Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
Same with HoL.
He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
This is it now. This country is in a fight for its political life if it wants to remain a liberal democracy, governed by the rule of law and a free press.
I think Leadsom is the only one who can mend the party and have a stab at mending the country. When she's elected, she can set out a timetable and framework for leaving - leaving with a renegotiated withdrawal agreement, or failing that, a managed no deal scenario.
I think Cersei is the only one who can mend the 7 kingdoms.
She can set out a timetable and framework for tyranny, or failing that, a managed Dragon scenario...
> @GIN1138 said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal. > > > > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 % > > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10% > > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40% > > > > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not? > > What about Boris calls an autumn election and we finish up with a Con/Brexit Party coalition?
Farage was threatening to campaign in Boris' seat last month, how long/stable would their love in be? How many of the Tory party would split off? Most of the cabinet would go rather than be the Farage party. I doubt that combination would do any better than the Tories have done alone in recent elections. Possibly they can become the largest grouping but there is no reason to expect them to have a majority.
> @Cyclefree said: > > @Gallowgate said: > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > Same with HoL. > > > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
I'm genuinely interested to see where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
I see Farage is in full-on Enabling Act territory. Anything, or anyone, who might disagree with him has to be done away with. FPTP could make him Prime Minister with less than 30% of the vote.
> How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal.
>
> No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 %
> Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10%
> No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
>
> Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
What about Boris calls an autumn election and we finish up with a Con/Brexit Party coalition?
Possible but very unlikely given FPTP.
Hard leaver votes will be split between Con and BP and it won't help either of them that much.
Remainer and soft leaver votes much more likely to be split regionally imo: SNP in Scotland, PC in Wales, LD in the South West, Labour (since they are set against No Deal) most of the rest of England.
> @Cicero said: > > @nico67 said: > > Cicero , regarding London was that just a London poll or just data from a national poll. > > > > I hope you’re right , I’d love to see the Lib Dems do well. > > > > London, but it's apparently a private poll.
Ok , thanks . Can I just ask one more question when will the poll be coming out ?
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
>
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
>
>
> Same with HoL.
>
>
> He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
> Same with HoL.
I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
I assume at some later point we will hear a lot more about plans for direct democracy via the internet and people's votes and so on.
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
>
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
>
>
> Same with HoL.
>
>
> He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
Dark times.
Given that they want to vote themselves out of existence, a manifesto would seem redundant.
> @Cyclefree said: > G. He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further. > > > > There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side. > > The 2014 EU establishment was very much the old federalist style grouping. The 2019 version is likely to be more abrasive, polarised and have a bigger group of members pushing a eurosceptic message. > > I think there are probably a sizeable number of UK remainers who voted that way out of fear, rather than affection for the EU. > > There is little advocacy and seems to be very little appetite for a Macron/Verhofstadt style vision, so if we are in their parliament, we are probably best represented by those who do not want further expansion or integration and who will firmly hold the line as a bare minimum. > > I suspect half hearted but fearful remainers probably add at least 20% to the 50% who are Leavers and that real fondness for the EU is very much a minority pastime. > > > > I see that we’ve moved on from “German carmakers will save us” to “European populists will save us”. > > Well, firstly - the deal on the table that parliament keeps saying no to is 100% free trade with no freedom of movement. These 'freedoms' were supposed to be indivisible. Clearly they are, when they want the trade. > > As for european politics; https://europeelects.eu/2019/05/21/a-right-wing-surge-a-glimpse-into-the-new-eu-parliament/ > > It looks to me like there is a grouping running into hundreds who are going to be elected that have an anti-EU axe to grind about either austerity, integration or immigration. > > > > And why do you think that would make them or the Commission more likely to help the British? You labour under the misapprehension that we are more important to the EU than in fact we are. None of these groups are in favour of exiting the EU. Indeed, some of them have expressly changed their stance on exit precisely because of the mess they have seen in Britain. They may wish to change the EU but we are being deluded in thinking that means they will change it to suit a departing member. > > And the immigration these groups are concerned about is Muslim immigration into Europe not FoM within it. Some of these populists have already been in power - Salvini, for instance, and there is zero evidence that this has made any difference at all to the Commission’s stance or, indeed, Italy’s.
Actually, I think the British voting public may well rather like a less integrationist, islamophobic, new Euro Parliament, though I expect the Greens and Left Populists to also do well across the continent. Ironically as we leave it is likely the EU will be more to our taste.
> @Benpointer said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > > > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > > > > > > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > > > > > > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > > > > > > > > > Same with HoL. > > > > > > > > > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”. > > > > OK but they'll have to be replaced with something? > > > > We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections? > > > > We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber? > > > > I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way. > > Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power. > > Dark times.
LOL - the absence of a manifesto = dark times. Most people vote without any reference at all to a manifesto. Indeed, most probably don't vote for any particular policy. It has more to do with feelings and identity. For those who'll vote for Farage, they don't need a manifesto.
> @ralphmalph said: > > @noneoftheabove said: > > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal. > > > > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 % > > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10% > > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40% > > > > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not? > > No dealers, as a transition period, believe it is the quickest way to get an FTA and bilaterals with the EU (and yes I fully understand that their are other views). > So the no dealers believe that as the election comes ever closer the Tory party will move towards this position to be competitive at the next GE.
