Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON lea

24567

Comments

  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    JackW said:

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    A government with no majority requires the goodwill of the big hitters not demoting rivals. Keep Gove at Environment or some other big department.
    Presumably May and Hammond will be on the back benches for now ?

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    isam said:

    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.
    Surely your Betfair account is easy enough to read?

    I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
    I’m more amused by people who post with certainty that something will definitely happen (eg Duncan-Smith losing his seat at the next election) but without any hint that they’ve bet their mortgage on that absolute certainty.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719
    Interesting to see that Boris got a majority of MPs in both the 4th and 5th ballots.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,740
    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773.
    Wasn't the Duke of Wellington also born in Ireland? I seem to remember a quip about being born in a stable not making a man a horse.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    matt said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.
    Surely your Betfair account is easy enough to read?

    I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
    I’m more amused by people who post with certainty that something will definitely happen (eg Duncan-Smith losing his seat at the next election) but without any hint that they’ve bet their mortgage on that absolute certainty.
    I just dont get how asking how much someone has bet on something and at what price, when they have tipped it, is provocation for snidey remarks. Anyone I know in the industry would automatically ask the question.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    It is always nice when a 100/1 tip makes it into a two horse race.

    Ahem.

    You don't seriously think Hunt will win, do you?

    I'm not speaking for TSE but this betting business is about odds. He may not 'seriously think' Hunt will win, but he sure as heck is sitting pretty on a 100/1 bet. I'd take 2/1 right now.

    (Actually I took 11/1 a couple of weeks ago)
    I'll give you 2/1 right now if you want it.
    Why would I take 2/1 when I'm on at 11/1 and very happy about that? If I didn't have a bet on I would be tempted by something much shorter. Why? Because we're dealing here with Boris Johnson. He's his own worst enemy and he's about to come under much more intense scrutiny.
    Why? Because you said you'd take it. Nevermind, didn't think you would.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773.
    Wasn't the Duke of Wellington also born in Ireland? I seem to remember a quip about being born in a stable not making a man a horse.
    Neigh-sayer!
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kinabalu said:

    Birds sing out of tune. Rain clouds hide the moon.

    I don't care what they say I can't get interested in a run-off without Gove.

    That's how I feel about it. Scandalous electoral fraud.

    Life is rock 'n' roll without a drummer.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,961
    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    What are the blue columns?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773. Bonar Law was himself a Canadian.
    Thanks for the responses everyone. Surprised it hasn't happened more. Contrasts with the Royal family
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    If only choo-choo had stood!
    If I had not had that ludicrous bet, and backed Lidington in the right market, things wouldnt look so sad
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    matt said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.
    Surely your Betfair account is easy enough to read?

    I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
    I’m more amused by people who post with certainty that something will definitely happen (eg Duncan-Smith losing his seat at the next election) but without any hint that they’ve bet their mortgage on that absolute certainty.
    I did a thread on his constituency and a few others.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/a-few-general-election-constituency-betting-markets-for-your-perusal/
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    H

    matt said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.
    Surely your Betfair account is easy enough to read?

    I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
    I’m more amused by people who post with certainty that something will definitely happen (eg Duncan-Smith losing his seat at the next election) but without any hint that they’ve bet their mortgage on that absolute certainty.
    I did a thread on his constituency and a few others.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/a-few-general-election-constituency-betting-markets-for-your-perusal/
    That wasn’t aimed at you.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    viewcode said:

    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    What are the blue columns?
    Backs

    Effectively I am on at these levels

    Boris -294 @0.735
    Hunt +5 @92.60
    Stewart -35 @10.29
    Raab +1 @2546.51
    Leadsom -5 @8.41
    Morgan +7 @107.06
    Patel -0.98 @-369.79
    Mordaunt +39 @45.83
    Portillo +37 @1000.00
    McVey +11 @91.82
    Cleverly +8 @143.94
    Lidington +100 @8.38
    Davidson -5 @16.50
    Gove +10 @74.00

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773.
    Wasn't the Duke of Wellington also born in Ireland? I seem to remember a quip about being born in a stable not making a man a horse.
    Yes - also a Dubliner. His father was Earl of Mornington and a member of the Irish Parliament.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.

