> @kle4 said: > Looks like Lab 15% Con 10% to me > > Psycologically the Tories really need to remain in double figures. It's a hounding either way, but these little things matter.
> @viewcode said: > Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the opposition.
> @murali_s said: > While fascism is on the wane in Europe, it's rearing its ugly head here in the UK. > > The extreme right are on the march here in the UK. Be afraid, be very afraid! >
> @Artist said: > Thornberry isn't making moves, they'll get Barry Gardner on later saying Labour are a Brexit Party. It's totally deliberate from Labour.<
++++
Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
While fascism is on the wane in Europe, it's rearing its ugly head here in the UK.
The extreme right are on the march here in the UK. Be afraid, be very afraid!
The UKIP vote is significantly down. What are you on about?
(No, like many on here, I don't think BXP are fascist. Right wing certainly, but not far right, hard right or any other label you'd want to give them.)
> @Paristonda said: > > @Paristonda said: > > > Lib Dems getting 17% but no seat in the NE, quite a threshold for a "PR" system > > > > why should 17% get a seat when there are only 3 seats in the NE? > > It shouldn't exist as a region for EU election, group it with a neighbouring one to offer more seats and make it more proportional.
They should have kept the old Northern region which also included Cumbria.
> @AndyJS said: > > @Paristonda said: > > > @Paristonda said: > > > > > Lib Dems getting 17% but no seat in the NE, quite a threshold for a "PR" system > > > > > > > > why should 17% get a seat when there are only 3 seats in the NE? > > > > It shouldn't exist as a region for EU election, group it with a neighbouring one to offer more seats and make it more proportional. > > They should have kept the old Northern region which also included Cumbria.
> @IanB2 said: > Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the oposition. > > Third in Redbridge as above ________
In theory, especially with an unwritten constitution, FPTP allows a PM to win a massive majority on 33% of the votes and 'go rogue'.
Labour will get a kicking in Scotland in the vote change because the 2014 Euros were the last elections held before the ScotRef that changed everything.
> @murali_s said: > While fascism is on the wane in Europe, it's rearing its ugly head here in the UK. > > The extreme right are on the march here in the UK. Be afraid, be very afraid! > <
+++++
Except that Tommy Robinson has been massively defeated. UKIP are nowhere. Fascism (if it ever existed) had been told to sod off.
The BXP are populists with one issue. That's it. They are not the Gestapo. Painting them as such is hysterical nonsense and plays into their narrative. Stop it.
> @Byronic said: > > Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn. > > Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
--------
The thing is that the likes of Flint are probably right. Given the trajectory of the polarisation of the country, if Labour try to become an explicit Remain party, they will sacrifice a lot of MPs, and will still struggle to be trusted by Remainers.
> @rural_voter said: > > @IanB2 said: > > Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the oposition. > > > > Third in Redbridge as above > ________ > > In theory, especially with an unwritten constitution, FPTP allows a PM to win a massive majority on 33% of the votes and 'go rogue'. > > Hence NZ adopted PR ~20 years ago. > > The UK is mad not to do likewise.
> @Jonathan said: > Everyone is desperate to claim victory here, but the truth is the country is divided with compromise further away than ever. We’re all losers.
If things go on like this for very much longer (and, in fact, we may already be past the point of no return) then the age of two party politics is dead.
Labour and the Tories are going to have to pick sides on Brexit, or fall down the chasm between them and never be seen again. And when the Tories ditch their Remainers and Labour ditch their Leavers, all those votes will become available to the other parties.
It's the main positive from this mess. The Tories are in total chaos, and Corbynite Labour is patently unfit to govern. They are narrow cliques that don't represent most of the people. They both need to be restrained.
> @hamiltonace said: > As I suggested 30 mins ago. This is the end of Hard Brexit. There is no political mandate for it in the country.
Agreed. Hard Brexit is way short of being able to claim a majority based on tonight's figures. And if it's not going to be hard Brexit then the likelihood is that it will be no Brexit.
> @HYUFD said: > Scotland in so far > > SNP 39% > Brexit Party 16% > Tories 12% > LDs 12% > Labour 11%
Much in line with the three full-sample Scottish Euro VI polls: SNP 38% - 40% Labour 14% - 20% Brexit Party 10% - 16% Conservatives 10% - 16% Lib Dems 6% - 10% Greens 3% - 7%
Well done, Theresa May. You have taken the life-force of the Conservative Party and used it resurrect both Nigel Farage and the Liberal Democrats. Dr. Frankenstein and the Re-animator are looking on in awe.....
> Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
>
> Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
--------
The thing is that the likes of Flint are probably right. Given the trajectory of the polarisation of the country, if Labour try to become an explicit Remain party, they will sacrifice a lot of MPs, and will still struggle to be trusted by Remainers.
There's only a handful of Labour MPs who are worried about the consequences of remaining, and not as many as say they are concerned about it either as they almost all refused to do anything about it. Some will need to be sacrificed to the overwhelming wish of the party.
With the Tories about to split Labour can take such a body blow and stay on their feet, electorally.