I can easily see it becoming the position of the Tory party (well their leader, neither Tory or Labour can sustain a single policy across their coalitions of MPs). I am baffled as to how they think they can get the UK to no deal?
A reality check, the Tories are polling 10% in Euros and 20% in GE. All majorities in the last 30 years have been won by politicians in the political centre. Why are they going to get a majority big enough to force through no deal against the wishes of at least half the existing Tory MPs? (Probably more in private).
> @Benpointer said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > > > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > > > > > > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > > > > > > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > > > > > > > > > Same with HoL. > > > > > > > > > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”. > > > > OK but they'll have to be replaced with something? > > > > We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections? > > > > We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber? > > > > I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way. > > Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power. > > Dark times.
Whilst I agree that getting rid of the Electoral Commission is a terrible idea and sends all the wrong messages, getting rid of manifestos seems an eminently sensible idea given they are just a glossy way to lie to the electorate.
Manifesto pledges have been shown time and time again to be meaningless - all the more so if we are moving into an era of more coalition governments. Anyone who believes anything written in a manifesto these days is clearly a fool.
> @Scott_P said: > I think Leadsom is the only one who can mend the party and have a stab at mending the country. When she's elected, she can set out a timetable and framework for leaving - leaving with a renegotiated withdrawal agreement, or failing that, a managed no deal scenario. > > I think Cersei is the only one who can mend the 7 kingdoms. > > She can set out a timetable and framework for tyranny, or failing that, a managed Dragon scenario...
She's already dead under the rubble of the impregnable fortress.
> No. I am not giving the authorities a free ride. There is no evidence I have seen that the EC is abusing its powers. If there is I will be the first to criticise them.
>
> I am criticising a political party which seems to think it ought to be exempt from scrutiny. And I am criticising their reaction to such scrutiny. Were I advising a financial entity which had just been set up (as I have done in the past) I would tell them to expect early scrutiny and would also advise them that making a public fuss in such a babyish way would be inadvisable. But behaving in a babyish way when challenged seems to be a bit of a Farage speciality.
>
> Anyway they seem to have got a clean bill of health and the EC can now look at other parties and groupings.
Well, yes, I have advised recently-set-up financial entities too. I tend to keep it to myself, as I'd hate to give the impression of appealing to my own authority.
This "it's babyish" attack line is itself infantile. Say for example you have a defendant saying he has a defence of alibi. Is the more adult response "so tell us where you say you were and what the evidence for your claim is", or "LOL, you sound like a small child saying I wasn't there, miss, I was in the toilets'"? *If Farage* has received a disproportionate amount of attention from the authorities (and he is quite a good judge, given that he can compare what Ukip used to get with what he gets now) then he has a proper, serious and probably actionable grievance, infantile claims of infantility notwithstanding.
An alibi is relevant evidence. Why is Farage’s complaint relevant?
What actionable grievance do you think a recently set up party can have against its regulator visiting it and giving it a clean bill of health?
(BTW I mentioned my experience so that readers could know that it was based on some experience of entities under investigation dealing with authorities dealing rather than simply made up. It is for others to assess whether what I say is of value. I am no more - and probably less - of an authority than many others on this forum, plenty of whom have tremendous knowledge and experience, one of the reasons it is such an interesting place to debate matters.)
Anyway time to go off and listen to Sumption’s Reith Lectures. Night all.
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
>
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
>
>
> Same with HoL.
>
>
> He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
Dark times.
Given that they want to vote themselves out of existence, a manifesto would seem redundant.
You think? Dream on...
Farage and Banks won't be walking quietly off into the sunset if they achieved a No Deal Brexit... For a start they would be blaming the deepstate metropolitan establishment elite for all the woes No Deal Brexit brings.
Whilst I agree that getting rid of the Electoral Commission is a terrible idea and sends all the wrong messages, getting rid of manifestos seems an eminently sensible idea given they are just a glossy way to lie to the electorate.
Manifesto pledges have been shown time and time again to be meaningless - all the more so if we are moving into an era of more coalition governments. Anyone who believes anything written in a manifesto these days is clearly a fool.
> > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Same with HoL.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
>
>
>
> OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
>
>
>
> We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
>
>
>
> We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
>
>
>
> I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
>
> Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
>
> Dark times.
Whilst I agree that getting rid of the Electoral Commission is a terrible idea and sends all the wrong messages, getting rid of manifestos seems an eminently sensible idea given they are just a glossy way to lie to the electorate.
Manifesto pledges have been shown time and time again to be meaningless - all the more so if we are moving into an era of more coalition governments. Anyone who believes anything written in a manifesto these days is clearly a fool.
So we should just vote blindly, or for whichever party has the best logo?
> @rottenborough said: > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > > > Same with HoL. > > > > I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down. > > I assume at some later point we will hear a lot more about plans for direct democracy via the internet and people's votes and so on. > > Death penalty here we come.
Has there been any recent polling on the death enalty? I wouldn't think there is a majority to bringg it back.
> I think Leadsom is the only one who can mend the party and have a stab at mending the country. When she's elected, she can set out a timetable and framework for leaving - leaving with a renegotiated withdrawal agreement, or failing that, a managed no deal scenario.