    I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    I have no idea whether you've made money or lost it! Just as well I don't bet.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    If only choo-choo had stood!
    Sadly, I'm not a member of the Tory Party :lol:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,523
    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    I have been backing and laying in this market over 149 bets, including a cashout twice, so it is not very readable. The short version is that I am up a tenner if Boris wins a grand if Hunt does. I expect that at some point Boris will have a wobble at some point, so I may back him if the odds look good.

    I didn't lay the favourite somuch as back some of the field.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    Artist said:

    67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.

    I wouldn't take it for granted.

    Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    I have no idea whether you've made money or lost it! Just as well I don't bet.
    Lose 103 on Boris and win 573 Hunt. So on Hunt at bad levels
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Other people seem scared to reveal their bets on this race. Here are mine. Not the best, but transparency is nice, especially when you are tipping stuff to others.









    If only choo-choo had stood!
    Sadly, I'm not a member of the Tory Party :lol:
    Do you need training? :smile:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    matt said:

    H

    matt said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.
    Surely your Betfair account is easy enough to read?

    I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
    I’m more amused by people who post with certainty that something will definitely happen (eg Duncan-Smith losing his seat at the next election) but without any hint that they’ve bet their mortgage on that absolute certainty.
    I did a thread on his constituency and a few others.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/12/30/a-few-general-election-constituency-betting-markets-for-your-perusal/
    That wasn’t aimed at you.
    I know, just wanted to give a reminder of my thoughts.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Hunt = Bryan Gould

    Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
    Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,386

    Artist said:

    67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.

    I wouldn't take it for granted.

    Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
    52:48 might be 'interesting'!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.

    I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.

    Likewise. Thankfully laying JRM very heavily, and Leadsom then Rory significantly, has got my losses on Boris down to the point where I won’t mind. If I am lucky and he wobbles during the campaign, I may be able to get back to evens. Green on Hunt, so here’s hoping.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    edited June 2019

    Artist said:

    67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.

    I wouldn't take it for granted.

    Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
    Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't seem that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
    What do you think he'd do with HS2?

    I think Boris will scrap HS2.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    matt said:

    isam said:

    isam said:


    isam said:

    Seems incredible that Hunt was 100/1 at one point. Indeed, I got in at 110/1

    You can thank Jacob Rees-Mogg for that, he managed to skew the betting markets.
    How much did you lay of Boris?
    Nearly as much as I did with JRM and Jeremy Corbyn in the next PM market.
    You dont have to spin everything! How much did you lay of Boris and at what price?
    I don't know, I'd rather not give an inaccurate answer because we know that would get you overexcited.
    Surely your Betfair account is easy enough to read?

    I'm not being nasty, or trying to upset you. Just interested to know how much people who tip stuff on here have on
    I’m more amused by people who post with certainty that something will definitely happen (eg Duncan-Smith losing his seat at the next election) but without any hint that they’ve bet their mortgage on that absolute certainty.
    A certain fan of polls would have filed for bankruptcy long since, if that were the yardstick.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231

    Now we have a clear opponent my guess is that Hunt's number will get closer in the next YouGov members' poll. I've just laid Johnson at 1.9

    Yep. That's my thinking too.
    At 1.9?
    That was a typo.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    Hunt's task is to avoid humiliation. Nothing more.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
    What do you think he'd do with HS2?

    I think Boris will scrap HS2.
    Well, he scrapped the Thames Gateway Bridge in east London, arguably more useful than the Garden Bridge.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Gateway_Bridge
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2019
    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    I agree, the free publicity for the Tories on national tv for what is an internal contest doesn't seem fair. The BBC debate was so amateurish that it might have be negative for them though. I went off all five candidates on the back of it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    kle4 said:

    Artist said:

    67/33 to Johnson according to the YouGov members poll from a month ago. I can't see many/any switchers.

    I wouldn't take it for granted.

