politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two
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Complacency from Thornberry0
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1
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Emily Thornberry - yet another person who hasn't read the deal and is pontificating endlessly while being completely wrong.
It's her Colonelcy all over again.0 -
> @Pulpstar said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132768987580964866
Total rubbish. Baxter is king.0 -
What on earth were those pollsters who were putting the LDs behind Labour thinking of?1
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All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.0
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Last week, me:TheScreamingEagles said:
I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.TheWhiteRabbit said:It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
"Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."0 -
ALDE on the rise across Europe
Beating LIDL quite comfortably1 -
> @Byronic said:
> > @RobinWiggs said:
> > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
> >
> > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
> >
> > Me three.<
>
> +++++++
>
> Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
After this result, of course Boris will win.0 -
What was BritainElects forecast?0
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LD, green and CUK have more or less a million between themanother_richard said:> @Black_Rook said:
> London:
>
> Animal Welfare Party: 25,232
> Change UK: 117,635
> Conservatives: 177,964
> Greens: 278,957
> Labour: 536,810
> Lib Dems: 608,725
> Brexit Party: 400,257
> UKEUP: 18,806
> Ukip: 46,497
> Women's Equality Party: 23,766
>
> Seats:
>
> 3 LDs
> 2 Lab
> 2 Brexit
> 1 Green
>
> **ENDS**
Who predicted over a million LibDem votes in London ?0 -
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SNP are utterly smashing this.0
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> @TOPPING said:
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Last week, me:
>
> "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
I don't know if he'll win! Just a personal preference.
In my heart I would prefer Hunt but horses for courses, and this course needs someone who backed Leave0 -
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> @TOPPING said:
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Last week, me:
>
> "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
The message from this election is that sitting on the fence on Brexit is electoral suicide.0 -
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Current UK voteshares Brexit Party 31% LDs 21% Lab 15% Greens 12% Cons 9%0
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"Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
Has Britain saved Europe???0 -
> @IanB2 said:
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > London:
>
> >
>
> > Animal Welfare Party: 25,232
>
> > Change UK: 117,635
>
> > Conservatives: 177,964
>
> > Greens: 278,957
>
> > Labour: 536,810
>
> > Lib Dems: 608,725
>
> > Brexit Party: 400,257
>
> > UKEUP: 18,806
>
> > Ukip: 46,497
>
> > Women's Equality Party: 23,766
>
> >
>
> > Seats:
>
> >
>
> > 3 LDs
>
> > 2 Lab
>
> > 2 Brexit
>
> > 1 Green
>
> >
>
> > **ENDS**
>
>
>
> Who predicted over a million LibDem votes in London ?
>
> LD, green and CUK have more or less a million between them
But that wasn't the prediction was it.0 -
> @dixiedean said:
> All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs0 -
Squeaky bum time for me — BRX currently on 31% and I need 29.99%.0
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> @AndyJS said:
> What on earth were those pollsters who were putting the LDs behind Labour thinking of?
I think the online compaign and organisation of young, last-minute previously unregistered voters, might have swung it. Not confirned to vote till the last minute.0 -
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Latest prognosis European Parliament:
EPP 178 (-38)
S&D 152 (-35)
ALDE 108 (+39)
G/EFA 69 (+15)0 -
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0
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> @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
>
> This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
>
> Has Britain saved Europe???
We made the whole thing a lot more interesting, with Brexit.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> Current UK voteshares Brexit Party 31% LDs 21% Lab 15% Greens 12% Cons 9%
Just re-posting my projection from Friday while it still looks quite good:
BP 29%
LD 21%
Lab 18%
Green 12%
Con 8%
UKIP 4%
CUK 3%
NATs 5%
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Oh the irony.TheWhiteRabbit said:"Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
Has Britain saved Europe???
But always good to see people turning out to vote.0 -
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TheWhiteRabbit said:
ALDE on the rise across Europe
Beating LIDL quite comfortably
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Yes, and unfortunately 'doing a deal' is now seen as sitting on the fence.Wulfrun_Phil said:> @TOPPING said:
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Last week, me:
>
> "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
The message from this election is that sitting on the fence on Brexit is electoral suicide.0 -
> @dyedwoolie said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
There is zero point to CHUK - they don't stand for anything distinctive. There is no reason to vote for them. The new LD leader will be well advised just to smile, nod and move on to something that really matters.0 -
> @dyedwoolie said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
The splitters vote was NOTA - it wont transfer.0 -
> @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
>
> This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
>
> Has Britain saved Europe???