It pains me to say it as a Tory Leaver who stayed loyal on Thursday, but the irony of tonight is that Brexit is now likely not to be delivered despite Brexit Party topping the polls.
Labour are likely to complete the pivot now to full on Remain, meaning this parliament will not deliver an exit. The new Tory leader can not deliver a majority for any deal, and no deal will be blocked again. The only options are another referendum or a general election.
In a GE, Brexit Party will kill off a Tory government but won’t win themselves; meaning both the new parliament and the new government will be formally Remain.
And it’s the ERG purists who will be to blame for putting us here.
The Conservative party decamped en masse to Mr Farage. Well done Sir!. It has to be out deal or no deal by end of October come what may.
Had lunch at my sister's today. She's not political but wrote a letter to Mrs May, thanking her for her efforts and expressing solidarity with her for all she has been put through. etc. Mrs CC holds similar views.
Comments
Results from Bromley:
https://www.bromley.gov.uk/press/article/1515/european_parliamentary_elections_2019
Brexit Party 1st, LDs second, Greens third, Conservatives fourth.
Lewisham:
https://lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/results/election-results-2019/european-election-2019-results/european-election-2019---lewisham-results
LDs first, Labour 2nd, Greens 3rd, Brexit Party 4th, CUK 5th, Conservatives 6th.
> Looks like Lab 15% Con 10% to me
>
> Psycologically the Tories really need to remain in double figures. It's a hounding either way, but these little things matter.
On 10% they are fighting for maybe 3 MEPs
> Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the opposition.
Yes. Scotland and NI.
> I live near Boris's seat and can confirm TSE's analysis that Boris will lose it in next election
Even with incumbent party leader bonus?
My guess is that - once all the votes are in - the country as a whole is still pretty much divided 50/50 between Leave and Remain
And that tomorrow pretty much everyone will go round saying that this means we absolutely must go for a No Deal Brexit. Er .... does it?
Anyway, am pleased for the Lib Dems and for the Greens.
Where do we get actual results for other European countries?
> While fascism is on the wane in Europe, it's rearing its ugly head here in the UK.
>
> The extreme right are on the march here in the UK. Be afraid, be very afraid!
>
Where in Europe?
The old ones are the best...
Con: 13.3% (-19.8)
LDem: 12.8% (+10.2)
Grn: 8.6% (+5.3)
Lab: 5.8% (-7.6)
UKIP: 5.5% (-35.2)
South Staffs!!!
> Thornberry isn't making moves, they'll get Barry Gardner on later saying Labour are a Brexit Party. It's totally deliberate from Labour.<
++++
Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
> Techncially some of the better results for the Tories so far are coming from Scotland - double figures in a number of those at least!
So, Ruth will be FM on 11% of the vote? Titter.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132762103641759749?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/12411/european-parliament-election-results-weekend?page=20
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132761949274558464
She wants the top job for herself - that much seems clear tonight
(No, like many on here, I don't think BXP are fascist. Right wing certainly, but not far right, hard right or any other label you'd want to give them.)
CON 0% in Rotherham?
25 to 21%
> > @Paristonda said:
>
> > Lib Dems getting 17% but no seat in the NE, quite a threshold for a "PR" system
>
>
>
> why should 17% get a seat when there are only 3 seats in the NE?
>
> It shouldn't exist as a region for EU election, group it with a neighbouring one to offer more seats and make it more proportional.
They should have kept the old Northern region which also included Cumbria.
80% ?
Can you imagine what Farage is going to say ?
> Do we know the shares in the North East yet? How close was the third seat.
Close between Labour and LibDem. But not enough for the LibDem.
> Andrea
>
> That’s not Brian Monteith the former Tory MSP and Scotsman columnist?
It is.
https://twitter.com/glivett/status/1132324216362164224
> > @Paristonda said:
> > > @Paristonda said:
> >
> > > Lib Dems getting 17% but no seat in the NE, quite a threshold for a "PR" system
> >
> >
> >
> > why should 17% get a seat when there are only 3 seats in the NE?
> >
> > It shouldn't exist as a region for EU election, group it with a neighbouring one to offer more seats and make it more proportional.
>
> They should have kept the old Northern region which also included Cumbria.
+1
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1132760018951000065
> Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the oposition.
>
> Third in Redbridge as above
________
In theory, especially with an unwritten constitution, FPTP allows a PM to win a massive majority on 33% of the votes and 'go rogue'.
Hence NZ adopted PR ~20 years ago.
The UK is mad not to do likewise.
https://twitter.com/JoshHalliday/status/1132757118887628800
SNP 39%
Brexit Party 16%
Tories 12%
LDs 12%
Labour 11%
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1132763097939288074
> While fascism is on the wane in Europe, it's rearing its ugly head here in the UK.
>
> The extreme right are on the march here in the UK. Be afraid, be very afraid!
> <
+++++
Except that Tommy Robinson has been massively defeated. UKIP are nowhere. Fascism (if it ever existed) had been told to sod off.
The BXP are populists with one issue. That's it. They are not the Gestapo. Painting them as such is hysterical nonsense and plays into their narrative. Stop it.