    Boris might only win 56-44 in extremis.
    Even the people enthusiastic about Hunt don't see, that enthusiastic about him. How does he challenge Boris's tight grip on the members? Careful caution?
    I think Boris needs to have a moment (get caught admitting he will never exit with No Deal) or gets accused by a former close ally of being really a Remainer who doesn't believe in Leave and only backed it to help with his leadership ambitions.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2019
    So Ken Clarke or a cock and balls take an early lead in the membership vote.

    That's me done.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    PaulM said:

    JackW said:

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    A government with no majority requires the goodwill of the big hitters not demoting rivals. Keep Gove at Environment or some other big department.
    Presumably May and Hammond will be on the back benches for now ?

    Yes and a number of other cabinet members. Prime Minister Hunt ( For @TSE .. :smile: ) will have great scope in making cabinet and other tiers of the greasy pole.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    On the betting it's Andrea Leadsom who's dug me out of the hole and the fact I got on Hunt with Skybet last year at 100/1 and 66/1.

    I was nursing a fat red on Boris until very recently.

    Well done to everyone who has gotten out of the red with Boris recently, can't be easy I imagine when he's favourite. The 'golden rule' of laying the favourite looks a bit doomed this time.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458

    So Ken Clarke or a cock and balls take an early lead in the membership vote.

    That's me done.

    Vote Jeremy Hunt!

    Mark Reckless wants you to abstain/spoil your ballot paper.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,386
    isam said:

    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    I agree, the free publicity for the Tories on national tv for what is an internal contest doesn't seem fair. The BBC debate was so amateurish that it might have be negative for them though. I went off all five candidates on the back of it
    Well, they are the Brexit Broadcasting Commission. And I never thought I'd feel that the BBC were biased. Even as a Liberal activist I thought they were reasonably fair but they've gone over the top in this!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Hunt = Bryan Gould

    Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
    Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
    He went back to NZ and made a difference didn’t he? Ended political career, yes but arguably did more good.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    There's no election on and we're not under purdah. The media isn't obligated to give equal coverage right now nor should they.

    Though as it happens polls are just one measurement. The publicity of a party with zero MPs has been quite massively overblown if you want to look at it that way. Everyone can spin it in a way to suit their own agenda.

    Who is going to be our next PM is massively in the public interest whether you're a Tory or not and this notion its an internal Tory debate is patently absurd when the Tories have over 300MPs and Downing Street.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989

    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    There's no election on and we're not under purdah. The media isn't obligated to give equal coverage right now nor should they.

    Though as it happens polls are just one measurement. The publicity of a party with zero MPs has been quite massively overblown if you want to look at it that way. Everyone can spin it in a way to suit their own agenda.

    Who is going to be our next PM is massively in the public interest whether you're a Tory or not and this notion its an internal Tory debate is patently absurd when the Tories have over 300MPs and Downing Street.
    I'd actually agree with that. This is not free publicity for the Tories, it's not even as though it shows them in a particularly good light, it's just a natural consequence of a more media saturated society facing up to the nature of our political system being that a party changing its leader can, in these circumstances, also mean who will be PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    edited June 2019

    isam said:

    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    I agree, the free publicity for the Tories on national tv for what is an internal contest doesn't seem fair. The BBC debate was so amateurish that it might have be negative for them though. I went off all five candidates on the back of it
    Well, they are the Brexit Broadcasting Commission.
    Lord Adonis, it is a pleasure to meet you!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    matt said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Hunt = Bryan Gould

    Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
    Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
    He went back to NZ and made a difference didn’t he? Ended political career, yes but arguably did more good.
    The point is that Hunt needs to tread carefully. A heavy defeat could be crtically damaging.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    What is this with the grey T-shirts and black shorts? Is there something about Tory leadership hopefuls that makes them go running every time they see a camera?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,321

    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    There's no election on and we're not under purdah. The media isn't obligated to give equal coverage right now nor should they.

    Though as it happens polls are just one measurement. The publicity of a party with zero MPs has been quite massively overblown if you want to look at it that way. Everyone can spin it in a way to suit their own agenda.

    Who is going to be our next PM is massively in the public interest whether you're a Tory or not and this notion its an internal Tory debate is patently absurd when the Tories have over 300MPs and Downing Street.
    Obliged.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    So Ken Clarke or a cock and balls take an early lead in the membership vote.