>
> I think Cersei is the only one who can mend the 7 kingdoms.
>
> She can set out a timetable and framework for tyranny, or failing that, a managed Dragon scenario...
She's already dead under the rubble of the impregnable fortress.
> @Foxy said: > > @rottenborough said: > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > > > > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > > > > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > > > > > > > Same with HoL. > > > > > > > > I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down. > > > > I assume at some later point we will hear a lot more about plans for direct democracy via the internet and people's votes and so on. > > > > Death penalty here we come. > > Has there been any recent polling on the death enalty? I wouldn't think there is a majority to bringg it back.
Even if there isn't now: newspapers will start a campaign to bring it back for police killers and then the ball is rolling.
Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
>
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
>
>
> Same with HoL.
>
>
> He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
Dark times.
Given that they want to vote themselves out of existence, a manifesto would seem redundant.
You think? Dream on...
Farage and Banks won't be walking quietly off into the sunset if they achieved a No Deal Brexit... For a start they would be blaming the deepstate metropolitan establishment elite for all the woes No Deal Brexit brings.
I think a civil war was fought partly over the issue of whether the monarch could stop Parliament from sitting. Would not MPs petition the Speaker to reconvene Parliament if a PM attempted to abuse procedure in such a fashion?
How would the PM stop MPs from meeting if Speaker Bercow recalled them?
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
>
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
>
>
> Same with HoL.
>
>
> He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
Dark times.
Given that they want to vote themselves out of existence, a manifesto would seem redundant.
You think? Dream on...
Farage and Banks won't be walking quietly off into the sunset if they achieved a No Deal Brexit... For a start they would be blaming the deepstate metropolitan establishment elite for all the woes No Deal Brexit brings.
They went away last time.
Ah right, I wondered why Farage is no longer in the news.
> @Foxy said: > > @kle4 said: > > Finally received another election leaflet, this time from UKIP. So that's Brexit and UKIP, and nobody else. > > BXP, UKIP, LD and Labour so far for me, not had anything from the Greens or Cons.
> @rottenborough said: > > @Foxy said: > > > @rottenborough said: > > > > @GIN1138 said: > > > > > > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > > > > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > Same with HoL. > > > > > > > > > > > > I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down. > > > > > > I assume at some later point we will hear a lot more about plans for direct democracy via the internet and people's votes and so on. > > > > > > Death penalty here we come. > > > > Has there been any recent polling on the death enalty? I wouldn't think there is a majority to bringg it back. > > Even if there isn't now: newspapers will start a campaign to bring it back for police killers and then the ball is rolling.
Yes, then for political opponents of the regime...
How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here?
> @FrancisUrquhart said: > The Tories have left it a bit like on the old Euro election campaigning. I think todays launch might have gone down about as well as the dementia tax.
> @Foxy said: > > @FrancisUrquhart said: > > The Tories have left it a bit like on the old Euro election campaigning. I think todays launch might have gone down about as well as the dementia tax. > > Nothing Has Changed!
In practical terms perhaps, but the optics they have. Vote Tory and support May deal 4.0, even worse than all the other previous iterations.
I am glad I haven't pumped in money into the betting markets. I fear anybody who have backed the Tory vote to be >15% might be on for the kind of pounding I got over the Ryder Cup.
> @nichomar said: > > @stodge said: > > > @Cicero said: > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side.
Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
"Has there been any recent polling on the death penalty? I wouldn't think there is a majority to bring it back. " [No idea whose question that was]
CBA to google it but I read somewhere the other day that it tilted in 2014 from just in favour, to just against.
But you can bet your house on it being reintroduced in a referendum, because we now know how to do referendums. You'd paint a bus with "Let's take the £200,000 a year it costs to keep a lifer in jail, and give it to the NHS". Then if someone said "there's a bit more to it than that" you'd say "WHAT? So you prefer vile sick paedo killer pervs to the innocent children in Great Ormond Street?"
One incredible stat (and why British Steel among other steel producers are really in trouble)...China last year produced more steel in one year than the entire total production of steel in the UK from the start of time.
> @Benpointer said: > Genuine question: > > How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here? > > http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
Only one recent opinion poll there, and TNS last four gaps have been 9,8,8,9 so no recent improving trend? Brexit party share in EU election polling will be partly down to expected turnout differentials, Brexiteers on average feel stronger about Brexit than remainers, and have another chance to back the winner, which will make them feel good.
> @GIN1138 said: > > @Cyclefree said: > > > @Gallowgate said: > > > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission? > > > > > He is a dangerous man. > > > > > > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s. > > > > > > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out. > > > > > > > > Same with HoL. > > > > > > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”. > > OK but they'll have to be replaced with something? > > We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections? > > We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber? > > I'm genuinely interested to see where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
I think the intended replacement for all those is one N Farage backed by the Will of the People.
> @Benpointer said: > Genuine question: > > How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here? > > http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
A polarizing electorate. The highest share for TBP in the polls is still less than for Leave in the polls, but those still supporting Leave are now more extreme in the Leave they want to see (if we take the polls at face value)
> @DoubleD said: > > @nichomar said: > > > @stodge said: > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference? > > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side. > > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
I am finding similar interest in the LibDems amongst Labour voters in Leicester. I dont think it just a London phenomenon.
