politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two
Comments
-
> @tlg86 said:
> > @TheScreamingEagles said:
> > https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1132763711356035073
>
> Lol!
Whichever direction they move in, they will haemorrhage large numbers of votes. Oh dear.0 -
Nandy can be entirely discounted. What is she actually proposing anyone do, when she is one who would contenance any leave that is on offer, while moaning about remain being pushed too hard? She is just covering her own backside by looking sympathetic to leave without ever doing anything.Scott_P said:London Labour MPs are going to campaign heavily for them to swing to remain, but the Northern MPs are NOT happy...
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/1132763097939288074
Because in reality Labour are not getting the opportunity to renegotiate a whole new Brexit deal, so pushing that would be a unicorn, so would she vote for a Tory Brexit over Remain? Would she bollocks, she didn't do that even before the Tories became the No deal party (as of 46 minutes ago).0 -
I suspect that those votes lost to Labour on both sides because of the dishonest attempt to face both ways ain't coming back. Equally, I can't see the Conservatives regaining votes lost in the centre, or the party successfully out-Faraging Farage on the other side. Certainly Farage is never going give up his cries of 'Betrayal!' even if the Conservative Party chooses a leader as irresponsible as he is.
It's an even worse mess than looked likely a couple of months ago.0 -
> @Alistair said:
> Brexit Party currently on 31% according to the BBC. I need that to drop to 29.99%.
>
> A result that unites us all I hope.
>
> It was always a good value loser.
Don't forget we have Gibraltar, Northern Ireland and Scottish results to add in which could reduce their %.0 -
> @GarethoftheVale2 said:
> > @rural_voter said:
> > > @IanB2 said:
> > > Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the oposition.
> > >
> > > Third in Redbridge as above
> > ________
> >
> > In theory, especially with an unwritten constitution, FPTP allows a PM to win a massive majority on 33% of the votes and 'go rogue'.
> >
> > Hence NZ adopted PR ~20 years ago.
> >
> > The UK is mad not to do likewise.
>
> NZ does not have PR. It has MMP
__________
Which stands for Mixed Member Proportional, I understand
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_system_of_New_Zealand
which can be adjusted to be more proportional if one wishes, making one-party government very unlikely.0 -
She was talking about a confirmatory referendum on the deal. Since there is no deal now what does she actually want, the WA back?TheValiant said:Repost:
Jeez... Emily Thornberry telling it like it is.
(For those not watching on BBC - says basically Labour unclear on Brexit and should now back a 2nd Ref, and should then campaign to Remain)
If not, what would the referendum be on?0 -
> @anothernick said:
> > @another_richard said:
> > https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1132760402264231936
>
> So what alternative does she suggest?
Vote for the WA ?0 -
0
-
> @RobinWiggs said:
> It pains me to say it as a Tory Leaver who stayed loyal on Thursday, but the irony of tonight is that Brexit is now likely not to be delivered despite Brexit Party topping the polls.
>
> Labour are likely to complete the pivot now to full on Remain, meaning this parliament will not deliver an exit. The new Tory leader can not deliver a majority for any deal, and no deal will be blocked again. The only options are another referendum or a general election.
>
> In a GE, Brexit Party will kill off a Tory government but won’t win themselves; meaning both the new parliament and the new government will be formally Remain.
>
> And it’s the ERG purists who will be to blame for putting us here.
>
> Deeply depressed tonight.
I, and many others, are absolutely delighted. Ya boo suckers!0 -
Despite some very good results, the Brexit Party is on about 32%, so they could drop to 28% or 29% as the night goes on.0
-
The Labour performance in Scotland is making the Tories look good. An almost unbelievable collapse. Clearly a lot of their supporters have gone SNP who look pretty nailed on for a 3rd seat.0
-
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132763881321971714<
++++
Labour source = Seamus Milne.
Open warfare now.0 -
-
-
Looks like Wales has nearly finished declaring. Labour in third place and only a cigarette paper separating them from the Lib Dems at that. Brexit topping every council area except Gwynedd, Ceredigion and Anglesey (all Plaid.)0
-
> @TheWhiteRabbit said:
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
>
> What have they voted for, if not the 36% or so in favour of No Deal?
>
> Lab+Con compromise deals 24%
>
> Revoke 30%
>
> Glad that's sorted
Yep. Still pretty split down the middle.0 -
SNP MEP pissed on BBC. Nose redder than Alex Ferguson’s socks.0
-
London looks like it will never forgive the Tories if we Brexit, they are dead there. But without Brexit they lose masses of support elsewhere.