    That's me done.

    Vote Jeremy Hunt!

    Mark Reckless wants you to abstain/spoil your ballot paper.
    Is there a market yet on how many times BBC presenters will make their frequent 'unfortunate' mistake on his surname over the campaign?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    There's no election on and we're not under purdah. The media isn't obligated to give equal coverage right now nor should they.

    Though as it happens polls are just one measurement. The publicity of a party with zero MPs has been quite massively overblown if you want to look at it that way. Everyone can spin it in a way to suit their own agenda.

    Who is going to be our next PM is massively in the public interest whether you're a Tory or not and this notion its an internal Tory debate is patently absurd when the Tories have over 300MPs and Downing Street.
    I don’t think many people give a shit which Tory occupies Downing Street unless you are a Tory. There are a few respectable sane one on here and out there but the rest are working hard to remove none believers who are well respected constituency MPs. Does it matter wether the turd has ketchup or brown sauce on, I doubt it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,321
    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    This is basically me. I have no expectations of the man, but God help me it's starting to feel like it might be ok. Bloody Boris.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Yep, very, very impressive.

    For the first time since 8th June 2017 it feels like someone is actually in control of events (even if they're not yet Prime Minister)
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    If Boris really wants to gamble smart, he could treat this last stage of the leadership election as the opening of an autumn General Election campaign ... loads of free media, Corbyn out of sight, and a chunk of extra time to 'fatten the pig' of whatever populist policies he might wish to embed in the public consciousness before election day.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
    What do you think he'd do with HS2?

    I think Boris will scrap HS2.
    Well, he scrapped the Thames Gateway Bridge in east London, arguably more useful than the Garden Bridge.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thames_Gateway_Bridge
    I think your comment smacks of unfairness - if you're posh, but down-to-earth, its only natural that your allotment should have views of Chelsea.

    We had this sort of thing in the HoC too - Blackford and his mob. The next thing you know they'll suggest that the Scots should be given the vote.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I agree 100%

    I look forward to coming back home to the Tories with excitement. I didn't feel comfortable with May, realistically I'll be happy with either Hunt or Boris but Boris is far more exciting.

    If he can create optimism within the general membership, I don't think this will be at all close.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    edited June 2019
    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?

    Edit: Seems more likely people are just indulting in optimism based on nothing more than some good marshalling of MP votes, when those MPs are far less flexible in other matters. Believe me, I hope he does better than I think, but I dont see what the campaign tells us about that.

    You might as well have claimed that May managing to spank all the other candidates in 2016 showed what a good sign that was for her premiership...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Yep, very, very impressive.

    For the first time since 8th June 2017 it feels like someone is actually in control of events (even if they're not yet Prime Minister)
    Gavin Williamson is not yet PM?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    So Ken Clarke or a cock and balls take an early lead in the membership vote.

    That's me done.

    Vote Jeremy Hunt!

    Mark Reckless wants you to abstain/spoil your ballot paper.
    Is there a market yet on how many times BBC presenters will make their frequent 'unfortunate' mistake on his surname over the campaign?

    I believe they have been threatened with the sack if they did, although I think I read it on here.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Spartan If of the decade.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I hope Hunt doesn't pull out and this goes all the way to the members vote. It will give Boris the grilling he needs before any potential election (consider it a dry run) and if it is very one-sided in the result give him a major mandate that May always lacked.
  • On topic, what a laughable poll.

    However much someone may warm to Hague on a personal level, how can you make a case for him as a party leader? He made zero progress from an incredibly low base in 2001; So to put him above MacMillan and third greatest Tory leader since 1945... wow!

    And Major on minus 10 says a lot about the modern Conservative Party. Sure, 1997 was a disaster... but not wholly of his making, and 1992 was a shock win. He's also a clearly decent man. What sort of conceivable case can be made to say he was worse than Eden, whose legacy was one of a self-inflicted national humiliation?

    And May way below Cameron? May's failure IS Cameron's failure. The most that can be said is she failed to clean up the huge, stinking turd he left behind for her.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727
    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Yep, very, very impressive.

