politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two
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Viewcode - on FPTP BXP would be looking at 500 seats+. My (regular) party CON would be looking at 0!0
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Evening all
Results from Bromley:
https://www.bromley.gov.uk/press/article/1515/european_parliamentary_elections_2019
Brexit Party 1st, LDs second, Greens third, Conservatives fourth.
Lewisham:
https://lewisham.gov.uk/mayorandcouncil/elections/results/election-results-2019/european-election-2019-results/european-election-2019---lewisham-results
LDs first, Labour 2nd, Greens 3rd, Brexit Party 4th, CUK 5th, Conservatives 6th.0 -
> @kle4 said:
> Looks like Lab 15% Con 10% to me
>
> Psycologically the Tories really need to remain in double figures. It's a hounding either way, but these little things matter.
On 10% they are fighting for maybe 3 MEPs0 -
Labour are doing so badly in Scotland, and now losing to Plaid in Wales, that perhaps they should give up and become an English party.0
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Techncially some of the better results for the Tories so far are coming from Scotland - double figures in a number of those at least!0
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> @viewcode said:
> Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the opposition.
Yes. Scotland and NI.0 -
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I know Theresa May hates me, so just watch her ensure the Tories poll 10.01%.0
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Leavers are pissed. Remainers are pissed.
My guess is that - once all the votes are in - the country as a whole is still pretty much divided 50/50 between Leave and Remain
And that tomorrow pretty much everyone will go round saying that this means we absolutely must go for a No Deal Brexit. Er .... does it?
Anyway, am pleased for the Lib Dems and for the Greens.
Where do we get actual results for other European countries?0 -
Helen Whateley has drawn the short (nonplastic) straw -she was on for local elections too!0
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Bit early for that - plenty of aftermath to consider - and FPTP to consider.hamiltonace said:As I suggested 30 mins ago. This is the end of Hard Brexit. There is no political mandate for it in the country.
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It shouldn't exist as a region for EU election, group it with a neighbouring one to offer more seats and make it more proportional.eristdoof said:> @Paristonda said:
> Lib Dems getting 17% but no seat in the NE, quite a threshold for a "PR" system
why should 17% get a seat when there are only 3 seats in the NE?0 -
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Brex: 50.1% (+50.1)
Con: 13.3% (-19.8)
LDem: 12.8% (+10.2)
Grn: 8.6% (+5.3)
Lab: 5.8% (-7.6)
UKIP: 5.5% (-35.2)
South Staffs!!!0 -
> @Artist said:
> Thornberry isn't making moves, they'll get Barry Gardner on later saying Labour are a Brexit Party. It's totally deliberate from Labour.<
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Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.0 -
> @kle4 said:
> Techncially some of the better results for the Tories so far are coming from Scotland - double figures in a number of those at least!
So, Ruth will be FM on 11% of the vote? Titter.0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1132761949274558464
She wants the top job for herself - that much seems clear tonight0 -
The UKIP vote is significantly down. What are you on about?murali_s said:While fascism is on the wane in Europe, it's rearing its ugly head here in the UK.
The extreme right are on the march here in the UK. Be afraid, be very afraid!
(No, like many on here, I don't think BXP are fascist. Right wing certainly, but not far right, hard right or any other label you'd want to give them.)0 -
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Everyone is desperate to claim victory here, but the truth is the country is divided with compromise further away than ever. We’re all losers.0
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Labour just ahead of LibDem in Harrow
25 to 21%0 -
> @Paristonda said:
> > @Paristonda said:
>
> > Lib Dems getting 17% but no seat in the NE, quite a threshold for a "PR" system
>
>
>
> why should 17% get a seat when there are only 3 seats in the NE?
>
> It shouldn't exist as a region for EU election, group it with a neighbouring one to offer more seats and make it more proportional.
They should have kept the old Northern region which also included Cumbria.0 -
What proportion of districts is TBP going to top the poll ?
80% ?
Can you imagine what Farage is going to say ?0 -
Peterborough declaring...0
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This a thousands times over. Things are going to get worse even if they do eventually get better (and that is no guarantee).Jonathan said:Everyone is desperate to claim victory here, but the truth is the country is divided with compromise further away than ever. We’re all losers.
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Looks like Pro EU Pro Indy voters have decided not to dabble with Non SNP votes0
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Chuka desperately spinning on Sky, its all about total of remain party votes.0
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Yes, but she may end up ruling the rubble...oxfordsimon said:
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Chuka on Sky News now - Farage will be raising a glass to him for that last NE seat.0
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> @StuartDickson said:
> Andrea
>
> That’s not Brian Monteith the former Tory MSP and Scotsman columnist?
It is.
https://twitter.com/glivett/status/11323242163621642240 -
Is there anywhere you can get the detailed local results as they come in? BBC only reporting vote tallies and MEPs elected (at least all I can find).0
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You "May" be right!TheScreamingEagles said:I know Theresa May hates me, so just watch her ensure the Tories poll 10.01%.
