May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North.
No she wasn't. One, because no PM who survived twelve years in office can be considered a 'worst' PM, and two, because there at least a dozen PMs that have been far worse than May. Goderich, Portland, Melbourne, Aberdeen, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden all spring to mind without breaking a sweat.
What you really mean is, you don't like her and Lord North is the only other PM you've ever heard something bad about.
May wasn't in office as PM for 12 years.
No, but Lord North was.
The rest of your post was frankly guff. If you think some indecisiveness is worse than conspiring to launch an illegal war to expropriate sovereign territory from another state, your views are not worth responding to.
Sorry, I didn't realise Tony Blair was in the conversation.
Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.
As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.
I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
Nick Palmer once said he thought Gove was the sort of person who if you made him ambassador to Outer Mongolia he would rapidly come up with lots of ideas on how to further Anglo-Mongolian relations.
I think this is an interesting hypothesis and it deserves testing.
I think that's right.
It's a really positive side of him that he considers no job beneath him.
No job is too low for such a talent.
And with that, I have some marking to do. Enjoy your evening.
On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.
I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
Well done to everyone who has gotten out of the red with Boris recently, can't be easy I imagine when he's favourite. The 'golden rule' of laying the favourite looks a bit doomed this time.
The inexcusable part of my betting was blowing £120 of profit on Boris because I joined in the bedwetting over Rory Stewart.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
Ouch, not great. Best of luck and fingers crossed it isn't as bad as initial reports.
The skills you need to win a party leadership campaign whilst in office are very different to those you need as a leader to win elections and govern effectively.
On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.
I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
Likewise. Thankfully laying JRM very heavily, and Leadsom then Rory significantly, has got my losses on Boris down to the point where I won’t mind. If I am lucky and he wobbles during the campaign, I may be able to get back to evens. Green on Hunt, so here’s hoping.
On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.
I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
Well done to everyone who has gotten out of the red with Boris recently, can't be easy I imagine when he's favourite. The 'golden rule' of laying the favourite looks a bit doomed this time.
The inexcusable part of my betting was blowing £120 of profit on Boris because I joined in the bedwetting over Rory Stewart.
I didn't get that at all. Stewart was the biggest lay since Leadsom.
He scraped through the earlier rounds, had a very low ceiling, no real momentum and the polls showed the Tories would be annihilated if they elected him. It couldn't be Stewart.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
Non fans think UKIP and TBP are no different in policy, so why were the former getting 7-8% in the polls until the latter came along and started getting mid 20s?
Or why did one get 3% in the Euros and the other ten times that?
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.
Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.
I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
I think you are seeing what you hope will be true. What's the easiest path for Boris to take is the key question. It's the reason May delayed over and over, and it will inform what Boris does.
Boris needs to be decisive, organised and make choices. Something May failed to do.
When Britain had voted to "take back control" May said 'I'll do it' then when everyone said 'well, what are you doing?' she just ummed and ahhed. Until eventually everyone dug their own trenches around her while she continued to prevaricate.
Boris can't delay. He needs to pick a path and go for it.
There are lots of criticisms of May, but indecision, disorganisation, and a failure to make choices aren't foremost among them.
If you'd said poor decision making, not realising the task of PM, and making the wrong choices, fair enough.
If anything, she was TOO decisive. She said, "I know what people have voted for. They wanted access to markets but much less immigration. So I'll get that, MPs will back it because I'm right, and that's all good." And she essentially got that deal.
What she failed to do is take people with her, which was fatal particularly after the 2017 election result.
She was also very decisive on calling the 2017 General Election - a big and disastrous decision.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
I agree he is not an extremist. But Brexit is the key.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
Blimey. BJO, that gives some perspective. All the very best.
I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.
Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.
Yeah, there's a semblance of authority in all of this.
Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
He went back to NZ and made a difference didn’t he? Ended political career, yes but arguably did more good.
The point is that Hunt needs to tread carefully. A heavy defeat could be crtically damaging.
Maybe Hunt will surprise and land some serious punches?
I hope so. I like Hunt. It would be rubbish if this damaged him.
I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.
Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.
I wish I could share your optimism.
Always look on the bright side of life. As the song goes.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
Non fans think UKIP and TBP are no different in policy, so why were the former getting 7-8% in the polls until the latter came along and started getting mid 20s?
Or why did one get 3% in the Euros and the other ten times that?
It isn't all policy. UKIP had trashed their own brand in various ways - brawling in meetings, fiddling expenses, crass behaviour of some elected members, repeated changes of leader. They were an embarrassing rabble.