Near terminal position.1 -
"Huge rock" is surely a typo.HYUFD said:0 -
SNP given their manic levels of dickheadery will use this as an argument for a 2nd referendum.0
-
> @kle4 said:
> > @Byronic said:
>
> >
>
> > Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
>
> >
>
> > Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
>
>
>
> --------
>
>
>
> The thing is that the likes of Flint are probably right. Given the trajectory of the polarisation of the country, if Labour try to become an explicit Remain party, they will sacrifice a lot of MPs, and will still struggle to be trusted by Remainers.
>
> There's only a handful of Labour MPs who are worried about the consequences of remaining, and not as many as say they are concerned about it either as they almost all refused to do anything about it. Some will need to be sacrificed to the overwhelming wish of the party.
>
> With the Tories about to split Labour can take such a body blow and stay on their feet, electorally.
Yes it seems very likely Labour will now adopt the remain and reform position. Leaver MPs have nowhere else to go - they can hardly join the Brexit Party. They will just have to suck it up.0 -
South Norfolk
Change 1421 3.51%
Conservative 4774 11.80%
English Dem 268 0.66%
Green 6547 16.19%
Labour 2305 5.70%
LibDem 9495 23.48%
Brexit 14288 35.33%
UKIP 1255 3.10%
Ind 91 0.23%
40444
Bunnco - Your Man [absolutely] on the Spot0 -
I will one day get bored of saying it, but with the public so polarised there has to be a compromise, both No Deal and Revoke would be unacceptable to a huge number of people. Soft Brexit/Norway/EFTA or the like really do look like the only viable options if we want to maximise public contentment.SouthamObserver said:Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
0 -
> @DavidL said:
> The Labour performance in Scotland is making the Tories look good. An almost unbelievable collapse. Clearly a lot of their supporters have gone SNP who look pretty nailed on for a 3rd seat.
Labour have been Ruth’s support act for many years now. The only problem is that Ruth is no longer selling out Murrayfield and struggling to get bums on seats in Kyle of Lochalsh village hall.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1132762166841565186?s=20
By far the best Tory result to date. Only 5.3% down.0 -
> @Casino_Royale said:
> SNP given their manic levels of dickheadery will use this as an argument for a 2nd referendum.
They use a burst water main in Carlisle as an Indy ref trigger. Best ignored.0 -
-
True, but as I watch the SNP on BBC now, the silver lining is that their ideas of an independent Scotland is basically dead (which I suspect they won't realise till tomorrow).RobinWiggs said:It pains me to say it as a Tory Leaver who stayed loyal on Thursday, but the irony of tonight is that Brexit is now likely not to be delivered despite Brexit Party topping the polls.
Labour are likely to complete the pivot now to full on Remain, meaning this parliament will not deliver an exit. The new Tory leader can not deliver a majority for any deal, and no deal will be blocked again. The only options are another referendum or a general election.
In a GE, Brexit Party will kill off a Tory government but won’t win themselves; meaning both the new parliament and the new government will be formally Remain.
And it’s the ERG purists who will be to blame for putting us here.
Deeply depressed tonight.0 -
> @TGOHF said:
> SNP MEP pissed on BBC. Nose redder than Alex Ferguson’s socks.
I disagree with him but he is coming over very well.0 -
> @anothernick said:
> > @kle4 said:
> > > @Byronic said:
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
> >
> >
> >
> > --------
> >
> >
> >
> > The thing is that the likes of Flint are probably right. Given the trajectory of the polarisation of the country, if Labour try to become an explicit Remain party, they will sacrifice a lot of MPs, and will still struggle to be trusted by Remainers.
> >
> > There's only a handful of Labour MPs who are worried about the consequences of remaining, and not as many as say they are concerned about it either as they almost all refused to do anything about it. Some will need to be sacrificed to the overwhelming wish of the party.
> >
> > With the Tories about to split Labour can take such a body blow and stay on their feet, electorally.
>
> Yes it seems very likely Labour will now adopt the remain and reform position. Leaver MPs have nowhere else to go - they can hardly join the Brexit Party. They will just have to suck it up.
Leave voters, on the other hand......0 -
-
0
-
> @Pulpstar said:
> Bradford, Luton, Leicester might be other bright spots for Labour.