Er no... we've dragged turnout down to close to 50%0 -
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NEW THREAD0
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> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132771345056587781
I don’t usually touch the water of life, but...0 -
Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.MarqueeMark said:> @Byronic said:
> > @RobinWiggs said:
> > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
> >
> > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
> >
> > Me three.<
>
> +++++++
>
> Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
After this result, of course Boris will win.
There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
It’s over.
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Heidi Allen making herself look even more ridiculous. Quite an achievement.0
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> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132771345056587781
Could it force them to reinvent themselves as a non-unionist party?0 -
Not exactly, the clear message is that you don't want to be the the party currently or prospectively left with the problem.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The message from this election is that sitting on the fence on Brexit is electoral suicide.0 -
> @dyedwoolie said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
Heidi Allen on the BBC is hilarious. Got absolutely trounced and got no seats but apparently it is a really good result because they have some really good 'energy'.0 -
Indeed! AN is at St John's these days (as, of course, was the most famous Gloucestershire organist of all, Herbert Howells).ydoethur said:
Andrew Nethsingha's wife?El_Capitano said:
@ydoethur , I trust you recognise the Gloucestershire organist connection there?AndreaParma_82 said:Elected in East
Richard Tice Brexit
Michael Heaver Brexit
June Mummery Brexit
Barbara Gibson LD
Lucy Nethsingha LD
Catherine Rowett Green
Geoffrey Van Orden Con0 -
"Hello, Viewcode. I want to play a game."viewcode said:
If you sit on the fence long enough, the voters will come along, pull on each leg, and turn into a "Saw" remake....Nigelb said:
Damn! Ruins the thread I was writing!!!TheWhiteRabbit said:"Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
Has Britain saved Europe???0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132771345056587781
>
> Could it force them to reinvent themselves as a non-unionist party?
If they're going to do that then they might as well disband. Members can pick the SNP or the Greens and join them instead.0 -
The significant turnout jumps in university seats suggests younger voters are a lot of the story tonight.WhisperingOracle said:> @AndyJS said:
> What on earth were those pollsters who were putting the LDs behind Labour thinking of?
I think the online compaign and organisation of young, last-minute previously unregistered voters, might have swung it. Not confirned to vote till the last minute.
Meanwhile Heidi on the BBC talking about working with the LDs0 -
I thought the point might have been the Brexit issue, which has certainly sparked pro-EU sentiment in this country, may have to some degree encouraged more people to actually turnout and show their own backing for the institution this time around.Benpointer said:> @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
>
> This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
>
> Has Britain saved Europe???
Er no... we've dragged turnout down to close to 50%
Nothing would be so simple of course, but I didn't think the point was our turnout was higher than others, but that the awfulness of how Brexit has gone is making people want to vote more in other places, in advertently.
Although turnout doesn't really count if there is compulsory voting.0 -
40% vote share for Brexit/Conservative alliance. 15%...15% for Labour- that is just pathetic. Do you still want a GE Jeremy- you have killed the Labour Party!0
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I think the SE and SW regions could be just slightly disappointing for the Brexit Party compared to the Eastern region because the Greens and CUK could be a bit higher in those two regions. Also the SE is very slowly becoming more like London than it used to be.0
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11 MPs to boost their numbers though.oxfordsimon said:> @dyedwoolie said:
> > @dixiedean said:
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
There is zero point to CHUK - they don't stand for anything distinctive. There is no reason to vote for them. The new LD leader will be well advised just to smile, nod and move on to something that really matters.0 -
Labour fearing to be down to 1 seat in NW0
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Seems a bit harsh on S S Wesley.El_Capitano said:
Indeed! AN is at St John's these days (as, of course, was the most famous Gloucestershire organist of all, Herbert Howells).ydoethur said:
Andrew Nethsingha's wife?El_Capitano said:
@ydoethur , I trust you recognise the Gloucestershire organist connection there?AndreaParma_82 said:Elected in East
Richard Tice Brexit
Michael Heaver Brexit
June Mummery Brexit
Barbara Gibson LD
Lucy Nethsingha LD
Catherine Rowett Green
Geoffrey Van Orden Con0 -
Percentage wise they might only be 3 off for the Tories, but in seats, wow.AndyJS said:This was their forecast:
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> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1132771890777473032
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPropaganda/status/1132770382199623680
People forget Thornberry’s seat used to be a marginal - in 2005 she only beat the LDs by less than 500 votes.0 -
> @RobinWiggs said:
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > > @RobinWiggs said:
>
> > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> > >
>
> > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> > >
>
> > > Me three.<
>
> >
>
> > +++++++
>
> >
>
> > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
>
>
>
> After this result, of course Boris will win.
>
> Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.
>
> There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
>
> It’s over.