Farage had distanced himself from that, retained a strong brand, and leveraged it into something basically the same but without the baggage in the eyes of voters.
There was also a perceived policy difference. UKIP had tried to become a broad anti-Muslim, law'n'order, right wing force. Farage did manage to say "Look, here's Kate Hoey and a variety of people... you don't need to be on the hard right, this is simply about honouring the will of YOU in 2016."
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
Don't even think like that. You are in the right place getting the care you need. Take it easy and best of luck with everything.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Shocking news. I hope the diagnosis is good and the treatment gets you well again soon.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
So it will be PM Bonking Boris followed by Jezza (or possibly Marxist McDonnell)....searching Canadian real estate as we speak.
Way ahead of you.
FYI - Canada is bloody cold.
Vancouver isn't too bad (and lovely in the summer)....but the real estate prices are sky high.
Montréal is great, whatever the weather (their French is appalling, mind you). Toronna less so. And as for St. John’s, may I introduce you to screech.
Following on from earlier comments about crappiest food countries. Somebody said Canada, they obviously never been to Montreal. Lots of very good restaurants.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
So it will be PM Bonking Boris followed by Jezza (or possibly Marxist McDonnell)....searching Canadian real estate as we speak.
Way ahead of you.
FYI - Canada is bloody cold.
Vancouver isn't too bad (and lovely in the summer)....but the real estate prices are sky high.
Montréal is great, whatever the weather (their French is appalling, mind you). Toronna less so. And as for St. John’s, may I introduce you to screech.
Following on from earlier comments about crappiest food countries. Somebody said Canada, they obviously never been to Montreal. Lots of very good restaurants.
Unfortunately those restaurants serve poutine. Quebec exists in a miasma of maple syrup fumes and icing sugar. Their culinary hero is Tim Horton*, an ice hockey player who died in an unfortunate car crash. The Plateau in Montréal is great.
*The chain has made it to Belfast. Has it arrived in London?
On topic - to be fair, the poll doesn't ask "who was the best leader?". It asks whether you have a favourable view of them or not. Being a past leader simply gets them into the poll, it doesn't ask them to assess their performance in the role.
So it will be PM Bonking Boris followed by Jezza (or possibly Marxist McDonnell)....searching Canadian real estate as we speak.
Way ahead of you.
FYI - Canada is bloody cold.
Vancouver isn't too bad (and lovely in the summer)....but the real estate prices are sky high.
Montréal is great, whatever the weather (their French is appalling, mind you). Toronna less so. And as for St. John’s, may I introduce you to screech.
Following on from earlier comments about crappiest food countries. Somebody said Canada, they obviously never been to Montreal. Lots of very good restaurants.
The Garibaldi Lift Company in Whistler does the best nachos on the planet.
On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.
I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
Well done to everyone who has gotten out of the red with Boris recently, can't be easy I imagine when he's favourite. The 'golden rule' of laying the favourite looks a bit doomed this time.
The inexcusable part of my betting was blowing £120 of profit on Boris because I joined in the bedwetting over Rory Stewart.
I didn't get that at all. Stewart was the biggest lay since Leadsom.
He scraped through the earlier rounds, had a very low ceiling, no real momentum and the polls showed the Tories would be annihilated if they elected him. It couldn't be Stewart.
MPs are, infuriatingly, often both dumb as bricks and whip smart. They know their constituencies. They know what will fly with their local activists and they know from door knocking what will get them out a hole. They knew that Rory took non-Tory voters about a quarter inch towards the Tories - when the required unit of measurement is miles. They know the people they have lost to the Brexit Party. They know that of those on offer, only Boris has a chance of bringing them back.
Anyone touting Rory's chances really, really didn't know Tory MPs. And I wonder if like me, they are expecting that if ever there was a time for Boris to pull his finger out and confound his legions of critics, now is that time. Boris just HAS to be smarter than simply getting the job, being crap and being booted out after months. I suspect he would just love to be given the long-term respect that Cameron had - and blew. Because of how much that woud hurt Cameron. Just doing a solid job as PM will confound almost everyone in the Chatterati.
And don't be amazed if he turns out to be really quite good. It is the biggest challenge of his life. He'll be remembered for little else. Step up to the plate, Mr Johnson - and knock it out the park. For all our sakes.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
My position on the last two, assuming the next Conservative leader becomes next Prime Minister, is:
Boris Johnson +1,134.33 Jeremy Hunt +2,185.76
If the next Conservative leader is not the next Prime Minister it gets more interesting.
