politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Food for thought for would-be defectors to the Brexit Party

https://twitter.com/DamianGreen/status/1130881241086083072?s=20

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1130880866253758465?s=20

Stereotomy said:

TOPPING said:

Stereotomy said:

Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.

Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.

Yes I think you're right - it was the key question that Peston asked and by not answering it (another "legal" obligation, say) she will have given Lab an out.

What has changed, of course is the insurance required by Lab that a successor won't throw out whatever deal has been negotiated by May because parliament will be given a say over three key elements - nature of customs union (ie vote on a temporary one until the next GE so that if Lab wins they can convert it into a permanent one); shape, direction and content of the negotiations for the future agreement; and, of course, 2nd ref.

Which brings us back to Peston's question.

Honestly I don't really understand this aspect. Parliament can't bind future governments, I thought. Does that change just because the bill parliament passes says "No actually in this case we really are binding you"? Is there any precedent or statement from (presumably) the speaker saying that this could be done?

As @rpjs has pointed out it is Parliament binding the current government!

JRM highlighted on Welsh news tonight actively campaigning for the Welsh conservative candidates

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1130880866253758465?s=20

Except eventually there will be a GE. If we are not out, then God knows what will happen. But Labour winning isn't the likeliest.

Another parliament incapable of reaching a consensus is likeliest.

> @TGOHF said:
> Put no funds for the EU in a finance bill - make it a vote of confidence.
>
> Either a sharp exit from EU or a single issue GE is coming. Choose your candidates wisely...

How does one make it a vote of confidence?

> @CarlottaVance said:
> https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1130880866253758465
>
>
>
> Except eventually there will be a GE. If we are not out, then God knows what will happen. But Labour winning isn't the likeliest.
>
> Another parliament incapable of reaching a consensus is likeliest.

Quite likely. However, within that outcome the composition of the next parliament could still be materially different from the present if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1130876736638468096

Mrs May proving she was always a remainer. Deception. Killed the party too.

Comres latest poll very good for the BP on 32% and although Labour is down they’re still on 22%.

My issue with this poll is it was conducted on 13 to 17 May .

It’s looking pretty old already.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Slackbladder said:

We're not going to leave are we...

We are as a No Dealer succeeds Theresa May and says No Deal will be easy.

It'll be such a shit show that we'll have Rejoined by 2030.

Nawh. We're not leaving. I've been eating my Brexit box supplies these last few weeks and don't feel minded to start stockpiling again in August.

Whilst it might be said asking to vote again is EU style, it's better to say that countries in the EU have form at voting again.
As we're still an EU country at the moment, I reckon its 2nd referendum at some point down the line, with Remain on the ballot paper. Just to be fair, they're given a 33 million vote headstart. It's the only way to be sure.

Cyclefree said:

Stereotomy said:

Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.



Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.

What was Peston’s question, please.

Parliament gets a vote on 2nd Ref etc but will the govt honour the vote result?

> @williamglenn said:
> > @Morris_Dancer said:
> > Mr. Glenn, the problem is who 'we' is.
> >
> > The 'we' you refer to was Blair specifically, and the political class generally, both of which are far more pro-EU than the populace, and were also content to use the EU as a scapegoat. It's not entirely dissimilar to the approach the Lib Dems took the Coalition.
> >
> --------------
>
> The Tory party voted unanimously in Parliament for EU expansion, and it was arguably the culmination of the most successful pieces of post-war foreign policy from a Conservative government that helped bring the Cold War to a peaceful conclusion.

And prevented deeper EU integration.

Peter_the_Punter said:

It's uncomfortable to watch - an Impossible Woman in an Impossible Position.

Some people pay good money for that sort of thing. Allegedly.

Anyone who remembers Ronnie Scotts on Greek St when Ronnie was alive will remember how he started his set with a few jokes. The jokes never changed. Maybe he didn't expect his clients to come back? With his gravelly voice and his mouth touching the mike he'd start "If Ty-phoo but the tea in BriTain who put the cunt in Scunthorpe" He'd then insult Scunthorpe until he started playing. Why he picked on Scunthorpe was a mystery.

I couldn't help wonder if he'd lived whether today he might have felt vindicated. This is a place which is about to lose four thousand jobs directly and up to 20,000 secondary jobs as their steel mill closes as a result of Brexit which the town voted for by over 63%.

> @Peter_the_Punter said:
> It's uncomfortable to watch - an Impossible Woman in an Impossible Position.

her own fault. Could have left on 29th March. Useless woman

TOPPING said:

Cyclefree said:

Stereotomy said:

Well-written, well-delivered speech from May, but on substance not much has really changed that would get it passed. Brexiteers have more reason to vote against it, in order to block another referendum or a CU compromise, Labour didn't get the CU option they wanted.