    For the first time since 8th June 2017 it feels like someone is actually in control of events (even if they're not yet Prime Minister)
    Gavin Williamson is not yet PM?
    If you hear he is from foreign sources it'll most likely be true.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    edited June 2019

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
    Nick Palmer once said he thought Gove was the sort of person who if you made him ambassador to Outer Mongolia he would rapidly come up with lots of ideas on how to further Anglo-Mongolian relations.

    I think this is an interesting hypothesis and it deserves testing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989

    I hope Hunt doesn't pull out and this goes all the way to the members vote. It will give Boris the grilling he needs before any potential election (consider it a dry run) and if it is very one-sided in the result give him a major mandate that May always lacked.

    Other than sparing humiliation I don't see why he would do so, although I suppose if he loses really badly he might not get a good job under Boris. But I would think he'll stick it out.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,033
    Jonathan said:

    Hunt's task is to avoid humiliation. Nothing more.

    He has already been humiliated - overtly picked as the patsy who Johnson wanted to run against.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    On topic, what a laughable poll.

    However much someone may warm to Hague on a personal level, how can you make a case for him as a party leader? He made zero progress from an incredibly low base in 2001; So to put him above MacMillan and third greatest Tory leader since 1945... wow!

    And Major on minus 10 says a lot about the modern Conservative Party. Sure, 1997 was a disaster... but not wholly of his making, and 1992 was a shock win. He's also a clearly decent man. What sort of conceivable case can be made to say he was worse than Eden, whose legacy was one of a self-inflicted national humiliation?

    And May way below Cameron? May's failure IS Cameron's failure. The most that can be said is she failed to clean up the huge, stinking turd he left behind for her.

    Major did well in the 1992 election but his handling of Black Wednesday was atrocious.

    May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North. If she didn't think she could implement a good Brexit she shouldn't have been so hubristic as to think she should be the PM to implement it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
    Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I agree 100%

    I look forward to coming back home to the Tories with excitement. I didn't feel comfortable with May, realistically I'll be happy with either Hunt or Boris but Boris is far more exciting.

    If he can create optimism within the general membership, I don't think this will be at all close.
    I can sleep at night now knowing the Tory’s are finished for a long time if you believe any of this ‘superb’ campaign management stuff is an indication of competence to come.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807
    I think what most people who object to Boris because he is lazy or not a 'details ' man forget is that the best bosses sometimes are those (for whatever reason) just allow others to get on with it . Micro managing is an over rated trait in politics , prime ministers and CEOs.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
    Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
    I think you are seeing what you hope will be true. What's the easiest path for Boris to take is the key question. It's the reason May delayed over and over, and it will inform what Boris does.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,719

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Spartan If of the decade.
    "We'll see!" comes the Laconic reply...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    nichomar said:

    To be honest this wall to wall free publicity for a party on 21% is a disgrace whilst the party on 19% is ignored. Yes the more we realize they really don’t know what they are doing it helps but really there is other news out there. It’s even giving corbyn a free ride on his none brexit confusion. We know they are only interested in their party and don’t give a f... about the country, leave them too it and tell us who is now likely to be shortest ever serving pm in history when it’s over.

    Party on 24% comes first.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989

    I think what most people who object to Boris because he is lazy or not a 'details ' man forget is that the best bosses sometimes are those (for whatever reason) just allow others to get on with it . Micro managing is an over rated trait in politics , prime ministers and CEOs.

    This can be true, but they do need to be competent, able to get a grip on things if needed and fulfill their own role well. We must hope Boris can do that.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    edited June 2019

    May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North.

    No she wasn't. One, because no PM who survived twelve years in office can be considered a 'worst' PM, and two, because there at least a dozen PMs that have been far worse than May. Goderich, Portland, Melbourne, Aberdeen, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden all spring to mind without breaking a sweat.

    What you really mean is, you don't like her and Lord North is the only other PM you've ever heard something bad about.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727
    ydoethur said:

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
    Nick Palmer once said he thought Gove was the sort of person who if you made him ambassador to Outer Mongolia he would rapidly come up with lots of ideas on how to further Anglo-Mongolian relations.