One incredible stat (and why British Steel among other steel producers are really in trouble)...China last year produced more steel in one year than the entire total production of steel in the UK from the start of time.
That is startling, even allowing for the fact that the population of China is over 20 times that of the UK.
I expect if it had been a GE the government would definitely find the money !
The problems for steel are building up . Over supply globally , orders down because customers don’t know whether they’ll be hit with a 20 % tariff if there’s a no deal .
The EU have placed extra tariffs on China but guess which country vetoed further action!
> @DoubleD said: > > @nichomar said: > > > @stodge said: > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference? > > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side. > > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
50% t/o in London, my previous t/o comment of a few days ago kind of forgot how many postals now get issued routinely, but now told it looks to be over 40% nationally.
Other than that, Yes this is what we are getting.- I hate to use the "surged too soon" meme, but if this is right then Lib Dems look like they will beat Labour and the Tories and will hit the highest percentage actually polled since about 1910. However I am still a sceptic so I'm discounting these highball figures somewhat. Still looks like an absolute thunderclap for the Lib Dems though.
> @Foxy said: > > @DoubleD said: > > > @nichomar said: > > > > @stodge said: > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > > > > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference? > > > > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side. > > > > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe. > > I am finding similar interest in the LibDems amongst Labour voters in Leicester. I dont think it just a London phenomenon.
And why do you think that would make them or the Commission more likely to help the British? You labour under the misapprehension that we are more important to the EU than in fact we are. None of these groups are in favour of exiting the EU. Indeed, some of them have expressly changed their stance on exit precisely because of the mess they have seen in Britain. They may wish to change the EU but we are being deluded in thinking that means they will change it to suit a departing member.
And the immigration these groups are concerned about is Muslim immigration into Europe not FoM within it. Some of these populists have already been in power - Salvini, for instance, and there is zero evidence that this has made any difference at all to the Commission’s stance or, indeed, Italy’s.
1. The commission's term is up this year. They will be gone;
2. If we are not important, then no-deal should be a certainty and should have happened by now;
3. It's not being suggested that they want to exit; it's being suggested that they are against the direction of travel, whether it's budgets, integration or immigration. They may well start seeking repatriation of powers - very much like a bunch of Camerons' c.2012-2016 - or engaging in obstruction and opposition.
4. This all poses a dilemma for Macron et al. A grouping that includes us, involves more obstructionism to integration. They may seek to remove the risk to their empire building;
5. The seat redistribution that some gain from upon our exit, and the power it bestows in allocating high ranking jobs, is all thrown into limbo while we are in;
6. I agree completely that freedom of movement is perceived as fine within the EU subject to what are essentially racial, religious and cultural curbs. The willingness to share new arrivals around is somewhat muted;
7. Similarly, the willingness to share cash around is also reluctant between rich and poor, north and south.
If the euro elections create domestic problems for our politicians, why wouldn't others feel similar problems in their own countries? Why wouldn't they be forced to shift policy stances if the votes say so?
I don't say it's likely that things would move, but I do not dismiss it as impossible.
> @Cicero said: > > @DoubleD said: > > > @nichomar said: > > > > @stodge said: > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > > > > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference? > > > > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side. > > > > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe. > > 50% t/o in London, my previous t/o comment of a few days ago kind of forgot how many postals now get issued routinely, but now told it looks to be over 40% nationally. > > Other than that, Yes this is what we are getting.- I hate to use the "surged too soon" meme, but if this is right then Lib Dems look like they will beat Labour and the Tories and will hit the highest percentage actually polled since about 1910. However I am still a sceptic so I'm discounting these highball figures somewhat. Still looks like an absolute thunderclap for the Lib Dems though.
It's hard when you are on the inside. I am a Tory canvasser and your figures are corroborated. I think 45% t/o. All depends on hard/softness of party votes. Lab could go as low as 15%. Libs as high as 20%. Tories seems to be steady 10-14%. Of course, if t/o different, all up in the air.
> @DoubleD said: > > @Cicero said: > > > @DoubleD said: > > > > @nichomar said: > > > > > @stodge said: > > > > > > @Cicero said: > > > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing. > > > > > > > > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway. > > > > > > > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome. > > > > > > > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference? > > > > > > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side. > > > > > > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe. > > > > 50% t/o in London, my previous t/o comment of a few days ago kind of forgot how many postals now get issued routinely, but now told it looks to be over 40% nationally. > > > > Other than that, Yes this is what we are getting.- I hate to use the "surged too soon" meme, but if this is right then Lib Dems look like they will beat Labour and the Tories and will hit the highest percentage actually polled since about 1910. However I am still a sceptic so I'm discounting these highball figures somewhat. Still looks like an absolute thunderclap for the Lib Dems though. > > It's hard when you are on the inside. I am a Tory canvasser and your figures are corroborated. I think 45% t/o. All depends on hard/softness of party votes. Lab could go as low as 15%. Libs as high as 20%. Tories seems to be steady 10-14%. Of course, if t/o different, all up in the air.