>
And Birmingham:
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132763199290433538
Can't think why they're doing well in those places.0 -
Good God. The 1931 Naional Government won 554 seats out of 615, but the largest component (Cons) only won 470. I think there's never been a party with 500 seats out of 650.Ave_it said:Viewcode - on FPTP BXP would be looking at 500 seats+. My (regular) party CON would be looking at 0!
0 -
It's dead. Flint backed up her words and voted for it, but the Tory leadership candidates aren't even backing it now. This is no deal or remain country now.another_richard said:> @anothernick said:
> > @another_richard said:
> >
>
> So what alternative does she suggest?
Vote for the WA ?0 -
I'm not sure Humberside Labour voters fled to Brexit Party, unless they first fled to UKIP and the Conservatives some years ago.Scott_P said:0 -
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/1132764765619720192
Now 8 apparently.
Scottish Borders is interesting.0 -
Eastern region....0
-
SCons back down to their background radiation level of 16% they were at since 1992-to-20160
-
Here comes the Eastern Region0
-
> @StuartDickson said:
> > @DavidL said:
> > The Labour performance in Scotland is making the Tories look good. An almost unbelievable collapse. Clearly a lot of their supporters have gone SNP who look pretty nailed on for a 3rd seat.
>
> Labour have been Ruth’s support act for many years now. The only problem is that Ruth is no longer selling out Murrayfield and struggling to get bum on seats in Kyle of Lochalsh village hall.
Given the performance of TBP the Tory vote is pretty respectable. Outcome is going to be SNP3, TBP 1, Tory 1, Lib Dem 1. No Labour MEP from Scotland.0 -
> @_Anazina_ said:
> Emily Thornberry would stuff Boris in a General Election.
Yeah two extremely silver spooners. Thats representative of the masses.0 -
..0
-
Greens beat the Tories (and Labour) in the East of England!0
-
TheValiant said:0
-
Are you crowing about that pun?El_Capitano said:
"Huge rock" is surely a typo.HYUFD said:
As the East declares and the main parties are once again pounded like (to coin a phrase) dockside hookers. Conservatives and Labour behind the Greens. Utter humiliation.0 -
Am I mad or does the BBC website not have individual council results?0
-
Eastern region:
BrexitParty 604,715
LD 361,563
Con 163,830
Lab 139,490
Green 202,460
ChangeUK 58,274
UKIP 54,676
EngDem 10,217
Ind 3,230
Seats:
BrexitParty 4
LD 2
Green 1
Con 1
Elect: 4,407,975
Rejected: 9,589
Turnout: 36.48%0 -
Being representative of the masses is not a requirement for the job of PM.Y0kel said:> @_Anazina_ said:
> Emily Thornberry would stuff Boris in a General Election.
Yeah two extremely silver spooners. Thats representative of the masses.0 -
No. It's the whole Eastern Region (I made the same mistake too).IanB2 said:BBC wasting time showing the Chelmsford declaration of a result they have already shown and analysed
0 -
> @Casino_Royale said:
> SNP given their manic levels of dickheadery will use this as an argument for a 2nd referendum.
Remind me, what was Dave’s argument for a referendum? He wasn’t a dickhead, was he?0 -
Brexit Party first in Eastern region, LDs second, Greens third, Tories 4th, Labour 5th0
-
Wow0
-
0
-
> @TGOHF said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > SNP given their manic levels of dickheadery will use this as an argument for a 2nd referendum.
>
> They use a burst water main in Carlisle as an Indy ref trigger. Best ignored.
You okay, hun?0 -
Blame Ruth for making it an issue in this election. Where is she by the way?Casino_Royale said:SNP given their manic levels of dickheadery will use this as an argument for a 2nd referendum.
0 -
They don't. Does anyone know where to find it?Alistair said:Am I mad or does the BBC website not have individual council results?
0 -
Shame about the LDs missing out on the NE - feels like in a few places they will have done heroically well, but have faced just too much of an uphill battle.
Edit
Case inpoint?Black_Rook said:Looks like Wales has nearly finished declaring. Labour in third place and only a cigarette paper separating them from the Lib Dems at that.
0 -
The Tories have a seat!0
-
So the Tories that voted Leave in 2016 probably voted to destroy the Union and the Tory party.