    I think this is an interesting hypothesis and it deserves testing.
    Gove will be fine. Assistant editor of the Standard is a well-paid job after all.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670


    As I said, only betting play money. At least I am green on both remaining candidates.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
    Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
    I think you are seeing what you hope will be true. What's the easiest path for Boris to take is the key question. It's the reason May delayed over and over, and it will inform what Boris does.
    Boris needs to be decisive, organised and make choices. Something May failed to do.

    When Britain had voted to "take back control" May said 'I'll do it' then when everyone said 'well, what are you doing?' she just ummed and ahhed. Until eventually everyone dug their own trenches around her while she continued to prevaricate.

    Boris can't delay. He needs to pick a path and go for it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,233
    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Yep, very, very impressive.

    For the first time since 8th June 2017 it feels like someone is actually in control of events (even if they're not yet Prime Minister)
    Gavin Williamson is not yet PM?
    A good leader builds a good team. And Boris's team has been bloody good in this campaign so far...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    Hey Robert, you understand economics, can you explain this chart to those of who don't.

    https://twitter.com/Jim_Edwards/status/1141713373652017153
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,807
    edited June 2019
    kle4 said:

    I think what most people who object to Boris because he is lazy or not a 'details ' man forget is that the best bosses sometimes are those (for whatever reason) just allow others to get on with it . Micro managing is an over rated trait in politics , prime ministers and CEOs.

    This can be true, but they do need to be competent, able to get a grip on things if needed and fulfill their own role well. We must hope Boris can do that.
    yes true - I think Boris is quite good at that - He is very able at using humour and enthusiasm to wriggle out of cock ups . In a way Ken Clarke and Boris are much the same
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    Alistair said:



    As I said, only betting play money. At least I am green on both remaining candidates.

    A profit is a profit.

    A good couple of pints out of that you otherwise wouldn't enjoy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stephen Crabb represents "The field". I had cashed out of the market at one point which is why I am green on obvious non entities like him and Nigel Farage.

    Oh, I also stuck 2 quid on Malthouse.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
    Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
    I think you are seeing what you hope will be true. What's the easiest path for Boris to take is the key question. It's the reason May delayed over and over, and it will inform what Boris does.
    Sure. It’s called optimism. It’s been a while so far as politics is concerned but I remember it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773.
    Wasn't the Duke of Wellington also born in Ireland? I seem to remember a quip about being born in a stable not making a man a horse.
    Yes - also a Dubliner. His father was Earl of Mornington and a member of the Irish Parliament.
    How come Mornington has ended up being the courtesy title Douro’s oldest kid then rather than going down the senior line of the family?
  • On topic, what a laughable poll.

    However much someone may warm to Hague on a personal level, how can you make a case for him as a party leader? He made zero progress from an incredibly low base in 2001; So to put him above MacMillan and third greatest Tory leader since 1945... wow!

    And Major on minus 10 says a lot about the modern Conservative Party. Sure, 1997 was a disaster... but not wholly of his making, and 1992 was a shock win. He's also a clearly decent man. What sort of conceivable case can be made to say he was worse than Eden, whose legacy was one of a self-inflicted national humiliation?

    And May way below Cameron? May's failure IS Cameron's failure. The most that can be said is she failed to clean up the huge, stinking turd he left behind for her.

    Major did well in the 1992 election but his handling of Black Wednesday was atrocious.

    May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North. If she didn't think she could implement a good Brexit she shouldn't have been so hubristic as to think she should be the PM to implement it.
    His predecessor took us into the ERM, to be fair - reluctantly, but she did it. And they did ultimately take the only available option on Black Wednesday itself. So it was a fiasco, but shared blame with his predecessor and his Chancellor.

    May isn't below Eden for me. Both presided over national humiliation. But May merely played a poor hand badly - it was a Cameron created disaster. Eden's humiliation was his alone - totally unnecessary, and his responsibility almost entirely. History means these things fade a bit, but Suez was a massive deal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
    Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
    I think you are seeing what you hope will be true. What's the easiest path for Boris to take is the key question. It's the reason May delayed over and over, and it will inform what Boris does.
    Boris needs to be decisive, organised and make choices. Something May failed to do.