Also bizarre that she refused to answer Peston's question, surely that'll totally undermine her strategy by sowing paranoia among MPs. And extremely negligent that no reporter bothered to ask what the options on the confirmatory referendum would be.

What was Peston’s question, please.

Parliament gets a vote on 2nd Ref etc but will the govt honour the vote result?

Thank you.

DoubleD said:

Brexit Party will be a player at the next GE.

True, but the part is unclear.

Do they stand Nationwide to really change politics, or do they a sleazy deal to stitch up the voters?

Brexit Date - Not before 2022 - just matched at 3.05 - lowest EVER price (excluding two tiny rogue trades).

Starting to look as if it's literally going to be impossible for anyone to actually get it through - irrespective of the terms.

> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1130869233447911425


Not a new observation of course, but it seems to be tiling in favour of the no-dealers now. The Farage party wins the Euros, Tories panic and elect a no-dealer, end of the line.

Congrats, ultra-remainers, you went from a deal you could have stomached, to the absolute worst case.

Just popping in to say that I would support this WAB if I was an MP.

It’s a route to Brexit, but it offers a fair and decent set of compromises to Remainer concerns.

Sadly I seem to be in rather small company with Mrs May herself and, er, Liam Fox.

My contempt for those who won’t vote for it because they see a chance to wreck the government (this applies to both ERGers and the Labour Party) is unlimited.

> @nico67 said:
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> >
> > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
> >
> >
> >
> > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
> >
> >
> >
> > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
> >
> > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
> >
> > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
> >
> > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
> >
> > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
>
> Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,

It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Well done to everyone who backed Tories sub 10

Greatest tipster of all time award for whoever tipped that.

I have Tories at 9 in Rentoul's sweepstake.

> @TheScreamingEagles said:
> Well done to everyone who backed Tories sub 10
>
> Greatest tipster of all time award for whoever tipped that.

Shall I tell the people who it was, TSE, or would you like to maintain your usual modesty?

> @rpjs said:
>
> It's OK, we'll just pass a law to repeal the Statute of Westminster and we'll have an instant imperial preference market to trade with.
-------

If they kick up a fuss we'll just tell them they ought to know that no British parliament can bind its successor.

It comes to something when the hapless May is the most grown up individual in her party.

Peter_the_Punter said:

> @TheScreamingEagles said:

> Well done to everyone who backed Tories sub 10

>

> Greatest tipster of all time award for whoever tipped that.



Shall I tell the people who it was, TSE, or would you like to maintain your usual modesty?

We should probably be thinking about whether they can go sub-5 at this rate.

> @TGOHF said:
> https://twitter.com/thequentinletts/status/1130886361622274048

What a pile of drivel. I doubt she believes it for a start, but seriously, I'm supposed to be appalled at the 'entitlement' of someone saying they love their job as PM? Especially with the most likely successor someone who is so entitled his outriders moan about how dare he be kept out of a leadership contest under the rules, and they must be changes to accomodate him (even if not by name, we know who is meant).

European Parliament voting intention:

BREX: 32% (+1)
LAB: 22% (-1)
LDEM: 14% (-2)
CON: 12% (+3)
GRN: 7% (-2)
CHUK: 5% (+1)
UKIP 3% (+1)

via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May

Leave 69%
2nd Ref. 19%
Revoke 5%

LOL, Kipper PPB perfectly timed.

Well I'm glad I describe myself as working class.

You could call it the Eton syndrome. Or, as the poet Matthew Arnold put it, “that buoyant ease in holding up one’s head, speaking out what is in one’s mind, and flinging off all sheepishness and awkwardness”.

Scientists have found that the higher someone rates their social class, the more likely they are to overestimate their talents. They also found evidence, perhaps relevant to Westminster, that this overconfidence can promote people beyond their competence.

Researchers measured the extent to which 150,000 people from different social classes overrated their performance in a cognitive test. They were all small business owners in Mexico applying for loans. They had to give details about their income and background and indicate their perceived social class on an image of a ladder “representing where people stand in your country”. After a test of memory and intelligence, the psychologists asked a final question — how did the applicant think they did, compared with other people?

The findings were clear: the higher someone perceived their social class to be, the more likely they were to unjustly inflate their relative performance.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-competence-is-no-match-for-confidence-5tvrhfcr2

> @bigjohnowls said:
> European Parliament voting intention:
>
> BREX: 32% (+1)
> LAB: 22% (-1)
> LDEM: 14% (-2)
> CON: 12% (+3)
> GRN: 7% (-2)
> CHUK: 5% (+1)
> UKIP 3% (+1)
>
> via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May
>
> Leave 69%
> 2nd Ref. 19%
> Revoke 5%

Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though.

Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed.

bigjohnowls said:

European Parliament voting intention:



BREX: 32% (+1)

LAB: 22% (-1)

LDEM: 14% (-2)

CON: 12% (+3)

GRN: 7% (-2)

CHUK: 5% (+1)

UKIP 3% (+1)

Wouldn't be surprised if LibDems finish 4th now tbh.

UKIP and the Chukka party seem dead also, which should simplify polling for the next general at least.

Finally received another election leaflet, this time from UKIP. So that's Brexit and UKIP, and nobody else.

TGOHF said:

Stereotomy said:

> @TGOHF said:

> Put no funds for the EU in a finance bill - make it a vote of confidence.

>

> Either a sharp exit from EU or a single issue GE is coming. Choose your candidates wisely...



How does one make it a vote of confidence?

A budget - confidence and supply.

The EU can keep us in for free if it likes.

Gotta get inventive..

You deserve a medal for spouting utter drivel with such unwavering confidence.

> @nico67 said:
> > @TGOHF said:
> > > @TGOHF said:
> >
> > > The tories are going to get destroyed on Thursday . She has openly stuck two fingers up to 17.4 million people . The electorate will not forgive them for this
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Next leader has to disavow May, Hammond and the other losers who have made this shit soup.
> >
> >
> >
> > And then what. The parliamentary maths do not change.
> >
> >
> >
> > If this fails as is likely I expect Brexit will not happen
> >
> > If it doesn’t happen before the GE it will afterwards. When the Con party will be destroyed.
> >
> > Next Con PM has to do Brexit - if that means getting thrown out for stopping payments then that is what will be required.
> >
> > What do you think happens to a country which refuses to pay the amounts it legally owes? Especially a country which is having to borrow money every single day from foreigners who have to trust that country to pay them back?
> >
> > No need not to pay agreed sums just tell the EU we will extend on free membership only - take it or leave it.
>
> Lmao ! You should take up comedy . If the UK doesn’t pay its obligations then the EU will not do any deals . And you are aware the trade agreements the EU has with Canada and Japan have clauses . Those countries won’t do a deal then with the UK . Are you intent on turning the country into a pariah on the international stage . You need to face reality . The world doesn’t revolve around the UK ,

This is absolutely right. Leaving the EU without a deal is not a great result but I believe it is better than remaining. That of course is a personal view many disagree with. But refusing to pay our legal obligations is another matter entirely and not a step any government should ever countenance.

That does not necessarily mean paying what the EU say we owe as it is already generally accepted that at least part of that is not legally binding and is just the EU trying it on. But monies we have already agreed to pay such as the commitments to the end of the current budgetary cycle should be paid without question.

kle4 said:

> @Gardenwalker said:

> Let’s assume the WAB fails and Boris is duly anointed.

>

> He’s gonna have to find a way to back-peddle on Brexit or he’ll go down in history as the biggest lame duck since, er, Theresa May.



He will probably go the no deal route, then ask for GE hoping his legendary skills (in his mind) will see the Tories somehow get a majority for no deal, and who gives a crap if no deal is bad for the country (I suspect he thinks that, even if Baker and the true believers do not). He probably won't get it and Brexit will eb cancelled eventually.



Ever since the Brexit Party came on the scene there was only one option for the next Tory leader, and that was no deal support.

Yes. The Brexit Party has toxified any further negotiations with the EU as far as the Tories are concerned; for them No Deal is now the only game in town. I suspect Boris will just hope that a combination of his buccaneering rhetoric, Corbyn and a hefty slice of luck will see him through.

> @kle4 said:
> > @bigjohnowls said:
> > European Parliament voting intention:
> >
> > BREX: 32% (+1)
> > LAB: 22% (-1)
> > LDEM: 14% (-2)
> > CON: 12% (+3)
> > GRN: 7% (-2)
> > CHUK: 5% (+1)
> > UKIP 3% (+1)
> >
> > via @ComRes, 13 - 17 May
> >
> > Leave 69%
> > 2nd Ref. 19%
> > Revoke 5%
>
> Tories still trying to hold onto third. Suspect that will go down after today though.
>
> Although interestingly I did bump into a known Tory of my acquaintance who is unsure they will vote for the party, but is not intending to vote Brexit or UKIP, as they say the voted leave (with apprehension) and are terrified of no deal. If they cannot even hold onto the soft leaver/remainer vote they are really screwed.

