politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two
Comments
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Elected in East
Richard Tice Brexit
Michael Heaver Brexit
June Mummery Brexit
Barbara Gibson LD
Lucy Nethsingha LD
Catherine Rowett Green
Geoffrey Van Orden Con0 -
> @AndyJS said:
> Brexit Party get 38% in perhaps their best region.
>
> Suggest they may just slip below 30% overall to me.
Is the East of England the best region?0 -
Darth Vader: "This is a day long to be remembered: it has seen the end of Theresa May. It shall soon see the end of the Tory Party!"TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories that voted Leave in 2016 probably voted to destroy the Union and the Tory party.
Take a bow.0 -
Terrible result for BXP < 30% punters0
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> @ydoethur said:
> Thornberry' analysis isn't ageing well. That was Tory voters fleeing to the Liberal Democrats and Labour fleeing to Greens.
?
In the East?
Most Tory flight was definitely to BXP, "assisted" by the fact UKIP had already done well five years ago0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> So the Tories that voted Leave in 2016 probably voted to destroy the Union and the Tory party.
>
> Take a bow.
Brexit Party second in Scotland and SNP under 40% and Brexit Party well ahead in Wales so not certain about that in terms of the Union.
The Brexit Party over 30% and the Tories under 10% nationwide though shows the Tories on life support which may be switched off if they fail to deliver Brexit0 -
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> @RobinWiggs said:
> It pains me to say it as a Tory Leaver who stayed loyal on Thursday, but the irony of tonight is that Brexit is now likely not to be delivered despite Brexit Party topping the polls.
>
> Labour are likely to complete the pivot now to full on Remain, meaning this parliament will not deliver an exit. The new Tory leader can not deliver a majority for any deal, and no deal will be blocked again. The only options are another referendum or a general election.
>
> In a GE, Brexit Party will kill off a Tory government but won’t win themselves; meaning both the new parliament and the new government will be formally Remain.
>
> And it’s the ERG purists who will be to blame for putting us here.
>
> Deeply depressed tonight.
Agree with this analysis. Brexit is now very unlikely to go ahead - the only way it could happen is if the EU refuse a further A50 extension, but that is not likely.0 -
Current BBC vote percentages: Brexit 33%, Lib Dem 20%, Lab 13%, Green 12%, Con 9%
Live chance Greens will now supplant Labour in third. Tories in ruins.0 -
Suzanne Evans just said we're seeing the death of two parties, causing Emily Thornberry to flinch, but then went on to name Change UK and UKIP.0
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> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
>
> > So the Tories that voted Leave in 2016 probably voted to destroy the Union and the Tory party.
>
> >
>
> > Take a bow.
>
>
>
> Ta. We owe you one.
>
> Don't get overexcited, I remember your 'the clueless wonders are in for a shock' comment the day before the Indyref.
The clueless wonders thought that Project Fear had saved the Union. It hadn’t. It had undermined the very foundations of the Union.0 -
I'm calling it - no Lab or Con in the SW - it needed themto hold up well to manage that I think.0
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Might be worth your looking up Thornberry’s background.Y0kel said:> @_Anazina_ said:
> Emily Thornberry would stuff Boris in a General Election.
Yeah two extremely silver spooners. Thats representative of the masses.0 -
Aside from the frivolity, this is a really significant comparison.another_richard said:> @TGOHF said:
>
Three weeks ago:
' The Conservatives have secured a majority on North East Lincolnshire Council for the first time in the local authority’s 23-year history. '
https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/conservatives-win-north-east-lincolnshire-2827069
People have not changed their opinion en masse in three weeks. Voting for the Brexit Party in a referendum-by-any-other-name does not mean you'd vote for them if they stood for your local council. It therefore does not mean you'd necessarily vote for them in Westminster.
We are probably overstating the death of the Conservative Party, the emergence of the Faragistes, and the revival of the Lib Dems.
That said, who knows anything any more.0 -
> @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Brexit Party get 38% in perhaps their best region.
> >
> > Suggest they may just slip below 30% overall to me.
>
> Is the East of England the best region?
39% in the North East. Probably something similar in the East and West Midlands.0 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
> Revoke and Remain one point behind No Deal in the East of England. The overall result could be very interesting.