Yup ; as I mentioned a few months ago the hardcore Brexit vote never seems to top out at beyond what was the core tory vote - about 33 % at the most, and late 20s on a bad day. It's not enough.0 -
Did he?TheScreamingEagles said:To think the grief Mike got for tipping the Lib Dems to beat the Brexit Party in London.
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Hang on — Betfair uses UK shares not GB ones, which means we can probably take about 1% off the shares we're seeing at the moment.0
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Curtice just said the same on the Beeb. He’s obviously reading PBC tonight.WhisperingOracle said:> @RobinWiggs said:
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > > @RobinWiggs said:
>
> > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> > >
>
> > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> > >
>
> > > Me three.<
>
> >
>
> > +++++++
>
> >
>
> > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
>
>
>
> After this result, of course Boris will win.
>
> Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.
>
> There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
>
> It’s over.
Yup, as I mentioned a few months ago the hardcore Brexit vote never seems to top out at beyond what was the core tory vote - about 33 % at the most, and late 20s on a bad day. It's not enough.0 -
Yep. Sucks to be them I guess, but you cannot straddle this line forever - they've tried, and it looked like it was working for a long time, but it didn't in the end.Scott_P said:
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Looks like an embarrassment for Survation. Their latest poll was:
Brexit 31%
Lab 23%
Con 14%
LD 12%
Green 7%
ChangeUK 4%
UKIP 3%0 -
> @RobinWiggs said:
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > > @RobinWiggs said:
>
> > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> > >
>
> > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> > >
>
> > > Me three.<
>
> >
>
> > +++++++
>
> >
>
> > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
>
>
>
> After this result, of course Boris will win.
>
> Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.
>
> There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
>
> It’s over.
Indeed it is. I'd say the chance of Brexit actually happening is now below 20%.0 -
Alastair Campbell finally comes out as a LD voter0
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Swing from Tories to Remain parties, although I assume that's differential turnout rather than voters changing their minds.0
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Wake up Labour .
You heard it from the polling expert.
Labour are under more danger from the Lib Dems than the Brexit Party .
Caroline Flint and the rest of the Labour MPs in denial need to wake up !0 -
LD+PC+Grn+CUK well clear of BXP+UKIP in Wales despite all the BXP MEPs0
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Greens beat Cons in W Mids.0
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Elected in Wales
Nathan Gills (Brexit)
James Wells (Brexit)
Jill Evans (Plaid)
Jacqueline Jones (Labour)0 -
Tories scrape the last seat in W Mids0
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Perhaps not so much in her seat in Doncaster - or we have just seen Bolsover?nico67 said:Wake up Labour .
You heard it from the polling expert.
Labour are under more danger from the Lib Dems than the Brexit Party .
Caroline Flint and the rest of the Labour MPs in denial need to wake up !
Labour can’t get a majority based on Islington and inner London.0 -
West Midlands
3 Brexit (Rupert Lowe, Martin Daubney, Andrew Kerr)
1 Lab (Neena Gill)
1 LD (Phil Bennion)
1 Green (Ellie Chowns)
1 Con (Anthea McIntyre)
Sion Simon unseated0 -
The Brexit Party Vote seems to be roughly 75% UKIP and the other 25% from Lab and Con. Most of the Tory losses from 2014 seem to be Lib Dem, not Brexit0
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So change UK has cost the Lib Dem's 2 seats...0
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Dan Hannan interviewed on Sky wants a GE. I think he means that he wants Labour to shovel the Brexshit and therefore destroy itself.
He may also lose his EU seat so if that happens will he stand in the UK?
No change really in the W.Mids, except that Tories and Lab lose to Green and L.Dem.0 -
Magid Magid
What a name!1 -
> @maaarsh said:
> > @eek said:
> > So change UK has cost the Lib Dem's 2 seats...
>
> are you reallocating UKIP in this fantasy result?
Nope just looking at who would have won the 3rd and 4th seat if the CUK votes were added to the Lib Dems votes in the North East and Wales..
In both cases the Lib Dems would have picked up the other Brexit seat.0 -
> @eek said:
> > @maaarsh said:
> > > @eek said:
> > > So change UK has cost the Lib Dem's 2 seats...
> >
> > are you reallocating UKIP in this fantasy result?
>
> Nope just looking at who would have won the 3rd and 4th seat if the CUK votes were added to the Lib Dems votes in the North East and Wales..
>
> In both cases the Lib Dems would have picked up the other Brexit seat.
Have you ever heard about saucing geese and ganders?0 -
How many different parties are now in with a chance of winning the largest number of seats in the next general election ?
More than two, I think0 -
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