I have a similar-ish position on next PM. I would have imagined that I'd made most money on Corbyn, Milliband, etc. It turns out not so though. Only Stewart has been a clear and substantial winner really.
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
The problems with Johnson aren't his political positions per se. It's that there's no evidence that he believes in anything and is prepared to advocate literally any position if it gets him out of a spot. Now being flexible is generally a strength in a politician as long as you have a clear idea of what you want to achieve as an end point. The worst politicians are often the ones who care more about the process than the end state, or at least aren't prepared to adapt the process even if it jeopardises the end state. But you have to believe that you are trying to achieve something.
And all past history suggests further that Johnson adopts political positions like the newspaper opinion columnist he is, without much in the way of long term thought, research and analysis, just whatever seems to read well on paper. And to an artificial deadline.
My position on the last two, assuming the next Conservative leader becomes next Prime Minister, is:
Boris Johnson +1,134.33 Jeremy Hunt +2,185.76
If the next Conservative leader is not the next Prime Minister it gets more interesting.
What would be the scenario where that happens ? Theresa May dying in the next month ? or Grieve etc forcing a confidence vote before the leadership race is finished ?
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
Sorry to hear that BJO and hope you get better soon
My position on the last two, assuming the next Conservative leader becomes next Prime Minister, is:
Boris Johnson +1,134.33 Jeremy Hunt +2,185.76
If the next Conservative leader is not the next Prime Minister it gets more interesting.
What would be the scenario where that happens ? Theresa May dying in the next month ? or Grieve etc forcing a confidence vote before the leadership race is finished ?
The Conservatives are a minority and one wing is extremely unhappy. It only takes a few defections for it to be unclear whether the next Conservative leader can command the confidence of the Commons.
On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.
I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
Well done to everyone who has gotten out of the red with Boris recently, can't be easy I imagine when he's favourite. The 'golden rule' of laying the favourite looks a bit doomed this time.
The inexcusable part of my betting was blowing £120 of profit on Boris because I joined in the bedwetting over Rory Stewart.
I didn't get that at all. Stewart was the biggest lay since Leadsom.
He scraped through the earlier rounds, had a very low ceiling, no real momentum and the polls showed the Tories would be annihilated if they elected him. It couldn't be Stewart.
MPs are, infuriatingly, often both dumb as bricks and whip smart. They know their constituencies. They know what will fly with their local activists and they know from door knocking what will get them out a hole. They knew that Rory took non-Tory voters about a quarter inch towards the Tories - when the required unit of measurement is miles. They know the people they have lost to the Brexit Party. They know that of those on offer, only Boris has a chance of bringing them back.
Anyone touting Rory's chances really, really didn't know Tory MPs. And I wonder if like me, they are expecting that if ever there was a time for Boris to pull his finger out and confound his legions of critics, now is that time. Boris just HAS to be smarter than simply getting the job, being crap and being booted out after months. I suspect he would just love to be given the long-term respect that Cameron had - and blew. Because of how much that woud hurt Cameron. Just doing a solid job as PM will confound almost everyone in the Chatterati.
And don't be amazed if he turns out to be really quite good. It is the biggest challenge of his life. He'll be remembered for little else. Step up to the plate, Mr Johnson - and knock it out the park. For all our sakes.
On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.
I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
Well done to everyone who has gotten out of the red with Boris recently, can't be easy I imagine when he's favourite. The 'golden rule' of laying the favourite looks a bit doomed this time.
The inexcusable part of my betting was blowing £120 of profit on Boris because I joined in the bedwetting over Rory Stewart.
I didn't get that at all. Stewart was the biggest lay since Leadsom.
He scraped through the earlier rounds, had a very low ceiling, no real momentum and the polls showed the Tories would be annihilated if they elected him. It couldn't be Stewart.
MPs are, infuriatingly, often both dumb as bricks and whip smart. They know their constituencies. They know what will fly with their local activists and they know from door knocking what will get them out a hole. They knew that Rory took non-Tory voters about a quarter inch towards the Tories - when the required unit of measurement is miles. They know the people they have lost to the Brexit Party. They know that of those on offer, only Boris has a chance of bringing them back.
Anyone touting Rory's chances really, really didn't know Tory MPs. And I wonder if like me, they are expecting that if ever there was a time for Boris to pull his finger out and confound his legions of critics, now is that time. Boris just HAS to be smarter than simply getting the job, being crap and being booted out after months. I suspect he would just love to be given the long-term respect that Cameron had - and blew. Because of how much that woud hurt Cameron. Just doing a solid job as PM will confound almost everyone in the Chatterati.
