> @Byronic said: > > @RobinWiggs said: > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate > > > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon. > > > > Me three.< > > +++++++ > > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
> @TOPPING said: > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon. > > Last week, me: > > "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
I don't know if he'll win! Just a personal preference.
In my heart I would prefer Hunt but horses for courses, and this course needs someone who backed Leave
> @TOPPING said: > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon. > > Last week, me: > > "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
The message from this election is that sitting on the fence on Brexit is electoral suicide.
> @dixiedean said: > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
> @AndyJS said: > What on earth were those pollsters who were putting the LDs behind Labour thinking of?
I think the online compaign and organisation of young, last-minute previously unregistered voters, might have swung it. Not confirned to vote till the last minute.
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced. > > This is 8 points higher than in 2014." > > Has Britain saved Europe???
We made the whole thing a lot more interesting, with Brexit.
> @AndyJS said: > Squeaky bum time for me — BRX currently on 31% and I need 29.99%.
Does that figure include the whole of London where they only got 18%? If so surely the BXP will end up much higher when Wales and the remaining English regions come in?
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Last week, me:
>
> "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
The message from this election is that sitting on the fence on Brexit is electoral suicide.
Yes, and unfortunately 'doing a deal' is now seen as sitting on the fence.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @dixiedean said: > > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough. > > Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
There is zero point to CHUK - they don't stand for anything distinctive. There is no reason to vote for them. The new LD leader will be well advised just to smile, nod and move on to something that really matters.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @dixiedean said: > > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough. > > Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
> @TheWhiteRabbit said: > "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced. > > This is 8 points higher than in 2014." > > Has Britain saved Europe???
Er no... we've dragged turnout down to close to 50%
> > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
> >
> > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
> >
> > Me three.<
>
> +++++++
>
> Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
After this result, of course Boris will win.
Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.
There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
> @dyedwoolie said: > > @dixiedean said: > > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough. > > Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
Heidi Allen on the BBC is hilarious. Got absolutely trounced and got no seats but apparently it is a really good result because they have some really good 'energy'.
> What on earth were those pollsters who were putting the LDs behind Labour thinking of?
I think the online compaign and organisation of young, last-minute previously unregistered voters, might have swung it. Not confirned to vote till the last minute.
The significant turnout jumps in university seats suggests younger voters are a lot of the story tonight.
Meanwhile Heidi on the BBC talking about working with the LDs
> "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
>
> This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
>
> Has Britain saved Europe???
Er no... we've dragged turnout down to close to 50%
I thought the point might have been the Brexit issue, which has certainly sparked pro-EU sentiment in this country, may have to some degree encouraged more people to actually turnout and show their own backing for the institution this time around.
Nothing would be so simple of course, but I didn't think the point was our turnout was higher than others, but that the awfulness of how Brexit has gone is making people want to vote more in other places, in advertently.
Although turnout doesn't really count if there is compulsory voting.
40% vote share for Brexit/Conservative alliance. 15%...15% for Labour- that is just pathetic. Do you still want a GE Jeremy- you have killed the Labour Party!
I think the SE and SW regions could be just slightly disappointing for the Brexit Party compared to the Eastern region because the Greens and CUK could be a bit higher in those two regions. Also the SE is very slowly becoming more like London than it used to be.
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
There is zero point to CHUK - they don't stand for anything distinctive. There is no reason to vote for them. The new LD leader will be well advised just to smile, nod and move on to something that really matters.
> @RobinWiggs said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > @RobinWiggs said: > > > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate > > > > > > > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon. > > > > > > > > Me three.< > > > > > > +++++++ > > > > > > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win. > > > > After this result, of course Boris will win. > > Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories. > > There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count. > > It’s over.
Yup ; as I mentioned a few months ago the hardcore Brexit vote never seems to top out at beyond what was the core tory vote - about 33 % at the most, and late 20s on a bad day. It's not enough.
> > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> > >
>
> > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> > >
>
> > > Me three.<
>
> >
>
> > +++++++
>
> >
>
> > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
>
>
>
> After this result, of course Boris will win.
>
> Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.
>
> There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
>
> It’s over.
Yup, as I mentioned a few months ago the hardcore Brexit vote never seems to top out at beyond what was the core tory vote - about 33 % at the most, and late 20s on a bad day. It's not enough.
Curtice just said the same on the Beeb. He’s obviously reading PBC tonight.