Yes, I have often found that higher turnout is shy Tories coming out, I guess that might be it, and the Conservatives end up polling ahead of the worst polls, however we are really not seeing the evidence for this, just a whole load of Lib Dems in surprising places. Well, two days left! Onwards and upwards!
> @Benpointer said: > Genuine question: > > How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here? > > http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
Polling opinions and polling voting intention are different. Turnout is a key difference.
To cut a long story short, your opinion is worthless unless you're willing to vote on its basis.
Comments
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-i-ll-vote-lib-dem-for-the-first-time-in-my-life-9x6mj82t0
We have been warned.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal.
> >
> > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 %
> > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10%
> > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
> >
> > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
>
> What about Boris calls an autumn election and we finish up with a Con/Brexit Party coalition?
Farage was threatening to campaign in Boris' seat last month, how long/stable would their love in be? How many of the Tory party would split off? Most of the cabinet would go rather than be the Farage party. I doubt that combination would do any better than the Tories have done alone in recent elections. Possibly they can become the largest grouping but there is no reason to expect them to have a majority.
> > @Gallowgate said:
>
> > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
>
> > He is a dangerous man.
>
>
>
> Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
>
>
> Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
>
>
> Same with HoL.
>
>
> He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
I'm genuinely interested to see where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
Hard leaver votes will be split between Con and BP and it won't help either of them that much.
Remainer and soft leaver votes much more likely to be split regionally imo: SNP in Scotland, PC in Wales, LD in the South West, Labour (since they are set against No Deal) most of the rest of England.
It would be interesting to see.
> > @nico67 said:
> > Cicero , regarding London was that just a London poll or just data from a national poll.
> >
> > I hope you’re right , I’d love to see the Lib Dems do well.
> >
>
> London, but it's apparently a private poll.
Ok , thanks . Can I just ask one more question when will the poll be coming out ?
https://youtu.be/SHhrZgojY1Q
Dark times.
Death penalty here we come.
> G. He or she may offer bellicose rantings about going off to Brussels and demanding change but Barnier and Juncker aren't going to budge. Tusk will say nice things but he knows the EU will go no further.
>
>
>
> There will be some changing of the guard within the EU institutions in the coming days and months. There is a possibility it might bring about some movement and some reflection on their side.
>
> The 2014 EU establishment was very much the old federalist style grouping. The 2019 version is likely to be more abrasive, polarised and have a bigger group of members pushing a eurosceptic message.
>
> I think there are probably a sizeable number of UK remainers who voted that way out of fear, rather than affection for the EU.
>
> There is little advocacy and seems to be very little appetite for a Macron/Verhofstadt style vision, so if we are in their parliament, we are probably best represented by those who do not want further expansion or integration and who will firmly hold the line as a bare minimum.
>
> I suspect half hearted but fearful remainers probably add at least 20% to the 50% who are Leavers and that real fondness for the EU is very much a minority pastime.
>
>
>
> I see that we’ve moved on from “German carmakers will save us” to “European populists will save us”.
>
> Well, firstly - the deal on the table that parliament keeps saying no to is 100% free trade with no freedom of movement. These 'freedoms' were supposed to be indivisible. Clearly they are, when they want the trade.
>
> As for european politics; https://europeelects.eu/2019/05/21/a-right-wing-surge-a-glimpse-into-the-new-eu-parliament/
>
> It looks to me like there is a grouping running into hundreds who are going to be elected that have an anti-EU axe to grind about either austerity, integration or immigration.
>
>
>
> And why do you think that would make them or the Commission more likely to help the British? You labour under the misapprehension that we are more important to the EU than in fact we are. None of these groups are in favour of exiting the EU. Indeed, some of them have expressly changed their stance on exit precisely because of the mess they have seen in Britain. They may wish to change the EU but we are being deluded in thinking that means they will change it to suit a departing member.
>
> And the immigration these groups are concerned about is Muslim immigration into Europe not FoM within it. Some of these populists have already been in power - Salvini, for instance, and there is zero evidence that this has made any difference at all to the Commission’s stance or, indeed, Italy’s.
Actually, I think the British voting public may well rather like a less integrationist, islamophobic, new Euro Parliament, though I expect the Greens and Left Populists to also do well across the continent. Ironically as we leave it is likely the EU will be more to our taste.
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Gallowgate said:
>
> >
>
> > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
>
> >
>
> > > He is a dangerous man.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Same with HoL.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
>
>
>
> OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
>
>
>
> We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
>
>
>
> We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
>
>
>
> I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
>
> Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
>
> Dark times.
LOL - the absence of a manifesto = dark times. Most people vote without any reference at all to a manifesto. Indeed, most probably don't vote for any particular policy. It has more to do with feelings and identity. For those who'll vote for Farage, they don't need a manifesto.
> > @noneoftheabove said:
> > How do no dealers see themselves winning? Or does winning not matter as long as they can argue for purity? I would have thought a referendum is by far the most likely way to actually get no deal.
> >
> > No deal voted through current parliament simply because it is Boris PM? < 3 %
> > Boris PM polling record lows calls a GE in time for October and gets substantial majority to overcome any dissent? <10%
> > No deal wins a referendum? 30-40%
> >
> > Are there any no dealers screaming for a referendum? Why not?