I think Lab will be just less than 20% (19.6%). Tories about 15%

Ishmael_Z said:

> @Cyclefree said:



> One: this isn't a prosecution. It's an inquiry. Selective prosecution is not illegal and does not amount to discrimination. Prosecutors and regulatory authorities make decisions all the time about when to take action and when not and, provided the reasons for doing so are in compliance with the law and relevant guidelines and not arbitrary or taken for the wrong reasons, it is ok for an authority to go after X and not Y.

>

> Two: discrimination for unjustified reasons is wrong. Making an inquiry of a newly established party to ensure that they are complying with the rules is not disproportionate because a new party with little or no experience may - and often is - more likely to make mistakes than an established one. It may also be necessary to go after established parties because they can be complacent and also make mistakes.

>

> Three: deciding that your priority is X rather than Y, provided that assessment is made on reasonable justifiable grounds rather than arbitrary ones, is absolutely consistent with applying the law equally to all. Your example about black people complaining about the stop and search laws is consistent with this because in those cases there was no reasonable justifiable grounds for stopping them other than prejudice.

>

>

> "Why don't you pick on him and not just me" is the cry of the child in the playground not of grown ups.



Many things which get said in the playground, like "he started it" or "she got more than me" or "wasn't me" embody a perfectly correct understanding of principles of justice which also apply as between adults. So does "Why don't you pick on him and not just me."



You seem unduly keen to give the authorities a free ride because they are the authorities. Disproportionately investigating a party because you dislike its politics, *if* that is what is happening, is patently an abuse of public office.

No. I am not giving the authorities a free ride. There is no evidence I have seen that the EC is abusing its powers. If there is I will be the first to criticise them.

I am criticising a political party which seems to think it ought to be exempt from scrutiny. And I am criticising their reaction to such scrutiny. Were I advising a financial entity which had just been set up (as I have done in the past) I would tell them to expect early scrutiny and would also advise them that making a public fuss in such a babyish way would be inadvisable. But behaving in a babyish way when challenged seems to be a bit of a Farage speciality.

Anyway they seem to have got a clean bill of health and the EC can now look at other parties and groupings.

kle4 said:

> @TGOHF said:

>

https://twitter.com/thequentinletts/status/1130886361622274048

What a pile of drivel. I doubt she believes it for a start, but seriously, I'm supposed to be appalled at the 'entitlement' of someone saying they love their job as PM? Especially with the most likely successor someone who is so entitled his outriders moan about how dare he be kept out of a leadership contest under the rules, and they must be changes to accomodate him (even if not by name, we know who is meant).

Indeed, well said. I met the weasel Letts once - he really is annoying as he looks.

I am shocked.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1130825147290726400

> @Scott_P said:
> if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.
>
> The Brexit Party will smash the cozy Westminster consensus and reshape politics!
>
> How?
>
> By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG...
>
> Ummmmmm

> @Scott_P said:
> if the Brexit Party stood candidates against Conservative MPs who voted for May's final WAB while letting any sitting Conservative MP who voted against the WAB have a free run. There might also be a few more deselections in the offing.
>
> The Brexit Party will smash the cozy Westminster consensus and reshape politics!
>
> How?
>
> By stitching up the election in a deal with the ERG...
>
> Ummmmmm

Not ummmmmm

The decision on where the Brexit Party stands in a GE is down to them (or even just Farage) and they can judge where based on the actions to date of Conservative MPs. To alter the balance of Conservative MPs between Leavers and Remainers in a future parliament there is no need for them to do a deal with anybody.

kle4 said:

Finally received another election leaflet, this time from UKIP. So that's Brexit and UKIP, and nobody else.

Well you're a Leaver so you'd say that's effective targeting.

> @ah009 said:
> > @TOPPING said:
> > What a weight lifted off her shoulders, her body language has changed. That's what happens when you realise you are powerless and it is parliament which will decide Brexit, 2nd referendum and all.
>
> Like when at school you had some big project or homework to do, and you left it too long and started it at 11pm the night before. Then after a couple of hours' work you realised you were doomed and a strange euphoria came over you. You fate was sealed but there was almost a sense of relief.
>
> Or was that just me?


Not just you!

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am shocked.

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1130825147290726400

The Ritz? My enduring image of Nigel is of him on a wooden pub bench in a beer garden with a ciggy in one hand and a pint in the other. Was I misled?

Stewart Jackson: Philip Hammond is determined to assassinate Brexit

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/05/21/philip-hammond-determined-assassinate-brexit-reaches-climax/