Especially given the turnout differential between Remain and Leave regions.0 -
If Thornberry's only positive is the defeat of Tommy Robinson, she knows she is struggling to find anything to say about her own Party1
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It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate0
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79% counted in France
LePen 25.13
Macron 21.52
Greens 12.71
Republicains8.37
Melenchon 6.25
Socialists 5.99
rest well below threshold0 -
It keeps us abreast of events...Casino_Royale said:Laura K has a bit of cleavage going on tonight.
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> @TGOHF said:
> > @Theuniondivvie said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> > > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > > SNP given their manic levels of dickheadery will use this as an argument for a 2nd referendum.
> > >
> > > They use a burst water main in Carlisle as an Indy ref trigger. Best ignored.
> >
> > You okay, hun?
>
> I’m enjoying the results immensely, tarrier.
Lol, since I'm born & baptised Church of Scotland you should at least choose your sectarian slurs a bit more carefully. Still, I'm sure Ruth can organise some diversity training for you.0 -
If Scotland votes for independence, and England then Revokes - Scotland would cease to be a member of the EU even though they were the most vocal about staying in.williamglenn said:> @StuartDickson said:
> Daft Swedish public broadcaster SVT saying that the UK is leaving the EU.
>
> I wonder when it’ll sink in...
Technically correct. The UK will cease to be a member when it is dissolved.
That would be - ironic...0 -
Does the Pandas and Tories joke work south of the border?0
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Brxit party win 19 out of 22 constituencies in Wales - Plaid win the other 30
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> @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Brexit Party get 38% in perhaps their best region.
> >
> > Suggest they may just slip below 30% overall to me.
>
> Is the East of England the best region?
Given they got 39% in the North East, it already isn't.0 -
Emily Thornberry, "Jeremy is overwhelmingly a democrat". Not completely then. This is increasingly sounding like a leadership challenge.0
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First projections from Italy for La7
Lega 32
PD 21.7
5 Stars 19.6
Forza Italia 8.6
Fratelli Italia 6.2
+Europa 3.4
Projections for Rai
Lega 30%
PD 21.3%
5 Stars 20.2%0 -
I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.TheWhiteRabbit said:It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
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We knew they would be in ruins, it's a question of if there is enough left to make a decent afternoon outing to take a look at the wreckage. It's borderline. Lab are doing quite a bit worse than I had thought, but no, Tories, that won't distract from your result as you might only get 2 MEPs!Black_Rook said:Current BBC vote percentages: Brexit 33%, Lib Dem 20%, Lab 13%, Green 12%, Con 9%
Live chance Greens will now supplant Labour in third. Tories in ruins.0 -
Brexit Party now on 31% overall.0
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London region results
LDs first Labour Party 2nd Brexit Party 3rd Greens 4th Conservatives 5th0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> Suzanne Evans just said we're seeing the death of two parties, causing Emily Thornberry to flinch, but then went on to name Change UK and UKIP.
Cuks fcuked.
Been dying to use that one.1 -
> @Richard_Tyndall said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Brexit Party get 38% in perhaps their best region.
> >
> > Suggest they may just slip below 30% overall to me.
>
> Is the East of England the best region?
I would have thought that BRX will get high 30s in:
SW England
East England
NE England
Wales
They'll get mid-30s in:
The West Midlands
NW England
East Midlands
Yorkshire & The Humber
Low 30s in:
SE England
20s in:
Scotland
London
(This is based on the assumption they get 33% or so overall)0 -
@ydoethur , I trust you recognise the Gloucestershire organist connection there?AndreaParma_82 said:Elected in East
Richard Tice Brexit
Michael Heaver Brexit
June Mummery Brexit
Barbara Gibson LD
Lucy Nethsingha LD
Catherine Rowett Green
Geoffrey Van Orden Con0 -
Close between CHUK and Tory in London.0
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> @AndreaParma_82 said:
> 79% counted in France
>
> LePen 25.13
> Macron 21.52
> Greens 12.71
> Republicains8.37
> Melenchon 6.25
> Socialists 5.99
>
> rest well below threshold <
+++++
OK, that's a significant thrashing for Macron, and a good result for Le Pen/Gilets Jaunes0 -
> @williamglenn said:
> > @StuartDickson said:
> > Daft Swedish public broadcaster SVT saying that the UK is leaving the EU.
