TOPPING said:

IDS talking absolute bollocks on PM.

He wants to negotiate a FTA while in some kind of implementation period on WTO terms.

So why on earth didn't he support the WA which would have allowed us to do that but without the WTO bit (using the discredited Article 24).

His stupidity defies belief. Worse, he thinks we are as stupid as he is.

Which is why of course we will get the WA.

Because the discredited WA contained the awful backstop and plenty of people oppose the backstop in principle. Surely you're not genuinely so stupid as to not understand that by now?

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

BannedInParis said:

Philip_Thompson said:

That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.

He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.

It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.

Corbyn can't say "I don't want an election because I want the UK to disastrously crash under the Tories first". He may think it but he can't say or do it.

But he can easily come up with a plausible reason for not having an election in the midst of the country hurtling towards our Brexit deadline.

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

However, this shows that they believe a General Election is in the offing. The only [ little ] chance of survival is in the LD. Chuka, Heidi and Wollastan have reasonable chances.

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

kjohnw said:

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Comparing Rory Stewart to Obama -really?

As I say I haven't heard or seen his pitch. But people on here were seriously enthusiastic. Especially non Tories, unfortunately for him.

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

Well its getting awfully lonely in CUK if Soubry wants out.

Coffey, Gapes and that other bloke from Nottingham

bigjohnowls said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

Well its getting awfully lonely in CUK if Soubry wants out.

Coffey, Gapes and that other bloke from Nottingham

Even last week Soubry was saying Chuka made a mistake !

oxfordsimon said:

surbiton19 said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

However, this shows that they believe a General Election is in the offing. The only [ little ] chance of survival is in the LD. Chuka, Heidi and Wollastan have reasonable chances.

But Chuka, Heidi and Sarah are no longer part of ChUK - they are back to being The Independent Group or The Alternative or whatever their title is this week

What I think the vote tonight shows is that there are more people in Parliament who have more than 64,000 reasons a year not to have an election than is generally appreciated. It means the odds are not tipped quite as sharply against the next PM as it would appear.

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

OblitusSumMe said:

kjohnw said:

IanB2 said:

How pitiful is it that the clear front-runner to be our next PM has to hide from the media and any scrutiny and has carefully to be shepherded to make sure he can avoid being asked any sort of difficult question?

He was getting questioned at his launch today was he not?

Six-question limit and his MP supporters booed one of the journalists.

And he failed to answer the questions.

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Hmmm, what I heard of Rory was boring twaddle from a privileged twerp who has no clue about the real world. Just your average overrated toffy Tory.

kjohnw said:

IanB2 said:

How pitiful is it that the clear front-runner to be our next PM has to hide from the media and any scrutiny and has carefully to be shepherded to make sure he can avoid being asked any sort of difficult question?

He was getting questioned at his launch today was he not?

He allowed 6 questions from selected journalists and to several of them he simply failed to give any answer whatsoever. This man is not fit to be PM

Looking at the Daily Mail on line you could be mistaken for thinking Boris Johnson was already PM! It does not matter how much the Brexit media try to sell us Boris - He will in my mind remain a complete arsehole who does not have the skills to be PM. He bumbles along trying to be amusing with his usual stock of worn phrases and clichés. The Brexit media will get their man and then when he is as bad as I believe he will be they will disown him whilst we all bare the consequences and cost of the clown.

MikeSmithson said:

kjohnw said:

IanB2 said:

How pitiful is it that the clear front-runner to be our next PM has to hide from the media and any scrutiny and has carefully to be shepherded to make sure he can avoid being asked any sort of difficult question?

He was getting questioned at his launch today was he not?

He allowed 6 questions from selected journalists and to several of them he simply failed to give any answer whatsoever. This man is not fit to be PM

and Uncle Vince is?

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

I'd take them all for now, on a no promises basis. The numbers would look good in parliament and ending CHUK would lead to fewer competitors on most ballot papers. But whether you want all of them standing next time.. not so sure.

Harris_Tweed said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

I'd take them all for now, on a no promises basis. The numbers would look good in parliament and ending CHUK would lead to fewer competitors on most ballot papers. But whether you want all of them standing next time.. not so sure.