    When Britain had voted to "take back control" May said 'I'll do it' then when everyone said 'well, what are you doing?' she just ummed and ahhed. Until eventually everyone dug their own trenches around her while she continued to prevaricate.

    Boris can't delay. He needs to pick a path and go for it.
    He is aided in that in that he has a lot less time to play with, and May has already tried so many of the options to defer matters. Which is why I think the idea Boris will bypass the spatan ERGers is overly hopeful - it is not the easiest thing for him to do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    Re Jeremy Hunt, has there been a Prime Minister previously whose spouse was not from the UK ?

    Catherine Wellesley, Duchess of Wellington, was born in Ireland in 1773.
    Wasn't the Duke of Wellington also born in Ireland? I seem to remember a quip about being born in a stable not making a man a horse.
    Yes - also a Dubliner. His father was Earl of Mornington and a member of the Irish Parliament.
    How come Mornington has ended up being the courtesy title Douro’s oldest kid then rather than going down the senior line of the family?
    Because the senior line died out in 1863.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,989
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
    Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
    I think you are seeing what you hope will be true. What's the easiest path for Boris to take is the key question. It's the reason May delayed over and over, and it will inform what Boris does.
    Sure. It’s called optimism. It’s been a while so far as politics is concerned but I remember it.
    Optimism is fine, I'm merely questioning the basis for that optimism. Some are using the same dominance of the MP vote to be pessimistic about what he will do.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    ydoethur said:

    Now that Hunt has made the final two if Boris wins I'd expect him to keep Hunt at the Foreign Office or move him to the Treasury.

    As for Gove I'd expect Boris will make him Transport Secretary or move him to Northern Ireland.

    I'd be delighted if he became transport secretary.
    Nick Palmer once said he thought Gove was the sort of person who if you made him ambassador to Outer Mongolia he would rapidly come up with lots of ideas on how to further Anglo-Mongolian relations.

    I think this is an interesting hypothesis and it deserves testing.
    I think that's right.

    It's a really positive side of him that he considers no job beneath him.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    ydoethur said:

    May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North.

    No she wasn't. One, because no PM who survived twelve years in office can be considered a 'worst' PM, and two, because there at least a dozen PMs that have been far worse than May. Goderich, Portland, Melbourne, Aberdeen, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden all spring to mind without breaking a sweat.

    What you really mean is, you don't like her and Lord North is the only other PM you've ever heard something bad about.
    May wasn't in office as PM for 12 years.

    Furthermore yes I mean it, May is far worse than Eden. The ghost of Eden can rest easy now knowing that "worst since Eden" is no longer the benchmark.

    May has dithered, prevaricated, wasted time, achieved nothing while we are meant to be undergoing the most serious peacetime transformation in our constitution with a short window of opportunity. She failed to carry the Commons or her Party or the country with her, she has by a very long margin had record defeats.

    While away from Brexit she has let her authoritarian streak run wild wherever she can.

    There are no positives to her name that I can think of.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Spartan If of the decade.

    Thanks Alastair, appreciated.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    DavidL said:

    kle4 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I really don't get this. What parts of a Tory leadership contest among MPs is goign to make a difference to passing a Brexit deal or achieving a new one?
    Keeping the possibility of a no deal Brexit on the table in a vaguely credible way is key. Can he scare enough Labour MPs into supporting the deal he comes up with (which will, of course, be very similar to Mays deal) to get the deal to pass, whatever the loons in the ERG say. I am beginning to believe he can. But we shall see soon enough.
    Maybe May's real offence wasn't the deal but that she didn't stroke their egos enough?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,603
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    GIN1138 said:

    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    Yep, very, very impressive.

    For the first time since 8th June 2017 it feels like someone is actually in control of events (even if they're not yet Prime Minister)
    Gavin Williamson is not yet PM?
    A good leader builds a good team. And Boris's team has been bloody good in this campaign so far...
    The spin is starting. Boris the leader and his great team.