>
> No dealers, as a transition period, believe it is the quickest way to get an FTA and bilaterals with the EU (and yes I fully understand that their are other views).
> So the no dealers believe that as the election comes ever closer the Tory party will move towards this position to be competitive at the next GE.
I can easily see it becoming the position of the Tory party (well their leader, neither Tory or Labour can sustain a single policy across their coalitions of MPs). I am baffled as to how they think they can get the UK to no deal?
A reality check, the Tories are polling 10% in Euros and 20% in GE. All majorities in the last 30 years have been won by politicians in the political centre. Why are they going to get a majority big enough to force through no deal against the wishes of at least half the existing Tory MPs? (Probably more in private).
> > @Cyclefree said:
>
> > > @Gallowgate said:
>
> >
>
> > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
>
> >
>
> > > He is a dangerous man.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > Same with HoL.
>
> >
>
> >
>
> > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
>
>
>
> OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
>
>
>
> We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
>
>
>
> We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
>
>
>
> I'm genuinely interested to seeing where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
>
> Don't hold your breath - the BP also plan to do away with manifestos iirc. Let's not bother our voters with what we might actually do if in power.
>
> Dark times.
Whilst I agree that getting rid of the Electoral Commission is a terrible idea and sends all the wrong messages, getting rid of manifestos seems an eminently sensible idea given they are just a glossy way to lie to the electorate.
Manifesto pledges have been shown time and time again to be meaningless - all the more so if we are moving into an era of more coalition governments. Anyone who believes anything written in a manifesto these days is clearly a fool.
>
> Given that they want to vote themselves out of existence, a manifesto would seem redundant.
The perfect pretext: "Oh no, we don't want power. We just want to take power back!"
> I think Leadsom is the only one who can mend the party and have a stab at mending the country. When she's elected, she can set out a timetable and framework for leaving - leaving with a renegotiated withdrawal agreement, or failing that, a managed no deal scenario.
>
> I think Cersei is the only one who can mend the 7 kingdoms.
>
> She can set out a timetable and framework for tyranny, or failing that, a managed Dragon scenario...
She's already dead under the rubble of the impregnable fortress.
What actionable grievance do you think a recently set up party can have against its regulator visiting it and giving it a clean bill of health?
(BTW I mentioned my experience so that readers could know that it was based on some experience of entities under investigation dealing with authorities dealing rather than simply made up. It is for others to assess whether what I say is of value. I am no more - and probably less - of an authority than many others on this forum, plenty of whom have tremendous knowledge and experience, one of the reasons it is such an interesting place to debate matters.)
Anyway time to go off and listen to Sumption’s Reith Lectures. Night all.
Farage and Banks won't be walking quietly off into the sunset if they achieved a No Deal Brexit... For a start they would be blaming the deepstate metropolitan establishment elite for all the woes No Deal Brexit brings.
> > @GIN1138 said:
>
> > > @Gallowgate said:
>
> > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
>
> > > He is a dangerous man.
>
> >
>
> > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
>
> >
>
> > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
>
> >
>
> > Same with HoL.
>
>
>
> I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
>
> I assume at some later point we will hear a lot more about plans for direct democracy via the internet and people's votes and so on.
>
> Death penalty here we come.
Has there been any recent polling on the death enalty? I wouldn't think there is a majority to bringg it back.
Parliament UK says Queen does this, on advice from Privy Council.
We’ve had nothing newer than polls conducted upto 17 May .
> > @rottenborough said:
> > > @GIN1138 said:
> >
> > > > @Gallowgate said:
> >
> > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> >
> > > > He is a dangerous man.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
> >
> > >
> >
> > > Same with HoL.
> >
> >
> >
> > I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
> >
> > I assume at some later point we will hear a lot more about plans for direct democracy via the internet and people's votes and so on.
> >
> > Death penalty here we come.
>
> Has there been any recent polling on the death enalty? I wouldn't think there is a majority to bringg it back.
Even if there isn't now: newspapers will start a campaign to bring it back for police killers and then the ball is rolling.
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130909398031904769
>
> Parliament UK says Queen does this, on advice from Privy Council.
>
>
Not a chance in my view. A couple of days perhaps, but weeks - no.
> https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130909398031904769
>
> Parliament UK says Queen does this, on advice from Privy Council.
>
I think a civil war was fought partly over the issue of whether the monarch could stop Parliament from sitting. Would not MPs petition the Speaker to reconvene Parliament if a PM attempted to abuse procedure in such a fashion?
How would the PM stop MPs from meeting if Speaker Bercow recalled them?
> > @kle4 said:
> > Finally received another election leaflet, this time from UKIP. So that's Brexit and UKIP, and nobody else.
>
> BXP, UKIP, LD and Labour so far for me, not had anything from the Greens or Cons.
Nothing yet from Con or LDs.
> > @rottenborough said:
> > https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1130909398031904769
> >
> > Parliament UK says Queen does this, on advice from Privy Council.
> >
> >
>
> Not a chance in my view. A couple of days perhaps, but weeks - no.
Agreed could you imagine the furore .