And don't be amazed if he turns out to be really quite good. It is the biggest challenge of his life. He'll be remembered for little else. Step up to the plate, Mr Johnson - and knock it out the park. For all our sakes.
What is success? If it’s us leaving the EU then that, is my mind failure. Success for whom, those wanting middle income tax cuts? Or is it saving the Tory party?
May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North.
No she wasn't. One, because no PM who survived twelve years in office can be considered a 'worst' PM, and two, because there at least a dozen PMs that have been far worse than May. Goderich, Portland, Melbourne, Aberdeen, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden all spring to mind without breaking a sweat.
What you really mean is, you don't like her and Lord North is the only other PM you've ever heard something bad about.
Indeed, Lord North lost the American colonies and died shortly after, May leaves office with the Union still intact on her watch, that was not guaranteed when she took over
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
Despite it being almost inevitable regardless. Strange world.
I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.
Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.
Yep, very, very impressive.
For the first time since 8th June 2017 it feels like someone is actually in control of events (even if they're not yet Prime Minister)
Gavin Williamson is not yet PM?
A good leader builds a good team. And Boris's team has been bloody good in this campaign so far...
The spin is starting. Boris the leader and his great team.
Complete Bullshit.
No different to Theresa May. Same team.
The big difference is that some people both here and abroad had a certain respect for Theresa May. Apart from Tory members is there anyone with a good word for Boris? I've not met any.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
Best wishes Comrade. Hopefully you'll be back manning the barricades soon!
On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.
I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
Well done to everyone who has gotten out of the red with Boris recently, can't be easy I imagine when he's favourite. The 'golden rule' of laying the favourite looks a bit doomed this time.
The inexcusable part of my betting was blowing £120 of profit on Boris because I joined in the bedwetting over Rory Stewart.
I didn't get that at all. Stewart was the biggest lay since Leadsom.
He scraped through the earlier rounds, had a very low ceiling, no real momentum and the polls showed the Tories would be annihilated if they elected him. It couldn't be Stewart.
MPs are, infuriatingly, often both dumb as bricks and whip smart. They know their constituencies. They know what will fly with their local activists and they know from door knocking what will get them out a hole. They knew that Rory took non-Tory voters about a quarter inch towards the Tories - when the required unit of measurement is miles. They know the people they have lost to the Brexit Party. They know that of those on offer, only Boris has a chance of bringing them back.
Anyone touting Rory's chances really, really didn't know Tory MPs. And I wonder if like me, they are expecting that if ever there was a time for Boris to pull his finger out and confound his legions of critics, now is that time. Boris just HAS to be smarter than simply getting the job, being crap and being booted out after months. I suspect he would just love to be given the long-term respect that Cameron had - and blew. Because of how much that woud hurt Cameron. Just doing a solid job as PM will confound almost everyone in the Chatterati.
And don't be amazed if he turns out to be really quite good. It is the biggest challenge of his life. He'll be remembered for little else. Step up to the plate, Mr Johnson - and knock it out the park. For all our sakes.
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
He's said he would if a deal is close and absolutely necessary and Boris will do exactly the same.
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North.
No she wasn't. One, because no PM who survived twelve years in office can be considered a 'worst' PM, and two, because there at least a dozen PMs that have been far worse than May. Goderich, Portland, Melbourne, Aberdeen, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden all spring to mind without breaking a sweat.
What you really mean is, you don't like her and Lord North is the only other PM you've ever heard something bad about.
Indeed, Lord North lost the American colonies and died shortly after, May leaves office with the Union still intact on her watch, that was not guaranteed when she took over
Has anyone ever set a lower bar than their country still existing when a PM leaves office?
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
He's said he would if a deal is close and absolutely necessary and Boris will do exactly the same.
Boris has said we will leave in October, Hunt has said he would extend.
Non fans think UKIP and TBP are no different in policy, so why were the former getting 7-8% in the polls until the latter came along and started getting mid 20s?
Or why did one get 3% in the Euros and the other ten times that?
Why ? Both want to leave the EU and both are racist parties.
May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North.
No she wasn't. One, because no PM who survived twelve years in office can be considered a 'worst' PM, and two, because there at least a dozen PMs that have been far worse than May. Goderich, Portland, Melbourne, Aberdeen, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden all spring to mind without breaking a sweat.