I doubt Gapes would stand again! But I agree with you that strength in numbers is critical. The LD would be foolish not to accept a boost to their numbers. It is not like any of the MPs has been tarred with anything negative. They all withstand scrutiny IMO and I cannot see any downside apart from the usual snipping from wannabe candidates who feel threatened.

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

kjohnw said:

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Comparing Rory Stewart to Obama -really?

As I say I haven't heard or seen his pitch. But people on here were seriously enthusiastic. Especially non Tories, unfortunately for him.

Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

I'm a fan but reject him they will. Probably tomorrow.

DavidL said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To me that seems irrational. I agree with Gove on that. But its not hard to understand their total frustration. How much time does our government want to waste?

It is irrational. But that is the level of mania that is now routine among Leavers.

They never once stop to consider seriously why they have completely failed to build a consensus behind their mandate. One day they will, but that day remains a long way off.

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

My view is that all outcomes are disastrous from here. It’s just a choice of different disasters.

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

kjohnw said:

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Comparing Rory Stewart to Obama -really?

As I say I haven't heard or seen his pitch. But people on here were seriously enthusiastic. Especially non Tories, unfortunately for him.

Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

I'm a fan but reject him they will. Probably tomorrow.

Agree. But there might well be a longer game afoot.

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Yes

The_Taxman said:

Harris_Tweed said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

I'd take them all for now, on a no promises basis. The numbers would look good in parliament and ending CHUK would lead to fewer competitors on most ballot papers. But whether you want all of them standing next time.. not so sure.

I doubt Gapes would stand again! But I agree with you that strength in numbers is critical. The LD would be foolish not to accept a boost to their numbers. It is not like any of the MPs has been tarred with anything negative. They all withstand scrutiny IMO and I cannot see any downside apart from the usual snipping from wannabe candidates who feel threatened.

Austin Field and Woodcock also available if your bar is that low

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

kjohnw said:

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Comparing Rory Stewart to Obama -really?

As I say I haven't heard or seen his pitch. But people on here were seriously enthusiastic. Especially non Tories, unfortunately for him.

Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

I'm a fan but reject him they will. Probably tomorrow.

Agree. But there might well be a longer game afoot.

No there is not, it is a donkey derby and the biggest fattest donkey is already assured of victory. He will steamroll the 3 legged ones easily.

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

My view is that all outcomes are disastrous from here. It’s just a choice of different disasters.

Yes, very possibly. But at least we can enjoy the blissful summer.

Oh.

It is not yet St Swithins day

Lovely on the Isle of Wight at the weekend, if a bit blowy.

Harris_Tweed said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

I'd take them all for now, on a no promises basis. The numbers would look good in parliament and ending CHUK would lead to fewer competitors on most ballot papers. But whether you want all of them standing next time.. not so sure.

All will bring their names. Most will lose anyway. But Soubry could be a problem. She has her own mind and she is a Tory...…...real Tory.

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

kjohnw said:

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Comparing Rory Stewart to Obama -really?

As I say I haven't heard or seen his pitch. But people on here were seriously enthusiastic. Especially non Tories, unfortunately for him.

Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

I'm a fan but reject him they will. Probably tomorrow.

Indeed. Hadn't really watched him for any length of time before this launch and I didn't expect to like him based on the little I knew/had seen, but he's impressive. Shame.

surbiton19 said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

Chris Leslie could be. After all, he is more Blairite than even Blair. The point about Allen, Umunna and Wollaston is that they have identifiable seats where with LD organization and their own name they could just possibly win. Heidi Allen definitely could.

Leslie, Gapes, Berger represent extremely safe Labour seats. Streatham is a London "liberal" type seat.

LAB 68.5%
LD 6.5%

JosiasJessop said:

DavidL said:

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

kjohnw said:

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Comparing Rory Stewart to Obama -really?

As I say I haven't heard or seen his pitch. But people on here were seriously enthusiastic. Especially non Tories, unfortunately for him.

Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

I'm a fan but reject him they will. Probably tomorrow.

Agree. But there might well be a longer game afoot.

I don't think there's any long-term plan beyond advocating his position to the best of his abilities.

What other option does he have besides giving up?