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> @AndyJS said:
> > @Paristonda said:
> > > @Paristonda said:
> >
> > > Lib Dems getting 17% but no seat in the NE, quite a threshold for a "PR" system
> >
> >
> >
> > why should 17% get a seat when there are only 3 seats in the NE?
> >
> > It shouldn't exist as a region for EU election, group it with a neighbouring one to offer more seats and make it more proportional.
>
> They should have kept the old Northern region which also included Cumbria.
+10 -
Labour in 4th place in Scotland.0
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TBP topping in one party state Sandwell. Forgive me can’t resist, how’s that remain and reform thingy going Watson?0
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Excellent news in The Netherlands.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/11327600189510000650 -
> @IanB2 said:
> Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the oposition.
>
> Third in Redbridge as above
________
In theory, especially with an unwritten constitution, FPTP allows a PM to win a massive majority on 33% of the votes and 'go rogue'.
Hence NZ adopted PR ~20 years ago.
The UK is mad not to do likewise.0 -
If we don't leave the EU, the Tories may well face extinction at the next GE.0
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Scotland in so far
SNP 39%
Brexit Party 16%
Tories 12%
LDs 12%
Labour 11%0 -
Labour will get a kicking in Scotland in the vote change because the 2014 Euros were the last elections held before the ScotRef that changed everything.0
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The Lib Dems rise seems fairly modest in non-met Labour areas. They're not yet breaking through in Labour heartlands.0
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London Labour MPs are going to campaign heavily for them to swing to remain, but the Northern MPs are NOT happy...
https://twitter.com/lisanandy/status/11327630979392880740 -
BBC has Tories on 8% so far0
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> @murali_s said:
> While fascism is on the wane in Europe, it's rearing its ugly head here in the UK.
>
> The extreme right are on the march here in the UK. Be afraid, be very afraid!
> <
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Except that Tommy Robinson has been massively defeated. UKIP are nowhere. Fascism (if it ever existed) had been told to sod off.
The BXP are populists with one issue. That's it. They are not the Gestapo. Painting them as such is hysterical nonsense and plays into their narrative. Stop it.1 -
Scots look conflicted. Unionists splitting across Tories and TBP may have just given Sturgeon a boost.0
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> @Byronic said:
>
> Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
>
> Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
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The thing is that the likes of Flint are probably right. Given the trajectory of the polarisation of the country, if Labour try to become an explicit Remain party, they will sacrifice a lot of MPs, and will still struggle to be trusted by Remainers.0 -
> @Sunil_Prasannan said:
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132758897431928834
>
>
>
>
>
> > @AndyJS said:
>
> > https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132758897431928834
>
>
>
>
>
> Redbridge. Home of Mike Gapes' huge personal vote...Change UK not even registering a score in many of these.
>
> Ilford North as well! My home patch.
I thought Redbridge might be one of the few places where Labour would win.0 -
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> @rural_voter said:
> > @IanB2 said:
> > Quick question. Has Brexit come less than first anywhere? Everybody's going "Oooh, the Libs/Greens are doing well and Con/Lab badly", but this level of success for Brexit is quite large. If this was FPTP they'd annihilate the oposition.
> >
> > Third in Redbridge as above
> ________
>
> In theory, especially with an unwritten constitution, FPTP allows a PM to win a massive majority on 33% of the votes and 'go rogue'.
>
> Hence NZ adopted PR ~20 years ago.
>
> The UK is mad not to do likewise.
NZ does not have PR. It has MMP0 -
Thank ypu @williamglenn , @Quincel and @DecrepitJohnL for your replies. Apols to anybody I have missed out.0
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> @Jonathan said:
> Everyone is desperate to claim victory here, but the truth is the country is divided with compromise further away than ever. We’re all losers.
If things go on like this for very much longer (and, in fact, we may already be past the point of no return) then the age of two party politics is dead.
Labour and the Tories are going to have to pick sides on Brexit, or fall down the chasm between them and never be seen again. And when the Tories ditch their Remainers and Labour ditch their Leavers, all those votes will become available to the other parties.
It's the main positive from this mess. The Tories are in total chaos, and Corbynite Labour is patently unfit to govern. They are narrow cliques that don't represent most of the people. They both need to be restrained.0 -
> @viewcode said:
> Current votes (BBC):
>
>
>
> Brexit 31%
>
> LD 20% (+12)
>
> Lab 17% (-13)
>
> Greens 12% (+4)
>
> Con 7% (-12)
>
> UKIP 4%
>
> CHUK 3%
>
> Amazing, BP+UKIP=LD+Green+CUK.
>
> It's almost like the country is split down the middle...