Yep. Sucks to be them I guess, but you cannot straddle this line forever - they've tried, and it looked like it was working for a long time, but it didn't in the end.
> @RobinWiggs said: > > @Byronic said: > > > > @RobinWiggs said: > > > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate > > > > > > > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon. > > > > > > > > Me three.< > > > > > > +++++++ > > > > > > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win. > > > > After this result, of course Boris will win. > > Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories. > > There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count. > > It’s over.
Indeed it is. I'd say the chance of Brexit actually happening is now below 20%.
The Brexit Party Vote seems to be roughly 75% UKIP and the other 25% from Lab and Con. Most of the Tory losses from 2014 seem to be Lib Dem, not Brexit
> @eek said: > > @maaarsh said: > > > @eek said: > > > So change UK has cost the Lib Dem's 2 seats... > > > > are you reallocating UKIP in this fantasy result? > > Nope just looking at who would have won the 3rd and 4th seat if the CUK votes were added to the Lib Dems votes in the North East and Wales.. > > In both cases the Lib Dems would have picked up the other Brexit seat.
Have you ever heard about saucing geese and ganders?
Comments
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132768987580964866
LMAO
It's her Colonelcy all over again.
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132768987580964866
Total rubbish. Baxter is king.
"Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
Beating LIDL quite comfortably
> > @RobinWiggs said:
> > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
> >
> > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
> >
> > Me three.<
>
> +++++++
>
> Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
After this result, of course Boris will win.
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Last week, me:
>
> "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
I don't know if he'll win! Just a personal preference.
In my heart I would prefer Hunt but horses for courses, and this course needs someone who backed Leave
> What was BritainElects forecast?
Wrong!
> What was BritainElects forecast?<
++++
They haven't mentioned it recently. lol.
https://twitter.com/McrElects/status/1132768250276794369
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Last week, me:
>
> "Just topped up on Gove btw @ 12.5. The more I see it the more he is one of the few chameleon types who could pull off being either leave or remain."
The message from this election is that sitting on the fence on Brexit is electoral suicide.
This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
Has Britain saved Europe???
> > @Black_Rook said:
>
> > London:
>
> >
>
> > Animal Welfare Party: 25,232
>
> > Change UK: 117,635
>
> > Conservatives: 177,964
>
> > Greens: 278,957
>
> > Labour: 536,810
>
> > Lib Dems: 608,725
>
> > Brexit Party: 400,257
>
> > UKEUP: 18,806
>
> > Ukip: 46,497
>
> > Women's Equality Party: 23,766
>
> >
>
> > Seats:
>
> >
>
> > 3 LDs
>
> > 2 Lab
>
> > 2 Brexit
>
> > 1 Green
>
> >
>
> > **ENDS**
>
>
>
> Who predicted over a million LibDem votes in London ?
>
> LD, green and CUK have more or less a million between them
But that wasn't the prediction was it.
> All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
> What on earth were those pollsters who were putting the LDs behind Labour thinking of?
I think the online compaign and organisation of young, last-minute previously unregistered voters, might have swung it. Not confirned to vote till the last minute.
EPP 178 (-38)
S&D 152 (-35)
ALDE 108 (+39)
G/EFA 69 (+15)
> Complacency from Thornberry
She's London. To be expected.
https://twitter.com/HelenHet20/status/1132769672795963392
> "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
>
> This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
>
> Has Britain saved Europe???
We made the whole thing a lot more interesting, with Brexit.
> Current UK voteshares Brexit Party 31% LDs 21% Lab 15% Greens 12% Cons 9%
Just re-posting my projection from Friday while it still looks quite good:
BP 29%
LD 21%
Lab 18%
Green 12%
Con 8%
UKIP 4%
CUK 3%
NATs 5%
But always good to see people turning out to vote.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132707971669086212
> Squeaky bum time for me — BRX currently on 31% and I need 29.99%.
Does that figure include the whole of London where they only got 18%? If so surely the BXP will end up much higher when Wales and the remaining English regions come in?
> > @dixiedean said:
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
There is zero point to CHUK - they don't stand for anything distinctive. There is no reason to vote for them. The new LD leader will be well advised just to smile, nod and move on to something that really matters.
> > @dixiedean said:
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
The splitters vote was NOTA - it wont transfer.
> "Turnout across all 28 member states, including the UK, has risen to 50.5%, the European parliament has announced.
>
> This is 8 points higher than in 2014."
>
> Has Britain saved Europe???