The_Taxman said:

bigjohnowls said:

The_Taxman said:

Harris_Tweed said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

I'd take them all for now, on a no promises basis. The numbers would look good in parliament and ending CHUK would lead to fewer competitors on most ballot papers. But whether you want all of them standing next time.. not so sure.

I doubt Gapes would stand again! But I agree with you that strength in numbers is critical. The LD would be foolish not to accept a boost to their numbers. It is not like any of the MPs has been tarred with anything negative. They all withstand scrutiny IMO and I cannot see any downside apart from the usual snipping from wannabe candidates who feel threatened.

Austin Field and Woodcock also available if your bar is that low

Why not?! I am not a LD member, although I did vote for them in the locals and European elections. Politically, I am a swing voter but it makes sense to me for the LD to open themselves up to any centrist who wants to caucus with them.

No, not really.

Anyone wanting to sit as an LD MP has to be reliable on a number of issues beyond Brexit.

A lesser degree of support my be reasonable for some like Soubry, such as an electoral pact.

IanB2 said:

Foxy said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

My view is that all outcomes are disastrous from here. It’s just a choice of different disasters.

Yes, very possibly. But at least we can enjoy the blissful summer.

Oh.

It is not yet St Swithins day

Lovely on the Isle of Wight at the weekend, if a bit blowy.

The Island dodged the worst of the rain, at least.

I see that it has been a bit soggy in the East Midlands though. My new plantings are well watered in!

bigjohnowls said:

surbiton19 said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

Chris Leslie could be. After all, he is more Blairite than even Blair. The point about Allen, Umunna and Wollaston is that they have identifiable seats where with LD organization and their own name they could just possibly win. Heidi Allen definitely could.

Leslie, Gapes, Berger represent extremely safe Labour seats. Streatham is a London "liberal" type seat.

LAB 68.5%
LD 6.5%

True. But Chuka could get 34% - just saying. In any case, he would be the only ex-Labour with any chance.

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.

But you have called for No Deal on these very web-pages, as - in your eyes - it is the only way to teach Leavers a lesson, and for Brexit to be seen as the stupidity it is. Have you not?

Checks whether SeanT has recently moved house....

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.

Deaths will be few, I think. The impact on the NHS will be more on supplies rather than pharmaceuticals, as well as the worsening problems of staff retention. Mostly cancelled ops and longer waiting lists IMO. In the NHS we are usedto crisis management, we have one most days!

The_Taxman said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

Benpointer said:

brendan16 said:

Chris said:

In the event that No Deal happens, and goes badly wrong, how many deaths definitely attributable to disruption of medical supplies could the prime minister survive?

You should watch the current BBC series Years and Years with Emma Thompson playing a future Populist PM who seems to be based on Katie Hopkins. It’s a future post Brexit world where the EU seems to have collapsed and the poor and homeless have been ‘disappeared’ to ‘secure locations’.

You would positively hyperventilate!

It's a great series - scary though!

Such a society sounds a bit too good to be true.

It’s a hard call on who’s more repellent: Emma Thompson or Katie Hopkins.

Katie Hopkins does not keep promises, she said she would run naked with a sausage up her arse if something happened politically! The event went against her and she failed to go running naked. I feel cheated! I was not really interested in whether she was harbouring a sausage but I was intrigued to her naked form!

Her naked form (or referencing V - her real naked form)...

Foxy said:

The_Taxman said:

bigjohnowls said:

The_Taxman said:

Harris_Tweed said:

bigjohnowls said:

MrsB said:

IanB2 said:

bigjohnowls said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1138851722988851200

LDs would be well advised to tell them where to go. Soubry has no place in the the Liberal Democrat Party - the tensions between her political compass and the LDs would just be too great.

Mike Gapes would be my final pick if i were LDs

No way he would join and no way we would want him.

You would put Chris Leslie ahead of Mike Gapes????

Neither offer anything to LDs IMO

You could argue a case for Allen and Chukka at a push Berger and Wollaston but the rest apply the barge pole

I'd take them all for now, on a no promises basis. The numbers would look good in parliament and ending CHUK would lead to fewer competitors on most ballot papers. But whether you want all of them standing next time.. not so sure.

I doubt Gapes would stand again! But I agree with you that strength in numbers is critical. The LD would be foolish not to accept a boost to their numbers. It is not like any of the MPs has been tarred with anything negative. They all withstand scrutiny IMO and I cannot see any downside apart from the usual snipping from wannabe candidates who feel threatened.