> > @Foxy said:
> > > @rottenborough said:
> > > > @GIN1138 said:
> > >
> > > > > @Gallowgate said:
> > >
> > > > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> > >
> > > > > He is a dangerous man.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
> > >
> > > >
> > >
> > > > Same with HoL.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > I should think it slightly worrying that he is so enraged by them he wants to tear them down and does not even care to say what he wants to replace them with - it speaks to his motivation being not reforming things to make them better, but just taking them down.
> > >
> > > I assume at some later point we will hear a lot more about plans for direct democracy via the internet and people's votes and so on.
> > >
> > > Death penalty here we come.
> >
> > Has there been any recent polling on the death enalty? I wouldn't think there is a majority to bringg it back.
>
> Even if there isn't now: newspapers will start a campaign to bring it back for police killers and then the ball is rolling.
Yes, then for political opponents of the regime...
How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here?
http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
on and on and on.
> The Tories have left it a bit like on the old Euro election campaigning. I think todays launch might have gone down about as well as the dementia tax.
Nothing Has Changed!
> > @FrancisUrquhart said:
> > The Tories have left it a bit like on the old Euro election campaigning. I think todays launch might have gone down about as well as the dementia tax.
>
> Nothing Has Changed!
In practical terms perhaps, but the optics they have. Vote Tory and support May deal 4.0, even worse than all the other previous iterations.
I am glad I haven't pumped in money into the betting markets. I fear anybody who have backed the Tory vote to be >15% might be on for the kind of pounding I got over the Ryder Cup.
> > @stodge said:
> > > @Cicero said:
> > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > >
> > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> >
> > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
>
> Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side.
Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
CBA to google it but I read somewhere the other day that it tilted in 2014 from just in favour, to just against.
But you can bet your house on it being reintroduced in a referendum, because we now know how to do referendums. You'd paint a bus with "Let's take the £200,000 a year it costs to keep a lifer in jail, and give it to the NHS". Then if someone said "there's a bit more to it than that" you'd say "WHAT? So you prefer vile sick paedo killer pervs to the innocent children in Great Ormond Street?"
I don't like referendums.
> I would have expected more polling to come out .
>
> We’ve had nothing newer than polls conducted upto 17 May .
Probably waiting for Eve Of Poll Polls tomorrow?
> https://twitter.com/jcullinane86/status/1130935428087992320
British Steel going into administration the day before the elections is interesting timing, for a totemic industry of the British rustbelt.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/jcullinane86/status/1130935428087992320
>
> British Steel going into administration the day before the elections is interesting timing, for a totemic industry of the British rustbelt.
If only Jamie Oliver had called himself British Steel.
> Genuine question:
>
> How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here?
>
> http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
Only one recent opinion poll there, and TNS last four gaps have been 9,8,8,9 so no recent improving trend? Brexit party share in EU election polling will be partly down to expected turnout differentials, Brexiteers on average feel stronger about Brexit than remainers, and have another chance to back the winner, which will make them feel good.
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > > @Gallowgate said:
> >
> > > He wants to dump the Electoral Commission?
> >
> > > He is a dangerous man.
> >
> >
> >
> > Wanting to replace the electoral commission doesn't make someone "dangerous" - Its a relatively new quango dating back to the 1990s.
> >
> >
> >
> > Now if he replaced it with something over which he had direct control then that might be dangerous, but until we see what he proposes to replace it with then the jury is out.
> >
> >
> >
> > Same with HoL.
> >
> >
> > He’s not saying “replace”. He’s saying “dump”.
>
> OK but they'll have to be replaced with something?
>
> We'll have to have someone or some thing that oversees elections?
>
> We'll have to have some sort of revising chamber?
>
> I'm genuinely interested to see where the Brexit Party goes with all this (and electoral reform/PR) once the EU elections are out of the way.
I think the intended replacement for all those is one N Farage backed by the Will of the People.
> Genuine question:
>
> How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here?
>
> http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
A polarizing electorate. The highest share for TBP in the polls is still less than for Leave in the polls, but those still supporting Leave are now more extreme in the Leave they want to see (if we take the polls at face value)
> > @nichomar said:
> > > @stodge said:
> > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > > >
> > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> > >
> > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
> >
> > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
>
> Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side.
>
> Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
I am finding similar interest in the LibDems amongst Labour voters in Leicester. I dont think it just a London phenomenon.
> > @Scott_P said:
> > https://twitter.com/jcullinane86/status/1130935428087992320
>
> British Steel going into administration the day before the elections is interesting timing, for a totemic industry of the British rustbelt.
I expect if it had been a GE the government would definitely find the money !
The problems for steel are building up . Over supply globally , orders down because customers don’t know whether they’ll be hit with a 20 % tariff if there’s a no deal .
The EU have placed extra tariffs on China but guess which country vetoed further action!
I don’t see why the government should loan the money and leave Greybull with the equity.
> > @nichomar said:
> > > @stodge said:
> > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > > >
> > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> > >
> > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
> >
> > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
>
> Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side.
>
> Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
50% t/o in London, my previous t/o comment of a few days ago kind of forgot how many postals now get issued routinely, but now told it looks to be over 40% nationally.