Er no... we've dragged turnout down to close to 50%
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132771345056587781
I don’t usually touch the water of life, but...
https://twitter.com/BBCPropaganda/status/1132770382199623680
There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
It’s over.
> https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132771345056587781
Could it force them to reinvent themselves as a non-unionist party?
> > @dixiedean said:
> > All over for Change UK surely. No councillors, no MEPs, no candidate in Peterborough.
>
> Theyll beg the Lib Dems for some stardust. Looks like theyll get 4% nationally, a useful adjunct to the LD vote, some sort of Alliance arrangement but heavily skewed to LDs
Heidi Allen on the BBC is hilarious. Got absolutely trounced and got no seats but apparently it is a really good result because they have some really good 'energy'.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1132771345056587781
>
> Could it force them to reinvent themselves as a non-unionist party?
If they're going to do that then they might as well disband. Members can pick the SNP or the Greens and join them instead.
Meanwhile Heidi on the BBC talking about working with the LDs
Nothing would be so simple of course, but I didn't think the point was our turnout was higher than others, but that the awfulness of how Brexit has gone is making people want to vote more in other places, in advertently.
Although turnout doesn't really count if there is compulsory voting.
> https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1132771890777473032
>
>
>
> https://twitter.com/BBCPropaganda/status/1132770382199623680
People forget Thornberry’s seat used to be a marginal - in 2005 she only beat the LDs by less than 500 votes.
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > > @RobinWiggs said:
>
> > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> > >
>
> > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> > >
>
> > > Me three.<
>
> >
>
> > +++++++
>
> >
>
> > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
>
>
>
> After this result, of course Boris will win.
>
> Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.
>
> There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
>
> It’s over.
Yup ; as I mentioned a few months ago the hardcore Brexit vote never seems to top out at beyond what was the core tory vote - about 33 % at the most, and late 20s on a bad day. It's not enough.
Brexit 31%
Lab 23%
Con 14%
LD 12%
Green 7%
ChangeUK 4%
UKIP 3%
> > @Byronic said:
>
> > > @RobinWiggs said:
>
> > > It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> > >
>
> > > I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> > >
>
> > > Me three.<
>
> >
>
> > +++++++
>
> >
>
> > Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.
>
>
>
> After this result, of course Boris will win.
>
> Which is the wrong message to take. The No-dealers are topping out at around a third of the vote, maybe a couple more if you add in UKIP and a few tories.
>
> There is no route to victory from there. If Brexit is to be saved, it needs a neat pivot quickly. But the headbangers can’t count.
>
> It’s over.
Indeed it is. I'd say the chance of Brexit actually happening is now below 20%.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132772976384978946?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/12411/european-parliament-election-results-weekend?page=25
> Labour fearing to be down to 1 seat in NW
Amazing if true.
You heard it from the polling expert.
Labour are under more danger from the Lib Dems than the Brexit Party .
Caroline Flint and the rest of the Labour MPs in denial need to wake up !
Nathan Gills (Brexit)
James Wells (Brexit)
Jill Evans (Plaid)
Jacqueline Jones (Labour)
Labour can’t get a majority based on Islington and inner London.
3 Brexit (Rupert Lowe, Martin Daubney, Andrew Kerr)
1 Lab (Neena Gill)
1 LD (Phil Bennion)
1 Green (Ellie Chowns)
1 Con (Anthea McIntyre)
Sion Simon unseated
He may also lose his EU seat so if that happens will he stand in the UK?
No change really in the W.Mids, except that Tories and Lab lose to Green and L.Dem.
> So change UK has cost the Lib Dem's 2 seats...
are you reallocating UKIP in this fantasy result?
What a name!
> > @eek said:
> > So change UK has cost the Lib Dem's 2 seats...
>
> are you reallocating UKIP in this fantasy result?
Nope just looking at who would have won the 3rd and 4th seat if the CUK votes were added to the Lib Dems votes in the North East and Wales..
In both cases the Lib Dems would have picked up the other Brexit seat.
> > @maaarsh said:
> > > @eek said:
> > > So change UK has cost the Lib Dem's 2 seats...
> >
> > are you reallocating UKIP in this fantasy result?
>
> Nope just looking at who would have won the 3rd and 4th seat if the CUK votes were added to the Lib Dems votes in the North East and Wales..
>
> In both cases the Lib Dems would have picked up the other Brexit seat.
Have you ever heard about saucing geese and ganders?
More than two, I think
> Magid Magid
>
> What a name!
He's a lovely guy