Austin Field and Woodcock also available if your bar is that low

Why not?! I am not a LD member, although I did vote for them in the locals and European elections. Politically, I am a swing voter but it makes sense to me for the LD to open themselves up to any centrist who wants to caucus with them.

No, not really.

Anyone wanting to sit as an LD MP has to be reliable on a number of issues beyond Brexit.

A lesser degree of support my be reasonable for some like Soubry, such as an electoral pact.

The LD can accommodate many different views and claim it is driven by localism! For instance the MP for Eastbourne is in favour of a Brexit deal compared to the rest of the party which is anti-Brexit. As long as an MP is not embarrassing, I cannot see they would turn anyone away as strategically it will boost their standing.

AlastairMeeks said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

My view is that all outcomes are disastrous from here. It’s just a choice of different disasters.

All outcomes are bad (for everone) from here onwards and disastrous for some people.

The question is either which is the least bad for most people and least bad for me. Personally I've shifted my income to $ so it won't really matter...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.

A dangerous attitude.

If Corbynism results in the implosion of the economy, unemployment skyrockets, homes are repossessed and people commit suicide - would you want to "get a baseball bat and smash in the head" of the nearest Labour voter?

If you got one free hit (with a baseball bat) on everyone who's ever voted for a policy that resulted in accidental harm to someone else, how many people do you think would get their heads stoved in?

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.

But you have called for No Deal on these very web-pages, as - in your eyes - it is the only way to teach Leavers a lesson, and for Brexit to be seen as the stupidity it is. Have you not?

No Deal later on when we're prepared for No Deal would do the trick.

We will not be ready on the 31st of October.

OK, I am mystified now. You want No Deal to teach the Leavers a lesson, but you want a delayed and managed No Deal, so it will... teach them a less severe and less impressive lesson. Or something?

It is the end of another trying day of summer rain, we are all tired. I get that.

See Foxy's post at 6:51.

eek said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.

Deaths will be few, I think. The impact on the NHS will be more on supplies rather than pharmaceuticals, as well as the worsening problems of staff retention. Mostly cancelled ops and longer waiting lists IMO. In the NHS we are usedto crisis management, we have one most days!

So in your opinion we won't have any real initial problems but longer term we are going to have issues - No Deal may just bring those issues forward a bit...

No, supplies will be an issue very quickly, with multiple operations cancelled, and equipment out of service. There is more to the NHS than handing out pills.

In the longer term, yes staffing will be the big problem.

MikeSmithson said:

DavidL said:

kjohnw said:

DavidL said:

Work has been getting in the way of politics for the last couple of days but my reading on here suggests so far as launches are concerned:

Rory: wow, super wow, Obama moments.
Boris: meh, no mistakes but meh.
Sajid: wow, really inspirational.

I think that we are seeing the mechanics here that make it so difficult for the front runner to win. The need to be careful, not to expose any (additional) flank or say anything controversial inhibits the front runner whilst those behind are dis-inhibited and more interesting.

Its particularly unfortunate in Boris' case because his strengths are his charisma, his humour and his ability to engage with his audience. Take that away and he just looks bumbling. I think he is being poorly advised and needs to be let off the leash a bit. But what do I know?

Comparing Rory Stewart to Obama -really?

As I say I haven't heard or seen his pitch. But people on here were seriously enthusiastic. Especially non Tories, unfortunately for him.

Rory is the only grown up in this race and the Tories will reject him at their peril

Completely sympathise with this, but from a Tory perspective among the unicorn providers on offer he offers the TM one already tried and failed. So why should he possibly be a candidate now with a chance? furthermore such evidence as there is suggests he will find it difficult to win an election. A Tory member may feel that it is perilous to reject him, but that it is even more perilous to accept him. The member could end up with No Brexit, No Tory Government and No Tory Party. Hope he gets it next time. If there is a next time.

Ploppikins said:

surbiton19 said:

Ploppikins said:

MikeSmithson said:

kjohnw said:

IanB2 said:

How pitiful is it that the clear front-runner to be our next PM has to hide from the media and any scrutiny and has carefully to be shepherded to make sure he can avoid being asked any sort of difficult question?