Other than that, Yes this is what we are getting.- I hate to use the "surged too soon" meme, but if this is right then Lib Dems look like they will beat Labour and the Tories and will hit the highest percentage actually polled since about 1910. However I am still a sceptic so I'm discounting these highball figures somewhat. Still looks like an absolute thunderclap for the Lib Dems though.
> > @DoubleD said:
> > > @nichomar said:
> > > > @stodge said:
> > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > > > >
> > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> > > >
> > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
> > >
> > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
> >
> > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side.
> >
> > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
>
> I am finding similar interest in the LibDems amongst Labour voters in Leicester. I dont think it just a London phenomenon.
What are odds on Libs coming 2nd? Possible.
2. If we are not important, then no-deal should be a certainty and should have happened by now;
3. It's not being suggested that they want to exit; it's being suggested that they are against the direction of travel, whether it's budgets, integration or immigration. They may well start seeking repatriation of powers - very much like a bunch of Camerons' c.2012-2016 - or engaging in obstruction and opposition.
4. This all poses a dilemma for Macron et al. A grouping that includes us, involves more obstructionism to integration. They may seek to remove the risk to their empire building;
5. The seat redistribution that some gain from upon our exit, and the power it bestows in allocating high ranking jobs, is all thrown into limbo while we are in;
6. I agree completely that freedom of movement is perceived as fine within the EU subject to what are essentially racial, religious and cultural curbs. The willingness to share new arrivals around is somewhat muted;
7. Similarly, the willingness to share cash around is also reluctant between rich and poor, north and south.
If the euro elections create domestic problems for our politicians, why wouldn't others feel similar problems in their own countries? Why wouldn't they be forced to shift policy stances if the votes say so?
I don't say it's likely that things would move, but I do not dismiss it as impossible.
> > @DoubleD said:
> > > @nichomar said:
> > > > @stodge said:
> > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > > > >
> > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> > > >
> > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
> > >
> > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
> >
> > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side.
> >
> > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
>
> 50% t/o in London, my previous t/o comment of a few days ago kind of forgot how many postals now get issued routinely, but now told it looks to be over 40% nationally.
>
> Other than that, Yes this is what we are getting.- I hate to use the "surged too soon" meme, but if this is right then Lib Dems look like they will beat Labour and the Tories and will hit the highest percentage actually polled since about 1910. However I am still a sceptic so I'm discounting these highball figures somewhat. Still looks like an absolute thunderclap for the Lib Dems though.
It's hard when you are on the inside. I am a Tory canvasser and your figures are corroborated. I think 45% t/o. All depends on hard/softness of party votes. Lab could go as low as 15%. Libs as high as 20%. Tories seems to be steady 10-14%. Of course, if t/o different, all up in the air.
> > @Cicero said:
> > > @DoubleD said:
> > > > @nichomar said:
> > > > > @stodge said:
> > > > > > @Cicero said:
> > > > > > Just read some London data which I can scarcely believe... Huge t/o projected, possibly over 50%. Lib Dems polling in numbers I have never seen in 40 years of campaigning... In London! If these are anything close to right something astonishing is brewing.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Might be time for a cheeky flutter on Lib Dems over 20% anyway.
> > > > >
> > > > > The mood in LD circles even here in the unlikely fastness of East London is borderline euphoric. Apparently plenty of support even in Dagenham, a place not visited by LDs for the better part of a generation. I still find the prospect of topping the poll in London hard to believe and a close second to Labour the more likely outcome.
> > > >
> > > > Whilst we can enjoy the evening will it make any difference?
> > >
> > > Certainly the insiders I spoke to in Lab party believe Libs will come first in London. And they might come 2nd overall. That is Lab talking. Now you have it from Lib side.
> > >
> > > Turnout is so hard to read, but if (IF) people are telling the truth then turnout about 45%. You think bigger than 50%. Maybe.
> >
> > 50% t/o in London, my previous t/o comment of a few days ago kind of forgot how many postals now get issued routinely, but now told it looks to be over 40% nationally.
> >
> > Other than that, Yes this is what we are getting.- I hate to use the "surged too soon" meme, but if this is right then Lib Dems look like they will beat Labour and the Tories and will hit the highest percentage actually polled since about 1910. However I am still a sceptic so I'm discounting these highball figures somewhat. Still looks like an absolute thunderclap for the Lib Dems though.
>
> It's hard when you are on the inside. I am a Tory canvasser and your figures are corroborated. I think 45% t/o. All depends on hard/softness of party votes. Lab could go as low as 15%. Libs as high as 20%. Tories seems to be steady 10-14%. Of course, if t/o different, all up in the air.
Yes, I have often found that higher turnout is shy Tories coming out, I guess that might be it, and the Conservatives end up polling ahead of the worst polls, however we are really not seeing the evidence for this, just a whole load of Lib Dems in surprising places. Well, two days left! Onwards and upwards!
> Genuine question:
>
> How do we square the opinion poll rise of BP with the seemingly persistent improving trend for Remain versus Leave in, er... opinion polls, as shown here?
>
> http://britainelects.com/polling/europe/
Polling opinions and polling voting intention are different.
Turnout is a key difference.
To cut a long story short, your opinion is worthless unless you're willing to vote on its basis.
> a managed no deal scenario.
Meaningless