But it's split 35-35-30 ...0 -
Emily Thornberry would stuff Boris in a General Election.0
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> @MaxPB said:
> Current votes (BBC):
>
>
>
> Brexit 31%
>
> LD 20% (+12)
>
> Lab 17% (-13)
>
> Greens 12% (+4)
>
> Con 7% (-12)
>
> UKIP 4%
>
> CHUK 3%
>
> Amazing, BP+UKIP=LD+Green+CUK.
Most of the polls had the former well ahead of the latter.0 -
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> @hamiltonace said:
> As I suggested 30 mins ago. This is the end of Hard Brexit. There is no political mandate for it in the country.
Agreed. Hard Brexit is way short of being able to claim a majority based on tonight's figures. And if it's not going to be hard Brexit then the likelihood is that it will be no Brexit.1 -
> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> I know Theresa May hates me, so just watch her ensure the Tories poll 10.01%.
I know. Annoying, isn't it?0 -
Suprised by the lack of Green increase in Scotland0
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Harrow and Birmingham stay in the Labour column.0
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Spain
90% counted
Socialists 20 seats
People Party 12
Citizens 7
Podemos 5
Vox 3
AHORA REPÚBLICA 3
JUNTS 2
CEUS 10 -
Kingston:
https://www.kingston.gov.uk/news/article/897/2019_european_parliamentary_election_results
LDs first, Brexit Party second, Green third, Conservative fourth, Labour fifth0 -
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> @HYUFD said:
> Scotland in so far
>
> SNP 39%
> Brexit Party 16%
> Tories 12%
> LDs 12%
> Labour 11%
Much in line with the three full-sample Scottish Euro VI polls:
SNP 38% - 40%
Labour 14% - 20%
Brexit Party 10% - 16%
Conservatives 10% - 16%
Lib Dems 6% - 10%
Greens 3% - 7%
(European Parliament voting intention; Scottish full-sample opinion polls 2019)0 -
Well done, Theresa May. You have taken the life-force of the Conservative Party and used it resurrect both Nigel Farage and the Liberal Democrats. Dr. Frankenstein and the Re-animator are looking on in awe.....0
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Bradford, Luton, Leicester might be other bright spots for Labour.0
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> @TGOHF said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132762437839667200
Three weeks ago:
' The Conservatives have secured a majority on North East Lincolnshire Council for the first time in the local authority’s 23-year history. '
https://www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/conservatives-win-north-east-lincolnshire-28270690 -
There's only a handful of Labour MPs who are worried about the consequences of remaining, and not as many as say they are concerned about it either as they almost all refused to do anything about it. Some will need to be sacrificed to the overwhelming wish of the party.williamglenn said:> @Byronic said:
>
> Disagree. Look at her face. Like thunder. She knows she could lose her seat under Corbyn.
>
> Expect serious maneuvers now. The Lexiteers will be cornered, and cowed.
--------
The thing is that the likes of Flint are probably right. Given the trajectory of the polarisation of the country, if Labour try to become an explicit Remain party, they will sacrifice a lot of MPs, and will still struggle to be trusted by Remainers.
With the Tories about to split Labour can take such a body blow and stay on their feet, electorally.0 -
> @another_richard said:
> https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1132760402264231936
So what alternative does she suggest?0 -
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Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.1
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It pains me to say it as a Tory Leaver who stayed loyal on Thursday, but the irony of tonight is that Brexit is now likely not to be delivered despite Brexit Party topping the polls.
Labour are likely to complete the pivot now to full on Remain, meaning this parliament will not deliver an exit. The new Tory leader can not deliver a majority for any deal, and no deal will be blocked again. The only options are another referendum or a general election.
In a GE, Brexit Party will kill off a Tory government but won’t win themselves; meaning both the new parliament and the new government will be formally Remain.
And it’s the ERG purists who will be to blame for putting us here.
Deeply depressed tonight.2 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
> Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
By that logic they are rejecting remain also.0 -
I guess Labour "won" Tottenham if they are 1 point behind borough wide as Hornsey should be LibDems
> @Black_Rook said:
> https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1132764020170268678
>
> David Lammy will be thrilled...0 -
You wonder why they didn't start counting early enough to just announce the result at 10pm0
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> @SouthamObserver said:
> Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
Possibly. But is there a majority FOR anything else?0 -
> @anothernick said:
> > @another_richard said:
> > https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/1132760402264231936
>
> So what alternative does she suggest?
Flint has consistently supported the agreed deal.0 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
> Once again, the UK’s voters are rejecting a No Deal Brexit.
What have they voted for, if not the 36% or so in favour of No Deal?
Lab+Con compromise deals 24%
Revoke 30%
Glad that's sorted0 -
The Conservative party decamped en masse to Mr Farage. Well done Sir!.
It has to be out deal or no deal by end of October come what may.
Had lunch at my sister's today. She's not political but wrote a letter to Mrs May, thanking her for her efforts and expressing solidarity with her for all she has been put through. etc. Mrs CC holds similar views.0
This discussion has been closed.