> >
> > I wonder when it’ll sink in...
>
> Technically correct. The UK will cease to be a member when it is dissolved.
That’s a keeper!0 -
0
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Tories in 5th in London!0
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London:
LDs 608,725
Lab 536,810
Brexit 400,257
Green 278,957
Con 177,964
ChangeUK 117,635
UKIP 46,497
LD 27%
Lab 24%
BRX 18%
Green 12%
Con 8%
CUK 5%
UKIP 2%0 -
Liberal Democrats win handsomely in London.1
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There may be something in what you say, but the actual problem for the Torie is not just this, they hope temporary, loss of support to the Brexit Party, it is how they dig themselves out of this whole. I see no shovel handy with which to do so.El_Capitano said:
Aside from the frivolity, this is a really significant comparison.another_richard said:> @TGOHF said:
>
Three weeks ago:
' The Conservatives have secured a majority on North East Lincolnshire Council for the first time in the local authority’s 23-year history. '
https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/conservatives-win-north-east-lincolnshire-2827069
People have not changed their opinion en masse in three weeks. Voting for the Brexit Party in a referendum-by-any-other-name does not mean you'd vote for them if they stood for your local council. It therefore does not mean you'd necessarily vote for them in Westminster.
We are probably overstating the death of the Conservative Party, the emergence of the Faragistes, and the revival of the Lib Dems.
That said, who knows anything any more.0 -
To think the grief Mike got for tipping the Lib Dems to beat the Brexit Party in London.0
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London:
Animal Welfare Party: 25,232
Change UK: 117,635
Conservatives: 177,964
Greens: 278,957
Labour: 536,810
Lib Dems: 608,725
Brexit Party: 400,257
UKEUP: 18,806
Ukip: 46,497
Women's Equality Party: 23,766
Seats:
3 LDs
2 Lab
2 Brexit
1 Green
**ENDS**0 -
Over half a million Brexiters in London..0
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3 LD MEPs elected in London 2 Brexit Party MEPs and 2 Labour MEPs and 1 Green MEP0
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LDs three in London to Labour’s two0
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0
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Elected in London
Irina Von Wiese LD
Dinesh Dhamija LD
Luisa Porritt LD
Claude Moraes Lab
Sebastian Dance Lab
Benyamin Habib Brexit
Lance Forman Brexit
Scott Ainsli Greens0 -
Andrew Nethsingha's wife?El_Capitano said:
@ydoethur , I trust you recognise the Gloucestershire organist connection there?AndreaParma_82 said:Elected in East
Richard Tice Brexit
Michael Heaver Brexit
June Mummery Brexit
Barbara Gibson LD
Lucy Nethsingha LD
Catherine Rowett Green
Geoffrey Van Orden Con0 -
2 Brexit party for Landon.0
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> @_Anazina_ said:
> > @_Anazina_ said:
>
> > Emily Thornberry would stuff Boris in a General Election.
>
>
>
> Yeah two extremely silver spooners. Thats representative of the masses.
>
> Might be worth your looking up Thornberry’s background.
Yeah, thats a tough life...really....0 -
Con 8% in London0
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er, you do know what happened next...?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Darth Vader: "This is a day long to be remembered: it has seen the end of Theresa May. It shall soon see the end of the Tory Party!"TheScreamingEagles said:So the Tories that voted Leave in 2016 probably voted to destroy the Union and the Tory party.
Take a bow.0 -
Labour and the Brexit party get the same number of seats in London, LDs get 3 and the Tories Zero. Who would have thought that!0
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> @Black_Rook said:
> London:
>
> Animal Welfare Party: 25,232
> Change UK: 117,635
> Conservatives: 177,964
> Greens: 278,957
> Labour: 536,810
> Lib Dems: 608,725
> Brexit Party: 400,257
> UKEUP: 18,806
> Ukip: 46,497
> Women's Equality Party: 23,766
>
> Seats:
>
> 3 LDs
> 2 Lab
> 2 Brexit
> 1 Green
>
> **ENDS**
Who predicted over a million LibDem votes in London ?0 -
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How annoying, Labour losing my London bet by 3%.0
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If the Chuks had stood aside, the Yellows would be cleaning up here.TheScreamingEagles said:To think the grief Mike got for tipping the Lib Dems to beat the Brexit Party in London.