What you really mean is, you don't like her and Lord North is the only other PM you've ever heard something bad about.
Indeed, Lord North lost the American colonies and died shortly after, May leaves office with the Union still intact on her watch, that was not guaranteed when she took over
Has anyone ever set a lower bar than their country still existing when a PM leaves office?
Well that is a pretty significant bar (though Scots of course claim they are already a country just one in union with England)
Non fans think UKIP and TBP are no different in policy, so why were the former getting 7-8% in the polls until the latter came along and started getting mid 20s?
Or why did one get 3% in the Euros and the other ten times that?
Why ? Both want to leave the EU and both are racist parties.
And both hve no other policies. Are they going to pack up and go home now they have one of their own as presumptive PM?
So it will be PM Bonking Boris followed by Jezza (or possibly Marxist McDonnell)....searching Canadian real estate as we speak.
Way ahead of you.
FYI - Canada is bloody cold.
Vancouver isn't too bad (and lovely in the summer)....but the real estate prices are sky high.
Montréal is great, whatever the weather (their French is appalling, mind you). Toronna less so. And as for St. John’s, may I introduce you to screech.
Following on from earlier comments about crappiest food countries. Somebody said Canada, they obviously never been to Montreal. Lots of very good restaurants.
Jacques Chirac said the British had worse food than anyone bar the Finns
My position on the last two, assuming the next Conservative leader becomes next Prime Minister, is:
Boris Johnson +1,134.33 Jeremy Hunt +2,185.76
If the next Conservative leader is not the next Prime Minister it gets more interesting.
What would be the scenario where that happens ? Theresa May dying in the next month ? or Grieve etc forcing a confidence vote before the leadership race is finished ?
Yes, I guess we could be in the 14 day period after a PM (May) has lost a confidence vote and during which a new PM (presumably the Conservative leader at that time) needs to win one to avoid Parliament being dissolved.
That's the only way I can see that the winner of the Hunt/Johnson contest wouldn't immediately be asked to form a Government, and accept becoming PM.
Of course, they'd also need to lose the ensuing General Election, otherwise they'd still be next PM.
It's all highly unlikely. I can see Johnson in particular losing a confidence vote quite quickly if he tacks to one extreme. But the numbers aren't there to do it before he's in post - as the recent Labour vote on taking control of the agenda showed, even the Tory left are willing to give the new PM some chance to see how it goes.
Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
He went back to NZ and made a difference didn’t he? Ended political career, yes but arguably did more good.
The point is that Hunt needs to tread carefully. A heavy defeat could be crtically damaging.
Maybe Hunt will surprise and land some serious punches?
Or has someone been saving up release of a real scandal on Boris until now, the moment of truth....?
Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
He went back to NZ and made a difference didn’t he? Ended political career, yes but arguably did more good.
The point is that Hunt needs to tread carefully. A heavy defeat could be crtically damaging.
Maybe Hunt will surprise and land some serious punches?
Or has someone been saving up release of a real scandal on Boris until now, the moment of truth....?
It's a dangerous game going all in on Boris this early.
67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.
I wouldn't take it for granted.
Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
If Hunt then tacked to full Leave with the competence to prove it and expose Boris in the hustings he could then still win with the members.
Hunt has already said he would extend beyond October, he cannot get away from that and the members will not vote for that
He's said he would if a deal is close and absolutely necessary and Boris will do exactly the same.
Boris has said we will leave in October, Hunt has said he would extend.
Just as a matter of interest, looking past Johnson winning a majority for potential no deal at a General Election, how do you see the course of the Government progressing after no deal actually happens? What do you personally feel the economic consequences of no deal will be and how will Johnson deal with them?
In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.
Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.
Easy win for Boris now.
My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
A stent in the right place and they'll have you out in 24 hours. It's a conveyor belt. Good luck and get a copy of the angiogram. They look good in a frame
I think we're already seeing signs of how Borisphobes will justify staying within the fold. It's like watching Labour moderates under Corbyn. Hopefully he will be a better leader than Corbyn.
He will be.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
There is a lot of truth in that, but Brexit has shown he doesnt care whether he is arguing what he believes, he will argue for whatever is most likely to give him power. Given a fair proportion of his backers are pretty extreme, that may end up being the path he takes. Maybe he pivots back to the centre, maybe he tacks to the right, I dont think anyone really knows what he will do, including himself.
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.
Comments
And with that, I have some marking to do. Enjoy your evening.