>
> Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
>
> Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
--------
The thing is that the likes of Flint are probably right. Given the trajectory of the polarisation of the country, if Labour try to become an explicit Remain party, they will sacrifice a lot of MPs, and will still struggle to be trusted by Remainers.
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132758897431928834
>
>
>
>
>
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132758897431928834
>
>
>
>
>
> Redbridge. Home of Mike Gapes' huge personal vote...Change UK not even registering a score in many of these.
>
> Ilford North as well! My home patch.
I thought Redbridge might be one of the few places where Labour would win.
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the oposition.
> >
> > Third in Redbridge as above
> ________
>
> In theory, especially with an unwritten constitution, FPTP allows a PM to win a massive majority on 33% of the votes and 'go rogue'.
>
> Hence NZ adopted PR ~20 years ago.
>
> The UK is mad not to do likewise.
NZ does not have PR. It has MMP
> Everyone is desperate to claim victory here, but the truth is the country is divided with compromise further away than ever. We’re all losers.
If things go on like this for very much longer (and, in fact, we may already be past the point of no return) then the age of two party politics is dead.
Labour and the Tories are going to have to pick sides on Brexit, or fall down the chasm between them and never be seen again. And when the Tories ditch their Remainers and Labour ditch their Leavers, all those votes will become available to the other parties.
It's the main positive from this mess. The Tories are in total chaos, and Corbynite Labour is patently unfit to govern. They are narrow cliques that don't represent most of the people. They both need to be restrained.
> Current votes (BBC):
>
>
>
> Brexit 31%
>
> LD 20% (+12)
>
> Lab 17% (-13)
>
> Greens 12% (+4)
>
> Con 7% (-12)
>
> UKIP 4%
>
> CHUK 3%
>
> Amazing, BP+UKIP=LD+Green+CUK.
>
> It's almost like the country is split down the middle...
But it's split 35-35-30 ...
> Current votes (BBC):
>
>
>
> Brexit 31%
>
> LD 20% (+12)
>
> Lab 17% (-13)
>
> Greens 12% (+4)
>
> Con 7% (-12)
>
> UKIP 4%
>
> CHUK 3%
>
> Amazing, BP+UKIP=LD+Green+CUK.
Most of the polls had the former well ahead of the latter.
> As I suggested 30 mins ago. This is the end of Hard Brexit. There is no political mandate for it in the country.
Agreed. Hard Brexit is way short of being able to claim a majority based on tonight's figures. And if it's not going to be hard Brexit then the likelihood is that it will be no Brexit.
> I know Theresa May hates me, so just watch her ensure the Tories poll 10.01%.
I know. Annoying, isn't it?
90% counted
Socialists 20 seats
People Party 12
Citizens 7
Podemos 5
Vox 3
AHORA REPÚBLICA 3
JUNTS 2
CEUS 1
https://www.kingston.gov.uk/news/article/897/2019_european_parliamentary_election_results
LDs first, Brexit Party second, Green third, Conservative fourth, Labour fifth
> https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1132763711356035073
Lol!
> Scotland in so far
>
> SNP 39%
> Brexit Party 16%
> Tories 12%
> LDs 12%
> Labour 11%
Much in line with the three full-sample Scottish Euro VI polls:
SNP 38% - 40%
Labour 14% - 20%
Brexit Party 10% - 16%
Conservatives 10% - 16%
Lib Dems 6% - 10%
Greens 3% - 7%
(European Parliament voting intention; Scottish full-sample opinion polls 2019)
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132762437839667200
Three weeks ago:
' The Conservatives have secured a majority on North East Lincolnshire Council for the first time in the local authority’s 23-year history. '
https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/conservatives-win-north-east-lincolnshire-2827069
With the Tories about to split Labour can take such a body blow and stay on their feet, electorally.
> https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1132760402264231936
So what alternative does she suggest?
David Lammy will be thrilled...
Labour are likely to complete the pivot now to full on Remain, meaning this parliament will not deliver an exit. The new Tory leader can not deliver a majority for any deal, and no deal will be blocked again. The only options are another referendum or a general election.
In a GE, Brexit Party will kill off a Tory government but won’t win themselves; meaning both the new parliament and the new government will be formally Remain.
And it’s the ERG purists who will be to blame for putting us here.
Deeply depressed tonight.
> Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
By that logic they are rejecting remain also.
> @Black_Rook said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132764020170268678
>
> David Lammy will be thrilled...
> Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
Possibly. But is there a majority FOR anything else?
> > @another_richard said:
> > https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1132760402264231936
>
> So what alternative does she suggest?
Flint has consistently supported the agreed deal.
> Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
What have they voted for, if not the 36% or so in favour of No Deal?
Lab+Con compromise deals 24%
Revoke 30%
Glad that's sorted
It has to be out deal or no deal by end of October come what may.
Had lunch at my sister's today. She's not political but wrote a letter to Mrs May, thanking her for her efforts and expressing solidarity with her for all she has been put through. etc. Mrs CC holds similar views.