    Complete Bullshit.

    No different to Theresa May. Same team.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    DavidL said:

    I’m going to be honest here. I thought Gavin Williamson was a pretentious prick with minimal ability and a ridiculous ego. But bloody hell, Frank Underwood eat your heart out. This has been an awesome campaign. Just awesome.

    Hunt is about to be arse wiped. Boris has won without being beholden to anyone (except Gavin). It puts him in as powerful a position as the Tories, as a minority party, can give him. If he can deliver Brexit the sky is the limit. He was not my choice, not even my second choice, but I feel a slight sliver of optimism. After 3 years of smacking my head against the wall with Theresa it feels good.

    I wish I could share your optimism.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,252

    ydoethur said:

    May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North.

    No she wasn't. One, because no PM who survived twelve years in office can be considered a 'worst' PM, and two, because there at least a dozen PMs that have been far worse than May. Goderich, Portland, Melbourne, Aberdeen, Campbell-Bannerman, Eden all spring to mind without breaking a sweat.

    What you really mean is, you don't like her and Lord North is the only other PM you've ever heard something bad about.
    May wasn't in office as PM for 12 years.
    No, but Lord North was.

    The rest of your post was frankly guff. If you think some indecisiveness is worse than conspiring to launch an illegal war to expropriate sovereign territory from another state, your views are not worth responding to.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    On topic, what a laughable poll.

    However much someone may warm to Hague on a personal level, how can you make a case for him as a party leader? He made zero progress from an incredibly low base in 2001; So to put him above MacMillan and third greatest Tory leader since 1945... wow!

    And Major on minus 10 says a lot about the modern Conservative Party. Sure, 1997 was a disaster... but not wholly of his making, and 1992 was a shock win. He's also a clearly decent man. What sort of conceivable case can be made to say he was worse than Eden, whose legacy was one of a self-inflicted national humiliation?

    And May way below Cameron? May's failure IS Cameron's failure. The most that can be said is she failed to clean up the huge, stinking turd he left behind for her.

    Major did well in the 1992 election but his handling of Black Wednesday was atrocious.

    May should be below everyone. Worst leader since Lord North. If she didn't think she could implement a good Brexit she shouldn't have been so hubristic as to think she should be the PM to implement it.
    His predecessor took us into the ERM, to be fair - reluctantly, but she did it. And they did ultimately take the only available option on Black Wednesday itself. So it was a fiasco, but shared blame with his predecessor and his Chancellor.

    May isn't below Eden for me. Both presided over national humiliation. But May merely played a poor hand badly - it was a Cameron created disaster. Eden's humiliation was his alone - totally unnecessary, and his responsibility almost entirely. History means these things fade a bit, but Suez was a massive deal.
    May wasn't dealt a poor hand. The card had been played face up on the table, she saw them and said "I want that hand" and picked them up. You can't blame your cards, when they're cards you chose to have.

    If she didn't think a good Brexit was in her control, as Cameron didn't, then she should have done the honourable thing like Cameron did and step to one side. There were plenty of alternatives who thought Brexit was a good thing, actively campaigned for it and could have drawn a positive vision for the future.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,231
    Jonathan said:

    matt said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Hunt = Bryan Gould

    Bryan Gould would have been an interesting leader for Labour, and if had won would have prevented Blair getting the opportunity. I always liked his style and politics, but with his sane Euroscepticism (he resigned from John Smiths front bench over Maastricht) would have taken Labour in a very different direction. He would have won in 97, but not the same landslide.
    Bryan got just 9%. That effectively ended his career. Will Hunt top that?
    He went back to NZ and made a difference didn’t he? Ended political career, yes but arguably did more good.
    The point is that Hunt needs to tread carefully. A heavy defeat could be crtically damaging.
    Maybe Hunt will surprise and land some serious punches?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    In hospital with a suspected heart blockage. Not the best 24 hours. Moving me to Sheffield for an angiogram tomorrow or Monday to confirm what can be done.

    Surprised to see Hunt in 2nd.

    Easy win for Boris now.

    My main concern is still being around to collect my winnings on the market!
This discussion has been closed.