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> @Black_Rook said:
> London:
>
> Animal Welfare Party: 25,232
> Change UK: 117,635
> Conservatives: 177,964
> Greens: 278,957
> Labour: 536,810
> Lib Dems: 608,725
> Brexit Party: 400,257
> UKEUP: 18,806
> Ukip: 46,497
> Women's Equality Party: 23,766
>
> Seats:
>
> 3 LDs
> 2 Lab
> 2 Brexit
> 1 Green
>
> **ENDS**
Wow! The Lib Dems walked it! 3 seats!0 -
I've got a feeling I'm going to narrowly miss out on all my bets tonight.0
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> @CarlottaVance said:
> Emma vs Emily:
>
> https://twitter.com/EmmaLewellBuck/status/1132766995122937857
They're as hopelessly trapped as the Tories. The only consolation for Labour is that they're not getting so completely smashed. Yet.0 -
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The Cons expected a hammering from Farage but the LibDem surge presents them with as big a challenge, both electorally and on Brexit.0
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> @AndyJS said:
> London:
>
> LDs 608,725
> Lab 536,810
> Brexit 400,257
> Green 278,957
> Con 177,964
> ChangeUK 117,635
> UKIP 46,497
>
> LD 27%
> Lab 24%
> BRX 18%
> Green 12%
> Con 8%
> CUK 5%
> UKIP 2%
So there Brexit has less than half the percentage Leave got in the referendum. So given the high turnout in Remain territory it certainly looks plausible that Brexit could drop below 30%.0 -
> @Y0kel said:
> > @_Anazina_ said:
> > > @_Anazina_ said:
> >
> > > Emily Thornberry would stuff Boris in a General Election.
> >
> >
> >
> > Yeah two extremely silver spooners. Thats representative of the masses.
> >
> > Might be worth your looking up Thornberry’s background.
>
> Yeah, thats a tough life...really....
Lady Nugee?
Loves patriotic white van drivers cor blimee gov0 -
Lib Dems top the poll in London .
Labour in second . Absolute disaster for them .0 -
0
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> @Casino_Royale said:
> I've got a feeling I'm going to narrowly miss out on all my bets tonight.
What were you betting on in terms of Brexit Party share?0 -
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Me three.TheScreamingEagles said:
I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.TheWhiteRabbit said:It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
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I hope others got on my Ladbrokes 7/2 LDs to top the poll in London tip0
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If you sit on the fence long enough, the voters will come along, pull on each leg, and turn into a "Saw" remake....Nigelb said:0 -
> @marke09 said:
> Brxit party win 19 out of 22 constituencies in Wales - Plaid win the other 3
Thoroughly deserved thrashing for Welsh Labour.0 -
> @Byronic said:
>
> OK, that's a significant thrashing for Macron, and a good result for Le Pen/Gilets Jaunes
I wouldn't say that. Le Pen is virtually static versus 2014, and Macron is doing significantly better than the government at that time.0 -
And people will focus on Labour's woes some believe, hah!Scott_P said:0 -
> @oxfordsimon said:
> If Thornberry's only positive is the defeat of Tommy Robinson, she knows she is struggling to find anything to say about her own Party
She's been pretty open there is nothing positive to say about her own party. Quite refreshing really.0 -
> @MikeSmithson said:
> I hope others got on my Ladbrokes 7/2 LDs to top the poll in London tip
Well done Mike0 -
> @RobinWiggs said:
> It has to be Gove now, I think, as my preferred candidate
>
> I came to that realisation earlier on this afternoon.
>
> Me three.<
+++++++
Likewise. But I fear Boris will win.0 -
> @Byronic said:
> > @AndreaParma_82 said:
> > 79% counted in France
> >
> > LePen 25.13
> > Macron 21.52
> > Greens 12.71
> > Republicains8.37
> > Melenchon 6.25
> > Socialists 5.99
> >
> > rest well below threshold <
>
> +++++
>
> OK, that's a significant thrashing for Macron, and a good result for Le Pen/Gilets Jaunes
Le Pen's party now above the 24.8% she got in 2014 and clearly in first place ahead of Macron's En Marche0