He was getting questioned at his launch today was he not?

He allowed 6 questions from selected journalists and to several of them he simply failed to give any answer whatsoever. This man is not fit to be PM

and Uncle Vince is?

Uncle Vince was never a potential PM.

He would be in the running if there was an election tomorrow. Given the government is the most unstable for 40 years, it's not a ludicrous as it sounds.

Don't be silly , he could not run a bath and Lib Dems would be also rans.

Byronic said:

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Byronic said:

AlastairMeeks said:

DavidL said:

This is another irritating and frustrating example of how inept May and Hammond's administration has been to prepare for the possibility of a no deal Brexit: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48611754

Less that 10% of firms that need transitional arrangements have actually applied. May's refusal to see any way forward but her own deal negotiated whilst various Brexit Secretaries were not even in the room comes seriously close to criminal negligence and Hammond's refusal to address the possibility of no deal was a dereliction of duty. Its really unforgivable.

But it makes the position of those who want to leave with no deal on 31st October come hell or high water little short of ridiculous. Yes Boris, that would be you (amongst others).

Your fellow Leavers downthread believe that Britain should leave the EU with no deal on 31 October whether Britain is ready or not, as a salutary lesson if the public were to suffer.

To be fair there are some PB Remainers - e.g. TSE, and perhaps yourself - who feel exactly the same?

Both seem equally bonkers to me.

I want to avoid a No Deal Brexit, quite simply a No Deal Brexit on the 31st of October would result in the deaths of people and that's something that has to be avoided at all costs.

Just imagine if you had a loved one who died because of No Deal, you'd want to grab a baseball bat and smash the heads in of the nearest leavers, that's not good for the country.

Deaths will be few, I think. The impact on the NHS will be more on supplies rather than pharmaceuticals, as well as the worsening problems of staff retention. Mostly cancelled ops and longer waiting lists IMO. In the NHS we are usedto crisis management, we have one most days!

I think the idea there will be deaths is nuts. Mini deals will be done to prevent this (the EU will need them as much as us). The borders will probably be completely opened, for a while (irony alert) to facilitate trade, until a new temporary trading arrangement can be put in place.

So No Deal won't be lethal. But it will be chaotic, expensive, tedious and unpleasant. Best avoided.

The problem with "No Deal" is that actually it requires multiple "mini deals". It could just about work in a prepared manner, with good will. It is far less likely in a hostile environment that is likely to occur with Boris's ramped up jingoistic claptrap.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Conservatives who voted YES

Bebb
Clarke
Djanogly
Greening
Grieve
Gyimah
Lee
Letwin
Sandbach
Spelman

Labour who voted No

Barrow
Campbell
Fitzpatrick
Flint
obviously Hepburn
Hoey
Mann
Stringer


Austin and Lewis for No


No vote recorded

Baron, Bradley, Collins, Harrington, Knight, Mercer, Offord, Perry, Bob Stewart, Vazey, Watling

Field, Hopking, O'Marah, Angela Smith

Efford, Elliott, Farrely, Gaffney, Hussain, Keeley, Lucas, Marsden, Onn, Smeeth, Snell, Stevens, Derek Twigg

Stephen Hepburn loves voting No to everything.

Dead Thread

Philip_Thompson said:

OllyT said:

Philip_Thompson said:

BannedInParis said:

Philip_Thompson said:

That is overthinking it. Is Corbyn going to say he would rather have a Tory Brexit than an election?

He's spent the last two years working pretty hard towards it.

He's spent 2 years saying "I want another election, I want another election". If the PM calls for an election the idea he could say "actually no thanks" is ludicrous.

It is not ludicrous. The Tories are heading for a car crash either way in October why would the opposition want to let them off the hook. Corbyn maybe desperate to get into the driving seat but he doesn't want to be sitting there on October 31st.

Corbyn can't say "I don't want an election because I want the UK to disastrously crash under the Tories first". He may think it but he can't say or do it.

He can't close Parliament if No Deal is the default option. And were the election to be in October - it would take a miracle to escape No Deal or Revoke - which is why if we have an election it will be on September 12th and I will once again vote for the losing candidate so will vote tory locally...

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