He scraped through the earlier rounds, had a very low ceiling, no real momentum and the polls showed the Tories would be annihilated if they elected him. It couldn't be Stewart.
Or why did one get 3% in the Euros and the other ten times that?
If you'd said poor decision making, not realising the task of PM, and making the wrong choices, fair enough.
If anything, she was TOO decisive. She said, "I know what people have voted for. They wanted access to markets but much less immigration. So I'll get that, MPs will back it because I'm right, and that's all good." And she essentially got that deal.
What she failed to do is take people with her, which was fatal particularly after the 2017 election result.
She was also very decisive on calling the 2017 General Election - a big and disastrous decision.
Take Brexit out of the equation, take his clownish persona out of the equation, politically he is a very moderate MP. He is far closer to Osborne/Cameron than the extremist he gets painted as or that Corbyn really is.
TSE, you understand the world well enough to know that the chart is rubbish.
There might be a similar chart that you could draw if you did it properly. I'm sure there isn't though.
Economics broke a few years back. No-one really knows, but they've all happily kept quiet as no-one gets paid for not knowing.
Very best wishes for a speedy recovery.
FYI - Canada is bloody cold.
Farage had distanced himself from that, retained a strong brand, and leveraged it into something basically the same but without the baggage in the eyes of voters.
There was also a perceived policy difference. UKIP had tried to become a broad anti-Muslim, law'n'order, right wing force. Farage did manage to say "Look, here's Kate Hoey and a variety of people... you don't need to be on the hard right, this is simply about honouring the will of YOU in 2016."
My best wishes too.
*The chain has made it to Belfast. Has it arrived in London?
Boris Johnson +1,134.33
Jeremy Hunt +2,185.76
If the next Conservative leader is not the next Prime Minister it gets more interesting.
Anyone touting Rory's chances really, really didn't know Tory MPs. And I wonder if like me, they are expecting that if ever there was a time for Boris to pull his finger out and confound his legions of critics, now is that time. Boris just HAS to be smarter than simply getting the job, being crap and being booted out after months. I suspect he would just love to be given the long-term respect that Cameron had - and blew. Because of how much that woud hurt Cameron. Just doing a solid job as PM will confound almost everyone in the Chatterati.
And don't be amazed if he turns out to be really quite good. It is the biggest challenge of his life. He'll be remembered for little else. Step up to the plate, Mr Johnson - and knock it out the park. For all our sakes.
And all past history suggests further that Johnson adopts political positions like the newspaper opinion columnist he is, without much in the way of long term thought, research and analysis, just whatever seems to read well on paper. And to an artificial deadline.
Thinking of you.
The only question in this race is whether Hunt can get ahead of Davis' 32% in 2005, in the last ConHome Tory members poll he was on 26% v Boris on 72%
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/next-tory-leader-run-offs-johnson-tops-them-javid-improves-his-position-and-stewart-is-bottom.html
How interesting does it get?
https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1141752656861339648
I must admit, even as a bit of a fan of his, that was a good speech, and covered some interesting points.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4649007.stm
That's the only way I can see that the winner of the Hunt/Johnson contest wouldn't immediately be asked to form a Government, and accept becoming PM.
Of course, they'd also need to lose the ensuing General Election, otherwise they'd still be next PM.
It's all highly unlikely. I can see Johnson in particular losing a confidence vote quite quickly if he tacks to one extreme. But the numbers aren't there to do it before he's in post - as the recent Labour vote on taking control of the agenda showed, even the Tory left are willing to give the new PM some chance to see how it goes.
They're all offering Hunt at about 8/1 where he can be backed at 12/1 on BE.
I'm not doing it.
Losing his former campaign manager was an insurmountable blow for Gove.
https://twitter.com/natemcdermott/status/1141787821545611267?s=21
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/new-pm-will-not-be-given-brexit-extension-warns-leo-varadkar-wjh3gx33p?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3Tmaa5ksWd9BUxouyZrRcwD3oO6t91CT9536uaYQC5LN_-V7psaApUKZ0#Echobox=1561047237
But, still enjoyable.
I wouldn't spend the extra 8,443.51 just yet
But I'll happily buy you a drink if Ken becomes PM!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/evangelist-paula-white-cain-starts-to-rally-the-christian-faithful-to-support-trump-xv6xp5hbh?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0EXgJ94mZ8WU5COdswB-EoqC-7Mad2X3joqY1YaQ8UYrBnqup1uDul45Q#Echobox=1561025781
I struggle to see how that approach can be a good path for the country but maybe we will get lucky.