Take a bow.0 -
3 Brexit Party MEPs and 2 LD and 1 Green and 1 Tory MEP elected from the East of England0
-
Macron’s bunch not doing well in France.0
-
Tories have one MEP. No wipeout.0
-
Good grief. The Tories just about win a seat in the East.
That is almost a surprise.0 -
0
-
Tories get an Eastern region MEP0
-
> @TheValiant said:
> It pains me to say it as a Tory Leaver who stayed loyal on Thursday, but the irony of tonight is that Brexit is now likely not to be delivered despite Brexit Party topping the polls.
>
> Labour are likely to complete the pivot now to full on Remain, meaning this parliament will not deliver an exit. The new Tory leader can not deliver a majority for any deal, and no deal will be blocked again. The only options are another referendum or a general election.
>
> In a GE, Brexit Party will kill off a Tory government but won’t win themselves; meaning both the new parliament and the new government will be formally Remain.
>
> And it’s the ERG purists who will be to blame for putting us here.
>
> Deeply depressed tonight.
>
> True, but as I watch the SNP on BBC now, the silver lining is that their ideas of an independent Scotland is basically dead (which I suspect they won't realise till tomorrow).<
++++
How and why? Genuinely curious.
Personally I think Sindependence is less likely now, but only because Brexit has been such a disaster. No one sane will happily vote for ANOTHER decade of political disentangling and endless arguments (and for a divorce which, given the age of the UK, would be even more tedious, costly and traumatic than Brexit).
But I certainly don't think the Sindy cause is dead. Why do you say that?-1 -
CON right back at on it in Eastern region!0
-
> @TheValiant said:
> Am I mad or does the BBC website not have individual council results?
>
> They don't. Does anyone know where to find it?
Britain elects Twitter.0 -
EAST region BXP 3 LD 2 Green 1 Con 10
-
Eastern Region result:
Change UK: 58,274
Conservatives: 163,830
English Democrats: 10,217
Greens: 202,460
Labour: 139,490
LDs: 361,563
Brexit: 604,715
Ukip: 54,676
Independent candidate: 3,230
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit Party
2. Lib Dems
3. Brexit Party
4. Greens
5. Brexit Party
6. Lib Dems
7. Conservatives
Two big parties: Brexit and LD, as expected
Greens do exceptionally well
One Tory survives
Labour wiped out
*ENDS*0 -
Appalling result for Labour in the East of England.0
-
> @Theuniondivvie said:
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > SNP given their manic levels of dickheadery will use this as an argument for a 2nd referendum.
> >
> > They use a burst water main in Carlisle as an Indy ref trigger. Best ignored.
>
> You okay, hun?
I’m enjoying the results immensely, tarrier.0 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> So the Tories that voted Leave in 2016 probably voted to destroy the Union and the Tory party.
>
> Take a bow.
Ta. We owe you one.0 -
-
I did suggest a week or so ago that the Lib Dems would be second, Despite the collapse of the Conservatives I think TBP will only be c. 30% overall, and the Lib Dems will be over 20%.0
-
Eastern
3 Brexit
2 LD
1 Green
1 Con
Labour lose its seat0 -
East of England decalred. There's a Conservative MEP!0
-
Con win an MEP - good result for the minor party.0
-
Brexit Party get 38% in perhaps their best region.
Suggest they may just slip below 30% overall to me.0 -
Daft Swedish public broadcaster SVT saying that the UK is leaving the EU.
I wonder when it’ll sink in...0 -
Don't get overexcited, I remember your 'the clueless wonders are in for a shock' comment the day before the Indyref.StuartDickson said:> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> So the Tories that voted Leave in 2016 probably voted to destroy the Union and the Tory party.
>
> Take a bow.
Ta. We owe you one.0 -
The Tory disaster in London cannot be ignored. There is no path to a westminster majority for them if they can’t win there.0
-
Laura K has a bit of cleavage going on tonight.0
-
If Tories are barely above 10% in east of england they must be below 10% overall surely, by quite a bit?0
-
0
-
Revoke and Remain one point behind No Deal in the East of England. The overall result could be very interesting.0
-
Thornberry' analysis isn't ageing well. That was Tory voters fleeing to the Liberal Democrats and Labour fleeing to Greens.0
-
> @StuartDickson said:
> Daft Swedish public broadcaster SVT saying that the UK is leaving the EU.
>
> I wonder when it’ll sink in...
Technically correct. The UK will cease to be a member when it is dissolved.0