becoming Leader of the Opposition to a Corbyn minority government with the Tories falling to third
All very possible. I certainly agree that a 2nd ref could easily end up endorsing Deal or No Deal.
There are no good paths for the Tories from here... unless the EU suddenly decided to make a major concession. And really, why would they?
The Tories need a majority to deliver a FTA for GB, which is what Boris really wants, the NI backstop does not bother him but the DUP will block any agreement with the backstop.
If Corbyn becomes PM propped up by the SNP and LDs with Remain scraping home in EUref2 though do not rule out Farage following him as PM at the subsequent general election
Let’s just say Bozo miraculously gets a better deal there is simply no time left to put through all the legislation before the end of October .
Putting the 31 October as a hard date means effectively no deal.
I don’t expect much drama before the Autumn however even though the debates won’t change many members minds they could effect MPs .
So currently Tory defections look more likely Autumn but a low chance some might walk immiediately after Bozo becomes PM.
If you were a defector and wanted maximum impact, you would walk on the day he becomes PM! This might well remove the Majority with the DUP. Some Tories might be deselected by the end of july, so have nothing to lose.
There would be a certain poetic justice in Johnson finally succeeding in becoming leader by shamelessly courting the Brexiteers, only to lose the government's majority through the Brexiteers deselecting their opponents.
Irony indeed!
Does anyone have a list of who has been selected and who is known to be at risk?
Philip Lee & Dominic Greave are.both facing constitiency parties opposed to them but they have not been formally deselected when i checked the media yesterday.. There are others who have walked already like Nick Boles.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
There is a lot of truth in that, but Brexit has shown he doesnt care whether he is arguing what he believes, he will argue for whatever is most likely to give him power. Given a fair proportion of his backers are pretty extreme, that may end up being the path he takes. Maybe he pivots back to the centre, maybe he tacks to the right, I dont think anyone really knows what he will do, including himself.
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.
There is convincing evidence that Trump used to be a pretty mainstream Democrat in political outlook.
I think the issue with Trump - above all - is the way he behaves.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
There is a lot of truth in that, but Brexit has shown he doesnt care whether he is arguing what he believes, he will argue for whatever is most likely to give him power. Given a fair proportion of his backers are pretty extreme, that may end up being the path he takes. Maybe he pivots back to the centre, maybe he tacks to the right, I dont think anyone really knows what he will do, including himself.
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.
He doesn't need more power now though. He will be PM and on the clock. If he prevaricates he will lose it.
The countries and Boris's interests will be 100% aligned. Make a success of this.
The G7 average is interesting, but I'd like to see the lines for each G7 country individually.
The OECD numbers have us well ahead of Japan, at a 0.3% annual growth over the last three years. (Japan is -0.3%.) However, we lag Italy (0.9%), France (1.8%), Germany (1.9%), Canada (2.2%) and the US (3.8%).
How does that compare at per capita GDP? as an expanding population while Japan is contracting surely we move down the table.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
There is a lot of truth in that, but Brexit has shown he doesnt care whether he is arguing what he believes, he will argue for whatever is most likely to give him power. Given a fair proportion of his backers are pretty extreme, that may end up being the path he takes. Maybe he pivots back to the centre, maybe he tacks to the right, I dont think anyone really knows what he will do, including himself.
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.
There is convincing evidence that Trump used to be a pretty mainstream Democrat in political outlook.
I think the issue with Trump - above all - is the way he behaves.
It is cumulative, if Trump behaved badly but was competent and consistent some would forgive the behaviour. It is the mix of disgraceful behaviour, gross incompetence, inconsistency and narcissism that unsurprisingly makes him unpopular with most.
Comments
Putting the 31 October as a hard date means effectively no deal.
I don’t expect much drama before the Autumn however even though the debates won’t change many members minds they could effect MPs .
So currently Tory defections look more likely Autumn but a low chance some might walk immiediately after Bozo becomes PM.
Empty vessel strategy. Much like May.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1141770627449348099?s=20
Best wishes to BJO with my cardiac colleagues btw
For starters, Withnail wrecks the Penrith tea rooms iirc.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_education
Hope she’s not at Ascot.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
There's something else I'd say about Boris: he talks like a bluffer. I wonder if he's consciously or unconsciously tried to copy his hero's sometimes stuttering, hesitant speech, but whereas Churchill came across powerfully, Boris just seems like a bluffer - at least to me. Boris's speeches seem to lack power and conviction.
(This might be unfair: we only get to hear the best of Churchill's speeches, whereas modern politicians are subjected to far more scrutiny of their words via the 24 hour news and Internet. I bet Churchill had duff speeches as well.)
That's a good, workable majority.
Then:
Oh.
Gove, you pillock. And for what?
Only Labour plus LDs plus SNP would have a majority
There's certainly evidence he used to be a racist asshat, and still is exactly what he always was.
So quite a lot like Johnson
https://twitter.com/beany_1/status/1141800923158798336?s=21
https://twitter.com/sandbach/status/1141801216676126726?s=21
If Boris Johnson is able to make a success of the UK outside the EU, then everyone should be cheering.
Now, the big question is whether he can. And we shall see.
We actually need a Brexiteer to take charge now, if Hunt were to win we would be right back to the May situation and all the leavers will just blame everything on Hunt really being a remainer.
Although I can't see how he will do it I find myself in the odd situation of actually wanting Johnson to to get Brexit sorted successfully because if he doesn't we end up with a Corbyn government and I think that needs to be avoided at all costs.
Though I would not guarantee Remain would win it.
What is clear is Boris is the Tories only chance of a majority and staying in power now, Hunt for all his qualities risks Nigel Farage becoming Leader of the Opposition to a Corbyn minority government with the Tories falling to third
Does anyone have a list of who has been selected and who is known to be at risk?
The media are obviously pissed off that they didn’t get the Gove v Bozo final two . The problem is nothing Bozo can do gaff wise will change the dial .
He could decapitate Bambi whilst at the same time behead a couple of audience members and the Membership death cult would call it high jinks, and Bozo is just being a Bozo .
He was found to be sane.
Leavers are going to detect success in a cesspit, and Remainers going to see failure even on celestial clouds.
Anyone expecting objective evaluation is deluded.
There are no good paths for the Tories from here... unless the EU suddenly decided to make a major concession. And really, why would they?
Nobody likes to lose and nobody likes to see the winner actually being not-all-that-bad - until the point at which they switch allegiances, obviously.
If Corbyn becomes PM propped up by the SNP and LDs with Remain scraping home in EUref2 though do not rule out Farage following him as PM at the subsequent general election
The countries and Boris's interests will be 100% aligned. Make a success of this.
Go through Betfair and look at the lowest price a person was priced at in the Con Next Leader market, find the most unbelievable low.
For me it was the 51.58 pounds sterling matched on Ruth Davidson at, hold onto your hat, EVENS.